Werewolf LXXII: Chess (Checkmate!)

[The Jackal]

vote the jackal

[The Jackal]

And I don't like you very much right now, PB.

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

vote the jackal

Well, that's a new one for me.

[jeheinz72]

What, no, "incorrect scan" lame-ass defense? I'm disappointed Jackal.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

What, no, "incorrect scan" lame-ass defense? I'm disappointed Jackal.

Uh, sorry to disappoint you.

[jeheinz72]

Wow, it's like almost deadline, isn't it?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Wow, it's like almost deadline, isn't it?

Yep..the crazy shenanigans should be coming any minute now!

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Yep..the crazy shenanigans should be coming any minute now!

Pass, quick, give me special voting powers!

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Pass, quick, give me special voting powers!

I give you the power to stop being a dumbass who votes for himself!

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I give you the power to stop being a dumbass who votes for himself!

Damnit, I read this after the deadline. Any vote switch wouldn't count.

[PurdueBrad]

Deadline

Dead, like the Flyers...
Line, like line-up to shake hands 'cause this series is almost over baby!

Sorry Jackal.

[Passacaglia]

Vote count:

The Jackal -- Narcizo (1672), jeheinz72 (1683), PurdueBrad (1684), The Jackal (1701)
jeheinz72 -- Neon_Chaos (1697)

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Deadline

Dead, like the Flyers...
Line, like line-up to shake hands 'cause this series is almost over baby!

Sorry Jackal.

It's all good, I'm pleased they made it this far, and without Timonen/Coburn and realistically Gagne, they dont have much chance of beating the Pens the way they are playing.

[PurdueBrad]

Actually, to be honest, I'm excited to see the Pens this far after last year's debacle. As for the Flyers, they have impressed me all the way through and, if it weren't the Penguins, I would probably be rooting for your Flyers.

[Passacaglia]

At this point, the pieces are sure that The Jackal is actually The Wolf, and y'all are ready for one of the happiest lynchings so far. The Jackal the howls as his the body is hung. The Jackal was a White Knight and a wolf! Another quiet night, some screams of "Get back here" are heard, but nothing alarming. You wake up to find that oliegirl is missing. oliegirl was a Black Rook!

[oliegirl]

Crap - I didn't get a vote in, though I did get my "night action" in earlier...got slammed at work and totally forgot about the noon deadline. Sorry!!!!

[PurdueBrad]

WOW, now that is an interesting move by the wolf (assuming one).

[jeheinz72]

So who the heck is left?

Me, PB, Narc, Neon and NTN?

[PurdueBrad]

Yeah, on black it is just Neon, on white it is NTN, Narc, Heinz, and PB.

1 wolf out there still, 2 kings, and 2 non-king, non-wolf pieces.

[Passacaglia]

All PMs have been sent out. I'm going to stick with the 12 PM deadline for tomorrow, Day 8.

[jeheinz72]

Then this is pretty easy for me.

PB or Narc.

I thought you did some wolfy things early on PB but so did I un screwing up my Day One vote (though you did that too) it's pittance compared to Narc's laundry list of offenses.

There's no excuse for not protecting collins 2 nights ago. He even said he would to me. Additionally, if he is really a wolf protecting bodyguard (who actually WANTS to protect from wolves) I can't see going 0-for-7 at this point. You'd think we'd get 1 protection at some point.

Vote Narcizo

I'll listen to his case, but I can't see where he's not the last wolf. If I have to pay off PB because Narc screwed this game as a villager, then so be it.

[Narcizo]

I agree that my record has been poor. While most of the attacks have been hard to judge the kill on mccollins was terrible from the white villager viewpoint and I can only say that I made a mistake. Which isn't the most impressive defence.

I would say that the choice of killing OlieGirl would be terrible for me as a wolf, while it would be excellent for a wolf trying to get me, as the easiest target, lynched.

