Werewolf XXVI: The Thing - GAME OVER! THINGS WIN!!!

[Barkeep49]

Hoops I am feeling a good amount of despiar, but wanted to get some sort of discussion going.

He's been quiet has several votes on him already, which he has just laughed the shit off. You know how I feel about people fucking laughing off votes.

I have no problem with your Jeeber vote either.

[path12]

I'm OK with either direction for now, but I'm more than willing to change this vote as discussion develops:

VOTE JEEBER

I thought he was a likely conversion after his first test, and the fact that he's been able to stay out of the spotlight since then hasn't swayed me otherwise.

[Barkeep49]

Off for most of the day. Will be back for a bit and then out until after lynch.

[hoopsguy]

OK, so I'm trying to get inside the head of the wolves and figure out who I would target for each of the nights. I'm assuming that Qwik and Saldana were the starting wolves. Also, I'm not listing people that history has shown were not converted on a given Day (for example Dubb on Night 1, since he was cleared by blood test on Day 2).

Night 1 Thought Process:
Jeebs was tested that day, without any other info out there he is a good candidate to be guarded. Barkeep has indicated he has an assassin role, but does he suspect a Thing? Odds say he doesn't. There is a group of players who have indicated they are common villagers - some good conversion targets in there (Blade, Hoops, Swaggs) but some risk that they will be guarded on Night 1 if the bodyguard doesn't just guard himself. Ideally, convert someone with a role.

Best Night 1 Targets:
Jeebs, Blade, Hoops, or UTR (hoping for special role)

Night 2 Thought Process:
Down to one Thing at this point, need to get a conversion. Don't know any special roles at this point except Barkeep (who just killed one of our members). Need to make sure that convert target is not guarded, is unlikely to be linked to Thing. Getting a special role is an added bonus, but not the driver. Dubb was cleared on this day.

Best Night 2 Targets:
WVUFAN (missed votes, get him or replacement player), Tanglewood (time zone challenges make him terrific UTR bad guy), Anxiety (first-time players generally get longer leash, has not called attention to himself yet)

Night 3 Thought Process:
Game opens up a little here, with knowledge of the seer. He is likely to be guarded on this night, which means that you can take your shot at another player. Best choice depends partly on team makeup at this point, but ideal is to build numbers and avoid linkage between players. Preferably with people that CW is unlikely to scan the next night or two. I think they stay lower profile here and hope to catch a special role. Cleared people not named Coffee Warlord become targets as well (Jeebs, Dubb, Raiders). Finally, if someone has generated heat on the wolves at this point it might make sense to convert them.

Best Night 3 Targets:
Could be just about anyone - if they want to try and control the message go after either Barkeep, Blade, or me. But none of us are likely to have a role that benefits them by removing danger. And all of us are more likely to be scanned than an UTR player.


Path, this is why I wasn't really endorsing the idea of trying to find the Night 3 convert (even though we ended up on the same vote). I think this is the hardest one to predict, since we have no real idea who the first to converts were. If I knew it was Player A and Player B then I would feel better about guessing who they converted. But without that knowledge, you are suggesting we look for the person who has the fewest posts as a Thing. That seems counter-intuitive to me.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Night 3 Thought Process:
Game opens up a little here, with knowledge of the seer. He is likely to be guarded on this night, which means that you can take your shot at another player. Best choice depends partly on team makeup at this point, but ideal is to build numbers and avoid linkage between players. Preferably with people that CW is unlikely to scan the next night or two. I think they stay lower profile here and hope to catch a special role. Cleared people not named Coffee Warlord become targets as well (Jeebs, Dubb, Raiders). Finally, if someone has generated heat on the wolves at this point it might make sense to convert them.

Forgot yourself in there.

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Best Night 3 Targets:
Could be just about anyone - if they want to try and control the message go after either Barkeep, Blade, or me. But none of us are likely to have a role that benefits them by removing danger. And all of us are more likely to be scanned than an UTR player.

Actually, I think whoever's been cleared (Jeebs, Dubb, you and me) were the best targets Night 3. If I were them, I would think that the scientists would not have the tendency to waste another scan on any of the cleared scientists since I would think that the scientists would still be gunning for an original Thing. I think that of all four of us, I would've converted you that night. Me being one of them narrows it down to three.

What's interesting today is that Blade has totally escaped yet again without getting cleared. It seems if that he does this a lot. He's under the gun, finds a way to escape the vote and then everyone forgets about him.

