WW LXVI: Money Money Money (Game Over!)

[Tyrith]

*bleeds on the carpet*

[Alan T]

Another topic we should discuss today is whether or not we want to end the game today. Yesterday I was fairly against it as I felt we had a pretty warm trail with Claphasma's miscounting of his finances and there were too many unknowns involved in voting to end the game..


Today I feel so far a bit less confident in which direction to go in.. and feel it is more risk today. We didn't lose any money in yesterday's lynch and last night's kills money went to me and Chief RUm (other than what was on hand) and I am still assuming Chief is good.

I still am troubled that I don't have a good feel for how much money the wolves started with though, so I think I would like a little more hashing out of possible people to vote for at least in the time being... However if we get closer to the end of the day, if we don't have a great feel for who to go at, we might want to consider just ending the day now.

I guess since it tripped Claphasma up, perhaps the best direction to go today would be to try to get an accounting of finances of people whom we are likely to vote for. I would be interested to see how Render and Schmidty have spent their money thus far, and a day by day accounting of how much money they had and have.. It might be our best way to catch someone today.

[DaddyTorgo]

i think that sounds like a good idea alan.

i would be happy to provide mine too, if it comes to that in anyone's eyes.

in my way of thinking, barkeep would have wanted to do something to ensure that we didn't end the game too early so i'm just purely speculating that the wolves started with at least a little bit more money than us. i don't know exactly how much, or what they have tied up in CD's, but it seems to make sense.

[RendeR]

Alan, you do realize that buy stating our money records anyone with money in CD's right now becomes the prime night-kill target? Since that money doesn't count towards end game?

I'll already listed what I attempted to buy, I failed each time. My money isn't as high as it could be because of 2 missed votes. I've had to change beneficiaries twice also, blowing another 20k.

I have about 35k in the bank right now.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

i think that sounds like a good idea alan.

i would be happy to provide mine too, if it comes to that in anyone's eyes.

in my way of thinking, barkeep would have wanted to do something to ensure that we didn't end the game too early so i'm just purely speculating that the wolves started with at least a little bit more money than us. i don't know exactly how much, or what they have tied up in CD's, but it seems to make sense.

Well yesterday Hoops estimated that we had roughly a 300k lead on the wolves. Last night, the only things that changed is 7 of us and I assume 2 wolves got an additional 15k from voting which would have extended our lead another 75k over them.. however to balance that Sndvls spent a bit on the bodyguard..

Schmidty spent alot on the hitman, but we don't know which side that goes to. Either way its not enough to catch up on a 375k lead we have on them if Hoops' estimates are right.

I think there is still uncertainty regarding how much they started with and it makes me uneasy. So i think we should leave this as an option to discuss if we don't end up having a choice for a lynch that we feel confident in.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Alan, you do realize that buy stating our money records anyone with money in CD's right now becomes the prime night-kill target? Since that money doesn't count towards end game?

I'll already listed what I attempted to buy, I failed each time. My money isn't as high as it could be because of 2 missed votes. I've had to change beneficiaries twice also, blowing another 20k.

I have about 35k in the bank right now.

I fully realize that if you are a villager, providing that information also gives information to wolves. However we also have seen in this game several times people have had to provide that information (I had to myself several days ago). Its what helped us catch Claphasma yesterday, and I think right now it could help us catch the next wolf.

I don't want everyone to share that information, but since my vote today right now is leaning towards you over Schmidty, I'm looking for something to help me feel that lynching you might be a bad idea. Right now the only thing you have for defense is that you missed two votes.. At this point that isn't as great of a defense as it might have been 2 days ago.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Scmidty is lighting up my warning lights more DT, I'd vote for him before you at this point if thats any consolation =)

Go for it.

Here, I'll give you more reason, by perhaps pissing you off:

VOTE RENDER

[DaddyTorgo]

I'm going to push in the opposite direction - I think if you look at the chain of "AND'S" required...it requires 3 for RendeR to likely be a wolf, versus one for Schmidty. Just seems more likely that Schmidty is a wolf, and latched onto the "vote hoops early and often and hope to go UTR as someone playing out a grudge" or whatever type of strategy.

