The Official MLB 2007 Thread - Page 28

Logan · 07-12-2007, 09:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

But the Yankees have gone "public" (by way of leaks) that they are willing to negotiate now, and if he opts out, they will not take part in the bidding. Seems like if they truly believe he is going to opt out, why would they take the extra step of saying he will not be a Yankee in that case? If they're going to eventually sign him after he opts out anyway, why even make that statement? If this plays out like you say, then they will have shown major weakness in the negotiations and will have to give him a blank check once he opts out - and look ridiculous for drawing a line in the sand and then saying, "No, we really didn't mean it."

Something tells me they know he's leaning towards leaving, and this is their best opportunity to (a) keep him, or (b) save face by pre-emptively making a move to sign him, so that when he opts out and goes elsewhere, they can pin it on him.

I think you're right about the Yankees' motivation with this...believe it or not, they probably won't be able to afford his huge deal (save for Texas still ponying up) with how much they're going to need to turn over the roster. Where I think you're off though is your original point about making A-Rod look bad by starting all this...because of how no one thinks maintaining the contract makes sense. IMO, it's actually the Yankees who are in a no-win situation.

Ksyrup · 07-12-2007, 09:21 AM

I don't see why the 8 year, $241M contract I put together wouldn't make sense, and if he wants to stay with the Yankees, then he HAS to realize that keeping the Rangers on the hook for $29M over the next 3 years is in his best interests. If his plan is to opt out and he honestly thinks the Yankees would then negotiate a deal in the same range, why would they? He just fucked them out of $30M of Tim Hicks' money?

So I guess this means he either tells Boras to stuff it and signs for around $250M with the Yanks in the next few weeks, or they opt out and he almost certainly goes elsewhere. Like I said, I can't see him being able to come back to the Yankees after costing them $30M. My inclination would be to make him an offer, subtract the $29M, and tell him to take it or leave it.

Ksyrup · 07-12-2007, 09:25 AM

As far as ARod looking bad, you don't think Yankees fans are going to go apeshit that he's talked about wanting to stay, they've finally warmed up to him, and then he leaves? Even if you understand the move financially, it's not like he's going to get THAT much more from another team than the Yankees would offer. And since I still hear stuff about how he just goes where the money is, dating back to the Seattle/Texas thing, I think he'd get even more shit for this move nationally.

That's not to say I wouldn't mind seeing him leave. In fact, I'd love for him to take out a full-page ad in the NY papers blasting the fans for not supporting him while he was struggling and then jumping on the bandwagon when he was doing well, and that he wanted to go a team where the fans would support him through thick and thin. It would be hilarious if he came out with a statement about how, at this point in his career, all he wants is a chance to win the World Series, and he doesn't think the Yankees are in a position to do that! Man that would be awesome.

dawgfan · 07-12-2007, 11:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

He won't play center now, but during the course of Ichiro's extension - and probably sooner than later - he is being groomed to take over CF. Which begs the question of whether Ichiro, as a singles hitter, is worth $20M a year to play a corner OF position and not get the most out of his defensive abilities.

We'll have to see how Ichiro ages. At some point in the future, yeah, it may be that Jones surpasses Ichiro as a fielder, but I don't think it's a bad thing to have two guys in the OF that have respectable CF range.

As for Ichiro being a "singles hitter", that's mostly true, but I think most of the country doesn't realize just how good he is at it and just how valuable his hitting in general has been - check out this detailed look at him from USS Mariner. Quick summary - Ichiro's average offensive performance over the last 4 years is better than any single season offensive performance by any other CF over that time.

Quote:

In any event, one plus for you has to be that this pushes Vidro to the bench. Although you have to wonder why they would have agreed to pay him so much money and then give up on him after half a season when anyone with half a brain knew what they were getting. You guys sure could use Soriano in that bullpen now that you have meaningful games to protect, huh? It's too bad the Mariners are doing so well, in a way, because it seems to suggest Bavasi's done a good job.

That's the conundrum for me - Bavasi makes a lot of bad decisions, so I'd love to see someone smarter take his job. With the team doing so well this year, Bavasi's hot seat is most likely cooling off. But I'll make that trade - it's been too much fun this season seeing the team climb back into playoff contention.

dawgfan · 07-12-2007, 11:35 AM

Dola - I guess your point is more about whether $20M per year is worth it if Ichiro gets forced to LF or RF. First, I suspect that Ichiro will remain in CF for a long time - the way he keeps himself in shape, I think he's going to age very gracefully. Second, as that article I linked to argues, his contract is not at all out of line with the current market (though that assumes he's a CF).

