Werewolf XLVIII - The horror of sorcery hill (Game over) - Page 28

hoopsguy · 07-10-2007, 01:08 PM

Telle, can I get your thoughts on who is a wolf?

Seriously dead so far today.

LoneStarGirl · 07-10-2007, 01:11 PM

I dont think Telle has left this thread in 4 days... he must really love Werewolf

Lathum · 07-10-2007, 01:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

I dont think Telle has left this thread in 4 days... he must really love Werewolf

Telle= Mrs. Render

hoopsguy · 07-10-2007, 01:23 PM

Telle = Mrs. Pass, I believe.

hoopsguy · 07-10-2007, 01:23 PM

Oh wait, isn't that Lurker?

Passacaglia · 07-10-2007, 01:23 PM

I was really hoping Telle would pop in yesterday and give a rousing defense of RendeR. Or at least joined him for a duet.

Passacaglia · 07-10-2007, 01:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Oh wait, isn't that Lurker?

This post is right, and so is Lathum's.

hoopsguy · 07-10-2007, 01:54 PM

So, whenever the rest of the people that are still alive in this game want to join me for some discussion, that would be cool.

No offense to the dead guys

Alan T · 07-10-2007, 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

So, whenever the rest of the people that are still alive in this game want to join me for some discussion, that would be cool.

No offense to the dead guys

Hoopsguy = Bruce Willis?

"I see dead people"

Telle · 07-10-2007, 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I was really hoping Telle would pop in yesterday and give a rousing defense of RendeR. Or at least joined him for a duet.

Well I didn't get to the end of this gigantic thread until just now. It is rather entertaining though

hoopsguy · 07-10-2007, 02:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

Hoopsguy = Bruce Willis?

"I see dead people"

Come out to Sorcery Hill. We'll get together ... have a few laughs.

path12 · 07-10-2007, 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

So, whenever the rest of the people that are still alive in this game want to join me for some discussion, that would be cool.

No offense to the dead guys

I'm putting something together right now.

path12 · 07-10-2007, 02:32 PM

OK, here is my premise. Since RendeR was a first time wolf, I thought if I go through his posts and see what he had to say about and to those of us who are still alive, that we might get some idea about where to go today. So:

Quote:

Originally Posted by RendeR post 345

UNVOTE LSG
VOTE BARKEEP

This was a last minute switch (9:59 PM) to Barkeep that still kept him 1 short of a tie.

Quote:

Originally Posted by RendeR post 347

My reasons for voting LSG weren't strong enough to hold it that way and other have made some small case for BK so I went there instead.

Explaining the prior vote.

Quote:

Originally Posted by RendeR post 714

Excuse me? Just how do you back this claim up? You could be night killed just like everyone else...Unless of course...

In response to hoops' mention about not getting night killed.

Quote:

Originally Posted by RendeR post 760

I'm beginning to think the Pass, path, ntn, hoops etc group that has been doing all the real talking may well be the wolves carrying on their own campaign of deceit.

Quote:

Originally Posted by RendeR post 801

path is one of the others, I still have this nagging sensation that you're playing a very devious game of data mining and night kill setups...its so open as to seem transparent, and thats what bothers me...

Quote:

Originally Posted by RendeR post 881

I'm going to assume that was the holy water?

ANd yes, that would appear to clear BK completely in my book =)

Quote:

Originally Posted by RendeR post 927

We're past day 2 and he's still alive?

In response to why hoops might be a wolf.

Quote:

Originally Posted by RendeR post 985

Your vote carries a lot fo weight with me BK, based on all the other info about you, How solid are you on the trust in LSG? I'm willing to move if someone offers up some serious trust or vouches for LSG.

Quote:

Originally Posted by RendeR post 1026

Ok THIS post just reeks of a wolf scared out of his heavy woolen cloak. You've been on my list as well hoops and this sudden cheering for people to vote for 1 person and then pushing pass to swing his vote elsewhere is just too suspisiouc to me.

In response to a post by hoops.

So, the question is does this tell us anything. The mentions of those still alive:

hoops -- suggests may be a wolf four times and votes for him once.
path -- suggests may be a wolf two times, no votes.
ntn -- suggests may be a wolf once, no votes.
barkeep -- votes for once at deadline with explanation afterward. says the holy water clears him. also says that he trusts his judgement.
chief -- no mention.

