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Old 10-29-2009, 10:54 AM   #1301
Lathum
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Join Date: Dec 2001
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raiders Army View Post
Look at the time period here. With Telle on the chopping block, would a wolf try to get votes for another wolf?

(372) Raiders Army unvotes Telle, votes ntndeacon (AS 6, PB 4, Telle 3, Danny 1, RA 1, KWhit 1, ntn 1)
(377) ntndeacon unvotes KWhit, votes Telle (AS 6, PB 4, Telle 4, Danny 1, RA 1, ntn 1)
(382) Raiders Army unvotes ntndeacon, votes Telle (AS 6, Telle 5, PB 4, Danny 1, RA 1)

4 minutes before deadline you changed to NTN, putting the first vote on him/ 2 minutes later you go back to Telle.

Thats not a very compelling argument.
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Old 10-29-2009, 10:59 AM   #1302
Lathum
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Lerriuqs

Day 1- Casts a vote on Abe making it 6-6 at the time. Was previously on RA.
Day 2- Votes Abe again, putting Abe up 3-0
Day 3- Votes NTN

Overall I find it very unlikely he is a wolf based on those votes.

JAG

Day 1- Early vote on PB, bringing a 6th candidate into the mix on day 1.
Day 2- Casts a late vote on Abe, potentially sealing his fate. Puts abe up by 2 votes on NTN.
Day 3- Casts a vote on CW, tying him up with NTN, after I reveal as Duke he moves to Hoops.

Overall if NTN is good he looks good, if NTN is a wolf he looks pretty bad.

The Jackal

Day 1- Cast a vote on Abe making it a 3-3 tie at the time with PB
Day 2- Votes Abe, putting him up 6-4 over NTN
Day 3- Votes Jag, pulling him into a race with CW and NTN. Eventually moves onto Hoops.

If NTN is a villager he looks good. If NTN is a wolf he looks not as good. The timing of his votes on Abe elevate him a bit though. Even if on Day 2 NTN is a wolf, I would think getting NTN lynched over Abe would be a priority.



Chief Rum
Day 1- Votes GE, then switches and moves onto Abe, putting Abe up 4-3 over PB and RA.
Fay 2- Votes NTN, making it 3-2 with Abe in the lead. Could be trying to get NTN lynched over Abe, but that day 1 vote makes me think otherwise.
Day 3- Late vote on NTN putting him up 5-3 over CW
Overall I lean towards him being good.

Coffee Warlord
Day 1- attempts to unvote Abe but misses deadline. Had previously switched from KWhit to Abe, tying Abe and PB up.
Day 2- Votes NTN, putting him one up on Abe.
Day 3- Votes NTN, putting him 3-2 with Hoops

Overall looks decent unless he is a wolf trying to get NTN lynched instead of Abe day 2, but his day 1 and 3 votes look good.

Raiders Army
Day 1- Votes PB putting him up by 2 over Abe, unvotes PB after reveal and then waits. Votes Abe once Abe has a 2 vote lead over PB, things look bad for Abe and may want to buy trust. Then votes Telle in the end.
Day 2- Early vote on NTN after Abe is up 3-0, again, looks like a wolf trying to save Abe.
Day 3- Votes Hoops early, then switchs to NTN, again, could be a gain trust vote.



OK, updated with remaining unknowns.

Obviously Jag is going down today and I don't think yesterdays analysis will help much given the fact NTN was most likely going down.
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Old 10-29-2009, 11:08 AM   #1303
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
(372) Raiders Army unvotes Telle, votes ntndeacon (AS 6, PB 4, Telle 3, Danny 1, RA 1, KWhit 1, ntn 1)
(377) ntndeacon unvotes KWhit, votes Telle (AS 6, PB 4, Telle 4, Danny 1, RA 1, ntn 1)
(382) Raiders Army unvotes ntndeacon, votes Telle (AS 6, Telle 5, PB 4, Danny 1, RA 1)

4 minutes before deadline you changed to NTN, putting the first vote on him/ 2 minutes later you go back to Telle.

Thats not a very compelling argument.

You're missing the piece that there were enough people on to switch at the time.
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Old 10-29-2009, 11:09 AM   #1304
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Also, you think I'm a wolf because I could've done wolfish things to possibly gain trust? I think you're thinking too much.
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Old 10-29-2009, 11:11 AM   #1305
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I bet it's just eating at Lathum to not say that I am a wolf...
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Old 10-29-2009, 11:18 AM   #1306
Lathum
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raiders Army View Post
You're missing the piece that there were enough people on to switch at the time.

