06-07-2011, 08:41 AM | #1701 |
College Starter
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Houston, TX
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Screw it. I'm relatively happy with a vote for the first time in several days, so I might as well put it out there.
VOTE HOOPSGUY |
06-07-2011, 09:47 AM | #1702 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Vote hoopsguy
He's been very helpful but hasn't been any help. Also suspicious of Chubby and J23 as Danny voters. |
06-07-2011, 10:25 AM | #1703 | |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Jul 2009
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Quote:
The timing of his day1 vote on Mau had me trusting him quite a bit. Do you think Darth does that as a wolf? |
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06-07-2011, 10:29 AM | #1704 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Jul 2009
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I'm surprised at the run that piled on Thomkal las night, and even more surprised that the wolves killed him after that run that almost got him lynched.
I'd be looking at the mckerney and tyrith since they're the non-cleared people that piled on thomkal after my initial vote, but with him getting night killed, I'm not sure I want to go there today. |
06-07-2011, 10:46 AM | #1705 |
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I'm not sure why there is a higher burden of proof on me to get wolves as a villager than there is on everyone else. That is pretty much the argument that both Tyrith and mckerney are making.
If I had sat waiting for the theories that those two were advocating in order to make a vote, I would have fewer votes than Chief Rum right now. If people didn't think that the ideas I was presenting were valid at the time, I would have welcomed conversation around them at the time rather than "hang him for being wrong" votes now. That just creates an unfair standard for me to play this game compared to what others are being asked to do. I won't leave the thread saying you guys have been duped - we've seen how that worked out yesterday. I'm going to continue trying to help us to get a mobster today. But I'm certainly alarmed at the quick succession of votes that I've gotten so far when I'm positive that there are better candidates to be found. |
06-07-2011, 10:55 AM | #1706 | |
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Quote:
One thing that I take away from this is that we haven't had mobsters up for vote since Day 1 if you believe that J23 is a villager. So we really do have to focus on that Day 1 vote for information - it is the only meaningful data point we have right now. We've also got a lot more information on that vote now than we had yesterday, given the removal of Zinto/Lathum/Thomkal. - Crimson is the only possible wolf on Zinto (4 votes) - I'm the only possible wolf on bhlloy (3 votes) - J23 and Chubby are the only possible wolf votes on Danny (6 votes) - Chief Rum is the only other unaffiliated person (no vote) We know a wolf was up for vote, so we've got every reason to think that the wolves were trying to somewhat protect their own in that spot. Therefore, I have to believe we've got multiple votes in the above list that are mobsters. I'm still leaning towards trusting Crimson as a result of mauboy choosing to vote for him on Day 1 instead of MrBug when each had two votes on them. And I believe that J23 (strongly believe) and Chubby (mostly believe) are villagers. So at this point, I'm going to VOTE CHIEF RUM |
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06-07-2011, 11:05 AM | #1707 |
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The problem for you, hoops, is out of the list of people you put up there, you're the person I most suspect of being a wolf. From where I sit, what compelling reason is there to vote for CR over you, except that you talk more?
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06-07-2011, 11:22 AM | #1708 |
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I'm not sure why you suspect me more than Chief Rum of being a wolf - you haven't spelled out why you suspect me. So it makes it a little difficult to argue me vs him.
But I think we've got a number of wolves in the list I posted earlier - I know I'm not one of them and that the village will be a step closer to losing with voting me off today. My vote on Chief is primarily driven by a lack of trust - I've got at least some reason to trust the other people on that list, and I've spelled out those reasons. I've got no in-game reason to trust Chief Rum; the sole reason would be meta-game that I don't think he would be this distant as a wolf. I think he would provide some measure of cover for himself. But we're into Day 5 ... at some point I need to focus on the actual game rather than the history associated with the player name. In terms of my play, I think I've been pretty consistent with my villager play during the times where I've been active in the thread. I was right there with Thomkal pushing mauboy on Night 2 when he came out with his fake reveal. I deliberately put my vote that night in a place where I thought it was best served to preserve bhlloy/Harvey Dent. I've tried to make sense of the data set that we've had with an inclusive style of conversation that I think is extremely consistent with my villager play. If you are able to provide some assertions to your "I suspect hoospguy" posts I'll try to answer them as best I can. Without that, the above stuff more or less covers a general defense of my play. |
06-07-2011, 11:27 AM | #1709 |
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Your votes suck, more or less. Out of everyone alive your record is the worst, and the bhlloy vote on day 1 just smells like a throwaway on someone you don't care about. In a way two way fight stepping in and taking door #3 for no good reason smells pretty terrible to me, personally.
