Werewolf LXXII: Chess (Checkmate!)

[Narcizo]

Only fooling with you heinzy.

I'm making the point that assumptions can be dangerous. I'm assuming that there are two white wolves left. I'm assuming that Anxiety was telling the truth when he told Qwik that he was targeting PB or me. I'm assuming that Qwik was telling the truth about cronin not being a wolf. I'm assuming that Jackal and Render can't both be wolves and I'm assuming that a pawn wouldn't vote for a fellow wolf on day one.

Although, I have to admit, that once I began typing it up it started to make more sense to me. And I'm one to talk, I've been making a lot of (pretty big) assumptions of my own throughout the game. As Heinz can testify.

[Narcizo]

Sonic, see if you can help me out here. Let's face it, your side has lost so there's no reason for you to help me. Just depends if you want to potentially help find a wolf or not.

I've been rereading. Looking at the way the day developed on day two I'm assuming (see! I'm doing it again) KWhit thought he was white (I know that was the assumption I was drawing at the time - judging by the way he backed off of cronin and moved lynch Chief Rum). For that to be the case I can assume that all the pawns moved forward on day one (otherwise you would have noticed that there was a rook missing - hoops). Do you have the records of the knights' moves and do you want share them? As you're controlling 4 pawns (I think, spread across the board - I'm not going to bother explaining why I think that - a lot of evidence points that way), you should have a pretty good idea of black movement in the first three moves or so. I'm not asking for you to reveal pawn movement - just knight movement. Can't say that I blame you if you don't want to do it though.

[Neon_Chaos]

When the white pawns are night-killed, the wolves will most likely win.

[Narcizo]

Barring white finding the wolves I was thinking that as well, but having reread the rules (I can't believe I missed it) I don't necessarily think that's the case. I think we actually have a decent shot at capturing you even with two wolves around. It would be much more preferable if we could find the wolves though.

[Narcizo]

While I'm waiting for Sonic. You see I'm at a loss here. I believed that voting off Sonic was the way forward today but I've also been believing that cronin was a wolf. (I'll go into that later) So when cronin says that the way for us to win is to vote off Sonic and try to win the game on the board I naturally feel like there's a catch.

But I'm not sure there is. My current assumption is that the run of events will be
Lynch Sonic - Night Kill Me/Heinz/Mccollins (you either want to take out the bodyguard or the person who owns the most pawns, discovered by PB's reveal of his piece's position).
Lynch OlieGirl - Night Kill one of the rooks or one of the pawns.
So that leaves us with either a bishop or a knight (judging from the way Jackal has been playing off of cronin over the weekend I'm guessing Render is the villager there, but I'm not sure of that) and a combination of 1 or 2 rooks and whatever pawns that have made it past Neon and haven't been night killed. I think the pawns are the natural target for cronin (which is why he mentioned the wolves killing the rooks). So we probably have two rooks and a bishop trying to capture Neon. Let's be generous to Heinz/me and say that we finally manage a block. Then we have a queen or two, two rooks and a bishop trying to capture Neon. If we can line up the two rooks-rook/queen combo, then we sweep across. Assuming the two rooks are able to get in a position to do that. I think we have an ok shot at hitting Neon but it isn't great to be honest.

If Heinz or I haven't managed to get a block by this stage then I personally think cronin gets cold feet at this stage and allows Jackal to "convince" him that it's better to lynch Render than follow through the plan. Now, hopefully, that option is closed to him. However there is another option. What if OlieGirl turns out to be a wolf? Well, then you lynch Render because there must only be four wolves in play. Night kill, lynch Jackal and cronin wins the game. If that's what's happening here then I've stopped that from happening now as well.

Now you're all probably thinking I'm a wolf (even you Heinz). I can understand that. Cronin has stated that anyone not following his plan is a wolf, I've come in babbled some rubbish about not making any assumptions, waited for hours (I've been working for most of it, but I have been thinking about the situation as well) and then come out with this. I'd find it suspicious. But if you're set on cronin's plan then you'd better hope that I'm not a wolf because your chances of success decrease dramatically (depending on which of heinz or I is the wolf bodyguard).

