Werewolf LXXII: Chess (Checkmate!)

[st.cronin]

gah

[The Jackal]

Vote RendeR

If the majority of the team wants to lynch olie and continue to follow cronin's plan, that's fine, but RendeR is a wolf. Up to you guys.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Heinz,

My presentation rubbed you the wrong way, for which I apologize. I am simply trying to win the game, and doing my best to mount a persuasive argument.

Oh no worries man, I probably over-worded my true feelings. I mean I wasn't like pissed about it or anything, I just like the lines of communication and open thought to stay...open.

No worries Cronin.

[jeheinz72]

Hrm, my first thought seeing the two of them vote each other so quick is...both wolves? Or am I just being dense here?

[mccollins]

I don't think oliegirl should be lynched (yet). She can be useful to the villagers if she chooses to use her bodyguarding ability.

I think it's safe to say one of RendeR/Jackal is a wolf. 23.5 hours to post dig and figure out which is the safer vote.

[RendeR]

I know everyone is going to pile on me today because of jackal's supposed scan.

I know he's lying, but I'm just a white bishop, I have nothing to back me up.

Unless another knight scanned me last night?? perhaps? Let us hope anyway.

Even so, I want to lynch jackal first. We lose nothing by testing his claim and we verify everything he's said in the process.

If I'm a wolf and he's right, I die tomorrow either way, BUT if *I* am right, and I am. We kill a wolf tonight we kill another black player tomorrow and the game is all but locked up.

Killing me first leads to the same loop, but wastes a VILLAGER white player
Where lynching JACKAL first gives us a wolf. Either way we're at a good place tomorrow.

Go my way and we're ahead of the game, go his way, it slows us down a day and wastes a white player.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by RendeR

I know everyone is going to pile on me today because of jackal's supposed scan.

I know he's lying, but I'm just a white bishop, I have nothing to back me up.

Unless another knight scanned me last night?? perhaps? Let us hope anyway.

Even so, I want to lynch jackal first. We lose nothing by testing his claim and we verify everything he's said in the process.

If I'm a wolf and he's right, I die tomorrow either way, BUT if *I* am right, and I am. We kill a wolf tonight we kill another black player tomorrow and the game is all but locked up.

Killing me first leads to the same loop, but wastes a VILLAGER white player
Where lynching JACKAL first gives us a wolf. Either way we're at a good place tomorrow.

Go my way and we're ahead of the game, go his way, it slows us down a day and wastes a white player.

But isn't Jackal going to make the same defense? I mean it's basically a his word vs yours thing.

I don't even know if it's worth going down that avenue yet or not.

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Unless another knight scanned me last night?? perhaps? Let us hope anyway.

There are no other Knights left in the game besides Jackal.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Is that really the most important issue at hand?

I'm not sure I get your meaning?

At this stage with only 2 black pieces left and 2 wolves left we're in no danger of losing control of things.

I think we should eliminate the wolf and move on with mating black. With only 1 w2olf floating around they become pretty much neutered as to affecting the outcome of the game.

The danger I see is if the wolves night kill the white pawns. I would have thought that would be their first move when black went down so fast.

Leads me to believe one of the pawns is the last wolf.

but I digress.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

But isn't Jackal going to make the same defense? I mean it's basically a his word vs yours thing.

I don't even know if it's worth going down that avenue yet or not.

thats exactly what it is really. If we'd rather just vote off the last black piecesand move in for the kill on the king I'm all for that too, but if people start buying into jackals lies and vote for me I'm not going to sit here and ignore it either.

I know how the mob rule works around here =)

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by mccollins

There are no other Knights left in the game besides Jackal.

Great. no way to find the last wolf after jackal them. GREAT....felgercarb....

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by RendeR

I know everyone is going to pile on me today because of jackal's supposed scan.

I know he's lying, but I'm just a white bishop, I have nothing to back me up.

Unless another knight scanned me last night?? perhaps? Let us hope anyway.

Even so, I want to lynch jackal first. We lose nothing by testing his claim and we verify everything he's said in the process.

If I'm a wolf and he's right, I die tomorrow either way, BUT if *I* am right, and I am. We kill a wolf tonight we kill another black player tomorrow and the game is all but locked up.