I'd like to see some sort of accounting of his finances too.

that being said...i'm a team player. i don't want to split the vote too much. i'd like to see us come to a consensus, or close to one

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

I'm going to push in the opposite direction - I think if you look at the chain of "AND'S" required...it requires 3 for RendeR to likely be a wolf, versus one for Schmidty. Just seems more likely that Schmidty is a wolf, and latched onto the "vote hoops early and often and hope to go UTR as someone playing out a grudge" or whatever type of strategy.

I'd like to see some sort of accounting of his finances too.

that being said...i'm a team player. i don't want to split the vote too much. i'd like to see us come to a consensus, or close to one

There still is the person who was converted out there to deal with. If the vote is kept close, we might learn information about who that is from that.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Alan T

There still is the person who was converted out there to deal with. If the vote is kept close, we might learn information about who that is from that.

true...true

[SnDvls]

why doesn't everyone pass their money to me since I won't be killed tonight with the bodyguard.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

why doesn't everyone pass their money to me since I won't be killed tonight with the bodyguard.

i know you're joking, but that makes me think you're a wolf

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

I did it. I killed hoops. I admit it.

I made a really bad mistake. I guess there's a reason I should just hang back in the shadows. I actually feel like quitting right now. I probably lost the game for us.

Don't let making a mistake like that put you off of WW. I've lost a game miscalculating on a lone ranger night action before (interestingly enough, on hoops as well).

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Don't let making a mistake like that put you off of WW. I've lost a game miscalculating on a lone ranger night action before (interestingly enough, on hoops as well).

I'm clearly running well in WW lately

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Another topic we should discuss today is whether or not we want to end the game today. Yesterday I was fairly against it as I felt we had a pretty warm trail with Claphasma's miscounting of his finances and there were too many unknowns involved in voting to end the game..

Trying to figure the finances without a spreadsheet makes my head hurt. I'm going to need to take a look at it, but it may be a little later until I get a chance.

[RendeR]

I'll take the lead on Schmidty for you DT. I agree with you that its a lot easier right now to believe a short list of "ifs and ands" that points at him than it does the larger list to point at me. I know I'm not a cutthroat and I've been sitting here twiddling my thumbs for lack of winning anything useful so now I'll take charge of getting a vote going on the guy I think really IS a wolf.

VOTE SCHMIDTY

[DaddyTorgo]

by all accounts we likely have a lead in terms of $$ as well, so i'm not overly concerned at this point with say...voting to bankrupt one of you two and then messing up and having to take the other.

i THINK (although i can't be sure of course) that that is something that we can afford at this stage of the game. particularly as the cutthroat's can't get an endgame-vote on their own, numbers-wise

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

by all accounts we likely have a lead in terms of $$ as well, so i'm not overly concerned at this point with say...voting to bankrupt one of you two and then messing up and having to take the other.

i THINK (although i can't be sure of course) that that is something that we can afford at this stage of the game. particularly as the cutthroat's can't get an endgame-vote on their own, numbers-wise

Considering Claphasma didn't vote for end game yesterday at all or even make note about it as far as I can see in looking back, I'm reconsidering my point from yesterday. I had uncertainty regarding Hoops numbers yesterday as I couldn't be for sure he wasn't converted. Now we know he was still good when he dies, it helps me trust his estimates a bit more. I think that coupled with Claphasma not voting for end game helps me feel a little better about this possibility.

I still think it has alot of unknowns involved though. I think the way I will go with it is if I don't feel that good about the lynch today, I might vote to do that and end the game.

[SnDvls]

Barkeep - I voted end game yesterday do I need to revote it today or is it there until I unvote end game?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

Barkeep - I voted end game yesterday do I need to revote it today or is it there until I unvote end game?

Revote

[DaddyTorgo]

Fortunately I have time to think over this whole RendeR vs. Schmidty thing today

[SnDvls]

I have to pick someone and I feel the least good about him so

Vote RendeR

[DaddyTorgo]

Not a lot of discussion today. For shame.

Hey Pass...who should I vote for?

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

I have to pick someone and I feel the least good about him so

Vote RendeR

Can you say why? or is this just a gut reaction to my not being around much?

[RendeR]

Hrm, I suggest we keep this vote close, so we can see if there is a move to save Schmidty later in the voting. There won't be any rush to save me, as I'm just another rich guy.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Hrm, I suggest we keep this vote close, so we can see if there is a move to save Schmidty later in the voting. There won't be any rush to save me, as I'm just another rich guy.

devil's advocate: or a wolf with no money left b/c you already transferred it away and told the others to abandon you.

i'm just throwing that possibility out there. It can't be discounted for either you or schmidty.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Not a lot of discussion today. For shame.