I do see your point about CR, though. He hasn't exactly given us a lot of reason to keep him alive, and while I don't think he (or anyone else around) would lie about RL stuff, they can provide useful cover fire to not have to work hard to stay alive. That said, your d1 vote has stunk to me for a while, and I'm not really in a hurry to vote for someone else. |
06-07-2011, 11:30 AM | #1710 |
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I also find it somewhat ironic that I'm being targeted for being vocal in a game where I'm 8th in posts. That includes being 15 posts behind Tyrith.
By my normal standards, I feel like I've been a stranger to this thread at various points where work/home life have had me far away from the thread. What I have done this game, as I try to do in just about every game I play (pretty naturally as a villager, somewhat forced as a wolf) is to take positions on players and generate some action. That has led to me voting for the leading vote getter on each of the last two days as people followed my arguments with their own votes. It creates a difficult position when asked, "why does your voting record suck?" but I would rather be grappling with the game each day than letting it pass me by with a shrug of my shoulders. Anyway, tangent done - I'm just trying to figure out how I'm supposed to act as a villager to not be suspected of being a manipulative wolf anytime I make it to the middle parts of a game. |
06-07-2011, 11:34 AM | #1711 | |
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Quote:
getting caught up. tyrith - i have no problem with that, that's just where I am coming from and why I voted the way i did. |
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06-07-2011, 11:35 AM | #1712 | |
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Quote:
Given that we haven't had a vote on a wolf since Day 1, unless you believe that J23 is a wolf, there has been one day total to have a "good" voting record. On Day 1 I initially voted for Danny, then reconsidered it based on the player/posts. I then switched to bhlloy rather than mauboy because I thought at the time that mauboy was more likely to be a villager having been pushed out to the front - and re-pushed out front every time it got close - of the voting. bhlloy wasn't a trivial candidate, as Danny voted right behind me (going from memory, he was doing it for everyone) and represented a 3rd party in the race at that time. I understand that you personally have a good vote on Day 1. I would suggest that the vast majority of folks who ended up on the right person on Day 1 were more lucky than good. This should be obvious in a game with no information available on the first day, but it feels like a reminder is necessary when you are promoting the idea that I have the worst voting record in the game. |
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06-07-2011, 11:40 AM | #1713 | |
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I have no issue with people voting Chief for lack of activity. My question regarding hoops would be: why would the mob kill someone ( Thomkal) who would be up for discussion the next day instead of a traditionally strong player? My 1st answer was that the mob left were newer to WW and perhaps "weaker" players which was why I asked what I did this morning. I no longer think that's the case which of course comes back to "why is hoops still alive?" The games I've been a wolf in we went after the strongest players when taking shots in the dark, we certainly didn't eliminate someone who might get lynched the next day anyways and leave a strong player in there. |
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06-07-2011, 11:52 AM | #1714 |
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Chubby, if I was a mobster then Thomkal would be alive for exactly the reasons that you suggested. There is no good reason to take a guy off the board who was the runner-up in the vote the previous day. Not unless you are nearly positive about someone when role-hunting.
That is a separate conversation than the "me still alive". But there are several consistent/good players still alive. If I had to speculate, I'm around because I'm making some bad assumptions on the wolves in the thread and they think I'm enough of a lightning rod for conversation that it is worth the risk. That also suggests to me an experienced wolf (like Chief Rum) is making the calls. So I've now suggested that the wolves were dumb for taking out Thomkal but savvy for leaving me alive - sigh. This is why I don't normally project too much into the collective decisions of the enemy. It is hard enough finding one unknown person, let alone trying to figure out how a group of them would think together without knowing who any of the individuals are for sure. |
06-07-2011, 12:04 PM | #1715 |
College Benchwarmer
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My speculation as to why Thomkal was killed is to put more pressure on those that voted for him. That's really the only reasoning I can come up with, so I won't be voting for those people tonight.
