WW CXXVI: Wolves in Asgard - Game Over (Result in Post 2538)

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I also can't see why Telle would say anything if she was a wolf and had the hammer or a fake hammer. She'd just keep quiet and it would be her word against everybody else's as to where it came from. Saying she had randomly passed an item only earned her distrust at the time, and allows us to be focusing the spotlight on her now.

I don't think it's necessarily true that a wolf had to have an item to fake it ... maybe they can choose to create a fake instead of doing a night kill, or it's just an action Loki can take, or maybe when somehting is passed randomly they have a chance to fake it and pass it on, etc., etc.

Something we can use though is that we know no one can have more than one item. So we can use all the known item locations to narrow down where items might have been when they've gone missing.

The needed us to think the hammer was real. It was just rotten luck that on the same day that we find the fake hammer that the real hammer comes back to the villagers.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Chubby

1/19 chance she passes to loki
18/19 chance she passes to anyone but loki

1/19 chance of her being loki; 18/19 chance of her being anyone but loki.

The numbers work either way you want to show them.

Then factor in the fact that we are purely speculating how the rule works.

If she's loki the wolves wuld also want her to get her hands on othe ritems as well. Her name doesn't seem to show up in other item trails yet. Plus, the wolves wouldn't want any suspicion on her because they would want her to get more items.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

I can't see hoops and Telle both being wolves but I see more of a scenario where hoops is than Telle. I could actually see Narc being a wolf more so than Telle.
If Telle is a wolf and creates a fake hammer why come out and even say that she had it? That is what I can't get my head around logically.

I'll see you your "why would Telle come out and say that she had the hammer" (I basically admitted having it by telling Hoops I sent it to him. As Telle claims that she sent it out randomly there's no reason for me to admit to having it. Anyone could have it) and raise you "why the hell would I go after DV on day three"? If we're presuming that the real hammer wound up with Racer because DV was lynched then if I felt the overwhelming need to vote a wolf on day three, the day after we had already lost a wolf, why didn't I pick someone else?

And just to go back a bit here. If we're talking about why Telle would do things - why on earth would Telle chose to allow the hammer to go out at random, meaning that she had no idea who had the hammer? I believe that by that stage I'd already pointed out the value of keeping track of where the items went.

And to reiterate the point I made yesterday. If nobody claimed having the hammer any day then there would be no point in creating a fake hammer because everyone would see it as a wolf ploy. So someone had to claim it on day one. We don't actually know Telle started with the hammer. For that matter you don't know that I had the hammer on day two.

JAG - did the game only start with the items listed in the rules, or are there secret items at the start of the game?

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

1/19 chance of her being loki; 18/19 chance of her being anyone but loki.

The numbers work either way you want to show them.

Then factor in the fact that we are purely speculating how the rule works.

If she's loki the wolves wuld also want her to get her hands on othe ritems as well. Her name doesn't seem to show up in other item trails yet. Plus, the wolves wouldn't want any suspicion on her because they would want her to get more items.

The only other item that would benefit the wolves by having a copy would be the sword IMO. We also haven't had anyone claim to have a 2nd copy of an item either.

I also disagree with the odds of her being loki, I find it plausible (as I've said before) that Loki would start out with my hammer due to game mechanics. Nobody else has challenged the claim that she initially held the hammer and nobody else claimed to hold a hammer at the start of the game either.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Chubby

1/19 chance she passes to loki
18/19 chance she passes to anyone but loki

1/19 chance she passes it to Thor
1/19 chance she passes it to me
1/19 chance she passes it to a certain fellow wolf ...

The chance of passing it to any one person is the same, if truly done randomly. And the idea that she had to have passed it to Loki is completely invented, we have no idea if that was necessary or not. So the stats are basically meaningless.

The question to me is if Telle were a wolf, why would she name herself? She wouldn't. If she had the real hammer she'd pass it among the wolves and never say boo. If she had a fake hammer she'd pass it to someone and not say who it was. She didn't reveal until day two when it was clear that we wouldn't know who passed us an item.

I really don't get how revealing herself would help at all. I guess it's possible she just blundered, but it seems a rather poor basis for a vote to think the wolves would do that.

[Lathum]

vote Telle

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Autumn

1/19 chance she passes it to Thor
1/19 chance she passes it to me
1/19 chance she passes it to a certain fellow wolf ...

