WW Amazing Race - Game Over (Moles Win & Team Reebok Wins)

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

General question for the group - is there any reason at all that people should be more concerned about the "race" than the game of "werewolf". If not, I would be interested in having some discussion around actions so far this game pertaining to the race. Doing so might help me with my evaluation on my partner Chief, as well as help crystallize some voting decisions.

Personally, I don't think so. But then again, I'm biased since Zinto and I were the first ones eliminated, and I haven't been paying attention to it since then.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Dola - I'm willing to be pretty open about what our team has been doing (and we are in first) if others are willing to share some details as well. I'm hoping to evaluate relative performances and better understand why teams are in the position they are.

If there is some wolf reward for being in first in the race I have inadvertently been aiding and abetting the enemy.

I don't necessarily think this is happening, but I want to rule it out. In an abstract sense, I'm surprised to be alive with Chief Rum on Day 6 and could use some help convincing myself that this is a good thing (ie - we're both villagers and just haven't fallen atop wolf priorities so far).

I'll say, I'm torn here. I agree that there may be something to learn from the race portion - for instance what you suggest, the wolves would be more likely to keep their teammates alive (although their kills have been pretty obvious and clear so far, so that's another rationale).

I'm torn because I'd like to win the race ;-) And I do think revealing info on effort spent, and strategies, might skew the race.

That said I will say the only thing that I've regarded as a possible clue from my team (NTN and I), is that at one point NTN suggested using our aggression to aid another team. The reasoning being creating an alliance, and hoping the other team would help us. We didn't end up doing that, due to my wariness of why he might want to do it. But the team he suggested was Chief and Hoops. That's been part of why I've cast a wary eye on those two. If one turned out bad I would then question NTN. Other than that, I think we have been performing as I would expect given our strategy and effort and skills.

[JAG]

I don't mind sharing so long as my partner doesn't mind, I don't think the info will be all that earth-shattering though. Other than him being alive so late in the game and a D5 vote on Danny that at least three villagers participated in (I think I forgot to factor this in my post above as a negative FWIW), I'm not sure what evidence you're seeing that makes CR a good candidate for today though.

[Autumn]

And JAG, no, I didn't jump on a vote for you. You're certainly someone I'm considering but basically the only point of suspicion I have on you is that you've been quieter than I remember you as a villager. You usually have a small number of posts, but they are always packed with very concise analysis that is usually spot-on. When someone pointed out that you've been more under the radar, I nodded in agreement. But I've been busier than normal too, so it's not much to go on. I suppose the fact that the votes on you didn't go anywhere Day 1 is another point.

I'm mostly trying to look at the wolf decisions and decide whether I think they have a JAG/Hoops/Chief type member or if they are more under the radar folks. A wolf team of ntn/mckerney would be hard to catch, especially if we keep going after the more vocal folk. I was leaning towards less veteran players earlier in the game, when they didn't kill Lathum. But now knowing Mauboy was a wolf, I'm thinking that might have been a veteran move.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by JAG

I don't mind sharing so long as my partner doesn't mind, I don't think the info will be all that earth-shattering though. Other than him being alive so late in the game and a D5 vote on Danny that at least three villagers participated in (I think I forgot to factor this in my post above as a negative FWIW), I'm not sure what evidence you're seeing that makes CR a good candidate for today though.

I'm not sure Chief is who I would vote for today, but there's certainly more to vote on than that. He had several suspicious looking votes on Day 1, and moreover a lot of vote movement as Mauboy rose and fell among the vote total. Let's also not forget that Mauboy "scanned" him as part of his reveal. While I would expect a veteran wolf to scan someone who is good, most likely, I consider it very possible that Mauboy tried to "clear" a fellow wolf there.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Let me address these things. Number one, I haven't made a case for NTN at all, so I think you must be thinking of someone else. I don't see much in either direction for NTN, other than that we'd learn about the day 1 vote.

I'm not discounting the "best evidence" for Chief being a villager. We've already seen Martin put the 2nd or 3rd vote on Mauboy, so I don't know why Mauboy putting a vote on Chief should be evidence of anything. There is better evidence for Chief being a villager than that, including his last switch from NTN to Mauboy.

