03-03-2011, 03:21 PM | #1551 |
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I am seriously having a surreal moment here. The person I thought was second most deserving of trust has a vote by the person I thought was third most deserving and suspicion from the only scanned villager left, the person I trusted third least to start the day has a vote on who I was leaning towards voting, meanwhile the person I trusted most thinks the person I want to vote is an obvious villager.
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03-03-2011, 03:21 PM | #1552 |
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At least I've got this thread to read at work bored outta my mind.
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03-03-2011, 03:23 PM | #1553 |
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I don't want to keep rehashing this, Chief, as I have nothing new to say. But let me just say I don't agree with a couple of your assumptions there. He may very well have made the scan decision himself, maybe the other wolves weren't around, or he didn't listen to them, whatever.
The whole theory breaks down, however, if we don't put scrutiny on the person "scanned." So ironically by giving you a hard time about this I'm onlyi supporting your theory that a veteran wolf shouldn't make that play. If i don't give you a hard time about this, then it was a perfect move for a wolf to make. I also wonder if Mau's second reveal was planned, and if so whether McKerney's vote, or any other early votes on Mauboy might have been in anticipation of that. |
03-03-2011, 03:23 PM | #1554 | |
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Quote:
I just got a headache trying to parse this. |
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03-03-2011, 03:24 PM | #1555 |
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03-03-2011, 03:27 PM | #1556 | |
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Quote:
It will be interesting at the end of the game to see which of our theories is the more correct. This last thought here is also one that has occurred to me. I was actually accused of it by Pass for mau's first reveal, but I think we both agree that first move was likely to be a desperation move by mau in the face of being lynched. Such a move is much more likely for the second "reveal", especially if the wolves came to the logical assumption that it was only a matter of time before mau was outted.
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. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
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03-03-2011, 03:28 PM | #1557 |
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Well, escept I know your theory about me being a wolf is incorrect.
I mean, more about the general thinking of the wolves in and around mau's reveal.
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. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
03-03-2011, 03:29 PM | #1558 |
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I think I have the last part worked out. I think JAG has me as his most trusted, and Pass as least trusted, but I am calling Pass an "obvious villager". I think I even used that term. Or it could be ntn. But I don't think so.
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. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
03-03-2011, 03:29 PM | #1559 |
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Chief, you are doing a lot of assuming, which then feedsd the rest of your argument. You are assuming that all the wolves are telling mau what to do AND you're assuming he will listen to them. I do see what you're saying though. But I'm not convinced mau wouldn't do that, either because he thought people would buy it or thought it was funny or something or maybe because you as a wolf were yelling at him for his fake seer reveal). Not saying it's a brilliant move, just that some people do things for weird or emotional reasons. You may be right of course that maybe mau said you as a villager knowing you were a villager to gain some trust. But that's all several moves ahead type of stuff. I think everything those first two days was a series of panic moves. I also see the wolves just saying "Sheesh, you're on your own", especially after the martin debacle.
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03-03-2011, 03:29 PM | #1560 |
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Danny, do you want to walk me through why you think Pass is a poor vote today? Because I'm with Autumn and Crimson on their "nope" to the logic that Chief outlined for Pass = villager.
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03-03-2011, 03:30 PM | #1561 |
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Danny, if you're still reading, what's your take on Pass?
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03-03-2011, 03:31 PM | #1562 |
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03-03-2011, 03:32 PM | #1563 |
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Yes, another angle to take would be to look at those who were openly skeptical of Mau's reveal, yet didn't get immediately night killed as CF and DV did.
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03-03-2011, 03:32 PM | #1564 |
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03-03-2011, 03:32 PM | #1565 |
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Danny's so popular all of a sudden!
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03-03-2011, 03:33 PM | #1566 |
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Ya know I wonder if Chief is playing the EXTREME logic game as a wolf, that is to take a simple accusatory statement and write such a novel about each and every piece of it that it infuriates the person accusing and they blow up making them look wolfish. And in the end everyone forgets what the actual question was.
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03-03-2011, 03:37 PM | #1567 |
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03-03-2011, 03:40 PM | #1568 |
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I think JAG and hoops called each other to make that post together. They are BFFs
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03-03-2011, 03:48 PM | #1569 |
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Crimson, I just realized that you are in the same "trusted dead guy" state as Danny. I haven't been doing as good a job of tracking this stuff over the last day or two. Anyway, glad that you are being vocal today, even if some of the comments seem more aimed for laughs than pure analysis.