Hey Pass...who should I vote for?

oh dood bk told me this new rul that if u transfer money 2 me in the thread eye come back as a good guy...srsly

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

devil's advocate: or a wolf with no money left b/c you already transferred it away and told the others to abandon you.

i'm just throwing that possibility out there. It can't be discounted for either you or schmidty.

You're absolutely right, I can't offer any hard evidence that I'm not a cutthroat. But as it stands there seems to be more reasons to vote schmidty than me today, and if thats wrong, we can always kill me tomorrow and still have won the game if I'm the last wolf or even if not. Make sense?

I guess I'm just saying "Take him first!" =)

[Alan T]

I still haven't made up my mind, and I still stand by my comment this morning that I would love for either Render or Schmidty to give full accounting up till now of their finances. Not just a round about estimate that is tough to poke holes in.

Without any form of defense from either side, I'll just have to vote gut.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Can you say why? or is this just a gut reaction to my not being around much?

yup gut based on both of your play this game, really has nothing to do with you not beign around as the same could be said of Schmidty this game...no offense anyone.

[Alan T]

Well, I'm heading out in a bit, but think I can get back later tonight before deadline. I don't have to run the sim for BB-BBCF tonight, so should have time then.

I am saddened that neither of my lynch choices have chosen to try to give a reason to not vote them today. I still am uneasy about voting to end the game as well without more data to why its a good move for us... so I guess for now, I'm doing nothing.

Back later.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Well, I'm heading out in a bit, but think I can get back later tonight before deadline. I don't have to run the sim for BB-BBCF tonight, so should have time then.

I am saddened that neither of my lynch choices have chosen to try to give a reason to not vote them today. I still am uneasy about voting to end the game as well without more data to why its a good move for us... so I guess for now, I'm doing nothing.

Back later.

ALan, its not that I'm unwilling to give you a reason, its the simple fact that I have nothing to offer? I can't say anything that will make you feel any better about me.

I have 35k in the bank right now, I have money in CD's, I won't say how much as its a pitifully low amount. I have my pride!

I tried to buy several commodities, but was outbid each night. I missed two votes due to work and I've had to change my beneficiary twice so I'm 50K behind everyone due to that also.

I really wish I could give you more information but I just don't have the information to give =)

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

yup gut based on both of your play this game, really has nothing to do with you not beign around as the same could be said of Schmidty this game...no offense anyone.

And just to respond to this as well, I have been trying VERY hard to turn over a new leaf so to speak with my game play. I used to get all fired up and belligerant and all it did was ruin the game for others. So the last few games I've tried really hard to not let things get under my skin and to just play a quieter calmer game. So please don't judge my play against how I USED to play as I am intentionally trying to not be THAT guy.

[Mr. Wednesday]

The trouble I have with today is that the people who seem like interesting candidates are evaporating. The one guy who I didn't already have some reason to trust who "fits the profile" is Schmidty, but his lone ranger play on hoops is something a little out of the ordinary for a wolf to be doing.

As far as end game vs. no... I'd still like to do some sort of trace on how money lies. There's going to be a huge uncertainty related to beneficiaries and who may have been bribed, though. On the one hand, we still have enough money left to control the endgame vote, but on the other hand, if we fall behind in money, we lose control of the lynch vote, and there are some services coming up that are going to be very important to beat out of the wolves for.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I still haven't made up my mind, and I still stand by my comment this morning that I would love for either Render or Schmidty to give full accounting up till now of their finances. Not just a round about estimate that is tough to poke holes in.

Without any form of defense from either side, I'll just have to vote gut.

I don't care either way if you vote for me, but I used all of my money last night. Period. I have 15,000 for voting and that's it. I blew my wad.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Alan, you do realize that buy stating our money records anyone with money in CD's right now becomes the prime night-kill target? Since that money doesn't count towards end game?

I'll already listed what I attempted to buy, I failed each time. My money isn't as high as it could be because of 2 missed votes. I've had to change beneficiaries twice also, blowing another 20k.

I have about 35k in the bank right now.

Did you have some CDs mature yesterday?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by RendeR

And just to respond to this as well, I have been trying VERY hard to turn over a new leaf so to speak with my game play. I used to get all fired up and belligerant and all it did was ruin the game for others. So the last few games I've tried really hard to not let things get under my skin and to just play a quieter calmer game. So please don't judge my play against how I USED to play as I am intentionally trying to not be THAT guy.

