Daytrading...

[Flasch186]

Sep was +1.18

At least that's what I transcribed when looking back on this thread.

[Flasch186]

So vs. S&P:

July 7.76% vs -1.51%
August .72% vs 3.77%
September 1.18% vs -1.55%

[Flasch186]

Only 2 more days to try to make this month something decent. The CBS short has been a face melter and CCL hasnt been much better. I covered my ALLY short yesterday morning before it zoomed off so at least I pocketed a gain there after a long time but these 2 other positions need to get much better to be profitable.

[SportsDino]

I am starting to place shorts today on some of my weaker targets, may pick up more if it is another up day tomorrow. Will know if it blows up in my face in a week. I'm betting on red!

[Flasch186]

I'm with you. Today was painful scaling in

This has been the most whipsawwed month Ive had so far and has gone from potentially being my best month to hopefully making it to even at this point. Ill know tomorrow.

[Flasch186]

So October ends up 2.30% but with my homerun on my TSLA short and the subsequent strikeouts on just about everything else I call this month a failure. I wish I wouldve just taken a break after the TSLA short and I wouldve been up like 10%. I take some solace in not being negative for the month but it truly was a roller coaster that Id like to avoid as Im more of a singles and doubles kind of guy.

Oct +2.30% vs S&P +2.32%

[Flasch186]

Struggling thus far in November as well. At this moment I remain only short CCL and CBS. I danced in EXPE, AMZN, and FB for miniscule takes...

[JAG]

Another question if you don't mind. About how much time do you spend on this per day?

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by JAG

Another question if you don't mind. About how much time do you spend on this per day?

A lot except when I'm working on Real Estate, managing Realtors, managing properties, etc. I'd say from 8-5 I have it on, either on my phone, computer or TV. Even still most of what Im doing is technical (I'd hope) versus investable data. Its been profitable thus far and some decent supplemental income.

[Flasch186]

Another month of toil as I try to eek out gains to make myself feel decent or flattish while my short in CCL continues to languish. I hang in on that short as the charts tell me too but dang. This month is looking like a down month.

[SportsDino]

My more active money is mostly short as well, cost averaged up to relatively 17450 against Dow (as in I need it to fall to that point to break even). My overall portfolio is heavy long so continued growth is good for me but I am betting on a dip with my gambling money. I will probably put another round of shorts out if it gets over 17800 but I need a decline to buy some stuff with the cash.

My buys around 16300 are looking good but now I really wish I went nuts at 16100's.

[flere-imsaho]

I don't daytrade, but I am seriously considering buying a long position in Activision/Blizzard (ATVI). The new WoW expansion has good buzz, as does the next expansion for Starcraft. And the new Overwatch looks like it'll be an even bigger, even better TF2, which has been a money-printing license for Valve.

[Flasch186]

Rough day being short. this is looking like a negative month if something doesnt change dramatically the second half of it.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

I don't daytrade, but I am seriously considering buying a long position in Activision/Blizzard (ATVI). The new WoW expansion has good buzz, as does the next expansion for Starcraft. And the new Overwatch looks like it'll be an even bigger, even better TF2, which has been a money-printing license for Valve.

That stuff is all factored into the price of the stock already - don't go buying a game developer on the basis of upcoming releases generally.

[Flasch186]

CCL is either at the top of its range and due to drop off of the top Bollinger /price channel way down or is breaking out which would be so bad as I'm heavy short it.

[Marc Vaughan]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

That stuff is all factored into the price of the stock already - don't go buying a game developer on the basis of upcoming releases generally.

Definitely agree with this ..

[SportsDino]

I would not buy a game company based on particular releases either. You also got to remember activision also has sky landers, destiny and call of duty, whether you like them or not personally they are all cash cows. A big game company you like may have the blockbuster hit of the year and at the same time massive financial difficulties.

That said Activision has been great for me this year, I held it even during the recent decline because ytd it has been insane. Do not expect it to grow like it has this year, there is sort of a followers effect when people see a great streak in a stock, unfortunately the streak is the long term readjustment in price. It is still a solid buy, but it is not going to sustain another 100 percent year. I see no reason it is going to start losing money anytime soon so it is a safe buy. Cash-wise it is strong and ultimately that is what I look for, a bigger pile of money coming in than going out. Regardless of how stupid they appear to gamers sometimes they do know how to run the money making machine they have and are far from exhausting it.

Edit: my target for end of next year is 24, which means I think it will hit or be near that price at some point then I judge where it is going to go from there and change my position, or panic if I do my company review and the numbers are wildly different than I thought.

