2009 NFL Draft Thread(Stafford goes #1 to the Lions)

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I may be in the minority, but the Lions did exactly what I would have done in their shoes. Quarterback was the only position worth the amount of cash they had to spend in the #1 spot, no one was going to trade up this year, and Stafford is the best quarterback in this draft.

People always like to find faults in the top guys in the draft and overscrutinize them, but Stafford is a guy that has all the tools and won 30 games (while playing in the SEC) in 3-years. Folks can criticize the 2008 Georgia team, but they broke in an almost completely new offensive line.

I think Schwartz is a pretty cerebral guy and will be able to develop Stafford's game, specifically taking care of the ball. Hopefully, they'll get him a couple of linemen to help protect him and I think he'll be a good starter within a few years.

The Lions fucking need defense first!!! They have some tools on offense - Calvin Johnson, Kevin Smith, and uh, yeah. But on defense they have NOTHING other than Ernie Sims who isn't even a pro-bowl type. Dwayne White is an ok starter, but that's it.

This is a huge mistake and waste of much needed cap money. Awful.

[DaddyTorgo]

it's because they were the "sexy QB's" of that year and when there's no other option that becomes the "consensus #1 pick"

as far as teams passing on their #1 picks - wouldn't the first guy who ended up being drafted then just declare through his agent that he wanted 1.1 money?

not to worry though - both the owners and the players association are in favor of a rookie wage-scale so i'm 99.9% certain it will get done

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by JohnnyBGood

OS poster here who has been lurking FOFC for a while.

I was thinking the other day about the ridiculous nature of rookie contracts, mainly at the top of the draft (Top 5 picks). With details of this new Stafford contract, if a wage-scale is not put in place at the next CBA and rookie contracts continue to grow at this nauseating exponential rate, how long is it until we start seeing teams in the top-5 PASSING on their picks? Remember what the Vikings did (by accident) years ago? I think that becomes a legitimate strategy for teams who don't want the burden of those top-5 pick contracts, assuming that no one actually wants to trade for them (thats becoming more and more likely).

Also, Stafford has got to be the worst #1 pick in some time. We are talking about a guy who wasn't even particularly good in college. What is going on with these monumental reaches at pick #1? This will be the 3rd time in 5 years where a player who is arguably not even in the Top-10 most talented in the draft-pool goes number one (JaMarcus Russell, Alex Smith, and now Stafford). It seems like all 3 of these guys were "consensus" #1 picks, but no one could even really give a good or legitimate explanation as to why (except that there is a premium for QBs); it was just assumed. It seems like most teams wouldn't even want them and scouts didn't even think they were very good.

It seems like the NFLPA is ready to put a stop to the ridiculous contracts in their next agreement. Hopefully, it will be a la the NBA's slotted draft system. I would guess it will be pretty easy to get the PA to agree to something like that, as long as it doesn't lower the overall salary cap. It is always easy to cut the salaries of the guys that are not yet part of the organization.

[MajikMan77]

Not who I'd have taken (Curry) but good luck to him and the Lions, they sure do need it

[Schmidty]

Man, I am still reeling. I am disgusted.

They probably won't even play him this because they want to "season" him, which basically means another 2-3 years of suffering. That also buys the losers in charge (Mayhew and Lewand) another grace period.

I don't know how much more I can take. I might even do the unthinkable for the first time since moving out here - not get Sunday Ticket.

[JonInMiddleGA]

LMAO at the Lions. They didn't draft the next Ryan Leaf but they did just draft the second coming of Eric Zeier, and with the #1 pick overall to boot. At this point, they've gone from funny to sad and now back to funny.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

The Lions fucking need defense first!!! They have some tools on offense - Calvin Johnson, Kevin Smith, and uh, yeah. But on defense they have NOTHING other than Ernie Sims who isn't even a pro-bowl type. Dwayne White is an ok starter, but that's it.

This is a huge mistake and waste of much needed cap money. Awful.

Who do you take, though?

You can say Aaron Curry, but do you really want to pay an outside linebacker, who had less than 10 sacks during his collegiate career, $7-9M per year for his first 5 years in the NFL? There have only been 2 linebackers drafted in the top 5 picks of the draft in the past 10 seasons (AJ Hawk -- almost certainly not worth it; LaVar Arrington -- was maybe worth it) and less than a dozen taken in the top 10 over the past 10 years. Leaguewide, Linebackers' salaries are nowhere near the neighborhood of what players get in the top 5 of the draft -- the production and impact is just not worth it.

