06-01-2009, 01:42 PM | #1501 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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Quote:
I don't see us as 6-5 right now, honestly. I envision 7-4 and I really think that we have a good possibility of getting to 6-2 (assuming a nk goes our way and they get one on us). Although with people too wolfy to say that they are the vanilla wolf, it may not be possible. |
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06-01-2009, 01:43 PM | #1502 |
H.S. Freshman Team
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Madison, Wisconsin
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I'm lost as to why it benefits me to claim vanilla wolf. Shed some light on that for me, please.
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06-01-2009, 01:44 PM | #1503 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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Quote:
If that is the case then Dubb is telling the truth. If he was a wolf, it only makes sense to lie about Lathum here if it's an end game scenario. Otherwise we end up wrong on Lathum, but are still alive and then have a decent chance at figuring this out. |
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06-01-2009, 01:44 PM | #1504 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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I am amazed that Racer and PB both keep completely glossing over the fact that it could be game over if I am lynched today.
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06-01-2009, 01:45 PM | #1505 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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06-01-2009, 01:46 PM | #1506 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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06-01-2009, 01:46 PM | #1507 |
H.S. Freshman Team
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Madison, Wisconsin
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Let me rephrase. How does it benefit the village?
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06-01-2009, 01:47 PM | #1508 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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Quote:
I'm not glossing it over, but how is it different if you're a wolf and dubb isn't? STILL GAME OVER. Either way, with your theory, it is game over if we're wrong. So the game over argument makes no sense at that point. |
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06-01-2009, 01:47 PM | #1509 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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06-01-2009, 01:48 PM | #1510 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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It allows Danny to take a shot at a wolf off of that list. |
06-01-2009, 01:48 PM | #1511 |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
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06-01-2009, 01:49 PM | #1512 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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Quote:
I'm not going to use my power willy nilly, we've have more information to work tonight assuming it's not game over and an additional night kill option. If the data we learn doesn't support that I won't use it. |
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06-01-2009, 01:49 PM | #1513 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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So far, here is who have stated certain roles to be believed:
Hoops- Vanilla Wolf Racer- Tough Villager, Vanilla Wolf USFC Tecmo- Said in a post "I'm a vanilla villager" That leaves Telle, Schmidty, and maybe/hopefully a van. wolf one from USFC. |
06-01-2009, 01:49 PM | #1514 |
H.S. Freshman Team
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Madison, Wisconsin
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All right. Fine. I'm apparently not in any position of trust, and I lack the ammo to change that. So here. I just want it on the record that torching me tonight ends our chances.
I'm the vanilla wolf. |
06-01-2009, 01:50 PM | #1515 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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Quote:
Except for the fact that the village will be the ones picking because we have to believe that person, as a group, first. |
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06-01-2009, 01:50 PM | #1516 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Early, TX
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Quote:
This game doesn't make sense anyway because of lack of facts or patterns, so what does it matter. Might as well just pick a name out of a hat.
__________________
Just beat the devil out of it!!! - Bob Ross |
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06-01-2009, 01:51 PM | #1517 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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Quote:
USFL, I appreciate it and it does go a long way towards where you stand for me. The other thing it should do with all our seers is give you the benefit of a scan assuming we don't 'believe' you are the actual wolf. So for the village, thanks. |
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06-01-2009, 01:52 PM | #1518 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Early, TX
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Quote:
I said near the beginning that I have no role, so you might as well move my name. Thanks. Not that it matters since my word, just like everyone else's means jack this game.
__________________
Just beat the devil out of it!!! - Bob Ross |
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06-01-2009, 01:52 PM | #1519 |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
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06-01-2009, 01:52 PM | #1520 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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No, I think you actually have to make the statement for us to be able to believe you but I'm not 100% on that.
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06-01-2009, 01:53 PM | #1521 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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Quote:
To be fair, there is a possible difference. If Dubb is a wolf, this was an end game play. If Lathum is a wolf, there's no backing one way or the other of this being an end game play. |
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06-01-2009, 01:54 PM | #1522 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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Quote:
Telle, I had a wolf vibe (and that's all it was) from you early but I think it was last game carrying over. Since then, I think you're okay, so you aren't really the one I would pick, you're probably third right now. That being said, I am likely to vote for people that don't do it tomorrow but hey, as everyone has pointed out, there may be no tomorrow so what the hell. |
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06-01-2009, 01:54 PM | #1523 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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Quote:
Tonight based on the lynch, we will have new information to work with. If you end up being believed and what I see doesn't line up with you being a wolf I won't kill you. |
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06-01-2009, 01:57 PM | #1524 | |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
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Quote:
Well forgive me if that doesn't sound overly re-assuring.. seeing as how you've been proclaiming my supposed wolfiness from the mountain-tops with nothing to back it up but "gut". |
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06-01-2009, 01:59 PM | #1525 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Early, TX
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I know everyone hates this, but we might as well just use random.org this lynch. I don't really mean that, but it would be just as informed of a vote as we're going to get anyway.
__________________
Just beat the devil out of it!!! - Bob Ross |
06-01-2009, 02:03 PM | #1526 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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Quote:
Not exactly as we do have at least a 50% chance at hitting a wolf today, well maybe not because the wolves can manipulate the vote. |
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06-01-2009, 02:05 PM | #1527 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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Quote:
What have you done that in anyway indicates you are not a wolf? By sheer numbers, if we assume PB, Tyrith and I are good (which at this point we kind of have to) and then one out of Lathum/Dubb being good, that leaves us with 6 players, 3 or 4 of which being bad. There is a solid 50/50 maybe more chance of you being a wolf just based on numbers and my read has you more likely to be a wolf than Schmidty or USFL at this point. That may change, but that's what I have to go on for now. |
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06-01-2009, 02:05 PM | #1528 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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Oh and if you stay on this stance, you're almost certainly going to be the lynch tomorrow.