[SportsDino]

Used all the budget I am going to put into the scheme for the shorts to average my break even point up to 17500 relative to Dow. Super leveraged because I then put the cash into short funds that go up when market declines. I have 7 percent of my portfolio in this play so it needs to start producing by end of month.

The other 93 percent is long positions, overall this has been a strong growth year and my games with the crazy money (usually 5 percent) have paid off on average. I have good luck with the short local maxima to fund buys in the following trough in prices (same amount of money ends up buying 105-115 percent long) the extra percentage points help me increase growth while still overall having a value buy long strategy.

[Flasch186]

On tues I have to cover CCL to receive the DIV and I can re-enter short on Wed. or call it a day and take my losses. Boooooo

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

That stuff is all factored into the price of the stock already - don't go buying a game developer on the basis of upcoming releases generally.

The game business is a surprisingly bad investment in general. You basically need a Grand Theft Auto every few years to make any money. Depending on one of those every couple of years is speculative.

[Marc Vaughan]

Originally Posted by Desnudo

The game business is a surprisingly bad investment in general. You basically need a Grand Theft Auto every few years to make any money. Depending on one of those every couple of years is speculative.

Thats not true at all in my experience - its not about the 'size' of a hit, its about how a studio is managing their development costs against the sales of their products.

If you spent $200m creating a game then you have to have a monster hit to even break even, if however you budget sensibly and ensure your development costs are lower then you can make a profit on relatively modest sales (in comparison to GTA) ... think about smaller studios like OOTP Developments and how long they've thrived for etc.

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by Marc Vaughan

Thats not true at all in my experience - its not about the 'size' of a hit, its about how a studio is managing their development costs against the sales of their products.

If you spent $200m creating a game then you have to have a monster hit to even break even, if however you budget sensibly and ensure your development costs are lower then you can make a profit on relatively modest sales (in comparison to GTA) ... think about smaller studios like OOTP Developments and how long they've thrived for etc.

That may be true with smaller, private companies. Look at the larger publicly held companies and its definitely boom or bust.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Marc Vaughan

Thats not true at all in my experience - its not about the 'size' of a hit, its about how a studio is managing their development costs against the sales of their products.

If you spent $200m creating a game then you have to have a monster hit to even break even, if however you budget sensibly and ensure your development costs are lower then you can make a profit on relatively modest sales (in comparison to GTA) ... think about smaller studios like OOTP Developments and how long they've thrived for etc.

This is true in the one sense, but there are no game studios of that size that are publicly traded companies, that's the issue.

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by Desnudo

That may be true with smaller, private companies. Look at the larger publicly held companies and its definitely boom or bust.

Also, I definitely digress to your experience on working in the game business and don't doubt you can make a decent living running one. I'm looking at it from an investor perspective relative to other opportunities that are out there and looking at the financials of EA, Activision, and Take-Two all tell me stay away.

[Flasch186]

Japan surprises into recession. CCL has a minor outbreak on board of one of their ships and Im hoping tomorrow sells down and I can cover on Tuesday as required and then figure it out on Wed.

[flere-imsaho]

I may have been unclear. I'm not buying a little chunk of ATVI based on an upcoming release schedule. And I also understand that their financials have not always been great. I am buying a little chunk as a long term hold (i.e. years) based on what they're building from a franchise perspective.

In retrospect, perhaps a bad choice to post this in the "daytrading" thread.

[Desnudo]

It's your money, but I was replying based on that assumption. If all you want is a little chunk for fun, then sure, but Activision certainly isn't cheap or a company I would want to hold long term. I would take a look at Take-Two if you are dead set on owning a gaming company stock.

[SportsDino]

The two gaming companies mentioned in this thread outperform the market this year, overall some gaming companies have failed against the market (for instance Nintendo). I consider them a mix of tech and entertainment stocks which are more volatile than average. In my opinion the whole market is a casino so your gambling no matter where you bet.

[Flasch186]

Started making some gains to get back to scratch for the month. Went into kmi, amzn, and shorted QCOM (again).

[Flasch186]

This is going to be a negative month. I can feel it. CCL has been awful. I'm still short it as I covered some of it this morning but couldn't unwind it all since it moved so aggressively. What to do, what to do?

[Logan]

Is all the month-by-month stuff something important for daytrading purposes, or is just a mental thing for tracking performance? I figured it was the latter but then I don't know why you'd seemingly be in such a rush to close positions in some of these cases.

[Flasch186]

Just mental. I was trying to close out the CCL because I'm short it which means I have to pay the dividend out to the owner of the shares I borrowed from.

