Survivor: Cagayan (Spoilers ahead!)

[Mota]

Also they made that fall from the tree a lot scarier in the preview than in the actual episode, I mean, it was 5 feet at the point where he actually fell?

Add me to the list of people that's not happy with the special idol. No risk in it's use, and that's what makes the idols exciting.

[EagleFan]

The only thing about the fall is that I figured it would be nothing since they basically showed you who fell. Usually if it is something that puts a person out of the game there is always a 'mystery' about the preview.

[EagleFan]

But I do agree, it was far from what it seemed in the preview.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Mota

Also they made that fall from the tree a lot scarier in the preview than in the actual episode, I mean, it was 5 feet at the point where he actually fell?

Add me to the list of people that's not happy with the special idol. No risk in it's use, and that's what makes the idols exciting.

Don't like the "special" idol either. I am fairly certain the idol had this power actually back in Survivor Cook Islands which in a way helped Yul walk to the finals. It may have had it in Survivor Panama as well but I'm not sure.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Racer

Don't like the "special" idol either. I am fairly certain the idol had this power actually back in Survivor Cook Islands which in a way helped Yul walk to the finals. It may have had it in Survivor Panama as well but I'm not sure.

I think that is the power it had the first couple times they used a hidden idol then they realized how overpowered it was.

[Simbo Klice]

I think I'm actually rooting for Tony from this point on. Even though he's a pathological liar, the moves he makes are strong, entertaining, and up until now have kept him at the top of the scrap heap.

[Draft Dodger]

at this point, it would be a pretty big upset if he doesn't make it to the final three.

however, he might have a tough time with the jury since he's screwed over most of them pretty hard

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Simbo Klice

I think I'm actually rooting for Tony from this point on. Even though he's a pathological liar, the moves he makes are strong, entertaining, and up until now have kept him at the top of the scrap heap.

He made his move at the perfect time. Even though Spencer was just trying to get in his head, I think once they got down to 5 the girls would have gone after him and Yuu. Now they can get to the final 4 2-2 and let the chips fall.

Originally Posted by Draft Dodger

at this point, it would be a pretty big upset if he doesn't make it to the final three.

however, he might have a tough time with the jury since he's screwed over most of them pretty hard

He has but this group seems less spiteful than most and will appreciate the moves he made. I think Spence could pose a threat and would love to see them both in the final 3. Spence would, and should, get a ton of credit for surviving this far. He has been my favorite player to watch so far.

[FrogMan]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Spence would, and should, get a ton of credit for surviving this far. He has been my favorite player to watch so far.

ditto, I'm rooting pretty hard for Spencer. For the crappy team he got stuck with, he's done well so far.

FM

[Draft Dodger]

also have to give it up to Tass though, for winning all those challenges. would like to root for her, but she seems to have the personality of toast and a complete lack of game playing at all

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Draft Dodger

also have to give it up to Tass though, for winning all those challenges. would like to root for her, but she seems to have the personality of toast and a complete lack of game playing at all

Not bidding on the clue at the auction was stupid. She would have had a 2-1 with spencer if one of them had won immunity, which they did.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Not bidding on the clue at the auction was stupid. She would have had a 2-1 with spencer if one of them had won immunity, which they did.

The last season that they would've seen is Caramoan and that food auction had both an immunity advantage and an idol clue. Not stupid at all for her to think that might happen again and if it did, she would've had no competition for it since she'd be the only person with $500 left.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

The last season that they would've seen is Caramoan and that food auction had both an immunity advantage and an idol clue. Not stupid at all for her to think that might happen again and if it did, she would've had no competition for it since she'd be the only person with $500 left.

I just think in their position its not worth the gamble. They increase their odds dramaticaly if one can get an idol, then they just need one to win the challange and they are both safe.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I just think in their position its not worth the gamble. They increase their odds dramaticaly if one can get an idol, then they just need one to win the challange and they are both safe.

I think to some extent, you are able to say this with 20/20 hindsight. Thanks to editing, we do not know exactly how things go there, but as far as I can tell, there is no indication of how long the bidding will go for.

When you are in a case of 2 vs everyone else, Tony drawing out both of their full wallets on one item would be a win for him. Then pretty much anything else left would be all to the alliance for whatever price they wanted to pay. This could include more food or clues or whatever.