Killing me first leads to the same loop, but wastes a VILLAGER white player
Where lynching JACKAL first gives us a wolf. Either way we're at a good place tomorrow.

Go my way and we're ahead of the game, go his way, it slows us down a day and wastes a white player.

Well, of course you want to lynch me first, it gives you an extra night kill. People can feel free to ask me any questions. I'm also working to try and find our last wolf. I moved forwards in the hope of scanning MC or PB (settled on MC), but there are no pawns in my sight line. I'll try again tonight.

[The Jackal]

dola

what I -assume- is our last wolf, if there are more than two wolves left we're in trouble.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Well, of course you want to lynch me first, it gives you an extra night kill. People can feel free to ask me any questions. I'm also working to try and find our last wolf. I moved forwards in the hope of scanning MC or PB (settled on MC), but there are no pawns in my sight line. I'll try again tonight.

the night kills wil happen either way, you only get one a night and if I'm lynched you'll die tomorow and the last wolf will still get a shot.

The only thing killing you off first does is save 1 good white player. Killing me first wastes one letting you run loose one extra night.

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Well, of course you want to lynch me first, it gives you an extra night kill. People can feel free to ask me any questions. I'm also working to try and find our last wolf. I moved forwards in the hope of scanning MC or PB (settled on MC), but there are no pawns in my sight line. I'll try again tonight.

I welcome a scan at any chance you get.

[mccollins]

Can anyone see oliegirl (black Rook)? She should be on the C-file.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by mccollins

Can anyone see oliegirl (black Rook)? She should be on the C-file.

Yes, I can see her. You're correct. C4.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by RendeR

the night kills wil happen either way, you only get one a night and if I'm lynched you'll die tomorow and the last wolf will still get a shot.

The only thing killing you off first does is save 1 good white player. Killing me first wastes one letting you run loose one extra night.

Listen, we have the same argument here. If we lynch the villager (me) tonight, then you get an extra night of kills by the end of the game, because it'll still take at least two lynches to get rid of the wolves (presuming there are 2 left, which I think we've pretty much all agreed upon is most likely). If we lynch you then there's only one wolf left and only one more lynch needed to eliminate the wolves.

Also, I'm sure this will be brought up at some point by someone - why haven't the wolves killed me yet? I really don't know. The only thing I can guess is that they've been on the ropes for a little while now and I've been a risky night target because I had to come out on day 1, and rooks may have been protecting me at night. If you have been, rooks, I thank you.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Listen, we have the same argument here. If we lynch the villager (me) tonight, then you get an extra night of kills by the end of the game, because it'll still take at least two lynches to get rid of the wolves (presuming there are 2 left, which I think we've pretty much all agreed upon is most likely). If we lynch you then there's only one wolf left and only one more lynch needed to eliminate the wolves.

Also, I'm sure this will be brought up at some point by someone - why haven't the wolves killed me yet? I really don't know. The only thing I can guess is that they've been on the ropes for a little while now and I've been a risky night target because I had to come out on day 1, and rooks may have been protecting me at night. If you have been, rooks, I thank you.

Or far more simple and believable: You're a wolf.


See we don't know who the last wolf is so saying leaving me alive allows more night kills makes no sense. As long as any one wolf lives night kills can happen. I'm not trying to use that as the argment to lynch you. the night kills will occur either way, wether you're alive or dead.

Killing me firs leaves a villager white bishop alive, and eliminate a wolf white knight.

You're correct though, its your word against mine. I KNOW you're the wolf, because I know I am not one. You have far more support than I do, being a knight piece and being the on to make the first allegation. All I can do is state what I know and that is that you're lying about the scan.

The voters will decide.

[mccollins]

I don't think the wolves get a second chance on night kills if a Rook happens to pull of a successful bodyguard.

I just think it's good for the wolves to have us confused by you two.

FWIW, going back to the theory that the wolves are spread among the piece types, we have not had a Bishop wolf (RendeR), but we have had a Knight wolf (Anxiety).

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by RendeR

The voters will decide.

Definitely, it's up to them. I'm kind of surprised you went straight for this route today though, considering it seemed like a lot of people were on board with cronin's plan of taking out SY then olie. Though trying to preserve olie at least another day makes sense from a wolf point of view, as they want to extend this game as much as possible.