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06-01-2009, 02:05 PM | #1529 | |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
I see your frustration but thats not true. We have information, it's just whether you want to believe it or not. You and I are in the same boat with people believing we are wolves. I know I am not and have faith in my scan of Racer, then Dubb goes at night by Danny's hand. That to me is the best play. Dubb could have just as easily claim he scanned you, but I think he knows by my reputation that he could get people to follow. |
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06-01-2009, 02:06 PM | #1530 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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06-01-2009, 02:07 PM | #1531 | |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
why are you so quick to assume Tyrith is good? PB could easily be the fake seer, another point you are choosing to gloss over. |
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06-01-2009, 02:07 PM | #1532 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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Lathum I asked this, but since you trust your scans, you think PB is the false seer?
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06-01-2009, 02:08 PM | #1533 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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Quote:
Obviously that depends largely on what happens with this lynch. If you are telling the truth, I would have to reevaluate that, if you are the wolf then obviously PB is the real seer. |
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06-01-2009, 02:10 PM | #1534 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Early, TX
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Quote:
So be it. We wouldn't lose anything important other than a useless villager with no power. How would I even argue against it? There're no more facts to back up my innocence than there are to condemn me or anyone else. Maybe my death would actually help to establish some type of record of votes to go on. Hell, lynch me today. I'm annoyed by this game.
__________________
Just beat the devil out of it!!! - Bob Ross |
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06-01-2009, 02:12 PM | #1535 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Early, TX
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Quote:
I'll just trust your claim. There's no less reason to trust you than anyone else. Vote Racer This might get me killed today or tomorrow, but at least the villagers will have more to go on. I'll sacrifice myself;.
__________________
Just beat the devil out of it!!! - Bob Ross |
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06-01-2009, 02:13 PM | #1536 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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Quote:
I actually meant Telle, but I guess it could apply to you too. |
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06-01-2009, 02:15 PM | #1537 | ||
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
seems logical Quote:
dude, game over. no reevaluation necessary. May as well start the signup thread for the next game. |
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06-01-2009, 02:15 PM | #1538 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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Quote:
I really wish Lathum would have gone with Dubb, You are 50/50 to be the false seer and with the dwindling villagers the chances for you to falsely scan a wolf were reasonable, as was PB's to scan me as a wolf if he was the false seer. PB did not falsely scan a wolf, I don't know whether you did or not. It makes more sense to vote Dubb though since you know 100% he is a wolf if you're a villager. |
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06-01-2009, 02:16 PM | #1539 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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06-01-2009, 02:18 PM | #1540 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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06-01-2009, 02:23 PM | #1541 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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That wouldn't be the case if you weren't as stubborn on Racer. Otherwise with schmidty now supporting you, there would reasonably be four votes on DUbb right now as originally Racer voted that way.
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06-01-2009, 02:23 PM | #1542 |
College Starter
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Houston, TX
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There's nothing I can really say at this point that hasn't already been said. I'm not moving my vote.
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06-01-2009, 02:26 PM | #1543 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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Tyrith, you are on Lathum right now?
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06-01-2009, 03:28 PM | #1544 | |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Fort Wayne, Indiana
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Quote:
This vote makes no sense today since clearly Dubb or Lathum (or potentially both) are wolves. You could definitely argue for me tomorrow (if Dubb is confirmed good or goes unscanned), but today it just makes no sense. |
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06-01-2009, 03:30 PM | #1545 | |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
There you ga again glossing over the fact that there is no tomorrow unless we get it right. |
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06-01-2009, 03:30 PM | #1546 | |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Fort Wayne, Indiana
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Quote:
Hoops also claimed vanilla villager I believe (which would be a mistake to believe anyone as). |
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06-01-2009, 03:37 PM | #1547 | |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Fort Wayne, Indiana
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Quote:
Well perhaps, but I don't think there is anyway to know if we're at 7-4 or 6-5 right now. If it's 6-5 and we get it wrong, we're screwed. Voting for you makes a little more sense then Dubb at this point because Dubb can be night killed by Danny whereas you cannot. |
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06-01-2009, 03:46 PM | #1548 |
H.S. Freshman Team
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Madison, Wisconsin
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BELIEVE HOOPS AS VANILLA WOLF
BELIEVE RACER AS VANILLA WOLF Just so we can get some believing actually accomplished rather than talked about. |
06-01-2009, 04:00 PM | #1549 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Early, TX
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Quote:
Why am I to believe that dubb or Lathum are wolves again?
__________________
Just beat the devil out of it!!! - Bob Ross |
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06-01-2009, 04:12 PM | #1550 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Fort Wayne, Indiana
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Dubb "scanned" Lathum as a wolf. Since believed seer's scans are 100%, either Dubb is lieing (meaning he's a wolf) or Lathum's a wolf since he was scanned as one. I also think there is chance both are wolves and are trying to take heat off one or the other. So if Lathum is telling the truth that he's a villager, then Dubb is definitely a wolf. Even if Lathum is telling the truth, you have to consider there is a very real possibility that Lathum is a fake seer and that his scans are no good. If it's 6-5 at this point, then there's a 45.5% chance of a scan coming up as a wolf. If it's a 7-4 at this point, then there's still a 36.4% chance of a scan coming up as a wolf. |
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