Say neither cronin nor I are wolves. I don't know cronin is a wolf, I think there's a decent amount of stuff pointing to him being a wolf I'm not sure. Unless Jackal and RendeR are the wolves (I don't think it's likely) that means one of the pawns or Heinz is a wolf and our chances are nearly as bad as if I'm a wolf. So the best chance of this succeding is if cronin is the wolf.

So do you lynch me for pointing all this out in suspicious circumstances? Maybe. Can't say I blame you. Given my analysis of how events are going to work out (feel free to correct me if you find a flaw in it) it seems my best bet as a wolf under the circumstances would be to keep quiet. But I would say that. You know, I've displayed a degree of cunning as a wolf in one game (the one where I didn't nearly lose the game or die on the first day). So you've probably lost. Do you believe me when I say cronin is a wolf? Probably not. I don't know he's a wolf and if I'm not sure then why would you believe me? Or you vote to lynch Render running the risk that you lose control of the board to the black pieces if Jackal is the wolf (which I get a vibe is the case)?

So. There I am. Pointing out that cronin's plan isn't quite the slam dunk Jackal and he are purporting it to be.

[Neon_Chaos]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Barring white finding the wolves I was thinking that as well, but having reread the rules (I can't believe I missed it) I don't necessarily think that's the case. I think we actually have a decent shot at capturing you even with two wolves around. It would be much more preferable if we could find the wolves though.

Without the pawns, no. They are essential to white winning. Without the pawns, it would be quite impossible for white to win, specially if the wolves can manipulate two pieces on their own.

Now... if the pawns were wolves... that would be ridiculously funny.

[Narcizo]

So I'm surprised at the lack of discussion of Qwik's reveal, his subsequent actions and his death. I've been trying to make head or tail of it myself but there's something decidedly wrong with it. Last turn my assumption was that Qwik was a wolf as it seemed to be the only explanation for the whole situation.

In summing up Qwik reveals just after a lynch that sees two villagers killed that he's scanned Anxiety as a wolf on night two. Night two saw the Black Queen get lynched by white pieces so it's understandable that he's pissed off at white at the time. However he hangs onto the information until after a black villager and a piece of undecided allegiance (white as it happens, although he couldn't know that, NTN dukes to another black piece) are voted off. His argument is a bit muddled but it seems to be that he knew that Anxiety was protecting Lathum so he presumed Lathum was a wolf. He was planning on shifting his vote from clap to Lathum at the last moment to lynch him. Instead of just outing Anxiety there and then and ensuring a known wolf was lynched instead of a black piece which might have been a wolf or not. It just seems bizarre.

Originally Posted by Qwikshot

I was trying to kill the queen...but of course, that already occurred.

Correction, I didn't state Anx was the last wolf, just that he was one.

St. Cronin is not a wolf.

I would expect some protection..

As for why I voted clap...I was trying to go along with Anx's play but I was going to change my vote at the last minute, then the page dumped and I had to rush and do my reveal as I thought I was as good as dead with my jump...

For the record, I think Lathum and Olliegirl are wolves...but I cannot prove this.

This just seemed so contrived to me. How could Qwik possibly think he had a shot at taking Path - who could see him coming. If I could see a knight had a clear path to attack me then I'd move out phase one. (as path said he did, as it turns out). And, as QWik pointed out, he was leaving himself open to a terrible risk that he would be captured by a white piece. If I saw the white queen out in the open like that, within range of me and a possible black piece then I think I'd take the shot at moving to the queen's square on phase 8. Why would Qwik take that huge risk? He claims he thought he could be attacked but if the wolves are giving him information, judging from what I know of the board (and therefore what they must have known), he might know that he couldn't be attacked on that square.

My presumption has been that Anxiety convinced Qwik that Black didn't have a chance and he might as well take a shot at helping the wolves. Neon's as good as said that's the way he reads it. So the plan would be for Qwik to get to d4 to be able to scan cronin as good. Cronin was probably accumulating the most suspicion of all the white pieces and the wolves probably judged that he would be the prime lynch target among the white pieces.