That would leave Hoops, Chubby, MrBug, DV, CF and CR. Of those, I feel pretty good about DV and Chubby. I don't mind seeing Hoops and CR as the people on the block currently. vote Chief Rum |
06-07-2011, 12:12 PM | #1716 | |||||
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@ 9:38 PM, post #906
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hoops - you unvote bhlloy after he's revealed as Dent to leave him in a tie @ 9:50 PM, then lynch vote mau @ 9:58PM when he's already guaranteed to to get text killed, then make a useless move in the name of saving dent from mau to J23 at exactly 10pm when your vote changes nothing and there isn't enough time for anyone to react? unvote Darth Vilus Vote hoopsguy this is based on the above voting and the fact that if you aren't a wolf, they would have offed you already IMO |
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06-07-2011, 12:33 PM | #1717 |
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Gotham Afternoon News
Hoopsguy - crimsonfox (1675), Tyrith (1701), mckerney (1702), Chubby (1716) Chief Rum - hoopsguy (1706), J23 (1715) |
06-07-2011, 12:48 PM | #1718 | |
General Manager
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Quote:
I had a lynch vote on Mau much earlier in the afternoon - I double unvoted at a point where there were reveals to discern. J23 was exactly the right vote to make in that spot when he said he was a vanilla villager - the other vote was Danny, and we had no idea how that would work out other than him saying he couldn't be lynched. I acted to save Dent, not kill him. You taking something that I did that couldn't be more pro-village, and trying to twist it into some kind of a wolf play, is awfully suspect. That, coupled with your posts where you're clearly looking to establish a reason to vote me ahead of time make me think that you're at least as good as candidate as Chief Rum right about now. UNVOTE CHIEF RUM VOTE CHUBBY |
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06-07-2011, 12:49 PM | #1719 |
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I'll move the vote to someone else if I need to do so in self-preservation, but short of a seer reveal I'm pretty sure I'll be staying on Chubby for the rest of the way.
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06-07-2011, 01:02 PM | #1720 | |
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Quote:
ahh the always popular retalitory vote... "don't you dare talk bad about me because I will vote for you!!!" I AM a great candidate if you like voting for helpful vanilla villagers. I shall await your police commissioner reveal. |
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06-07-2011, 01:08 PM | #1721 |
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No, it isn't the "counter vote with vote" play - I almost never do that. It is the "vote someone who is going out of their way to grossly misrepresent your actions" play - I honestly don't see how a villager could view those posts and paint it in the manner you did where I was taking out a roled villager.
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06-07-2011, 01:09 PM | #1722 |
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I know Abe and J23 specifically were online while that was going on, and I honestly won't know what to say if they remotely think that is what happened.
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06-07-2011, 01:10 PM | #1723 | |
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Quote:
by all means, explain your actions. i would especially love to hear how you were trying to save Dent at the deadline by moving your vote onto to someone that wouldn't eclipse bhlloy's vote total. |
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06-07-2011, 01:15 PM | #1724 |
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off to run errands in a few minutes so let the Chubby run begin!
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06-07-2011, 01:17 PM | #1725 |
Head Coach
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btw, my analysis last night overall and on the hoops/CR/J23 theory was entirely made regarding vote records. I have not had any time to look at posts. (which is really totally backwards from how I usually work.)
Initial thought is that hoops AND CR cannot be wolves. With hoops and J23 jumping on them. But maybe that's just their ploy from the overused wolf playbook. Maybe they are saying vote CR because they want to save him if they are all wolves. I still have a problem with day 2 though. both of them on mau. then again cr has been as absent as ntn. He's even missed some voting AND joker plays so I am guessing he just wasn't on. |
06-07-2011, 01:19 PM | #1726 |
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my take on CR is if I was a wolf and he was a wolf, I'd burn him for credibility. He's not helping the mob by not voting.