I find the mentions regarding Barkeep most interesting. A last minute switch that does not put him in actual danger of getting lynched. No mention of suspicion about him before or after this point, as a matter of fact says he trusts him.

After going through this, I end up wondering most about Barkeep and Chief Rum.

VOTE BARKEEP

hoopsguy · 07-10-2007, 02:36 PM

Path, if you are going to head for one of those two I think Rum makes more sense. BK's switch at 9:00PM helped hang Ardent instead of me.

Obviously that doesn't mean jack if you think that BK and I could be wolves together, along with Ardent. But that would make all three of us idiots for putting ourselves in that position. So if you accept that I am a villager, and I was lined up against a wolf (Ardent), then what motivation would BK have to swing his vote right at the deadline?

path12 · 07-10-2007, 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Path, if you are going to head for one of those two I think Rum makes more sense. BK's switch at 9:00PM helped hang Ardent instead of me.

Obviously that doesn't mean jack if you think that BK and I could be wolves together, along with Ardent. But that would make all three of us idiots for putting ourselves in that position. So if you accept that I am a villager, and I was lined up against a wolf (Ardent), then what motivation would BK have to swing his vote right at the deadline?

Fair point and I didn't take that into account. I'm thinking there's one wolf left -- none of RendeR's other threats seemed to come to fruition yesterday so I discount the conversion talk.

And Chief's omission from Render's posts is interesting also. I will say that after going through those I feel much better about you than I did.

path12 · 07-10-2007, 02:55 PM

Dola, what are your thoughts about ntn?

hoopsguy · 07-10-2007, 03:03 PM

The crux of the issue for me is whether the wolves were caught flat-footed at the end with my vote with AE. I believe they would like to avoid being grouped together, so that at least one of them would vote for AE. If they knew a tie was helping their cause by no lynch (I'm planning to search on this when I get home tonight) then they had to feel pretty secure about their position.

Would Chief, as a wolf, have gotten a ball rolling on AE knowing that there was a good chance I would follow him, instead of jumping on the status quo between you and I as villagers (if you are a villager)? It doesn't seem to hold much value for that day, but might have played well the following day. I'm not sure how much of a reach this is or not. And I'm not sure what to make of his post-lynch comments where he didn't want to take credit for "getting" AE, which would normally be credit a wolf would want if they had sacrificed one of their own.

NTN came in as the third vote on Ardent, making it a little more interesting. The wolves still had RendeR hanging out on LSG, who then flipped over to make it 5-3 as we headed into the final 15-20 minutes. Would he have moved off Ardent and over to me with another minute or two of time? Not sure.

If the wolves were united on me, well you (Path) are the only one left who voted in that direction at this point.

I'm thinking that search on the ties could be compelling. I would encourage someone else to conduct a parallel effort (just search "tie" every page) in the event that the wolves have a silence potion or something else that could prevent posting as we head down the stretch tonight.

hoopsguy · 07-10-2007, 03:08 PM

NTN has been my most consistent supporter this game. He passed me an item that would probably have value for the wolves (unless they already had one) earlier in the game. He has generally accepted my viewpoints. I would be more suspicious of him if AE had not been playing the same game before turning on me post-Lathum (later in the day, not coming out firing). However, I don't think the wolves would have multiple people adopt that strategy. Right now I'm leaning towards Chief over you.

I know that I over-analyze situations based on my interactions with people, rather than taking the game as a whole. Every once in awhile it provides keen insight, but a lot of the time I start obsessing over a smaller point that I misjudge/misvalue.

Back at you - do you have strong feelings one way or another on NTN?

Path, going back to earlier in the game, why did you react so strongly to my suggestions on the Eternal Bond potion? If you trusted Path, then why did you seem upset that I suggested you pass it to him? I got your vote almost immediately after that, for appearing "wolfish".

Barkeep49 · 07-10-2007, 03:08 PM

path: I don't quite get your evidence against me, honestly. It seems to me that you think I'm a wolf since a wolf voted for me because I wasn't the vote leader at the time, is that correct?