Lastly, as I explained at the time, I did not notice Mauboy's "I see the future" post at the time. If you go back you'll see that I asked Mauboy to give more information if he was going to hint at a role at the last minute. I was not inclined to vote my teammate just because Mauboy was making a last second desperation move. When Mauboy didn't give any more details I voted him. When Danny or somebody pointed out the seer comment I moved my vote. You can see all that back in the thread.

I don't remember what you said about Danny yesterday, but I voted Danny simply for my own reasons. I was getting an off vibe from him watching his posts over the last couple days. That combined with the fact that he had a questionable vote Day 1 was why I voted him. I was trying to go with my gut since there are a number of people with suspect votes and I'm really unsure where to go.

Well, I can't really go back and look, but I'll take your word re: ntn as it would be silly to lie about it and with the Mau reveal. Your post actually me feel a bit better about you as it seems like we see more eye-to-eye than I originally thought.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by JAG

I don't mind sharing so long as my partner doesn't mind, I don't think the info will be all that earth-shattering though. Other than him being alive so late in the game and a D5 vote on Danny that at least three villagers participated in (I think I forgot to factor this in my post above as a negative FWIW), I'm not sure what evidence you're seeing that makes CR a good candidate for today though.

Call it creeping paranoia that we are both alive on Day 6, when I've been fairly active defending him throughout.

I don't consider him my number one candidate by any means, but I'm increasingly interested in understanding our overall success when I don't think we've gone over-the-top with effort/aggression.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I'll say, I'm torn here. I agree that there may be something to learn from the race portion - for instance what you suggest, the wolves would be more likely to keep their teammates alive (although their kills have been pretty obvious and clear so far, so that's another rationale).

I'm torn because I'd like to win the race ;-) And I do think revealing info on effort spent, and strategies, might skew the race.

That said I will say the only thing that I've regarded as a possible clue from my team (NTN and I), is that at one point NTN suggested using our aggression to aid another team. The reasoning being creating an alliance, and hoping the other team would help us. We didn't end up doing that, due to my wariness of why he might want to do it. But the team he suggested was Chief and Hoops. That's been part of why I've cast a wary eye on those two. If one turned out bad I would then question NTN. Other than that, I think we have been performing as I would expect given our strategy and effort and skills.

I'm coming at this from the standpoint of the team who is winning the race. But if I've got my choice, I would rather win at werewolf than at the race. And I want to try and suss out if there is werewolf-type information to be learned from the race.

I think our team has as much, if not more, to lose in disclosing info on the racing stuff up to this point. We're giving you info on what we have left in the tank to hold our lead, which should allow other teams to better target us in terms of catching up.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I'm not sure Chief is who I would vote for today, but there's certainly more to vote on than that. He had several suspicious looking votes on Day 1, and moreover a lot of vote movement as Mauboy rose and fell among the vote total. Let's also not forget that Mauboy "scanned" him as part of his reveal. While I would expect a veteran wolf to scan someone who is good, most likely, I consider it very possible that Mauboy tried to "clear" a fellow wolf there.

I don't put much into the 'scan' as evidence since it was going to eventually come out that Mau was a wolf. With the wolves knowing they were going to be down two wolves early on, it would be really risky to try and "clear" one that would in the long run look suspicious, not to mention the real seer would probably give consideration to scanning him. If anything, I would think Chief as wolf would never sign off on a plan like that, so I could only buy that if youre willing to think Mau acted on his own.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by JAG

I don't put much into the 'scan' as evidence since it was going to eventually come out that Mau was a wolf. With the wolves knowing they were going to be down two wolves early on, it would be really risky to try and "clear" one that would in the long run look suspicious, not to mention the real seer would probably give consideration to scanning him. If anything, I would think Chief as wolf would never sign off on a plan like that, so I could only buy that if youre willing to think Mau acted on his own.