[mccollins]

dola, I meant to quote this:

Originally Posted by The Jackal

If you have been, rooks, I thank you.

[The Jackal]

[quote=mccollins;1726612]I don't think the wolves get a second chance on night kills if a Rook happens to pull of a successful bodyguard.[quote]

Sorry, didn't mean to suggest a rook had successfully blocked an attack against me, we'd know if something like that happened. Just saying if the rooks have been protecting me, I appreciate it.

[jeheinz72]

Those thoughts (the confusion and the piece type) fit for me. Frankly, were I forced to put money awhile back on the last two wolves it would've been a bishop (RendeR) and PB. He's acted fishy and being a pawn would fit.

I still don't know if we don't just lynch Olie though and decimate black. Or are you thinking that is overkill mccollins?

[The Jackal]

And I meant to not screw up your quote. Things happen.

[The Jackal]

PB has been pretty quiet. But so has NTN, and hell, he's our king. Where's the leadership, man!

[Passacaglia]

All PMs have been sent out. Day 6 ends Tuesday 3 PM Eastern.

[jeheinz72]

I'm really curious why RendeR hasn't moved yet. How much is he helping us if he's kicking it on the back line?

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

.. and PB. He's acted fishy and being a pawn would fit.

I have a list of reasons, but half the time he seems villager too. If PB is a wolf, he's played it VERY well in our PMs.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

PB has been pretty quiet. But so has NTN, and hell, he's our king. Where's the leadership, man!

Yeah, sorry. I had a pretty big problem at school before my last hour class and I broke up a gang fight. I JUST got done with the police so my apologies, believe me (we'll talk post-game). But I haven't been able to be on until now, sorry.

[jeheinz72]

Oh geez, not the ol' "Broke up a gang fight and couldn't make it". Like that excuse hasn't been used to death!

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Oh geez, not the ol' "Broke up a gang fight and couldn't make it". Like that excuse hasn't been used to death!

Yeah, exactly! I'm going to catch up now.

[PurdueBrad]

Alright, I'm kind of surprised Cronin went in all honesty. I figured that they would go after voting power, the other pawn or myself, especially with us taking out another four vote block. The fact that Cronin went makes me think that they realize his plan was probably the right plan.

vote Oliegirl

Although Mccollins, I agree, if she uses her powers for 'good', she could be helpful. I guess my question would be what is in it for her? Beating the wolves is always a good incentive though so maybe that'll do it.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Yeah, sorry. I had a pretty big problem at school before my last hour class and I broke up a gang fight. I JUST got done with the police so my apologies, believe me (we'll talk post-game). But I haven't been able to be on until now, sorry.

That's pretty badass whether you're a wolf or not.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

That's pretty badass whether you're a wolf or not.

TY, thankfully I spent a year and a half as a bouncer in college as well as doing some ammy boxing. Makes those situations a little easier to handle.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

PB has been pretty quiet. But so has NTN, and hell, he's our king. Where's the leadership, man!

Sorry this game has come during exams and graduation. I turned in the grades a little while ago. In terms of what to do. ilike St. Cronin's plan

Vote Olie

This should leave Neon pretty defenseless and we should go in for the kill.

[mccollins]

I lean towards voting out a wolf.

Just throwin' that out there with the votes for oliegirl coming in.

[oliegirl]

I always vote for a wolf first and that has been my intention for most of this game...I figure if NC and I can stay alive, and get the wolves out, then maybe, by some miracle we might be able to pull off a win...

I'm not a wolf, and there is a some benefit to keeping me around, depending on what team you are on

[mccollins]

oliegirl, can you bodyguard the same person two nights in a row?

From the rules, it seems that you can.

[Narcizo]

First of all I'm sorry about cronin being offed. I think it's directly a result of my actions yesterday but if it's any consolation I believe it's benefited the white villager cause. We still have all our pawns (nearer to becoming Queens) and rooks

Heinz is right that OlieGirl is on C4. I know her ability is to block board attacks, which is no use to us and potential dangerous as she can easily block for Neon without running any risk of being captured herself. The only person it makes sense for her to use this power on is herself. She can't use it on Neon and she's no reason to want to protect white pieces from a board attack. The fact that she's moved to C4 suggests that she's planning on looking for NTN, rather than blocking for Neon, although she can easily double back to C8 or C7 and block for him there. I'm not saying this to say that we should vote to lynch OlieGirl, just providing the facts.

