Werewolf XXIII - Lost - Game Over! Survivors win!

[path12]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

Just realized this day ends tomorrow. What's up with that?!

Night actions took awhile and with VDay and all there were going to be people unavailable -- but I believe AE is willing to move up if the votes are there.

[pennywisesb]

Originally Posted by path12

Night actions took awhile and with VDay and all there were going to be people unavailable -- but I believe AE is willing to move up if the votes are there.

Hopefully this is the case or else its going to be hard to facilitate discussion the rest of the night.

[path12]

Well, I'll do my part then, since I'll likely be one of those people not around much tonight....

VOTE ALAN T

Going with Blade while I'm still looking over the past few days.

[Swaggs]

Vote is due tomorrow night, correct?

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

I already think the best idea is to lynch you, and let you duke if you can or die a wolf.

I don't like jumping on an idea after it has been posted, but this was my exact thought as I was catching up.

If SnDvls is the duke then he will be cleared and then he can kill Alan or Desnudo. That way we make 2 players roles (simple or not) known which is only going to help us in the long run.

And if he is not, then he will die an other.

VOTE SNDVLS

[Celeval]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Now out of all of those scenerios, voting for Sndvls in EVERY case ends up with either a wolf dead, or the least possible wasted time.

A reasonable set of arguments. One hole I see: what if Sndvls is a survivor, but is bluffing about his role? I'm not against it, and am leaning this way so far, but throwing it out there.

Side question around how things generally work... I've gotten the impression that at times there are duplicates of roles. What happens if a Duke is targeted, pings off to another character, and that character is also a Duke. Pinball lynches? :-D

[Desmond]

Originally Posted by pennywisesb

I think we are ALL being played by Blade in some way. I just haven't pinpointed it yet.

Agreed.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Celeval

A reasonable set of arguments. One hole I see: what if Sndvls is a survivor, but is bluffing about his role? I'm not against it, and am leaning this way so far, but throwing it out there.

I'm not lying and I highly doubt there is more than one duke-like role.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Vote is due tomorrow night, correct?

correct tomorrow @ 9 PM CST

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by pennywisesb

Vote SnDvls

besides just to keep it on Alan or I any other reason for voting me over Alan?
this will help in future analysis, thanks.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by path12

Well, I'll do my part then, since I'll likely be one of those people not around much tonight....

VOTE ALAN T

Going with Blade while I'm still looking over the past few days.

any other reason other than following blade? this will help in future analysis, thanks.

[Desmond]

Kinda glad we're not voting till tommorow, id like to see some more debate from these 2 sides and how others line up.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

I don't like jumping on an idea after it has been posted, but this was my exact thought as I was catching up.

If SnDvls is the duke then he will be cleared and then he can kill Alan or Desnudo. That way we make 2 players roles (simple or not) known which is only going to help us in the long run.

And if he is not, then he will die an other.

VOTE SNDVLS

any other reason other than following Blade and clearing me on your vote?

this will help in future analysis, thanks.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Desmond

Kinda glad we're not voting till tommorow, id like to see some more debate from these 2 sides and how others line up.

that's what I'm trying to get out of the voters now.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

I didn't answer you on purpose. Don't want too much info out there.

should add just like you didn't give out your full role. you scare me with this question. As a survivor you know not to ask this question with such an important role that I have.

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

any other reason other than following Blade and clearing me on your vote?

this will help in future analysis, thanks.

No I'm not following Blade as I rarely do in these games.

Like I posted earlier, as I was catching up I had the same feeling that Blade did. If I was on earlier (I was at work) I would have posted this thought and then everyone would be following me not Blade.

And are you going to ask everyone the same question that votes for you today? Just curious.

[Celeval]

Vote SnDvls

I think you're bluffing.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

And are you going to ask everyone the same question that votes for you today? Just curious.

actually I'm asking everyone the same question as I want it know why as I'll be around after the lynch so we know where people stand and why to help us catch the others.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Celeval

Vote SnDvls

I think you're bluffing.

thanks for the reason. I'll expect an "I'm sorry" when I'm proven right.

[Celeval]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

thanks for the reason. I'll expect an "I'm sorry" when I'm proven right.

Fair enough. If you Duke it over to Alan, you'll get both apologies and trust.

[saldana]

there are two possiblities as i see it at this point

1. sndvls is the duke, and he is going to whack alan or desnudo if the vote falls on him.

2. sndvls is the brutal other, assuming there is one, and when we vote for him, he is going to whack whichever one of us he and his pack think is the most valuable to the rest of us survivors. i am kind of surprised that no one else even thought of this, and everyone is just accepting his Sawyer/Duke reveal without question (where were you on that one blade ). From all accounts, Sawyer is a con-man, so i am a little bit baffled that no one is doubting his reveal.

with that in mind, i am not ready to vote yet, as i need some time to reread everything that has come out since i left for work today. i will be back in a bit.

