POL--Obama's Problems Starting Already (Email Forward)

[SFL Cat]

^^^That would be interesting. Initially one would think it might hurt the Republicans if he ran as an independent, but then it could also hurt the Dems since Giuliani is conservative on fiscal and defense matters, but liberal on social issues important to them.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I don't think so. Bush in 2000 presented an education policy and a general position on cutting taxes. Everything else was left to generalities. Gore presented many more specific policy options. People voted for Bush because they trusted him and liked him. How many times did people talk about liking Bush more?

Every presidential election since at least FDR the more likable candidate has won. That isn't to say that policy doesn't matter for any voters. The general dynamic of 40% definite R, 40% definite D and 20% up for grabs holds for almost every presidential election. The people who decide the election, that 20% uncommitted, tend to vote for a president based on their gut, not policy analysis.

And that makes some degree of sense to me. Afterall most of what a president will have to deal with is unknown during an election. The centerpieces of Bush's presidency weren't on the table in 2000. People want a president that they can believe in. Presenting detailed policy positions will almost certainly lose a presidential election.

The keys are likability, a ton of cash and a good rapid response team. Policy would at best be fourth on the list.

I was going to argue against this, but I think I just argued myself into agreeing with you. Elections between two first-term candidates seem to be more about likeability while elections against a sitting President seem to have issues matter more.

I do think though that the Dems need to make some mention of policies though. They pushed the "We're not Bush" position well enough for Congresional seats, but "We're not Republicans" won't work as a Presidential stance. Some position must be put forth. Likeability can't do everything.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by BrianD

I was going to argue against this, but I think I just argued myself into agreeing with you. Elections between two first-term candidates seem to be more about likeability while elections against a sitting President seem to have issues matter more.

I do think though that the Dems need to make some mention of policies though. They pushed the "We're not Bush" position well enough for Congresional seats, but "We're not Republicans" won't work as a Presidential stance. Some position must be put forth. Likeability can't do everything.

The difference though is that the U.S. isn't usually in the middle of a military occupation of another country during an election without an incumbent. While the above theory holds true in most situation, I believe that Iraq modifies the equation to a significant extent. Unless something dramatic happens between now and the election, what to do about Iraq will be the biggest issue that the Presidential candidates have to address.

[JPhillips]

dawgfan: I don't disagree that it will be a big issue, but I'm cynical enough to believe that a real policy proscription for what to do in Iraq will be a mistake. The candidate that makes it clear exactly what he/she will do will lose. The key will be to dance around the issue so that as many people as possible think your advocating the position they agree with.

[PSUColonel]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

dawgfan: I don't disagree that it will be a big issue, but I'm cynical enough to believe that a real policy proscription for what to do in Iraq will be a mistake. The candidate that makes it clear exactly what he/she will do will lose. The key will be to dance around the issue so that as many people as possible think your advocating the position they agree with.

just the kind of strong backboned leader I want for this nation.

[JPhillips]

PSU: Bush did the same thing in 2004.

[Raiders Army]

I'm all for a minority President, but Blacks aren't the majority minority anymore. Carlos Mencia for President!

[PSUColonel]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

PSU: Bush did the same thing in 2004.

and that makes it right how exactly??

[JPhillips]

Right has very little to do with winning elections.