Werewolf CLX - Atlantic City - GAME OVER

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

If you have specific questions, things you feel are most damning to my position, then please throw one or two of those out, and I'll be glad to respond as best as I can.

The Jackal has played a great game, clearly. We have seen this before, the wolf who throws everything in at the start (or near the start) and hopes he has done enough to avoid being looked at too closely at the end. The Jackal is certainly capable of pulling that off.

There's nothing really damning in your position at all. Sure there's bit and bobs but nothing fantastically incriminating. In most games I wouldn't be voting you now. But Jackal has so many more positives and not just at the start of the game (which is an argument you could make against you). He revealed and withheld from using the nightkill a couple of nights ago after I had (eventually) argued that he probably shouldn't use it. I don't think he needed to go to those lengths to get trust at that stage. I believe the only reason he didn't get killed instead of mau was because there was a chance mau got the seer while Jackal couldn't have. Then there's day five which, admittedly, I'm starting to think was DV bidding on the casino manager, but the fact that he got a visible bid in there is a huge plus for him.

My guts telling me nothing between you two - I know Jackal is probably under-rated as a wolf. My gut is crap anyway. All I've got to go on is the evidence and if Jackal has gone to those lengths as a wolf, when there's still the chance that seer scans will out him or he will be killed then I'd be amazed.

I've read through most of thread today and I really don't see much to grill Jackal about. Maybe I'm missing something obvious in which case, sure you can point it out. It would have to be pretty damning though. Sure he was a bit crap when everything fell to pieces around the time of the Britrock lynch, but so were the rest of us. I couldn't believe how much of a slamdunk it looked then and how it looks now.

Obviously I'm doubting my decision, following yesterday's debacle. I hate being in end game situations. But I'd rather mess up because someone has taken incredible risks AND had luck as a wolf than mess up just because I started second guessing myself.

Vote Chief Rum

I want to hear from Jackal and you again before I nightfall. If you're a villager I'm sorry but I don't really think anyone can blame me for this vote.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Here's my theory. The Jackal buys the nightkill on N1, expecting to kill someone. He sends it after an uber strong player. Danny would be an excellent target there. Creaky is a puss, so he doesn't make the kill. So now Vegas knows Danny is AC. That is why we don't get a kill that night, not because The Jackal targeted fontisian.

Gah! That actually makes sense.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

There's nothing really damning in your position at all. Sure there's bit and bobs but nothing fantastically incriminating. In most games I wouldn't be voting you now. But Jackal has so many more positives and not just at the start of the game (which is an argument you could make against you). He revealed and withheld from using the nightkill a couple of nights ago after I had (eventually) argued that he probably shouldn't use it. I don't think he needed to go to those lengths to get trust at that stage. I believe the only reason he didn't get killed instead of mau was because there was a chance mau got the seer while Jackal couldn't have. Then there's day five which, admittedly, I'm starting to think was DV bidding on the casino manager, but the fact that he got a visible bid in there is a huge plus for him.

My guts telling me nothing between you two - I know Jackal is probably under-rated as a wolf. My gut is crap anyway. All I've got to go on is the evidence and if Jackal has gone to those lengths as a wolf, when there's still the chance that seer scans will out him or he will be killed then I'd be amazed.

I've read through most of thread today and I really don't see much to grill Jackal about. Maybe I'm missing something obvious in which case, sure you can point it out. It would have to be pretty damning though. Sure he was a bit crap when everything fell to pieces around the time of the Britrock lynch, but so were the rest of us. I couldn't believe how much of a slamdunk it looked then and how it looks now.

Obviously I'm doubting my decision, following yesterday's debacle. I hate being in end game situations. But I'd rather mess up because someone has taken incredible risks AND had luck as a wolf than mess up just because I started second guessing myself.

Vote Chief Rum

I want to hear from Jackal and you again before I nightfall. If you're a villager I'm sorry but I don't really think anyone can blame me for this vote.