Cronin had been very quick to both dish out trust and suspicion. The one that particularly struck me was that the white queen must be a wolf because it blocked Cronin's path to be scanned by Jackal. That but the white queen was on d4 turn 2/3. The alleged block happend on turn 2/3. Reading things correctly cronin started on c1.

Meanwhile Anxiety mentions that he's the "last wolf". That makes me really suspicious. But of course Anxiety might be playing games with us. But I can't understand why Anxiety doesn't put any sort of argument, he meekly goes along with being outed. He could at least counter it for a day and delay things that way. Maybe his message is that he's the last wolf and that Qwik is to be believed. He also mentioned that he wanted to cc Qwik along with the wolves. So that seems to mean that Anxiety was happy for Qwik to know who the wolves were. Why would Qwik have to pretend he was going to scan people?

Writing this all down has pretty much cleared this up for me though. I think I've made a massive mistake and possibly cost the white village the win. I've been mixing what Anxiety says and what Qwik says in my head and I became obsessed that cronin is a wolf and it's blinkered me and I've just adjusted my world view and all the facts so that cronin is the wolf. First Qwik must be a wolf and that means cronin must be the wolf. Then when it becomes clear that Qwik isn't the wolf, he must be a villager who wants the wolves to win. So when cronin starts saying that we have to do what he says and anyone not doing what he says must be a wolf (something I myself have done) I assume that there must be a catch. When he starts saying that the wolves will be targeting the rooks (when the pawns are the correct target in my opinion) it makes me think that this is all a plan of his. Anyway by now no one will believe me and the wolves are having a great laugh at me.

But the thing is, I think my analysis of the situation is correct. I don't think we stand a great chance of catching Neon. And if cronin is a villager as I'm trying to convince myself is the case and I'm a villager, which I know, means the plan doesn't have a great deal of chance of success. Unless the whole "last black wolf" thing was actually an attempt to cover OlieGirl (I don't think Sonic Youth - because he, like mccollins, had a four vote bloc out on Hoops on day one, with even less chance because he knew he wouldn't be able to change it around deadline).

So, in summing up. I've made a pig's ear of this.

[The Jackal]

I don't think cronin's plan is a slam dunk, I never like assuming things are going to fall a certain way when wolves are involved.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Cronin had been very quick to both dish out trust and suspicion. The one that particularly struck me was that the white queen must be a wolf because it blocked Cronin's path to be scanned by Jackal. That but the white queen was on d4 turn 2/3. The alleged block happend on turn 2/3. Reading things correctly cronin started on c1.

Sorry, didn't finish that off. For the queen to have blocked him Path must have been on d2 or e3 on that turn. Now the only way he could block him was if cronin didn't move phase 8 and I just couldn't see the sense of it if cronin genuinely wanted to get within scan-range of Jackal. Cronin must know that there's a chance that the queen would block him so the only way to avoid that happening would be to move phase 8 himself. And then accusing the Queen of blocking him just seemed ridiculous.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I don't think cronin's plan is a slam dunk, I never like assuming things are going to fall a certain way when wolves are involved.

Originally Posted by The Jackal

and with the likely possibility of one or more of our pawns reaching the other side and changing into queens, I think this game might be in the bag.

I realise I have 0 credibility now but that pretty much seems to be exactly what you're saying.

[PurdueBrad]

Yeah, but for our pawns to change, they have to avoid night lynches by the wolves. I assume that the pawns make the most likely night targets because of voting power and the ability to become a stronger player.

[jeheinz72]

Ok, just got in and gave everything a once-through. For now, until I dig a little deeper into it

Vote Sonic Youth

I still have some questions about this plan but let's get it straight where I'm coming from.

[mccollins]

Vote count?

I may go with "the plan", but I think it's pretty obnoxious for Cronin to say "My idea is the best idea; no one can have ideas as good as me; if you don't agree with me then you're a wolf."