Ksyrup · 07-12-2007, 12:26 PM

"After the New York Yankees on Wednesday indicated they would break from tradition and negotiate during the season with Alex Rodriguez on a contract extension, his agent moved in quickly to define what it would take to keep the superstar third baseman playing in New York.

And that would be unprecedented millions per season.

In a telephone interview with the New York Post, Scott Boras said Rodriguez assuredly will become Major League Baseball's first $30 million-a-year player.

However, Boras said he will not take up the Yankees' offer to negotiate before the season ends.

"We are not going to be negotiating during the season," Boras said. Boras insisted he could see no way that strategy will change, saying "This is Alex's decision. This has been his policy, and I fully expect this to continue to be his policy."

Well, here we go - someone is going to have to blink, and I bet it's not going to be ARod. This HAS to mean he's leaving, because forcing the Yankees to pay $29M they wouldn't otherwise have to would hurt his team. How could he stay with them at that point? I know it's the Yankees and they have more money than they know what to do with, but saving $29M is still significant, even to the Yankees.

EDIT: I guess the only loophole here is that he has 2 weeks after the season ends to decide whether to opt out, so technically he could wait until the season ends and then negotiate a deal with the Yankees before he has to decide to opt out. We'll see if the Yankees soften there stance on negotiating after the season, though.

Logan · 07-12-2007, 12:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

As far as ARod looking bad, you don't think Yankees fans are going to go apeshit that he's talked about wanting to stay, they've finally warmed up to him, and then he leaves? Even if you understand the move financially, it's not like he's going to get THAT much more from another team than the Yankees would offer. And since I still hear stuff about how he just goes where the money is, dating back to the Seattle/Texas thing, I think he'd get even more shit for this move nationally.

That's not to say I wouldn't mind seeing him leave. In fact, I'd love for him to take out a full-page ad in the NY papers blasting the fans for not supporting him while he was struggling and then jumping on the bandwagon when he was doing well, and that he wanted to go a team where the fans would support him through thick and thin. It would be hilarious if he came out with a statement about how, at this point in his career, all he wants is a chance to win the World Series, and he doesn't think the Yankees are in a position to do that! Man that would be awesome.

Everything you've said is still true...but none of this would have been any different if the Yankees didn't come out and offer to start negotiating now. If it never happened, and he ends up opting-out and signing elsewhere, the fans will go apeshit when he returns anyway. That's my point...the Yankees' maneuver didn't change a thing.

Ksyrup · 07-12-2007, 12:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Logan

Everything you've said is still true...but none of this would have been any different if the Yankees didn't come out and offer to start negotiating now. If it never happened, and he ends up opting-out and signing elsewhere, the fans will go apeshit when he returns anyway. That's my point...the Yankees' maneuver didn't change a thing.

I still think it makes the Yankees look like they covered their bases and gave it their best effort if he leaves. Might not change the perception of ARod too much, but putting the ball back in his court this early is good PR for the team in case things turn out badly. That might be all they hoped to get out of this.

Ksyrup · 07-12-2007, 01:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dawgfan

Latest numbers I'm seeing on his rumored deal are a little lower - it might be $90M for 5 years.

Official word of Ichiro's new five-year contract extension to remain with the Mariners through the 2012 season is expected to come at a Friday news conference.

As of Wednesday afternoon, the deal — which is expected to exceed $100 million in total value — remained unsigned, but is expected to be finalized soon, according to sources. Ichiro's agent, Tony Attanasio, was said to be tied up all day in court watching his son try a case.

Ksyrup · 07-12-2007, 01:48 PM

I hope they added a 6th year...

dawgfan · 07-12-2007, 02:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I hope they added a 6th year...

I'm not sure I do. Even though I think Ichiro is the kind of athlete that will remain in outstanding condition as he ages, and even though $20M+ per year is still below market value for Ichiro (as referenced in a previous post), I'd rather limit the M's vulnerability in case something unexpectedly bad happens with Ichiro.

Ksyrup · 07-12-2007, 02:20 PM

I'm still not sure I agree he's worth that much per year at his age. All I was suggesting is that $100M over 6 years seems more palatable to me than $100 over 5 years. The payout is still the same, so I'm not sure how they are limiting their vulnerability over 5 years as opposed to 6. If anything, they would be deferring payment by spreading it over an additional year.

dawgfan · 07-12-2007, 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

The payout is still the same, so I'm not sure how they are limiting their vulnerability over 5 years as opposed to 6. If anything, they would be deferring payment by spreading it over an additional year.