I can't fault the way you are looking at things. I would likely make the same decision if I didn't know I was a villager. All I can say is that if your vote stays here, we lose this one.

[Narcizo]

OK. I've been looking back through the glasses of paranoia and there is actually quite a lot of doubtful things about Jackal over the last days.

Meh! I was happy an hour ago. "We'll lynch Chief, he's a baddie and that will be that"

I DON'T want to have to go through all this.

[Chief Rum]

Narc, here's another thought for you. Per the Jackal, he used the nightkill on fontisian and she came up as a wolf.

My question you should put to The Jackal, as a villager who had a service that is not permanent (he isn't a killer the rest of the way, per say, there is little incentive to not reveal), is, "Why did it take you (The Jackal) nearly all day to reveal that you had found a wolf?"

The Jackal revealed fontisian as a wolf from his nigthkill attempt with two hours to go before deadline. Ten hours of silence. While I got my seer scan out right away. JAG came out with his Cookie's Ladies on brit. Neither of us found definitive proof our targets were wolves and we revealed fairly quickly.

Why did it take all day for Ta presumed villager the Jackal to announce he found a wolf on Day Two?

[Chief Rum]

VOTE THE JACKAL

[Chief Rum]

Obviously, that vote is a foregone conclusion for me.

[Narcizo]

I've been presuming that the wolf went solely after the thief that took my money. But path was still around so he could, presumably, have been made to bid on the thief and the wolf could also get the hitman. I thought it strange that the wolf chose to go after the thief and didn't at least try for the hitman. I presumed that they were short on money at the time. But how likely is it that the last wolf would be short of money.

Then Jackal unfortunately uses up all his money on the hitman so he can't take part in any organised bid after Path dies. While the thief ensures that I can't either.

And there's the mysterious parting gift from Britrock as well.

[/b]Unvote Chief Rum[/b]

I hate you Chief, why couldn't you just let me be happy, see the results and think "Fuck" and that would be the end of it. Now I have to worry about it all evening.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I've been presuming that the wolf went solely after the thief that took my money. But path was still around so he could, presumably, have been made to bid on the thief and the wolf could also get the hitman. I thought it strange that the wolf chose to go after the thief and didn't at least try for the hitman. I presumed that they were short on money at the time. But how likely is it that the last wolf would be short of money.

Then Jackal unfortunately uses up all his money on the hitman so he can't take part in any organised bid after Path dies. While the thief ensures that I can't either.

And there's the mysterious parting gift from Britrock as well.

[/b]Unvote Chief Rum[/b]

I hate you Chief, why couldn't you just let me be happy, see the results and think "Fuck" and that would be the end of it. Now I have to worry about it all evening.

Haha well, I'm thrilled you will reconsider, because I want us to win this one after having the wolves on the ropes for so long, but sorry I couldn't let you be happy there.

I'll be around if you have questions, of course. I'm sure The Jackal will be here soon, too. And sorry it's going to be such a tough decision.

I am frankly amazed at the game The Jackal has played.

[Narcizo]

unvote Jackal

[Narcizo]

Chief - I don't really have time but can you see if you can find as much about Brit's spending/bidding as possible. Jackal you'd better do it as well to check that Chief doesn't pull the wool over my eyes.

Jackal, how much did Brit give you and when?

[Narcizo]

Unvote Chief RUm

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by britrock88

I can tell you about money and such, if you like. I haven't really had a lot happening, and I missed some bets last week on account of my busy-ness.

I didn't win any money on bets until last night, when I won $x52 on a bet I split 3 ways. I had used my entire $1000 to buy the service that linked me with Jackal. Any other questions about what I've been up to? Let me know.

Moving up posts as I find them. This was last Tuesday night (N6). brit was lynched on Wednesday (D7).

