WSOP Pool

[larrymcg421]

I think that may be why so many people have a low opinion of Moneymaker. The facts don't seem to have been reported accurately by his accusers. For instance, on the Ivey hand, people fail to mention that Ivey sucked out on the turn before Money sucked out on the river. And in the Boyd hand, the flop was 954 rainbow. Boyd had KQ and Moneymaker had two 3's. Money said he had a perfect read on him, and I believe him because when he called he was asking for "low cards" before they flipped their hands over. Money was more than a 3:1 advantage at this point.

This hand isn't exactly the same, because there was a flush draw on the board, something Money didn't have to worry about. The hand that Greenstein had was not "best case scenario", because he had a flush draw. Best case scenario would've been AK, which is a very likely holding considering the way the hand was played. I'm not saying it's an automatic call, but I don't think it's a horrible one either.

As to the answer for your question, are you playing to win or playing to money? That would depend on the answer. The odds are in your favor you're getting 3:1 and have 43% chance to win. It's an easy call in a cash game, but in a tourney it depends on your goals.

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I think I may be fuzzy on the details of the Moneymaker/Boyd hand - I thought that call was pre-flop, when Moneymaker thought non-pair and was a slight favorite. In this case the guy is calling a bet to go in at 43%.

I'll go at this a little differently - would this be a call you would make if you knew you were going to win 43% of the time? There is very little chance he doesn't have two overs no matter what the flush draw is (2 hearts is possible). So here is how this one looks to me:

1.) He has a pocket pair higher than deuces
2.) He has a flush draw
3.) He hit a pair on the flop that is higher than deuces

In any of these cases the chances of winning are no greater than 43%.

4.) He has overcards and now has six outs. Advantage caller.

I think it takes a TON of moxie to make this call. But I'm curious if I'm the only one that sees it this way. There would be no discussion coming from me if he had pushed with his underpair.

[larrymcg421]

Down to 4 players in Event 27 and Annie Duke and Mr. Kotter are still remaining. ESPN has really struck gold this year.

[timmynausea]

The sweathogs have gotta be lovin' this.

[larrymcg421]

In Event 28, Kotter finished 2nd and Annie finished 4th. Not much happened in #29 and 30, but man take a look at Event #31

After 1 day of play, there are 25 left. Among them:

Doyle Brunson $165,000 (chip leader)
John Hennigan $140,700
Layne Flack $97,700
Jason Lester $66,500
John Juanda $58,900
Scotty Nguyen $55,300
Men the Master $43,800
Chris Ferguson $41,600

[Dunleavy]

i'm picking a looooooooooong shot, myself. yes wish me luck b/c i'm in the main event!!!

i'm going to try and keep a diary of my experience to share when i get back.

[hoopsguy]

Good luck, Dunleavy. Did you just qualify recently or have you had it locked up for awhile now?

[Dunleavy]

i qualified about a month or two ago online, but it's just now that i'm really getting into it

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

In Event 28, Kotter finished 2nd and Annie finished 4th. Not much happened in #29 and 30, but man take a look at Event #31

After 1 day of play, there are 25 left. Among them:

Doyle Brunson $165,000 (chip leader)
John Hennigan $140,700
Layne Flack $97,700
Jason Lester $66,500
John Juanda $58,900
Scotty Nguyen $55,300
Men the Master $43,800
Chris Ferguson $41,600

Go Doyle!

[larrymcg421]

Hennigan, Juanda, and Ferguson are out. Everyone else still alive with 8 to go.

[larrymcg421]

OK, this is where we're at in Event #31. The final table is (this is a 6 handed event, btw):

Layne Flack 350k
Doyle Brunson 309k
Minh Ly 305k
Scotty Nguyen 254k
Ayaz Mahmood 169k
Jason Lester 119k

Wish I was there.

[timmynausea]

What more could ESPN ask for than a Doyle victory?

[larrymcg421]

Lester is out in 6th, losing with AK to Scotty Nguyen's 77.

[larrymcg421]

Mahmood out in 5th with QQ against Flack's AA (which made quads).

[larrymcg421]

Here are the current chip counts. Come on Doyle!

Nguyen 430k
Brunson 316k
Ly 284k
Flack 479k

[larrymcg421]

BTW, I'm getting my reports from here: http://www.pokertrails.com/phpBB2/vi...r=DESC&start=0

This is pretty exciting stuff. Doyle has just won three pots in a row.

