Fantasy Football 2015 Advice Thread

[miked]

Went with West considering how terrible the Lions are. Still deciding between Stewart and Martin, but leaning Martin. I hate the fact that Cam Newton and Mike Tolbert seem to score all the goal-line TDs. Stewart has started every game for CAR and is ranked 24th in my league.

[Neuqua]

If John Brown is out I'm trying to decide whether to start Michael Floyd over Crabtree/T. Benjamin.

.5 PPR, I'm 2-4-1 and in dire need of a win.

[Marmel]

So I went TY, Washington and Bryant. Sat Cooper. Washington is having a great week with 74 yds and a TD. Bryant busted with 10 rec yards. Hilton goes tomorrow. Palmer matched Brady in fantasy points and I am a projected 9 point winner as of 4pm.

[Suicane75]

Ughh, so I'm tied. Opponent has nobody left. I have Packers defense and Andre Johnson. Trying to decide whether to sit the Packers just in case of negative points. Either decision I make will be the wrong one.

[Suicane75]

Originally Posted by Suicane75

Either decision I make will be the wrong one.

You got that right, dipshit.

[Coffee Warlord]

With the news that Keenan Allen will likely miss some time...

I lost Allen & Steve Smith this week, and I have 4 other players on bye. Yikes.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

With the news that Keenan Allen will likely miss some time...

I lost Allen & Steve Smith this week, and I have 4 other players on bye. Yikes.

What's your read on Langford/Forte? Are the Bears likely to cut Forte after the season, making this a tryout for Langford, or is that overblown?

[Coffee Warlord]

Dunno if it's overblown - it's the smart move. The season is obviously shot, for one. No reason to not see if Langford can be the #1 next year.

For two, Forte is getting some mileage on him. He's still very, very good, but I think he's gonna demand a big price tag, and the Bears have wayyy too many holes on defense to pay him what he wants, AND Alshon is a free agent after this season - who would you want to invest in? Alshon Jeffery or Matt Forte?

I'm assuming Forte's out a week or two at least - I think we'll get a big dose of Langford to see how he does.

[Marmel]

Last time I was in this thread, the correct answer was bench Hilton. I needed him to get 30 yards in that game, and he had his worst game of the year and I lost by a point.

This week I am in 3rd place and playing the 2nd place team. Somehow I have collected a hoard of running backs and I'm not sure who to start or just completely drop....here they are in general order of use:

Freeman (ATL)
Lynch (SEA)
Yeldon (JAX)
Murray (OAK)
Williams (PIT) - bye week
Anderson (DEN)

I also just picked up West (KC) on waivers.

I seems everybody in this league hates RBs and never picks them up. I started the year with Lynch, Anderson and Yeldon. I picked up Freeman before his first big game on a hunch and just grabbed these other guys here and there. Everyone else hoards QBs and WRs in this league.

So, do you just start Lynch and Freeman the rest of the year barring injury or is West a real good play now? Should I just drop Anderson or will he have a strong finish to the season?

[QuikSand]

First, Marmel, your league is a bunch of clowns. So mazel tov, or somehing.

Second, I think you have to play matchups- SD is a juicy opponent and I say you have to play West (and Freeman) this week ahead of Lynch and he rest of your group.

[Marmel]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

First, Marmel, your league is a bunch of clowns. So mazel tov, or somehing.

Second, I think you have to play matchups- SD is a juicy opponent and I say you have to play West (and Freeman) this week ahead of Lynch and he rest of your group.

It is a very casual league of neighbors and family and it was only $20 for the year, so only about half of the league put any effort into it. The first place guy drafted very well (he also had the #1 overall pick). I drafted horribly in retrospect. Romo, Anderson, Flacco, etc... I have twice the number of FA pickups as anybody else and re-tooled my whole team during the first 4 weeks and a 1-3 start. Now a win this weekend would put me in 2nd place.

Anyhow, your advice sounds great and I went with it so thanks!

[Suicane75]

Huge matchup for me this week as winning essentially means I have the #1 seed locked up. 2nd QB is either Wilson Vs SF, Palmer Vs Cin or Sanchez Vs TB.

[miked]

Looks like I picked the wrong weekend to leave Doug Martin on the bench.

[miked]

Man, got Tom Brady with no WRs against a tough DEN defense on the road vs. Eli Manning against WAS. I said I would never play matchups with Brady, but I don't see how he does anything.