I personally think she made the right play, just did not work out for her.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I just think in their position its not worth the gamble. They increase their odds dramaticaly if one can get an idol, then they just need one to win the challange and they are both safe.

But they didn't know it was the idol clue. Everyone thought it was the immunity advantage, even Tony. Tasha was actually waiting for an idol clue so they'd maximize their chances of getting both the advantage and the clue. I think you can only call her move stupid out of hindsight.

I'm pretty sure people would be calling Tasha stupid if she spent all her money to draw rocks and then another advantage popped up that neither her or Spencer could now afford.

[LloydLungs]

Man, Tony is playing about as hard as anyone's played Survivor. Probably he's overplaying, but the stupid drama-killing super-idol means he's already in the final 4. Still, I'm enjoying watching him play. He's like Russell Hantz if Russell was a happy person who wasn't horrible.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by LloydLungs

He's like Russell Hantz if Russell was a happy person who wasn't horrible.

Good comparason.

You get the sense Hantz is a dick in real life. I think Tony is probably a pretty good dude.

[Autumn]

Except pretty damn paranoid. It kind of scares me that he is a cop. He is incredibly quick to get crazy.

[Autumn]

I like to watch how Tony is really playing the game, willing to go without food to get the advantage, despite being on top of the game. I'm surprised there is not more movement to getting rid of him. Kass and Trish have to realize they're in trouble now, but it's probably too late to deal wtih him. This week would have been the good spot to try to blindside him (even not knowing he has the special idol).

In entertainment purposes he is hte perfect combination of knowing how to play the game, but just crazy enough that he could shoot himself in the foot. Watching Tash and Spencer play him this episode was fun. But Trish and Kass have to realize one of them is done for in that alliance, right? And neither of them will win if they go to the finals with Tony (unless they're hoping the jury just hates him).

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Except pretty damn paranoid. It kind of scares me that he is a cop. He is incredibly quick to get crazy.

goes with the job...imagine having a job where all day long, pretty one everyone you meet is lying to you...you get pretty cynical...couple that with no food and little sleep, and cynicism becomes paranoia

he is playing a really solid game, but i think he may have some issues with the jury...he has now back stabbed 3 of his own people that are sitting there...you never know if they will resent his play or respect it.

[Alan T]

At this point he pretty much has to double down on the backstabbing and hope that he can sell the "You may not like that I got you out, but I got you before you got me!" and convince the jury that no one else sitting next to him have done anything to deserve it, regardless of how likable they are.

For him to sell that, he probably needs to get rid of Spencer, possibly Tasha too, since she could sell herself on winning a ton of immunity challenges..

I think Kass is a good person for him to bring to the end, since he can simply say she doublecrossed half of the people there too, just like him but he did it better. I think the other one for him to bring to the end that makes sense would be Trish for the reasons that what she has done was more behind the scenes and others may not be aware of it.

[Draft Dodger]

yeah, I could definitely see a backlash similar to what we saw with coach a few seasons back. but then they had someone else competent could move their votes to. in the unlikely event that Spenser or Tasha make it to the final three, they could get votes, but I don't see any of the other players getting any votes except from LJ and the bitch cop

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I think the other one for him to bring to the end that makes sense would be Trish for the reasons that what she has done was more behind the scenes and others may not be aware of it.

trish has done something behind the scenes? aside from convince Jeffra (which lets be honest, probably isnt that hard) not to turn on tony, what else has she done besides annoy me for 46 minutes every wednesday

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by saldana

trish has done something behind the scenes? aside from convince Jeffra (which lets be honest, probably isnt that hard) not to turn on tony, what else has she done besides annoy me for 46 minutes every wednesday

I'm not sure that she has done much else. Sometimes it is tough to know what all happens in conversations that escapes the editing that we see. My impression was that she was the one that kept the girls with Tony for a few weeks longer. (actually benefiting Tony in the process).

Your response seems to indicate that you thought I was saying she was worthy of winning, which if that is how my messages read, then I am not being very clear. I absolutely don't think she has done enough to deserve it, and as I mentioned, I think she is the person Tony needs to bring to the end with him to win. I was simply saying, the stuff she had (how little or not) done likely won't sell well to the jury.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I'm not sure that she has done much else. Sometimes it is tough to know what all happens in conversations that escapes the editing that we see. My impression was that she was the one that kept the girls with Tony for a few weeks longer. (actually benefiting Tony in the process).

