Werewolf CLX - Atlantic City - GAME OVER

[Autumn]

Here are the services that can be hired today in Atlantic City.

DAY TEN SERVICES FOR HIRE
Mick "Stones" McGee - Hired muscle for the guy who wants some protection
Donna Black Investigations - When you need somebody checked out
Cookie's Ladies - Send somebody a "friend" to entertain them through the night
Sandy Back Messenger Service - When you need to send a message fast
Casino2Casino Wire Transfer - When you want to send a buck to a friend

BLACKMARKET SERVICES - HIRE AT YOUR OWN RISK
The Money Hole - money lending for the desperate gambler
Nicky the Trigger, hitman - they say that Nicky will make a guy disappear for you
"Smiling Jane" Smith, thief - her light fingers will dip in someone's wallet for you

[Coffee Warlord]

Out at bar. But I got the seer. And amazingly narc is clean.

[Coffee Warlord]

I'm drunk. But I really wanted narc to be bad. Now I am unhappy.

[The Jackal]

vote no lynch

[The Jackal]

I really wish you had scanned CR if you are a villager

[mauchow]

Bah. I played well for five days then awfully the last five. Bring it home village.

[The Jackal]

I didn't notice that Narc asked to be scanned prior to deadline, was checking on my phone

[The Jackal]

unvote no lynch

[The Jackal]

we shall discuss on the morrow

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I really wish you had scanned CR if you are a villager

I would have preferred CW not get the seer, no matter who he scanned. We can't trust what he says, especially if it's possible the last wolf could have more than one bid. We don't knowbyet if that was for sure because of path, or if it was some other way.

I would have preferred me or CW getting scanned, by someone more clear.

[Narcizo]

That wasn't the most likliest results I thought of I have to admit. Coffee if you are a villager you weren't actually supposed to scan me. You should have scanned Chief.

My probabilities are now Chief 45%, Coffee 45%, Jackal 10%.

Chief - why didn't you bid more than 300 on the seer?

So the options are
Coffee is the wolf and picked the right seer-bidder (mau)
Chief is the wolf and made a great play on day one and ridden his luck all the way to the end.
Jackal is a deep-cover wolf who has been phenominally lucky.

Jackal - are you sure there haven't been any repercusions of bidding on the hitman?

[Narcizo]

If there have been no repurcussions then you've won Jackal. Well done. Let's hope that means I've won as well.

[Coffee Warlord]

I went back and forth between CR and Narc. But Narc was driving me nuts.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

We can't trust what he says, especially if it's possible the last wolf could have more than one bid.

Oh god, don't you start.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

If there have been no repurcussions then you've won Jackal. Well done. Let's hope that means I've won as well.

At the end of both of my black market interactions there was language informing me that I'd dodged a bullet - so I'm pretty sure we're ok on that front.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

At the end of both of my black market interactions there was language informing me that I'd dodged a bullet - so I'm pretty sure we're ok on that front.

And you have some money?

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I would have preferred CW not get the seer, no matter who he scanned. We can't trust what he says

Well actually you can in this case. Either he's a villager telling the truth, or he's the last wolf. Telling the truth.

[Narcizo]

Well, except for the bit about winning the seer. He would be lying about that bit, obviously. But the important bit about me being a villager would have to be true.

[Chief Rum]

Well, I definitely believe CW got the seer. Someone else would have spoken up by now if he hadn't. Unless we still have two wolves, just on separate mafia teams. But I find that hard to believe.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Well, I definitely believe CW got the seer

Really? You can't think of a way that this could have gone down if Coffee was a wolf but didn't get the seer? I find that a bit, dunno, suspicious.

How come you didn't bid more than 300 on the seer, Chief?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Really? You can't think of a way that this could have gone down if Coffee was a wolf but didn't get the seer? I find that a bit, dunno, suspicious.

How come you didn't bid more than 300 on the seer, Chief?

I only had $610. But I didn't bid on the seer anyway. I bid all my cash on the hitman. I tried to do what The Jackal did the other day.

I have more money now since I won the bet on path, not that it much matters at this point.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Really? You can't think of a way that this could have gone down if Coffee was a wolf but didn't get the seer? I find that a bit, dunno, suspicious.

And lay it out for me, Narc. What am I missing? How could a lone wolf CW claim the seer when he didn't get it, and not have whoever did win the seer come out against him? The only way I can see it is if there is a second wolf who actually won the seer, but is on a different team. So what am I missing?

[Coffee Warlord]

Well, for me it's obviously between Chief and Jackal at this point.

And we have to pick right today, because we've got to assume the NK is going to the wolves.

[Coffee Warlord]

So.

Zinto "cleared" Jackal, right? If, as I suspect, the starting wolf numbers were 3-3, that would mean Zinto was clearing one of his own. Which would be ... extremely ballsy.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

So.

Zinto "cleared" Jackal, right? If, as I suspect, the starting wolf numbers were 3-3, that would mean Zinto was clearing one of his own. Which would be ... extremely ballsy.

Second level thinking? "Naw, that would be too ballsy for a wolf to pull off?"

That would be a tough call to make, but technically it is possible.

To me, with the candidates we have available, you still feel most to me like a wolf, but if there is an alternate explanation (again, from my perspective), The Jackal being "cleared" by Zinto would be the next best option.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

It's pretty apparent the wolves had the ability to force path to purchase and use services. My original theory was sound - path was effectively a bastardized cunning.

And no. No they can't. Still.

Coffee. You saw my reasoning yesterday showing that if this was the case I could almost certainly not be a wolf. Why did you scan me? Surely it would have made much more sense to scan Chief, given the business with the day 3 and 5 bids. At a pinch Jackal.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

By the by, re: two wolves remaining theories. That would mean we started with an uneven number of wolves on the two sides, and what, 7 wolves? I'm sceptical of that.