Well, it all depends on how they do their accounting when budgeting yearly payroll. If it's a 5 year deal and they decide to part ways with Ichiro, that theoretically clears $20M from the payroll to spend elsewhere, as opposed to a 6 year deal where they still have $16.7M tied up. Now, Ichiro could make it all a moot point by aging gracefully, and by the time this contract ends the amount of money we're talking about could be what the going rate for a Jeff Weaver is (i.e. a middling 5th starter).

As for whether Ichiro is worth that money, well, I guess it depends on how much value you put into stats like Runs Created, how much faith you have in the number crunching guys like Tom Tango have done on examining contracts and extracting the value per win above replacement player level of recent deals, and how well you expect Ichiro to age. Based off of what deals like those for Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Juan Pierre, etc., it can (and has been) argued that$20M per year for Ichiro is a bargain.

MikeVic · 07-12-2007, 02:35 PM

If Ichiro signs for $20M+, and Seatle decides to trade him down the line... I doubt the team that gets him would agree to the entire salary. So Seattle would still be on the hook for a large part of the salary. I would think that 100M/6 is better than 100M/5.

Ksyrup · 07-12-2007, 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dawgfan

Well, it all depends on how they do their accounting when budgeting yearly payroll. If it's a 5 year deal and they decide to part ways with Ichiro, that theoretically clears $20M from the payroll to spend elsewhere, as opposed to a 6 year deal where they still have $16.7M tied up. Now, Ichiro could make it all a moot point by aging gracefully, and by the time this contract ends the amount of money we're talking about could be what the going rate for a Jeff Weaver is (i.e. a middling 5th starter).

As for whether Ichiro is worth that money, well, I guess it depends on how much value you put into stats like Runs Created, how much faith you have in the number crunching guys like Tom Tango have done on examining contracts and extracting the value per win above replacement player level of recent deals, and how well you expect Ichiro to age. Based off of what deals like those for Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Juan Pierre, etc., it can (and has been) argued that$20M per year for Ichiro is a bargain.

I'd say it has more to do with his age. He'll be 34 when the extension kicks in. Maybe if he was 3 years younger, but I'm not sure I'd want to take the chance now. I also realize the reality of him being their biggest attraction, so they have to take that chance.

dawgfan · 07-12-2007, 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeVic

If Ichiro signs for $20M+, and Seatle decides to trade him down the line... I doubt the team that gets him would agree to the entire salary. So Seattle would still be on the hook for a large part of the salary. I would think that 100M/6 is better than 100M/5.

Sure, that's more palatable to another team. But let's keep this in mind - outside of a few seasons here and there where salaries stagnate, the going rate for players keeps rising. Even assuming some decline in Ichiro's performance due to aging, there's a fair chance that salary inflation will outpace that assumed decline and Ichiro will remain paid at or below market value during the length of his contract.

st.cronin · 07-12-2007, 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dawgfan

Sure, that's more palatable to another team. But let's keep this in mind - outside of a few seasons here and there where salaries stagnate, the going rate for players keeps rising. Even assuming some decline in Ichiro's performance due to aging, there's a fair chance that salary inflation will outpace that assumed decline and Ichiro will remain paid at or below market value during the length of his contract.

Can you give some examples of that actually happening, a player signing one of the richest contracts in baseball, and then down the road his salary is a bargain?

dawgfan · 07-12-2007, 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I'd say it has more to do with his age. He'll be 34 when the extension kicks in. Maybe if he was 3 years younger, but I'm not sure I'd want to take the chance now. I also realize the reality of him being their biggest attraction, so they have to take that chance.

Understood. But he's in the upper echelon of athletes in terms of how fit he is and how he takes care of himself. One of the few criticisms of him around town is that Ichiro rarely dives in the outfield to try to make a catch, and you almost never see him fly into a wall or the stands or to the ground with great impact. And while that's true, and it may cost the M's an out here and there, I think it also speaks to Ichiro's longevity and his chances of remaining healthy and productive for a long time.

It's obviously all speculative at this point, and there aren't a lot of good reference points in baseball history for a guy like Ichiro, but I don't think he's a player that's going to fall of a cliff in terms of performance as he gets older - I think he's going to age very well.

And yes, there are obviously factors outside of his performance that play a part in the M's wanting to lock him into another extension - he's the team's biggest star, they are winning again and don't want to lose the key piece to the team, there's the long history of superstar athletes leaving Seattle and not wanting to let Ichiro be the next one, his obvious added draw from Japan and Japanese fans (and the Nintendo ownership connection) - but I really do think a strong argument can be made to justify the deal strictly on on-field performance terms.

dawgfan · 07-12-2007, 03:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Can you give some examples of that actually happening, a player signing one of the richest contracts in baseball, and then down the road his salary is a bargain?

