Werewolf CLX - Atlantic City - GAME OVER

[Autumn]

DAY EIGHT WINNING BIDS

BLACK MARKET SERVICES - BID AT YOUR OWN RISK
The Money Hole - $0
Nicky the Trigger - $1,955
Smiling Jane Smith - $500

[mauchow]

I did not have that much $

[mauchow]

I had a quarter of that... damn. Hope it was one of the good guys that won it.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Mick "Stones" McGee - $2 - Claimed by Chief Rum
Donna Black Investigations - $5 - Claimed by Jackal
Cookie's Ladies - $1 - Claimed by Coffee
Sandy Back Messenger Service - $3 - Claimed by Narcizo

Coffee Warlord
Narcizo
Chief Rum
The Jackal
Mauchow

Darth Vilus
Path12

Unless someone comes forward and refutes the bid claims, we have 5 people who could not have used the NK last night. Out of 7. (Mau is in there because I sent him hookers).

It's path or DV.

Well shit. This made total sense but there is obviously something wrong with it because I am a villager. Though I understand I'll probably get lynched next. This sucks.

[Coffee Warlord]

Welp. The way I figure it, we can go one of two ways.

1) Path.

2) One of the unscanned people.

Besides that, unless someone has some new blinding burst of insight, we're guessing.

[path12]

Originally Posted by mauchow

I had a quarter of that... damn. Hope it was one of the good guys that won it.

You think it was the good guys bidding today? Not sure about that.

[path12]

Could we still have two mafia out there that vouched for each other yesterday?

[Coffee Warlord]

Basically, unless I'm mistaken, there's only one conceivable way it's not path, and that's if you can do multiple bids.

That said, I really don't see any more logical conclusion than path.

[mauchow]

Hopw was the first word.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Welp. The way I figure it, we can go one of two ways.

1) Path.

2) One of the unscanned people.

Besides that, unless someone has some new blinding burst of insight, we're guessing.

Unscanned is Narcizo, mauchow and you, right?

[Coffee Warlord]

I believe so, yes.

[mauchow]

Jackal was cleared by mafia.

[path12]

For the record, I did not bid today because of my account being inaccessable.

Tomorrow I will get in a vote and a bet but I am leaving early in the morning for the weekend and won't be around to defend myself. What I've already detailed in the past day will have to make my case for me.

Don't think it is going to matter though.

[Coffee Warlord]

So that's 4 freaking people who are basically unscanned. And really, the people who ARE scanned aren't much better off.

[path12]

BTW, I am still being framed or something. Just found out my account now has almost $2000 in it but I am unauthorized. My apartment is being entered when I'm not in it and when I tried to call the bank my phone kept going out.

Basically, looks like the black market consequences kicked in after my bid.

[The Jackal]

I won Nicky, I'm not sure if I'm going to use him yet.

[The Jackal]

There are definitely consequences to my winning this bid, they haven't been outlined but there appear to be people following me.

If I pick right and get the mafia, maybe we win. If I pick wrong, I have no idea what consequences could come from it aside from being down another villager.

My other alternative is to kill no one and put it to another lynch vote, in which case I still might be somewhat compromised, hard to say.

In any event, I should have $0 right now as I spent my whole cash on this hitman - my bet for today was path so I definitely didn't win that.

[The Jackal]

I don't have to decide tonight, I have hockey in the morning from 6-7:20 so I'll still have a solid hour or so to make a decision after that, and hopefully will have had some people chime in.

[The Jackal]

Part of me wants to take out path to ensure we don't have a cunning - if he isn't cunning it would mean either mau was able to avoid the ladies or someone could double bid, unless I'm missing something. I also consider mau for that reasoning, thereby pitting cunning vs bidders. What a mess. Voting doesn't tell us a ton, either.

[The Jackal]

I still think it is very unlikely there was a double bid, based on the rules. It states pretty clearly that players may only bid on one service. Which means if I do kill someone, it will probably be mau or path.

[Coffee Warlord]

Path.

Forgot briefly about the ladies, but yes - if the ladies did work, I can't escape the simple fact that it HAD to have been path or DV who offed Jag (with the rules we are aware of).

[Coffee Warlord]

And if it turns out multiple bids are allowed, or the ladies didn't work and I got no message, or something else like that, I call shenanigans.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

And if it turns out multiple bids are allowed, or the ladies didn't work and I got no message, or something else like that, I call shenanigans.