???

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

The needed us to think the hammer was real. It was just rotten luck that on the same day that we find the fake hammer that the real hammer comes back to the villagers.

I don't get this. We had no idea there could be fake items until Chubby's hammer crumbled. No idea. So I don't see why the wolves would need to do *anything* to make us think the fake hammer was real. We all assumed it was.

Maybe Telle's bad, but I just think we're stretching our assumptions about how this fake item worked way too far. Maybe the wolves got to institute a fake item from the very beginning. Maybe 'cause a wolf had the hammer to begin with they got to fake it and that all happened before the start. Maybe they were able to alter it when it was passed randomly, or just when it was passed. I don't think we know enough other than to cast a hairy eyeball at the chain of hammer passers and keep an eye on it. If the rules were spelled out on fake items I'm sure we could hammer out (hah) who did it, but without any rules, I think it's a bad idea to make assumptions. I know from other games, we usually guess wrong.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

???

Any one fellow wolf would be the same chance 1/19 as any one other person.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Day Three

#934 05:18 Chubby votes Lathum (1)
#940 07:46 Narcizo votes Darth Vilus (1)
#942 07:57 Heinz votes ntndeacon (1)
#950 09:22 Autumn votes Darth Vilus (2)
#957 09:39 Autumn unvotes Darth Vilus (1)
#957 09:39 Autumn votes Barkeep (1)
#966 10:42 Racer votes Barkeep (2)
#974 10:56 Thomkal votes Lathum (2)

#988 11:14 ntndeacon votes Lathum (3)
#1012 13:50 MrBug votes Lathum (4)
#1024 14:18 Zinto votes ntndeacon (2)
#1030 15:08 Barkeep votes Darth Vilus (2)
#1035 15:58 EagleFan votes Lathum (5)
#1049 16:51 mckerney votes Darth Vilus (3)
#1065 17:36 J23 votes Darth Vilus (4)
#1076 17:52 Lathum votes Darth Vilus (5)

#1099 19:25 Darth Vilus votes Lathum (6)
#1108 20:04 Autumn unvotes Barkeep (1)
#1108 20:04 Autumn votes Darth Vilus (6)
#1110 20:08 Racer unvotes Barkeep (0)
#1110 20:08 Racer votes Darth Vilus (7)
#1111 20:10 Racer unvotes Darth Vilus (6)
#1111 20:10 Racer votes Barkeep (1)
#1114 20:11 Autumn unvotes Darth Vilus (5)
#1114 20:11 Autumn votes Barkeep (2)
#1117 20:12 Zinto unvotes ntn (1)
#1117 20:12 Zinto votes Barkeep (3)

#1119 20:25 Darth Vilus unvotes Lathum (5)
#1119 20:25 Darth Vilus votes Barkeep (4)
#1129 20:44 Lathum unvotes DV (4)
#1129 20:44 Lathum votes Barkeep (5)
#1136 20:50 ntn unvotes Lathum (4)
#1136 20:50 ntn votes DV (5)
#1140 20:53 Lathum unvotes Barkeep (4)
#1140 20:53 Lathum votes DV (6)

#1153 21:04 mau votes Barkeep (5)
#1188 21:30 Darth Vilus unvotes Barkeep (4)
#1188 21:30 Darth Vilus votes Lathum (5)
#1200 21:42 Hoops votes Darth Vilus (7)
#1202 21:43 Telle votes Lathum (6)
#1204 21:44 Racer unvotes Barkeep (3)
#1204 21:44 Racer votes Darth Vilus (8)
#1206 21:46 Autumn unvotes Barkeep (2)
#1206 21:46 Autumn votes Lathum (7)
#1223 21:52 Zinto unvotes Barkeep (1)
#1223 21:52 Zinto votes DV (9)
#1229 21:53 Chubby unvotes Lathum (6)
#1229 21:53 Chubby votes DV (10)

Darth Vilus 10 - Narcizo (940), Barkeep49 (1030), mckerney (1049), J23 (1065), ntndeacon (1136), Lathum (1140), hoopsguy (1200), Racer (1204), Zinto (1223), Chubby (1229)
Lathum 6 - Thomkal (974), MrBug708 (1012), EagleFan (1035), Darth Vilus (1188), Telle (1202), Autumn (1206)
Barkeep49 1 - mauboy1 (1153)
ntndeacon 1 - jeheinz72 (942)

This is me thinking outloud.