Derek Jeter for one. When you consider that Scott Boras is right and that A-Rod is probably going to get around $30M per year, and when you look at recent deals for Vernon Wells (7 years/$126M), Carlos Lee (6 years/$112M) and Carlos Beltran (7 years/$119M), Jeter's average of $18M per season looks pretty good for the Yankees.

Logan · 07-12-2007, 03:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dawgfan

Derek Jeter for one. When you consider that Scott Boras is right and that A-Rod is probably going to get around $30M per year, and when you look at recent deals for Vernon Wells (7 years/$126M), Carlos Lee (6 years/$112M) and Carlos Beltran (7 years/$119M), Jeter's average of $18M per season looks pretty good for the Yankees.

He'll get a new deal if A-Rod opts-out/re-signs with the Yankees.

Logan · 07-12-2007, 04:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Logan

Talk about something that doesn't make an ounce of sense...word out of the Mets camp for the past couple years has been how great an "instructor" Rickey is -- he helped Reyes, for example, learn how to be a great base stealer. But is Rickey really going to spend hours breaking down game tape of pitchers to pick up on tendencies? Spend hours breaking down tape of Delgado's at bats from last season to see what he's doing wrong now, and how to correct it? For some reason I have my doubts.

Thankfully, it seems that someone might have jumped the gun a bit on Rickey. The hitting coach was fired, and Rickey was added to the staff. The hitting coach position has not been filled yet -- it's still under discussion. It will either be Rickey, or hopefully (Please God) current 1b coach Howard Johnson. HoJo has already served as a hitting instructor in the organization, so that would make more sense. Plus, Rickey would be a great guy to have giving tips to guys on 1st waiting to steal or get a good jump off the base.

Jas_lov · 07-12-2007, 04:32 PM

Every interview A-Rod has done he's said that he wants to finish his career as a Yankee. If he still feels that way then they'll probably try and get something done, but I'm not sure they can afford him especially without Texas's help for the next couple years because they'll have a ton of money tied up in old/declining players like Damon, Giambi, Pavano, Mussina, Pettitte has a $16 million player option which he'll take.

Add to this they have to sign fan favorites Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera who are also getting up their in age, but are still very effective.

Also, Chien Ming Wang and Robinson Cano played for peanuts this year and will need new deals. Wang is their ace and is on pace for another 18+ win season so he should get big money. Cano isn't having as good a year, but I imagine the yankees will want to keep him.

So after all of this and needing a new right fielder to replace bobby abreu, will the yankees be able to afford A-Rod?

Ksyrup · 07-12-2007, 10:30 PM

Tigers got screwed on a no-call on an interference play, but Pudge went nuts, bumped the ump, and got tossed. I imagine he'll be suspended for 4 or 5 days.

DeToxRox · 07-12-2007, 10:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Tigers got screwed on a no-call on an interference play, but Pudge went nuts, bumped the ump, and got tossed. I imagine he'll be suspended for 4 or 5 days.

Pudge was as fired up as I've ever seen him.

Miller continues to impress me, though he's throwing a lot of pitches considering he is more likely then most to only get around 90 pitches a start for the most part which means our pen will be in by the middle of 6th or start of 7.

DeToxRox · 07-12-2007, 10:47 PM

FWIW .. Gary Sheffield is on pace for a potential 30/30 season

Lathum · 07-12-2007, 10:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

Every interview A-Rod has done he's said that he wants to finish his career as a Yankee. If he still feels that way then they'll probably try and get something done, but I'm not sure they can afford him especially without Texas's help for the next couple years because they'll have a ton of money tied up in old/declining players like Damon, Giambi, Pavano, Mussina, Pettitte has a $16 million player option which he'll take.

Add to this they have to sign fan favorites Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera who are also getting up their in age, but are still very effective.

Also, Chien Ming Wang and Robinson Cano played for peanuts this year and will need new deals. Wang is their ace and is on pace for another 18+ win season so he should get big money. Cano isn't having as good a year, but I imagine the yankees will want to keep him.

So after all of this and needing a new right fielder to replace bobby abreu, will the yankees be able to afford A-Rod?

your kidding, right?

they could pay him 50 million if they wanted to, they have an endless supply of money.

Ksyrup · 07-12-2007, 10:53 PM

Some bizarre crap going on in the Tigers/Mariners game. The umps must still be on vacation.