[Passacaglia]

Here's what I have:

RendeR --
oliegirl --
Sonic Youth -- st.cronin (1415), PurdueBrad (1419), ntndeacon (1437), The Jackal (1444), jeheinz72 (1462)
st.cronin -- Sonic Youth (1421), Neon_Chaos (1435)

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by mccollins

Vote count?

I may go with "the plan", but I think it's pretty obnoxious for Cronin to say "My idea is the best idea; no one can have ideas as good as me; if you don't agree with me then you're a wolf."

Yeah, that statement put me off as well. Like independent thought ='s wolf now? Frankly, had Cronin not been cleared by a known villager-seer I'd have voted for him on that statement in a heartbeat.

I'm still vetting the idea though. My main concern at this point is that, while we trade black lynch for white night kill, we leave white pieces who aren't going to actually help us get Neon. I mean it's a given here that one of Jackal/Render is a wolf. Whichever piece that is, isn't going to actively hunt down Neon. In fact, the opposite is true, they could actually put their piece *in the way* of me as a rook if I've got Neon lined up.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Sorry, didn't finish that off. For the queen to have blocked him Path must have been on d2 or e3 on that turn. Now the only way he could block him was if cronin didn't move phase 8 and I just couldn't see the sense of it if cronin genuinely wanted to get within scan-range of Jackal. Cronin must know that there's a chance that the queen would block him so the only way to avoid that happening would be to move phase 8 himself. And then accusing the Queen of blocking him just seemed ridiculous.

I moved phase 2. I knew where path was, and tried to clue him to move phase 1, but he didn't - I don't know why he didn't. The reason I needed to move early was because The Jackal had explicitly said he wasn't going to wait around for me to move, he was going to try to scan me, and move himself, but that he wasn't willing to coordinate.

Anyway, I think the wolves are Narcizo and RendeR.

[mccollins]

Cronin wants to remove a black team member. That is good for us, but I'd still like to remove a wolf.

With the assumption that Jackal is a villager (a tenuous assumption) and RendeR is indeed a wolf (a white bishop makes sense, but is still assuming Jackal is telling the truth), here is a vote count that would remove both from the game:

RendeR (6) -- McCollins, PurdueBrad
Sonic Youth (6) -- st.cronin, ntndeacon, The Jackal, jeheinz72, Narcizo, RendeR
st.cronin (5) -- Sonic Youth, Neon_Chaos

As Cronin already mentioned, this requires a lot of moving (and untrustworthy) pieces to remain in place so I don't know that we can make it work. But it's another plan for Cronin to shoot down as inferior to his incredible intelligence.

[Narcizo]

I think we should vote Render. If Render isn't a wolf then Jackal must be one. Then the worst case scenario is that mccollins is night killed or is a wolf. If that doesn't happen, then white still have the voting power. If he is a wolf (or he's night killed and PB is bad) then he will have to out himself to vote alongside the blacks to save Jackal. If he does that then black will never let him live. Probably the black side will win. But the wolves certainly won't. They will have revealed themselves to the black side as much as the white side. They need to stay hidden. I'm also pretty sure we can capture a black pawn this turn, cutting down the black side to 5. If Render is bad then we know that Jackal is good and he can scan someone else and we have a better chance of landing another wolf.

I say we vote Render.

Vote Render

See. Think it through.

See

[Narcizo]

A DOLAed "see"

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Frankly, had Cronin not been cleared by a known villager-seer I'd have voted for him on that statement in a heartbeat.

Ditto and I've had to re-check the fack that Qwik was a villager and that he said Cronin was not a wolf multiple times to believe this. It's still hard for me to believe after his tone.

[mccollins]

Narcizo, I've got to say that after you've written multiple books for us to read and be confused by this morning, you're leaning towards wolf.

With you voting for RendeR, it makes me wonder if Jackal is actually the wolf and not RendeR.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by mccollins

Cronin wants to remove a black team member. That is good for us, but I'd still like to remove a wolf.