Do Tyson Jackson, B.J. Raji, or Brian Orakpo seem like guys that dominated at the college level, should be making $7-10M per year, and/or you feel confident in anchoring your defense for the next 5-10 years? Orakpo and Jackson, at least, play premium positions (if they both end up at DE), but I don't see how they are anymore of a "sure thing" than Stafford could be considered.

There are really no dominating defensive players in the draft (at premium positions).

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by mckerney

Report: Lions To Use No. 1 Pick In NFL Draft On Ryan Leaf | The Onion - America's Finest News Source

DETROIT—Reports coming out of the Detroit Lions camp indicate that the organization is set to make retired NFL quarterback Ryan Leaf the first pick in the 2009 NFL Draft. According to Lions general manager Martin Mayhew, Leaf, who in his brief four-year career threw 14 touchdowns and 36 interceptions for three NFL teams, is exactly what Detroit needs. "You can build an organization around Ryan Leaf," Mayhew told reporters, adding that Wake Forest linebacker Aaron Curry, Georgia quarterback Matthew Stafford, and Baylor offensive tackle Jason Smith lack Leaf's professional experience. "We think the people of Detroit are going to go crazy when Roger Goodell calls Ryan Leaf's name this Saturday." Leaf told reporters he hadn't even been notified by the Lions about their decision, but when asked if he would play for the struggling team, he responded, "Sure, okay."

Post #61 says hi.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

LMAO at the Lions. They didn't draft the next Ryan Leaf but they did just draft the second coming of Eric Zeier, and with the #1 pick overall to boot. At this point, they've gone from funny to sad and now back to funny.

Yeah, thanks fuckhead.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Who do you take, though?

You can say Aaron Curry, but do you really want to pay an outside linebacker, who had less than 10 sacks during his collegiate career, $7-9M per year for his first 5 years in the NFL? There have only been 2 linebackers drafted in the top 5 picks of the draft in the past 10 seasons (AJ Hawk -- almost certainly not worth it; LaVar Arrington -- was maybe worth it) and less than a dozen taken in the top 10 over the past 10 years. Leaguewide, Linebackers' salaries are nowhere near the neighborhood of what players get in the top 5 of the draft -- the production and impact is just not worth it.

Do Tyson Jackson, B.J. Raji, or Brian Orakpo seem like guys that dominated at the college level, should be making $7-10M per year, and/or you feel confident in anchoring your defense for the next 5-10 years? Orakpo and Jackson, at least, play premium positions (if they both end up at DE), but I don't see how they are anymore of a "sure thing" than Stafford could be considered.

There are really no dominating defensive players in the draft (at premium positions).

yet another argument for the slotted draft pick system - that way teams are drafting based on actual need and player talent versus comparing the salary they'd have to pay to that position down the line

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Yeah, thanks fuckhead.

Sorry Schmidty, but if they're going to make this guy the highest paid #1 draft pick in the history of the NFL then it's hard to pity them instead of just laughing at them.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Who do you take, though?

You can say Aaron Curry, but do you really want to pay an outside linebacker, who had less than 10 sacks during his collegiate career, $7-9M per year for his first 5 years in the NFL? There have only been 2 linebackers drafted in the top 5 picks of the draft in the past 10 seasons (AJ Hawk -- almost certainly not worth it; LaVar Arrington -- was maybe worth it) and less than a dozen taken in the top 10 over the past 10 years. Leaguewide, Linebackers' salaries are nowhere near the neighborhood of what players get in the top 5 of the draft -- the production and impact is just not worth it.

Do Tyson Jackson, B.J. Raji, or Brian Orakpo seem like guys that dominated at the college level, should be making $7-10M per year, and/or you feel confident in anchoring your defense for the next 5-10 years? Orakpo and Jackson, at least, play premium positions (if they both end up at DE), but I don't see how they are anymore of a "sure thing" than Stafford could be considered.

There are really no dominating defensive players in the draft (at premium positions).

From what I read, Curry was willing to take almost 30 mil less over the course of the deal than Staffuck, and he's the better, more impactful player.

I don't care what anyone says - Unless Stafford makes more than 5-6 pro bowls, this was an awful pick. Period.

[Passacaglia]

I'm with Swaggs here. You're in the #1 spot, you take the (potentially) franchise QB you can get (if you don't have one). Even if Curry is awesome, he's not going to be the type of guy you can build a team around.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Sorry Schmidty, but if they're going to make this guy the highest paid #1 draft pick in the history of the NFL then it's hard to pity them instead of just laughing at them.

