Werewolf XXXVI: Resident Evil (S.T.A.R.S. Wins! Post #1424)

[hoopsguy]

Yep, I think I've put that scenario out in full on the board. But have not seen much comment on it by others as of this time.

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

MrW, it was 4-4 with Cronin vs Alan at the time.

If you take the intuitive leap here on Path, that he and Alan are on the same team, then they are zombies. They would not be Umbrella and bring forward another Umbrella candidate in Lathum.

Wow hoops, that's quite a leap. Especially when there were multiple people other than me saying that they weren't happy with the alternatives at the time, hence the BrianD votes. And the fact that you followed me onto Lathum the very next post. Does that mean you're a zombie also?

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Path, I'm not Zombie or Umbrella.

Hoops, I wasn't referencing you in that post. I was talking about Mr W's read on Alan.

[hoopsguy]

We can come at this from another direction - why were you looking for an alternate candidate besides Alan and Cronin?

My thoughts on Day 2 regarding Tyrith having viewed Cronin are pretty well documented - I'll pull them up again if anyone is disputing this statement. So that is why I was looking for something else - because one of the two people in the showdown I thought to be good (changed on this mid-way through Day 3, obviously a bad idea) and the other I didn't know about. In that scenario, I was looking for a 3rd candidate. How about you?

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

LSG, I'm trying to play out a scenario in my mind here on Path. I would prefer to do it in public as we have quite a bit of time before night actions go in. He should have an opportunity to respond, the sniper should have an opportunity to evaluate this when making a decision.

Wow again. I'm fine with whoever wants to look at my voting record, it's out in the open and I think I've been pretty specific about why I voted as I did each day.

I don't think I appreciate you calling the snipers attention my way though. I don't see what I've done to warrant that.

[hoopsguy]

Path, I'm just trying to understand why people wanted someone besides Cronin or Alan in the runoff. If they are both STARS, then only the Chief should have reason to avoid this showdown. Umbrella and Zombies are happy to fire votes on guys not in their faction. Other STARS have no info to work with at this point.

But Tyrith did have a role that gave him info (strongly believe on Cronin) - his posts that day were crystal clear. And eventually I saw that on Day 2, so I had reason to look for an alternate candidate.

Are you going to argue that you felt both were bad options? That you saw what Tyrith was posting? What was the reason you were looking for an alternate?

[hoopsguy]

As far as the Sniper goes, he gets to evaluate my arguments as well. If he believes I'm Zombie he should blow me away.

[hoopsguy]

You can not have been the Police Chief, based on your 3rd vote for Cronin yesterday. People can argue about the Chief hiding a vote on Day 1, but not yesterday.

[hoopsguy]

Chubby, are you willing to comment on the order that night actions are processed?

[ntndeacon]

hoops, we can do more than argue the chief hiding a vote on day one. we now know that both of our 2 main candidates for lynching were Stars. It is a pretty good bet that the chief hid thier vote on day one.

[hoopsguy]

If Internal Affairs has scanned either Alan or me up to this point, I would recommend taking a look at the other one tonight. If he is telling the truth we need to have that information so we don't destroy our chances of winning tomorrow by going after a bad lynch. I know what faction I'll come up with, but I don't know about Alan.

Then publish that information tomorrow so we can start working on a legitimate circle of trust for the rest of the way. Because right now is a mess, and I'm stunned by how bad it is for Night 3 in a game with several information roles.

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Path, I'm just trying to understand why people wanted someone besides Cronin or Alan in the runoff. If they are both STARS, then only the Chief should have reason to avoid this showdown. Umbrella and Zombies are happy to fire votes on guys not in their faction. Other STARS have no info to work with at this point.

But Tyrith did have a role that gave him info (strongly believe on Cronin) - his posts that day were crystal clear. And eventually I saw that on Day 2, so I had reason to look for an alternate candidate.