[QuikSand]

Man, Sammy Watkins has been frustrating. I picked him up on waivers in two money leagues, and since his return he's posted boom bust bust boom, IIRC. And the swings were massive - two league-best days and two zeroes. When I have credible alternatives, what do I do with this cat? He was in my lineup in both leagues last week as I lost both games by 1pt. This week he's on the pine as he goes off for a monster day.

[Coffee Warlord]

Alright, I need 5.5 points from Run DMC, and 7 points from Dez Bryant to secure me a playoff bye.

Disturbing Fact - My most likely starting lineup will feature precisely 2 players I drafted. My entire team only has 5 people left from the draft. Everybody else is waiver claims. Thank you injuries and useless Eddie Lacy.

[Coffee Warlord]

Missed the bye by half a damn point.

Alright, groupthink. I need a TE, and my options are...limited. Looks like my"best" choices include..

Ladarius Green
Owen Daniels
Coby Fleener
Will Tye

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Missed the bye by half a damn point.

Alright, groupthink. I need a TE, and my options are...limited. Looks like my"best" choices include..

Ladarius Green
Owen Daniels
Coby Fleener
Will Tye

That's the definition of a crap shoot. I'd say a Hail Mary and then roll a dice. That way, if it does not work out, you can blame God.

[Coffee Warlord]

Yeah, pretty much. TE has been an...unfortunate spot for me all year.

Yeah, I had Graham, and stubbornly stuck with him until he went on IR. Now it's dumpster level.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Yeah, pretty much. TE has been an...unfortunate spot for me all year.

Yeah, I had Graham, and stubbornly stuck with him until he went on IR. Now it's dumpster level.

I feel you on Graham - I spent big in our initial dynasty league draft to get him, and even with 12 keepers I think I have to drop him for next year. PS how deep of a league is this? Even in our 14 team FOFC league you have ASJ & Jacob Tamme available. Vance McDonald (if he passes the concussion test). Jared Cook has actually been getting targets. Any of those guys available? If not, I'd guess Green and hope for a Gates injury. Even without one they still have no healthy WR's and a slightly better matchup than last week's vs Denver.

I somehow snuck into the last playoff spot (.5 pt PPR), and am now debating Duke Johnson Jr. (SF) vs Antonio Andrews (NYJ). Yahoo!'s projections (which I rarely agree with) literally have Johnson doubling up Andrews points, and no one really runs on the Jets, but I'm finding it hard to bench the guy seemingly guaranteed 10-15 touches and potential goal-line work in Andrews for a complete dart throw in Johnson. Has SF's defense fallen off enough that Johnson's ceiling is worth it?

[Coffee Warlord]

I shoulda mentioned I do have McDonald, but, for obvious reasons, I'll need a just in case guy.

12 team league, ASJ and Tamme are actually not available. Cook is.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

I shoulda mentioned I do have McDonald, but, for obvious reasons, I'll need a just in case guy.

12 team league, ASJ and Tamme are actually not available. Cook is.

Hope McDonald passes. If not, I'd go Green or Cook, but yeah it's ugly.

2nd dilemma for me if I win a waiver claim - do I start Mariota (vs. NYJ), or Matt Ryan (@ CAR)? I'm a pretty big underdog, so I'm thinking I'll just ride or die with Mariota, but I could be swayed pretty easily if anyone's who's watched a Falcons game can tell me if Ryan's actually been playing this poorly solely due to Shanahan's system, or if he's getting unlucky too.

[albionmoonlight]

Unless Jarvis Landry goes off for 52 points tonight, I am out of the running in my league.

Still, considering that I spent over half my auction budget on LeVeon Bell and Jeremy Hill, the fact that I limped into the fantasy playoffs at 7-6 is one of my prouder accomplishments.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Unless Jarvis Landry goes off for 52 points tonight, I am out of the running in my league.

Still, considering that I spent over half my auction budget on LeVeon Bell and Jeremy Hill, the fact that I limped into the fantasy playoffs at 7-6 is one of my prouder accomplishments.

Haha, very similar feeling here, although I only need 26 from Landry... so there's a very slim chance. (He did it just 2 weeks ago! And then the OC got fired for throwing it so much...)

Granted, it's mostly due to a fluke where a few teams won 10+ and no team was worse than 4-9, so I limped in as a 5-8 6 seed, but my dynasty league bench is Le'Veon Bell, Kelvin Benjamin, Justin Forsett, Jimmy Graham, Josh Gordon, Andre Ellington and Nelson Agholor. And I started the season with Peyton Manning at QB and traded DeAngelo Williams for a 2017 1st-round pick at the trade deadline when I figured my team was dead in the water and even if I limped into the playoffs I couldn't make noise in them anyway.

