Werewolf CLX - Atlantic City - GAME OVER

[Coffee Warlord]

It's unfair to me because there was ammo in a very important vote that shouldn't have been there.

It's unfair to wolves because there's a clarification due to an honest mistake that probably does make me a bit more trustworthy.

[Narcizo]

Crap.

[Coffee Warlord]

I was just about to say. Off me.

[Coffee Warlord]

Though if you fuck up the ladies & the bodyguard, I'll never forgive your ass.

[Narcizo]

Still think it makes more sense for the villager to get the prostitutes. They've got a 100% chance of targeting the wolf. I only have a 50% shot.

I don't have time to think this through.

[Coffee Warlord]

True, actually.

[Coffee Warlord]

You get the BG and guard ... yeah, coin flip I guess.

[Coffee Warlord]

Just don't waste your time bidding on the NK. Force the wolf's hand there.

[Narcizo]

How sure are you it's Chief? Let me know. Sorry man. And the rest of the village.

vote nightfall

Let's get this over with then. Jackal and Chief I think you should nightfall as well. Fuck.

[Coffee Warlord]

No, I'm not sure it's Chief at *all*.

But he's been more on the gun to vote me is all, and the Zinto/Jackal thing seems just a smidge overly aggressive of a move.

But no. I'm not sure at all.

[Narcizo]

OK - Chief I'm not locked on you. Make sure to get your bid if you're a villager. If you're the wolf don't bother eh?

[Coffee Warlord]

Not sure there WAS a good way to handle the cash error. I shoulda been more careful to look at the numbers and catch it before it became an issue, but work + sleep deprivation does things. However it worked itself out once it got spotted was gonna end unfairly.

[Chief Rum]

I'm fine to move this foward. Sorry if you're not the last wolf, CW. You're right, it's a crummy way for things to happen.

I got my bid in.

VOTE NIGHTFALL

[Autumn]

Day 10 Voting

3 Coffee Warlord ------ Narcizo (Nightfall), Chief Rum (Nightfall), The Jackal (1587)
1 Chief Rum ------------ Coffee Warlord (1594)

[The Jackal]

vote nightfall

[Coffee Warlord]

Hit it, kids.

vote nightfall

[Chief Rum]

I guess our nightfalls coincided with Autumn disappearing for a bit (no doubt with RL responsibiltiies). Bad timing. I guess it will be nearly regular time before we see nightfall. Oh well...

[Autumn]

I'll run things when I can but not until I'm done getting the kids in bed.

[Autumn]

The list of suspects grows smaller and smaller. The residents of Atlantic City are sure that they must have narrowed it down to include the guilty party, the mobster responsible for turning this city into a laughing stock, and a criminal haven. After a local hacker releases one suspect's bank information on the Internet citizens go wild examining every receipt and transfer. Certain they've found the trail of money that led to the professional killer abroad in Atlantic City, Coffee Warlord is dragged out of the cafe and brought to the courthouse. "I can explain," he calls out. "There's a letter from the bank explaining their error. It's right on my nightstand!" But it's too late, the DA explains. "Sorry, the papers have been processed. You'll have to wait until your hearing." That's too bad because five minutes later the papers are brought forth. "Yep, everything looks good," the DA says with a shrug and a pained smile. The news teams descend like sharks.

Coffee Warlord was a Resident of Atlantic City.

[Autumn]

DAY TEN WINNING BIDS
Mick "Stones" McGee - $0
Donna Black Investigations - $150
Cookie's Ladies - $2,000
Sandy Back Messenger Service - $0
Casino2Casino Wire Transfer - $0

BLACKMARKET SERVICES - HIRE AT YOUR OWN RISK
The Money Hole - $0
Nicky the Trigger, hitman - $0
"Smiling Jane" Smith, thief - $0

[Autumn]

The kids got ready quickly and are reading quietly, so I managed to process things. Will be in and out until they're all the way done. Night Ten has begun.

[Autumn]

Everything is processed. Bets are due by 9 am EST.

[Chief Rum]

Wow, $2000? I didn't come close.

[The Jackal]

Yeah I have $337, certainly didn't win the ladies. Which means both of you won bids.

[Narcizo]

Yeah neither of you are fools unfortunately.

[britrock88]

The intrigue!