My night-day guesses are based on Autumn's listing britrock as lynched on D7.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

FWIW I haven't exchanged many PMs with Brit at all, think we've both been busy. I asked who he would've gone after if not DT, and he said Danny but it was post-seer scan and he admitted it wasn't much in the reasoning dept.

I don't get a vibe one way or the other from the limited PMs we've shared. I need to look at some updated voting history before I decide if there are better candidates to go after.

Not sure if this has value, but this post from The Jackal was just before the one from britrock that I moved up.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by path12

I guess the next question regards the fact that Zinto used the seer to clear Jackal, who had given us his Vegas compatriot fontesian.

So either Jackal is Vegas and went for trust by framing font and then get cleared by Zinto -- or Zinto tried to get some cred by clearing Jackal.

If someone trusted gets the seer it seems like it would not be a bad idea to rescan Jackal.

I found this funny, as path apparently suggested exactly the scenario I have suggested for The Jackal, only he did it last Tuesday.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by britrock88

I know I'm not trustworthy in this game. For the sake of the village, though, know that I've missed enough votes, bids, et cetera that NKing me would only really enlighten the village as to my role. A seer scan would do the same thing -- and I welcome that.

Narc, for your records, I bought the dating service, though Jackal beat me to the punch in announcing that.

britrock confirming he bought the dating service with The Jackal. This was the first weekend and was technically D4 of the game.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

So I don't see the harm in revealing this, but brit won the friend4life service and used it with me to PM the rest of the game. Would be quite the chunk of money to spend for a wolf on the possible notion that a fairly trusted player might have his back because of it. I'm interested in what he has to say, but I would've voted DT either way today (even though I actually bet on brit).

Here is The Jackal revealing brit won the service and picked him.

Did they say they could transfer money, too? I don't see that in their posts here, but maybe I missed it. Seems like they could PM.

I worked backwards, so if you want to read these posts in time order, go from this post and back up.

[Chief Rum]

I didn't see a lynch/bet breakdown from brit, but then we didn't really push for that until after we lynched him.

I am heading out to lunch, but I'll be around.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

The Jackal revealed fontisian as a wolf from his nigthkill attempt with two hours to go before deadline. Ten hours of silence. While I got my seer scan out right away. JAG came out with his Cookie's Ladies on brit. Neither of us found definitive proof our targets were wolves and we revealed fairly quickly.

Yeah, but that's exactly what I would have done as well. (if I had the possibility to do so). I always slow-reveal so that the day won't be a total wash. Sound village practice. Of course, yes, it might mean that plans were being hatched but I don't think its particularly condemning.

[Narcizo]

If Jackal had voted fontisian out the of the blue on day one and left his vote on her and it turned out she was a wolf it would make a lot of people pretty suspicious of him. But there's a difference between one vote and a guaranteed death.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Moving up posts as I find them. This was last Tuesday night (N6). brit was lynched on Wednesday (D7).

My night-day guesses are based on Autumn's listing britrock as lynched on D7.

$x52 matches Jackal's story I think. I presume Britrock isn't lying.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

$x52 matches Jackal's story I think. I presume Britrock isn't lying.

There's no need for The Jackal to lie about his association with britrock or anything to do with them, because brit initiated the contact as a villager, not knowing if the Jackal was a wolf or villager.

As a wolf, the Jackal could just play that normally. Meanwhile, he could be getting fed funds from his teammates and the like.

I would imagine with a simple scratch sheet, one could put together what their "public" money should be and act accordingly.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

If Jackal had voted fontisian out the of the blue on day one and left his vote on her and it turned out she was a wolf it would make a lot of people pretty suspicious of him. But there's a difference between one vote and a guaranteed death.

I can understand not revealing right away and seeing if you can draw someone out a bit. But keep in mind, your sound villager practice of withholding this information for a bit is based on experience with regular WW games, where you have set, permanent roles and presumeably abilities that last beyond that day. In this game, every service is a one off. So there is less reason to withhold info in this game than in the normal game.