[Neon_Chaos]

This is interesting.

Narc, how do you know that that's her ability?

[Narcizo]

Anyway, I know none of you have any real reason to listen to me but I'll write my thoughts and hope that you'll pay attention to them now or should I be killed or lynched.

My first assumption is that there are two wolves left, or three wolves, one of which is OlieGirl. Anything else and we're pretty much screwed anyway. There's a chance that the wolves are OlieGirl and one of Jackal or Render but I think that's just wishful thinking at this stage. I think the evidence of the last two night kills points strongly to those wolves coming from The Jackal, Render and myself with PB a possibility. Heinz is a distant candidate while I'm 95% sure that mccollins is a villager and 99% sure that we can't really hope to win if he isn't.

Look at the choice of night kills the last two night.

Night 4 Qwikshot is killed
Now the wolves knew that Render was going to be scanned by Jackal that night and they knew that PB was going to be scanned by Qwikshot. When the board is already hugely unbalanced in favour of white, why would the wolves want to take out another black piece, albeit a knight. Particularly if there is the possibility that he is being guarded.

My first question is why Render didn't move away from Jackal if he knew he was going to be scanned by him, or night kill him. Maybe he was worried about Jackal being protected. Which means he should move away immediately and find an excuse for it. If Render is innocent then that makes sense, he was expecting the Jackal to confirm him as a villager. But then, on the other hand, why would the Jackal risk exposing himself claiming Render was a wolf at this stage of the game. We kill Render, find he's a villager and then turn on the Jackal right.

OK so another explanation is that either Render or Jackal is working with PB and they're trying to cover for him. I just have a hard time buying that though - I'd already provided a possible out for PB by questioning how much we could rely on a black piece seer outing a white wolf. If Render is the wolf, the better play is to protect himself by killing Jackal and then letting PB take his chances in an argument with Qwik. If Jackal is the wolf then it sort of makes sense that they kill Qwik and Jackal finds a scapegoat to cover for the death of Qwik. We lynch Render, lynch Jackal

I don't see any reason for a two-man wolf team including mccollins or Jeheinz (or myself for that matter) to expose one member in this way (whether it be Jackal lying or Render hanging around to be scanned). In fact I know that a wolf-team including heinz would believe that they could do a lot more damage elsewhere by letting Qwik live. He would kill me and let a post i intended to make after the deadline do a lot of damage to Qwik's credibility. As a black piece I think it would have been enough to justify a lynch on Qwik. Better play for him to look to kill elsewhere.

Of course there's a chance that Render intended to move away and just made a mistake or was blocked. My (imprecise) look at the map doesn't seem to back up the latter idea though. Or it could be that Jackal and Render are working together and Jackal would come up smelling of roses once Render is lynched.

Night 5: Cronin dies

In terms of controlling the board this makes no sense at all. As a bishop Cronin was probably one of the weakest pieces left in play. I maintain that if either of the pawns are wolves then their best of killing the other pawn or one of the rooks. If one of their pawns becomes a queen then they can easily block attacks for Neon. Sure it would out them (eventually), but in the case of mccollins it might not matter with his 4 votes, PB might still see the angle in it. I think Heinz would take his chances night killing through the pawns as well. Were I working with Render I might kill cronin to set up this post out of desperation. If Render and the Jackal are working together then they would be looking to vote Render today and either set up PB with a bogus scan tonight or try to lynch me, based on cronin's comment that he thought Render and I were wolves. I see the flurry of posting immediately after cronin's death as very indicative - can't help but feel that it all seems staged.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos

This is interesting.

Narc, how do you know that that's her ability?

Because I encountered it. Were it not her ability I would have captured her or, more likely, she would not have moved where she did in the first place.

[Neon_Chaos]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

First of all I'm sorry about cronin being offed. I think it's directly a result of my actions yesterday but if it's any consolation I believe it's benefited the white villager cause. We still have all our pawns (nearer to becoming Queens) and rooks

Heinz is right that OlieGirl is on C4. I know her ability is to block board attacks, which is no use to us and potential dangerous as she can easily block for Neon without running any risk of being captured herself. The only person it makes sense for her to use this power on is herself. She can't use it on Neon and she's no reason to want to protect white pieces from a board attack. The fact that she's moved to C4 suggests that she's planning on looking for NTN, rather than blocking for Neon, although she can easily double back to C8 or C7 and block for him there. I'm not saying this to say that we should vote to lynch OlieGirl, just providing the facts.