Your response seems to indicate that you thought I was saying she was worthy of winning, which if that is how my messages read, then I am not being very clear. I absolutely don't think she has done enough to deserve it, and as I mentioned, I think she is the person Tony needs to bring to the end with him to win. I was simply saying, the stuff she had (how little or not) done likely won't sell well to the jury.

i did think you were trying to say that she was worthy but others didnt know it because her actions werent known to everyone...my bad.

[Umbrella]

Tony can guarantee the final if he tells everyone about the special idol. They already know about the other idol. By telling everyone about the special idol, nobody would dare vote for him knowing it was a worthless vote.

The special idol is too powerful, and I hope this is something they get rid of next season.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Umbrella

Tony can guarantee the final if he tells everyone about the special idol. They already know about the other idol. By telling everyone about the special idol, nobody would dare vote for him knowing it was a worthless vote.

The special idol is too powerful, and I hope this is something they get rid of next season.

He can't guarantee himself the final because the idols can't be played at the last normal tribal council. So he can guarantee himself F4 (or F3 if there's a F2 this season). He likely will need to win that last individual immunity to win the game.

[Autumn]

Oh good point, I had forgotten about that. He hasn't shown much at the immunity challenges yet, so I'm not sure how good of a shot he has there.

[Autumn]

Me rousing the thread again.

Quite a back and forth in this episode. Kass isn't necessarily wrong about hte jury and Tony--based on the looks we see in council, he may not have any votes over there. But I think Kass is probably mistaken in thinking that it's a good idea for *her* to bring Tony to the final with her. Unless it's a final two, I think anybody else they bring with them would get the vote over the two of them, if the voters are voting based on likability. If the jury votes on who's played the best game, you cant bring Tony with you. If they're voting on who they can stand, Kass has to be just under Tony on that jury, right? She's pissed off nearly as many people. If Woo, Trish or Spencer are there with Tony and Kass, I have to think any of those three get the likability vote. So probably a big mistake there by Kass.

I was a little surprised Tony was wise enough to keep that idol under wraps at council. I was not surprised that Kass goaded him into revealing his secret idol, lol

[Suicane75]

Kass has become infinitely more annoying than Tony at this point. The whole time they were arguing I was thinking about the reunion episode and how much crow she's gonna have to eat when she finds out he didn't say anything about her.

[Draft Dodger]

yeah, Kass is delusional. There may be backlash against Tony, but those votes definitely will not swing to her.

[EagleFan]

I can't see Kass beating Tony head to head.

They should have coached Woo better and told him to tell Tony that they were trying to get him to vote Tony out. That way he wouldn't have been as suspicious as what Woo said which made no sense.

Can't figure out how they are ending this? I see one show next Wednesday which will get them down to 4. The usual Sunday finish would be 2 pepole voted out which in this case would mean a final 2. I see the finale for TAR the following Sunday though. Another Wednesday episode (or Wendesdy finale) or a week and a half off before the normal Sunday finale?

[Racer]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

I can't see Kass beating Tony head to head.

They should have coached Woo better and told him to tell Tony that they were trying to get him to vote Tony out. That way he wouldn't have been as suspicious as what Woo said which made no sense.

Can't figure out how they are ending this? I see one show next Wednesday which will get them down to 4. The usual Sunday finish would be 2 pepole voted out which in this case would mean a final 2. I see the finale for TAR the following Sunday though. Another Wednesday episode (or Wendesdy finale) or a week and a half off before the normal Sunday finale?

Season finale is on Wednesday March 21 this season.

[B & B]

Originally Posted by Racer

Season finale is on Wednesday March 21 this season.

Oh shit doc, fire up the delorean!

[Maple Leafs]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

I can't see Kass beating Tony head to head.

I can't stand her, but I'm terrified she's going to win based on how often they replayed Spencer's whole "Kass... no chance of winning" soundbite earlier in the season.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by B & B

Oh shit doc, fire up the delorean!

[EagleFan]

Kas is starting to grow on me.

[EagleFan]

Surprising tribal.

