04-16-2003, 04:41 AM | #101 |
lolzcat
Join Date: May 2001
Location: williamsburg, va
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File 2..
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04-16-2003, 06:20 AM | #102 | |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Fairfax, VA
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Quote:
Artis is a guy I want to keep an eye on for a big breakout. Part of the "fan favorite" experiment with breakouts. |
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04-16-2003, 07:05 AM | #103 | |
lolzcat
Join Date: May 2001
Location: williamsburg, va
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fan favorite experiment?
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04-16-2003, 07:17 AM | #104 | |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Fairfax, VA
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Quote:
In the strategy section Quiksand outlined his "method" of determining busts/breakouts. Someone (Pyser?) brought up the point that they have noticed that popularity often seems to give another clue as to breakout/bust success. Basically, the more popular the player the more likely they'll breakout; the less popular the player, the more likely they'll bust (all other factors being even). During the draft there was some discussion as to taking the LB Artis (a fan favorite) or a DE (I think he was recognized by the fans?). We ended up getting both. If there's anything to the fan popularity issue, there should be a good chance that Artis "breaks out". He has the classic look of a potential breakout and also the "possible" indicator of being a fan favorite. While a single case doesn't prove anything, if Artis breaks out I wouldn't mind tracking draft pick popularity closer and see if there is any conclusions we can reach. |
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04-16-2003, 08:42 AM | #105 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Mark it down now. MLB Vincent Wellman will be a 1st string All-Pro this season. When you combine the fact that he is just about at the peak of his skills and we don;t quite have the talent around him at LB that we have had the past couple of years he is primed for a huge season.
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04-16-2003, 08:54 AM | #106 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Preseason Notes
Dline This is going to be an interesting pre-season for the defensive line. This is the first time in awhile that I can't really pencil anyone in as an automatic starter at this point. At LDE we have two guys who figure to get some solid playing time. 5 year veteran Ben Howen doesn't have eye popping ratings, but he is solid across the board and has put up solid stats over the years to go with them. And rookie Tommy Walton looks like he could be a breakout player. At RDE Adrian Brewer looks like he is ready for a big season. Last year was a good rookie campaign for him. He wasn't able to get to the QB much, but he did have 17 hurries and a solid 5.3 PRPct. We also bring Riddick Fonley back for another season. He has been a monster for us when he is healthy, but the las two seasons he has been unable to stay healthy. We have an interesting mix of players at DT. At this point in his career Howard Johnston looks like he is strictly a pass rushing specialist. Bert Ellis looks like he is developing nicely, but he isn;t very strong against the run either. We bring back Marshall Castillo he is a good run stopper and somehow rookie Alan Schenk will probably fit into the mix also. This was an area we were very concerned about in the offseason, but we may have accomplished the goal we set out to achive. It looks like we have good depth on the Dline and are probably well suited to handle any injuries that are sure to come throughout the season.
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04-16-2003, 09:02 AM | #107 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Little Rock at Hawk Mountain (-6)
Code:
Injuries Howard Johnston, RDT - ACL Knee Surgery, Probable, full strength in about 2 weeks. Wayne Hill, FL - Strained Adductor Muscle, Out, full strength in about 2 weeks. James Becker, WLB - Hyperextended Knee, Out, full strength in about 3 weeks.
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04-16-2003, 09:05 AM | #108 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Mazatlan (-3) at Little Rock
Code:
Injuries Duane Crawford, RB - Severe Hamstring Pull, Out, full strength in about 17 weeks. Wayne Hill, FL - Strained Adductor Muscle, Out, full strength in about 2 weeks. Lenny Richmond, RB - Sprained Knee, Questionable, full strength in about 3 weeks. James Becker, WLB - Hyperextended Knee, Questionable, full strength in about 2 weeks.
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04-16-2003, 09:09 AM | #109 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Providence at Little Rock (-2)
Code:
Injuries Duane Crawford, RB - Severe Hamstring Pull, Out, full strength in about 16 weeks. Ethan Brock, FB - Bruised Sternum, Probable, full strength in about 3 weeks. Lenny Richmond, RB - Sprained Knee, Questionable, full strength in about 2 weeks. James Becker, WLB - Hyperextended Knee, Questionable, full strength in about 2 weeks.
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04-16-2003, 09:10 AM | #110 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Little Rock at AThens (-1)
Code:
Injuries Duane Crawford, RB - Severe Hamstring Pull, Out, full strength in about 15 weeks. Ethan Brock, FB - Bruised Sternum, Probable, full strength in about 2 weeks. Lenny Richmond, RB - Sprained Knee, Probable, full strength in about 1 week. James Becker, WLB - Hyperextended Knee, Probable, full strength in about 1 week.