Are you going to argue that you felt both were bad options? That you saw what Tyrith was posting? What was the reason you were looking for an alternate?

Well, I can't speak for people as a whole, but I wanted someone besides Alan and Cronin in the runoff day 2 because I was getting the vibe at that time that they were likely both good.

Remember, my day 1 vote for Cronin wasn't out of confidence he was bad, but to tie up the vote between he and Bullet with quite awhile to go to try and get some leads on how others voted after that. You know that I often like to cause a tie early in the day to try and flush out some information.

For day 2, I just really had Alan pegged as a villager -- he was taking the lead in questioning and trying to put a hypothesis together, and it was enough to make me think that I would rather have him and his ideas around than not. Then you had Cronin getting all pissed (which even though it has been used as a ploy, I think more often indicates a frustrated villager), which in combination with some of the conversation around there (Tyrith for example) made me not thrilled with voting his way either.

So I thought we had a stars/stars candidate, and started looking for a third one. I didn't see the reasoning on BrianD, but thought there were some valid concerns about Lathum and decided to try and start there and see if anyone would follow. And am glad I did.

[hoopsguy]

NTN, I agree that he hid the vote on Day 1. I do not agree that the Chief hid his vote on Days 2 or 3.

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

You can not have been the Police Chief, based on your 3rd vote for Cronin yesterday. People can argue about the Chief hiding a vote on Day 1, but not yesterday.

I've never claimed to be the Chief. I am not the Chief.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

NTN, I agree that he hid the vote on Day 1. I do not agree that the Chief hid his vote on Days 2 or 3.

agreed

[hoopsguy]

Right, I'm just trying to figure out how someone on STARS could "know" that Alan/Cronin would be a bad showdown. If you have two guys that you are unsure of, why not see how it shakes out? If you have one STARS and one other faction, well the people in other faction will want to move it.

Tyrith knew, I picked up on it eventually.
Police Chief knew.
Internal Affairs may have picked one of those two to view, but if they had viewed Cronin in first two days they didn't make their presence felt yesterday.

[hoopsguy]

The person who defended Cronin hardest yesterday was me, for the first few hours. No one came out defending him after I flip-flopped (I waited for everyone to check in before doing so), although several other people put votes out for alternate candidates.

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Right, I'm just trying to figure out how someone on STARS could "know" that Alan/Cronin would be a bad showdown. If you have two guys that you are unsure of, why not see how it shakes out? If you have one STARS and one other faction, well the people in other faction will want to move it.

Tyrith knew, I picked up on it eventually.
Police Chief knew.
Internal Affairs may have picked one of those two to view, but if they had viewed Cronin in first two days they didn't make their presence felt yesterday.

There can be so much value in having discussion drivers around that sometimes you feel like you need to have a higher level of distrust than normal before lynching.

Cronin and Alan are discussion drivers. As are you. You guys get more benefit of the doubt before getting a vote. Of course the tradeoff is that you're involved in the vote more often.....

Besides, we'd lost nothing but stars to that point. If you feel like there's a good chance you've got two more in a runoff, you look for a bad guy. Sometimes it's just as simple as that.

[hoopsguy]

Path, if you think my theory is full of crap come back with an alternate one. We need to start finding Zombies before we get run out of the game.

I think my plan to start working on the CoT is sound - that doesn't involve you at all. Any comments on it, or better ways to do this?

[ntndeacon]

I agree that it isn't a question of knowing. If you suspect it is 2 Stars you would probably move elsewhere.

[hoopsguy]

We all play our gut in this game - it is a game of incomplete information. But if you have two unknowns in a run-off, why not see how it plays out? You are going to get information from it, and how does introducing a 3rd unknown help going forward?

Unless you feel like you have a "known" to introduce. Of course, there are only a couple of roles on STARS that could have a "known" ...


I would argue that it is different if you have a "known good" versus an unknown. That is where Tyrith found himself on Day 2.

