COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778)

[tarcone]

Italy has an old population that is close also. China is spread out and not as old.

I imagine that is in play.

[Brian Swartz]

I don't believe the China numbers either, but they didn't actually get 14k cases in a day. What they did is expand their criteria in the testing for what constituted a reported case - and that caused a bump in the numbers on that instance.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Sen. Loeffler from GA also dumped a bunch of stock after a coronavirus briefing. Maybe this was the reason the briefings were confidential.

She also bought a teleconferencing stock which happened to go up. What are the odds.

Fucking traitors.

[Jas_lov]

Newsom issues state wide stay at home order in California.

[JPhillips]

Inhofe sold a few hundred thousand in stocks a couple of days after the Senate briefing.

Run them all, GOP or DEM, out of the senate.

[Jas_lov]

Why are Senators and Congressman allowed to own stock? They should have to sell it before taking office.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

Newsom issues state wide stay at home order in California.

People are scared about food shortages, I think if the internet or netflix goes down all hell is going to break lose.

[GoldenEagle]

China doesn't give a fuck about saving lives. Any reason they ride in like a savior is strictly for economical reasons.

[Edward64]

Statewide "stay at home" for CA. But apparently you can still go out but stay 6ft away (but I sure wish everyone has masks even though the experts initially said they "don't work"). Good bet that NY will follow soon.

California Governor Announces Statewide Order To Stay At Home | HuffPost

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) announced a statewide order on Thursday mandating that Californians stay at home except for essential work and errands due to the coronavirus pandemic.

California, which is home to approximately 40 million people, will be the first state in the nation under such an order. The policy, aimed at curbing the rate of infection, goes into effect Thursday evening.

“We are confident that the people in the state of California will abide by it,” Newsom said in a Thursday news conference.

Under the stay at home, or “shelter-in-place,” policy, Californians are permitted to leave their residences for errands such as going to the grocery store or picking up a prescription at a pharmacy. Employees of businesses deemed essential are also permitted to work outside the home. And residents are still permitted to go for walks outside, so long as they practice safe social distancing.

Details
Stay home except for essential needs - Coronavirus COVID-19 Response

[Edward64]

A possible answer why Italy mortality is so out of whack.

The dailymail isn't the best of sources but it claims this is from "a study by the country's health service".

I'm not sure I buy it though. In the US, I'm willing to bet that majority of our elderly also have some sort of pre-existing conditions also. Who really knows right now but thought I'd share the blurb below.

Coronavirus Italy: 99% of patients killed 'had existing illnesses' | Daily Mail Online

99 per cent of coronavirus deaths in Italy are patients with existing medical problems, a study by the country's health service has found.

Research into 355 deaths found that only three of the victims, 0.8 per cent, had been clear of illnesses before they were infected.

Nearly half of them - 48.5 per cent - already had three or even more health conditions before they were diagnosed with Covid-19.

Another 25.6 per cent had two other 'pathologies', while 25.1 per cent had one.
:
:
Some 76.1 per cent of the patients who died of Covid-19 had previously had problems with high arterial blood pressure, the study found.

More than a third - 35.5 per cent - had diabetes, while 33.0 per cent had suffered from ischemic heart disease.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Edward64

A possible answer why Italy mortality is so out of whack.

The dailymail isn't the best of sources but it claims this is from "a study by the country's health service".

I'm not sure I buy it though. In the US, I'm willing to bet that majority of our elderly also have some sort of pre-existing conditions also. Who really knows right now but thought I'd share the blurb below.

Coronavirus Italy: 99% of patients killed 'had existing illnesses' | Daily Mail Online

What's considered a health condition? Most people over 65 have something. Heck, s good portion of adults have something that could be considered a health condition

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Danny

What's considered a health condition? Most people over 65 have something. Heck, s good portion of adults have something that could be considered a health condition

The article said the below. I don't know how to translate or put it in context for the US.

Some 76.1 per cent of the patients who died of Covid-19 had previously had problems with high arterial blood pressure, the study found.