I didn't mind "Belligerent Render". That said, I myself have noticed that.

[Chief Rum]

One thing occurred to me today at work. It's a metagame reason, I am afraid, but it's one I can't occur.

Can anyone remember the last time Schmidty's schedule allowed him to make a vote every day in a WW game? Personally, I can't remember that happening in a long, long while. He works at night (IIRC) and sleeps muich of the day. Plus, he has a family he tries to spend waking hours with. So getting on and voting can sometimes be difficult. Schmidty himself would admit this.

And yet he has been present for every vote and participating for a stretch each day. Could it be he is more motivated than usual in this game? That's what I think.

VOTE SCHMIDTY

[Chief Rum]

BTW, message to the wolves: Expect to bid big tonight on the Underworld Connection, because I am going large for that one. And there's nothing you can do to stop it.

Thanks for all the extra cash, hoops.

[Chief Rum]

Better yet, I'll bold that:

Expect to bid big tonight on the Underworld Connection, because I am going large for that one. And there's nothing you can do to stop it.

[DaddyTorgo]

not a lot going on. I think if it's down to render+schmidty today still then i'm going to vote render, but I want to wait and see if there's anyone else around to discuss with

[Alan T]

I think that the limited money accounting that Schmidty has provided feels more accurate to me than Render's accounting today. Schmidty's two services that we know of that he won was the previous PI and the hitman.. those two combined is pretty close to what I would expect him having in total money.. I think it also feels more consistant with how I would expect him to play...

Render on the hand has only given an approximate amount that is a bit less than I would expect him to have even if he changed beneficiary twice. He hasn't told us where the remainder missing money is (he referenced a CD, but didn't give any details), and it just feels like he is trying to stay pretty fuzzy about it all which makes sense after we hung Claphasma on his inaccurate accounting.

Vote Render

[DaddyTorgo]

agree with you Alan. And it seems like things are moving in that direction. I ought to be around from now until deadline so I'm going to hold my vote for a bit just in case.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

agree with you Alan. And it seems like things are moving in that direction. I ought to be around from now until deadline so I'm going to hold my vote for a bit just in case.

I'll be around most likely until deadline too tonight, but I've pretty much given all day at this point and gotten little discussion from them.. so don't expect much to change.

Something Chief posted is making me wonder what the strategy is... Right now we likely have a fairly decent advantage over them.. Are we going after the wolf with the government insider service? If they plan on overbidding Chief Rum on the underground connection.. no lynch today + two night kills tonight could close things up moneywise for them.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I'll be around most likely until deadline too tonight, but I've pretty much given all day at this point and gotten little discussion from them.. so don't expect much to change.

Something Chief posted is making me wonder what the strategy is... Right now we likely have a fairly decent advantage over them.. Are we going after the wolf with the government insider service? If they plan on overbidding Chief Rum on the underground connection.. no lynch today + two night kills tonight could close things up moneywise for them.

Alan, if they outbid me tonight, I say we immediately vote to end the game tonight after deadline.

[DaddyTorgo]

how much do we trust chief? and how important is the underworld connection service to our plans?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

how much do we trust chief? and how important is the underworld connection service to our plans?

I trust him completely.

And the underworld connection isn't very important to us--but it's pretty vital for the wolves.

Keeping it from them is critical, IMO.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

how much do we trust chief? and how important is the underworld connection service to our plans?

I trust Chief as much as you probably at this point. I think Passacaglia tried to kill him off and just fumbled the snap somehow that we won't know until after the game is over. Unless Chief is the convert, I don't think he is a wolf at all.

At this point I would have a hard time believing most of you started off as a wolf other than Render and Schmidty, and I have a hunch on who the convert was too, but not worried about him just yet.

And even though I don't think Jackal is a wolf, he really needs to show up and join in.. He posted in the other WW game signup thread but been absent here.

[DaddyTorgo]

well I know you trust you. I'm just wondering what the "case" is for trusting you I guess. Wondering if you could use some cash infusion...

[Chief Rum]

Also, if I win it, you can pretty much trust me as a villager then (although you should already be pretty surem, since I practically handed clap to the village--with help from others).

If there is no kill or conversion in tonight's Night Phase, the winner of the Underground Connection is essentially a proven villager.