I really think you're falling into the same trap hoops did: I come out vocal against you so you think I'm a wolf. Either that or you are a wolf and know I'm a villager and want to knock me out since time and time again I've been against you.

I think our wolf is either NTN or path. I would love to listen to evidence against ntn, and could be swayed in that direction. However, for reasons I've talked about on multiple days I'm going to stick with path for today.

Vote path

Barkeep49 · 07-10-2007, 03:10 PM

hoops, I'm confused... you think CR started the run on AE as a wolf?

hoopsguy · 07-10-2007, 03:20 PM

Barkeep, Path is the easiest candidate for me to look at because his vote was on me in the AE race.

But wolves always want to avoid linkage, and if they thought the worst they could get was a tie then why not stay split up? RendeR stayed on LSG until the race tightened up to 4-3, then moved over to me. With a minute to go, it was 5-3.

Look at AE's reaction when he learned he was dead. He appeared to be really caught off-guard. Possibly because it didn't need to go down like that? That one of his own was stranded with a vote on him?

I've more or less talked myself believing this position over the course of yesterday and today. Maybe I'm thinking too hard here - they might have just piled on me with the idea of defending "well of course we went after Hoops, look what happened with Lathum!" and hoped that attention didn't go back to AE the next day.

So then it is Chief Rum or NTN. I'm not voting for you for reasons already mentioned - as far as I'm concerned, if you are the last wolf then you are probably going to win this game.

Maybe I should go back and look at voting records and see who conspicuously avoided being grouped with AE and RendeR ... that is project #2 for this evening.

hoopsguy · 07-10-2007, 03:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

hoops, I'm confused... you think CR started the run on AE as a wolf?

What is more likely, CR starting the run with the first vote to make it 4-1 or NTN continuing it as a wolf to make it 4-3. Assuming both know that they have another vote in hand with RendeR sitting on LSG, thus giving them 5 of 9 votes at the time even without their vote?

path12 · 07-10-2007, 03:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

path: I don't quite get your evidence against me, honestly. It seems to me that you think I'm a wolf since a wolf voted for me because I wasn't the vote leader at the time, is that correct?

I really think you're falling into the same trap hoops did: I come out vocal against you so you think I'm a wolf. Either that or you are a wolf and know I'm a villager and want to knock me out since time and time again I've been against you.

I think our wolf is either NTN or path. I would love to listen to evidence against ntn, and could be swayed in that direction. However, for reasons I've talked about on multiple days I'm going to stick with path for today.

Vote path

I'd like to think you'd give me credit to be a better player than to vote you just because you came out against me. I didn't get the reasons why you did (you said it was because I defended you), and that is what piqued my interest more than the fact that you came out against me. Again, I think coming out strong against someone is a technique you use often, so that in itself doesn't say anything IMO.

The reason I put my initial vote your way today after going through Render's posts is not simply because he voted for you.

He voted for you at 9:59. That still put you one short of being lynched and did not save the person who he switched from. It was an odd vote, and one that reeks of a late switch to a fellow wolf in order to be able to say later "hey, I voted for Barkeep", if you had been found lupine. I can't think of any other reason for him to make that switch.

The other thing was that out of the five of us who are left, the only one he mentioned trust for in thread was you. As a first time wolf, I think that is interesting.

Now, he only mentioned ntn in passing and didn't mention Chief at all, so it is very possible that he was bound and determined not to link himself with any of his fellow wolves at all. But I thought the interactions regarding you rang loudest in my mind.

I still don't understand the evidence against me, other than the fact that out of everyone who voted for hoops in the AE/hoops showdown has been outed or killed except for me. Other than that, the argument seems to boil down to the fact that I helped Pass and Swaggs with both items and recipes so that means that I must be trying to elbow my way into a position of trust. And frankly, that is a very weak argument.

hoopsguy · 07-10-2007, 03:45 PM

Votes - I didn't focus on Day 1 but it is easy enough to pull them up. It was the no lynch/lynch discussion.