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Path, if you think my theory is full of crap come back with an alternate one. We need to start finding Zombies before we get run out of the game.

I think my plan to start working on the CoT is sound - that doesn't involve you at all. Any comments on it, or better ways to do this?

Hoops, if I had an theory to put out there I would. I'm as lost as anyone after this last lynch. And I'm not going to put something out there just to put it out there.

I think the idea for IAD to scan you or Alan is a good one. I feel positive that at least one of you has been scanned already (I'd be shocked if not). It's kind of sad that we've lost so many members that we're going to need the seer day 4 but we absolutely need to start clearing some folks before we move on -- and we cannot afford any more stars going down.

The main problem I see with it is this: Say that IAD comes out and clears you and Alan. Now there are three known stars and just one bodyguard. The bodyguard can protect only one of you per night and has to jump around, which will cause a nasty little guessing game between them and the bad guys.

Of course, Umbrella would also probably be glad to know that information also.

[hoopsguy]

Agreed on the guessing game, but if Alan comes up a Zombie then we start to get some real info. If he comes up Umbrella it is information, but not as interesting. I'm going to be pretty surprised if he comes up STARS.

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

We all play our gut in this game - it is a game of incomplete information. But if you have two unknowns in a run-off, why not see how it plays out? You are going to get information from it, and how does introducing a 3rd unknown help going forward?

If the 3rd unknown ends up bad it helps quite a bit, wouldn't you say?

Seriously though, we might be running up against a style difference here. If I am good, and have two people that my gut is telling me is good in a runoff, and we've lost just good guys to date, and I have a 3rd option I'm willing to listen to my gut in that circumstance.

[ntndeacon]

I think it is clearer now that Alan is not who he says he is. we are running out of vanilla role for him to hide behind.

[hoopsguy]

And if he has already come up STARS then I think the person pretty much has to scan me.

That said, I'll take my chances on surviving Day 4 if he thinks that there is another person worth scanning. I know I'm STARS and I'll try to persuade others that I am even without the scan. But whether I'm in it or not, we need to start to see a meaningful circle of trust emerge. Police Chief cannot reveal, so it is basically on Internal Affairs to do it.

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Agreed on the guessing game, but if Alan comes up a Zombie then we start to get some real info. If he comes up Umbrella it is information, but not as interesting. I'm going to be pretty surprised if he comes up STARS.

It certainly seems unlikely for him to be stars at this point but I don't rule it out. It's my feeling that if IAD gets anyone as zombie they should be shouting it from the rooftops!

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

And if he has already come up STARS then I think the person pretty much has to scan me.

That said, I'll take my chances on surviving Day 4 if he thinks that there is another person worth scanning. I know I'm STARS and I'll try to persuade others that I am even without the scan. But whether I'm in it or not, we need to start to see a meaningful circle of trust emerge. Police Chief cannot reveal, so it is basically on Internal Affairs to do it.

As said, I do agree that we need a circle of trust. But it's a fine line between IAD putting a list of stars out there since that is exactly what both Umbrella and the zombies are looking for. I think that IAD has to be careful about how much information they put out there. Finding out about you and Alan would be enough for now, don't you think?

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by path12

It certainly seems unlikely for him to be stars at this point but I don't rule it out. It's my feeling that if IAD gets anyone as zombie they should be shouting it from the rooftops!

I am starting to agree with this at least tossing hints out there about them. the good thing (kinda) is soon the Umbrella are going to HAVE to start hunting Zombies too. I don't know when they start. they have a thin line to walk. killing stars also helps the Zombies numbers game, but killing Zombies helps the Stars. I would think that in thier PMing they talk about who was scanned by thier seer too.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

I think it is clearer now that Alan is not who he says he is. we are running out of vanilla role for him to hide behind.

Police Chief
Internal Affairs
SWAT Team
Survalliance
Sniper

5 dead stars, four vanilla
Probably have 1-2 vanilla left, agreed that there isn't much room for Alan to squeeze in. Although "roles may or may not be in the game".