Why didn't Jeff say this was the last time to use the idol? Hasn't he always said that?

[saldana]

I can't imagine they will let Tony use an idol to get to final tribal, but I also noticed Jeff didn't say anything...if Tony couldn't use it next week, then he screwed up...He could have given the normal one to trish

[larrymcg421]

Well if it's a Final 2 this season, which is what it looks like to me, then Tony can use it at the next tribal with 4 people left but not at the last one with 3 people left.

Also, Tony wouldn't have saved Trish with his idol because he actually voted for Trish. I'm not sure why he did that, but it was actually 4-1.

[EagleFan]

The preview on the channel guide says there is only one elimination and a final three. That might be pointing to one explosive final tribal.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

The preview on the channel guide says there is only one elimination and a final three. That might be pointing to one explosive final tribal.

Well if it is a final three, then I really hope he can't play his idol next week. It would make that idol an even worse idea if he can play it to get to the end. Then again, the last time they used this idol (Yul's season), the idol was still eligible at the Final 4 when it was a Final 3 going to the jury. I would really, really hate if that happens.

Thinking over the final three scenarios...

Spencer/Tony/Woo - Spencer wins
Spencer/Tony/Kass - Spencer wins
Spencer/Kass/Woo - Spencer wins (unanimously)
Tony/Kass/Woo - Tony wins

Tony has to get Spencer out.

[korme]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Kas is starting to grow on me.

Like a tumor

[Suicane75]

Half the time I want to punch Kass in the face, and the other half of the time I'm trying very hard to suppress a boner I don't want to get. It's like 8th grade English all over again.

[EagleFan]

Tony got on my nerves the most this past show, getting all pissy because someone was phasing the game against him. But then he makes the dumbest move and votes out a lock of an ally and someone that couldn't win. I think Kas may have won a couple votes recently with the way she is playing Tony. He is part of a solid two if he keeps Trish in the game.

[Alan T]

The only thing that I can think is that Tony is trying to base the final 3 by counting votes from the jury rather than the level of quality of his competition. Absolutely Trish wouldn't get any votes next to him, but I think he is worried that if he can't get Spencer out he needs more solid votes from the Jury and Trish likely will be a solid vote for him.

I think personally that you guys are right and he should try to keep Trish/Woo as his final 3, but that is the only thing that i can think could be the reason for voting for her.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

The only thing that I can think is that Tony is trying to base the final 3 by counting votes from the jury rather than the level of quality of his competition. Absolutely Trish wouldn't get any votes next to him, but I think he is worried that if he can't get Spencer out he needs more solid votes from the Jury and Trish likely will be a solid vote for him.

I think personally that you guys are right and he should try to keep Trish/Woo as his final 3, but that is the only thing that i can think could be the reason for voting for her.

Interesting thought

[larrymcg421]

In that case, he should've studied how nice Trish was to Spencer when she was going off on Kass. She seemed to respect Spencer's gameplay and didn't mind he was plotting against her. I don't think she's a definite vote for Tony, especially now that he voted her out.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

In that case, he should've studied how nice Trish was to Spencer when she was going off on Kass. She seemed to respect Spencer's gameplay and didn't mind he was plotting against her. I don't think she's a definite vote for Tony, especially now that he voted her out.

My assumption is that she does not know he voted her out. Those aren't revealed until after the season right?

Either way though, I still don't think he has enough people on the jury that "likes" him to try to win that way. So I still think his best path would be to have Spencer gone.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Alan T

My assumption is that she does not know he voted her out. Those aren't revealed until after the season right?

Either way though, I still don't think he has enough people on the jury that "likes" him to try to win that way. So I still think his best path would be to have Spencer gone.

Jeff will always read the votes in the most suspenseful way and reads all the votes that matter. So if the vote was 3-2, he would've read them to make it 2-2 and drum up the suspense for the final vote. He's never read them 3-1 when there's a 2nd vote out there for the other person. Of course she might not know that, but the next person who gets voted out could tell her about Tony's betrayal.

I don't think Tony has to worry about jury votes. If he's against Spencer, he loses. If he's not against Spencer, he wins.

As for Kass, what votes do people think she's getting? I mean, Spencer, Tasha, Sarah, Morgan, Jeremiah, and Trish are 100% not voting for her.