Day 2:
Ardent - Izulde
RendeR - Barkeep
Path - Izulde
NTN - Path
Rum - Barkeep

Day 3:
Ardent - Lathum
RendeR - Lathum
Path - Lathum
NTN - Barkeep
Chief - Barkeep

Day 4:
Ardent - Hoops
RendeR - Hoops
Path - Hoops
NTN - Ardent
Chief - Ardent

Notice that Path votes in line with both wolves not only on the critical Day 4 vote but also in the non-critical Day 3 vote (non-critical unless BK is a wolf, which again doesn't add up for me). I don't see this as an experienced wolf play. Path is looking good to me here, in an odd sort of way.

So, I'll be deciding between Chief and NTN. Flip a coin? Maybe, but hopefully some post dredging later helps me feel less random about my pick.

Barkeep49 · 07-10-2007, 03:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Barkeep, Path is the easiest candidate for me to look at because his vote was on me in the AE race.

But wolves always want to avoid linkage, and if they thought the worst they could get was a tie then why not stay split up? RendeR stayed on LSG until the race tightened up to 4-3, then moved over to me. With a minute to go, it was 5-3.

Look at AE's reaction when he learned he was dead. He appeared to be really caught off-guard. Possibly because it didn't need to go down like that? That one of his own was stranded with a vote on him?

I've more or less talked myself believing this position over the course of yesterday and today. Maybe I'm thinking too hard here - they might have just piled on me with the idea of defending "well of course we went after Hoops, look what happened with Lathum!" and hoped that attention didn't go back to AE the next day.

So then it is Chief Rum or NTN. I'm not voting for you for reasons already mentioned - as far as I'm concerned, if you are the last wolf then you are probably going to win this game.

Maybe I should go back and look at voting records and see who conspicuously avoided being grouped with AE and RendeR ... that is project #2 for this evening.

Ok, the thing is that Render's vote against you should have been the nail in the coffin. It should have been what won the wolves the game. By getting rid of you they were looking at a 4-3 the next day. If only one villager voted against another villager the wolves would have won the game. At that point, so close to the end of the game, I, as a wolf, would have been willing to risk putting all of the eggs in one basket. As I see it lynching you wins the wolves the game. Lynching anyone else does not. The only way I see CR as a wolf is if Pass had also been a wolf. By making sure AE gets lynched instead of you it effectively builds in trust by being the lynching on a wolf. Otherwise, I just don't see the motivation, in what was an end game, for the wolves to try and make themselves look good by voting for another wolf.

That, path, is the biggest evidence, I feel, against you. I feel your game has been off, but more than that I think the wolves would have been willing to do whatever it took to lynch a villager on that day since essentially it should have won them the game.

Barkeep49 · 07-10-2007, 03:50 PM

Hmm. Hoops voting analysis is interesting, actually. That's fairly good evidence of his innocence.

path12 · 07-10-2007, 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Notice that Path votes in line with both wolves not only on the critical Day 4 vote but also in the non-critical Day 3 vote (non-critical unless BK is a wolf, which again doesn't add up for me). I don't see this as an experienced wolf play. Path is looking good to me here, in an odd sort of way.

Besides the fact that I've had heat on me, now I can see why I haven't been night killed. I'm doing their work for them.

Passacaglia · 07-10-2007, 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Telle

Well I didn't get to the end of this gigantic thread until just now. It is rather entertaining though

If you actually made it through all 28 pages, you should play next time!

path12 · 07-10-2007, 03:53 PM

Well, putting our thoughts together there is really only one option left.

UNVOTE BARKEEP
VOTE NTNDEACON

path12 · 07-10-2007, 03:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

That, path, is the biggest evidence, I feel, against you. I feel your game has been off, but more than that I think the wolves would have been willing to do whatever it took to lynch a villager on that day since essentially it should have won them the game.

I mentioned that before and agree. I haven't been able to read this game at all.

Barkeep49 · 07-10-2007, 03:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

If you actually made it through all 28 pages, you should play next time!

I second that thought.

LoneStarGirl · 07-10-2007, 03:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

If you actually made it through all 28 pages, you should play next time!

Agreed, we need more girls in here (Lurker???) and you can probably sing better than Render too.

Barkeep49 · 07-10-2007, 03:57 PM

So I'm going to go ahead and unvote path, but want to hear what CR thinks before casting my vote against ntn.

Unvote path

Telle · 07-10-2007, 04:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

If you actually made it through all 28 pages, you should play next time!