Given my own record I think it would be pointless commenting on PB or Heinz's records. As Heinz points out there was some suspicion about PB's activities but they are pretty poor compared with the lack of block of mccollins.

So, as a villager, myIf we're going to have a lynch vote then I think we might get some information if the three wolf candidates revealed their board positions. This might allow us to judge whether a person moved in a fashion likely to take the black king. There will be no strategic advantage in this if we vote to lynch someone (probably me, based on my record, I admit) as either that person is the wolf or they aren't and the wolf wins. Heinz, as you want to lynch me do you mind saying where you are? I agree that when there is distrust about me we need to lynch someone today (even though it's likely to be me and with me dying the wolves win) so I'm willing to provide mine. I was the rook at B7 and landed at E7, moving phase 2. I can see some pieces around. My hope was that Neon might think I was the wolf and hope that I wouldn't try to attack him. Or that he would try to attack your rook at C6 on phase 1 and bounce as you would be protecting yourself.

[PurdueBrad]

I'm not giving up my position but I will give up some piece information given that if we don't get a wolf in the next lynch, the night kill won't really matter.

I am double-queened.

[jeheinz72]

I'm about to go get my haircut and lunch. Let me decipher if I think giving away board position is truly in the villages best interests. I mean realistically I've only got one more whack at Neon, if I even have that whack.

Asking for my positioning now opens it up, whether you or PB are the final wolf, to blocking me. Additionally, it aids Neon in his escape.

I'm not 100% sure that it's a great idea frankly. Smells of end game, but I'll think on it over the next hour.

[Narcizo]

I OK giving my information away because Neon knows where I am anyway.

[jeheinz72]

PB, NICE!

Quick question for you, which I don't think gives away too much. Are your queens in the same row? If not, we may have a chance at this yet.

I understand if you want to maintain being mum about it, but I know you aren't too keen at chess IIRC, and if they're in separate rows, we can secure the win I believe.

[Narcizo]

And if you are set on lynching me (as it seems you were) then it is end game.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

And if you are set on lynching me (as it seems you were) then it is end game.

Well, if you were in my shoes, wouldn't you be? I mean you know the convo's we've had. You know the wild theories you've thrown out, you know how the collins mess went down, just like I did. Can ya blame me?

I mean I'll admit (probably foolishly) that this sliver of me wants to think you're just a villager like me and you/we wasted a good opportunity, but frankly, that alone isn't going to change my vote.

I'd love to see your case against PB, and see how it matches up with what I have.

[Narcizo]

Yes I have agreed that my record is poor. However I believe the board positions have the possibility of providing us with the information we need to find the wolf. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think the wolf would take the chance of capturing Neon, while a villager would make an attempt to capture him.

[Narcizo]

To re-iterate if the wolf slipped up on their movement then this would be solid proof of who the wolf is. Then we would not have to worry about Neon.

[Narcizo]

Ok. Maybe this would work. Heinz started at C6 I believe (as discussed in the thread). Neon was at C7. Can anyone see a rook not on E7 who is in a position that would not be indicative of an attempted attack on Neon. Attack squares would be A6, B6, C7, C8, D6, E6 onwards.

A case is harder to prove against PB given his queen's position.

[PurdueBrad]

My queens are in separate rows and columns and I probably sound like a jackass because I'm sure this is incorrect vocabulary for chess, sorry.

[PurdueBrad]

I know the position of the rooks and both seem to be in attack position squares, according at least to the list Narcizo gave.

[Neon_Chaos]

Let's make this fun.

Instead of you trying to vote each other off, vote for me, and I get to choose!



Vote Neon Chaos

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos

Let's make this fun.

Instead of you trying to vote each other off, vote for me, and I get to choose!



Vote Neon Chaos

A smart wolf would vote with you because you could take out a threatening piece rather than the wolf, but I do think it's a funny idea! Of course if you didn't kill the wolf, then you would lose anyway because they would nightkill the last white piece and it leaves 2 kings and 1 wolf which is a victory for the wolves.

