09-12-2007, 01:37 PM | #1601 |
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Day 5 voting pattern:
1230 - Cronin votes Hoops, first vote 1232 - Purdue votes Crim 1234 - Purdue unvotes Crim 1237 - Purdue votes Crim, first vote 1247 - Eagle votes Cronin, first vote 1266 - Crim (by e-mail) votes Cronin, first player to two votes 1281 - Raiders votes Hoops, tying with Cronin 1282 - Chief votes RendeR, first vote 1284 - Olie votes RendeR, three way tie at two votes w/Cronin and Hoops 1287 - Hoops votes Path, first vote 1289 - RendeR unvotes Cronin, votes Rum (don't think he had voted yet ...), first vote for Rum 1296 - Cronin unvotes Hoops, votes Rum. Still three way tie with Cronin, RendeR, and Chief 1315 - Raiders unvotes Hoops, votes RendeR. This puts RendeR as first to three votes 1318 - Pass votes Path, giving him his 2nd vote 1321 - MrDNA votes Path, tying him with RendeR atop the leader board 1350 - Purdue unvotes Crim 1366 - Purdue votes Rum, three way tie with Path and RendeR now. Note - RendeR does not post at deadline, do not believe he was around. This passes the deciding vote to Path, barring any vote changes 1372 - Path votes for Chief, putting him on line for lynch 1375 - EagleFan unvotes Cronin, votes Path, creating a 4-4 tie between Path and Chief |
09-12-2007, 01:37 PM | #1602 |
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Day 5 post review:
Post #1223 - Purdue suspects Crim for pushing MrBug, questions on Cronin/Rum discussion Post #1232 - Purdue votes Crim based on the MrBug push Post #1234 - Purdue unvotes Crim after Cronin says that case against MrBug was strong Post #1237 - Purdue revotes Crim, hopes that bartender blocks Cronin again Post #1240 - Purdue thinks that Cronin/Chief might be the Goth Post #1245 - Path says he doesn't think we learn from Day 1 or 2 voting (wrong, helped me with building suspicion for him) Post #1248 - Purdue asks if anyone has a read on MrDNA, he is very quiet Post #1251 - Path says that both DNA and Arlington are quiet, may have to look at them soon Post #1259 - Purdue trusts only Hoops and Olie Post #1260 - Purdue explains trust of Hoops and Olie. EagleFan probably good, wants to hear more from DNA and Arlington. Wants to understand why Crim was pressing for Bug so hard, why Cronin is defending Crim over lynch. Some thoughts that don't say much on RendeR. Post #1275 - Path says he is 9th in posts, so not all that quiet Post #1277 - Eagle posts trust list. PB = backed off a little bit, Path = no read Post #1279 - Path doesn't think Day 1 votes are useful. Trusts Crim, neutral on Olie. Thinks RendeR might be the type of guy who would use knife and admit it as wolf. Not sure why I trust Eagle. Agrees with me on distrust of Purdue and Raiders, says he voted for Purdue. No bad vibe off of Pass. Thinks we are giving quiet guys too much room. Post #1281 - Raiders says he passed serving tray (key to his trust later in game) Post #1294 - DNA asks about item pass mechanics Post #1299 - Cronin says he is thinking about joining me on Path for votes, not in his COT Post #1303 - Raiders says he passed tray to Crim (Crim had tray later in night - did wolves miss this, think it was bluff, or count on going through tray w/brutal wolf?) Post #1305 - Cronin thinks Chief is more likely a wolf that Path Post #1318 - Pass thinks we should look at Path/Cronin with Bug not a wolf (following my Day 1 RPI vote theory) Post #1321 - DNA agrees with Pass, follows him with his vote Post #1325 - Path believes Neon was goth. Leans towards good with Crim, Eagles, Raiders, and Olie. Leans towards bad with Purdue and RendeR. Thinks either Chief or I are bad Post #1326 - Path adds that he leans towards Pass as bad Post #1330 - Path says if he had a vote without self-preservation, it would be towards Purdue Post #1334 - Pass is worried that we are headed towards a tie Post #1338 - Purdue stands by his vote for Crim Post #1340 - Hoops encourages Purdue to put vote on one of leaders Post #1341 - Pass tell Purdue how it will look if he leaves vote on "throwaway" candidate Post #1342 - Purdue summarizes his play - suspects Crim, Cronin, Chief. Doesn't buy that RendeR is a wolf Post #1343 - Purdue is convinced to "bail" on Crim vote Post #1344 - Pass again tells Purdue to make a call on a leader if he has different levels of trust between