The one argument in my head that has me even considering mau (aside from the way he was posting last night), is that I can totally see a Don type role that would be immune to that kind of stuff. Maybe the last remaining wolf would automatically gain that power? I'm really just trying to brainstorm vs a plain cunning role, which could also be a Don.

[The Jackal]

I'm going to go look through all the services bought and see if any of them could shed any light on an alternative answer.

[The Jackal]

Mikhail Vavilov, arms dealer - $1,066

That's pretty much the only unknown, I think? We've assumed brutal, and that might still be the case, but I wonder if owning a weapon could repel Donna or the Ladies. I didn't get the sense there was anything fishy with Donna's report though.

[The Jackal]

Wish I had time to go back and see if everyone said how much money they had today - wonder if the mafia or a villager bought the thief.

[The Jackal]

I need to go to sleep soon if I'm gonna wake up in less than 6 hours, will check back in tmw morning.

[The Jackal]

Seriously though, what a mess. I don't recall there being any wolf-specific roles in the first game, but the inclusion of one or a last-wolf mechanic wouldn't be crazy.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

So why DID you bid on the money transfer service mau?

I find it interesting that mau never answered this

[The Jackal]

Ended up watching the end of the third between the kings/blues.. now I should really go to bed

[path12]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Basically, unless I'm mistaken, there's only one conceivable way it's not path, and that's if you can do multiple bids.

That said, I really don't see any more logical conclusion than path.

The only other way I can see is why I wondered about two wolves. For example, if you and mau were both mafia then you could make the bid for the ladies, not actually send them and mau makes the night kill and then says he was with the ladies last night.

That could work with you and mau. Or it could work with Jackal and I.

Or am I missing a basic rule?

[Narcizo]

Meh!

I have the sinking feeling that we're going to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory here.

[Narcizo]

I notice neither Coffee nor Chief have been forthcoming with their bets/bids for the game. At the moment I find that very suspicious. If they don't cough them up then I'm going to vote one of them if I'm still around.

What are we now? 6:1? Or conceivably 5:2?

Everything that Path is saying about his account seems consistent with his account being hijacked and, potentially, used to make a bid yesterday. Of course, Path is a good wolf so he could be making it all up to shift suspicion onto one of the bidders. Thing is. If Path is a wolf why did he make a kill when he, presumably, knew he'd scan as good. Making the kill meant that we opened up the field to include cunnings. Had he not made the bid then CW, CR, Jackal and I would still be suspicious. Had he made the bid but not the kill we would have lynched mau and the DV.

Jackal getting the killer is a result though. I think it gives us at least three bites at the cherry, if there's only one wolf. I'm still worried about the consequences of a villager getting a black market bid in.

And who the fuck went after the thief? If that was a villager they need to 'fess up because I just can't see the logic in the wolf doing anything other than try for the killer in this situation - assuming they have any money. And putting $500 on the thief just seems insane.

So yeah. Coffee and Chief - pony up your bids and bets. I don't care how much you're helping your GF Chief.

[Narcizo]

Right then.

6:1. Jackal whacks a villager. 5:1 - Jackal is in trouble with the mob. We lynch a villager 4:1. Wolf whacks a villager 3:1 we get a scan. We have to lynch the wolf or stop the killer or we lose.

6:1. Jackal doesn't kill anyone. Jackal is, maybe, in less trouble with the mob. We lynch someone 5:1. Wolf whacks a villager 4:1, we possibly get a useful scan. Lynch a villager 3:1. Wolf kills someone 2:1, we possibly get a useful scan. Under this time there's chances for us to get the seer and scan people.

If Path is a wolf then the scheme with tying down the bids will, presumably, work again. If that's the case then we can block the wolf from getting the killer and we can scan till the cows come home. If everyone comes up villager then we know that Path is the baddy.

If Path is a villager then we're can't be sure that the scheme to tie down the bids will work. Jackal kills Path and then I presume everyone lynches mau. We don't know that the wolf won't get the killer, make his kill and potentially leave us in an end game.

I don't think we can lose if Path is the wolf. Which makes it a poor play to kill him now as it gains us nothing other than a quick end to the game if he is the wolf. I kind of believe him as well and I'm getting suspicious of Chief and Coffee and their lack of involvement/interest in taking out "potential" cunnings respectively.

I say don't make a kill Jackal.

[Narcizo]

By the way. In case I die - if the village ever gets in a situation where it's 3:1 then you have to no lynch. (if it's possible).

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by path12

Unscanned is Narcizo, mauchow and you, right?