I know, but it's still my team, and it blows. It's like there's never any hope.

I miss Wayne "the Big Buck" Fontes.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I'm with Swaggs here. You're in the #1 spot, you take the (potentially) franchise QB you can get (if you don't have one). Even if Curry is awesome, he's not going to be the type of guy you can build a team around.

Ray Lewis.

Case and point.

[Lathum]

I think Lions fans have a right to their opinions, but after YEARS of horrible management you would think they would give the new regime the benefit of the doubt.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I think Lions fans have a right to their opinions, but after YEARS of horrible management you would think they would give the new regime the benefit of the doubt.

I love you Lathum, but you are not a Lions fan and have no fucking idea about what you are saying.

After a million regime changes, we can feel how we want to.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

I love you Lathum, but you are not a Lions fan and have no fucking idea about what you are saying.

After a million regime changes, we can feel how we want to.

of course you can, and I mean, I am sure the guys who get paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to watch hundreds of hours of video have nothing on the scouting skills of joe fan.

[Lathum]

dola- I love you to

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Lathum

of course you can, and I mean, I am sure the guys who get paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to watch hundreds of hours of video have nothing on the scouting skills of joe fan.

If they think Stafford is worth that kind of money then no, they don't.

Meanwhile, I think I just had a post vanish. I was just saying that it gets even funnier when you think about a guy who has basically been singled out by (now former) teammates for not being able to lead starving dogs to fresh meat is supposed to somehow become the savior of an NFL franchise.

[Lathum]

I really don't care, I just want to fuck with Schmidty

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I really don't care, I just want to fuck with Schmidty

Sorry, I don't love you THAT much pal.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Sorry, I don't love you THAT much pal.

what if I pretend I'm Jeff Garcia?

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

From what I read, Curry was willing to take almost 30 mil less over the course of the deal than Staffuck, and he's the better, more impactful player.

I don't care what anyone says - Unless Stafford makes more than 5-6 pro bowls, this was an awful pick. Period.

Well, if you have a guarantee that Curry is going to be as good as Lewis, that is a fine way to look at it. But, that is pretty much the absolute best case scenario and pretty unlikely.

Equally unlikely (and probably moreso, even), is that Stafford becomes an Elway/Brady/Montana multi-Super Bowl winning QB. Which is pretty much the point -- a great quarterback is much more impactful than a great linebacker (and Curry is probably going to be a non-pass rushing OLB, based on his track record).

If everything else on the team is equal, wouldn't you rather have a very good or even better than average quarterback than a very good or better than average linebacker? Which one would be more likely to win games for you?

If you want a linebacker and a quarterback out of your two first round drafts, I think I'd much rather have something Stafford and Maualauga than Curry and Freeman?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

If everything else on the team is equal, wouldn't you rather have a very good or even better than average quarterback than a very good or better than average linebacker?

But a $30 mil difference makes it hard to say everything else is "equal".

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Lathum

what if I pretend I'm Jeff Garcia?

I'm a sucker for a Moon Ball, so YESSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

If you want a linebacker and a quarterback out of your two first round drafts, I think I'd much rather have something Stafford and Maualauga than Curry and Freeman?

That's what everyone's saying, and I'd be fine with that. Curry is still a huge step above Mauluguguguguaaggag (from what I've seen), and Freeman has as much potential and tools as Stafford, but he's cheaper.

I don't know. I hope it works out, but I think the Lions went with "sexy" instead of smart. Same old, same old.

[stevew]

fixed it for you schmidty

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Who do you take, though?

You can say Aaron Curry, but do you really want to pay an outside linebacker, who had less than 10 sacks during his collegiate career, $7-9M per year for his first 5 years in the NFL? There have only been 2 linebackers drafted in the top 5 picks of the draft in the past 10 seasons (AJ Hawk -- almost certainly not worth it; LaVar Arrington -- was maybe worth it) and less than a dozen taken in the top 10 over the past 10 years. Leaguewide, Linebackers' salaries are nowhere near the neighborhood of what players get in the top 5 of the draft -- the production and impact is just not worth it.

Do Tyson Jackson, B.J. Raji, or Brian Orakpo seem like guys that dominated at the college level, should be making $7-10M per year, and/or you feel confident in anchoring your defense for the next 5-10 years? Orakpo and Jackson, at least, play premium positions (if they both end up at DE), but I don't see how they are anymore of a "sure thing" than Stafford could be considered.