Looking at early voting on Darth ...

Barkeep looks good here, putting a second vote on Darth when he could have let him fade into the background ( just looking at votes, not posts). Racer looks a little worse early on, I unvote Darth and go to BK and Racer follows, that could be a wolf trying to encourage a new candidate.

NTN and Mr. Bug push Lathum up, either one of those could also be a wolf trying to make sure there's a better candidate than DV.

Mckerney and J23 look great for their votes (obviously for J23), Lathum and DV trade self defense votes.

So in early voting I would say BK and Mckerney have some pluses; me, Racer, NTN and Mr. Bug have minuses.

At that point it's 6-5 Lathum, DV. Racer and I both vote DV and then switch back to Barkeep. Looks bad, but I know in my case I didn't have any case against DV and felt strongly about Barkeep. Zinto follows us, and then Lathum and DV both switch to BK in self defense.

Later on is a bit of a mess. Mauboy could be seen as defending Darth, voting Barkeep when the tide was turning back a bit. Darth switches to Lathum though, so if Mau and Darth are wolves they're not coordinating well. Hoops has a good vote there, as does Racer. I vote Lathum, I would like to say a bit of a daring rescue if I was a wolf, but it's certainly not looking like a good vote without knowing Lathum's allegiance. Zinto's vote I think is neutral, I wolf would be a bit crazy to tie it up at that point, but I guess leans positive.

Pluses: BK, Mckerney, Hoops, Racer
Minuses: Autumn, Racer, NTN, Mr. Bug, Mauboy

[Autumn]

I know two out of three of us in Friday's mix-up were villagers, and I suspect the third was, so I'm not sure that's going to tell us much. I think Day Three is our best shot at learning from the voting, as I expect the wolves didn't worry about voting Danny early on.

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by Autumn

This is me thinking outloud.

Looking at early voting on Darth ...

Barkeep looks good here, putting a second vote on Darth when he could have let him fade into the background ( just looking at votes, not posts). Racer looks a little worse early on, I unvote Darth and go to BK and Racer follows, that could be a wolf trying to encourage a new candidate.

NTN and Mr. Bug push Lathum up, either one of those could also be a wolf trying to make sure there's a better candidate than DV.

Mckerney and J23 look great for their votes (obviously for J23), Lathum and DV trade self defense votes.

So in early voting I would say BK and Mckerney have some pluses; me, Racer, NTN and Mr. Bug have minuses.

At that point it's 6-5 Lathum, DV. Racer and I both vote DV and then switch back to Barkeep. Looks bad, but I know in my case I didn't have any case against DV and felt strongly about Barkeep. Zinto follows us, and then Lathum and DV both switch to BK in self defense.

Later on is a bit of a mess. Mauboy could be seen as defending Darth, voting Barkeep when the tide was turning back a bit. Darth switches to Lathum though, so if Mau and Darth are wolves they're not coordinating well. Hoops has a good vote there, as does Racer. I vote Lathum, I would like to say a bit of a daring rescue if I was a wolf, but it's certainly not looking like a good vote without knowing Lathum's allegiance. Zinto's vote I think is neutral, I wolf would be a bit crazy to tie it up at that point, but I guess leans positive.

Pluses: BK, Mckerney, Hoops, Racer
Minuses: Autumn, Racer, NTN, Mr. Bug, Mauboy

To anyone: Do you think it's probable there is more than 1 wolf vote on Lathum?

[Autumn]

I keep returning to the fact that day two, Danny was planning a fake reveal that he knew would eventually get him killed. He was planning it because he knew he was likely to get lynched. I started off the day very early with a vote on him. It seems, very, very probable that the wolves would therefore plan to make sure the other wolves came at Danny. They were hoping to learn something from his death (who Thor was) or draw the hammer to them, there was no real reason to try to defend Danny.

In my theory the wolves would make sure that one of the most vocal opponents of Danny was a wolf, that's why I've been pointing my finger at Barkeep this whole time. He seems the most likely suspect. Looking at the voting the other early vote on Danny was Zinto, so I suppose I should widen my tunnel vision a bit and consider Zinto also. Maybe there just wasn't a wolf on early or maybe my theory is wrong, but it seems unlikely one wolf wouldn't vote him before his reveal.