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04-16-2003, 09:20 AM | #111 | |
lolzcat
Join Date: May 2001
Location: williamsburg, va
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Bee,
Some input on what you think the OL lineup should look like would be appreciated.. I'm particuraly interested in your opinion on the right side..
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04-16-2003, 09:22 AM | #112 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Okay, so we put RB Crawford onto the IR... that's one more player we get to keep. And perhaps that will dent his popularity rating at least a tiny bit? (Doubt that)
primelord, I'm with you on Wellman. If healthy, he should have a monster year. |
04-16-2003, 09:30 AM | #113 | |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Fairfax, VA
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Quote:
I'll try to take a look at it this evening when I get home. I'm doing some consulting work on the side and time is tight in the evenings right now. Now you know why I didn't want to have a more active role, my time at home is usually very scarce making it very hard to be as involved as I'd like in a dynasty where we transfer files back and forth. |
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04-16-2003, 09:31 AM | #114 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Oct 2000
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I have to be honest since I am always so focused on the defense I don't pay very close attention to the offensive players ratings. So I have a couple of questions.
Did Emmanuel Kahn look that good before training camp? He looks like a much better runner to me than Lenny Richmond. We didn;t even have him in the preseason lineup until Crawford went down. That kind of surprised me. And was Bo Biggs always that good? I remember his ratings being good, but he looks awesome now. It seems we have amazing depth at RB now.
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04-16-2003, 10:27 AM | #115 | |
lolzcat
Join Date: May 2001
Location: williamsburg, va
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As for Kahn, to be honest, I don't remember paying too much attention to him.. I'll have to see how he is rated now...
Biggs has always been close to that good, although more green in the past... I mean, I would have been fine with him, but when Lucas comes along you don't pass him up... Biggs has always been solid though.. I mean, look at his numbers last year.. at mid season he was the #10 rusher in the league as the backup, while our starter was #2... He is a bonified stud and it will suck to lose him..
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04-16-2003, 09:23 PM | #116 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Sorry guys. Things got hectic at work and I forgot to post the files. I will post them first thing when I get to work in the morning.
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04-16-2003, 09:28 PM | #117 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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primelord, I picked up RB Kahn as a URFA strictly on speculation that he might be a possible breakout type. I havwe not updated since before training camp - here's what I see from him before camp:
77 69 18/30 39/46 54/68 34 8/36 19/26 11/40 16/23 15/69 0 0 38/49 That should give us a clear baseline as to whether he has improved during camp and preseason. If so, we might want to consider a "keeper" strategy to try to re-sign him after this season. |
04-16-2003, 09:31 PM | #118 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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And, for the most part, we have been acquiring our talent by watching the "key ratings" - and therefore we regularly have a complete embarassment of riches on this team. Thus, my conclusion that this is a high priority to be altered in a forthcoming game patch. It's a little bit more subtle than "the team doesn't go for two when it's...blahblahblah" biut this is the kind of thing that makes you just put the game down. And this community was built, initially at least, because these were games that you didn't want to put down.
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04-17-2003, 07:14 AM | #119 | |
lolzcat
Join Date: May 2001
Location: williamsburg, va
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Sorry guys.. I'm a bit under the weather and just couldn't drag myself out of bed early enough this mornign.. I'll do the first 4 games tonight/tomorrow morning..
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04-17-2003, 09:09 AM | #120 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Here are some of the defensive stats from the preseason. In terms of pass rushing we may be in serious trouble if we get the same type of results during the regular season.
Code:
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04-17-2003, 09:30 AM | #121 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Oct 2000
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RB Emmanuel Kahn
Code:
So it looks like so far Kahn has been a slight breakout. And if he follows the pattern of showing his potential slowly over a few seasons he could be a real stud in a few years. |
04-17-2003, 09:32 AM | #122 | |
Resident Curmudgeon
Join Date: Oct 2002
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Quote:
And whose fault is that for figuring that out? Lol. |
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04-17-2003, 09:49 AM | #123 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Thanks for the update, primelord. I think Kahn is on his way to becoming a very productive back, a guy we might want to keep around as a potential #2 behind our star. I expect him to get better thgouh this season, and have another good camp next year. Let's hope that his demands don't get out of control after one season in our weight room.
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04-17-2003, 12:38 PM | #124 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Oct 2000
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And finally before I post the new files here is a look at the pass defense statistics for the preseason.