More than a third - 35.5 per cent - had diabetes, while 33.0 per cent had suffered from ischemic heart disease.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by Danny

What's considered a health condition? Most people over 65 have something. Heck, s good portion of adults have something that could be considered a health condition

Yeah I would think American numbers for high blood pressure wouldn't be that far off the Italians.

[RainMaker]

63% of people over 60 in this country have high blood pressure. It is even pretty high in younger groups.

[molson]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

China doesn't give a fuck about saving lives. Any reason they ride in like a savior is strictly for economical reasons.

That's a bit broad and toxic IMO, like Trump relishing calling this "Chinese Flu" every chance he gets.

There are doctors in China who literally gave their lives for this. (including the doctor who was initially most aggressive about warning others.) And policies and treatment implemented which has saved many lives. And there's respected American doctors telling us to look to the things the Chinese did well. And I haven't read any credible accounts contradicting the general story that they've gotten on the other side of this. But because it's "China" none of this news or data and measures taken count.

So it's frustrating to see people automatically dismissing the Chinese data and experience based on their own biases. But this is also a thread where I've read that old people are to blame because they all watch Fox News apparently, so I guess that's just where we are now.

[Edward64]

FWIW new Pew poll. More good info in the link but thought to share the below section.

However, I'm not sure how to reconcile my thoughts to the stats yet.

Americans See Multiple Threats From the Coronavirus – and Concerns Are Growing | Pew Research Center

Has the coronavirus been exaggerated – or not taken seriously enough?
Americans generally say that the public health officials at the CDC have gotten the risks of the coronavirus about right. But far fewer say that about the news media, Donald Trump and congressional Democrats.

A majority (63%) says public health officials at the CDC have gotten the risks for the coronavirus about right. Relatively few say they have exaggerated the risks (21%) or not taken them seriously enough (15%).

By contrast, a majority (62%) says the news media have exaggerated the risks from the coronavirus outbreak. Just 30% say they have handled the risks appropriately, and 8% say they have not taken the risks seriously enough.

Critiques of Trump’s response run in the opposite direction. About half (52%) say either that Trump has not taken the risks seriously enough (23%) or that he hasn’t taken them seriously at all (29%); 37% say he’s gotten the risks about right.

When it comes to Democratic leaders in Congress, about as many say they have exaggerated the risks (40%) as say they have gotten them about right (38%); 19% say they haven’t taken the risks seriously enough.

[kingfc22]

That snippet is useless without the actual data points right beneath it in the article. The Fox News crowd thinks it’s a hoax and believes Trump has been all over it since day 1.

Meanwhile the thoughts on the CDC are equal across the board since there is no Trump bias on that subject.

[miami_fan]

Air Force moves 500K coronavirus test swabs from Italy to US | TheHill

Did Italy give us these swabs? Did we buy them? Did we take them?

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

China doesn't give a fuck about saving lives. Any reason they ride in like a savior is strictly for economical reasons.

What does that say about us considering how far behind we are medically than them?

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Molson

it's frustrating to see people automatically dismissing the Chinese data and experience based on their own biases.

I think a lot of it based more on the data of what we do know about how China's government operates in general, and what we know they did in this specific instance. From my perspective, I'd totally agree with you that many Chinese doctors were and are heroes, esp. those who gave their lives combating COV-19 when it was at it's most potent and least understood. I also agree that we should listen to medical professionals about what they did well. What I don't agree with is the idea they have any kind of record which justifies confidence in their transparency with reporting numbers, including how they covered up the outbreak initially.

This isn't an indictment of the Chinese people; it is an indictment of their political system and leaders as a whole.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Air Force moves 500K coronavirus test swabs from Italy to US | TheHill

Did Italy give us these swabs? Did we buy them? Did we take them?

We bought them from a company in Italy that makes them.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Just got home from Gatlinburg, TN. If ever there was a thought that Trump wasnt winning the 2020 election, that thought is erased.

I heard 3 theories from shop owners. I have no idea who these people were. I was just a dude in there shop. The theories were pretty much the same. The dems started the panic through the media to ruin the economy which in turn kills Trumps reelection. And one blamed the Chinese, saying they started it because of the trade war.