[Chubby]

that doesn't answer my question

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Chubby

To anyone: Do you think it's probable there is more than 1 wolf vote on Lathum?

Unless Mauboy or Heinz are wolves and got stranded on a useless vote, I think it's fairly probable there's two wolves on Lathum. DV is a self defense so his vote has to be there. If there are three other wolves ... well all three could have piled on Darth, but not likely, especially considering not everyone's around and deadline. I think one more Lathum voter is very possible, but depends a lot on Mau and Heinz.

[Autumn]

dola

Does that?

Not everybody's always talking to you Chubby ;-)

[Chubby]

since I haven't voted yet I'll make it official as I got suckered into covering another store's shift tonight...

vote telle

[Autumn]

For lack of any more time to go over this, I'm going to go with Zinto. He cast what looked like the killing vote on Danny day one, voted early on him day two, cast at "burying" vote on Darth day three, voted early on Thomkal day four. Given Danny's play I have to assume they were looking to play off his death, and Zinto seems poised to have done that. I'll try to go back and look at this posts later to see if they jibe with his votes, but I've got to get to work now.

vote zinto

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Unless Mauboy or Heinz are wolves and got stranded on a useless vote, I think it's fairly probable there's two wolves on Lathum. DV is a self defense so his vote has to be there. If there are three other wolves ... well all three could have piled on Darth, but not likely, especially considering not everyone's around and deadline. I think one more Lathum voter is very possible, but depends a lot on Mau and Heinz.

so if there is at least 1 more wolf vote on lathum, that leaves telle, bug and you

[Autumn]

I am aware of that, yeah.

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I am aware of that, yeah.

yet, you didn't vote for any of them

[Autumn]

I don't really vote off the "there must be a wolf spread" theory. It doesn't seem to always work. Maybe the wolf voted early and wasn't there to move a vote, maybe they didn't coordinate (most of the time when I'm a wolf we never really talk about where we're voting). And then there's outliers like Mauboy and Heinz, if they were both wolves we could be chasing that numbers theory for three votes and not catch anything.

But yes, if someone wants to play that game, three of us are in the thick of it.

[Chubby]

if zinto was a wolf, don't you think he'd pull out all the stops to try and stop DV from getting lynched and having the hammer randomed?

Why wouldn't he tie it up by voting lathum with 8 minutes to go instead of voting DV? I doubt anyone saw my vote with 7 mins left coming.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Chubby

if zinto was a wolf, don't you think he'd pull out all the stops to try and stop DV from getting lynched and having the hammer randomed?

Why wouldn't he tie it up by voting lathum with 8 minutes to go instead of voting DV? I doubt anyone saw my vote with 7 mins left coming.

In my experience wolves never stick their necks out there like that for each other. Chances are too good they end up handing over two wolves instead. If they thought your vote was coming for Lathum, maybe they would, or maybe they didn't think of it. i"ll have to go back and read the thread later.

[EagleFan]

I think it is just a possible that the wolves started with the fake hammer and Telle started with the real one.

Of course a wolf is not going to ome out and claim having a hammer on day one at this point.

If Telle's random pass ends up in their hands they are not going to advertise that they have a hammer and pass it amongst themselves.

They want to get the fake one into circulation as soon as possible but would not want it known that there is a second. That would make the pass to Narc a pass to a wolf as they wouldn't have known they were getting it at the time they passed it.

The idea of attempting to earn trust holds just as true with his actions as it does with the case against Telle, even moreso in this case.

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

I think it is just a possible that the wolves started with the fake hammer and Telle started with the real one.

Of course a wolf is not going to ome out and claim having a hammer on day one at this point.

If Telle's random pass ends up in their hands they are not going to advertise that they have a hammer and pass it amongst themselves.

They want to get the fake one into circulation as soon as possible but would not want it known that there is a second. That would make the pass to Narc a pass to a wolf as they wouldn't have known they were getting it at the time they passed it.

The idea of attempting to earn trust holds just as true with his actions as it does with the case against Telle, even moreso in this case.