I wouldn't be surprised with CR being mob but with his activity I think hoops is more dangerous right now, CR can be tomorrow's lynch. |
06-07-2011, 01:19 PM | #1727 |
College Starter
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I don't really see the day 2 text votes as being super useful. mau was fairly far in the lead most of the day - it would have been fairly safe for multiple wolves to dump votes on him. The only reason Chubby wound up with some of the votes he did is that it was something like 10-4 towards mau at one point. That's a super approximate vote total - I didn't go back to double check.
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06-07-2011, 01:21 PM | #1728 |
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Abe, a farthing for your thoughts.
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06-07-2011, 01:25 PM | #1729 |
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i know i also never say this but I think Tyrith is probably a villager because of his day 1 and day 2 votes. i don't think he would let mau hang that early nor leave his vote there in case of vote shenanigans. He could have easily changed unsuspiciously to danny as everyone else was.
And day 2 he brought him up as a 4th candidate when there were others to vote for. He wuoldn't want to do that. |
06-07-2011, 01:28 PM | #1730 |
Head Coach
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that was actually a tactic used a couple games ago. The wolves kept killing off the other top candidate about every night. Was interesting. As you see it does create a little confusion as in "So where do we go now?" |
06-07-2011, 01:34 PM | #1731 |
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I'm with hoops when it comes to trying to figure out reasoning in situations like this. Personally, I generally feel like I can come up with about four different explanations for most choices in Werewolf, just depending on smart you assume the decision maker(s) is and what angle they are coming from. Of course, hoops's logic here is completely neutral to his own allegiance in this situation.
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06-07-2011, 01:49 PM | #1732 |
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Abe, J23,mckerney?
What are your thoughts on particular voting days and who is left? |
06-07-2011, 01:52 PM | #1733 |
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morning all
__________________
Check out my two current weekly Magic columns! https://www.coolstuffinc.com/a/?action=search&page=1&author[]=Abe%20Sargent |
06-07-2011, 02:02 PM | #1734 | |||||
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All of these posts take place between 8:57 - 9:00 PM (CST) so it was a little frantic trying to keep up with vote counts and make decisions on a pair of reveals that happened with something like 40 minutes and 20 minutes before the deadline. I was pretty sure that mauboy was lying while asking the questions, but I wanted to try and be more sure before voting to take out a role. When we got goofy answers from him on using his powers, I put the vote on him - there were 14 people in the thread, I wanted people to join me in voting mauboy. But that wasn't happening so I then shifted the vote to J23, who was right near the top on votes and was saying "kill me, figure this out tomorrow, I'm a vanilla villager". I didn't believe J23 was a vanilla villager, but I did think he was a better option than losing Dent. Probably 2/3 of the players were in the thread. I was one of the few that was asking questions of the players with the reveals and moving my vote to try and create a good outcome. The lack of movement by many, many players contributed far more to the issues with Dent than my putting a vote on J23. That is why I find your argument so ridiculous. |
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06-07-2011, 02:03 PM | #1735 |
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sigh...i give up. you're all wolves.
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06-07-2011, 02:05 PM | #1736 |
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unvote hoops
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06-07-2011, 02:07 PM | #1737 |
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if j23 isn't a wolf I see less reason for hoops to be and vice versa
no frigging clue about cr. |
06-07-2011, 02:08 PM | #1738 |
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Your argument for how you acted on day 2 makes sense to me. However, it's generally just how you would act - I'm not going to be giving you a ton of credit there. The village as a whole was asleep at the wheel for sure. I did not have the benefit of seeing this as it took place, though - Thursday night I was gone before the reveal took place.
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06-07-2011, 02:10 PM | #1739 |
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I do like the mau argument. It's the only thing today you've said that actually makes sense. Everything else has been alternative posts of thinking various bits of us are suspcious then followed by "I think they are villagers."