You know, I have a theory about this, because I was skeptical too. We know Danny was in play for both mafias. Part of one but apparently converted to the other.

Well, what if he started the game as a turncoat? Each wolf team starts with three apiece, and then there's a fourth guy, who can choose to be with one or the other, but he will be placed with the team that he doesn't choose and act as a traitor?

Is it a reach? Hell yes. But it's the kind of odd ball thing I could see from Autumn's game, and it fits with the two wolf theory possibility for explaining some of the things we have seen.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

And lay it out for me, Narc.

Sorry if I come off as a dick there Chief. I'll wait and see what Jackal says before I answer you. I thought it was pretty obvious but maybe I'm wrong. I reside in paranoia at the moment.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Sorry if I come off as a dick there Chief. I'll wait and see what Jackal says before I answer you. I thought it was pretty obvious but maybe I'm wrong. I reside in paranoia at the moment.

Tone's so hrd to read on the Internet.

I didn't think you were coming off as a dick at all, so sorry if my response seemed harsh (wasn't intended to be).

I am honestly curious what scenario you're seeing. I'll admit maybe I am not fully invested right now here at work (on my day off ), so maybe I am just not giving it as much thought as I should.

But right now no explanation for CW claiming to have the seer but not having it makes sense to me unless there's another wolf.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Is it a reach? Hell yes. But it's the kind of odd ball thing I could see from Autumn's game, and it fits with the two wolf theory possibility for explaining some of the things we have seen.

If that's the case we've almost certainly lost already and it's just about the wolves deciding who wins.

I don't actually think it's possible now that mau has come up good. All the rest of us had valid bids on day whenever it was. I sent a message to Jackal, Coffee sent the pros to mau, Jackal scanned path and you BGed Jackal. So, in that case, it would have to be using Path as a proxy AND there being two wolves.

[Chief Rum]

Yeah, that's a real longshot. If the last wolf is not CW (from my perspective) or not me or CW (from yours), then the next best explanation seems to be The Jackal being "cleared" by Zinto, a wolf.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

And you have some money?

I have $337 at the moment from winning the bet yesterday

[Narcizo]

Anything ou want to say before tomorrow would be appreciated Jackal.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Anything ou want to say before tomorrow would be appreciated Jackal.

Are you looking for an answer to something specific? I have to figure out to vote for between CW/CR. Alternatively, we can try for no lynch and hope we get another shot at a seer scan.

[The Jackal]

The fact that CW scanned you bothers me. I don't know if I buy the "I wanted him to be bad argument." If that was a play as a villager, that hurts. I vouched that Narc sent me a message - if you think Narc is bad that means I pretty much would have had to lie, in which case you should have scanned me (since the Zinto scan is obviously useless), or that Narc would have been able to send a message and use path to bid on the hitman? Obviously someone had path make a bid, and we don't know where, so I guess I've talked myself down a little from that, but I still am not a huge fan of the use on Narc.

[The Jackal]

For some reason I've been assuming that path was used to bid on one of the non-black market services, but I guess he could've been used to bid on the hitman.

[The Jackal]

Still wish you had scanned CR though!

[The Jackal]

If there are still two wolves left we are pretty much boned anyways, I have a hard time believing that is the case.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

The fact that CW scanned you bothers me. I don't know if I buy the "I wanted him to be bad argument." If that was a play as a villager, that hurts. I vouched that Narc sent me a message

Considering I just spent basically 2 days going back and forth with him, yeah, I was gonna scan him.

[Coffee Warlord]

Even though he's probably going to be rather hard to convince to vote with me rather than against me.

[The Jackal]

Narc, I'm not sure where you are at, but what are you thinking in the CW vs CR situation?

[The Jackal]

D1/D2 voting is pretty much all there is to look at, at this point, and they both have sketchy moves related to the Vegas Mafia.

D1: CW votes DT when font and zinto both have one vote - this could be pretty huge.

D1: Chief votes bullet, zinto and font still have one each, by this point JAG and bullet both have two.

D2: CW votes Danny, no vegas are on the block, switches to DV after JAG reveal, interestingly enough, Chief doesn't come in until very late and puts a 6th vote on font after my reveal.

[The Jackal]

So, CW voted for DV after JAG's reveal, says he hadn't caught up on the thread, then I reveal right afterwards and he backs off. Not sure what to make of that, or if anything is to be made of it.

[The Jackal]

I would be aggressive if I had a vibe vote, but mau was the one pinging me. CW hasn't spurred warm feelings the whole game, CR has been very quiet. I honestly can't say which way I'm leaning. Would love to hear what you think, Narc.

[The Jackal]

That infamous night doesn't do us a whole lot of good here. Mau confirmed that CW sent him the ladies, I have no way of confirming that CR used the BG on me. Either way one of them had to have path bid on a service. I suppose that makes me lean more towards CR since Mau confirmed the ladies service.

[The Jackal]

But I realize as I read that, it doesn't make a ton of sense because either way we are looking at someone who was able to use/bid on two services, so the fact that we can't confirm CR's BG doesn't mean that he didn't use it. Just means we know for sure that CW did what he said he did.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Narc, I'm not sure where you are at, but what are you thinking in the Jackal vs CR situation?

Fixed for you, Narc.

[The Jackal]

The sad thing is I can understand why I might be lynched, but if I am, it's going to be epicly sad. I made a hell of a play N1, I had correct feelings on other wolves, particularly murrayyyyy, but I'm the first to admit I haven't had any friggin clue what's been going on the last few days.

[The Jackal]

I still want a no lynch and one of CW or CR scanned .. we can't guarantee that happens, but that would help.

[The Jackal]

vote CR