[hoopsguy]

Raiders, point taken. I did try to throw my own name into the analysis in the interests of fairness even though I have the advantage of knowing that I'm not a Thing.

The Day 3 scan is the one that is the hardest for me to try and forecast, but I certainly think that going back for a cleared person is a decent option. But of those individuals, I think Jeebs is the least likely to be re-scanned as I don't think he has ever played the role of "wolf mastermind" like the other people in that list and is thus a little less likely to be picked for re-scan.

The last thing that the Things want is to pluck someone and have them get tested/viewed during the next 24 hour cycle. Although they are on a good role right now, if we someone got one today and have a chance to double-up it puts them under a lot of pressure once again.

[hoopsguy]

OK, we are about 4.5 hours away from deadline (after having basically 80 hours for this Day cycle) and we have had less than ten posts today. I know the weekends are slow, but today has been a little ridiculous.

Silence = huge edge to the Things.

[Raiders Army]

Yeah. I'm going off Jeebs and going to Blade. I have an overwhelming need to see if he's on the level.

UNVOTE JEEBERD
VOTE BLADE

I'll switch my vote if it looks as if it's not going to make a difference.

[hoopsguy]

Votes as of Post #1458:

Barkeep - Anxiety (1331)
Anxiety - WVUFAN (1365), Dubb (1427), Barkeep (1448)
Raiders Army - Blade (1406)
Jeeber - Hoopsguy (1450), Path (1452)
Dubb - Coffee (1437)
Blade - Raiders (1458)

Not voted: Jeeber, Cronin, mckerney, Swaggs, Tanglewood

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Silence = huge edge to the Things.

Why?


-Anxiety

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Anxiety

Why?


-Anxiety

Because it gives us insight to pick apart and find holes in. It lets us know what a person's thinking, especially important in thie game where some people will change how they're thinking. It allows us to work collectively to cultivate the best ideas and cull the weaker ones.

[Barkeep49]

Great analysis hoops about the nightly converts. I had been thinkin about that myself but not on paper and not in such an organized matter.

Going to Night 1:
Converting an UTR hoping for a role would seem to be awfully close to the list of six I originally compiled. Makes me think that Anxiety would be a good choice then for a possible convert and adds a reason to vote for him.

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Path, this is why I wasn't really endorsing the idea of trying to find the Night 3 convert (even though we ended up on the same vote). I think this is the hardest one to predict, since we have no real idea who the first to converts were. If I knew it was Player A and Player B then I would feel better about guessing who they converted. But without that knowledge, you are suggesting we look for the person who has the fewest posts as a Thing. That seems counter-intuitive to me.

I hear what you're saying, and I was hoping to generate some discussion about the point when I made it, but it doesn't look like that's in the cards today -- weird to be so slow today when the game has been pretty damn interesting up to now. I guess most people are as confused as I am.

But anyway, the main reason I was looking at a focus on the last convert was because it seemed kind of futile to go by the usual method of voting records. I thought if we collectively could try and develop a consensus of where the things might have gone last night we could find some profitable leads.

But it doesn't look to be in the cards right now. This silence makes me nervous.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by path12

I hear what you're saying, and I was hoping to generate some discussion about the point when I made it, but it doesn't look like that's in the cards today -- weird to be so slow today when the game has been pretty damn interesting up to now. I guess most people are as confused as I am.

But anyway, the main reason I was looking at a focus on the last convert was because it seemed kind of futile to go by the usual method of voting records. I thought if we collectively could try and develop a consensus of where the things might have gone last night we could find some profitable leads.

But it doesn't look to be in the cards right now. This silence makes me nervous.

I think there's some soundness to this idea. The problem is, as we've seen, that it suggests a lot of people for last night. And likely will do the same for tonight.

[Swaggs]

I have kind of been in and out (and will continue to be for the rest of) today. I still have no great leads. I have been looking at JeeberD for the past few days, just based on his lack of posting and the fact that he was cleared early. I am also looking at WVU Fan (had one day of making odd posts and then disappeared), hoopsguy (he's been very involved in this game, but stayed strangely under the radar), and am also keeping Blade in the back of my mind. The day we voted for CW, it seemed as if the momentum was basically a CW/RA block versus a Blade/Dubb block. Dubb was cleared, but Blade kind of fell into the background.

I am going to go ahead and vote now, but I will try to be back before the deadline, in case things are close.

Vote JeeberD

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Dubb was cleared, but Blade kind of fell into the background.

I am going to go ahead and vote now, but I will try to be back before the deadline, in case things are close.