The only way you'd know this is if hoopsguy, olie's rook partner, told you.

Wolf.

Vote Narcizo

[Narcizo]

If we lynch OlieGirl then it's difficult to assess our chances of grabbing Neon before the wolves pick us off, without knowing where he is. Both heinz and I can reach the 7th row today if we're not blocked by another white piece but we don't know if Neon is waiting there for us. My feelings are that we can probably win if neither of the pawns are wolves. Or we lose if one of them is. (although I think we might have a chance with PB as a wolf, and has to out himself to block a kill). If one of the rooks is a bad guy then I think we still have a chance, but not as good as if Render and Jackal are the wolves. Like I said it's difficult to tell our chances without knowing the situation.

If we go the lynch white pieces route, then I think we have to commit to it and not worry about OlieGirl. We have to rely on NTN avoiding her if she commits to an attack or we see her pull back to defend Neon. I think it's logical to lynch Render today, me or Jackal tomorrow and then me or Jackal the day after. I don't really think we're going to get much more reliable information than we currently have, other than board blocks by white pieces. If we go three days without a bodyguard block then we're only going to get a stalemate (at best). If we get a block then I think we get a win if we lynch both wolves in three days but we get a stalemate or a loss if we don't get them in that time. This means that if PB, heinz or mccollins is a wolf then we probably lose the game.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos

The only way you'd know this is if hoopsguy, olie's rook partner, told you.

Wolf.

Vote Narcizo

I thought you wanted to wolves to win rather than the white pieces Neon. If you really think I'm a wolf then you shouldn't be voting for me.

[Narcizo]

Heinz can confirm that my position is consistent with me bouncing off of OlieGirl. He can also confirm that I intended to move to C4.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Wow, guess Cronin's plan really hit close to home for some wolves....

VOTE THE JACKAL

He's a wolf, no other reason for him to lie about his scan.

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Vote RendeR

If the majority of the team wants to lynch olie and continue to follow cronin's plan, that's fine, but RendeR is a wolf. Up to you guys.

Originally Posted by RendeR

You're correct though, its your word against mine. I KNOW you're the wolf, because I know I am not one. You have far more support than I do, being a knight piece and being the on to make the first allegation. All I can do is state what I know and that is that you're lying about the scan.

The voters will decide.

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Definitely, it's up to them. I'm kind of surprised you went straight for this route today though, considering it seemed like a lot of people were on board with cronin's plan of taking out SY then olie. Though trying to preserve olie at least another day makes sense from a wolf point of view, as they want to extend this game as much as possible.

Rereading these posts just seem to scream out "Vote for one or the other of us and the other one (probably Render) will be cleared!"

[Narcizo]

I mean Render will be lynched and Jackal will be cleared.

I bet Jackal will then lead a lynch vote against me, which he will probably win especially when he clears mccollins to get his 4 votes. I have to say I'm pretty confused as to why Jackal was planning on scanning mccollins rather than PurdueBrad. Of the two PB seems like the better bet of being a wolf. I guess you could argue that mccollins has 4 votes so he's more powerful and should be checked first but I would have thought going for a likely wolf should be the priority at this stage.

[PurdueBrad]

For most of the game I decided that there had to be a pawn wolf, it would only make sense. But I do not believe that mccollins is a wolf and obviously, whether or not I was one, I would say here I'm not. I would like to point out that mccollins' voting record this game is strong, particularly back to day one with the Hoops vote. Also, he has proved to be incredibly valuable as a partner because I don't understand chess that well yet.

As for myself, I was originally on Hoops day one and pulled off of him because, as usual, I listened to him (something I need to stop doing). But I believe I embraced being scanned and even forewarned what was going to happen (and I don't mean in a KWhit way) AND I'm the one person that revealed board locations when St. Cronin asked for them. That's all I have defense-wise vs. being a wolf but I'm also not getting drawn into this discussion any further.