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03-03-2011, 03:50 PM | #1570 |
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I'm going to go ahead and vote JAG. I've already gone over any reasoning for the vote. Nothing really particular on him, I just think we should have another candidate besides Pass and I'm not sure NTN is the smartest one.
VOTE JAG |
03-03-2011, 03:50 PM | #1571 |
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How could you not know I was dead? One of the big twists in this game was that I was killed instead of Lathum the BG.
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03-03-2011, 03:52 PM | #1572 |
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And yeah, sorry if I'm not much help today analyzingwise. At this point I literally don't know. I've gotten "vibes" from people but I think we're really dealing with really skilled players and I also think the village has done a lot of work for the wolves. I like Pass and Jag votes. But I"d also like Autmn/CR/Hoops votes just because I think one of you three is also a wolf.
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03-03-2011, 03:53 PM | #1573 |
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I'm in high demand! Let me start by saying I'm not as against voting pass as much as chief isn though I would be unlikely to vote him if I had one.
I think his spout with chief in addition to him being willing to work with me on a potential 3rd candidate is my reasoning. I lean strongly toward ntn being a villager which means we likely had two of three vote getters as villagers (along with pass himself). If he's a wolf, why would he not just vote one of us? Especially me, knowing he had a great excuse for the vote as self defense. My only gut concern about him is after I commented about his reserved play he really starting going a bit over the top. |
03-03-2011, 03:54 PM | #1574 |
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Autumn, the D1 reveal by mauboy seemed really odd to me. I read it shortly after it happened and kept waiting for someone to react to it in some manner. I think if you re-read my post on it, 30 minutes after the fact, you'll see that I'm not really decided on whether I believe it but astonished that pre-deadline business seemed to be carrying on as if that post wasn't there.
I think a wolf looking to flip their vote would have been more likely to try and call it out before I did ... they certainly had time to do so. That makes me discount, to some extent, the "pre-determined votes with intent to remove post-fake-reveal" idea that you've suggested. |
03-03-2011, 03:56 PM | #1575 | |
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Ha! Ask around about my rep, both with respect to logic and to long posts. Allegiance ain't got nuttin' to widit.
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03-03-2011, 03:58 PM | #1576 |
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That's a good point, Hoops. I know I had missed his little "seer" bit entirely, and I'm not sure how common that is. Unfortunately that paints you worse, because as I was reading that earlier today I was thinking "Maybe the wolves realized no one was noticing his hint and Hoops was pointing it out for them." But you're right, there were not immediate vote changes. Maybe he took them by surprise. We know Martin wasn't around ;-)
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03-03-2011, 03:58 PM | #1577 | |
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Quote:
It was just one of those things where I wasn't 100% factoring in the "cleared guy posting in thread!" stuff early on, when we had a more crowded room. Then I was on the block yesterday and spent some time seriously contemplating what the game would be like for me if I was lynched. So I more or less locked in on Danny (yesterday's lynch) without really carefully accounting for the other players who were already in the same position and who should be strong voices the rest of the way even if they can't cast votes. |
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03-03-2011, 04:00 PM | #1578 |
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These are very difficult votes due to our wolf lynched being runaway meaningless votes. Normally two wolf lynches would give you tons of valuable info.
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03-03-2011, 04:01 PM | #1579 | |
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Quote:
I'm not in position to tell anyone how to interpret my actions. I'm just reacting to something I saw in the thread and trying to give context to the reaction. FWIW, I think that I would have moved my vote at that time if I wasn't already on NTN. It just wasn't worth potentially burning the seer on Day 1. |
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03-03-2011, 04:01 PM | #1580 | |
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Actually, that was more Pass suggesting that yesterday when he was trying to explain away my second and longer vote stay on mau. Autumn was talking about the second reveal a couple days later, and I tend to agree with his thinking on that one being a distinct possibility. I think good votes on Day 1 mean a lot more than good votes on Day 3, for this game at least.
__________________
. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
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03-03-2011, 04:15 PM | #1581 |
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I just read many pages of this thread to try to get something to hang my hat on. All I came away with is I don't know why it wasn't obvious to us at the time that Mauboy was faking it. He posted after the night deadline, said nothing about his scan and went to bed. lol oh man.
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03-03-2011, 04:16 PM | #1582 |
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Maybe not much help, but if I was ranking my vote preference today it might go like this
JAG Pass Hoops and Autumn Cougar Packer Mckerney CR NTN Maybe something like that, obviously I now take back what I said on pass as looking at him in regards to everyine else, he is a good candidte with jag I think. I would still 100 percent vote jag though |
03-03-2011, 04:27 PM | #1583 |
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Does someone have a vote count?