[PurdueBrad]

Neon, do you have any thoughts on who might be the wolf that you would be willing to share? Again, know that we both lose if we don't get the wolf here, this is basically the first endgame we've faced.

[ntndeacon]

Vote Narcizo

[jeheinz72]

Excellent. NTN is the lone person here I'm sure has the same interests that I do.

[Narcizo]

Ok I'm going to bed soon. If we are going for a lynch tomorrow then I think everyone can reveal the exact locations of the pieces. We lose nothing as we either win or lose with the lynch.

[jeheinz72]

Not true, white still has to get Neon.
Let's say we're right, lynch you and you're a wolf.

That leave me and PB vs Neon (basically, with NTN kickin' it back there). Granted, there are no wolves, but we still have to get Neon basically in 2 turns. In doing so, I'd prefer he doesn't know where we are located.

[PurdueBrad]

Alright, I'm doing this now so that tomorrow it wouldn't be a hit and run. I'm on a field trip tomorrow so I won't be on around deadline.

vote JEHeinz72

I have one argument between Heinz and Narcizo and that is this:
You two have voted IDENTICAL to each other the entire game. 5 lynches, 5 same votes. The odds of that happening are very, very low. Heinz's vote followed Narcizo's closely in four of those votes, which comes off to me as trying to hide a vote. I know this may not be the strongest reasoning but you two have basically played the exact same game. The other thing I picked up on is that Heinz has been much, MUCH more aggressive in the past two days than most players on the board, almost as though he's trying to drive a vote. So, with that, both of my votes go on JEHeinz and I hope this is right.

I will check for any responses in the morning and then will be looking forward to coming back to see what happened. Good luck white team.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

At this point, the pieces are sure that The Jackal is actually The Wolf, and y'all are ready for one of the happiest lynchings so far. The Jackal the howls as his the body is hung. The Jackal was a White Knight and a wolf! Another quiet night, some screams of "Get back here" are heard, but nothing alarming. You wake up to find that oliegirl is missing. oliegirl was a Black Rook!

Originally Posted by Sonic Youth

Is it as odd to you as it is to me, that of all the white pieces targetted, that the Knight was the one taken down? Does that feel specific to you like it does to me?

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Actually, wait a sec. Pet theory which may prove useful.

What is the chance a knight is a wolf? Just on sheer numbers. Let's say we assume four wolves (two per side), random piece selection, and take out the kings. So there is a 22% (2 wolves/9 each side) chance of any given player on a side being a wolf. And with two knights, each role has the same 22% chance of the wolf role picking out a knight. First time you role for wolf, 22% chance that wolf is a knight, or 78% chance he is not. Let's say a knight doesn't get hit. Now there is a 2 in 8 (25% chance) of hitting a knight the second time around, removing the player who is already a wolf. That is a 75% chance of wolf =! a knight. Our chance of not having a knight be a wolf on any side is (78%) times (75%), which is (7/9) * (3/4) = (21/36), down to 7/12, or 58.3% chance that a side does not have a wolf knight.

But my theory only needs one wolf knight to work. Each side has a 58.3% chance of NOT having a wolf knight. But the chance neither side has a wolf knight? 58.3% * 58.3% = (7/12) * (7/12) = (49/144) = 34%.

Guys, there is only a 34% chance that we don't have a wolf knight on this board from the get go. Which means we likely DO have a wolf knight.

Okay, let's say you're this wolf knight. Likely enough, your partner knight is not a wolf. In fact, you will know this (you know who the wolves are), so we will assume the partner knight is not a wolf. And you know his name. And you know knights are about as close to a seer as this game has. People, the wolves were likely handed the name of a seer from the start of this game.

That name was Barkeep, and he was betrayed by partner, the other white knight.