[saldana]

dola, the only real way to disprove SnDvls story is for someone else to step up and say that they are the duke, which i dont want, because they then become that target for Sun that i was refering to.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by saldana

2. sndvls is the brutal other, assuming there is one, and when we vote for him, he is going to whack whichever one of us he and his pack think is the most valuable to the rest of us survivors. i am kind of surprised that no one else even thought of this, and everyone is just accepting his Sawyer/Duke reveal without question (where were you on that one blade ). From all accounts, Sawyer is a con-man, so i am a little bit baffled that no one is doubting his reveal.

I don't think an other would put himself out there like this. A 2-1 trade just isn't a good option for them this early, in my opinion.

You throwing the idea out there, on the other hand, is interesting.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I don't think an other would put himself out there like this. A 2-1 trade just isn't a good option for them this early, in my opinion.

You throwing the idea out there, on the other hand, is interesting.

lets take for one moment the entire story that blade has been spinning to be true...that he cant be lynched at night without taking someone with him. combine that with his normally highly insightful play, and can you think of a better reason why the brutal would try to draw votes to himself? cant kill him at night, cant get him lynched because too many people believe him, and he is one of the best players in the game....sounds like a real good exchange to me. problem is, to believe this, we have to believe sndvls is a bad guy, but we dont want to vote for him, because then we lose another survivor. its the perfect play for the others right now.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by saldana

lets take for one moment the entire story that blade has been spinning to be true...that he cant be lynched at night without taking someone with him. combine that with his normally highly insightful play, and can you think of a better reason why the brutal would try to draw votes to himself? cant kill him at night, cant get him lynched because too many people believe him, and he is one of the best players in the game....sounds like a real good exchange to me. problem is, to believe this, we have to believe sndvls is a bad guy, but we dont want to vote for him, because then we lose another survivor. its the perfect play for the others right now.

To be honest, Blade has been so chaotic, that I am not even listening to him at this point. That is his style and he is entitled to it, but to me, he is just throwing a bunch of stuff out there to see how it plays. He has probably been right on some of it and he is/will be wrong on, probably, more of it.

If Sndvls is not in danger of being of being killed at night because he is an other, he knows who the rest of the others are, so there is really no reason for him to flex his muscles and use his powers this early. Again, a 2-1 is a much more powerful swing later on in the game, when the numbers are fewer.

[Celeval]

What's the brutal wolf role? </n00b>

Edited to fix the < and >

[saldana]

if blade is the assassin that he says he is, all of us are in danger of being killed at night by him, including SnDvls, who would then not be able to brutalize anyone. hence, it is still a good move

[Swaggs]

The brutal role means you take someone else out with you if you die.

It is a 2 for 1 because, while it kills a bad guy, the bad guys also get to immediately kill a good guy and then take out another good guy during the next night turn.

[spleen1015]

Anyone keeping track of the current votes?

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

The brutal role means you take someone else out with you if you die.

It is a 2 for 1 because, while it kills a bad guy, the bad guys also get to immediately kill a good guy and then take out another good guy during the next night turn.

just a small correction to this...the brutal role gete to take someone out with him if he gets LYNCHED. if he were to get hit by an assassin at night, he doesnt get to use his abilities....hence, why i think sun's play might be a perfect ploy for the brutal wolf.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

Got caught up. Bad, bad, thing that hoops got taken out. I changed my mind, I'm not going to the bunker.

I think spleen might be good after all. hoops vouched for him, so that's good enough for me.

I just want to put out there that it should also clear me, as hoops and spleen have both vouched for me. A bunch of people are clearing spleen but leaving me out of it - why is that?

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by pennywisesb

I think we are ALL being played by Blade in some way. I just haven't pinpointed it yet.

Same here. He has tried way too hard to get us to vote Alan T. No one should push that hard to get someone voted out without some real hard evidence. So far, he hasn't shown any - in fact, he's now backtracking. I don't like it.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by saldana

just a small correction to this...the brutal role gete to take someone out with him if he gets LYNCHED. if he were to get hit by an assassin at night, he doesnt get to use his abilities....hence, why i think sun's play might be a perfect ploy for the brutal wolf.

I think that is speculative. It depends on AE's rules. I have seen that played both ways.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by KWhit

I just want to put out there that it should also clear me, as hoops and spleen have both vouched for me. A bunch of people are clearing spleen but leaving me out of it - why is that?