So, here we are. A country divided. I fall in the middle. My MIL and sister are former nurses who are saying this is legit and you should stay away from people, to these people in Gatlinburg.

All I know is that this country is so far divided, it will never come back.

What part of this is a country divided? Idiots on the right will say stuff, idiots on the left will say stuff, and at the end of the day the 15-20% of us who actually pay attention will hopefully swing the election.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

What does that say about us considering how far behind we are medically than them?

Please stop trolling.

[thesloppy]

Presidents have historically gotten large approval bumps after crises, so I suppose there's a tiny chance Trump could epicly fuck this up for 6+ months and somehow still come out with better approval than ever on election day (tho at this point a ~6 month resolution seems like it would be worth practically any political cost).

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Please stop trolling.

This isn't trolling. How China and South Korea handles this is vastly superior to us.

Their hospitals are segregated with regular patients and virus patients. So if you have any symptoms at all, you show up to this special hospital wing. You get a CAT scan and tests done and know the results in a couple hours. Everyone in this hospital is covered head to toe in protective gear. This means their doctors and nurses don't get sick at the same rate as ours.

Positive results aren't sent home to infect their families. They are sent to housing where they recover. You can't enter the country, hot spot neighborhoods, or most buildings without having your temperature taken.

South Korea early on tracked everyone they could that was exposed, tested them, and isolated them. They also don't let you enter buildings or neighborhoods without your temperature being taken. They have sophisticated alerts sent to your phone that will tell you where an infected person had been thus telling you whether you need to quarantine yourself because you might have been exposed.

In this country we still can't test people. Well unless you're famous. Results can take a week to get back if you're one of the lucky few. A positive result doesn't come with government isolation, you're just told to isolate your self, scouts honor. We haven't gotten close to peaking and hospitals are already being told to use bandanas for when they inevitably run out of masks.

China botched things early on no doubt, but they recovered incredibly well. South Korea did an amazing job too. I don't know how you can look at those countries and think we're in the same ballpark when it comes to preparedness. It helps they had to deal with SARS back in the day and learned a lot, but there is no reason for us to not have researched their strategies and replicated it here.

[RainMaker]

Here's Peggy Noonan who sure seems like she has coronavirus talking about her troubles getting a test (and the long wait for results).

WSJ columnist Peggy Noonan has been sick for 2 weeks.

101 fever.

Cough.

Chills.

And she struggled for days to get a #COVID19 testhttps://t.co/Iw7E7XZGnX pic.twitter.com/YeCLrKCuDG

— Bill Grueskin (@BGrueskin) March 20, 2020

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Air Force moves 500K coronavirus test swabs from Italy to US | TheHill

Did Italy give us these swabs? Did we buy them? Did we take them?

We flat out stole them. We sent Nick Cage and Sylvester Stallone on a daring raid into heavily infested Italy to fly a plane of test kits back to their grateful country, cause 'Merica!

[Edward64]

Updated title to "a non-political thread as of Mar 20".

There's going to be grey and overlaps but do the best you can.

To discourage, don't get sucked into the trolling and just ignore. If you want to make a political statement, take it to the Trump or Democratic thread. If you feel a compulsion to still talk politics here, consider creating your own Coronavirus thread.

Yes, I'm guilty of this as well. Let's all start over with a clean slate.

[Edward64]

Small comfort to the family but at least the record is set straight.

I don't get why an ophthalmologist would have known about this (maybe by talking to other Drs)?

Coronavirus Whistleblower's Family Gets Apology From China Weeks After He Died : Coronavirus Live Updates : NPR

Li Wenliang, the ophthalmologist whose early warnings about the coronavirus earned him a reprimand from Chinese authorities, is finally receiving justice — albeit posthumously. Authorities in the country are apologizing to his family and dropping their reprimand, six weeks after his death from the disease caused by the virus.

Widely known as a whistleblower who spoke up about the outbreak in the city of Wuhan, China, the 34-year-old doctor was initially punished by local authorities. They said he was "spreading rumors" in early January, after he had tried to warn others about the emergence of the novel coronavirus that has now become a global pandemic.