Code:
I have moved Nicky Mercado over to SS since Ty Lincoln refuses to make that move now. That was my bad. Mercado should be ready to step in next year after Bridgeman hopefully retires. I am not certain how much my little +/- rating system tells us, but it's better than nothing I guess. |
04-17-2003, 12:59 PM | #125 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Updated File #1.
Wade, The defense is all set you. You will just need to cut one guy from the offense to get us down to 53. |
04-17-2003, 12:59 PM | #126 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Updated File #2
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04-17-2003, 02:57 PM | #127 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Oct 2000
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And here is a little history for anyone that is interested. Here are the defensive stats for all the Roller defenders from 90-96.
Code:
Pass Defense Code:
Last edited by primelord : 04-17-2003 at 03:00 PM. |
04-17-2003, 05:32 PM | #128 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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primelord, while I applaud the intent of your +/- stat for watching pass defenders, this example really seems to bring out its weakness. A stat where nearly every player generates a negative figure will yield awfully perplexing results over time.
Who has been our most effective pass defender? I surely cannot tell by the +/1 column alone. Bridgeman? He only sunk to -11, despite playing more plays than anyone else (by far). Armstrong's 22 picks stand out, but his +/1 rating doesn't at all. Can we use Maffet and Godfrey's +/- numbers to say anything about them here? I don't know. Maybe Jim's formula is a little unweildy and unintuitive, but at least it does scale the number to some standard - that can conceptually be compared across time periods. For what that's worth. |
04-18-2003, 08:11 AM | #129 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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just bumping so the wave of Hattrick dynasty posts don't sink this one for good...
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04-18-2003, 09:15 AM | #130 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Yea we appear to be a bit stalled. Should I just go ahead and set the offensive lineup and run the first 4 games?
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04-18-2003, 09:27 AM | #131 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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I dunno... I don't feel too strongly either way. I'm bored today, but would be fine if we just waited, too.
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04-18-2003, 12:30 PM | #132 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Oct 2000
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I am fine with waiting too.
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04-18-2003, 03:33 PM | #133 | |
lolzcat
Join Date: May 2001
Location: williamsburg, va
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I'm here, called in sick, finally got up.. simming now..
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04-18-2003, 03:52 PM | #134 | |
lolzcat
Join Date: May 2001
Location: williamsburg, va
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Fort Knox(0-0) at Little Rock(0-0)(-4)
Code:
Injuries: Duane Crawford, RB - Severe Hamstring Pull, Out, full strength in about 14 weeks. Ethan Brock, FB - Bruised Sternum, Probable, full strength in about 2 weeks. Bert Ellis, LDT - Strained Hamstring, Probable, return unknown. ------------- Nice showing for our first game.. I still don't know what the deal with Lucas is..
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04-18-2003, 03:55 PM | #135 | |
lolzcat
Join Date: May 2001
Location: williamsburg, va
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Puget Sound(1-0) at Little Rock(1-0)(-9(
Code:
Injuries: Riddick Finley, RDE - Strained Rotator Cuff, Probable, full strength in about 3 weeks. Duane Crawford, RB - Severe Hamstring Pull, Out, full strength in about 13 weeks. Ethan Brock, FB - Bruised Sternum, Probable, full strength in about 3 weeks. Otis Coghill, QB - Hyperextended Knee, Out, full strength in about 4 weeks. Bert Ellis, LDT - Strained Hamstring, Probable, return unknown. ----- Ugh.. the curse begins.. we get to #1 see if Cascini is really that solid and #2 lean more on our stud RBs more.. Hopefully they show more than they have thus far..
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04-18-2003, 03:59 PM | #136 | |
lolzcat
Join Date: May 2001
Location: williamsburg, va
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Wheeling(2-0) at Little Rock(2-0)(-5)
Code:
Injuries: Riddick Finley, RDE - Strained Rotator Cuff, Probable, full strength in about 2 weeks. Duane Crawford, RB - Severe Hamstring Pull, Out, full strength in about 12 weeks. Ethan Brock, FB - Bruised Sternum, Probable, full strength in about 2 weeks. Otis Coghill, QB - Hyperextended Knee, Doubtful, full strength in about 3 weeks. --------- That's encouraging.. #1 we can win a low scoring game and #2 Lucas came through in the crunch.. I wish he could do it more often..