I think given mau's reveals, it's very easy to think that he was acting on his own. I'm quite sure a veteran wolf would have encouraged him to handle that situation differently, both the intitial reveal, and the later paparazzi reveal. Given the Martin error, Mauboy's sloppy reveal, I'm willing to believe he may have slipped up and tried to get heat off of Chief, who had also been in the race day one.

I think I will go back and look at day 1 from the view point of 2 (or 3) wolves being in the race. I know we always discount this thought, but in the Vegas game there were 5 wolves on the block out of 6 candidates day three, so it's certainly a possibility here.

I'm doing this especially hearing Hoop's thoughts, because I've harbored some suspicions about their success.

[JAG]

I have to do some work, will not be participating for a but but will try and follow along and chime in later.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'm coming at this from the standpoint of the team who is winning the race. But if I've got my choice, I would rather win at werewolf than at the race. And I want to try and suss out if there is werewolf-type information to be learned from the race.

I think our team has as much, if not more, to lose in disclosing info on the racing stuff up to this point. We're giving you info on what we have left in the tank to hold our lead, which should allow other teams to better target us in terms of catching up.

If you think there's any chance there's something unexplained there, I think we should have it out, as I've been wondering that. Is there a particular event you did better at than expected? Do you think we should reveal total effort spent? I am willing to spill some beans from our team, if we can figure out how to approach this.

[EagleFan]

Important for Friday!!!

I just realized that I will not be able to run the leg/lynch votes for Friday. I have two other commitments tomorrow night.

The options are....


1) I can set the deadline for Saturday.

2) I can move the deadline to Sunday night (same deadline times but on Sunday).

3) It can be skipped and we resume on Monday.

[hoopsguy]

I would think the most fair options, given how people aren't here on weekends are either to have the deadline at regular Friday time (and process it whenever you can) or extend it to Monday at same time.

[Chief Rum]

hoops doubts cut both ways, of course. He is wondering why I am still alive; I could certainly ask the same thing of him.

In any case, I am fine with revealing race stuff, if that helps clear up wolf influence in the race. The problem is, I have not seen any indication that there is a connection between the two in this game. I think all we will discover is that hoops and I hit on the right formula slightly better than some others, and managed to get the lead, and that now whatever way we're doing it will be out in the open, and we'll lose that advantage. Ergo, no advantage for us in WW, a disadvantage for us in the race.

But I agree with hoops that the WW is more improtant, and if that info puts people's minds at ease, I am all for it.

As for why we're still alive, I think I am still alive because I have been under constant scrutiny the whole game. The wolves no doubt believe the village will finally just lynch me. I couldn't tell you why hoops is alive--until yesterday, he had next to no heat on him. Maybe his busy schedule has kept him from being a threat the wolves are concerned about right now.

[Chief Rum]

Keep in mind, BTW, we're only up 5 minutes in the race currently. Not like we're coasting to victory here.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I would think the most fair options, given how people aren't here on weekends are either to have the deadline at regular Friday time (and process it whenever you can) or extend it to Monday at same time.

Shoot, that was going to be my 4th option that I forgot. Keep the deadlines as they are and I will process everything when I am able to (which would probably be sometime early AM on Saturday at the earliest 1-2 AM EST, in that area at the earliest I would guess).

[Passacaglia]

I'm fine with any option.

[EagleFan]

dola:

If everyone is okay with that option I will go with that. The deadlines would remain the same tomorrow but will be processed when I am back and available to.

If there is enough support for a weekend deadline I would do that, with Sunday as my preference (if people want to be around for a known time when the writeup will occur).

I wanted to give the option though, so there is a known deadline for people to check in for.

[Chief Rum]

I am fine with any option as well, but I think the best way is the unlisted fourth option hoops suggested and which you have here.

As for weekend play, I am personally fine with that, but I know most others aren't, so it's probably best to just go to Monday after Friday night's deadline.

[GoldenEagle]

I am fine with whatever.

[GoldenEagle]

If you put a gun to my head right now and asked me who the three wolves left are, I would guess JAG, Mckerney, and ntn. But that is just my opinion. JAG seems to be really taking up for those two.