There are really no dominating defensive players in the draft (at premium positions).

Agreed. I couldn't see how anyone was going to take Curry and make him the top paid linebacker in the game. I mean, he's probably going to be great, but still.

If you gotta blow a load at #1, QB seems like a good idea. Even if it's this particular one.

[Neuqua]

I always enjoy angry whiney Schmidty.

[Logan]

I'm most excited about the draft starting at 4 est. It's gonna be beautiful here tomorrow, mid 80s. I won't feel like as much of a loser when I sit and watch the draft for 5 hours straight if I'm doing so after being in Central Park all day.

[Swaggs]

Here are the top 15 salaries and cap hits for quarterbacks (keep in mind that Eli, Big Ben, and Rivers were still on the rookie deals at that point) and linebackers.

2008 QB

Player Team Base Salary Sign Bonus Other Bonus Total Salary Cap Value
Manning, Peyton Colts $ 11,500,000 $ 0 $ 4,320 $ 11,504,320 $ 18,704,320
Brady, Tom Patriots $ 5,000,000 $ 5,280,000 $ 3,001,320 $ 8,001,320 $ 14,621,320
Palmer, Carson Bengals $ 7,750,000 $ 0 $ 0 $ 7,750,000 $ 13,980,001
Manning, Eli Giants $ 8,450,000 $ 900,000 $ 1,500,000 $ 9,950,000 $ 12,916,666
Favre, Brett Jets $ 12,000,000 $ 0 $ 0 $ 12,000,000 $ 12,000,000
Delhomme, Jake Panthers $ 3,690,000 $ 0 $ 2,500,000 $ 6,190,000 $ 10,956,666
Hasselbeck, Matt Seahawks $ 5,750,000 $ 16,000,000 $ 1,004,200 $ 6,754,200 $ 9,954,200
Smith, Alex D. (QB) 49ers $ 2,300,000 $ 8,000,000 $ 1,500,000 $ 11,800,000 $ 9,916,262
Garrard, David Jaguars $ 2,975,000 $ 0 $ 6,731,720 $ 9,706,720 $ 9,506,720
McNabb, Donovan Eagles $ 6,300,000 $ 13,500,000 $ 1,920 $ 6,301,920 $ 9,355,832
Bulger, Marc Rams $ 7,000,000 $ 12,000,000 $ 2,400 $ 7,002,400 $ 9,002,400
Brees, Drew Saints $ 4,800,000 $ 8,000,000 $ 200,000 $ 5,000,000 $ 9,000,000
Roethlisberger, Ben Steelers $ 2,500,000 $ 25,200,000 $ 1,920 $ 27,701,920 $ 7,971,920
Rivers, Philip Chargers $ 5,750,000 $ 0 $ 3,630,040 $ 9,380,040 $ 7,630,040
Warner, Kurt Cardinals $ 4,000,000 $ 3,000,000 $ 4,004,320 $ 8,004,320 $ 6,004,320

2008 LB
Player Team Base Salary Sign Bonus Other Bonus Total Salary Cap Value
Lewis, Ray Ravens $ 6,500,000 $ 10,000,000 $ 240 $ 6,500,240 $ 9,428,814
Dansby, Karlos Cardinals $ 8,065,000 $ 0 $ 1,680 $ 8,066,680 $ 8,066,680
Brooking, Keith Falcons $ 4,900,000 $ 2,700,000 $ 850,000 $ 5,750,000 $ 7,942,226
Bulluck, Keith Titans $ 4,250,000 $ 9,710,000 $ 2,003,720 $ 6,253,720 $ 7,862,388
Porter, Joey Dolphins $ 4,800,000 $ 12,000,000 $ 400,000 $ 5,200,000 $ 7,400,000
Peterson, Julian Seahawks $ 3,500,000 $ 11,500,000 $ 1,501,800 $ 5,001,800 $ 7,301,800
Phillips, Shaun Chargers $ 2,400,000 $ 7,000,000 $ 3,300,000 $ 5,700,000 $ 6,637,912
Washington, Marcus Redskins $ 4,425,000 $ 3,415,000 $ 0 $ 4,425,000 $ 6,445,416
Witherspoon, Will Rams $ 4,000,000 $ 9,000,000 $ 3,120 $ 4,003,120 $ 5,803,120
Urlacher, Brian Bears $ 1,589,285 $ 2,500,000 $ 50,000 $ 4,139,285 $ 5,725,509
Scott, Bart Ravens $ 3,400,000 $ 6,500,000 $ 2,640 $ 3,402,640 $ 5,569,308
Greenwood, Morlon Texans $ 4,017,000 $ 0 $ 200,000 $ 4,217,000 $ 5,517,000
Briggs, Lance Bears $ 805,000 $ 4,000,000 $ 4,000,000 $ 8,805,000 $ 5,471,666
Thomas, Adalius Patriots $ 900,000 $ 12,000,000 $ 106,720 $ 1,006,720 $ 5,406,720
Okeafor, Chike Cardinals $ 4,500,000 $ 4,500,000 $ 4,440 $ 4,504,440 $ 5,404,440