[Narcizo]

This all mean Narkle is going to die/win with a smile on his face. At $2000 I hope I get something more upclass than what the others got.

[Narcizo]

I'd like to think that, if the numbers had matched up, I would have had more belief in Coffee but I suspect I'm kidding myself. And, as he didn't have any money, I don't see any way this would have played out anyway. I couldn't risk leaving him alive if he couldn't protect me if he was a villager. Basically it switched the days around, where I would have to choose between Jackal and Chief yesterday. At least this way I don't have to worry about Coffee being a wolf. Maybe no lynch would have made more sense if I did half-believe him. Should have checked the money a lot earlier. Oh well!

[Narcizo]

One of you guys has played a crazy, daring game as a wolf. Whichever of you it is you've got a lot more balls than I have.

[Narcizo]

Day One

#103 11:13 mauchow votes fontisian (1)
#104 00:40 path12 votes Zinto (1)
#105 07:58 narcizo votes britrock (1)
#114 09:40 Jackal votes Coffee (1)
#133 13:57 Coffee votes DaddyTorgo (1)
#134 14:25 JAG votes Coffee (2)
#136 15:45 Bullet votes JAG (1)
#138 16:01 fontisian votes Bullet (1)
#140 16:11 Darth Vilus votes JAG (2)
#142 16:51 Path unvotes Zinto (0), votes Bullet (2)
#144 16:53 InBlue votes JAG (3)
#145 16:56 Chief votes Bullet (3)
#146 17:18 Brit votes DaddyTorgo (2)
#152 19:07 Zinto votes DaddyTorgo (3)
#155 19:49 DaddyTorgo votes Coffee (3)
#163 20:16 Danny votes Coffee (4)
#178 20:32 murra5y votes JAG (4)
#184 20:40 InBlue unvotes JAG (3), Votes DaddyTorgo (4)
#191 20:46 JAG unvotes Coffee (3), votes Bullet (4)
#193 20:52 DaddyTorgo unvotes Coffee (2), votes Bullet (5)

1 Fontisian -------- mauchow (103)
1 Britrock88 ------- narcizo (105)
2 Coffee Warlord - The Jackal (114), danny (163)
4 DaddyTorgo ----- Coffee Warlord (133), britrock88 (146), zinto (153), Inblue (184)
3 JAG -------------- bulletsponge (136), Darth Vilus (140), murrayyy (178)
5 bulletsponge ---- fontisian (138), path12 (142), chief rum (145), JAG (191), daddytorgo (193)

Not a fat lot of help. Both could be said to be helping fontisian/zinto with their votes. Jackal didn't really have any choice with his vote - he's not going to vote someone to two at that stage. Chief has more options and could have voted fontisian. He choose to consolidate more when he had the option to spread to fontisian. In retrospect his vote helps the Las Vegas team more but you can't really say it was a wolfy vote.

[Narcizo]

Maybe wolf-Jackal would hold onto his vote more and see what happens before laying it down. I think this is why it's hard for me to do vote analysis. I'm so used to having to get my vote in early whatever that I don't really know how a non-time zone challenged wolf votes. Chief's vote is very definitive as it pretty much ensures that no Las Vegas wolf is under the hammer.

[Narcizo]

Day Two

#247 13:19 mauchow votes murra5y (1)
#253 14:10 murra5y votes mau (1)
#261 14:56 Narcizo votes mau (2)
#262 15:04 JAG votes Darth Vilus (1)
#264 15:10 mauchow unvotes murra5y (0), votes DV (2)
#269 15:25 JAG unvotes DV (1), votes murra5y (1)
#274 15:53 Coffee votes Danny (1)
#275 15:54 path votes mau (3)
#298 18:45 DV votes mau (4)
#301 18:52 murra5y unvotes mau (3), votes path (1)
#302 18:53 fontisian votes DV (2)

JAG reveal

#304 19:02 JAG unvotes murra5y (0), votes Britrock (1)
#306 19:11 fontisian unvotes DV (1), votes Britrock (2)
#309 19:24 Coffee unvotes Danny (0), votes DV (2)