With the assumption that Jackal is a villager (a tenuous assumption) and RendeR is indeed a wolf (a white bishop makes sense, but is still assuming Jackal is telling the truth), here is a vote count that would remove both from the game:

RendeR (6) -- McCollins, PurdueBrad
Sonic Youth (6) -- st.cronin, ntndeacon, The Jackal, jeheinz72, Narcizo, RendeR
st.cronin (5) -- Sonic Youth, Neon_Chaos

As Cronin already mentioned, this requires a lot of moving (and untrustworthy) pieces to remain in place so I don't know that we can make it work. But it's another plan for Cronin to shoot down as inferior to his incredible intelligence.

This is a terrible idea. We know that ONE of Render and Jackal are wolves, but its a coin flip which one is a wolf. We can't take the chance of voting off a white villager.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by mccollins

Cronin wants to remove a black team member. That is good for us, but I'd still like to remove a wolf.

With the assumption that Jackal is a villager (a tenuous assumption) and RendeR is indeed a wolf (a white bishop makes sense, but is still assuming Jackal is telling the truth), here is a vote count that would remove both from the game:

RendeR (6) -- McCollins, PurdueBrad
Sonic Youth (6) -- st.cronin, ntndeacon, The Jackal, jeheinz72, Narcizo, RendeR
st.cronin (5) -- Sonic Youth, Neon_Chaos

As Cronin already mentioned, this requires a lot of moving (and untrustworthy) pieces to remain in place so I don't know that we can make it work. But it's another plan for Cronin to shoot down as inferior to his incredible intelligence.

Though I think it may be near impossible to make happen, I'd be ok with the plan of getting rid of both of them. It's a win-win, we take from the wolves and the black.

Worst-case, Jackal is lying, we still moved forward on our primary goal of mating Neon and now we know at least one piece that isn't/wasn't going to help us in that goal anyhow.

[mccollins]

Good Rook(s): I'll go ahead and beg for a bodyguard now.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by mccollins

Good Rook(s): I'll go ahead and beg for a bodyguard now.

I don't think my protecting you on the board would do all that much, or as much.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by mccollins

Cronin wants to remove a black team member. That is good for us, but I'd still like to remove a wolf.

With the assumption that Jackal is a villager (a tenuous assumption) and RendeR is indeed a wolf (a white bishop makes sense, but is still assuming Jackal is telling the truth), here is a vote count that would remove both from the game:

RendeR (6) -- McCollins, PurdueBrad
Sonic Youth (6) -- st.cronin, ntndeacon, The Jackal, jeheinz72, Narcizo, RendeR
st.cronin (5) -- Sonic Youth, Neon_Chaos

As Cronin already mentioned, this requires a lot of moving (and untrustworthy) pieces to remain in place so I don't know that we can make it work. But it's another plan for Cronin to shoot down as inferior to his incredible intelligence.

Problem here is that wouldn't SY vote for Render out of self-defense? Or wouldn't Neon move to RendeR to keep a black piece from being voted off?

[mccollins]

Then I guess I'm talking to the other kind:

For each color, one Rook will be able to protect against an attack on the board, and one Rook will be able to protect against a wolf attack.

I don't know what kind Oliegirl is and if Narcizo happens to be a wolf, that doesn't help either.

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Problem here is that wouldn't SY vote for Render out of self-defense? Or wouldn't Neon move to RendeR to keep a black piece from being voted off?

Yeah, it's too hard to manage.

[oliegirl]

I am SO confused by this game! There is a lot more chess in it than I thought there would be...trying to keep up the best I can. Does anyone have a confirmed board they can put up with everyone's locations just so I can make sure I'm on the same page as everyone else before I cast my vote or put in my move order?

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I realise I have 0 credibility now but that pretty much seems to be exactly what you're saying.

It looks like it -should- be in the bag, but no way it's a slam dunk. His plan -looks- good, but I don't know for sure it's going to win us the game. I'd certainly be willing to switch back to RendeR, I'd rather take a wolf off.