Kinda all over the place here. |
06-07-2011, 02:12 PM | #1740 |
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Tyrith, is there an argument that I could pose that would move your vote? I'm about 80% serious with that question, since you assume that I act like a villager when I'm a wolf. So I don't see how trying to suggest I'm acting like a villager is going to influence you.
Either way, I hope that you'll consider other candidates at some point today because the village is heading for another bad vote today. There has been almost no resistance whatsoever to me being offered us as the lynch victim today - nothing resembling a second candidate, no one taking up my defense except me. What does that tell you? That has more to do with reading the (lack of actions) from others than it does with me, so maybe that will resonate a little bit more. |
06-07-2011, 02:14 PM | #1741 | |
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Well, then help me understand how you are developing your trust for players? Because I do have some reasons for trusting several of the "bad day 1 voters", even if I think there have to be 2-3 wolves in the mix. It is more a matter of sifting through which of them I trust least. Or at least that was the exercise before Chubby decided to go from "I trust Hoops" to "why is Hoops alive Day 5" to "here is me presenting the exact opposite of what Hoops did on Day 2". At that point, today became quite a bit easier for me. |
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06-07-2011, 02:18 PM | #1742 |
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incidently, Chubby, no one has really done the "I'm voting for hoops because he's still alive on day3" thing in a LONG while. I can'tg even remember when.
Usually they save that for Danny nowadays And really I don't ever advocate using that kind of thought. hoops is wrong as often as he is right. Chief too. So don't ever go by how right you thought he was way "back in the day" please. |
06-07-2011, 02:20 PM | #1743 |
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Mostly I would suggest that how you acted on day 2 was what I would expect from you, regardless of which side you were on. You could have joined the asleep at the wheel gang, but I'm not even sure you're capable of playing WW that way - it'd be hilarious to see you try, actually. And it's pretty clear from your actions that you were expecting more people to try to swing around to some other candidate than did.
I could see you making that sequence of plays from either angle. It's possible the surface level read is completely correct. It's also possible you stalled for a few minutes before putting your vote in on J23 right at the deadline in hope of getting bhlloy lynched without getting your hands dirty. At the end of the day, my read of the solid evidence we have says you're the best candidate we have. You can't go back in time and change your D1 vote. I'm going to need something better than what you've given so far in order to be swayed. That said, if we wind up lynching CR or Chubby today, I'm not going to be crying in my cereal waiting to see the result. But I'm not budging unless something better comes along. |
06-07-2011, 02:23 PM | #1744 |
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From what I've seen of how wolves pick targets these days, CF, it's a fairly legitimate question to ask, though. Look at who got killed this game. Now, hoops, as much as I personally like the guy and think he is a talented player, probably doesn't fall into that category at his current level of playtime. But I don't think the angle is inherently without merit.
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06-07-2011, 02:27 PM | #1745 | |
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I already posted some thoughts earlier today about who I lean towards trusting, and who I'd like to look at closer today. I was around at the deadline of day2, but was trying to read through a ton of posts in the 10 minutes I had. Hoops's switch at the time was after I had offered myself up if we needed to save a roled villager, as he posted, and didn't appear to be anything about trying to save Mau (who was already dead via the text thing at that point). If there are other days you're asking about, let me know which one(s) and which votes (lynch or joker) |
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06-07-2011, 02:27 PM | #1746 |
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Gotham Afternoon News
Hoopsguy - Tyrith (1701), mckerney (1702), Chubby (1716) Chief Rum - J23 (1715) Chubby - hoopsguy (1718) |
06-07-2011, 02:28 PM | #1747 |
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I'm heading out to class and so won't be back until probably 8 or 9 EST.
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06-07-2011, 02:35 PM | #1748 | |
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any that jump out at you as significant. And especially what your views are about particular people. |
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06-07-2011, 02:36 PM | #1749 |
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If you think certain individuals are either wolves or villagers and why.
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06-07-2011, 02:42 PM | #1750 | |
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Quote:
Here was my post earlier today. The interaction between Chubby and Hoops hasn't really swayed my opinion on either terribly much, though I haven't had a chance to look too closely. I plan on trying to do that when I get home from work. |
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