She didn't.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

The idea of attempting to earn trust holds just as true with his actions as it does with the case against Telle, even moreso in this case.

At the risk of repeating myself. Why do I put the first vote on the person I know is holding the hammer in this scenario? But yeah, we don't know that DV actually had the hammer when he was lynched - that's conjecture. Your case defending Telle is "why does she claim to have the Hammer if she's a wolf"? I believe I've offered a this-side-of-the-borderline-paranoid explanation for it. So I ask you "Why do I make it clear that I have a Hammer if I'm a wolf"? I hand it to Hoops and inform him that I've passed it to him. Why? If I'm a wolf and Telle isn't then nobody knew I had the hammer any more than they knew that she had it before she claimed it.

You also seem to be ignoring the fact that while I cast the first vote on Darth and defended both Lathum and Barkeep on day three both Telle and Autumn cast votes that can be viewed as trying to save Darth, and voted to save each other at the expense of a villager yesterday. And the fact that Autumn has been tying himself in knots today trying to find a borderline likely candidate when the most obvious candidate for him to vote is Telle, one of only three people left who voted Lathum on day three.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

And the fact that Autumn has been tying himself in knots today trying to find a borderline likely candidate when the most obvious candidate for him to vote is Telle, one of only three people left who voted Lathum on day three.

So Telle is the only likely wolf left in the game? Really? Not voting Telle means I'm a wolf?

I've stated numerous times that the fact that Telle told us she had the hammer is pretty good circumstantial evidence she's a villager. There are a score of other people with nothing even remotely that good in their favor, so I'm more likely to vote them than her.

All three people who voted for Lathum could be villagers. Or Mr. Bug could be the wolf. I certainly do not think we need to constrain ourselves to those three candidates. Why would we? I didn't vote Telle on Friday, I'm not sure why I suddenly should on Monday. Just because it might save my skin? I'm not going to lynch a likely villager for that.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Zinto

I would rather vote Barkeep then either DV or Lathum. I don't have a read on DV at all and I hope he can be more active the rest of today/tomorrow if he survives and I just don't think Lathum is a wolf.

Zinto staked a pretty firm position on not voting Lathum this day, saying he thought the blowup with Lathum had been a misunderstanding. Here he gives DV a convenient pass while pushing Barkeep. Earlier in the day he was on NTN, which is interesting given the next quote.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Zinto

Another reason I am probably going to vote for ntn is I think Barkeep was just an over anxious villager not a wolf over selling his ideas to gain trust. I am going to look back over yesterday and see if there are any other people I want to look more closely at.

This is his rationale for voting NTN, as well as later saying that he thought NTN's vote on Danny might have been a "trust grab."

Given that later in the day Zinto prefers Barkeep over DV and Lathum, this post seems quite interesting. He votes NTN since Barkeep seems a villager and then a few hours later Barkeep is more likely a wolf than Darth and Lathum.

Sounds like a wolf keeping the vote away from Darth to me.

[Narcizo]

You seem to be offering an awful lot of trust based on admission of having an item. Telle's voting record is pretty suspicious, I don't see how you would overlook that just because she said that she passed off the hammer at random. Particularly as you have the luxury of knowing that you're a villager as well. Maybe I'm just a less trusting soul than you.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

You seem to be offering an awful lot of trust based on admission of having an item. Telle's voting record is pretty suspicious, I don't see how you would overlook that just because she said that she passed off the hammer at random. Particularly as you have the luxury of knowing that you're a villager as well. Maybe I'm just a less trusting soul than you.

I think I'm just not limiting myself to this small selection of villagers. Telle's certainly not trusted, but I"m not limiting myself to two or three people to choose from as it seems you are suggesting.

[Autumn]

So to clarify, Zinto goes from thinking Barkeep is an overeager villager, to considering him more suspicious than DV, who he says he "has no read on." That seems convenient for Darth, and along with the other things in his voting record seems worthy of making him a 'person of interest'.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Chubby

She didn't.

She didn't what?