I'm definitely thinking about it! This looks like fun

path12 · 07-10-2007, 04:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Telle

I'm definitely thinking about it! This looks like fun

Yay! I like having new people play.

ntndeacon · 07-10-2007, 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

The crux of the issue for me is whether the wolves were caught flat-footed at the end with my vote with AE. I believe they would like to avoid being grouped together, so that at least one of them would vote for AE. If they knew a tie was helping their cause by no lynch (I'm planning to search on this when I get home tonight) then they had to feel pretty secure about their position.

Would Chief, as a wolf, have gotten a ball rolling on AE knowing that there was a good chance I would follow him, instead of jumping on the status quo between you and I as villagers (if you are a villager)? It doesn't seem to hold much value for that day, but might have played well the following day. I'm not sure how much of a reach this is or not. And I'm not sure what to make of his post-lynch comments where he didn't want to take credit for "getting" AE, which would normally be credit a wolf would want if they had sacrificed one of their own.

NTN came in as the third vote on Ardent, making it a little more interesting. The wolves still had RendeR hanging out on LSG, who then flipped over to make it 5-3 as we headed into the final 15-20 minutes. Would he have moved off Ardent and over to me with another minute or two of time? Not sure.

I am not sure the question has merit as it is written, for if we have another minite or two, then those votes moving onto Ardent would have happened a minute or two later as well. That is the purpose of last minute shifts to make it impossible to react regardless of where you stand.

As far as my intent, It seemed that there was a start of a movement toward AE when I voted. I expect that there had been a little time to react, then I would have chosen not to react, and stay put.

path12 · 07-10-2007, 04:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Path, going back to earlier in the game, why did you react so strongly to my suggestions on the Eternal Bond potion? If you trusted Path, then why did you seem upset that I suggested you pass it to him? I got your vote almost immediately after that, for appearing "wolfish".

Almost missed this.

I've just spent the last 10 minutes going back through day 2 and 3 and don't see this. I see you mentioning the eternal bond recipe, but I voted for Izulde that day. The next morning I don't see anything either.

ntndeacon · 07-10-2007, 05:11 PM

I need to quickly make a vote here since iwill be out til at least 9:30 Central time. Hopefully I last til then since it seems like a couple folks mistakenly think I a m the last wolf. This probably isn't the best vote for self preservation, since he is yet to vote, but this will at least be somewhere you may look next. since if Idie today, then tomorrow will make or break who wins.

Vote Chief Rum

hoopsguy · 07-10-2007, 06:55 PM

Not much new on my trip home. Guess I'll come back closer to deadline and hope to find people around for the discussion.

st.cronin · 07-10-2007, 06:59 PM

There are four dead people lurking in the forum right now.

Swaggs · 07-10-2007, 07:03 PM

LoneStarGirl · 07-10-2007, 07:18 PM

I think we are all anxious to see who the last bad guy is

Barkeep49 · 07-10-2007, 07:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

I think we are all anxious to see who the last bad guy is

I know I am.

Alan T · 07-10-2007, 07:20 PM

me too!

path12 · 07-10-2007, 07:31 PM

Man, my connection is sloooooooooow. I'll check back later.

Passacaglia · 07-10-2007, 07:40 PM

I told Alan this before, but this is the most interested I've been in a game as a dead person.

Barkeep49 · 07-10-2007, 08:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

me too!

Oh that's reassuring. Even the GM doesn't know who the bad guy is. Man.

hoopsguy · 07-10-2007, 08:09 PM

Just finishing dinner, will be around for final wrap-up chat/vote in about 15 minutes.

hoopsguy · 07-10-2007, 08:28 PM

OK, so does anyone have a vote count?

hoopsguy · 07-10-2007, 08:35 PM

And Telle does not supply the vote count. Boo!

Vote count, as of Post #1399:
NTN - Path (1379)
Rum - NTN (1388)

07-10-2007, 02:55 PM	#1366
path12 Coordinator Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Seattle, WA	Dola, what are your thoughts about ntn? __________________ We have always been at war with Eastasia.

07-10-2007, 03:53 PM	#1379
path12 Coordinator Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Seattle, WA	Well, putting our thoughts together there is really only one option left. UNVOTE BARKEEP VOTE NTNDEACON __________________ We have always been at war with Eastasia.