[hoopsguy]

OK, here is the first info on aggression/effort.

Assuming I'm running the numbers correctly, we have 5 remaining points of aggression and have used less than 10 total points of effort between the two of us.

[Danny]

vote jag

I know my vote doesn't count, but this is where I would be going.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

OK, here is the first info on aggression/effort.

Assuming I'm running the numbers correctly, we have 5 remaining points of aggression and have used less than 10 total points of effort between the two of us.

Without going back to look at my PMs (I still have all of them), I believe that is correct. I think with the ones we used yesterday, I got us even, at maybe 12 or 13 left? Somewhere around there.

[Danny]

And with the argument I created for jag last night, I think there is very little chance a wolf doesn't piggback on that and vote him if jag was a villager.

[Danny]

I also think that focusing on the race results / happenings (which we know very little about mechanically) in terms of the werewolf portion would be a mistake and could be a wolf tactic to distract from other things.

[Chief Rum]

If I were more interested in being funny than surviving, I would vote JAG now.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

If you put a gun to my head right now and asked me who the three wolves left are, I would guess JAG, Mckerney, and ntn. But that is just my opinion. JAG seems to be really taking up for those two.

I won't argue the ntn thing as I put him up high in trust, but I'm taking up for mckerney, who I put 6th out of 9 players? That's misrepresenting what I posted. As for ntn, I've laid out my reasoning why I think he's ok, meanwhile you've voted him 3 of 5 days and I still don't understand what your case is against him. Can you please enlighten me?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by JAG

I won't argue the ntn thing as I put him up high in trust, but I'm taking up for mckerney, who I put 6th out of 9 players? That's misrepresenting what I posted. As for ntn, I've laid out my reasoning why I think he's ok, meanwhile you've voted him 3 of 5 days and I still don't understand what your case is against him. Can you please enlighten me?

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

If I were more interested in being funny than surviving, I would vote JAG now.

Yes but now that I've said that, its ok

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Danny

I also think that focusing on the race results / happenings (which we know very little about mechanically) in terms of the werewolf portion would be a mistake and could be a wolf tactic to distract from other things.

I'm just surprised that we've won (I think) three legs of this race, when they haven't all been tailor-made for our talents. We've planned well, but we haven't spent many points behind them.

I don't understand why other teams haven't been able to outperform us - I certainly don't think we have any uber-skills or great point distribution. It may end up being a distraction, but I'm not intending it as such.

[hoopsguy]

Gun to head right now, I think I would vote Passacaglia. If we were villager/villager/villager yesterday I just don't think we are going to end up winning this game. So I'm hoping there is something to pull from yesterday because trying to sift through Day 1 feels like a borderline futile exercise.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'm just surprised that we've won (I think) three legs of this race, when they haven't all been tailor-made for our talents. We've planned well, but we haven't spent many points behind them.

I don't understand why other teams haven't been able to outperform us - I certainly don't think we have any uber-skills or great point distribution. It may end up being a distraction, but I'm not intending it as such.

I'm really surprised to hear this. So you've spent 10 effort points between you and no aggression? So spending an average of 1 effort point each, each day? I can say that NTN and I have spent a great deal more than that. In addition we've been pretty darn well suited to almost all the Detours. So, yes, Hoops, color me surprised you're over an hour ahead of us.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'm just surprised that we've won (I think) three legs of this race, when they haven't all been tailor-made for our talents. We've planned well, but we haven't spent many points behind them.

I don't understand why other teams haven't been able to outperform us - I certainly don't think we have any uber-skills or great point distribution. It may end up being a distraction, but I'm not intending it as such.

I think ef said early in the game there was a random / dice component. You guys probably have rolled well. And I know from my teams standpoint we had really bad planning / skills for the challenges the first couple days, so maybe your success is also helped by not screwing up and having a bad day or two. Its just whatever the reason, I doubt it has much if anything to do with the ww component, and this coming from someone with a known wolf partner

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I'm really surprised to hear this. So you've spent 10 effort points between you and no aggression? So spending an average of 1 effort point each, each day? I can say that NTN and I have spent a great deal more than that. In addition we've been pretty darn well suited to almost all the Detours. So, yes, Hoops, color me surprised you're over an hour ahead of us.

