05-05-2010, 08:19 AM | #101 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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On the "learning" front, I'll offer this to anyone reading. The game files are right there for anyone who might like to go back, look at the after-draft pool, check out these guys that MalcPow singled out (and his brief reasoning why) and see what can be learned from that. I'm not sure that we have any future superstars here... but picking up *six* camp creepers from one post-draft pool is pretty impressive.
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05-05-2010, 08:44 AM | #102 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: San Diego
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On Hamilton... I just don't trust a WR with a 7 bench, or anything below an 11. I'd much rather have a 4.51/11/7.20 guy with a 50+ big play bar than a guy like Hamilton, who may very well be worth something but I've just never seen a guy like that work out in a big enough way that it's worth taking the time.
I also like what happened with Staat, a 63 big play bar makes me think we really have something there. I'd try to get him in as our third receiver at the very least, maybe even start him in the second half when the season's likely a bit of a lost cause. |
05-05-2010, 08:49 AM | #103 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: San Diego
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As another learning note, when I, or others, talk about things like paired bars... the really interesting thing is that these paired bars are often really just indicators. A guy with a set of high paired bars will often end up looking like a guy who has similar ratings in all categories across the board, and at a slightly lower level than the initial paired bars might be at. It is a funny thing to watch, but, over time, the high pair will regress a bit and the other ratings will keep growing.
I would not be surprised if Staat is a guy like this and he ends up close to a 60/60 with fairly even ratings. |
05-05-2010, 10:51 AM | #104 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Maassluis, Zuid-Holland, Netherlands
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Staat's blue bars actually looks like what I'd expect Hamilton to eventually look like based on his combine scores.
With the game saved, there's actually room to 'test' what would happen with Staat and Hamilton on the same team... hmmmm...
__________________
* 2005 Golden Scribe winner for best FOF Dynasty about IHOF's Maassluis Merchantmen * Former GM of GEFL's Houston Oilers and WOOF's Curacao Cocktail |
05-05-2010, 11:05 AM | #105 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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MIJB, I think you're seeing a whole lot more variability in the BPR bar than is conventional wisdom. Most of us are pretty well resigned to the notion that it pretty much is what it is, setting aside small scout error and the occasional random boom/bust. I don't have a sense that we see many (any?) guys -- even profound creepers -- who gain anything like 10-20 points there.
Just in the FWIW column. Last edited by QuikSand : 05-05-2010 at 11:09 AM. |
05-05-2010, 01:59 PM | #106 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Maassluis, Zuid-Holland, Netherlands
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I hear ya, QS. I'm not much different, I would have cut the guy too.
__________________
* 2005 Golden Scribe winner for best FOF Dynasty about IHOF's Maassluis Merchantmen * Former GM of GEFL's Houston Oilers and WOOF's Curacao Cocktail |
05-05-2010, 02:12 PM | #107 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Maassluis, Zuid-Holland, Netherlands
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Will be interesting to see when/if the cohesion and chemistry start working for the team now.
__________________
* 2005 Golden Scribe winner for best FOF Dynasty about IHOF's Maassluis Merchantmen * Former GM of GEFL's Houston Oilers and WOOF's Curacao Cocktail |
05-05-2010, 08:48 PM | #108 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Cutting down to 53 (well, 54 with one on IR) is very tough.
I set up a 60-20-20 base offense, with a bit more downfield passing than I might have otherwise gotten into with a simpler team. We'll give WR Staat the chance to start at FL right away, but will use a rotation at WR overall. RB Harry Gaylor will be the starter at RB, but that too will be a 3-man rotation by design, with no obvious standout. |
05-05-2010, 08:49 PM | #109 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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By the way, I forgot the check at the start of the season, but our cohesion stands at 71-90-73-72... below average everywhere but along the OL.
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05-05-2010, 08:58 PM | #110 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Code:
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05-05-2010, 09:42 PM | #111 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Some quick comments from the draft page:
RB Alan Meteer - huge bars for receiving, intriguing FB Shannon Giles TE Craig Milgate - red 2tr +2 blues DT Antonio Brunner - 4.93 dash NY B.J. Samuels - bar pattern |
05-05-2010, 09:43 PM | #112 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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05-06-2010, 11:32 AM | #113 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Perhaps it is time to hand the reins over to QB Patrick Cobb? No complete voids in his bars... I am always awry of guys who have an absolute zero, especially in something we plan to do fairly often (like throw for 11-30 yards).