Now, obviously salary doesn't equal how good a player is, but look over the list and compare the quarterbacks with their counterparts on the linebacker list. You obviously have to pay much more for a good/great quarterback than a good/great linebacker. Overall, NFL QBs average around $2M per year and linebackers average around $1.2M and there has to be a reason for that. It is because, w/ all else equal, having Peyton Manning and a league average linebacker, your team will win more games than if you have Ray Lewis and a league average quarterback. That is why teams continue to draft quarterbacks in the top five and rarely (re: twice in the past 10 drafts) take linebackers.

If you are afraid to take a guy like Stafford, who has played quarterback at a very high level against top-notch opposition, won, AND has pretty remarkable physical tools, so that you can take a guy like Curry, who has played linebacker at a very high level against top-notch oppostion, (mostly) won, and has pretty remarkable physical tools, then you are probably just afraid of failing and should not be running a football team.

Curry is just as likely to be a $9M flop of an outside linebacker as Stafford is of becoming a $12M flop of a quarterback. And, you can always play Curry w/ 2 or 3 other linebackers and hide your mistake much easier than you can with a quarterback. But, again if you are not afraid of F-ing up the pick, you get a much, much higher reward if Stafford turns into the best case than if Curry does. That is the bottom line to me.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

But a $30 mil difference makes it hard to say everything else is "equal".

What are the two sets of terms for the players? I cannot seem to find the numbers that they were throwing around for Curry a few days ago.

I don't believe it is realistically a guaranteed $30M difference, unless Stafford were to hit all of his incentives and Curry were to hit none of his. Regardless, if Stafford were to hit all of his incentives, I doubt anyone would have a problem with the amount of money he makes from them.

[Tigercat]

Originally Posted by JohnnyBGood

OS poster here who has been lurking FOFC for a while.

I was thinking the other day about the ridiculous nature of rookie contracts, mainly at the top of the draft (Top 5 picks). With details of this new Stafford contract, if a wage-scale is not put in place at the next CBA and rookie contracts continue to grow at this nauseating exponential rate, how long is it until we start seeing teams in the top-5 PASSING on their picks? Remember what the Vikings did (by accident) years ago? I think that becomes a legitimate strategy for teams who don't want the burden of those top-5 pick contracts, assuming that no one actually wants to trade for them (thats becoming more and more likely).

Also, Stafford has got to be the worst #1 pick in some time. We are talking about a guy who wasn't even particularly good in college. What is going on with these monumental reaches at pick #1? This will be the 3rd time in 5 years where a player who is arguably not even in the Top-10 most talented in the draft-pool goes number one (JaMarcus Russell, Alex Smith, and now Stafford). It seems like all 3 of these guys were "consensus" #1 picks, but no one could even really give a good or legitimate explanation as to why (except that there is a premium for QBs); it was just assumed. It seems like most teams wouldn't even want them and scouts didn't even think they were very good.

Agree with your first part, but Stafford and Russell have natural arm strength and accuracy that eclipse any QB drafted in the NFL since John Elway. Of course, you can have the god given ability to sling the ball long and quickly and to any part of the field, but that alone doesn't make a good NFL QB. Who knows how a QB will pan out. Reggie Bush didn't prove in college that he could be a between the tackles runner, but that doesn't mean he wasn't worth a top 3 pick in the draft. It is all about the talent, and Russell and Stafford certainly have it in spades. Now Alex Smith, on the other hand....

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by Logan

Kinda like how Mangini and the new Browns GM seem to want nothing to do with Quinn...and the prior regime used a first on him.

And they are dumb for it. I would love to be a Browns fan if they weren't just a slight upgrade from the Lions in terms of decisions.

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I may be in the minority, but the Lions did exactly what I would have done in their shoes. Quarterback was the only position worth the amount of cash they had to spend in the #1 spot, no one was going to trade up this year, and Stafford is the best quarterback in this draft.