You're the only one who has been legitimately cleared by a scan.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I notice neither Coffee nor Chief have been forthcoming with their bets/bids for the game.

Obviously, with the thief about they will probably want to hold onto that information until after the deadline.

[Narcizo]

Actually Jackal it might be worth taking the kill if we are allowed to vote no lynch should it get to 3:1. If you kill Path then, hopefully, the money he claims is in his account will disappear. We'll know that we can't pull the bid lockdown trick and that the wolf can, somehow, make two bids. And we won't waste a day lynching Path tomorrow to find that out. It also frees us from the worry that there are two wolves and that's how they managed it - as Path would have to be one part of a two-wolf team if that's the explanation.

The thing is that I kind of buy Path's story and he's hovering just under you and mau in my COT. I don't think he'd make up an account to explain his finances and deliberately mixes up the totals and then comes back to say what went wrong. And then there's the thing that I don't think we can lose if Path is a lone wolf. Even if it seems that he's got over $2000 at his disposal. (I presume that if he's lying he's lying about the amount of money in his account in case we have the chance to check it).

[Narcizo]

I'd say that if you think we're going to lynch Path tomorrow then you might as well take the kill now and get it over with, one way or the other. (assuming we're allowed to no vote if we're at 3:1). If you don't think we'll be lynching him then don't take the kill.

[Narcizo]

Autumn are there any rules about No Lynch?

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I say don't make a kill Jackal.

I say make the kill if you're planning on voting him anyway, Jackal.

[Narcizo]

As no-one has claimed them I'm presuming all unknown bids have been won by wolves.

DAY ONE WINNING BIDS (6 Wolves)
Donna Black Investigations - $1000 - Claimed by Chief Rum, cleared JAG
Cookie's Ladies - $277 - Claimed by JAG, used on Brit
Casino2Casino Wire Transfer - $27 - Claimed by mauchow

BLACKMARKET SERVICES - HIRE AT YOUR OWN RISK
The Money Hole - $402 -
Joe "Creaky" Reitzler - $350 - Claimed by Jackal used on fontisian

DAY TWO WINNING BIDS (5 Wolves)
Mick "Stones" McGee - $800 - Claimed by JAG, used on self
Donna Black Investigations - $1100 Claimed by Zinto, cleared Jackal
Freddie von Maur, Casino Manager - $160 Claimed by Path, won $2079

BLACKMARKET SERVICES - HIRE AT YOUR OWN RISK
Joe "Creaky" Reitzler - $1000 -

DAY THREE WINNING BIDS (5 Wolves)
Mick "Stones" McGee - $380 Claimed by JAG, used on Self
Donna Black Investigations - $1,000 Claimed by Narcizo, cleared DV
Cookie's Ladies - $350 Claimed by mauchow, used on DaddyTorgo
Friends4Life Dating Service - $1,000 claimed by Brit, used on Jackal

BLACKMARKET SERVICES - HIRE AT YOUR OWN RISK
The Money Hole - $500
Joe "Creaky" Reitzler, hitman - $1,100
"Stumpy" Jones, thug - $111 bought by LV (presumably) used on murra5y
Trayvon Michaels, crooked cop - $2 used on Brit

DAY FOUR WINNING BIDS (3 Wolves can bid)
Mick "Stones" McGee - $1,026 Claimed by JAG, used on self
Donna Black Investigations - $800 - Claimed by Path, used on Danny

BLACKMARKET SERVICES - HIRE AT YOUR OWN RISK
Joe "Creaky" Reitzler, hitman - $1,000 - Claimed by Coffee Warlord, used on murra5y

DAY FIVE WINNING BIDS (3 wolves)
Mick "Stones" McGee - $500 - Claimed by Jackal, used on self
Donna Black Investigations - $896 - Claimed by mau, used on Zinto
Casino2Casino Wire Transfer - $125 . Claimed by narcizo, used on ?
Freddie von Maur, Casino Manager - $700

BLACK MARKET SERVICES - HIRE AT YOUR OWN RISK
Joe "Creaky" Reitzler, hitman - $501
Mikhail Vavilov, arms dealer - $1,066

DAY SIX WINNING BIDS (2 wolves)
Mick "Stones" McGee - $1,066 - Claimed by Jag, used on self
Donna Black Investigations - $900 - Claimed by DV, used on Britrock

BLACK MARKET SERVICES - HIRE AT YOUR OWN RISK
Jamie Monteray, hitman - $3,412 - Claimed by Path, used on murra5y

