2015-2016 Republican Primary Season - Trump Courts the Conservatives

[JPhillips]

Saw today that the last four polls have Carson down from five to eleven points over previous polling by the same organizations. I think his fifteen minutes are just about up.

[flere-imsaho]

I'd expect we're not going to see a lot of change, or much significant, until after New Years, at this point.

[flere-imsaho]

So, I think my memory's failing as I get older: Palestinians Dancing in the Street : snopes.com

[molson]

I'd be surprised if there weren't a handful of people really excited about 9/11 in a metro area of 24 million people and with a significant Muslim population of varying ideologies that some of the hijackers lived among for a while. But I don't see what the relevance of that is. A population of 24 million also has a handful of people that cook dead bodies and eat them, so what? The vast majority of people don't eat dead bodies or celebrate tragedies.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

So, I think my memory's failing as I get older: Palestinians Dancing in the Street : snopes.com

Yeah, the Palestine thing did happened. Still remember Arafat (immediately after that footage was out) giving blood in a photo-shoot and looking all humble, basically begging America not to bomb them.

[lighthousekeeper]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

If the GOP isn't going to moderate in respect to minorities, they have to significantly increase the percentage of white voters that vote GOP. If turnout is 70% white, they need to increase the GOP share from the 60% of the past three elections to closer to 64%. It's tough, but they might pull it off.

If whites stay at 60% they'll need 40% of more of Latino voters to win, and that seems very unlikely.

This is a fun vote calculator that lets you adjust demo percentages.

http://www.latinodecisions.com/2016-calculator/

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...-the-election/

here's a similar calculator (Swing O Matic) that alleges that if whites have a 100% turnout rate this election, but still retain their slight GOP preference, the election will still go to DEMs. in fact, you'd have to have 100% white turnout and a 33% reduction in black turnout to swing the election to GOP.

[revrew]

Originally Posted by lighthousekeeper

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...-the-election/

here's a similar calculator (Swing O Matic) that alleges that if whites have a 100% turnout rate this election, but still retain their slight GOP preference, the election will still go to DEMs. in fact, you'd have to have 100% white turnout and a 33% reduction in black turnout to swing the election to GOP.

That's an awesome calculator! Lots of fun to experiment with.

But actually, all you have to do is swing college-educated whites from 56% GOP to 62% GOP, and it swings the election, with no change in turnout whatsoever. So there are ways simpler than what you propose ...

For example, without Obama running again, I would expect black voter turnout to drop. And then if you ... (off to play with the sliders again) ...

[revrew]

In fact, by calculating a very reasonable drop in the black vote and sliding the white vote - college and non - ever so slightly to the GOP, it's pretty easy to swing Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia to the GOP. Bam, that's the election.

Now if Trump wins the nomination, expect the Latino vote to swing away ... (back to the calculator) ...

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by revrew

Now if Trump wins the nomination...

Speaking of that...

http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/04/politi...nal/index.html

Donald Trump is once again alone at the top of the Republican field, according to the latest CNN/ORC Poll, with 36% of registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents behind him, while his nearest competitor trails by 20 points.


Three candidates cluster behind Trump in the mid-teens, including Texas Sen. Ted Cruz at 16%, former neurosurgeon Ben Carson at 14% and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio at 12%. All other candidates have the support of less than 5% of GOP voters in the race for the Republican Party's nomination for president.

[molson]

Geez, the latest CNN poll has Trump with his biggest lead yet, +20.

Edit: Beat by a second.

[ISiddiqui]

Thing is, I don't see college educated whites going MORE GOP with this cast of candidates. The write up underneath even indicates that college educated whites have been drifting Democrat.

The interesting thing is this is just racial. I can see a drop in black voter turnout, yes. But I can also see Hillary Clinton taking a slightly higher share of the female vote and perhaps a slightly higher female turnout as well.

[albionmoonlight]

Trump (who I still think is very unlikely) would really widen the gap between college educated and non-college educated whites.

[revrew]

Originally Posted by molson

Geez, the latest CNN poll has Trump with his biggest lead yet, +20.

Edit: Beat by a second.

A poll of 445 Republicans and leaners? 160+ of whom are independents? Even CNN has to know that's an insufficient polling sample to be predictable.