[Vince, Pt. II]

So I've got a bit of a quandary about my flex spot. Locks:

RB Freeman
RB Ivory
WR Beckham Jr.

Probably a lock:

WR Landry

Flex options:
RB David Johnson
WR Alshon Jeffery
WR John Brown

I'm leaning Jeffery @ Flex and Landry at WR, but Brown might be a good play. I also may be overthinking this.

[Comey]

My RB options have me puzzled. I can play three:

Shady
Gurley
Lacy
Denard Robinson
Bryce Brown
Cam Artis-Payne

The top three are my likely options...but Robinson and Brown are quite enticing. Both are playing bad run defenses, and Brown will get a lot of carries against an awful Browns defense.

Thoughts?

[Comey]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

So I've got a bit of a quandary about my flex spot. Locks:

RB Freeman
RB Ivory
WR Beckham Jr.

Probably a lock:

WR Landry

Flex options:
RB David Johnson
WR Alshon Jeffery
WR John Brown

I'm leaning Jeffery @ Flex and Landry at WR, but Brown might be a good play. I also may be overthinking this.

Eagles defense, minus that three-week acid trip, has been pretty solid...and increasingly so. That said, I'd really consider Brown...Eagles D is tough against the run, but Brown is your best chance at a home run.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Originally Posted by Comey

My RB options have me puzzled. I can play three:

Shady
Gurley
Lacy
Denard Robinson
Bryce Brown
Cam Artis-Payne

The top three are my likely options...but Robinson and Brown are quite enticing. Both are playing bad run defenses, and Brown will get a lot of carries against an awful Browns defense.

Thoughts?

Didn't the Seagulls just keep throwing, even after they were up big last week? I don't see any reason for them to buck that trend, especially after plugging in an RB from off the street.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Comey

My RB options have me puzzled. I can play three:

Shady
Gurley
Lacy
Denard Robinson
Bryce Brown
Cam Artis-Payne

The top three are my likely options...but Robinson and Brown are quite enticing. Both are playing bad run defenses, and Brown will get a lot of carries against an awful Browns defense.

Thoughts?

Go with the top 3 and it's not even close. Robinson is quite interesting, but Yeldon hasn't even been ruled out yet. I have no idea what the Seahawks and Panthers situation will shake out to be, both of those guys could easily give you a goose egg.

I think Robinson would be an OK start if Yeldon was out, but I don't think he's a better option than any of the top 3. Unless Lacy decides he's going to miss curfew again.

[Marmel]

So my last two trips to this thread resulted in my only 2 losses in an 8-2 finish and a semi-final playoff spot, but I will chalk that up to small sample size and ask, which 2 RBs should I start:

Deangelo Williams (PIT) vs Den
Devonta Freeman (ATL) vs Jax
Latavius Murray (OAK) vs GB
Tim Hightower (NO) vs Det

Edited to add: West (KC) and David Johnson (AZ) are available FAs.

Also, WR Martavius Bryant (PIT) vs Denver or a questionable Amari Cooper (OAK) vs GB

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Marmel

So my last two trips to this thread resulted in my only 2 losses in an 8-2 finish and a semi-final playoff spot, but I will chalk that up to small sample size and ask, which 2 RBs should I start:

Deangelo Williams (PIT) vs Den
Devonta Freeman (ATL) vs Jax
Latavius Murray (OAK) vs GB
Tim Hightower (NO) vs Det

Also, WR Martavius Bryant (PIT) vs Denver or a questionable Amari Cooper (OAK) vs GB

I don't have an answer for you, but I will give some information--Tim Hightower was definitely the main back for the Saints. It was not a share between him and Spiller and he just got the points. He was definitely the bell cow back.

[cmp]

Originally Posted by Comey

My RB options have me puzzled. I can play three:

Shady
Gurley
Lacy
Denard Robinson
Bryce Brown
Cam Artis-Payne

The top three are my likely options...but Robinson and Brown are quite enticing. Both are playing bad run defenses, and Brown will get a lot of carries against an awful Browns defense.

Thoughts?

The top 3 without question.

[cmp]

Originally Posted by Marmel

So my last two trips to this thread resulted in my only 2 losses in an 8-2 finish and a semi-final playoff spot, but I will chalk that up to small sample size and ask, which 2 RBs should I start:

Deangelo Williams (PIT) vs Den
Devonta Freeman (ATL) vs Jax
Latavius Murray (OAK) vs GB
Tim Hightower (NO) vs Det

Edited to add: West (KC) and David Johnson (AZ) are available FAs.