DAY SEVEN WINNING BIDS (1 wolf)
Mick "Stones" McGee - $2 - Claimed by Chief Rum, used on Jackal
Donna Black Investigations - $5 - Claimed by Jackal, used on Path
Cookie's Ladies - $1 - Claimed by Coffee, used on mau
Sandy Back Messenger Service - $3 - Claimed by Narcizo, used on Jackal

BLACK MARKET SERVICES - HIRE AT YOUR OWN RISK
Nicky the Trigger, hitman - $100 -

DAY EIGHT WINNING BIDS (1 wolf)
BLACK MARKET SERVICES - BID AT YOUR OWN RISK
Nicky the Trigger - $1,955 - claimed by Jackal
Smiling Jane Smith - $500

[Narcizo]

Wait a minute we're 5:1 at the moment. No idea why I thought 6:1.

Jackal whacks a villager 4:1. We lynch someone 3:1. Wolf whacks someone 2:1 - we have to lynch the wolf.

Jackal doesn't kill 5:1. We lynch someone 4:1. Wolf whacks someone 3:1. We no lynch vote, wolf whacks someone 2:1 - we have to lynch the wolf

I think I prefer option 2 no matter what in that case. It gives us two shots at getting a seer scan or a bodyguard block or the wolf not getting a kill.

Jackal I don't think you should make a kill Ignore all that rubbish above this.

[Narcizo]

I'm going to presume that there's only one wolf left. More than one and I think we've been stiffed by the game and I call a mulligan. I'm going to presume that Path can be a cunning OR that the wolf could use Path to make a bid on another service day seven. I, personally, tend to think that the second option is the more likely but I seem to be in a minority there. Let's see what we get.

[Narcizo]

Later as I have to go and do some work now.

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I find it interesting that mau never answered this

Not really that interesting. I thought at the beginning of the day that day that I could use it but then realized I didn't want to handicap myself for the rest of the game. Such an exciting answer, yeah?

I have wasted my bid and forgotten to bid on things three or four times. I never bet yesterday on anybody either. I did bet on jackal and path today. Um. What else.

I'm still pretty sure I prevented dt killing anybody with my ladies the night he got it.

[Narcizo]

Jackal - if he's a wolf then he uses his kill to buy trust for himself at the cost of one of his team-mates. Then, to further hammer hom the point, he is "cleared" by Zinto making him a bigger target to Atlantic City and costing his team $1100. Again it's possible but just seems highly unlikely. He's been straightforward about his bids and bets and they seem to match up. Announced that he got the kill tonight. The only way he can be a wolf is if there are two wolves. As far as I'm concerned Jackal is as close to my trust as you can get.

[Narcizo]

Mau - unless wolves have been able to make multiple bids on multiple Days then mau looks very unlikley to be a wolf, due to the bidding on day three and day five. Day three he could conceivably have got a bid in if the two wolf teams had achieved unintended synchronicity in their bids. Day Five can only be explained by two bids being made or a villager not mentioning that they had got the Casino Manager (ping Darth). Mau also scanned Zinto (a presumed colleague) when he could have scanned someone else. Could have been to get trust but combined with his bidding record I don't think it's likely.

[The Jackal]

Do we want to trust a no lynch? 5:1 if I don't put in a kill, we'd need a no lynch for endgame. Otherwise I take say path out and there's just straight up two lynches left if we think the wolf can win the NK tmw night.

[Narcizo]

Path - Has been forthcoming about his bids and bets. There has to be a doubt about what Path claims has been happening with his account but we either have to decide if it sounds believable or a lie. I'm absolutely terrible at spotting lies so I can't be sure about that. Like mau gave up a Las Vegas gangster although its not certain that the Las Vegas mob actually knew he was a team member. Personally I think they made Danny an "offer he couldn't refuse" and knew full well that he was on their side, just weren't allowed to communicate with him.

Path used $3,412 on the hitman which, lets be honest, is a hell of a lot. He claims he got the money from the Casino Manager. No other village has confirmed using the manager so we don't actually know if that's reasonable. Seems an easy way for a villager to make a bunch of cash - I had presumed it would give the player an extra vote or somesuch. We only have Path's Word about him using all his - he might be massaging the figures to add up, and maybe made a mistake the first time he reported it and went back to correct it after. Then again he experienced a limited cash winning on his britrock bet - didn't someone else report that? Meh. Got to restart this computer. More soon.