Vote JeeberD

When was dubb cleared? The vote cleared CW, and by result RA...that night CW scanned cronin....just checking, as if not you just got a little linked to dubb with a subtle attempt to make people assume hes clear.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

Actually, I think whoever's been cleared (Jeebs, Dubb, you and me) were the best targets Night 3. If I were them, I would think that the scientists would not have the tendency to waste another scan on any of the cleared scientists since I would think that the scientists would still be gunning for an original Thing. I think that of all four of us, I would've converted you that night. Me being one of them narrows it down to three.

I love how we have the exact same ideas on conversion lasgt night yet have votes on each other

Originally Posted by Blade6119

To be fair, that was a joke...and im making my vote off of who i would have converted last night working under the assumption he was clean yesterday

UNVOTE SWAGGS
VOTE RAIDERS ARMY

It wont get support, but i wanted to make my feelings known

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Quite Possible...but im trying to think of the things...and discounting a person because they were recently cleared is exactly the person id go after. Not one other person has mentioned RA since the vote results yesterday...just saying, hes no longer cleared and as i expected no longer a suspect.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

When was dubb cleared? The vote cleared CW, and by result RA...that night CW scanned cronin....just checking, as if not you just got a little linked to dubb with a subtle attempt to make people assume hes clear.

CW revealed that he had scanned Dubb the night before and then CW was cleared that night, thus clearing Dubb for that day. That pretty much ended the accusations that you and Dubb were tied together. Nothing subtle about it.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

CW revealed that he had scanned Dubb the night before and then CW was cleared that night, thus clearing Dubb for that day. That pretty much ended the accusations that you and Dubb were tied together. Nothing subtle about it.

Night 1 was hoops, night 2 was ra, night three was cronin....where is dubb is that list of scannings?

[Swaggs]

I got it from one of the summary posts. Give me a second and I will link it.

[Raiders Army]

I'm hoping something happens soon. In about 30 minutes, I'm out until after the vote is over.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Repost of the above list, with slight modification to distinguish between seer scans and blood tests:

1. JeeberD - clean blood test day 1
2. st.cronin
3. tanglewood
4. Raiders Army - clean day 2, per CW
5. Blade6119
6. dubb93 - clean blood test day 2
7. Swaggs
8. path12
9. saldana - Thing, killed day 2
10. Qwikshot - presumed Thing, killed day 1
11. Barkeep - presuman human assassin day 1
12. mckerney
13. Coffee Warlord - seer, cleared day 3
14. Anxiety
15. hoopsguy - cleared day 1, per CW
16. WVUFAN

I guess it was a blood test the day before and I misread the post.

I thought we established at some point that Dubb was a simple scientist sometime along the way, though.

[Swaggs]

I don't have time to read through right now and identify what made me think that, because I'm heading out for dinner. I guess that brings Blade and Dubb back together as a group that were somewhat under fire and then dropped out of sight after things swung towards CW.

[Raiders Army]

We did establish that he was a scientist...simple...not so sure about that.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I guess it was a blood test the day before and I misread the post.

I thought we established at some point that Dubb was a simple scientist sometime along the way, though.

He was a simple scientist on day one and clear on day 2....so he would have been a night 2/3 conversion in my mind if he was. I forgot he had been cleared at all, so we were both wrong.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

We did establish that he was a scientist...simple...not so sure about that.

Actually, he was the one who brought up the simple part, so as far as his role he was the one i was most sure had no role. But that doesnt mean he wasnt converted

[Blade6119]

UNVOTE RAIDERS ARMY
VOTE DUBB
He is too appealing a target if your a thing...his track record as a bad guy is infamous for how good it is.

[JeeberD]

Yup, I've been under the radar the past few days...this is the first time I've been on FOFC since I think Thursday night (maybe Friday afternoon). I had a lack of free time and wasn't able to make a visit...

I have no proof to offer you all that I'm still clean. I would rather you voted somewhere else, but I doubt I can sway y'all.

Personally, there are a couple of folks who I would REALLY like to see get tested. First, I think Barkeep is WAY overdue for a testing. The only thing telling us that Qwik was a Thing is Barkeeps word. I really don't see anything in the description saying that he wasn't human. I just want to finally get Barkeep squared away...

The other person is dubb. Just something about the way he was acting the day after he got tested really rubbed me wrong. And it seems like a brilliant move to convert him after seeing the inital lack of suspicion on me after I was tested.

For now, though, I really want to see what's going on with Barkeep...