[Edward64]

Some good news this morning. According to MarketWatch tickers ...

Tracked European markets are all green, most with 2%+ (no Italy though). Asia markets (except for Nikkei) are all green and easily beating 2%+. The US big three futures are 1.5%+.

I think this is the first time in a long time (3 weeks) that I've seen this. For context, the market dropped approx 50% in the Great Recession. Our low (so far) has been 30%.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

Presidents have historically gotten large approval bumps after crises, so I suppose there's a tiny chance Trump could epicly fuck this up for 6+ months and somehow still come out with better approval than ever on election day (tho at this point a ~6 month resolution seems like it would be worth practically any political cost).

I'm pretty sure that even if this went as smoothly as possible from here on out and we did a 4-8 week quarantine with aggressive test, treat, track (ala the Korean model), the economic fallout of the quarantine and the number dead will still weigh heavily on poll numbers.


SI

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Here's Peggy Noonan who sure seems like she has coronavirus talking about her troubles getting a test (and the long wait for results).

WSJ columnist Peggy Noonan has been sick for 2 weeks.

101 fever.

Cough.

Chills.

And she struggled for days to get a #COVID19 testhttps://t.co/Iw7E7XZGnX pic.twitter.com/YeCLrKCuDG

— Bill Grueskin (@BGrueskin) March 20, 2020

Those two questions exist solely so they can keep up the lie that everyone who needs/wants to be tested can be tested.

It's spreading in the US via community spread and seems to be most contagious before someone develops systems. Asking if you have traveled internationally and if you have been in contact with a patient is as relevant now as asking your astrological sign.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by molson

And congrats to anyone that was fired up about people dying that you need to brag about that now. I've noticed that some people seem super excited about worst-case scenarios.

I know this is not political, but responding to a post in this thread.

I believe 100% that this will be the tactic taken against the Dem candidate. "They're happy more people died, they can hold it against Trump!"

100%. It's coming.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Those two questions exist solely so they can keep up the lie that everyone who needs/wants to be tested can be tested.

It's spreading in the US via community spread and seems to be most contagious before someone develops systems. Asking if you have traveled internationally and if you have been in contact with a patient is as relevant now as asking your astrological sign.

I think it was Fauci or Birx that said (paraphrasing) don't get tested unless you have symptoms because we don't have enough test kits/capability right now. Once we are ramped up my guess is they would want to do more testing regardless of symptoms to get a better understanding of the spread.

Somewhat related, earlier in the crisis there were talking heads that said don't buy masks because masks don't work. It was pretty clear to me back then that masks do work, maybe not 100%, maybe only 25% but still better than nothing (and oh btw, China and SK were using masks). The narrative have shifted to now don't get a mask because our healthcare providers need it more than you since they are on the frontlines. Once we have mask production ramped up and we are still in the thick of this mess (hopefully the mess has receded but doubtful), I fully expect them to ask everyone to wear a mask.

Both times I believe the experts & government have not been forthright with us initially.

[JPhillips]

GOLDMAN SACHS: "We now forecast quarter-on-quarter annualized growth rates of -6% in Q1, -24% in Q2, +12% in Q3, and +10% in Q4 ... full-year growth at -3.8% on an annual average basis... we estimate a 5.5pp increase in the U3 unemployment rate to a 9% peak in coming quarters"

Damn.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Damn.

There's the recession.

I guess they are optimistic things will begin to return to normal (or the new normal) this summer/Jul.

[CraigSca]

Originally Posted by Edward64

There's the recession.

I guess they are optimistic things will begin to return to normal (or the new normal) this summer/Jul.

Yeah. Is it wrong to think this is potentially good news after hearing talk of 20% unemployment? To hear that we will be bouncing back in Q3 is a surprise.