07-10-2007, 06:59 PM	#1390
st.cronin General Manager Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: New Mexico	There are four dead people lurking in the forum right now. __________________ co-commish: bb-bbcf.net knives out

07-10-2007, 07:03 PM	#1391
Swaggs Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000	Boo! __________________ DOWN WITH HATTRICK!!! The RWBL Are you reading In The Bleachers?

07-10-2007, 07:31 PM	#1395
path12 Coordinator Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Seattle, WA	Man, my connection is sloooooooooow. I'll check back later. __________________ We have always been at war with Eastasia.

07-10-2007, 01:08 PM	#1351
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Telle, can I get your thoughts on who is a wolf? Seriously dead so far today.

07-10-2007, 01:11 PM	#1352
LoneStarGirl College Starter Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Little Rock, AR	I dont think Telle has left this thread in 4 days... he must really love Werewolf

07-10-2007, 01:23 PM	#1354
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Telle = Mrs. Pass, I believe.

07-10-2007, 01:23 PM	#1355
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Oh wait, isn't that Lurker?

07-10-2007, 01:23 PM	#1356
Passacaglia Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Big Ten Country	I was really hoping Telle would pop in yesterday and give a rousing defense of RendeR. Or at least joined him for a duet.

07-10-2007, 01:54 PM	#1358
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	So, whenever the rest of the people that are still alive in this game want to join me for some discussion, that would be cool. No offense to the dead guys

07-10-2007, 02:36 PM	#1364
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Path, if you are going to head for one of those two I think Rum makes more sense. BK's switch at 9:00PM helped hang Ardent instead of me. Obviously that doesn't mean jack if you think that BK and I could be wolves together, along with Ardent. But that would make all three of us idiots for putting ourselves in that position. So if you accept that I am a villager, and I was lined up against a wolf (Ardent), then what motivation would BK have to swing his vote right at the deadline?

07-10-2007, 03:03 PM	#1367
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	The crux of the issue for me is whether the wolves were caught flat-footed at the end with my vote with AE. I believe they would like to avoid being grouped together, so that at least one of them would vote for AE. If they knew a tie was helping their cause by no lynch (I'm planning to search on this when I get home tonight) then they had to feel pretty secure about their position. Would Chief, as a wolf, have gotten a ball rolling on AE knowing that there was a good chance I would follow him, instead of jumping on the status quo between you and I as villagers (if you are a villager)? It doesn't seem to hold much value for that day, but might have played well the following day. I'm not sure how much of a reach this is or not. And I'm not sure what to make of his post-lynch comments where he didn't want to take credit for "getting" AE, which would normally be credit a wolf would want if they had sacrificed one of their own. NTN came in as the third vote on Ardent, making it a little more interesting. The wolves still had RendeR hanging out on LSG, who then flipped over to make it 5-3 as we headed into the final 15-20 minutes. Would he have moved off Ardent and over to me with another minute or two of time? Not sure. If the wolves were united on me, well you (Path) are the only one left who voted in that direction at this point. I'm thinking that search on the ties could be compelling. I would encourage someone else to conduct a parallel effort (just search "tie" every page) in the event that the wolves have a silence potion or something else that could prevent posting as we head down the stretch tonight.

07-10-2007, 03:08 PM	#1368
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	NTN has been my most consistent supporter this game. He passed me an item that would probably have value for the wolves (unless they already had one) earlier in the game. He has generally accepted my viewpoints. I would be more suspicious of him if AE had not been playing the same game before turning on me post-Lathum (later in the day, not coming out firing). However, I don't think the wolves would have multiple people adopt that strategy. Right now I'm leaning towards Chief over you. I know that I over-analyze situations based on my interactions with people, rather than taking the game as a whole. Every once in awhile it provides keen insight, but a lot of the time I start obsessing over a smaller point that I misjudge/misvalue. Back at you - do you have strong feelings one way or another on NTN? Path, going back to earlier in the game, why did you react so strongly to my suggestions on the Eternal Bond potion? If you trusted Path, then why did you seem upset that I suggested you pass it to him? I got your vote almost immediately after that, for appearing "wolfish".