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05-06-2010, 12:28 PM | #114 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: San Diego
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I think we need to sign some of these guys:
QB Edward Eliot - No combine guy with decent sol and pos, high-ish sense rush bar. RB Tracy McNulty - No combine with decent brk and sp outside. Should creep some, but probably not a future star. WR Terrell Keith - Another must have WR like Staat from last year. Solid looking big play bar, combines are where we'd hope, and pct dev is way off of 18/32 rating. Only downside is he went to Syracuse. WR O.J. de la Garza - Decent combines, speculative guy. WR Darryl Singleton - Some big bars, bare minimum combines, probably a mega-bust waiting to happen but shurg. WR Butch Kemp - A lot to like with him. Some decent combines. Probably won't be a star but we'll see if he bumps in camp. WR Willie Lans - No combine speculation pick. RT Kevin Shepherd - No combine with good bar signature, size, and pct dev/rating discrepancy. Like him a lot. RG Steve McKnight - Roll the dice, maybe a future 45/45 guy. DE Bernard Fagan - Don't like him much, but it seems to be pretty tough to land DLs in this format. Give him a camp. DT Jamal Young, DE Eric Verba, Leroy Broestl - Ditto above. SLB Brenden Coggins - Looks to be worth a camp. I may just be all googly over his pos score. I'm not sure what we do on the QB front, looks like Cobb is creeping a little. Be interested to see what happens in camp. |
05-06-2010, 07:43 PM | #115 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Okay, unlikely to get to this tonight...camp likely in the morning.
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05-07-2010, 09:26 AM | #116 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Sorry if formatting is fouled up here, no CT handy:
Code:
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05-07-2010, 10:55 AM | #117 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Okay, cuts down to 55 made, preseason run, and now I'm looking at the final cuts.
I am thinking QB Wisniewski is one of them. I have 4 on hand now, with Duran as the incumbent starter (and a 3x affinity guy), Cobb looking like Plan B for this year, and Davison a not-so-bad 3x affinity guy for our 3rd spot (potential long term keep there at minsal forever). Wisniewski has Ldr 46, Int 34, Pers 12... I forget what combo of those leads to mentorship, but I don't see that coming soon, which would be a strong reason to keep him around. Wiz is also unhappy, meaning we'd have to give him some starts this year to re-sign him, probably. I'm thinking he goes here. |
05-07-2010, 11:11 AM | #118 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Okay, into the season, and seeing something really weird. The depth chart at RB looks like this:
RB1: Gaylor, 80%, 0 End RB2: Meteer, 65/79 3&S: Gaylor PSD: Malone, 9 PS+: Gaylor Through three games, where we have been pretty competitive in each, by the way, here's the carry total: Gaylor 5 Meteer 60 QBs total 6 Malone 0 FBs total 0 *shurg* Haven't put a single RB with endurance on this team to date... but I don't recall ever seeing anything like this. |
05-07-2010, 11:16 AM | #119 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Oh, hey... looks like I have Rb2 slotted as the starter in pretty much every formation. So, there's that, I guess.
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05-07-2010, 11:16 AM | #120 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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gadget AI-busting gameplan FTL
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05-07-2010, 11:17 AM | #121 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: North Carolina
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weird. Does Gaylor nominally start every game? Can we tell?
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05-07-2010, 11:17 AM | #122 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: North Carolina
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dola: never mind, then.
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05-07-2010, 11:18 AM | #123 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: San Diego
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Hehehe
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05-07-2010, 11:23 AM | #124 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Moving on... 303 now, only one blowout loss, Duran is (6/5, 7.12) at QB for a rating of 76. Clearly the team's best start yet.
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05-07-2010, 11:28 AM | #125 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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So...uhhh...probably good that I picked 3-3 to post that mid-season snippet. Things didn't exactly carry on from there as we may have hoped.
Code:
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05-07-2010, 11:48 AM | #126 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: North Carolina
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24.3 qb rating? Damn. Way to take the initiative there, Cobb.
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05-07-2010, 11:51 AM | #127 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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When the season was lost, I thought it wise to give Cobb a few starts (last 3 games, all single-digit scores for us). His bars continue to progress, so I think there's still hope there... but it's hard to tell quite where we are.
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05-07-2010, 11:58 AM | #128 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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From the draft screen:
WR Marco Torrence - wow, 4.43 dash/30 sole/6.90 agil - might be a WR who can actually, you know, get open CB Anton George - 4.46 and a 45 Pos SLB Lionel Burbage - 4.53 dash and good lower bars MLB Duane McGillicuddy - 43 test, some big bars QB Lawrence Dunn - 13 str, 3 blues QB Max Morris - 36/12 TE Gino Knievel - 3 blues, 1 awesome name C Andy Kelly, blue dash, max run bar |
05-07-2010, 12:03 PM | #129 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Latest offseason's files: http://www.sevenshuffles.com/QuikSand/imtbuf2016.zip
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05-07-2010, 12:58 PM | #130 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Maassluis, Zuid-Holland, Netherlands
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Fixed?