DeToxRox · 07-12-2007, 10:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

your kidding, right?

they could pay him 50 million if they wanted to, they have an endless supply of money.

That's true to an extent. But if A-Rod opts out, the Rangers no longer pay a big portion of his salary which means the Yanks now have to finally pony up the entire amount every season and by all accounts I've read, that is something they are not thrilled about doing.

k0ruptr · 07-12-2007, 11:13 PM

just a bystander comment on the Ichiro thing - He seems like the type of player the should age very well, and continue his hitting and speed with no problems.

Not really sure why I see him this way, just makes sense to me for some reason.

Chief Rum · 07-12-2007, 11:20 PM

All right, second half is starting. Reset the table. How's this thing all playing out?

I say Tigers.

k0ruptr · 07-12-2007, 11:23 PM

I call Angels

dawgfan · 07-12-2007, 11:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

All right, second half is starting. Reset the table. How's this thing all playing out?

I say Tigers.

That's a good pick. I'd also say the Red Sox are right there from a talent standpoint. I don't see enough pitching with Cleveland, and the Angels are also struggling a bit with their rotation and don't have quite the lineup that the others have. I'd love to see the M's sneak past someone, but even if they do they're highly unlikely to advance.

I just don't see the best of the NL topping the best of the AL this year.

k0ruptr · 07-12-2007, 11:26 PM

Are the Brewers really going to win the NL Central???

k0ruptr · 07-12-2007, 11:34 PM

Do you guys really think that the Tigers have the Bullpen to go deep in the playoffs?

4 out of their top 5 bullpen guys (per innings pitched) have era's from the High 4's to the 5's. mostly 5+ era's

Andrew Miller being the exception.

I do really like the the Tigers road record (best in the majors), which I value a lot. but that bullpen scares me.

Chief Rum · 07-12-2007, 11:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by k0ruptr

Do you guys really think that the Tigers have the Bullpen to go deep in the playoffs?

4 out of their top 5 bullpen guys (per innings pitched) have era's from the High 4's to the 5's. mostly 5+ era's

Andrew Miller being the exception.

Bingo. That's my one reservation. A good pen is critical. The Tigers just don't have it. If Miller stays in the pen and doesn't go back to the rotation, and if Zumaya comes back and gets in a groove, then they might be decent enough to be carried by a very good offense, and a rotation that is solid.

Can't fault picking the Red Sox or the Angels, IMO. Red Sox are the next best bet. They, too, could be better in the pen, and I'm not as sold on their rotation as I am on Detroit's, but they have the experience and some huge bats.

The Angels are a sleeper pick. They get a lot of flack for offense, but they're currently fifth or sixth in the AL in scoring and still have Juan Rivera coming back. And with improved defense and an excellent pen, they're tough to beat in close games. I am more concerned about the rotation right now. Lackey and Escobar form one of the best one-two combos in the league, and Weaver is a solid #3. But Colon and Santana literally don't deserve to even be called #4 and #5 right now. As an Angels fan, I am almost penciling in a loss when either go to the mound. The good news is Colon is a second half pitcher, and at some point (I hope) someone with the team will figure out we have a better pitcher than Santana in Joe Saunders sitting at AAA.

But that's a lot of ifs, so I go with the Tigers.

Ditto on the NL. Sheep for the slaughter.

ISiddiqui · 07-12-2007, 11:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Ditto on the NL. Sheep for the slaughter.

You mean like last year?

Chief Rum · 07-12-2007, 11:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by k0ruptr

Are the Brewers really going to win the NL Central???

I don't think so. That's not to rip them. They'll be solid the rest of the year. But the Cubs have been at times just terrible, and played their worst ball, and yet, they're still in sight of the Brew Crew. I think the Cubbies catch them in the end, and the Brewers end up in a dog fight with the Braves and the two losers of the NL West divisional fight for the wildcard.

Speaking of wildcard, BTW, I think the most intriguing pennant race will be the AL's wildcard. Yanks, M's (assuming they don't catch the Angels), Indians (assuming they don't catch the Tigers) and Twins look set for a round robin cage battle. And with their second half success tendencies, even the A's could sneak into the conversation.

Chief Rum · 07-12-2007, 11:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

You mean like last year?

Heh, heh, yeah, I know. Sorry, a fluke's a fluke. That was the worst World Series winner in history by winning percentage. Just goes to show you how playing well at the right time can really pay dividends. I still struggle to debate if they are truly the worst WS champ ever, because I think they had more talent than the '88 Dodgers. I still have no clue how they beat not one, but two powerhouse squads that postseason.

dawgfan · 07-12-2007, 11:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

You mean like last year?