And we know one other knight already--The Jackal. He may or may not be the partner knight. But the point is, two other people already know if he is or not--the other knights still alive. So I say, vote for The Jackal. His partner should reveal and come to his defense if The Jackal was not BK's partner. And if he was, the other two knights should both reveal and reveal him for who he is (rooks, be prepared to protect our good knights).

Revealing those knights is risky, but with the benefit of getting another wolf this early in the game? I say it's worth a shot, especially with three remaining bodyguards.

Not going to say there isn't risk (34% chance of a wolf knight is hardly a shoo in), and if The Jackal is not Barkeep's partner, revealing yourself as The Jackal's partner will not reveal BK's actual partner--we will just know it was the other white knight (and should try to kill him in the chess game).

But I thought I would throw this theory out there and let you guys hash it out while I am at work (wish I could be around, but I won't be able to).

VOTE THE JACKAL

Hate to say we told you so, but... (shoulda listened a LOOOOOONG time ago ).

[PurdueBrad]

Not much has gone on except the dead have risen again, HI CHIEF!, so I'm out, off to the Art Institute.

[Narcizo]

I’m afraid this is going to get very, very long. This is my last chance to make amends for my mistakes and if my beliefs are wrong then it’s an awful lot of wasted time. If that’s the penance I have to pay for my mistake in not guarding mccollins then so be it.

My first assumption is that a villager is prepared to die to give victory to his team, while a lone wolf will avoid it. So PB if you genuinely believe that Heinz is the wolf/I’m a villager then I suggest you leave your vote on him. Your two votes will be enough to lynch him, unless someone else gets three votes. I don't know then if I should vote heinz or vote for you. I want to trust you if you stay on Heinz but what if this is a ploy? I move my vote to you. Now Heinz can either vote for you or for me. Either way he's dead. If he moves to you then you're dead and if I'm a wolf I'm in clover. But if I was a wolf I'd just lay my vote on Heinz anyway. If he stays on me then you win and that's the main thing if you know you're a villager.

If for whatever reason you don’t believe that Heinz is the wolf (you were “testing” me somehow or something) then you probably should put your vote on me and then I’ll have to have a crack at convincing NTN and Heinz that you are the wolf. Or you vote No Lynch (see below). If you do put your vote on me then NTN should move to no lynch and Heinz can see if he believes me or not. The only problem is Neon messing with the vote. Then you and I die and Heinz wins as a villager or wolf. This all presumes that you're not going to be around at deadline. I won't be able to be.



I’m not sure who the wolf is. I’m fluctuating between a 40-60% for both of you. I know I’m a villager. So that gives me a decent chance of a win. Which is a fat lot better than the 5% chance I thought I had yesterday, when I thought everyone was going to lynch me. Now if you are a villager and you’re not really sure about things, and as my percentage run down shows I’m in the same boat, then you might want to think about voting “No Lynch”. The two villagers get a shot at taking Neon on the board and seeing the wolf not trying to take Neon. If there’s a night kill then the game will almost certainly end in stalemate. Again, given the fact that I thought the village was 95% likely to lose yesterday (with my lynching) then I’ll take a stalemate. (of course you could say the same thing about me if I was a wolf).



There are three options with your vote;
a) you genuinely think Heinz is the wolf and I’m just ridiculously over-analyzing again. It’s my speciality. As you know. Of course, I want to believe this as I don’t think a wolf would put a vote on the non-leader in a lynch vote. However Heinz does have valid reasons for thinking I'm a wolf.
b) It’s a wolf ploy. You know we’re both villagers so you’re only too happy for either of us to be voted off. Dunno about that - you could just as easily bury me if you know I'm a villager.
c) This is a test, in which case I hope I passed. Maybe I’m looking a gift horse in the mouth and should just vote for Heinz but if you are the wolf then me putting my vote on Heinz loses us the game every bit as much as me getting voted off.