[path12]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

I am starting to agree with this at least tossing hints out there about them. the good thing (kinda) is soon the Umbrella are going to HAVE to start hunting Zombies too. I don't know when they start. they have a thin line to walk. killing stars also helps the Zombies numbers game, but killing Zombies helps the Stars. I would think that in thier PMing they talk about who was scanned by thier seer too.

I didn't think about that. Umbrella has full knowledge of all their scans as the game goes along. That's a big benefit.

[ntndeacon]

I tend to think those roles are in the game though. I could be wrong of course. But as a working hypothesis, it is a good place to start.

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Police Chief
Internal Affairs
SWAT Team
Survalliance
Sniper

5 dead stars, four vanilla
Probably have 1-2 vanilla left, agreed that there isn't much room for Alan to squeeze in. Although "roles may or may not be in the game".

I would think as SWAT or Sniper you would claim vanilla, so I guess there's a possibility that he could fall in one of those roles.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by path12

I would think as SWAT or Sniper you would claim vanilla, so I guess there's a possibility that he could fall in one of those roles.

No, I'm just vanilla, I don't have any role. Thats why I really am not that important other than 1 more number closer to or from losing the game. The only thing I have to bring to this game is my analysis which is clearly flawed.

So right now I'm just an extra day for the Stars is all. Not much more benefit.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by path12

I would think as SWAT or Sniper you would claim vanilla, so I guess there's a possibility that he could fall in one of those roles.

I guess, but I would think that those positions would not make a big deal one way or the other about thier possible roles and just claim to be stars. But this is a valid point. I thought, like hoops, that Alan at least could be IA. This is why he did not get my vote yesterday.

[hoopsguy]

Winning Conditions:
STARS: You win when all Zombies are dead, ummm, REALLY dead.

Zombies: You win whem your numbers equal the numbers of S.T.A.R.S. and Umbrella put together.

Umbrella: You win when all S.T.A.R.S. members have been "taken care of"


Umbrella has tough victory conditions, as the Zombies will win before all the STARS are "taken care of". So they have to join us in hunting Zombies if they want to win. With that in mind, I'm fine with publishing information for them. If we get around to eliminating Zombies they will have collected information on just about everyone left already thanks to their seer.

[path12]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

I thought, like hoops, that Alan at least could be IA. This is why he did not get my vote yesterday.

I think most of us did.

[Alan T]

And just a note, hoops was saying that whoever was IA should come out and save me perhaps to save us a day from lynching more Stars if Im good.

I'm guessing that I already have been scanned, and if not I probably will. But I really am not worth blowing your role to save. You should come out and say if Im zombie or umbrella obviously, but whoever it is you know what my allegiance is, so please believe me when I say I'm nothing important.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Alan T

And just a note, hoops was saying that whoever was IA should come out and save me perhaps to save us a day from lynching more Stars if Im good.

I'm guessing that I already have been scanned, and if not I probably will. But I really am not worth blowing your role to save. You should come out and say if Im zombie or umbrella obviously, but whoever it is you know what my allegiance is, so please believe me when I say I'm nothing important.

I am not sure Iwant IA to tell us if you are Umbrella. I want him to continue searching until they find a Zombie at the very least.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, in the event you has just been a major dumbass instead of a schemer I would like to have you back in the group trying to win the game for STARS. And that cannot happen without IA publicly clearing you.

No matter what side you are on this game I'm as mad at you as is reasonable to be over a online game. But that doesn't mean I'm not going to try and win the game. And I think publicly revealing you as STARS (slim possibility, but ...) is worth the trade for us because we HAVE to get a good lynch tomorrow. If you are not a good lynch, we need to know that.

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Winning Conditions:
STARS: You win when all Zombies are dead, ummm, REALLY dead.