Vote Barkeep

[Barkeep49]

Jeeber Blade has made a good case for arguing that the description cleared me based on the fire element. So that mades me clear as of Night 2. So what the fuck, go ahead and test me, but just like every other day it's a fucking waste of time. You've made your statement against me but where is your response to all of the people voting for you?

[Raiders Army]

UNVOTE BLADE
VOTE JEEBERD

Nobody is turning his way; I'm off until after the vote is over.

[JeeberD]

Like I said, I have no proof to offer that shows I'm clean.

[st.cronin]

Guys I am sorry I have been absent! I closed a deal on a new house, and the deal came together very last minute, and I have been totally offline since Thursday.

I will try and get caught up.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by JeeberD

Like I said, I have no proof to offer that shows I'm clean.

Well if that isn't a reassuring response for that twit peddler I don't know what is. "I don't have a response and I don't fucking care". Man. That's classic.

[Barkeep49]

I'm out until after lynch.

[mckerney]

Vote Anxiety

I think this is a better choice than JeeberD. I think it's likely the things mostly went the route of converting mostly under the radar type players while we spend our time being suspicious of people who have been cleared.

[hoopsguy]

Votes as of Post #1485:

Barkeep - Anxiety (1331), JeeberD (1478)
Anxiety - WVUFAN (1365), Dubb (1427), Barkeep (1448), mckerney (1485)
Jeeber - Hoopsguy (1450), Path (1452), Swaggs (1465), Raiders (1480)
Dubb - Coffee (1437), Blade (1477)

Not voted: Cronin, Tanglewood


The good news is that both of the people who haven't voted are in the thread now. The bad news is that we have a tie at the moment. If it comes down to it I expect to be here around deadline and will do what I can to make sure it doesn't end up a tie.

[tanglewood]

I've just got back in from a long, long day and have caught up, but I can't guarentee that I'll be around near the end of the day, but will certainly try.

I would still like to test Barkeep (sorry to sound liek a broken record), but my suspicion of Jeeber D has been slowly increasing throughout the game. I marked him as a very possible conversion a few days (real time) ago, and his low post count is just, well, odd.

Vote JeeberD

[st.cronin]

vote Dubb

I am positive he is a Thing.

[Blade6119]

LOL, votes are 5-4-3-2...i find that hilarious

[JeeberD]

Originally Posted by tanglewood

I would still like to test Barkeep (sorry to sound liek a broken record), but my suspicion of Jeeber D has been slowly increasing throughout the game. I marked him as a very possible conversion a few days (real time) ago, and his low post count is just, well, odd.

Vote JeeberD

Dude, my post counts are ALWAYS low in WW games.

And since it seems like no one else wants to join me in checking out Barkeep, I'll go with the other guy I find suspicious since there might be a chance of checking him out...

Unvote barkeep

Vote Dubb

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

vote Dubb

I am positive he is a Thing.

Just like you were(prob. still) are positive im a thing as well?

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, can you expand a little bit on your thinking here? I know you have played your cards a little close to the vest up to this point. I know that CW cleared you with his scan last night. I'm willing to switch my vote to Dubb (creating a 4-4-4 tie with 90 minutes to go) if you present an argument that I buy.

Is he a night 2 or night 3 convert in your mind? What posts of his specifically set off warning bells?

[Blade6119]

5-4-4-1...not nearly as funny...

[hoopsguy]

5-4-4-1 = pretty good chance the Things will be looking to steer this vote.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Just like you were(prob. still) are positive im a thing as well?

I am. I think you and dubb were Things yesterday, and now there is one more, which could be anybody (Jeeber's not a bad pick, but it's probably CW).

Dubb has made several misleading posts. Granted that I have as well.

[JeeberD]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

5-4-4-1...not nearly as funny...

Sorry to ruin your fun, bud...

[hoopsguy]

Just playing straight math, there is a 55% chance we have a Thing in the middle of a three-way vote with fourteen players (3 Things, 11 Scientists). I would hope that it is better than straight random.

11/14 * 10/13 * 9/12 = about 45% chance of hitting three scientists. Which means a 55% chance of having at least one Thing.

[Coffee Warlord]

Keeping an eye, though I'm gonna be watching the Bulls game shortly.

I will try and break any ties at the end if necessary, though I like my vote where it is (dubb).

[hoopsguy]

Bulls or 24? Decisions, decisions ...

[Abe Sargent]

Unvote Barkeep

Vote JeeberD


In order to vote for somebody I'm unsure of.

-Anxiety