I feel like we've put together good/clear instructions on what to do each day, and been careful to avoid any logistics issues (understand airports, try to identify other transportation challenges) but not to the point where we should have been doing this well.

Anyway, if there is a suspicion that we're slowing down the WW conversation by talking about this I'll let it go. And be very curious to see if there was some linkage when the post-game comes around.

[Autumn]

Hoops, did you and Chief ever discuss aiding or interfering with any other teams with your aggression points?

[Danny]

Yeah for all we know someone winning a leg or something unlocked the day kill, but we have no way of even having a marginally good idea if that is true. Better left for fun discussion in the end game than using it to try and catch wolves

[Chief Rum]

Autumn, it's more like 14-16 effort points between the two of us.

I don't know how much it matters, but we have also sent EF meticulous instructions for each day, with detailed travel plans and preparations for the roadblock/detour, using our best guesses as to what those competitions will end up being.

As an example of the level of instruction we have provided, I even had us buy traditional Islamic female outfits, with head and face cover, prior to leaving India yesterday, so that we wouldn't be waylaid by fundamentalist Muslims upset at not covering ourselves up. Of course, this all went to naught when hoops inevotably stripped down to her underwear.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Hoops, did you and Chief ever discuss aiding or interfering with any other teams with your aggression points?

Not hoops, but I am sure he'll back me upon this.

I think I was the only one who advocated using an aggression point, and it wasn't against another team, but in support of ourselves, a couple legs ago. hoops actually talked me out of it, saying we might need all of our points at the end.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Hoops, did you and Chief ever discuss aiding or interfering with any other teams with your aggression points?

No, not at any point in time has that come up.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

No, not at any point in time has that come up.

Actually, Chief is right that he talked about using one to support ourselves - but we have not once talked about trying to impact the performance of other teams.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Actually, Chief is right that he talked about using one to support ourselves - but we have not once talked about trying to impact the performance of other teams.

Yeah, actually, I must not have read the rules that close, because I didn't recall seeing you could use it on other teams and only realized it from what I read was happening to other teams in the rac ehere in thread. My pervasive impression of the aggression points has been that they are for our own use to aid us, not to hinder others.

[Danny]

In contrast to hoops, I provided as little instruction as possible the first couple days. It went like, fly here, I do this challenge, then mau does that challenge and then go here.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Danny

Yeah for all we know someone winning a leg or something unlocked the day kill, but we have no way of even having a marginally good idea if that is true. Better left for fun discussion in the end game than using it to try and catch wolves

I see your point, but also think it's another avenue where we can get hints and suspicions, just like from in-thread chatter. If someone's got a suspicion I think it's best to talk about it here.

[Danny]

I stand by what I said, if JAG was a villager I think its very likely a wolf would have piggied back on my arguments as a now trusted villager and made an early vote that way. Not vote came

[hoopsguy]

Well, I also 100% know that I can trust Danny's reasons for wanting to dismiss the data so I'm willing to follow that rather than ruminating on it more.

I think we're screwed six ways to Sunday if it is a quiet pack of wolves remaining, or even if 2 of the wolves are low key players. We're going to likely have some kind of a reckoning today between me/Chief/Autumn/JAG/Pass before the day is done. I just don't see it going another direction, so I hope that there is a wolf or two among this group.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Danny

And with the argument I created for jag last night, I think there is very little chance a wolf doesn't piggback on that and vote him if jag was a villager.

Can one piggyback on a vote that doesn't exist?

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Danny

vote jag

I know my vote doesn't count, but this is where I would be going.

Not to be a prick but please no more bolded votes from players that are out of the WW portion of the game but still in the race... Thank you.

I skip over anything not bolded when looking at the votes so it doesn't matter to me if you say it just don't bold it please.

(trying to keep it as easy on myself as possible when trying to recalculate the votes later)

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

If I were more interested in being funny than surviving, I would vote JAG now.

Sounds wolfish to me.