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Thor's Hammer - Telle >> Narcizo >> Hoops >> Chubby (Fake) disappeared
Thor's Hammer - ?? >> ?? >> ?? (DV?) >> Racer >> Chubby
Odin's Spear - Narcizo >> J23 disappeared?
Fenris Fetters - Lathum >> Chubby >> J23 disappeared?
Flaming Sword - EagleFan >> (random) >> ?? >> Hoops >> Telle
Mistletoe MrBug >> Hoops >> J23 >> MrBug >> Racer

So I added EF's story about the sword. No one else is coming out to claim having possessed the sword along the way?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Telle

Well according to my notes, Darth Vilus hasn't checked in yet... so maybe that's just yet to come.

Originally Posted by Telle

DV is the only one not to check in yet. And we're missing 8 of 21 votes at this point.

Going through Telle's posts (to try and find more about the item) she twice mentions DV by name on Day 1. As a wolf she would be far more aware about another wolf being around than the rest of us would be. This to me is a strike against her.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Going through Telle's posts (to try and find more about the item) she twice mentions DV by name on Day 1. As a wolf she would be far more aware about another wolf being around than the rest of us would be. This to me is a strike against her.

Maybe you're not aware of this Barkeep, but Telle posts in every single game she's in who has checked in so far and who hasn't. I think others who have played with her repeatedly should vouch for this.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Telle

Btw, just to be open and honest.. I had an item yesterday. Since I had no particular trust for anybody specifically, I let it get reassigned randomly.

Alright here's the post. It comes late in the day (after she's found a reason to move from Danny to ntn btw). Do we know if any known wolf has received an item D2? It seems important for us to know how much the wolves knew about the passing mechanic when this post was made. For instance would people know who they received an item from? If the wolves suspected people knew who passed them an item there is no harm in making this post. If the wolves knew that people didn't know who passed them an item I think it's a plus for Telle.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Maybe you're not aware of this Barkeep, but Telle posts in every single game she's in who has checked in so far and who hasn't. I think others who have played with her repeatedly should vouch for this.

I do indeed know Telle was not exaggerating when she said "according to my notes". She is indeed a fastidious note take and hence often the person that supplies vote counts when the GM isn't around.

[Autumn]

I've been assuming, and am pretty sure it's true, that we already had several revealed items and knew the passing mechanics at that point. I remember being really suspicious at the time that she had passed it randomly, and I feel like we already had learned about how passing works. But I agree, that's the definite question. If the wolves were still unsure if they could get outed that way, it would be safer to reveal. I suppose maybe the wolves were worried if they passed a fake hammer anonymously that people would be suspicious of it. That seems unlikely - if I were a wolf I would rather take the chance the fake hammer fizzles than to link my name to it.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Does anyone want to cop to passing me an item?

This is the first post-passing mention I found. It seems pretty clear right from this moment that unless Hoops is faking he doesn't know who passed him something. Immediateyl after Chubby and Lathum start discussing the item Lathum passed to Chubby, and it's also clear Chubby doesn't know who passed it to him. So I think by the time Telle made her 'reveal' it should have been clear a wolf could get away with an anonymous pass.

[Autumn]

I should say that was at 10:56 p.m., right after deadline.

[Barkeep49]

Ok then I agree that Telle's reveal is worth some trust.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Day Four

#1348 09:37 Autumn votes Barkeep (1)
#1349 09:39 Narcizo votes Thomkal (1)
#1374 11:57 EagleFan votes Hoops (1)
#1385 12:47 Barkeep votes Hoops (2)
#1395 12:56 Hoops votes Autumn (1)
#1399 13:15 Barkeep unvotes Hoops (1)
#1399 13:15 Barkeep votes Autumn (2)
#1405 13:43 Lathum votes Autumn (3)
#1406 13:45 EagleFan unvotes Hoops (0)
#1406 13:45 EagleFan votes Barkeep (2)

#1413 14:05 Zinto votes Thomkal (2)
#1415 14:27 Heinz votes Thomkal (3)
#1441 16:09 Racer votes Thomkal (4)
#1461 17:53 ntn votes Autumn (4)
#1471 18:21 mauboy votes Autumn (5)
#1481 19:02 Chubby votes Telle (1)
#1482 19:02 mckerney votes Autumn (6)
#1496 19:26 MrBug votes Telle (2)

#1504 20:44 Thomkal votes Telle (3)
#1506 20:49 EagleFan unvotes Barkeep (1)
#1506 20:49 EagleFan votes Telle (4)
#1512 21:09 Barkeep unvotes Autumn (5)
#1512 21:09 Barkeep votes Telle (5)
#1514 21:10 Autumn unvotes Barkeep (0)
#1514 21:10 Autumn votes Telle (6)