__________________
* 2005 Golden Scribe winner for best FOF Dynasty about IHOF's Maassluis Merchantmen * Former GM of GEFL's Houston Oilers and WOOF's Curacao Cocktail |
05-07-2010, 04:23 PM | #131 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Well, for whatever reason, most of our WR lineup is guys with a low RR rating. We have several with pretty respectable bars in either BPR or GD (or both), but it's the "getting open" thing (however you translate that to FOFspeak) that I sense we are missing. With those combines, if Torrence can creep and play, then between him and Staat maybe we have a serious starting twosome, finally, with the rest of the lot more or less playing as collective wingmen.
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05-07-2010, 04:44 PM | #132 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Maassluis, Zuid-Holland, Netherlands
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True, having one WR with decent RR (and some play making skills) does help. I didn't realize they were all very low on RR (although, I should have known with the type of talent around after the draft.
__________________
* 2005 Golden Scribe winner for best FOF Dynasty about IHOF's Maassluis Merchantmen * Former GM of GEFL's Houston Oilers and WOOF's Curacao Cocktail |
05-08-2010, 10:39 AM | #133 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Code:
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05-08-2010, 10:43 AM | #134 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Of the meaningful movers here:
RB Richmond was highly developed and had an out-of-the-box name, seemed worth a look... bars are still unimpressive, but he now gets some time in the rotation, I think, wita +5 camp Tough hits at CB, where both Marx and Biletnikoff were getting a lot of playing time. WR Spencer might have faded his way right out of playing time in a crowded WR group. No move from WR Torrence... disappointing. I really don't understand that at all. How can he have been so great at the combines? The fact that his bars were so low, and every single team passed on him round after round suggests it was (duh) the combine that was the anomaly, but I really don't get it with guys like this. I might have drafted that guy in round two in a MP draft, or might have been neaten to the punch to do so, even. |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Buffalo Bills Player Report
(IMTBUF2016c - IMTBUF2016d)
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05-08-2010, 12:29 PM | #136 | |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Pasted from another thread for reference... I intend to start documenting this team's cohesion and chemistry at the start of each season from here out, and to mark cohesion I'll be using this calculation.
Quote:
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05-08-2010, 01:17 PM | #137 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Quick notes on cutdowns:
-LB Burbage dropped in camp, but has two good bars that make me think he is likely the future for us at WLB... but this year he will spend on IR with an injury. Next season, though, he may step right into that starting job (where I think Fletcher's 12 sacks last year were a fluke). -RB is one of the last spots to resolve, and I decide to dump former starter Gaylor. Only about 4 ypc in three years, I think we know what we have in him - no affinity, and no variable skills. We will stick with big-barred and versatile Meteer, and the two young creepers in McNulty and Richmond, with rookie Richmond slotting in as the starter right away, I think, McNulty as the #2, and Meteer as the passing down back (and primary PR/KR). -My thinking is that we will start off with Duran in at QB, and then at the halfway point we will reassess. If the team is still in its doldrums, I plan to slot in Cobb for the latter half of the season, and see what each guy gives us. -I think I'm done with Castillo as the LDE starter... we'll reinstate run-stopper Godfery at the RDE slot, and move pass rusher Ted May over to LDE to start, where he ought to at least be able to post a handful of sacks (Castillo still is zero in Run D and PR Tech, while May is rated 17,55/56... Castillo has posted 5.5 sacks in 3 seasons as a starter, May posted 7 in the same time as a reserve) And, after we pare down to 53, here's the intangibles snapshot on opening day: Roster rating: 1 (32nd, second to last is 25) Cohesion ratings: 64 (30th), 100/96, 67 (t25th), 88 (7th) AffIndex: 89 |
05-08-2010, 01:55 PM | #138 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Okay, at the halfway point:
Code:
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05-08-2010, 02:01 PM | #139 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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And the full season wrap-up doesn't really change the bottom line:
Code:
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05-08-2010, 02:14 PM | #140 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Quik Thoughts:
-Team is obviously not actually good... but there are things worth watching at least. The defense is up to roughly average in terms of yards allowed per play (both ways), and that's a good sign. We're still getting killed by the turnovers, especially with Cobb at QB. -Fletcher had another superficially strong season as a pass rusher -- I know the 3-4 Will tends to get phony numbers, but he's at least credible there - with a 6.6 PR%. LDE May posted a respectable 5.1, but overall our pass rush remains a soft spot, to no surprise. -We got precious little from the RB position, it seems. From the FO data in-game, we posted a 4.05 ALY and 3.55 ypc by RB -- suggesting that the main difference between our outcome and the league average was due to the RB position, rather than the blocking infrastructure. I guess that's encouraging, right? Fixable with one or two new guys, perhaps...? Or maybe Happenstance can get it together after all? or Meteer? |
05-08-2010, 02:17 PM | #141 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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In the offseason, CB Xavier Marx retires. Big drop in ratings last year in camp, then he became just a rotation player, and now he's out. DB is probably a need position just to add a body or two, at this point -- to no surprise.