Zombies: You win whem your numbers equal the numbers of S.T.A.R.S. and Umbrella put together.

Umbrella: You win when all S.T.A.R.S. members have been "taken care of"


Umbrella has tough victory conditions, as the Zombies will win before all the STARS are "taken care of". So they have to join us in hunting Zombies if they want to win. With that in mind, I'm fine with publishing information for them. If we get around to eliminating Zombies they will have collected information on just about everyone left already thanks to their seer.

It depends on how many Umbrella there are, doesn't it? If the assumption is three zombies, and say there's four or five Umbrella out there, then the zombies need to kill both -- so it might actually benefit the zombies to know who are stars so they can go the other direction and make sure and get a couple Umbrella.

I'm not sure that makes sense reading it back.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Alan, in the event you has just been a major dumbass instead of a schemer I would like to have you back in the group trying to win the game for STARS. And that cannot happen without IA publicly clearing you.

No matter what side you are on this game I'm as mad at you as is reasonable to be over a online game. But that doesn't mean I'm not going to try and win the game. And I think publicly revealing you as STARS (slim possibility, but ...) is worth the trade for us because we HAVE to get a good lynch tomorrow. If you are not a good lynch, we need to know that.

I think keeping the IA around to find out if you or someone else is a zombie is a better value then keeping me as a roleless Stars member who made a bad read on the game around.

[hoopsguy]

Anyways, it is not worth pursuing the "Path" arguments if IA is going to publish information on Alan - if he finds Alan as a zombie then I'll probably come back in this direction. If Alan comes up as Umbrella or STARS then there wasn't much incentive in bringing up a new candidate.

[ntndeacon]

the good news, if there is any for us, is twofold.
1. we haven't lost too many important roles as of yet (just the one)
2. No vaccinated folks have been killed yet. That has to be in the Zombies minds too. It would be wonderful if were to eliminate both of thier means of enlarging thier numbers

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Anyways, it is not worth pursuing the "Path" arguments if IA is going to publish information on Alan - if he finds Alan as a zombie then I'll probably come back in this direction. If Alan comes up as Umbrella or STARS then there wasn't much incentive in bringing up a new candidate.

I'll compromise with you. If I turn up Umbrella or Zombie then I'm fine with IA releasing my information. If I turn up stars, then don't turn up my information.

Then everyone can assume that silence on the issue = stars and the IA is protected.

Another part of me is thinking that by making the IA go after me it wastes a night looking for zombies. The trick here is I bet the IA already has scanned me and its not going to waste a night at all. If the IA hasn't scanned me then it obviously makes the most sense to scan me tonight.

But I am hoping I have already been scanned, and the IA won't come out to reveal me as stars, and can continue to look for a zombie.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, the value is in making a good lynch decision tomorrow.

[hoopsguy]

I also agree with what you said about the IA already looking at you - hoping that is the case.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Alan, the value is in making a good lynch decision tomorrow.

I don't see how my plan doesn't do that?

You are pushing for the IA to reveal on me regardless of my role, even if I am stars.

I am saying reveal if I am umbrella or Zombie. Don't say anything if I am Stars.

If by the time everyone shows up and no one has come out to say I am umbrella or zombies, its pretty safe that I am the dumbass that you all have called me, but a good dumbass and you all can go on your way to someone else if you want.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, in the event it goes down that way then I guess it depends on the quality of the other information they possess. If they had information on Cronin and one other STARS then I think it is pretty borderline. But we would have a 3 person CoT for the day. If they have info on you and two more STARS then we have a four person CoT.

Your scenario involves having you cleared and we are guessing about the other people in the game. Obviously the person with this role can assess the value of their information, but I would advocate having as big a CoT as we can possibly have tomorrow and then let the zombies worry about tearing it down the rest of the game.

[st.cronin]

As I'm following along from the grave, I will be rooting hard for whatever team AlanT is on to lose. Even if that is STARS.

That is all.