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04-18-2003, 04:01 PM | #137 | |
lolzcat
Join Date: May 2001
Location: williamsburg, va
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Little Rock(3-0)(-6) at Fort Wayne(2-1)
Code:
Injuries: Riddick Finley, RDE - Strained Rotator Cuff, Probable, full strength in about 1 week. Duane Crawford, RB - Severe Hamstring Pull, Out, full strength in about 10 weeks. Ethan Brock, FB - Bruised Sternum, Probable, full strength in about 1 week. Otis Coghill, QB - Hyperextended Knee, Doubtful, full strength in about 3 weeks. Matthew Morrell, FL - Strained Hamstring, Probable, return unknown. Cole Murray, K - Hyperextended Elbow, Probable, full strength in about 1 week. Bert Ellis, LDT - Broken Clavicle, Out, full strength in about 8 weeks. ------- The defense was solid as it has been all year... the offense didn't deserve that win, but the defense did... In some ways I want to adjust the running, we should have had more rushes there, but I don't like to completley change the offense just because Cog misses a few games..
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04-18-2003, 04:05 PM | #138 |
lolzcat
Join Date: May 2001
Location: williamsburg, va
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prime, it's all yours.. sorry it took so long, but like i said, I'm under the weather, etc... but I'm a lot better after sleeping in, relaxing, etc. so this weekend I should be able to keep up..
Only 1 TD on us all year.. that is DAMNED impressive.. File 1.. |
04-18-2003, 04:06 PM | #139 |
lolzcat
Join Date: May 2001
Location: williamsburg, va
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File 2..
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04-18-2003, 04:28 PM | #140 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Wade,
Don't worry about it. I wasn't trying to rush you. I just get anxious to get the season started.
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04-18-2003, 04:28 PM | #141 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Here is a look at how the defense is doing so far.
Code:
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04-18-2003, 04:34 PM | #142 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Manhattan (3-1) at Little Rock (4-0)(-7)
Code:
Injuries Duane Crawford, RB - Severe Hamstring Pull, Out, full strength in about 9 weeks. Ethan Brock, FB - Bruised Sternum, Probable, full strength in about 1 week. Otis Coghill, QB - Hyperextended Knee, Questionable, full strength in about 2 weeks. Matthew Morrell, FL - Strained Hamstring, Probable, return unknown. Bert Ellis, LDT - Broken Clavicle, Out, full strength in about 8 weeks.
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04-18-2003, 04:38 PM | #143 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Little Rock (5-0) at Niagara Falls (5-0)(-2)
The battle of the unbeatens. Code:
Injuries Duane Crawford, RB - Severe Hamstring Pull, Out, full strength in about 8 weeks. Otis Coghill, QB - Hyperextended Knee, Probable, full strength in about 1 week. Matthew Morrell, FL - Strained Hamstring, Probable, return unknown. Bert Ellis, LDT - Broken Clavicle, Out, full strength in about 7 weeks. Anyone else find it interesting that we didn't kick the FG from 8 yards out, but rather threw a pass. That Full Contact he is a risk taker!
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04-18-2003, 04:40 PM | #144 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Nashua (3-2) at Little Rock (6-0)(-7)
Code:
Injuries Duane Crawford, RB - Severe Hamstring Pull, Doubtful, full strength in about 7 weeks. Ethan Brock, FB - Bruised Ribcage, Probable, full strength in about 1 week. Matthew Morrell, FL - Strained Hamstring, Probable, return unknown. Bert Ellis, LDT - Broken Clavicle, Out, full strength in about 6 weeks.
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04-18-2003, 04:42 PM | #145 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Little Rock (7-0)(-11) at Fort Knox (1-6)
Code:
Injuries Howard Johnston, RDT - Strained Foot Ligament, Out, full strength in about 2 weeks. Duane Crawford, RB - Severe Hamstring Pull, Doubtful, full strength in about 6 weeks. Ethan Brock, FB - Bruised Ribcage, Probable, full strength in about 2 weeks. Bert Ellis, LDT - Broken Clavicle, Out, full strength in about 6 weeks. Halfway home boys!!!
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04-18-2003, 04:47 PM | #146 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Oct 2000
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And another look at the defense
Code:
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04-18-2003, 04:51 PM | #147 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Updated File #1
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04-18-2003, 04:52 PM | #148 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Updated File #2
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04-18-2003, 05:58 PM | #149 |
Strategy Moderator
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: North Carolina
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Man, maybe we need more house rules.
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04-18-2003, 07:45 PM | #150 | |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Quote:
Heh well it really shoudln't be that surprising that we are doing so well. We have an elite QB, 2 elite RB's, and an elite WR on offense. And like I said this defense really works when you are getting pressure with your front 4 and while we may not be quite as great at the top on the dline this year I think we are much deeper than we have been and it has resulted in better play over all. Plus you factor in that we have 2 very good CB's and a star MLB. And the vast majority of these guys we had last season. So is it really that surprising that we are still winning? |
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