There are some things about Jeheinz giving me hinky feelings. I didn’t like the way he came running out of the gates looking to lynch me last night or asked me to provide my reasonings for thinking that you were a wolf. To me that looked like he was asking me to turn you against me by bringing up arguments about you. There is also the theory that there are paired pieces in the game. If that’s the case then Heinz is a wolf (because I know I’m not – 2 rooks/2 knights). He was the first one to mention in PMs voting Kwhit on day one (a fact he will acknowledge if he’s a villager), for example. He seemed to be leading a charge to vote out Quikshot on day one as well when two wolves were on the block. The lack of blocks make a lot more sense when you know the stuff I’ve been saying to him. And it would explain my lack of success in blocking as, although I haven’t always told him who I would block (and I’ve sometimes lied to him) I have also given occasional rundowns.


However, as I have said, I did give him genuine reasons for thinking I was a wolf (were he a villager) over mccollins death. I was trying to play a clever game (I thought he was pressuring me unusually much in PMs to defend mccollins . I started to think he was supicious and he was setting me up so he could kill the bodyguard. So I told him I would do so and then protected myself. Then when mccollins died I was shocked at the mistake I made. I sent a PM where I said, I shouldn't have sent the last message (meaning I had given myself away). Were he a villager he would see this as me saying I regreted saying I was going to defend mccollins whenI was going to kill him. His responses were rather theatrical though.

However, you also have given us no information about your pieces whereabouts. This struck me last night.

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

I am double-queened.

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

My queens are in separate rows and columns and I probably sound like a jackass because I'm sure this is incorrect vocabulary for chess, sorry.

If by “double-queened” you mean that your second pawn became a queen now then given the fact that you’ve said your two queens aren’t on the same row or column that means the piece I see must the the piece that has recently been made queen. If that’s the case then the queen which was on A8 cannot have made it’s naturally most attacking move (moving along the 8 row). Because I would be able to see it. I thought that this meant you were the wolf last night but in the cold light of day I’m not so sure.

Of course Heinz’s move can also be explained if he’s a wolf. He could move to wherever he moved on phase one. At worst he risks bouncing, at best he gets to look like he tried to capture the king. My move is the only one that is 100% likely to succede. However as the likely lynch victim today I might well have taken the chance there.

Sorry this is a mega-post. I know I should be grateful that I even have a chance here but I want to make the right decision. I’m awaiting your response.
For now I

Vote No Lynch

My analysis of a no lynch is the following

I’m a wolf and night kill PB – Heinz & NTN vs Me & Neon
I’m a wolf and night kill Heinz – Village win (Me & Neon vs PB and NTN – unless NTN changes his mind.
PB is a wolf and night kills Heinz – I would imagine wolf wins
PB is a wolf and night kills me – Heinz has to convince NTN that PB is bad, Neon can interfere
Heinz is a wolf and night kills me – same as above>>
Heinz is a wolf and night kills PB – Stalemate Heinz & NTN vs Me & Neon>>

[Neon_Chaos]

Vote No Lynch

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Alright, I'm doing this now so that tomorrow it wouldn't be a hit and run. I'm on a field trip tomorrow so I won't be on around deadline.

vote JEHeinz72

I have one argument between Heinz and Narcizo and that is this:
You two have voted IDENTICAL to each other the entire game. 5 lynches, 5 same votes. The odds of that happening are very, very low. Heinz's vote followed Narcizo's closely in four of those votes, which comes off to me as trying to hide a vote. I know this may not be the strongest reasoning but you two have basically played the exact same game. The other thing I picked up on is that Heinz has been much, MUCH more aggressive in the past two days than most players on the board, almost as though he's trying to drive a vote. So, with that, both of my votes go on JEHeinz and I hope this is right.

I will check for any responses in the morning and then will be looking forward to coming back to see what happened. Good luck white team.

PB, a couple things here, other than you're costing us the game here, presuming you're a white villager, which I think you are

Sorry this is long, but you should read it.