Anything is possible in a 7-game series. I have serious doubts any of the NL teams are as good as the top AL teams, but any team that makes the playoffs has a legit shot if they get hot and/or the breaks bounce their way.

dawgfan · 07-12-2007, 11:55 PM

Well, I guess we'll see if Putz is suffering any emotional aftereffects from the All-Star game. Dude has been unbelievably clutch all year, and he's got as tough and as important a save opportunity as he's faced all year.

ISiddiqui · 07-12-2007, 11:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dawgfan

Anything is possible in a 7-game series. I have serious doubts any of the NL teams are as good as the top AL teams, but any team that makes the playoffs has a legit shot if they get hot and/or the breaks bounce their way.

Exactly the right point. Doesn't matter if you call them a 'fluke' or if you don't think they have enough talent to determine that any team in a World Series is "sheep for the slaughter" is ignoring the randomness in a 7 game series and the potential streakiness of both teams (for example, I don't think anyone thinks, say, the 2003 Florida Marlins were a better team than the 2003 New York Yankees... but in a 7 game series at the end of the 2003 season... well, they were).

Chief Rum · 07-12-2007, 11:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dawgfan

Anything is possible in a 7-game series. I have serious doubts any of the NL teams are as good as the top AL teams, but any team that makes the playoffs has a legit shot if they get hot and/or the breaks bounce their way.

My bro (an NL fan) and I talk about this all the time. We generally agree (much to his dismay) that in ranking quality squads, you have to go through at least five AL teams before you can even start talking about the best NL team.

Chief Rum · 07-13-2007, 12:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Exactly the right point. Doesn't matter if you call them a 'fluke' or if you don't think they have enough talent to determine that any team in a World Series is "sheep for the slaughter" is ignoring the randomness in a 7 game series and the potential streakiness of both teams (for example, I don't think anyone thinks, say, the 2003 Florida Marlins were a better team than the 2003 New York Yankees... but in a 7 game series at the end of the 2003 season... well, they were).

We're talking pro athletes here. Anything can happen. No one gets to that level without being good. That doesn't mean the odds aren't heavily slanted toward the AL. I stick by my opinion on this one, and feel free to call me on it if I end up wrong.

Jas_lov · 07-13-2007, 12:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

your kidding, right?

they could pay him 50 million if they wanted to, they have an endless supply of money.

If they could pay him that much this wouldn't be an issue. The point was with all of these other players they need to sign they need Texas to help pay the bill for the next couple years, and those large terrible contracts for worthless players come off the books. Throw in the additional luxury tax they'll have to pay for an even bigger payroll than they have now and it'll get pretty expensive to keep A-Rod if they have to pay the entire $30 million.

dawgfan · 07-13-2007, 12:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dawgfan

Well, I guess we'll see if Putz is suffering any emotional aftereffects from the All-Star game. Dude has been unbelievably clutch all year, and he's got as tough and as important a save opportunity as he's faced all year.

...aaaand he closes another tough game. It's worth noting that, entering tonight's game, Putz's Win Probability Added (courtesy of Fangraphs.com) is tops in the game at 4.03 (next highest pitcher is Dan Haren at 3.14). If he keeps this up, Putz deserves consideration for AL Cy Young.

ISiddiqui · 07-13-2007, 12:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

We're talking pro athletes here. Anything can happen. No one gets to that level without being good. That doesn't mean the odds aren't heavily slanted toward the AL. I stick by my opinion on this one, and feel free to call me on it if I end up wrong.

Sorry, don't buy the "odds heavily slanted" either. There have been enough upsets in World Series history (and two huge ones and one pretty big one [people forget how good the Cards were in 2004 with 105 wins] since 2000) to make me not believe any team that makes it is sheep for the slaughter.

dawgfan · 07-13-2007, 12:15 AM

Oh, and before Schmidty comments, let me pre-empt by acknowledging that the umps were a major factor in the M's winning tonight. But hey, sometimes the blown calls help you, sometimes they hurt you...

Logan · 07-13-2007, 07:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

If they could pay him that much this wouldn't be an issue. The point was with all of these other players they need to sign they need Texas to help pay the bill for the next couple years, and those large terrible contracts for worthless players come off the books. Throw in the additional luxury tax they'll have to pay for an even bigger payroll than they have now and it'll get pretty expensive to keep A-Rod if they have to pay the entire $30 million.

All true. They're going to be spending close to $300 million when you factor in the luxury tax if they have to re-sign A-Rod for the full value. "The Yankees can spend all the want" is a bit of a fallacy these days.