07-10-2007, 03:08 PM	#1369
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	path: I don't quite get your evidence against me, honestly. It seems to me that you think I'm a wolf since a wolf voted for me because I wasn't the vote leader at the time, is that correct? I really think you're falling into the same trap hoops did: I come out vocal against you so you think I'm a wolf. Either that or you are a wolf and know I'm a villager and want to knock me out since time and time again I've been against you. I think our wolf is either NTN or path. I would love to listen to evidence against ntn, and could be swayed in that direction. However, for reasons I've talked about on multiple days I'm going to stick with path for today. Vote path

07-10-2007, 03:10 PM	#1370
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	hoops, I'm confused... you think CR started the run on AE as a wolf?

07-10-2007, 03:20 PM	#1371
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Barkeep, Path is the easiest candidate for me to look at because his vote was on me in the AE race. But wolves always want to avoid linkage, and if they thought the worst they could get was a tie then why not stay split up? RendeR stayed on LSG until the race tightened up to 4-3, then moved over to me. With a minute to go, it was 5-3. Look at AE's reaction when he learned he was dead. He appeared to be really caught off-guard. Possibly because it didn't need to go down like that? That one of his own was stranded with a vote on him? I've more or less talked myself believing this position over the course of yesterday and today. Maybe I'm thinking too hard here - they might have just piled on me with the idea of defending "well of course we went after Hoops, look what happened with Lathum!" and hoped that attention didn't go back to AE the next day. So then it is Chief Rum or NTN. I'm not voting for you for reasons already mentioned - as far as I'm concerned, if you are the last wolf then you are probably going to win this game. Maybe I should go back and look at voting records and see who conspicuously avoided being grouped with AE and RendeR ... that is project #2 for this evening.

07-10-2007, 03:45 PM	#1374
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Votes - I didn't focus on Day 1 but it is easy enough to pull them up. It was the no lynch/lynch discussion. Day 2: Ardent - Izulde RendeR - Barkeep Path - Izulde NTN - Path Rum - Barkeep Day 3: Ardent - Lathum RendeR - Lathum Path - Lathum NTN - Barkeep Chief - Barkeep Day 4: Ardent - Hoops RendeR - Hoops Path - Hoops NTN - Ardent Chief - Ardent Notice that Path votes in line with both wolves not only on the critical Day 4 vote but also in the non-critical Day 3 vote (non-critical unless BK is a wolf, which again doesn't add up for me). I don't see this as an experienced wolf play. Path is looking good to me here, in an odd sort of way. So, I'll be deciding between Chief and NTN. Flip a coin? Maybe, but hopefully some post dredging later helps me feel less random about my pick.

07-10-2007, 03:50 PM	#1376
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	Hmm. Hoops voting analysis is interesting, actually. That's fairly good evidence of his innocence.

07-10-2007, 03:57 PM	#1383
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	So I'm going to go ahead and unvote path, but want to hear what CR thinks before casting my vote against ntn. Unvote path

07-10-2007, 05:11 PM	#1388
ntndeacon Pro Starter Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Alabama	I need to quickly make a vote here since iwill be out til at least 9:30 Central time. Hopefully I last til then since it seems like a couple folks mistakenly think I a m the last wolf. This probably isn't the best vote for self preservation, since he is yet to vote, but this will at least be somewhere you may look next. since if Idie today, then tomorrow will make or break who wins. Vote Chief Rum

07-10-2007, 06:55 PM	#1389
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Not much new on my trip home. Guess I'll come back closer to deadline and hope to find people around for the discussion.

07-10-2007, 07:18 PM	#1392
LoneStarGirl College Starter Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Little Rock, AR	I think we are all anxious to see who the last bad guy is

07-10-2007, 07:20 PM	#1394
Alan T Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Mass.	me too!

07-10-2007, 07:40 PM	#1396
Passacaglia Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Big Ten Country	I told Alan this before, but this is the most interested I've been in a game as a dead person.

07-10-2007, 08:09 PM	#1398
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Just finishing dinner, will be around for final wrap-up chat/vote in about 15 minutes.

07-10-2007, 08:28 PM	#1399
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	OK, so does anyone have a vote count?

07-10-2007, 08:35 PM	#1400
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	And Telle does not supply the vote count. Boo! Vote count, as of Post #1399: NTN - Path (1379) Rum - NTN (1388)

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