He's debatable in terms of being the best QB. I think the biggest knock against Sanchez really is lack of experience as where Stafford has got three years behind him. Freeman probably has the most upswing, but he needs enough development he could very easily not pan out so it's why he's looking to be drafted by the Jets. You also assume the other draft picks would have asked for that kind of money and we know that to be at least partly false.

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

it's because they were the "sexy QB's" of that year and when there's no other option that becomes the "consensus #1 pick"

as far as teams passing on their #1 picks - wouldn't the first guy who ended up being drafted then just declare through his agent that he wanted 1.1 money?

not to worry though - both the owners and the players association are in favor of a rookie wage-scale so i'm 99.9% certain it will get done

1. And that's the problem. People go, "Oh look, he has a strong arm, so we must draft them for it." Ask Bill Walsh about big armed QBs and if that's the trait he looks at first.

2. No, Stafford raped them for what he could. No clue on if Smith would have done the same thing, but Curry was a lock to be a cheaper.

3. And amen. This has to be one of the bigger issues when they redo the contract. The number one pick is an albatross that few teams really want. Funny how the Lions might be the last team stuck with such an issue.

Originally Posted by Schmidty

That's what everyone's saying, and I'd be fine with that. Curry is still a huge step above Mauluguguguguaaggag (from what I've seen), and Freeman has as much potential and tools as Stafford, but he's cheaper.

I don't know. I hope it works out, but I think the Lions went with "sexy" instead of smart. Same old, same old.

(nods head) I doubt they get Freeman because he won't last that long, but a mid first rounder would have worked just as well. You don't drop 1.1 money on a QB unless it's name has Manning at the end. It's been a long time since that hasn't been true. Oddly enough LBs tend to not go 1.1 as well. I read on SI that Bill B. kind of has an unspoken rule that you don't draft a LB in the top 10 and Mayo was actually them going outside of that. OL in a solid OL draft? Hell yeah.

[Cringer]

Lets take a look at what some of the FOFC "experts" said in last years draft thread about Atlanta taking Matt Ryan shall we? Like I, you may notice some similar comments (and yes, some come from the same people ripping Stafford this year)......

If that's the pick, not a bit. Who wants to pay that kind of cash to watch the next big QB bust?

If the Falcons don't trade down, this group of idiots running the show is no better than the previous group of idiots.

edit to add: And I'm not sure which pick would be worse at #3 - Ryan to bust or Dorsey to spend half his first contract injured. He's been dinged up since his senior season in high school for crying out loud.

Atlanta already has a ton of draft picks (I think 3 in round 2), so I'm not sure what trading down will really accomplish for thim. I agree with JimGa that both Dorsey and Ryan are risky picks, but ... who else would you argue for at 3?

Finally someone who has Ryan dropping like the rock he should. This guy has Brady Quinn all over again written all over him. He seems like a player with talent, but Top Five? If a team takes him there over several of these other players who are clearly better, then they are overreaching and guaranteeing themselves a poor draft.

Matt Ryan is a pretty good QB but he is not in my opinion a top-10 QB however Brian Brohm I think is going to be a better pro because his accuracy is the best of the QB's in this class as well as next years.

It's not really about him. Ryan is as good as he is. He seems like a middling talent to me, not a star. I mean, 32 INTs in the last two years? That's the best QB in this draft? Whispers of Rex Grossman and Kyle Boller echo in my ears--and they had better final seasons.

Ryan probably won't be that bad, but a Top Five QB should be a McNabb, Manning, Palmer, etc. He is definitely none of those guys, IMO.

Matt Ryan played for a good team, one of his lineman is likely to be a first round pick. That's just nonsense. He's an ok prospect, but not really any different from guys like Kyle Boller, Aaron Rodgers, etc. Its actually pretty hard to tell why he's scouted higher than John David Booty, never mind Brian Brohm.

I don't even think he's a first round QB...in two games against VT last season (the best defense he saw...and not even close to being as good as your typical NFL defense), he combined to go 58/104 for 590 yards, 2 TD and 4 INT. The only thing that stood out about those two games was the last minute drive during the first meeting and that was as much about busted coverage as it was about Ryan.

If the Falcons take Ryan at #3, that'll solidify my idea that the old idiots running the show were just replaced by newer idiots.

The folks over on one of the larger Falcons message boards are threatening bloody murder if the team takes Ryan.

Matt Ryan, 3rd overall ... and he'll have a less productive NFL career than Joey Harrington.

Write it down.