Ksyrup · 07-13-2007, 09:10 AM

The Mets cut Julio Franco.

MikeVic · 07-13-2007, 09:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

The Mets cut Julio Franco.

Bad karma, unless Rickey replaces him!

07-12-2007, 09:21 AM	#1352
Ksyrup This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off. Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: In Absentia	I don't see why the 8 year, $241M contract I put together wouldn't make sense, and if he wants to stay with the Yankees, then he HAS to realize that keeping the Rangers on the hook for $29M over the next 3 years is in his best interests. If his plan is to opt out and he honestly thinks the Yankees would then negotiate a deal in the same range, why would they? He just fucked them out of $30M of Tim Hicks' money? So I guess this means he either tells Boras to stuff it and signs for around $250M with the Yanks in the next few weeks, or they opt out and he almost certainly goes elsewhere. Like I said, I can't see him being able to come back to the Yankees after costing them $30M. My inclination would be to make him an offer, subtract the $29M, and tell him to take it or leave it. __________________ M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete."

07-12-2007, 09:25 AM	#1353
Ksyrup This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off. Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: In Absentia	As far as ARod looking bad, you don't think Yankees fans are going to go apeshit that he's talked about wanting to stay, they've finally warmed up to him, and then he leaves? Even if you understand the move financially, it's not like he's going to get THAT much more from another team than the Yankees would offer. And since I still hear stuff about how he just goes where the money is, dating back to the Seattle/Texas thing, I think he'd get even more shit for this move nationally. That's not to say I wouldn't mind seeing him leave. In fact, I'd love for him to take out a full-page ad in the NY papers blasting the fans for not supporting him while he was struggling and then jumping on the bandwagon when he was doing well, and that he wanted to go a team where the fans would support him through thick and thin. It would be hilarious if he came out with a statement about how, at this point in his career, all he wants is a chance to win the World Series, and he doesn't think the Yankees are in a position to do that! Man that would be awesome. __________________ M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." Last edited by Ksyrup : 07-12-2007 at 09:27 AM.

07-12-2007, 12:26 PM	#1356
Ksyrup This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off. Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: In Absentia	"After the New York Yankees on Wednesday indicated they would break from tradition and negotiate during the season with Alex Rodriguez on a contract extension, his agent moved in quickly to define what it would take to keep the superstar third baseman playing in New York. And that would be unprecedented millions per season. In a telephone interview with the New York Post, Scott Boras said Rodriguez assuredly will become Major League Baseball's first $30 million-a-year player. However, Boras said he will not take up the Yankees' offer to negotiate before the season ends. "We are not going to be negotiating during the season," Boras said. Boras insisted he could see no way that strategy will change, saying "This is Alex's decision. This has been his policy, and I fully expect this to continue to be his policy." Well, here we go - someone is going to have to blink, and I bet it's not going to be ARod. This HAS to mean he's leaving, because forcing the Yankees to pay $29M they wouldn't otherwise have to would hurt his team. How could he stay with them at that point? I know it's the Yankees and they have more money than they know what to do with, but saving $29M is still significant, even to the Yankees. EDIT: I guess the only loophole here is that he has 2 weeks after the season ends to decide whether to opt out, so technically he could wait until the season ends and then negotiate a deal with the Yankees before he has to decide to opt out. We'll see if the Yankees soften there stance on negotiating after the season, though. __________________ M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." Last edited by Ksyrup : 07-12-2007 at 12:28 PM.

07-12-2007, 01:48 PM	#1360
Ksyrup This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off. Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: In Absentia	I hope they added a 6th year... __________________ M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete."

07-12-2007, 02:20 PM	#1362
Ksyrup This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off. Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: In Absentia	I'm still not sure I agree he's worth that much per year at his age. All I was suggesting is that $100M over 6 years seems more palatable to me than $100 over 5 years. The payout is still the same, so I'm not sure how they are limiting their vulnerability over 5 years as opposed to 6. If anything, they would be deferring payment by spreading it over an additional year. __________________ M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete."

07-12-2007, 11:35 AM	#1355
dawgfan Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Seattle	Dola - I guess your point is more about whether $20M per year is worth it if Ichiro gets forced to LF or RF. First, I suspect that Ichiro will remain in CF for a long time - the way he keeps himself in shape, I think he's going to age very gracefully. Second, as that article I linked to argues, his contract is not at all out of line with the current market (though that assumes he's a CF).