I'm sorry man, but that is pretty weak.

Did you really think you could introduce a candidate with 4 minutes left and swing enough people?

the only reason there was a Telle swing was because of PB's reveal, and there was also 2 wolves helping it along. Ordinarily it would be crazy to have 3 wolves involved in a swing like that, but once abe gets scanned and comes back good it makes you guys look better.

Had the seer cleared Abe he would be alive now and no one would be looking at you guys yet.


And why did you you go to Telle and not Abe, at one point you had a vote that made it 8-5 Abe over PB, yet when you have a chance to go back to Abe you go to Telle, even though you claimed you didn't like a Telle vote. Was it because when you made it 8-5 it seemed Abe was gone and you wanted to buy trust?

You also made some posts day 2 about how we shouldn't vote for Abe, and the PB had somehow cleared him.

There is just a lot that doesn't add up.
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Old 10-29-2009, 11:19 AM   #1307
Lathum
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raiders Army View Post
Also, you think I'm a wolf because I could've done wolfish things to possibly gain trust? I think you're thinking too much.

I don't understand what you mean by this.
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Old 10-29-2009, 11:20 AM   #1308
Lathum
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EagleFan View Post
I bet it's just eating at Lathum to not say that I am a wolf...

I asked if I could duke you, but alas, no luck.

It also seems I am going to take my ability to the grave unless they convert MartinD to buy an extra day.
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Old 10-29-2009, 11:59 AM   #1309
JAG
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Hey guys, sorry I haven't been around. Will explain at the end.

I don't have anything to say in my defense as I see it's pointless and I don't have time to do analysis. Despite my 'poor' voting record (an odd thing to say about voting for wolves 2 out of 4 days, although technically only 1 of 3 days was anything special), I do hope when I turn up villager tomorrow that you remember this post, but frankly I have no faith people will so I won't expend a lot of effort.

I'm honestly not sure who the other wolves are. Obviously some of them have been sneaky with their votes on some days. I still don't know that I see RA with a known wolf (ntn) putting a second vote on him to tie him with Abe and PB on D1. That plus RA introducing ntn as a candidate D2 (he wouldn't pick a villager?) plus his D3 vote for ntn...it's just too much for me. I wanted to look at Jackal for his D3 vote, but his other votes look pretty good. I wanted to look at CW for his D1 last minute switch, but his earlier D1 and D3 votes are good. Anyway, everyone seems to have some vote they can point to in their defense and I don't have time to puzzle out the permutations.

That being the case, I am going to vote for a known quantity that I will probably have to vote for as a wolf at some future point (assuming, wrongly I know, that Lathum makes a surprising play and dukes it to someone else).

VOTE MARTIND

Reason I haven't been on today is my second daughter was born at 1:05am this morning. Mother and daughter are doing fine. Obviously I have no clue what my schedule is until sometime later tomorrow, so it's probably just as well I get lynched here.
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Old 10-29-2009, 12:02 PM   #1310
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Reason I haven't been on today is my second daughter was born at 1:05am this morning. Mother and daughter are doing fine. Obviously I have no clue what my schedule is until sometime later tomorrow, so it's probably just as well I get lynched here.

CONGRATULATIONS, JAG!!!!!
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Old 10-29-2009, 12:27 PM   #1311
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Whooo Jag! Congrats!
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Old 10-29-2009, 12:36 PM   #1312
Lathum
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wow, grats Jag!
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Old 10-29-2009, 12:38 PM   #1313
Lathum
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dola- you voting Martin makes you even more likely to be a wolf.

You are actually voting for a known villager
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Old 10-29-2009, 12:56 PM   #1314
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Congrats JAG!!!!!

Sorry that we have to vote your furry butt off today, no hard feelings I hope.

I agree 100% with Lathum's last post. (scary ) Why vote Martin when he is most likes the cultist? That only helps the wolves.
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Old 10-29-2009, 01:00 PM   #1315
MartinD
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There really isn't a lot of point in me saying anything or voting - it's pretty obvious who I am, and no-one is going to trust anything I say.