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05-08-2010, 02:39 PM | #142 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Quik Notes from the draft screen:
Another intriguing WR - Sean Brackett, 4.42/7/09, big BPR bar WR Brock Sansbury - 4.44 and maxed BPR SLB Les Hanks - 4.65 and strong PRT bar, other good bars WLB Arnold Maru - 22 str, 35 sole, L-bars SS Bill Andrus - 3 blues, 38 pos DT Clifton Baker- 4.96/7.83 TE A.J. Tucker - 5 blues TE Deion Gogan - 4 blues, max Run Bl bar QB Andre Young - 4.53 dash, L-bars |
05-08-2010, 02:41 PM | #143 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Here's the file as we sit in the post-draft pool, 2017.
http://www.sevenshuffles.com/QuikSand/imtbuf2017.zip |
05-08-2010, 07:39 PM | #144 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Maassluis, Zuid-Holland, Netherlands
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Let's see if I'm getting a handle on his this drafting stuff really works. Below are players who were above average in all (sometimes all but one) of the combine scores. I haven't really looked at the bars for most of these players, the combines made them stand out.
QB Lonnie Mills QB D.J. Rhodes QB Travis Miller (probably busts anyway, his agility is too low) RB Byron Vought (no combine) RB Zach Norgard FB Kurt Huang FB Jamie Thibodeaux TE Deion Gogan TE Bernie Warren TE A.J. Tucker WR Derek Conley WR Drew Messina WR Brock Sansbury WR Sean Brackett C Korey Molenaar G Russell Norris G Clay Dollilole T Brian McElroy P Lorenzo Morris (no combine) K Adam Rayburn K Lamont Gunn DE J.B. Leslie DE Lance Mayfield DT Jerome Cunningham DT Bryan Rodriguez MLB Ethan Van Pelt SLB J.B. Saban (no combine) SLB Lee Hanks SLB Heath Wooden WLB Burt Emmons CB J.B. Horton S Teddy Compton
__________________
* 2005 Golden Scribe winner for best FOF Dynasty about IHOF's Maassluis Merchantmen * Former GM of GEFL's Houston Oilers and WOOF's Curacao Cocktail |
05-10-2010, 08:10 AM | #145 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Should have time to get to this today for a bit. Plan will be to sign all the MIJB guys, plus the combine guys from above, and basically move on.
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05-10-2010, 11:16 AM | #146 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Code:
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05-10-2010, 11:22 AM | #147 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Seemingly random drop for DT Grebene... basically makes a long-term affinity starter (for lack of strong options) into a bag or bones. Sucks.
FB Kurt Huang gives a +4... not the best position to get another breakout, but we'll take it. He's **way** too fat to play RB. Three more creeping receivers... this is getting absurd, there definitely won't be enough balls to go around. (Should we maybe star throwing a good deal more, though?) Two more creeping tackles and a center... OL is getting chock full of interesting guys too. I may be tempted to slot McElroy right in as the long term RT starter. DE Castillo has a seemingly random breakout, but is still 0,0 in the top two ratings Maybe DT Jerome Cunningham should be the NT starter now? |
05-11-2010, 02:44 PM | #148 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Okay, onward into the season. Cutdowns are a bitch, we had to dump a ton of decent veterans and +1/2 creepers to get to 53, but I'm there. This will remain a run-first team, but I drop the run % on 1st and 10 from 60 to 53, in an effort to smooth things out a bit more. I'd like to see WR Staat with the ball in his hands more than we have been doing.
Plan again is to start with Duran, and go from there. If the team seems to be taking shape by the halfway point, I might just declare him the man, and be done with it. Or, we could give Cobb a look - his bars remain upwardly creeping and look okay, but the guy was just a pick machine last season. We start out 2-1, and once again I am enchanted by early results into believing maybe the team is putting something together... |
05-11-2010, 02:48 PM | #149 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Code:
Not so much, then. |
05-11-2010, 02:51 PM | #150 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Forgot to do the measures at the start, so I will do them at the end of the season (likely some skew here):
Roster rating: 2 (32nd, second to last is 19) Cohesion ratings: 84 (15th), 97 (2nd), 81 (12th), 93 (2nd) AffIndex: 81 |
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