[dubb93]

N95 masks work. The other masks will not work very well if at all against this or the flu. We generally use those to protect against blood splatter and/or mucous that may come flying during a procedure(think suctioning a trach or something similar). They do not filter out droplets in the air very well though. The healthcare facility I work at had exactly 3 N95 masks available the last day I worked and I was informed that our supplier is not able to supply us with anymore. The spread of influenza and RSV among healthcare workers could skyrocket as well as COVID-19 without these masks. We are also rationing hand sanitizer. It takes multiple signatures to get a bottle that must be returned at the end of the shift. It’s like this virus has set our healthcare system back 100 years to a time where PPE was not a thing and we struggle to even keep our hands clean.

As a real example I was given report on a patient Wednesday who was going to be moved to one of my rooms that had Influenza A. When I asked about N95s was when I was given that information. Eventually after I asked questions about who would pay for my own Influenza case as a result of treating him without PPE he was transferred to a different facility.

[Ryche]

We have one county in Colorado (San Miguel which has Telluride ski resorts) under a shelter in place order. No cases have been confirmed there by testing but several people hospitalized.

[NobodyHere]

My coworkers are spreading rumors that DeWine is going to shut down Ohio today.

We've also started a guessing game on how many confirmed cases there will be in the state. I've won the last 3 days

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Sen. Loeffler from GA also dumped a bunch of stock after a coronavirus briefing. Maybe this was the reason the briefings were confidential.

Though Loeffler is saying that all her assets are in a blind trust. If true, then I would give her the benefit of the doubt (and I'm no fan of Loeffler).

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Though Loeffler is saying that all her assets are in a blind trust. If true, then I would give her the benefit of the doubt (and I'm no fan of Loeffler).

I haven't seen her say blind trust. What I saw was her saying neither she or her husband made trades, that a third party buys and sells. The question, then, is did she or her husband advise or direct the third party in any way. If she can show proof of a blind trust, good for her, but she needs to clarify the rules on her investment portfolio.

[RainMaker]

Here is a good article with a best and worst case scenario.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/o....co/tuW24BkM1I

[spleen1015]

As far as Loeffler goes, I tend to believe what she is saying because her husband is the CEO of the company that owns the NYSE. I don't see that guy doing something like this.

She was on FoxNews this morning and she said all of her trades were 3rd party trades.

The one person from CA has claimed the same thing, 3rd party trades.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I haven't seen her say blind trust. What I saw was her saying neither she or her husband made trades, that a third party buys and sells. The question, then, is did she or her husband advise or direct the third party in any way. If she can show proof of a blind trust, good for her, but she needs to clarify the rules on her investment portfolio.

Time to send Martha Stewart to jail!

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I haven't seen her say blind trust. What I saw was her saying neither she or her husband made trades, that a third party buys and sells. The question, then, is did she or her husband advise or direct the third party in any way. If she can show proof of a blind trust, good for her, but she needs to clarify the rules on her investment portfolio.

Right, she needs to show evidence that this wasn't something she effected. Her explanation buys her a bit of leeway, but now to verify (to paraphrase Reagan).

[RainMaker]

Her blind trust has impeccable timing and the wherewithal to acquire shares in a teleconferencing company that is flourishing in a pandemic.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Some good news this morning. According to MarketWatch tickers ...

Tracked European markets are all green, most with 2%+ (no Italy though). Asia markets (except for Nikkei) are all green and easily beating 2%+. The US big three futures are 1.5%+.

I think this is the first time in a long time (3 weeks) that I've seen this. For context, the market dropped approx 50% in the Great Recession. Our low (so far) has been 30%.

It's Friday, and the Dow is up about 400 points so far this morning. Probably another "bear market bounce." If this pattern continues, expect another huge drop on Monday.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

It's Friday, and the Dow is up about 400 points so far this morning. Probably another "bear market bounce." If this pattern continues, expect another huge drop on Monday.

Yeah, I'm not expecting any sustained rallies until we get more good news (or get the big bad news out of the way) ... wait WTF, we are in the red now !!

[Edward64]

First Bay Area "shelter-in-place", then CA state "stay-at-home", and now New York state "on-pause" (which stands for Policies that Assure Uniform Safety for Everyone).

Can we standardize already? They all mean remote work, remote school, stay at home as much as possible, but oh btw, if you want to go out and exercise stay 6ft social distancing.