them. Follows up in next post telling Purdue it ultimately is his call Post #1346 - I cover posts by Purdue. One of conclusions is that I don't think a wolf would ask if they could self-vote as he did earlier in game Post #1347 - I agree with Pass that Purdue gets to make the call, don't listen to us if he doesn't agree with our thoughts Post #1348 - Olie joins in on Purdue vote, says "do what is best for village" which in this case is casting meaningful vote Post #1349 - Purdue feels stuck with moving his vote. Trusts Eagle and olie the most, Hoops has slipped "because I'm not sure where to place you in all of this" Post #1350 - Purdue unvotes Crim (18 minutes to deadline at this point) 1351 - Eagles "Day 1 post review" 1352 - I tell Purdue that it is not a two-man race, but a four-man race as there are others just one vote behind 1354 - I tell Purdue that he finds himself in a tough werewolf spot 1356 - Purdue, "Hoops, based on what you said, I'm going back over the top four and making a choice" (13 minutes to deadline) 1359 - Purdue is learning paranoia part of game 1360 - Path quotes his day 1 posts, says they are in character 1361 - Olie suggests that Cronin makes sense as vote for Purdue, given his "distrust" lists 1366 - Purdue appreciates advice from Olie, but goes with vote for Rum (3 minutes left) to force 3 way tie 1368 - Purdue thinks vote for RendeR is a bad play 1372 - Path thinks Purdue wants him to go RendeR, so follows him onto Chief (1 minute left) 1373 - Eagle "this is bad, only a wolf would want a tie tonight, especially if a fellow wolf was on the chopping block" 1374 - Lathum "deadline" at 9:30 PM 1375 - EagleFan moves vote at 9:30 PM, creating a tie between Path and Chief 1376 - Pass "this is seriously messed up" 1379 - Lathum "Eaglefan's vote WILL COUNT", posted at 9:31 PM 1382 - Path reiterates that he was trying to out-think the "most likely bad guy" Purdue 1383 - Purdue says vote on Chief was related to his Goth discussion 1390 - Pass to Eagle "Due, look at the posts!!! YOU forced the tie!" 1395 - Eagle says he thought Purdue was protecting Path, "oddly you are not on my suspect list" to Path 1398 - RendeR shows up at 9:38 PM, says he thinks Rummy and Raiders are wolves based on late movement. This is his first post since #1289 at 7:14 PM. |
09-12-2007, 01:58 PM | #1603 |
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Thoughts on the posts:
1.) Path distrusts the following: Purdue, RendeR, Pass, either Chief or Hoops Purdue distruts the following: Crim, Chief, Cronin Would Path have listed multiple wolves in his list? We know he did put one in already with Purdue. 2.) Both Purdue and Path trusted Oliegirl - any reason to question this more closely? Could they have been helping build the consensus trust around her for nefarious purposes? Would have to dig further back to see if this idea has any legs ... 3.) RendeR cares more about Bengals than werewolf, no matter what side he is on. Would a wolf leave themselves in grave danger (is there any other kind?) like he did? Maybe if he thought he had enough backup, but I'm struggling with this a little bit 4.) Pass was definitely around at the deadline and didn't move to help Path. He was very vocal in his frustration with Eagles post-deadline. 5.) Points for DNA for vaulting Path into real trouble down the stretch, as this vote started to force the maneuvering by Purdue and Path. I think this helps his standing quite a bit, as do comments about looking at quiet guys and citing him instead of Arlington initially. I'm sure there is more here, but it will have to wait until after my meeting. |
09-12-2007, 02:31 PM | #1604 | |
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Ooh, I've never been accused of "nefarious" things before, I kind of like the sound of that...but alas, nothing nefarious is going between me and any other player... |
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09-12-2007, 02:48 PM | #1605 |
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09-12-2007, 03:16 PM | #1606 |
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I wish, actually I was packing and getting ready to move to a village with less werewolves |
09-12-2007, 03:54 PM | #1607 |
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Not sure if I'll be on again before nightfall, so..