Based on hoops fate, do you really want to be in that group right now? You should keep it on the down low.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Based on hoops fate, do you really want to be in that group right now? You should keep it on the down low.

Doh!

Good point.

*Whistles as he slowly backs out of thread*

[Blade6119]

UNVOTE ALANT
VOTE SNDVLS

If you are who you say you are then i hope you make a good decision...dont immediately pick alan, consider desnudo too.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by saldana

if blade is the assassin that he says he is, all of us are in danger of being killed at night by him, including SnDvls, who would then not be able to brutalize anyone. hence, it is still a good move

Your not in danger of dying by my hand right now saldana...very few are...im at a shortlist of about 4-5 people right now, that will mostly be decided by the lynch.

Anyone else feel like we might have a cunning wolf in alan?

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

thanks for the reason. I'll expect an "I'm sorry" when I'm proven right.

I am now sure...kill ALANT today sndvls...i will take out desnudo tonight. This will end up a huge day for the villagers.

Was waiting to see how something played out, and am beyond happy at the results

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

I am now sure...kill ALANT today sndvls...i will take out desnudo tonight. This will end up a huge day for the villagers.

Was waiting to see how something played out, and am beyond happy at the results

Do you care to share any of this?

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Do you care to share any of this?

Not especially...and since all it takes is sndvls and i to do this i dont think i need to share with you.

[Alan T]

Just got home, and checking in real quick before bed.

Originally Posted by Blade6119

UNVOTE ALANT
VOTE SNDVLS

If you are who you say you are then i hope you make a good decision...dont immediately pick alan, consider desnudo too.

I still don't think I fully buy Sndvls here. I really had someone else pegged as the Duke, and I don't know if he is trying to bluff me out here.

I really think he should still pick me here if he is not bluffing. There are too many people here that mistrust me at this point that doing otherwise leaves too many loose ends. I cant really do much else for our side at this point than i already have, so in my death some people hopefully would believe what i had to say about a few people. Anyhows, if I ended up misjudging this badly on him, I probably deserve to die anyways.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Not especially...and since all it takes is sndvls and i to do this i dont think i need to share with you.

That's helpful. Thanks.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Just got home, and checking in real quick before bed.



I still don't think I fully buy Sndvls here. I really had someone else pegged as the Duke, and I don't know if he is trying to bluff me out here.

I really think he should still pick me here if he is not bluffing. There are too many people here that mistrust me at this point that doing otherwise leaves too many loose ends. I cant really do much else for our side at this point than i already have, so in my death some people hopefully would believe what i had to say about a few people. Anyhows, if I ended up misjudging this badly on him, I probably deserve to die anyways.

I too had someone else pegged. So vote to lynch sun...either he will duke it to you, or he will die an other death

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Your not in danger of dying by my hand right now saldana...very few are...im at a shortlist of about 4-5 people right now, that will mostly be decided by the lynch.

Anyone else feel like we might have a cunning wolf in alan?

Im not sure exactly what I would gain by this "Strategy" if I was a cunning wolf. In most games I believe the cunning wolf gets revealed as a wolf when dying, just when viewed by a seer they show up as a normal player.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

I too had someone else pegged. So vote to lynch sun...either he will duke it to you, or he will die an other death

Yeah, thats what I have been trying to say to folks. At this point it seems I pretty much have -no one- on my side, an it would be pretty tough to form any trust other than proving my innocence through my death, or you and penny showing up to be good. The easiest way to clear all three of us right now is my death, and in the process catch either an other in Sndvls, or clearing him as well. Thats 4 cleared villagers for the price of 1.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Im not sure exactly what I would gain by this "Strategy" if I was a cunning wolf. In most games I believe the cunning wolf gets revealed as a wolf when dying, just when viewed by a seer they show up as a normal player.

Wrong, most games the cunning wolf comes up a wolf during lynch but a villager to the seer

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Yeah, thats what I have been trying to say to folks. At this point it seems I pretty much have -no one- on my side, an it would be pretty tough to form any trust other than proving my innocence through my death, or you and penny showing up to be good. The easiest way to clear all three of us right now is my death, and in the process catch either an other in Sndvls, or clearing him as well. Thats 4 cleared villagers for the price of 1.

Might i ask how you say you know penny and i are clear?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Wrong, most games the cunning wolf comes up a wolf during lynch but a villager to the seer

Isnt that what I just said?

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Isnt that what I just said?

Well maybe ...sorry, i read it wrong.

But if true, you would gain a lot. Have your wolves defend you, then you die a villager and they look clean. People then come after me and sun instead

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Might i ask how you say you know penny and i are clear?

I'll tell my secret possibly tommorrow. Waiting to see what one person does first.