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03-03-2011, 04:29 PM | #1584 |
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Actually Danny I came to the same concusion. If I had a vote today, it would be Jag.
Mainly because I'm looking at people who are quiet until you tell them they are quiet, and then are very talkative. Pass would be my second choice for his intensity and insistence on doing a cunning hunt but that could just be zealoutness. |
03-03-2011, 04:58 PM | #1585 |
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I'll go along with the voice of our dead villager allies. I'll value that above what I think (by a fairly small margin) is the correct play today because I know - barring anything really silly that isn't spelled out in the rules - their opinions are offered without any motivation to steer us wrong.
UNVOTE PASS VOTE JAG |
03-03-2011, 05:48 PM | #1586 | |
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Quote:
I assume GE would be toward the bottom of this list too, Danny. I think it is getting close to time to start looking into those that there is limited opinion about... namely Packer, cougar, mckerney who have all joined me in the quieter approach to the game. |
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03-03-2011, 06:08 PM | #1587 |
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Well, there seems to be a whole lot of talking going on, but not much being said. I voted Pass yesterday, and am inclined to do so again today. Is there a vote count out there?
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03-03-2011, 06:24 PM | #1588 |
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As of post 1587:
JAG 2 - Autumn (1570), hoopsguy (1585) ntndeacon 1 - PackerFanatic (1508) |
03-03-2011, 06:27 PM | #1589 | |
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The thing is, both Packer and Mckerney have votes in their favor from day 1. Packer made the first vote on Mauboy (MartinD later would have been vote #2, I doubt the wolves would vote 1-2 for a fellow wolf. Mckerney also had a solid vote later in the day for Mauboy. |
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03-03-2011, 06:31 PM | #1590 |
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Well Iam fine for voting JAG, I just don't want it to be a runaway if we can get info from it.
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03-03-2011, 06:32 PM | #1591 |
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Vote JAG
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03-03-2011, 06:36 PM | #1592 |
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As of post 1591:
JAG 3 - Autumn (1570), hoopsguy (1585), ntndeacon (1591) ntndeacon 1 - PackerFanatic (1508) |
03-03-2011, 06:40 PM | #1593 |
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To answer a question about the race/game.
The werewolf portion will end when it plays itself to the end (one way or the other). The race will end on the final leg which will be after we get to the final three teams as it does on the show. Either may end first and the other will continue until it ends. |
03-03-2011, 06:42 PM | #1594 |
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I'm not in love with JAG as a candidate, but I have already spoken much about my thoughts on ntndeacon. I don'tt hink I can go there.
I'll go with a third canddiate, one brought up by Autumn earlier today. If anyone has been taking possible advantage of knowing mau was going to reveal, it would be mckerney with his early Day 3 vote on mau. Plus, as ntn has said, he has fallen back into being a little too quiet. VOTE MCKERNEY
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. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
03-03-2011, 07:03 PM | #1595 |
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As of post 1594:
JAG 3 - Autumn (1570), hoopsguy (1585), ntndeacon (1591) ntndeacon 1 - PackerFanatic (1508) mckerney 1 - Chief Rum (1594) |
03-03-2011, 07:08 PM | #1596 |
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Not much more I can think of to make the case for myself. I regret being so locked into Danny that I didn't sufficiently consider alternatives. I had the same thoughts about saldana last game and it paid off, but obviously not so this go around.
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03-03-2011, 07:17 PM | #1597 |
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This WW has been like a bad comedy novel so far. Silly twists (my reveals), long-winded stories (nearly everyone today) with no points. I'm reading a lot of this stuff and it's funny, from my perspective anyway.
Keep it going though, I need something to do during my work days |
03-03-2011, 07:37 PM | #1598 |
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Wow a lot of votes still missing. This seems to be a new trend, not voting until the last hour. Odd.
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03-03-2011, 07:41 PM | #1599 |
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I'm sticking to my guns from yesterday.........I still think I get a wolfy smell from Pass.
vote Pass
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03-03-2011, 07:43 PM | #1600 |
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As of post 1599:
JAG 3 - Autumn (1570), hoopsguy (1585), ntndeacon (1591) ntndeacon 1 - PackerFanatic (1508) mckerney 1 - Chief Rum (1594) Passacaglia 1 - cougarfreak (1599) |
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