In fact, withholding it for a significant time is actually more likely to hurt the village than help it.

And even if you choose to hold that info for a few hours, The Jackal held it all the way to almost 90 minutes to deadline. He waited until after the seer reveal by me, and after JAG revealed the Cookie's Ladies use.

[Chief Rum]

Or I should say withholding it for a significant time, if it doesn't necessarily hurt the village, is far less likely to help the village. There is significantly less advantage to holding onto that info in this game than there is in a normal game, IMO.

[Narcizo]

So I don't think that was a slip by Jackal.

Coffee talked about a discrepency between Jackal's report of his use of the night kill and his own.

[Danny]

I wish I was alive, then someone could say why Danny still alive on day 11

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

So I don't think that was a slip by Jackal.

Coffee talked about a discrepency between Jackal's report of his use of the night kill and his own.

What wasn't a slip?

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

There's no need for The Jackal to lie about his association with britrock or anything to do with them, because brit initiated the contact as a villager, not knowing if the Jackal was a wolf or villager.

Yeah but I was hoping for clear evidence of a slip-up by the Jackal. Because I can't get past the bids on day five. Path killed murra5y night six so I don't think there can be any funny business with two bids. So either DV bid on the casino manager OR Jackal can't be a wolf. There isn't any clearer evidence than that and I really, really wish we could be sure that DV didn't bid on it.

I kind of think what happened to Path would be a bit harsh after just one warning (presumably that which Coffee got if Jackal was lying).

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

What wasn't a slip?

It would be a slip if he reported his bids and bets but it didn't line up with the money he reported spending on the hitman or, ermmm, something.

[Narcizo]

OK Jackal hasn't been around now and I don't want this to turn into the Chief and Narkle show. I'm going to step away. I'm starting to lean towards a no lynch vote today, just because it doesn't seem fair that you guys have to rush-think things in a couple of hours to fit in with my schedule.

[Narcizo]

The villager should put a back-up bid on the prostitutes again to make sure we're covered if it goes no lynch. I really hope Jackal gets on before 16:00.

[The Jackal]

Back in a few minutes to catch up and respond, but:

vote chief rum

[The Jackal]

Was at a funeral this morning, sadly

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Was at a funeral this morning, sadly

Sorry to hear that, Jackal.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Sorry to hear that, Jackal.

Can give condolences after, first we have to nail a wolf.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

He also bought the night kill on the first night. Who as a villager does that?

Why did The Jackal even target fontisian with a nightkill of all things? If you're a villager, why would you use that service? Buy it to keep it out of wolves' hands, sure, but use it, with no information to go on, on some random villager, a relatively newcomer to our games? Does that sound like a logical villager Jackal move? In retrospect, it's really quite odd, and I am not sure why I didn't focus on it earlier.

I've said it before, I knew full well this was a huge risk to be taking as a villager. I decided I would go after someone who I thought voted in a wolfy spot, and at worst, would take out a villager and have money to play with. Obviously I did not want the latter to happen, but I knew it was a possiblity after I sent the order.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Narc, here's another thought for you. Per the Jackal, he used the nightkill on fontisian and she came up as a wolf.

My question you should put to The Jackal, as a villager who had a service that is not permanent (he isn't a killer the rest of the way, per say, there is little incentive to not reveal), is, "Why did it take you (The Jackal) nearly all day to reveal that you had found a wolf?"

The Jackal revealed fontisian as a wolf from his nigthkill attempt with two hours to go before deadline. Ten hours of silence. While I got my seer scan out right away. JAG came out with his Cookie's Ladies on brit. Neither of us found definitive proof our targets were wolves and we revealed fairly quickly.

Why did it take all day for Ta presumed villager the Jackal to announce he found a wolf on Day Two?

This one is easy - I didn't want it to turn into an early runaway. Much better to see how people voted first, and get some history to examine, especially since I wouldn't know if font knew a hit had been used on her.