#1517 21:16 Telle votes Autumn (6)
#1529 21:26 Autumn unvotes Telle (5)
#1530 21:26 Lathum unvotes Autumn (5)
#1530 21:26 Lathum votes Telle (6)
#1537 21:34 Autumn votes Thomkal (5)
#1541 21:35 Telle unvotes Autumn (4)
#1541 21:35 Telle votes Thomkal (6)

#1560 21:46 EagleFan unvotes Telle (5)
#1576 21:53 Lathum unvotes Telle (4)
#1576 21:53 Lathum votes Thomkal (7)
#1585 21:55 EagleFan votes Thomkal (8)
#1592 21:59 Mauboy unvotes Autumn (3)
#1592 21:59 Mauboy votes Thomkal (9)

Thomkal 9 - Narcizo (1349), Zinto (1413), jeheinz72 (1415), Racer (1441), Autumn (1537), Telle (1541), Lathum (1576), EagleFan (1585), mauboy1 (1592)
Telle 4 - Chubby (1481), MrBug708 (1496), Thomkal (1504), Barkeep49 (1512)
Autumn 3 - hoopsguy (1395), ntndeacon (1463), mckerney (1482)

Looks like an afternoon/evening of multiple runs:
1.) Autumn first to 3 votes.
2.) Thomakl surges out to 4-3 lead with 3 straight votes (1413-1441)
3.) Autumn then closes with 3 votes to 6-4 lead (ending at 1482)
4.) Telle takes the lead, 6-5 over Autumn, with votes from a bunch of people I trust more than the other surges (ending with 1514)
5.) Autumn moves into "lets make a deal mode" with Telle, resulting in Thomkal surging into the lead and getting lynched.

I'm going to re-read this right now, but what made the late voters not named Telle and Autumn think this was such a good move?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Telle

You're barking up the wrong tree Chubby. Unfortunately I have nothing to defend myself with though. I'm just sick of Narcizo and hoops and whoever else keep saying that I passed Narcizo a bad hammer when nobody, not even I, know if that's the truth or not.

vote Autumn

Lumping me into those arguments is creative. I went along with the line of questioning on the hammer but I did not vote for Telle or push hard on this angle with any reasoning over the course of the day. I'm much more interested in Telle right now after her near-demise and the fact that she was online on a Friday night to help actively orchestrate the vote moves. I'm wondering if anyone has time to see if Telle had posted during the final hour of deadline on the previous three days of this game?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Racer

Looking at the the vote history (from Narcizo on page 27), Telle's vote record doesn't look that bad.

On day one, she unvoted Telle and put a second vote on Danny (when Chubby and Eaglefan both had 3) to consolidate (looked back at her post). Players also with 1 vote at the time were Zinto, Thomkol, ntndeacon, and myself so it's not like she was limited in options to consolidate.

Choosing to stay on ntndeacon on day two when he was completely out of the running is a bit more curious though.

This right here is why I didn't focus on Telle as much on Friday afternoon. I thought that "consolidate" post was something that worked in her favor.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Racer

I'd be fine voting for Thomkol or Autumn by the way.

Looking back on the vote record and thinking about the events of yesterday, I found it a bit odd that Autumn was Barkeep or DV all day and then at the end went with Lathum instead.

I can't understand why all the votes went to Thomkal and Autumn skated by without a single person going his direction over the last couple of hours.

[Barkeep49]

A second vote for a person doesn't feel like consolidation to me.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Chubby

mau - care to weigh in?

I'll defer to those who were around at the deadline, but this isn't the first time this game that Mau has been waffling on his vote and then ended up going in a direction that wasn't pro-villager. My suspicion of him is very high at this point - probably him and Autumn neck-and-neck as I'm re-reading.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

A second vote for a person doesn't feel like consolidation to me.

Nope, not a ton but as Racer noted there were other people to pick from and you don't need to use the comment "consolidating" as if to suggest Danny should be on the short list.

I'm still more focused on Telle than I was on Friday afternoon. I don't think this was a villager/villager/villager run-off with all that movement. But right now I think Autumn is the wolf, assuming there was only one.