The key to not being shocked in the Iowa caucus, for example, is to realize there's a HUGE difference between polling Republicans in general and polling likely caucus goers. Big-media candidates (like Romney, Trump, Hillary in 2008) always underperform at the caucuses, while organized candidates (Cruz, Obama) always exceed expectations. Take any Iowa poll right now, shave 4-8 points off Trump and add 2-4 points to Cruz and you have a better prediction (I only point out Cruz because he has the best organization in Iowa right now, though Huckabee and Rubio are trying furiously to catch up).

And yes, I know that in the latest Iowa poll that would make Cruz the winner. Frankly, I expect the race to be between Cruz and Rubio in Iowa, as they fight over the dying shreds of Carson's flameout. I don't see Trump gaining much more than 20%, so the race is on to see whether Rubio or Cruz can get to 21.

[Solecismic]

The caucus approach is so radically different from the primary approach. I don't think people realize how Iowa works. I wonder if Trump himself even understands - and whether it will deal his candidacy a huge blow when people are surprised when he doesn't win there.

The media seems to want Christie now. But Christie will barely register in Iowa, and New Hampshire can turn on a dime. My gut says this is shaping up, more and more, as a Cruz/Rubio fight down the line.

My gut is almost always wrong, however. That's why I haven't indulged it with Brown Sugar Cinnamon Pop Tarts in ages.

Iowa is about organization and New Hampshire is about perceived electability. Neither is a perfect measure, but these states both have an influence.

[lighthousekeeper]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Trump (who I still think is very unlikely) would really widen the gap between college educated and non-college educated whites.

As would Cruz.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

My gut is almost always wrong, however. That's why I haven't indulged it with Brown Sugar Cinnamon Pop Tarts in ages.

Nothing to add, but that did made me laugh.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

My gut says this is shaping up, more and more, as a Cruz/Rubio fight down the line.

This is where I am too.

My gut is almost always wrong, however. That's why I haven't indulged it with Brown Sugar Cinnamon Pop Tarts in ages.

[Thomkal]

Cruz seems like he would to be totally unvoteable against Hillary-I don't get the recent rise in popularity.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

.

My gut is almost always wrong, however. That's why I haven't indulged it with Brown Sugar Cinnamon Pop Tarts in ages.

I had Pumpkin Spice Pop Tarts for breakfast this morning. Good eatin'

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

The caucus approach is so radically different from the primary approach. I don't think people realize how Iowa works. I wonder if Trump himself even understands - and whether it will deal his candidacy a huge blow when people are surprised when he doesn't win there.

If I recall correctly, Hillary's campaign in 2008 completely whiffed on how caucuses work. Why would Trump be any more likely to be on the ball with that?

That said, even if his campaign DOES understand caucuses and isn't simply setting up for an independent run later that doesn't have to deal with a primary fight, he's not remotely evangelical enough to carry Iowa, I don't think.

My gut is almost always wrong, however. That's why I haven't indulged it with Brown Sugar Cinnamon Pop Tarts in ages.

Gold.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

The media seems to want Christie now. But Christie will barely register in Iowa, and New Hampshire can turn on a dime. My gut says this is shaping up, more and more, as a Cruz/Rubio fight down the line.

I think its because there is a decent chance that Christie can take New Hampshire, as his numbers have been rising there. And the media would love an interview stage of Trump, Carson, Cruz, Rubio, and Christie after the first two primaries. Christie and Trump on the same stage makes for more interesting viewing.

[QuikSand]

Poll: Cruz surges ahead of Trump and Carson in Iowa | TheHill

[Coffee Warlord]

Jesus. If there was one GOP candidate I despised even MORE than Carson and Trump, it'd be Cruz. HOW ARE THESE PEOPLE HERE.

[miami_fan]

Jeb Bush domain name redirects to Trump site | TheHill

Oh Jeb.

[Solecismic]

What we've seen in Iowa is the recent deflation of Carson, seemingly from self-inflicted wounds.

I've never seen someone campaign on the "look at me, I used to be out of control and violent" platform. I guess it didn't resonate with the conservative base he had amassed.

Some of Carson's supporters returned to Trump, but most of the switch was from Carson to Cruz.

That makes sense. Cruz is campaigning for the right wing of the party and a high-percentage of Iowa caucus-goers vote that side.

I keep saying this, but we're still a long way out by Iowa caucus standards. At this time four years ago, Santorum, the Iowa winner, was polling at 4% and the leader was Herman Cain.

The only thing less relevant to the 2016 election than Iowa polls right now (though I do think Cruz will win easily in Iowa) is this:

The 27 Best Pop-Tart Flavors - Rankings & Reviews

His hatred of the BSC is completely unwarranted.

