{Smacking Head} Volatility (Booms/Busts)

[cthomer5000]

Originally Posted by Franklinnoble

dola... I think it's kind of cool, if these sort of late booms are deliberate.... after all, Stephen Davis wasn't remembered for anything but getting his ass kicked by Michael Westbrook for the first three years of his career....

Or Rich Gannon. He's been a man posessed for the last few years after an incredibly forgettable first 8 or 9.

[Franklinnoble]

Originally Posted by cthomer5000

Or Rich Gannon. He's been a man posessed for the last few years after an incredibly forgettable first 8 or 9.

Agreed... although he's aged pretty rapidly now... and might be just about done.

[wig]

Originally Posted by Franklinnoble

Did he play at all prior to that season?

He's been the starter since his rookie year.

[SFL Cat]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

Another one. Back in 2005, KC drafted T Matthew Flynn with the 7(17) pick. He had high volatility (76). Check out this development:

END 2005
Playing Time: 7 games, 2 starts, 144 offensive snaps
Overall: 25/44
Run Blk: 19/42
Pass Blk: 17/42
Blk Str: 64
End: 19/21

END 2006
Playing Time: 6 games, 24 offensive snaps
Overall: 36/48 (+4)
Run Blk: 33/48 (+6)
Pass Blk: 30/47 (+5)
Blk Str: 65 (+1)
End: 22/23 (+2)

END 2007
Playing Time: 4 games, 17 snaps
Overall: 46/51 (+3)
Run Blk: 48/52 (+4)
Pass Blk: 42/50 (+3)
Blk Str: 66 (+1)
End: 26 (+3)

END 2008
Playing Time: 7 games, 2 starts, 187 snaps
Overall: 50/53 (+2)
Run Blk: 54/56 (+4)
Pass Blk: 46/52 (+2)
Blk Str: 65 (-1)
End: 28 (+2)

END 2009
Playing Time: 5 games, 1 start, 88 snaps
Overall: 52/55 (+2)
Run Blk: 56/57 (+1)
Pass Blk: 49/55 (+3)
Blk Str: 66 (+1)
End: 28 (nc)

END 2010
Playing Time: 16 games, 16 starts, 929 snaps
Overall: 51/53 (-2)
Run Blk: 54/55 (-2)
Pass Blk: 49/55 (+3)
Blk Str: 65 (-1)
End: 26 (-2)

END 2011
Playing Time: 16 games, 16 starts, 976 snaps
Overall: 52/54 (+1)
Run Blk: 57/58 (+3)
Pass Blk: 50/54 (-1)
Blk Str: 64 (-1)
End: 26 (nc)

At this point, after two seasons of playing full time with very little growth and almost complete red lines, and being finished with his 6th year in the league, I would have thought this guy was done developing. WRONG!!! Look what happened at the beginning of year 7.

2012 AFTER TRAINING CAMP
Overall: 71/73 (+19)
Run Blk: 77/78 (+20)
Pass Blk: 63/68 (+15)
Blk Str: 85 (+21)
End: 60 (+34)

This is a classic example of what Quik mentioned in his penultimate paragraph--a year 7 boom, and one of VERY significant magnitude.

That guy obviously upgraded his brand of steroids.

Very interesting, btw...but I wonder how many real life players make such a drastic positive jump in their statistics after six or seven relatively steady seasons.

[Troll]

idk if its just me, but i've had several late booms and i've noticed a patern in their performance after.

I had a LT make a jump from an estimate of 76 to 98 entering his 8th year. Up to that point he was a very good LT. In his 7 years he was a 3 time 2nd team all pro. He had 3 years left on his contract with me, he played 6 games in the 3 years after his "boom." He went on to play for another team(with a huge salary!) and never played more than 7 games a season the rest of his career.

I had a RB make a big jump from an estimate of 28 to 67 entering his 5th year. He suffered an injury in training camp that sent his stats back down(ACL surgery.)

The 3rd player was a LB. He jumped from an estimate of 55 to 88 entering his 7th year. He was a backup before then, had just started 1 season, the season prior. He had the big jump and was on the IR before the end of the season. He contract expired and I did not resign him. With the exception of 1 season the rest of his career he never played in more than half the games a season.

These are the only 3 on MY teams that have had big late career booms. I haven't noticed other teams tho.

[Bonegavel]

People still play this game?

[bulletsponge]

yes