Also, WR Martavius Bryant (PIT) vs Denver or a questionable Amari Cooper (OAK) vs GB

Pickup Johnson and start him. It's a toss-up for me between DeAngelo and Devonta.

[QuikSand]

Okay, I have one. League semifinal game, no PPR, unconventional scoring but basically tracks what you'd expect.

Have 2 RB slots and 1 WR slot firmly filled, leaving 1 WR and 1 RB/WR/TE slot to fill from among these guys, whom I have all rated fairly close to one another:

WR J Maclin @BAL (note: I have TE Kelce also)
WR S Watkins @WAS
WR E Decker @DAL (probable, like he has been all year)
RB D Robinson vATL
WR B Cooks vDET

So, basically, any two from that list for this week. Season on the line, of course. I'd hate to see a 12-1 record go down the drain here to a far lesser (6-6-1) team, but that's how it goes in this dumbass game.

FBG gives a fairly modest edge to Maclin and Decker. I am waffling all over.

[bhlloy]

Marmel - I'd also pick up David Johnson and start him and DeAngelo. Don't see how you can trust Freeman the way the Falcons are playing. I'd put Hightower in over Freeman this week.

Quik - if Robinson is the starter I think I'd definitely flex him. Need to wait on the Yeldon news. And it's really close between the top 3 WR on your list, good luck picking that one.

[bhlloy]

OK, so in my serious league I have the Panthers as my every week defense who are up against the Giants this week, who are surprisingly not terrible as an opponent (6th in points given up in our scoring format)

I could either pick up Pittsburgh vs Denver or Tampa vs St. Louis which are both much better matchups - Osweiler gives up a ton of sacks and St. Louis is just awful. The blog/podcast I really trust has Carolina as a top 5 pick this week and both those defenses out of the top 12, which is stunning to me but makes me think. I do think the scoring format in our league rewards low yardage/points far more than standard which may be what is throwing them off. The league default projections (which I usually don't agree with but it's another data point and takes into account our scoring format) think the Bucs will get 4 points more than the Panthers FWIW.

Do I dance with the one I brought or switch to a less talented D but a far better matchup? I'm also 11-2, really don't want to blow the season on my first playoff tilt.

[Suicane75]

League semi finals, I have 3 RB spots to fill.

1. Jeremy Hill @ SF is a definite start.

For the next two spots I have a plethora of mediocre choices,
Bryce Brown & Christian Micheal Vs Cleveland
Mike Tolbert & Fozzy Whittaker @ Giants
Rashad Jennings Vs Carolina
Jay Ajai @SD
Tim Hightower Vs Detroit

I'm thinking if a feature back becomes clear for Seattle & Carolina, those are the ones I'll go with. Not sure that's gonna happen though.


Edit: Also, I'm probably overthinking this, but I have to start two QB's.

Brady Vs Tennessee
Wilson Vs Cleveland
Palmer @ Philly

Gotta go with Brady & Wilson right?

[bhlloy]

Hightower is a definite start. I'd probably lean Fozzy with the second spot. Genuinely no idea how that Seattle backfield is going to end up, but Fozzy should get the majority of snaps for the Panthers.

[stevew]

Tim Hightower is still a thing? Wow, I've been away from football for awhile.

[bhlloy]

He is when bits keep falling off all the other Saints running backs

[Vince, Pt. II]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

So I've got a bit of a quandary about my flex spot. Locks:

RB Freeman
RB Ivory
WR Beckham Jr.

Probably a lock:

WR Landry

Flex options:
RB David Johnson
WR Alshon Jeffery
WR John Brown

I'm leaning Jeffery @ Flex and Landry at WR, but Brown might be a good play. I also may be overthinking this.

The correct answer was obviously David Johnson. Hurts having him on the bench. I'm up 60, but he's got Brees, Hightower, and Calvin Johnson to my Ben Watson. I figure if Watson does anything, I'm probably set...but if Monday night turns into a shootout...blech.

[bhlloy]

I went with the Panthers defense and Miller/Lacy in my serious league and left White and Woodhead on the bench, so I feel your pain.

If Hightower stays under 14 points I'll scrape through based on Jones, ARobinson, Hopkins and Olsen (who have been the absolute strength of my team all year). Figure that's about a 50/50 shot, hoping for a complete shootout and Brees having to throw 50 passes to keep pace.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Okay, I have one. League semifinal game, no PPR, unconventional scoring but basically tracks what you'd expect.