VOTE RENDER Just following my gut instinct |
09-12-2007, 06:23 PM | #1608 |
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Vote count:
olliegirl - 1 RendeR (1561) RendeR - 2 Chief Rum (1572). oliegirl (1607) hoopsguy - 1 Passacaglia (1573) RendeR actually votes and unvoted Chief Rum after his oliegirl vote but no unvote for oliegirl. How does that work? Is his vote still on oliegirl? |
09-12-2007, 06:25 PM | #1609 |
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vote...
Not sure yet. I think I suspect a couple of furballs but I'll see how the votes start to swing. |
09-12-2007, 06:26 PM | #1610 |
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I'd like to know who passed me the serving tray. That would give me some trust at least. The problem with that is that that person could be dead and a wolf could "admit" to it without anyone disputing it.
Anyhow, I'm going with Pass on this one tonight. VOTE PASSACAGLIA |
09-12-2007, 06:27 PM | #1611 |
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I'll check in later to see if there are any other good candidates out there, but hoops seems to be on the level, Chief killed a wolf, and Pass is the only other vet on here.
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09-12-2007, 06:37 PM | #1612 | |
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Quote:
That's right, I'm a rookie. |
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09-12-2007, 07:17 PM | #1613 | |
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Can I ask what makes you think hoops is on the level? I'm willing to change my vote, given good reason. |
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09-12-2007, 07:20 PM | #1614 |
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Pass, I'll answer any questions you have if you do the same.
If you can, try to recall why you stuck with Path yesterday in the Day 5 vote instead of the other leading vote candidate - Chief, Cronin, and RendeR. |
09-12-2007, 07:24 PM | #1615 | |
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You'd best get some pepto darlin, cause your gut is so wrong its rediculous. |
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09-12-2007, 07:26 PM | #1616 | |
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Like I said earlier, I went into the post review expecting to condemn you but I'm softening the stance a little bit. You had chances to move away from the Path vote - could have gone Cronin instead using the Day 1 vote logic - but didn't. Awfully risky as close as it was if you were playing as a wolf, given how shallow the votes were and the number of people around who could change at deadline.
I hated your distrust list from earlier this morning: Quote:
It seemed like it was intended to be divisive - kind of quick hits that were not well thought out, with the goal to see what stuck. This was modified in the next post, to some extent, with the reversal on EagleFan. I'm not suggesting that there list is wolf-free (I don't know) but I think there are more interesting cases to be made for the candidates than the way you presented them. |
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09-12-2007, 07:27 PM | #1617 | |
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Quote:
RendeR, someone pointed out earlier that you had two outstanding votes. I would recommend that you do an UNVOTE ALL and follow it up with who you want to have voted to avoid (more) confusion. |
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09-12-2007, 07:32 PM | #1618 | |
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Quote:
Was that a question? I think I'd said a few times before that I thought there was a wolf in the group of path/cronin/Bug. I was wrong about Bug, right about path, and the jury is still out on cronin. |
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09-12-2007, 07:36 PM | #1619 |
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UNVOTE ALL
VOTE OLLIEGIRL |
09-12-2007, 07:37 PM | #1620 | |
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Quote:
I'll admit to that quick hit style, not very thought out. I'd got into a nice groove in the last few games, with being around almost all the time at work. Things have been more difficult at my new job, and I'm pretty much just playing in the evening (where I'm in and out a lot), and in the morning (where I just have a little time while eating breakfast to catch up on everything). I don't want that to affect people's votes -- it is what it is. There probably are more interesting cases for some of the candidates. There's a lot of vote history there, which I unfortunately haven't had the time to make much of. Can you give me a summary of your thoughts on them? |
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09-12-2007, 07:55 PM | #1621 |
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09-12-2007, 07:58 PM | #1622 |
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Had some board issues for a few minutes there.