Regarding the moves in making, I'm still learning ☺ luckily I'm up in my early attempts which has bought me some wiggle room to make errors. CCL the biggest thus far.

I'm only playing off of the charts or my interpretation of them so that's why some of my moves may not many long term sense. It may have been a mistake eyc

[Flasch186]

Exited kmi early this morning as it's chart broke. Went into amzn earlier in the week for the gain. Got out of QCOM short to preserve a win but now it's chart is beginning to look long to me. Slowly buying into TWTR.

[SportsDino]

Covering my shorts that are positive or even to reduce my short position and use up some cash sitting around. While the index is going up which is bad for the play some of the stocks I played were relatively flat which allowed a small profit on the sold positions. However, the ones I hold are all still red so those losses will probably wipe that out.

[Gary Gorski]

This is a really fascinating thread - I love the market although I don't daytrade. I have a few core positions that are long term holds and then I try to find stocks that I think will move in the short term (weeks usually) for a trade.

[Marc Vaughan]

Originally Posted by Gary Gorski

This is a really fascinating thread - I love the market although I don't daytrade. I have a few core positions that are long term holds and then I try to find stocks that I think will move in the short term (weeks usually) for a trade.

Yeah I'm the same - my current long stocks have been like a Yo-Yo in the last year, the variance has been downright ludicrous ... fortunately I'm in it for the long haul so when they're down I tend to just think of it as the dividend reinvestment is even better ...

[Flasch186]

whooo, this is going to be a bad month. CCL has been a debacle that I extracted myself from over time but the lumps were big ones. Dec. is almost going to be a fresh start. I'm up but man Oct and even worse Nov I hope to be able to take lessons from. I had too many holdings at times and didnt cut my losers fast enough.

[Senator]

I am not about to threadjack this fascinating thread. I always respect the time and effort someone has to try and better their financial situation.

From a personal standpoint, I have always taken the turtle approach. A few years back Scott Adams listed 9 investment points, and surprisingly, I matched up on every point except point 9, which I invest in munis, a multiple site franchise, and some real estate. Not easy, and lots of self-denial, and probably wouldn't work for many people.

[flere-imsaho]

Could you provide a link to that, Senator?

[Flasch186]

It was a bad month as I thought.

-3.25% vs +2.45 (I think)

My holdings ATM are

Small short on CCL finally but an awful trade throughout
Small long on COP
Small-med long TWTR
Large short TSLA put on FRI so this has started out very well.

12:45 - closed out the TSLA short for a big gain just so I can go home and stop looking at it. Dec. is off to a good start.

[Senator]

Here it is flere:
https://retirementplans.vanguard.com...ersonalFinance

Back to the adventures of Flasch.

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by Senator

Here it is flere:
https://retirementplans.vanguard.com...ersonalFinance

Back to the adventures of Flasch.

FWIW the only one I havnt done is the last one...

[flere-imsaho]

Thanks Senator!

[SportsDino]

Liquidated last of my shorts on 12-1 to stop the bleeding, took some minor losses but I will forget that easily enough by thinking about most of my portfolio longs doing great.

All year my assumption has been a 17k Dow end of year so now that it is here I need to figure out what is next. Will probably spend the month rebalancing the portfolio to take some profits and fund my next scheme.

Early number crunching has me optimistic for next year, will be trying to find value stocks mostly and putting my crazy money in small caps I think will explode or be bought up.

[Flasch186]

Weird month thus far.

Chased some momentum up on HD and JD, my shorts on C and ZION paid off a bit yesterday but Im slightly in (long) COP and (long) TWTR and have to wait those guys out.

Up on the month thus far but just feel like I dont have a good grip on things at the moment.

[Flasch186]

More downward moves today helped a bit. At the end of the day I went in hard on DIS (long) to see how that pans out on Monday. I'm ready to get out of my C and ZION shorts as soon as the charts say too.

[Flasch186]

Good day today. My C holdings are now positive and I chased TSN downward on a short that has gone well.

I currently hold COP (down on)
DIS (Down on)
TWTR (Down on)

and thats it along with my C and TSN shorts.

Good month thus far though.

[Chief Rum]

Forgive me if this is covered here, but is there a site where you can make fake trades (i.e. all completely internal to the site) on real securities, like a training site for trading? Getting practice in would seem to be valuable before jumping into the market with real money.

[Flasch186]

I think almost all of them offer something like that. ETrade, Scott Trade, Fidelity, etc.

Call them up and ask.

[Flasch186]

Another good day as I covered C for a gain and I covered TSN for a great short trade.

Picked up a long position in HL