Have 2 RB slots and 1 WR slot firmly filled, leaving 1 WR and 1 RB/WR/TE slot to fill from among these guys, whom I have all rated fairly close to one another:

WR J Maclin @BAL (note: I have TE Kelce also)
WR S Watkins @WAS
WR E Decker @DAL (probable, like he has been all year)
RB D Robinson vATL
WR B Cooks vDET

So, basically, any two from that list for this week. Season on the line, of course. I'd hate to see a 12-1 record go down the drain here to a far lesser (6-6-1) team, but that's how it goes in this dumbass game.

FBG gives a fairly modest edge to Maclin and Decker. I am waffling all over.

So, the good news is I used Sammy Watkins and Jeremy Maclin, and managed to avoid losing points due to a mistake there (Decker and Maclin were a draw, I think, and Robinson ended up beneath them both. I didn't seriously consider Cooks, so no worries there)

The bad news is I still lost, edged out by the monster David Johnson. So, for my 12-1 season and dominating point total, I get a warm handshake and a consolation price for winning my division, while the 6-7 (my mistake earlier) team goes to the finals. Love how he only got DJ by virtue of several other teams being asleep at the late season wheel. M.F.

[Butter]

Yeah, thanks to David Johnson and Jordan Reed's monster days, I have a 101 point lead heading into Monday night, where he has Drew Brees and Ben Watson.

Even when Nick Foles had that ridiculous 7 TD game a couple of years ago, that only scored 60 points, so I think I am safe. Will make the finals in my pay league for the first time, am pretty pumped about it.

[Marmel]

Originally Posted by cmp

Pickup Johnson and start him. It's a toss-up for me between DeAngelo and Devonta.

I went with your advice and cruised to a 147-63 victory and I am headed to the finals next week, so thanks!

I went with Deangelo, but it was a toss up with Devonta. My WRs killed it as did my KC defense scoring 2 TDs. Basically, it was a perfect week.

I am the 3 seed going up against the #1 seed next week. I lost to him by 1 point during the regular season. He only lost twice all year. I'll probably be back here mid week for some help! Did I mention this is my first fantasy league in over 10 years?

[molson]

(Moved this over from the NFL weekly thread)

Watkins was my MVP, getting me to the playoffs the last 4 weeks. He hasn't put up the stat line of Baldwin, but my league gives bonus points for 40+ yard plays, and Watkins has had a bunch of those.

This is the best fantasy team I've ever had, too bad it's not a cash league. 11 consecutive wins including the semi-final this week. Even though I drafted Eddie Lacy in the first round. I had Palmer and Roethlisberger to alternate at QB, McCoy and Ingram as my second/third round picks, and in-season overachiever fill-ins like Hurns, Diggs (for a while), and Barnridge, and even Buck Allen going nuts one week.

[stevew]

Beckham being suspended is going to screw up some fantasy super bowls.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by stevew

Beckham being suspended is going to screw up some fantasy super bowls.

Yes, mine!

[bhlloy]

So... had that first half touchdown not been called back for the illegal formation, that pointless catch and run by Hightower as time expired would have lost me the week and caused my TV to probably go out the window. As it was, scraped it by 5 and onto the final next week.

[Bobble]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

So... had that first half touchdown not been called back for the illegal formation, that pointless catch and run by Hightower as time expired would have lost me the week and caused my TV to probably go out the window. As it was, scraped it by 5 and onto the final next week.

That pointless catch by Hightower put me in the final. It was the wildest playoff game I've had in 25 seasons I think. (16-team PPR league, BTW), He has OBJ who got nothing in the first half and then he should have been thrown out but he came back to score a good day. Javorius Allen craps out negative points for me (fumbles are -2) which figures since I benched my first round pick Forte who scored big. His QB Yates gets knocked out early so we each have a gaping hole in the lineup. Sammy Watkins has me up 20 going into Monday night with Hightower for me and Cooks and Prater for him.

Then it's a rollercoaster Monday night with Cooks exploding to take a 1-point lead and Prater ready to put it away late in the game. He misses the FG but I'm still trailing by a point. N.O. is in throw mode, though, and Spiller has been on the field instead of Hightower. I decide to stay tuned for my bitter demise but Hightower catches a last play of the game meaningless screen pass for the game-changer. I don't think either of us wanted to have that kind of game heading into the final.