That "groove" you refer to is part of the reason I've wondered why we haven't seen you as engaged this game. Congrats on the new job, but it is messing up my reads The vote history was actually pretty lousy today. I had a spreadsheet on my laptop with the info from the four days that were not runaways and I wasn't able to put much together. I'll fire up the laptop in a couple of minutes and post it to see if others can detect patterns that I'm missing. Here is what I consider a fairly likely scenario - PurdueBrad didn't vote for Path (a wolf) or RendeR, but instead a secondary candidate Chief, because he was in a position to choose between a pair of wolves. I think that is your most compelling case for RendeR. Oliegirl - she built her trust for putting the Day 1 vote on Neon, but if he was the Goth (which is now pretty widely believed) then what value does that have now? Also, both of our wolves stated they trusted her when the wolf team was in a position of strength. Could they have been working to build up the accepted trust of a candidate who had some trust based on a fallacy? OK, time to move over to the laptop ... |
09-12-2007, 08:16 PM | #1623 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Let's see if this works:
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09-12-2007, 08:22 PM | #1624 |
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What does the blue and red mean?
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09-12-2007, 08:26 PM | #1625 |
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Color-coded to match votes with known wolves. My theory is that wolves would try to distance themselves from each other when possible. But on the tighter races, with their own involved, it might not be possible.
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09-12-2007, 08:30 PM | #1626 |
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Cronin, your votes are very close to Path's - probably an element of self-preservation in there but still not the kind of trail wolves would like to leave, all things considered. A point in your favor, at least where I sit.
There are no wolf votes for RendeR, although Path stated that he distrusted him at one point. That doesn't look as good for him, in my opinion. |
09-12-2007, 08:31 PM | #1627 |
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I see. So I voted with path twice, and with Purdue once. By that standard, hoops, you and I have the worst voting records. Excluding the bug vote, Raiders, Pass, and Chief have the best voting records.
I actually think however you analyze it, hoops and I have terrible voting records. Was there any day other than 5 where a known wolf got a significant share of the vote? |
09-12-2007, 08:37 PM | #1628 |
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Weird theory here - RendeR tells his fellow wolves that he is out for MNF since his Bengals are in the game, that it is up to them not to let things get screwed up this night. He figures he is fine, as there are a bunch of wolves and we villagers are clueless at this point anyway.
Well, RendeR is no longer around to save himself with a vote move - he doesn't post for over two hours leading up to deadline and only eight minutes after deadline. His vote sits on Chief. So now what do the wolves do? There are two wolves tied for the lead - RendeR and Path. They have enough votes to save RendeR, but how to pull it off without looking bad? Path is able to play the self-preservation card. But what about Purdue? Well, he hems and haws about having to move his worthless vote on Crim, looking for someone to enable his behavior. Several of us do (Pass, Olie, and me) and he now has to pick between Cronin and Chief. Hmm, Chief isn't likely to be around to save himself, right? He normally isn't around at deadline? So Chief it is. Everything works out already, with a little more exposure than they would like, but they cover for this by having Path snipe at Purdue saying he is most likely wolf and then going "reverse psychology" with the votes. Maybe that will help divert attention in days to come, and anyway they just got rid of a dangerous player in Chief. And then EagleFan ties it up. Damn, but at least there is confusion everywhere. This isn't the worst news, right? Well, then there is the block. It starts to go downhill from there. I'm probably wrong on some of the details here - likely giving too much credit for coordination by the wolves - but this makes a fair amount of sense to me if I accept that Cronin is a good guy. |
09-12-2007, 08:41 PM | #1629 | |
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That's just it - if "worst" equals voting with the wolves, then I think "worst" is the least likely to be a wolf. As you point out, there is no other day besides 5 (that wasn't a runaway on a wolf) where a known wolf attracted a significant number of votes. The wolves had every reason to scatter their votes to avoid attention. |
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09-12-2007, 08:42 PM | #1630 |
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Why is it necessary to accept that I'm good for that scenario? I mean, what do you think the vote looks like if Purdue, path and I are all wolves?
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09-12-2007, 08:47 PM | #1631 |
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Cronin, I don't "have" to accept the fact that you are good, but I expect the wolves want to mix their late votes in with some villagers. And I'm thinking it is a bit of a stretch to think we had three wolves among our top four contenders on that night. If you are bad, that was the only possible move for the wolves and it didn't matter at all if Chief was going to be around or not. In this scenario I already have three wolves voting for Chief, I'm struggling to believe that four would pile on together here.