[mccollins]

Updated:

RendeR -- Narcizo (1468)
Sonic Youth -- st.cronin (1415), PurdueBrad (1419), ntndeacon (1437), The Jackal (1444), jeheinz72 (1462)
st.cronin -- Sonic Youth (1421), Neon_Chaos (1435)

[mccollins]

Left to vote: mccollins, oliegirl

[mccollins]

Vote Sonic Youth

[jeheinz72]

I think it's our only sensical move Collins, even if I abhor it's presentation and I'm not 100% sure Cronin's estimation for end-game is correct.

[Narcizo]

Ok if the majority want it then I won't split the vote.

Unvote Render
Vote Sonic Youth

Orders submitted.

[jeheinz72]

I'm almost friggin certain my partner is playing this right out of the How To Be a Wolf playbook.

No offense there pard.

[oliegirl]

VOTE SONIC YOUTH

[mccollins]

Updated:

Sonic Youth -- st.cronin (1415), PurdueBrad (1419), ntndeacon (1437), The Jackal (1444), jeheinz72 (1462), mccollins (1483), Narcizo (1485), oliegirl (1487)
st.cronin -- Sonic Youth (1421), Neon_Chaos (1435)

[jeheinz72]

RendeR hasn't voted, correct?

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

RendeR hasn't voted, correct?

According to Pass's vote count and my updates thereof, that looks like a No. I didn't notice that.

[RendeR]

I've been waiting to see how everything played out.

Jackal is lying through his fangs. I am not a wolf. Since it appears there is no fool role that means he's literally lying to move suspicion onto me (someone most players would readily vote for)

It goes hand in hand with his casting doubt on Cronin's plan. At this point White has this game won unless we screw up and start killing whilte players off.

Sonic is already set, I'm voting what I know to be the right thing for tomorrow, today.

VOTE THE JACKAL

[Passacaglia]

Corrections, please:

RendeR --
oliegirl --
Sonic Youth -- st.cronin (1415), PurdueBrad (1419), ntndeacon (1437), The Jackal (1444), jeheinz72 (1462), mccollins (1483), Narcizo (1485), oliegirl (1487)
st.cronin -- Sonic Youth (1421), Neon_Chaos (1435)
The Jackal -- RendeR (1491)

[mccollins]

I think that's correct Pass.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by RendeR

I've been waiting to see how everything played out.

Jackal is lying through his fangs. I am not a wolf. Since it appears there is no fool role that means he's literally lying to move suspicion onto me (someone most players would readily vote for)

It goes hand in hand with his casting doubt on Cronin's plan. At this point White has this game won unless we screw up and start killing whilte players off.

Sonic is already set, I'm voting what I know to be the right thing for tomorrow, today.

VOTE THE JACKAL

I'm not a wolf. All I have is my scan result of you, which says you are a wolf. I haven't been trying to move suspicion on to you, I just gave people the facts, and if we didn't have an overwhelming piece advantage right now we'd be lynching you. It's not up to me what the team does tomorrow - you, or olie. Either way is fine with me, at this point.

[RendeR]

*sniff sniff* Jackal....You stink....




of WOLF.

[Passacaglia]

The unity between Black and White appears to have dissipated, as White brazenly suggests that they lynch a Black piece, not because he could be a wolf, but simply as a way to use the wolf threat for their own gain. Sonic Youth is tied up and hung. Sonic Youth controlled four Black Pawns, and was a villager! You hear a few scuffles, and the sound of a rather loud battle, but wake up to see no battle causualties. Instead, you find the mangled corpse of st.cronin, eaten by wolves. st.cronin was a White Bishop!

[jeheinz72]

Well that was about as expected.

[RendeR]

Wow, guess Cronin's plan really hit close to home for some wolves....


VOTE THE JACKAL

He's a wolf, no other reason for him to lie about his scan.

[st.cronin]

Heinz,

My presentation rubbed you the wrong way, for which I apologize. I am simply trying to win the game, and doing my best to mount a persuasive argument.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Wow, guess Cronin's plan really hit close to home for some wolves....


VOTE THE JACKAL

He's a wolf, no other reason for him to lie about his scan.

Is that really the most important issue at hand?