Keep hating Stafford though, it's all his fault he is picked #1 overall and has already shown he can't play in the NFL.

[stevew]

If/when they create a rookie scale, I'd guess that one thing the owners will have to give up is the ability to go 5 or 6 years on a player. I think the NBA rookie cap was at least inspired by Glenn Robinson signing a 10 year 70m deal.

Perhaps the absurd amount of money paid to Stafford will finally be the push to start one in the NFL.

If you were going to make the scale, numbers go something like

1.1 5-50(no more than 30m guaranteed)
1.2 5-45(25m)
1.3 5-40(20m)
1.4 5-35(17m)
1.5 5-33(15m)
1.6 5-31(13m)

and so on. 1.32 getting something like 4-8(3m guaranteed)

Plus allow teams to deviate 20 percent from their slot, much like the NBA does.

[Lathum]

I have to say I am a lucky man, my wife is actually excited to watch the draft tomorrow

[Lathum]

Cringer, that is awesome

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Cringer

Keep hating Stafford though, it's all his fault he is picked #1 overall and has already shown he can't play in the NFL.

Don't confuse hating Stafford with laughing at the Lions. Don't get me wrong,
I despise the sumbitch because of where he played his college ball but if he can con somebody into this kind of cash God bless him & more power to him for doing so.

That's on the Lions, not on Stafford.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Cringer

Lets take a look at what some of the FOFC "experts" said in last years draft thread about Atlanta taking Matt Ryan shall we? Like I, you may notice some similar comments (and yes, some come from the same people ripping Stafford this year)......



Keep hating Stafford though, it's all his fault he is picked #1 overall and has already shown he can't play in the NFL.

As the board's resident BC-alum I laugh at all the Matt Ryan haters from last year!

[Karlifornia]

To be fair, Matt Ryan has only one season of NFL play under his belt. Granted, he had a rookie season that most QB's dream of.

But, as the Wolf from Pulp Fiction says "Let's not start sucking each others' dicks just yet, gentlemen."

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

If you are afraid to take a guy like Stafford, who has played quarterback at a very high level against top-notch opposition, won, AND has pretty remarkable physical tools, so that you can take a guy like Curry, who has played linebacker at a very high level against top-notch oppostion, (mostly) won, and has pretty remarkable physical tools, then you are probably just afraid of failing and should not be running a football team.

Well said. My feelings have always been that the Lions needed to take who they thought was the best QB or LT with the pick. Really the only other times it's worth drafting another position number one is if you have an athletic freak such as Julius Peppers or Calvin Johnson at DE or WR. No way Curry or any other linebacker should ever go number one. A.J. Hawk and Robert Gallery were both "safe" picks. Neither one has been worth a top 5 pick.

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by Cringer

Lets take a look at what some of the FOFC "experts" said in last years draft thread about Atlanta taking Matt Ryan shall we? Like I, you may notice some similar comments (and yes, some come from the same people ripping Stafford this year)......Keep hating Stafford though, it's all his fault he is picked #1 overall and has already shown he can't play in the NFL.

The Falcons were going through the Vick debacle and the closest thing they had to a young gun was D.J. Shockley. Ryan came across as a leader based on his play at BC. Stafford comes across as a guy who is good if his team wants to be good, and bad if his team is mailing it in. So I would say he comes across as a person who lacks that certain "it" factor for me. I'm really gonna be curious to see if he's going to go in there and try to carry this team on his back when he needs to because he's going to have to do it a lot.

I'll add more fodder for you guys to toss at me later. USC's offense wasn't known as being anything special this past year, but Sanchez and that offense did rather well against what was considered a top notch defense in PSU. Stafford and Georgia mailed in much of their performance against a rather lackluster MSU team. Georgia should have smoked that team, but they didn't. Where's Stafford's leadership skills that make it happen?

Originally Posted by Racer

No way Curry or any other linebacker should ever go number one. A.J. Hawk and Robert Gallery were both "safe" picks. Neither one has been worth a top 5 pick.

The safe pick to me means the guy already has the least holes, but likely has little upside to his game. If he does have potential, then they aren't labeling him "the safest pick." It's like in FOF before the popularity fix happened. Even if a guy didn't bloom into something amazing, as long as he had 40-50 popularity they were at least going to be credible on some level. A "the safest pick" LB comes across as something I don't want to be touching rather early in the draft. 2.5 sacks for a OLB isn't exactly screaming "pick me" either. The guy has 9.5 sacks for his career. It's his 6 picks that get him on youtube.