Jackal reveal

#311 19:25 Jackal votes fontisian (1)
#314 19:30 Coffee unvotes DV (1), votes fontisian (2)
#316 19:34 Zinto votes fontisian (3)
#317 19:34 murra5y unvotes Path (0), votes fontisian (4)
#320 19:40 mau unvotes DV (0), votes fontisian (5)
#324 19:44 Chief votes fontisian (6)
#331 20:03 InBlue votes Britrock (3)
#333 20:05 Danny votes Britrock (4)
#343 20:56 DaddyTorgo votes Britrock (5)

3 Mauchow ------- narcizo (261), path12 (275), darth vilus (298)
5 britrock88 ------ JAG (304), fontisian (306), InBlue (331), danny (333), daddy torgo (343)
6 fontisian -------- The Jackal (311), coffee warlord (314), zinto (316), murrayyyyy (317), mauchow (320), chief rum (324)

[Narcizo]

Nothing to see here. Jackal's vote is, obviously, consistent with his story. Zinto shows that Las Vegas have already decided to throw fontisian under the bus. Chief got an early vote in on Danny, which breaks with Jag's idea that the LV wolves would hold onto their votes. All in all pretty neutral.

And I've just realised what a total spazz I am.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

When he, presumably, doesn't even know that JAG is a villager?

Of COURSE he knows Jag is a villager. Even if he's a wolf, he scanned him. God I amaze even myself at how dumb I am.

[Narcizo]

So it's possible that LV wolves were going AC wolf hunting. They want to try find and convert one of the best players;
d1 they scan Jag, clear him
d2 they scan Danny, clear Jackal

[Narcizo]

Day Three

#401 09:18 Narcizo votes InBlue (1)
#423 10:00 Jackal votes murra5y (1)
#436 10:36 murra5y votes Zinto (1)
#437 10:42 JAG votes DaddyTorgo (1)
#451 12:35 path votes murra5y (2)
#452 12:45 Chief votes Brit (1)
#457 13:20 Coffee votes DV (1)
#461 14:00 mauchow votres Brit (2)
#469 14:13 path unvotes murra5y (1), votes DaddyTorgo (2)
#477 15:22 Narcizo unvotes InBlue (0), vote DaddyTorgo (3)
#482 16:13 Brit votes DaddyTorgo (4)

#483 17:02 InBlue votes Brit (3)
#485 17:21 Coffee unvotes DV, votes Brit (4)
#486 17:38 Jackal unvotes murra5y (0)
#490 18:45 Danny votes Brit (5)
#499 20:19 Jackal votes Brit (6)
#501 20:22 DaddyTorgo votes Brit (7)

#502 20:28 JAG unvotes DaddyTorgo (3), votes InBlue (1)
#511 20:46 murra5y unvotes Zinto (0), votes InBlue (2)
#513 20:47 Brit unvotes DaddyTorgo (2), votes InBlue (3)
#516 20:52 Coffee unvotes Brit (6), votes InBlue (4)
#522 20:54 Zinto votes InBlue (5)
#526 20:55 Jackal unvotes Brit (5), votes InBlue (6)
#537 20:59 Chief Rum unvotes Brit (4), votes InBlue (7)

2 DaddyTorgo -- path12 (469), Narcizo (477)
4 Britrock88 ----- mauchow (461), InBlue (483), danny (490), daddy torgo (501)
7 InBlue - JAG (502), murrayyyy (511), britrock88 (513), coffee warlord (516), Zinto (522), the jackal (526), chief rum (537)

Not a fantastic amount of help either way. I'm pretty sure that Danny is still AC at this stage. To all intents and purposes for our purposes their votes were identical. I'll go back and check out if there's any explanation from Chief about not chasing Danny.

[Narcizo]

Day 4

#636 09:56 Narcizo votes DaddyTorgo (1)
#645 10:31 path12 votes DaddyTorgo (2)
#651 11:20 mauchow votes DaddyTorgo (3)
#673 13:12 Danny votes DaddyTorgo (4)
#674 13:16 Chief Rum votes britrock (1)
#680 14:36 JAG votes Zinto (1)
#688 15:28 The Jackal votes DaddyTorgo (5)
#694 15:38 JAG unvotes Zinto (0), votes britrock (2)
#706 16:53 Coffee Warlord votes DaddyTorgo (6)
#712 18:43 DV votes Coffee Warlord (1)
#713 19:20 Zinto votes britrock (3)
#714 19:28 DaddyTorgo votes britrock (4)
#725 20:43 JAG unvotes britrock (3), votes DaddyTorgo (7)

7 DaddyTorgo -- Narcizo (636). path12 (645), mauchow (651), Danny (673), The Jackal (688), Coffee Warlord (706), JAG (725)
3 Britrock88 ----- Chief Rum (674), Zinto (713), DaddyTorgo (714)
1 Coffee Warlord ---- Darth Vilus (712)

OK. If Danny is converted he might be signalling that DT is Atlantic City. Do the LV wolves want to avoid being targeted by the AC wolves by piling on so they vote for someone else, or do they want to spread their vote one on each?