[stevew]

I keep trying to figure out how the Iowa caucuses even work but it's confusing to read about. I gather that the candidate with the loudest backers can bully the room? In which case, you can't rule out the Trump crazies no matter what the polls say.

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Jesus. If there was one GOP candidate I despised even MORE than Carson and Trump, it'd be Cruz. HOW ARE THESE PEOPLE HERE.

This.

I'd rather vote for Fiorina.

[GrantDawg]

Ok, so Trump wants all Muslims banned from entering the country. No matter where they are from, or what reason (immigration, tourism, education, etc.). Is this it? Is he trying to divide himself far enough from the GOP to run as an independent (some kind of new Dixiecrat type racist party perhaps)?

[ISiddiqui]

Now all the other GOP hopefuls have to distance themselves from that statement so that Muslims don't en masse vote Democrat (they already do in a decent number, IIRC... but it isn't like 90%)

[albionmoonlight]

I hope that the media takes this opportunity to pin the other candidates down on whether they believe that all Muslims should be banned from entering the country.

Several of my liberal friends have been delighting on facebook taking Trumps most reprehensible shit and stating/implying that "this is what Republicans think" And I don' t think that's fair.

This is an opportunity for the other candidates (and the GOP writ large) to make a stand and start to take the public perception of the party back from Trump. And to show that they are not afraid to do it.

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I hope that the media takes this opportunity to pin the other candidates down on whether they believe that all Muslims should be banned from entering the country.

Several of my liberal friends have been delighting on facebook taking Trumps most reprehensible shit and stating/implying that "this is what Republicans think" And I don' t think that's fair.

This is an opportunity for the other candidates (and the GOP writ large) to make a stand and start to take the public perception of the party back from Trump. And to show that they are not afraid to do it.

I think this is one of the biggest things about the Republican party that has disappointed me: no one has the courage to rein in the wingnuts.

[stevew]

Trump's campaign is truly a yahoo comments section acted out

[Thomkal]

I'm not leaning to heavily on the Iowa results. Michele Bachmann won here and Cruz would appeal to those same voters I guess.

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

I'm not leaning to heavily on the Iowa results. Michele Bachmann won here and Cruz would appeal to those same voters I guess.

You wonder what they're afraid of? I doubt ISIS wants to bomb some corn fields.

[ISiddiqui]

At the very least, Iowa may clear out some of the field. At least after NH, I think you should have debates with 6 at max.

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

At the very least, Iowa may clear out some of the field. At least after NH, I think you should have debates with 6 at max.

I think they should let more in! Push the crazy to the max!

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Now all the other GOP hopefuls have to distance themselves from that statement so that Muslims don't en masse vote Democrat (they already do in a decent number, IIRC... but it isn't like 90%)

Seems questionable whether it would have any impact on an election at all.

Consider these numbers from Pew Research after 2012.

Jews accounted for 2% of the 2012 electorate, and Muslims and members of other non-Christian faiths together accounted for 7% of the electorate. The religiously unaffiliated made up 12% of 2012 voters; the religiously unaffiliated share of the electorate is unchanged from 2008, even though the religiously unaffiliated share of the adult population has grown significantly over this period.

Not I'm sure how many other "non-Christian faiths" one could tally up but let's go nuts and assign all 7% to being Muslims.

"Other faiths" went 74-23 Obama in 2012.

So a leap to 90% would only be around a 1% change in the total ... and that's if we assigned every single non-Christian voter to being Muslim. The likely figure is closer to half that.

In 2010 researchers found Illinois to be the most Muslim populated state, at just under 3%. And that's not exactly a swing state.

The math suggests that Trump is likely to energize & regain more voters with the position that he'll lose because of any sort of Islamic voter backlash.

[bhlloy]

Trump has to be a Democrat plant. In the last week he's advocated trashing the Geneva convention and killing terrorists extended families and now he's in favor of blocking people entering the country (including US citizens) based on their religion. I don't want to get all Godwin's law up in here, but he's at least wandering into the neighborhood right now. I figure the only way he hasn't brought up detention camps is because he's got a team full of handlers begging him not to every waking minute.

I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop and for people to go "maybe this guy isn't for real" but it isn't happening. I don't know if it's tragic or hilarious.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by BillJasper

You wonder what they're afraid of? I doubt ISIS wants to bomb some corn fields.

[JPhillips]

At least a third of the GOP is ready to be a white nationalist party. That is absolutely tragic.