[DeToxRox]

As far as Curry goes, there was an article on NFL.com where someone talking to many scouts said Mayo was a better prospect coming out then Curry.

Curry is an OLB they wanted to move to MLB. That is not safe, even though he probably pans out.

And it isn't like Curry woulda signed for 28 mil garaunteed, it would've been more like 35 or 36 for a OLB who could end up being Lance Briggs. Briggs is a great SLB, but he doesn't get many sacks or many picks.

An LB has to be a game changer and since it sounds like it was down to he and Curry, you gotta' go with the guy who you feel will change games.

This pick was all Jim Schwartz. He was there first hand for the Vince Young fiasco, so let's see how much he learned from it.

[DeToxRox]

Dola, as far as a cap goes, the NFLPA is steadfast that if 2010 is uncapped there won't ever be a cap again. I find this unlikely but it could be possible and if that's the case the garaunteed money isn't an issue.

Again, slim chance but a chance none the less.

[Passacaglia]

Sounds like it's basically a 4-year contract (I don't know if the exact figures are out there):


Matthew Stafford's contract with Lions is really a four-year deal -
Detroit Lions: News, Blogs, Photos, Audio, Schedule & Stats - MLive.com

Matthew Stafford's contract with Lions is really a four-year deal
by Tom Kowalski | Opinion
Saturday April 25, 2009, 7:59 AM

Some quick thoughts about the Detroit Lions' newest acquisition: Georgia quarterback Matthew Stafford, who signed a six-year, $72 million contract Friday night (the deal includes $41.7 million in guaranteed money):
--- The overwhelming reaction I got from media people from around the country last night is that the Lions basically rolled over and let Stafford's agent, Tom Condon, have his way. I don't think anybody was anticipating the guaranteed money to be that high.

You have to remember that this is really a four-year contract. If, after four years, Stafford is terrible or mediocre, he's going to get cut. The Lions aren't going to pay big salaries on the final two years of the deal unless Stafford is a Pro Bowl-type player.

And, if Stafford is playing that well, the Lions will want to rip up the final two years of that deal anyway and sign him to a huge extension.

--- Because the Lions are basically tethered to Stafford for four years one way or the other (because of the huge commitment in guaranteed money), it makes it much easier for head coach Jim Schwartz to sit Stafford for part or all of his rookie season. It might seem like a complete waste of money in the first year because they're not getting anything back from their investment, but that money is gone regardless. Now the only issue is making sure that at the end of four years, the team has done the best possible job of putting Stafford in a position to succeed.

--- Based on initial reactions, Stafford's contract has certainly angered many Lions' fans. But are there any Falcons' fans still beefing about Matt Ryan's huge contract last year? Ryan, the third overall pick, got $5 million more in guaranteed money than the No. 1 pick (Miami's Jake Long).

The reality of the situation is this: The Lions have either made a brilliant move in grabbing the next Peyton Manning-type quarterback or they've committed one of the biggest financial blunders in NFL history. There's really no middle ground or gray area here because this isn't going to be about debating Stafford's statistics - stats which can be bent in any way to suit the person making the argument.

No, this is about winning and losing. Either the Lions are going to be a legitimate playoff team - and winning in the playoffs - in four years or they aren't. Cut and dried.

--- No excuses. The one thing that Lions' fans should absolutely not tolerate in this process is a bunch of excuses from the team. If the Lions try to put spin on this in a couple of years and say that Stafford was a good pick and he's really a good quarterback but the Lions aren't winning because of this, that or the other thing ... well, then maybe the Lions' front office should've taken care of this, that and other thing BEFORE they went out and spent $41.7 million in guaranteed money on a quarterback.

Like I said, there can be no meaningful debate about this in three or four years. If the Lions are winning a lot of football games, Lions general manager Martin Mayhew will be saluted for pulling the trigger and acquiring the Lions' first great quarterback since Bobby Layne. If the Lions are losing football games, Mayhew will be the rightful target of ridicule.

Let the games begin.

I'm not the kind of guy that spends too much time judging stuff like this anymore, coupled with the fact that I don't think I saw Stafford play at all last year. I'll just hope for the best.

[Izulde]

I wish 3 pm CST would hurry up and get here.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Izulde

I wish 3 pm CST would hurry up and get here.

Word. I'd even settle for 4 pm EST.

[B & B]

This is my favorite quote from last years NFL Draft thread.

Originally Posted by DeToxRox

Congrats to Atlanta for the worst draft.