[timmynausea]

Updated chip stacks from a couple minutes ago:

Nguyen 300k
Brunson 440k
Ly 500k
Flack 290k

[QuikSand]

this is definitely very interesting... great final foursome...18 bracelets already there.

oh, and I'm getting my updates from right here...

[QuikSand]

BIG all in clash... Layne has Doyle barely covered... they are in with two big hands...high drama!

[QuikSand]

Doyle's KK holds up (boats) to cripple Layne and put Doyle into the chip lead!

[timmynausea]

Doyle just lost a big pot to Ly, and 2 hands later Flack doubled up through him (Brunson). That sucks.

[timmynausea]

oh man. it's looking like brunson will get really lucky and knock flack out. (pending the river.) Yes. He did. Wow.
He had K9 vs. Flack's K10 on a flop of 10 9 3. Flack went all in and Brunson called. The turn was a 9. Flack is out in 4th.

[timmynausea]

Doyle is back in the lead.

Nguyen 220k
Brunson 780k
Ly 520k

[timmynausea]

He did it. Doyle Brunson just won his 10th bracelet.

[Chubby]

yeah Doyle! both because he's cool and because I have him on my team

[hoopsguy]

Seidel is up to his tricks again, sitting 2nd in chips at the 10k pot-limit Omaha table. And Negreanu is finally going to cash - he is the short stack with 25 left in the 3k limit hold-em event.

Updated standings:
Chubby - 2069.475
Hoopsguy - 1685.728
Timmynausea - 1598.348
Larrymcg - 1439.390
Naiwf - 1264.445
QuikSand - 1124.190
Lathum - 723.610
LionKing - 591.483
SirFozzie - 584.575
HonoluluBlue - 446.040

[Honolulu Blue]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Very funny stuff, Honolulu.

Thanks.

Boy, I sure know how to pick 'em, don't I? The way I figure it, here are two of the more likely scenarios where I can take the lead in this little pool:

1) Humberto Brenes makes the final table at the Main Event and none of the other players do, or
2) At least two of "my" guys make the final table, while no more than one than one of anyone else's does.

Both are serious longshots, but that won't stop me from rooting for my boy anyway.

[hoopsguy]

Given the speculation that the main event $$$ will be capped at 10mil, all of the points up to the final table are interesting, but perhaps not making much of a difference. If someone gets the winner (alone), they would win this pool on points, even if there wasn't a rule declaring them as champ. Even if another person has the runner-up, they would have had to have had a monster tournament to overcome this.

That said, here are the best scenarios for each player to put together a run of points. These are the players I see that are unique to each player:

Naiwf - Luske or Fischman (shared with Honolulu, but ahead on points)
Fozzie - Tsiprailidis, Kelleher
Chubby - keep riding the Seidel train, Krux, A. Brenes
Lathum - Frangos, Violette
Quik - Ng
LionKing - Phan, Sklansky, Flack
Hoopsguy - Arieh, Chiu
Larry - Hennigan
Timmy - Gordon
Honolulu - Brenes

Probably missed one or two, but these represent the guys you should be pulling hardest for at this point.

[timmynausea]

None of this matters when Seidel wins the main event just as I predicted.

[hoopsguy]

Larry has taken over the points lead thanks to Hennigan bringing home a bracelet. He is now up about 25 points on Chubby, with Hoops (yes, I'm referring to myself in the 3rd person) and Timmy about 400 points back.

[hoopsguy]

Wait a minute - is there actually a John Heneghan and a John Hennigan?

The event winner is John Heneghan, from Safety Harbor, FL ... could have sworn Hennigan is from Philly. Also, he is at the final table in the parallel event.

Sorry for the confusion - especially for Larry, who is now back in 4th place, pending the results of the 2-7 Lowball final table.

[larrymcg421]

Yeah it's a different Hennigan since they said he won his 1st bracelet, and I'm sure we all remember Hennigan's memorable win last year in the "Ellix Powers" table.

[Chubby]

people creating sound a likes to try and take my chip lead!

[larrymcg421]

Wait until "Philip Ivy" wins the ME.

[Honolulu Blue]

Day 1 damage report:

Jesus: crucified
Scott: screwed
Humberto: muerto
Gus: around $7000. Not too good :o

Let's hope day 2 goes a little better.

[hoopsguy]

Chan, Arieh, Ferguson, Greenstein, Seidel, Fischman, Forrest, H. Brenes, Devilfish, Harman are the names that I see out. That is four of my players out (including ME) - hard to believe that anyone had a worse day than that, but I didn't check other peoples holdings to verify.