In the likely event that things start happening fairly quickly after tonight's deadline (when I won't be around), I don't want to hold things up - have sent a PM to Schmidty giving my agreement to any nightfall votes after tonight's deadline.
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Old 10-29-2009, 01:14 PM   #1316
Lathum
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I have a feeling we are going to have a quiet rest of the day
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Old 10-29-2009, 01:19 PM   #1317
Lathum
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I also can't wait to hear GE's reasoning for why we go MartinD yesterday, other than he knew Martin was lying.
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Old 10-29-2009, 01:23 PM   #1318
lerriuqs
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I also can't wait to hear GE's reasoning for why we go MartinD yesterday, other than he knew Martin was lying.

GE is gone.
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Old 10-29-2009, 01:24 PM   #1319
lerriuqs
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Unless you mean eventually...Then never mind...
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Old 10-29-2009, 01:28 PM   #1320
Lathum
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i meant eventually
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Old 10-29-2009, 01:31 PM   #1321
Raiders Army
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
You also made some posts day 2 about how we shouldn't vote for Abe, and the PB had somehow cleared him.

Pardon me since I haven't played a game in a (long) while and I got things wrong. Once corrected that day (early on), I didn't say anything about PB clearing him.

From what I can tell you have gotten things wrong in this game as well and if it weren't for the fact that you're the duke, I think we'd all be looking at you with your voting record.
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Old 10-29-2009, 01:31 PM   #1322
Lathum
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I am likely dead tonight, I think the logical path is Jag than RA. Even if there is no night kill I still go RA, we can always go back to Martin at some point.
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Old 10-29-2009, 01:31 PM   #1323
Raiders Army
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JAG View Post
Reason I haven't been on today is my second daughter was born at 1:05am this morning. Mother and daughter are doing fine. Obviously I have no clue what my schedule is until sometime later tomorrow, so it's probably just as well I get lynched here.

Congratulations
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Old 10-29-2009, 01:33 PM   #1324
Lathum
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Originally Posted by Raiders Army View Post

From what I can tell you have gotten things wrong in this game as well and if it weren't for the fact that you're the duke, I think we'd all be looking at you with your voting record.

I certainly have, but I also was all over Abe Day 2 and no way as a wolf and Abe being the cunning would I have been.
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Old 10-29-2009, 01:34 PM   #1325
Raiders Army
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
I don't understand what you mean by this.

You're way overthinking things and looking for wolf moves that aren't there. Of course I can say that because I know I'm an ordinary villager, but I'm not really sure how to defend motivations that are untrue.
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Old 10-29-2009, 01:36 PM   #1326
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
I certainly have, but I also was all over Abe Day 2 and no way as a wolf and Abe being the cunning would I have been.

So? I was all over ntn most days. My point is that the argument that you're making for me being a wolf could be applied to you as well (your duke role notwithstanding).
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Old 10-29-2009, 01:38 PM   #1327
Lathum
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So? I was all over ntn most days. My point is that the argument that you're making for me being a wolf could be applied to you as well (your duke role notwithstanding).

of course it could be, but we all know I am not a wolf.

Out of the remaining unknows, other than Jag you look the worse IMO.

I certainly could be wrong, but give me someone else to look at.
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Old 10-29-2009, 02:26 PM   #1328
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At this point, I'm not sure. I would've said Chief Rum, but looking at how he voted I don't see how that could be the case. Nobody really jumps out at me.
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Old 10-29-2009, 04:04 PM   #1329
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Old 10-29-2009, 04:35 PM   #1330
Raiders Army
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getting vote in before I go home tonight:

VOTE JAG
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Old 10-29-2009, 04:54 PM   #1331
lerriuqs
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As of 1330

Jag 7 - Lathum (1282), lerriuqs (1285), Kwhit (1289), Coffee Warlord (1292), EF (1294), Jackal (1295), Raiders Army (1330)
Raiders Army 1 - CR (1288),
Martin D 1 - Jag (1309)

Unless I missed it - yet to vote - MartinD
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Old 10-29-2009, 05:11 PM   #1332
lerriuqs
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
I am likely dead tonight, I think the logical path is Jag than RA. Even if there is no night kill I still go RA, we can always go back to Martin at some point.

I think it depends. If we miss today and Jag is not a wolf, tomorrow would be the last day if we missed and don't lynch Martin. If we lynch Martin, we get more at least one day to do analysis and sniff out wolves.

I based this on them not taking Martin when they don't need to. They can keep killing off villagers and win after tomorrow regardless of whether they turn Martin if we can't find a wolf.
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Old 10-29-2009, 05:12 PM   #1333
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Basically we're about to be down to 1 wolf after the lynch. I know JAG had a big event happen but he seems to not even trying to put up a fight and made a throw-away vote on Martin.