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09-12-2007, 08:49 PM | #1632 |
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Dola (let's see if I can sneak one in) - they wouldn't want to keep mirroring your votes if at all possible. Obviously desperate times would call for desperate measures, but four wolves all on the same guy? They were in control of the game, I personally don't think there would be a reason to take that risk here.
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09-12-2007, 08:53 PM | #1633 |
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I'll take my shot with it tonight, see if it generates any voting movement.
VOTE RENDER |
09-12-2007, 08:54 PM | #1634 |
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09-12-2007, 08:55 PM | #1635 |
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Hoops, does the fact that Purdue was the brutal wolf change your thinking at all? That maybe they were trying to get a 2 or 3 for 1 from him, by framing, say, Render (not sure if that works with the votes)?
I just have a hard time seeing Render as a wolf given what happened with him and Barkeep. |
09-12-2007, 08:58 PM | #1636 | |
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Just to clarify, this is based on votes after NC made his reveal Day 1. I think all three of them voted for RPI after that. |
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09-12-2007, 09:00 PM | #1637 |
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Right now I feel like our wolves are likely to be in the following group:
RendeR, Pass, Arlington And if Arlington is a villager he has a chance to show this with his item - I think that has bought him leeway for today. So for me it came down to the other two I list, and I felt like RendeR looked worse upon post/vote review than Pass. |
09-12-2007, 09:00 PM | #1638 | |
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I think that based upon his play this game, it seems as if he's a villager. Then again, this is based upon past games. His recent posts seem to indicate more of a wolfish nature to me, so I'm stuck here. In other words, it doesn't seem like him to throw out a vote to see what happens (not at this late in the game). I dunno. UNVOTE PASS VOTE RENDER I'll go with his line of logic here, but if RendeR is a villager, I know I'm voting for hoops next go around. |
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09-12-2007, 09:02 PM | #1639 |
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09-12-2007, 09:02 PM | #1640 | |
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Purdue wasn't in any trouble on this day, it was Path who was. So I'm not sure that I follow. Nor could they have anticipated that Crim would block them and that Path would be stabbed, giving us the luxury of looking this closely at voting records with time left in the game. Just like I feel I'm probably giving the wolves credit for more coordination than they likely had, I think you are giving them credit for being more clever than they could have been. Unless I'm missing your point entirely, in which case I would ask you to re-state it for me. |
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09-12-2007, 09:03 PM | #1641 |
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Vote Mr. DNA
Render's got all the momentum, so this is more a statement vote than anything else. |
09-12-2007, 09:03 PM | #1642 | |
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Sorry about asking again...looks like you just answered me. |
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09-12-2007, 09:04 PM | #1643 | |
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I have been so suspicious of several of your posts ... it is a good thing that you are near-cleared through the Crim thing or I would be going nuts trying to construct cases around set-up posts like this one. |
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09-12-2007, 09:05 PM | #1644 | |
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Now I come guns blazing at you? You realize I have put a vote on you like three or four of the past six days, right? And that I have been espousing your wolfishness since you killed BK on Day Two? Heck, you even return-voted me a time or two. How did you forget all that? And if you think after all this that I am wolf, you really aren't thinking things through too well. |
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09-12-2007, 09:05 PM | #1645 |
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09-12-2007, 09:06 PM | #1646 | |
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What I mean is (and I'm not sure this makes sense), Purdue made a late switch onto Chief. Had Chief gotten lynched, perhaps we would have come after Purdue the next day - when he shows up wolf, we lynch whoever it looks like he was protecting. I don't know, though, path actually was in trouble, so maybe that doesn't make any sense. So I guess my question is do you see any other scenario where the fact that Purdue was the brutal wolf may have entered into their thinking? |
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09-12-2007, 09:06 PM | #1647 | |
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RA's been near-cleared? Man I've missed a lot this game. Was it because he passed Crim the serving tray? |
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09-12-2007, 09:07 PM | #1648 |
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09-12-2007, 09:07 PM | #1649 |
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09-12-2007, 09:09 PM | #1650 |
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