07-12-2007, 02:35 PM	#1364
MikeVic Head Coach Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Hometown of Canada	If Ichiro signs for $20M+, and Seatle decides to trade him down the line... I doubt the team that gets him would agree to the entire salary. So Seattle would still be on the hook for a large part of the salary. I would think that 100M/6 is better than 100M/5.

07-12-2007, 04:32 PM	#1372
Jas_lov College Starter Join Date: Oct 2000	Every interview A-Rod has done he's said that he wants to finish his career as a Yankee. If he still feels that way then they'll probably try and get something done, but I'm not sure they can afford him especially without Texas's help for the next couple years because they'll have a ton of money tied up in old/declining players like Damon, Giambi, Pavano, Mussina, Pettitte has a $16 million player option which he'll take. Add to this they have to sign fan favorites Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera who are also getting up their in age, but are still very effective. Also, Chien Ming Wang and Robinson Cano played for peanuts this year and will need new deals. Wang is their ace and is on pace for another 18+ win season so he should get big money. Cano isn't having as good a year, but I imagine the yankees will want to keep him. So after all of this and needing a new right fielder to replace bobby abreu, will the yankees be able to afford A-Rod?

07-12-2007, 10:30 PM	#1373
Ksyrup This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off. Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: In Absentia	Tigers got screwed on a no-call on an interference play, but Pudge went nuts, bumped the ump, and got tossed. I imagine he'll be suspended for 4 or 5 days. __________________ M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete."

07-12-2007, 10:47 PM	#1375
DeToxRox Head Coach Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Michigan	FWIW .. Gary Sheffield is on pace for a potential 30/30 season

07-12-2007, 10:53 PM	#1377
Ksyrup This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off. Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: In Absentia	Some bizarre crap going on in the Tigers/Mariners game. The umps must still be on vacation. __________________ M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete."

07-12-2007, 11:13 PM	#1379
k0ruptr Pro Starter Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Las Vegas	just a bystander comment on the Ichiro thing - He seems like the type of player the should age very well, and continue his hitting and speed with no problems. Not really sure why I see him this way, just makes sense to me for some reason. __________________ Xbox Live Gamertag: k0ruptr My Favorite Teams : Chicago White Sox - Carolina Panthers - Orlando Magic - Phoenix Suns - Anaheim Ducks - Hawaii Warriors - Oregon Ducks

07-12-2007, 11:20 PM	#1380
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	All right, second half is starting. Reset the table. How's this thing all playing out? I say Tigers.

07-12-2007, 11:23 PM	#1381
k0ruptr Pro Starter Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Las Vegas	I call Angels __________________ Xbox Live Gamertag: k0ruptr My Favorite Teams : Chicago White Sox - Carolina Panthers - Orlando Magic - Phoenix Suns - Anaheim Ducks - Hawaii Warriors - Oregon Ducks

07-12-2007, 11:26 PM	#1383
k0ruptr Pro Starter Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Las Vegas	Are the Brewers really going to win the NL Central??? __________________ Xbox Live Gamertag: k0ruptr My Favorite Teams : Chicago White Sox - Carolina Panthers - Orlando Magic - Phoenix Suns - Anaheim Ducks - Hawaii Warriors - Oregon Ducks

07-12-2007, 11:34 PM	#1384
k0ruptr Pro Starter Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Las Vegas	Do you guys really think that the Tigers have the Bullpen to go deep in the playoffs? 4 out of their top 5 bullpen guys (per innings pitched) have era's from the High 4's to the 5's. mostly 5+ era's Andrew Miller being the exception. I do really like the the Tigers road record (best in the majors), which I value a lot. but that bullpen scares me. __________________ Xbox Live Gamertag: k0ruptr My Favorite Teams : Chicago White Sox - Carolina Panthers - Orlando Magic - Phoenix Suns - Anaheim Ducks - Hawaii Warriors - Oregon Ducks Last edited by k0ruptr : 07-12-2007 at 11:36 PM.

07-12-2007, 11:55 PM	#1390
dawgfan Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Seattle	Well, I guess we'll see if Putz is suffering any emotional aftereffects from the All-Star game. Dude has been unbelievably clutch all year, and he's got as tough and as important a save opportunity as he's faced all year.

07-13-2007, 12:15 AM	#1397
dawgfan Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Seattle	Oh, and before Schmidty comments, let me pre-empt by acknowledging that the umps were a major factor in the M's winning tonight. But hey, sometimes the blown calls help you, sometimes they hurt you...

07-13-2007, 09:10 AM	#1399
Ksyrup This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off. Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: In Absentia	The Mets cut Julio Franco. __________________ M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete."

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