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Nothing to see here. Jackal's vote is, obviously, consistent with his story. Zinto shows that Las Vegas have already decided to throw fontisian under the bus. Chief got an early vote in on Danny, which breaks with Jag's idea that the LV wolves would hold onto their votes. All in all pretty neutral.

And I've just realised what a total spazz I am.

Let's double that. Come on, I bet some of you guys mix up Switzerland and Sweden. It's Coffee who votes Danny not Chief - Chief doesn't vote until after Jackal's reveal. Exactly as JAG suggests a wolf would.

[Narcizo]

Yeah, I'm not going to be moved from voting Chief I don't think. I've never been more sure of something since, well, since I voted Coffee yesterday.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I do like the theory that the wolves sit on their vote until they know what's happened with the night kill. Say hello DT, Danny, Chief and Zinto.

Post #593. Could I really have named four wolves so long ago? Just seems so out there to be true. If it is then Jag absolutely rocks.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Day 9 Voting

3 Coffee Warlord ----------- path12 (1394), Narcizo (1416), Coffee Warlord (1444)
3 Path12 -------------------- Coffee Warlord (1401), the jackal (1440), mauchow (1447)

Easy for me to say now but a vote for Coffee is more suspicious than a vote for Path in these circumstances.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

This hasn't changed. Wolf-Jackal takes the odd risk but I just don't believe he sacrifices a team-mate to get himself trust on day two, when it could make him a kill/conversion target of the other team. He doesn't know for sure that the hitman doesn't kill wolves. I don't think even Lathum would do this on day two.

DAY FIVE WINNING BIDS (3 wolves)
Mick "Stones" McGee - $500 - Claimed by Jackal, used on self
Donna Black Investigations - $896 - Claimed by mau, used on Zinto
Casino2Casino Wire Transfer - $125 . Claimed by narcizo, used on ?
Freddie von Maur, Casino Manager - $700

BLACK MARKET SERVICES - HIRE AT YOUR OWN RISK
Joe "Creaky" Reitzler, hitman - $501
Mikhail Vavilov, arms dealer - $1,066

This hangs on whether DV bid on the Casino Manager or not. If he didn't then Jackal can't be a wolf. In any case it's got to be a big plus in Jackal's favour. Unless I'm missing something, if Jackal is a wolf then DV will have given him the win by not mentioning it here.

Yeah. There's no way I'm voting Jackal today. If you're a baddy Jackal I tip my cap to you.

[Narcizo]

The only thing that put Chief close to Jackal yesterday was the IDIOTIC belief that Chief would be clearing someone he didn't know the allegiance of, when he (or his team) had obviously scanned Jag. Probably me getting tunnel-vision on Coffee. Sorry about that Coffee. Hopefully I can turn the trend of woeful village play tomorrow and pull out one of the rare last day village wins.

[Narcizo]

Obviously I don't know Jackal isn't the wolf. But even if my gut were saying he was, I couldn't ignore the disparity in the evidence. I don't see any reason to get Chief to jump through hoops (not Hoops - I can see lots of reasons for that ) when I've made up my mind.

Possibly the optimal village play tomorrow would be to vote no lynch and see how much financial reserves the wolf has. But that seems far to gamey to me. Let's get it over with.

[Autumn]

Sorry I'm late, had to go in to my son's school for a bit. Will catch up and process in a moment.

[Autumn]

It's closing in on two weeks here in Atlantic City and the gambling is still good. You'd love to stay longer, but you're a bit worried what with all these murders and everything. You check the paper before heading out, making sure it's safe to hit the casino. Seems the coast is clear. No murders last night.

[Autumn]

Here's what's for sale in Atlantic City.