I also had out of game reasons, being that I was very busy at work that day (and on the way to exercise when I posted the result on my phone) - but it was my full intention not to reveal until later in the day.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Chief - I don't really have time but can you see if you can find as much about Brit's spending/bidding as possible. Jackal you'd better do it as well to check that Chief doesn't pull the wool over my eyes.

Jackal, how much did Brit give you and when?

Brit gave me $452 right before he placed his nightfall vote on himself on D7

[The Jackal]

vote nightfall

[The Jackal]

Let me know if you have anymore questions, Narc. I would say don't overthink this one but it looks like you've done a lot of thinking already today.

[Chief Rum]

Was that with the wire service, Jackal?

Or did the friend for life thing also include a money exchange? Sorry if this is obvious from previous discussion, and I just missed it.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Or I should say withholding it for a significant time, if it doesn't necessarily hurt the village, is far less likely to help the village. There is significantly less advantage to holding onto that info in this game than there is in a normal game, IMO.

We can discuss this more from a theoretical perspective after the game if you like, but you are definitely honing on on things in an attempt to make me look bad. What benefit would it be if I was a wolf and waited until near the end of the day to reveal that information?

I stand by the decision to hold off on revealing. The decision to use the NK in the first place was a risky gamble, so I stand behind it only because it worked.

[Chief Rum]

VOTE NIGHTFALL

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Was that with the wire service, Jackal?

Or did the friend for life thing also include a money exchange? Sorry if this is obvious from previous discussion, and I just missed it.

The friend service also included the money exchange, I don't think we mentioned it in the thread.

[Chief Rum]

Since The Jackal nightfalled, I'm fine with it as well, and leaving this in Narc's hands.

Sorry to put the weight of this on you, Narc. I hope you make the right decision.

I'm hear to answer questions as well, of course.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

The friend service also included the money exchange, I don't think we mentioned it in the thread.

Useful omission.

[The Jackal]

If you are considering me to be a wolf, I think it would have been a dumb move for Zinto to clear his only other (original at least, since we don't know when Danny turned) teammate. If anything that would paint more of a target on my back as a wolf, which it didn't necessarily do, but it certainly wouldn't provide endgame favors. That clear has been thrown out since we knew Zinto was a wolf, so in essence it was only to buy himself a little trust by clearing someone most people thought was good at the time.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Useful omission.

Up until his death I had nothing to show me that he was actually a villager, and he was definitely leaning towards wolfiness - so I didn't want to go overboard with that connection in case the wolf team was trying to use me. He actually asked me for money at one point, which I certainly wasn't about to do.

Obviously the wolf team paranoia with Brit is irrelevant here, but you can see what I was thinking at the time.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

If you are considering me to be a wolf, I think it would have been a dumb move for Zinto to clear his only other (original at least, since we don't know when Danny turned) teammate. If anything that would paint more of a target on my back as a wolf, which it didn't necessarily do, but it certainly wouldn't provide endgame favors. That clear has been thrown out since we knew Zinto was a wolf, so in essence it was only to buy himself a little trust by clearing someone most people thought was good at the time.

It would be a risky move, yes, but only if the village comes back around to investigate it. And Danny may have already been indentified or even brought over to the Vegas side by then.

Is it any more risky than choosing bidding on the nightkill as a villager and choosing a random player for that nightkill on the very first night?

You can't say, "Yeah I made a risky move, accept it" and not acknowledge the possibility someone else would also make risky moves.

[The Jackal]

I know this isn't easy Narc, but if both your analysis (we can throw out the planned day since someone obviously manipulated path) and your gut has leaned you away from suspecting me, it's generally smarter to trust that.

I've been forthcoming with information, have done what I could to help take down wolves, and pretty much laid an egg in the last few days like everyone else, since we were working off incorrect theories. Not my best game, but I hope the efforts were not in vain!