[Solecismic]

More that he's sucking the air out of the room because the media loves him. Every time he tweets, CNN stops their programming for a "breaking news..." He's right that they should put him on the payroll.

I remind myself at least twice a day that he can't win. It's too bad so many are still involved. When the field gets smaller, his lack of details will really hurt him in debates. He doesn't want shorter debates because he's old and tired. He wants shorter debates so he doesn't have to answer detailed follow-up questions.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

More that he's sucking the air out of the room because the media loves him. Every time he tweets, CNN stops their programming for a "breaking news..." He's right that they should put him on the payroll.

I remind myself at least twice a day that he can't win. It's too bad so many are still involved. When the field gets smaller, his lack of details will really hurt him in debates. He doesn't want shorter debates because he's old and tired. He wants shorter debates so he doesn't have to answer detailed follow-up questions.

Can't he win? What can he say at this point that will lose support? What gaffe can he make that is traditionally worse than "kill muslim non-combatants and deny them all entry to the US?"

[Dutch]

He must know by now that his only play is to keep being controversial. He is mastering the art of stealing air-time from his opponents. He definitely knows how to get the media's attention. If he doesn't fade away, he'll win simply because we won't know who else to vote for.

I will stand by my prediction of Hillary vs Rubio...but honestly, I haven't heard from Rubio in weeks (or anybody else for that matter sans Hillary)...that's not a good sign. I just have to keep telling myself that it's still early.

FWIW: The Republicans are pretty much against Trump's "no Muslims until we figure this thing out" line...even Dick Cheney condemned it.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Dutch

FWIW: The Republicans are pretty much against Trump's "no Muslims until we figure this thing out" line...even Dick Cheney condemned it.

I haven't bothered to follow the reaction (hell, I only knew the comment existed 'cause of FB shares) but if that's the case then it's probably time for the GOP establishment to go away.

Virtually every time Trump says something he just moves himself closer to the nomination. This pretty much wins with 90% of the (R) voters I know personally. And the other 10% I don't really believe are particularly conservative anyway.

He's shown an incredible knack for saying exactly the right thing over & over ... which is why I expect him to suddenly step on a third rail any second now.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

The 27 Best Pop-Tart Flavors - Rankings & Reviews

Can't take any ranking seriously that puts Frosted Brown Sugar Cinnamon so low-my blood tests probably come back as cinnamon I've eaten so many over the years. Did you see they are coming out with a bunch of new flavors starting this month? I may have posted something here, not sure. Looking forward to Bacon Maple the most.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Can't he win? What can he say at this point that will lose support? What gaffe can he make that is traditionally worse than "kill muslim non-combatants and deny them all entry to the US?"

I don't think elections are necessarily about measuring gaffes.

If you want a relatively gaffe-free, intelligent, competent, experienced candidate who seems to take measured, nuanced positions every time... Kasich really stands out.

But he simply doesn't look or sound like a president. He's kind of nerdy and anxious and probably was friends with Michael J. Fox growing up near Columbus, Ohio. So he remains at the bottom of the polls, except in New Hampshire where there's a fondness for wonks - not that he'll win there.

Now we know that 25-30% of likely Republican voters don't mind hearing vaguely racist comments about Islamic people and immigrants. I agree this does damage to the Republican brand, but I maintain that Trump has a lower ceiling than the other candidates and once the crowd thins, support will coalesce around a more establishment candidate.

It's a long race, and we're still almost two months from the beginning. Cruz will probably take Iowa and New Hampshire will change very quickly in response, as it always does. From there, momentum, money and organization matters - and Trump will only have one of the three.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Can't take any ranking seriously that puts Frosted Brown Sugar Cinnamon so low-my blood tests probably come back as cinnamon I've eaten so many over the years. Did you see they are coming out with a bunch of new flavors starting this month? I may have posted something here, not sure. Looking forward to Bacon Maple the most.

Blueberry is obviously the best flavor and anyone who thinks otherwise is an idiot.

[Dutch]

Chocolate Fudge, that's non-negotiable.

[Solecismic]

I can't believe I'm reading this. I considered strawberry and cherry for a long time. I even had a youthful love of blueberry, though it hasn't changed with the times. I just don't see how someone can vote for anything but brown sugar cinnamon. It's the only flavor that addresses the current Hostess crisis.

Some of you heathens probably even toast them...

[Dutch]

I only toast them when I am also patient enough to put them on a plate.