DAY ELEVEN SERVICES FOR HIRE
Mick "Stones" McGee - Hired muscle for the guy who wants some protection
Donna Black Investigations - When you need somebody checked out
Cookie's Ladies - Send somebody a "friend" to entertain them through the night
Sandy Back Messenger Service - When you need to send a message fast
Casino2Casino Wire Transfer - When you want to send a buck to a friend

BLACKMARKET SERVICES - HIRE AT YOUR OWN RISK
The Money Hole - money lending for the desperate gambler
Nicky the Trigger, hitman - they say that Nicky will make a guy disappear for you
"Stumpy" Jones, thug - this guy delivers a lesson with his fists, one it takes a while to recover from

[Narcizo]

Donna Black says that Hoops is a wolf and we should lynch him.

I'm glad the wolf saw fit to reinvest (with interest) the money he took from me in my well-being. So no result here.

[Chief Rum]

So you're locked in, Narc? That is very disappointing, if so.

I can't really argue what you're seeing. I had reasons for every decision I made (I would have to go back and look to remember my train of thought on some of those from days ago). So I'm not going to go on some massive response to your points.

If you have specific questions, things you feel are most damning to my position, then please throw one or two of those out, and I'll be glad to respond as best as I can.

The Jackal has played a great game, clearly. We have seen this before, the wolf who throws everything in at the start (or near the start) and hopes he has done enough to avoid being looked at too closely at the end. The Jackal is certainly capable of pulling that off.

I can't really explain it. I'm not the last wolf.

[Chief Rum]

My theory? Let's assume the Vegas wolves start as The Jackal/Chief (the unknown last wolf), Zinto and fontisian. That seems to be the thinking, right?

Let's put The Jackal in that spot. The Jackal in this game has Zinto clear him and also fingers fontisian. This is all within, what, the first day or two of the game? That seems to be a lot of stuff involving that Vegas team that all involves The Jackal, don't you think? He also bought the night kill on the first night. Who as a villager does that?

Here's my theory. The Jackal buys the nightkill on N1, expecting to kill someone. He sends it after an uber strong player. Danny would be an excellent target there. Creaky is a puss, so he doesn't make the kill. So now Vegas knows Danny is AC. That is why we don't get a kill that night, not because The Jackal targeted fontisian.

Why did The Jackal even target fontisian with a nightkill of all things? If you're a villager, why would you use that service? Buy it to keep it out of wolves' hands, sure, but use it, with no information to go on, on some random villager, a relatively newcomer to our games? Does that sound like a logical villager Jackal move? In retrospect, it's really quite odd, and I am not sure why I didn't focus on it earlier.

So here we are. It's Day Two. The Jackal knows Danny is AC, and presumeably this opens up the opportunity to convert Danny to Vegas. So that's not three wolves, that's four, really. So now is when you throw one of your own under the bus to gain massive trust. fontisian volunteers for whoever knows what reason (maybe she knows she will be busy, maybe they feel she will be under suspicion, the reason doesn't matter, only the result).

So The Jackal acts like he went for a nightkill on fontisian, and throws her to the village for trust. Knowing he and Zinto can still bring over Danny--one of the best WW players on this forum, BTW--to supplement their numbers.

They didn't spend much money on Creaky on Night One, just $350. fontisian would have given them all of her money, too. Money would not have been an issue for Vegas going into the Night Two. So they bid big for the seer, $1100. Maybe they went for the hitman, too, who knows. But they might have figured the other mob would have an opportunity for conversion as well if they found them. So they decided to go for the seer and be sure the AC mafia didn't grab that role (or the village, of course).

When they get the seer, The Jackal thinks that even another layer of "trust" from the village would be a great help. Zinto is UTR, not the first suspect. He's probably not going to be targeted for a lynch or kill anytime soon. So they have him come out and "clearing" The Jackal. Even if Zinto is found pretty quickly and doubt is (rightfully) put on The Jackal scan, remember, the Vegas mafia still has Danny in their backpocket, too, assuming they can put his conversion into place.

So now you have The Jackal with a clean seer scan and he's fingered a wolf, in the first 2-3 days of the game. That's pretty squeaky clean, don't you think? And it all involved the Vegas mafia.

It sounds complicated, but really, once the Creaky hit failed on Night One, it would not have been difficult to pull off at all.

And it worked because The Jackal has rode that all the way to the end here.