We will probably be back up to 2 after tonight with the conversion, but then back to one after lynching Martin.

My guess is that it comes down to RA vs. CR but I will look things over a bit more tonight to see.
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Old 10-29-2009, 05:18 PM   #1334
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Looks like it boils down to: if we are wrong twice we lose.
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Old 10-29-2009, 05:23 PM   #1335
lerriuqs
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Looks like it boils down to: if we are wrong twice we lose.

Yup.
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Old 10-29-2009, 06:20 PM   #1336
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My guess is that it comes down to RA vs. CR but I will look things over a bit more tonight to see.

Okay, I asked you to back yourself up on your suspicion of me before and you ignored me. If you're going to continue down this road, could you at least respond so I can see why you think I am wolfish?
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Old 10-29-2009, 06:32 PM   #1337
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CONGRATS JAG!!

You're still a wolf, but good news like that extends beyond WW.
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Old 10-29-2009, 06:35 PM   #1338
Chief Rum
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Heh...I feel like we're the Inglorious B****** in the movie, trying to decide if we need to take out a German soldier who is celebrating the birth of his first child, just because he is on the wrong place at the wrong time.

Congrats, JAG. Too bad you have wandered into enemy territory.
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Old 10-29-2009, 06:37 PM   #1339
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JAG, congrats to you and the rest of your family. Very exciting news.
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Old 10-29-2009, 06:38 PM   #1340
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I just want to get something off of my chest. I'm not going to direct this specifically at someone, but if you don't have any interest in playing once the game starts, instead of just drifting through and not caring if you live or die, please try to find a replacement. For example, I am pretty darned sure that Darth would have been happy to take someone's spot.

That is all.
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Old 10-29-2009, 06:52 PM   #1341
Lathum
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I think many of us, myself included have been guilty of doing that. I think it is way more evident when you are the GM that it is happening.
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Old 10-29-2009, 07:21 PM   #1342
Schmidty
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I think many of us, myself included have been guilty of doing that. I think it is way more evident when you are the GM that it is happening.

True. I guess it's just that when someone is so bored that they even say that they aren't interested that I get a little annoyed.

Anyway, no big deal I guess.
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Old 10-29-2009, 07:27 PM   #1343
Abe Sargent
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Reason I haven't been on today is my second daughter was born at 1:05am this morning. Mother and daughter are doing fine. Obviously I have no clue what my schedule is until sometime later tomorrow, so it's probably just as well I get lynched here.

YAYAYAYAYAYAYYAYAYAYAYAYAYAYAYAYAYAYAYAYAYAYAY
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Old 10-29-2009, 07:31 PM   #1344
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Congrats, JAG!!!!!
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Old 10-29-2009, 07:54 PM   #1345
Chief Rum
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Wow, talk about a quiet deadline.
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Old 10-29-2009, 08:00 PM   #1346
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Deadline
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Old 10-29-2009, 08:00 PM   #1347
PurdueBrad
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Originally Posted by Schmidty View Post
I just want to get something off of my chest. I'm not going to direct this specifically at someone, but if you don't have any interest in playing once the game starts, instead of just drifting through and not caring if you live or die, please try to find a replacement. For example, I am pretty darned sure that Darth would have been happy to take someone's spot.

That is all.

You could always invite Shaggy back.
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Old 10-29-2009, 08:07 PM   #1348
Lathum
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jeez, you would think the GM would have the write up done considering how the day has gone.

He must be bored and not into the game
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Old 10-29-2009, 08:10 PM   #1349
Schmidty
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Now that Freddy is gone, you all realize that you are in dire straights, and can't make anymore mistakes. Things are very much solemn and ordered during this discussion. There isn't much dissent when you choose The Ghost.

Before the police even have a chance to approach The Ghost, the person claiming to be Daphne speaks up - "I really don't think this is a good idea. I would be ever so appreciative if you would change your vote to Dyno-Mutt. Thanks!!"

For some reason, this makes total sense, so Mr. Price informs the police that they should arrest Dyno-Mutt. They approach him, and cuff him. Shaking his head, Dyno-Mutt simply says, "Jimminy Christmas".

The Mutt's mask is yanked off, and Raiders Army stars back at you all. It's obvious that he is a yet another Party-goer.

Things are not looking good.....
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Old 10-29-2009, 08:12 PM   #1350
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He took a chance, just didn't pay off unfortunately. Now we have one time left that we can miss.
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