1. As far as my votes "following" Narc's there are two things you need to remember. One, we're PM partners, so our votes naturally align given we've discussed, albeit with a level of distrust mixed in, what our best move to get Neon and win the game is. Hence why our votes typically align. As far as mine coming "2nd" most times, that's time zone man. I'm only on at work, which ends at 6 PM EST. I don't come back on until 9 AM. So I've typically waited until I get back to make my vote. Narcizo is somewhere, I forget where, but it's a way different time zone. Most of the time, he makes his vote, explains it to me, I vote it in the morning (stupidly now, I know)

2. Look at the board, if I am understanding you two right (and you're telling the truth). You are in Row 8 with a queen and Row 7 with a Queen. Neon is somewhere in rows 6-8, I can't see him, but I imagine you can. He's likely to the left of you (if row 8 is on top of the board) I'm in Row 6 with a rook and Narc is in E7 with the rook.

I'm fairly certain that Narc is *between* your 7th row Queen and Neon, to an extent. I admit I'm not 100% on this, but it's my interpretation of past views of people's locations. If that's the case, who is the one blocking you from killing Neon tonight...Narcizo. I mean chess-wise, you and I have it won. We each move laterally left, timing of 8 (well I move left, you move in the direction of Neon, since you can see him). If Neon is in rows 7 or 8, we win tonight guaranteed. He can't avoid our capture with us 2 covering 3 rows like that. It's impossible. If he's in row 6, which he might be, then we're out of luck. I'll admit I guessed wrong sweeping right instead of left then. I underestimated his gusto (figuring he'd think I'd sweep left in the direction of him, when instead I was setting him up for tonight's 3-row guarantee.


3. Now this is the big one. Narcizo full well admits that he told me 2 nights back that he was protecting collins. Now, I understand he was trying to get clever b/c he didn't trust me, that, I get. In a sense, I can't blame him, on the other, it's my personal feel that it was too big of a risk to make that greedy move.

But moving beyond that, if I'm the wolf, and the person I *know* is a wolf bodyguard tells me who he is protecting, even if I don't believe him 100%, why on earth would I try to kill collins? I, as a wolf, would have 3 scenarios

- Believe him, kill him off, resulting in his block (didn't happen)

- Be unsure either way, divert my kill to another candidate (you or olie)

- Think he's lying and try to kill Collins anyway, knowing that failure there with Jackal about to be proven as a wolf (with RendeR's lynch as a villager) basically means I'd lose the game

So it's a pretty simple question here, if you were me, given the same facts, which action are you most likely to take? (I know I would have gone middle, just to keep myself alive) Which action are you least likely to take (clearly for me, it's the last one, the one that happened)


I'm sorry PB, but you've got the wrong cat here. It's probably my fault for not speaking up when Narc tried to set me up with the "Anxiety, Qwik and Cronin" are working together gambit in private, but I can't undo that. You can undo your mistake here.

[Narcizo]

Were I the wolf I'd kill PB and you don't have a chance of taking out Neon. The game would be stalemate. As a wolf I'd have just talked myself out of a win by joining with PB to a stalemate.

[Narcizo]

Again, heinz if you think I'm the wolf then you won't care if PB kills you. PB will win with white. I imagine Pass has a rule that if there's 2 white pieces and a black king then white wins (otherwise the game would never end).

[Narcizo]

That's it made up in my mind. I should have realised that PB was good as soon as he voted for a known villager (me). I wanted to be sure that I wasn't making a mistake though. At least I got to be sure I'm voting correctly.

To stop Neon interfering.

Unvote No Lynch
Vote JeHeinz

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Again, heinz if you think I'm the wolf then you won't care if PB kills you. PB will win with white. I imagine Pass has a rule that if there's 2 white pieces and a black king then white wins (otherwise the game would never end).

But PB can certainly win with voting out the wolf and he and I sweeping left and taking out Neon.