[timmynausea]

3 out for me. Including my ME pick.

That is just the first third of day 1, too, really. I really have very little hope of winning. I suppose it's all riding on Phil Gordon.

[larrymcg421]

Negreanu down to $3k already. Why did I pick him? Hansen (my ME pick) is down to $6k at the end of yesterday.

[hoopsguy]

Negreanu - dead.
Lindgren - dead.

That leaves me with four players at maybe the halfway part of the first day (in three parts) of action. This is depressing - time to stop thinking about the pool and just get excited about the main event being here.

[timmynausea]

Phil Gordon is done so that pretty much kills my chances. Hellmuth also got knocked out. Had this been last year, I would've surely picked Farha, who was among the chip leaders at the end of the day with about $120k.

Still alive for me (i think): Howard Lederer, Dan Harrington, Minh Nguyen and Gus Hansen

Harrington and Hansen made it to day 2, (though Gus is not in the best shape), and Lederer and Nguyen will start today, I believe.

[Honolulu Blue]

Updated body count after day 3:

Antonio - did a disappearing act. Could never return.
Kathy - busted
Daniel - went home crying to mama
Phil H. - just went home crying
Action Dan - About $20k. He's got 'em right where he wants 'em.
Marcel - About $9k. Could be worse.

Gus from day 1 is also still in, though with a small stack. So, 7 down, three to go.

[Honolulu Blue]

Message from our sponsor: Dola bananas are good for you.

Dan, Gus, and Marcel are all gone, well out of the money. Last place is assured.

It's been real, folks.

[timmynausea]

I'm down to Howard Lederer, so there's no way I can win as others who have Lederer are ahead of me. I'm still pulling for Howard, though, cause he's a good guy.

[Chubby]

updated standings with the players each person has left still in the ME?

[larrymcg421]

This is the up to date standing pre-WSOP. The onyl glitch is i don't think Pokerpages has the full payouts listed for Deuce to Seven. Hennigen (the REAL one) scored 211 points for me in that one to move me into 3rd.

Chubby - 2139.18 (Ivey)
Hoops - 1789.743 (Ivey, Mizrachi)
Larry - 1773.675 (Lederer, Ivey)
Timmy - 1671.343 (Lederer)
naiwf - 1271.17 (Ivey, Lederer, Raymer)
Quik - 1130.915 (Juanda ME, Ivey)
Lathum - 791.605 (Lederer)
TheLionKing - 615.453 (Mizrachi, Flack, Lederer)
SirFozzie - 584.575 (None, I think)
Honolulu - 452.765 (Also none)

[hoopsguy]

Thanks for the update, Larry. Was thinking about doing the same thing myself.

Winning scenarios:
Chubby - Ivey title, or only amateurs/Internet guys/non-picked people around at the end
Hoops - Grinder
Larry - Lederer
Timmy - done
Naiwf - Raymer, 1/2 punch of Ivey/Lederer is enough to overcome people with only one of those two in front of him
Quik - ME winner Juanda
Lathum - done
LionKing - Flack, Lederer/Grinder combo enough to overcome people with only one
Fozzie - done
Honolulu - done

So a six horse race at this point.

[larrymcg421]

Forgot to point out. LionKing has Flack as his ME pick, so that's a winning scenario for him.

[larrymcg421]

Most recent updates on our people:

Flack - $197,000
Grinder - $165,000
Raymer - $110,000 (Best repeat performance in a while?)
Juanda - $65,000
Ivey - $55,000
Lederer - $38,000

[larrymcg421]

Obviously, I meant best repeat performance from a champion. Harrington's repeat performance tops all others, at least all the way back to Johnny Chan going 1st, 1st, and 2nd in three straight years.

[hoopsguy]

Updated chip counts:
Raymer: 318,700
Grinder: 294,800
Flack: 188,100
Juanda: 144,100
Lederer: 128,700
Ivey: 89,600

[larrymcg421]

Chip Updates:

Our guys:

Raymer $700,000
Grinder $475,000
Ivey $310,000
Juanda $226,000
Flack $200,000
Lederer $89,000

Other notables:

Mike Matusow $373,000
Paul Darden $262,500
Kenna James $250,000 (fyi he was the guy that completely covered his face when Lederer was trying to read him during the 2003 WSOP)
Jason Lester $242,000
Olga Varkonyi $181,000
Dutch Boyd $173,000