WW LXVI: Money Money Money (Game Over!)

[Chief Rum]

All right, I have to go to bed. Hopefully you guys can sort all this out. See you tomorrow (if I am still alive).

[Alan T]

Based on what Claphasma gave us for his accounting, this is what I end up with:

Day 1: 15k on hand, 15k in 3 day cd (2 days left), 0 in bank
Day 2: 30k on hand, 15k in 3 day cd (1 day left), 0 in bank
Day 3: 45k on hand + 15k in 3 day cd matures = 19965 total = 64965 onhand, 0 in bank, 0 in CD

Takes 45k into 1 day cd, leaves 19965 on hand

Day 4:
CD matures = 47250+ 19965 on hand + 15k for vote = 82215 on hand, 0 in bank, 0 in cd

Put 75k into a 1 day CD = 7215 left on hand, 0 in bank..



Based off of the numbers Barkeep gave earlier in the game for how much interest each CD pays off, the numbers on the CDs add up. The two discrepencies that I find are:

1) 9k was stolen, but this says you would only have 7215 available to be stolen.
2) Your CD that you opened last night shouldn't be available to you today.. You shouldn't have any money on hand currently.

[hoopsguy]

Clap, how much did you bid for the seer on the night you lost it?

[Alan T]

Slow morning so far!

[hoopsguy]

It is also inconvenient that all money is tied up in a CD, which means that he can not pass the money out to other players publicly as a show of good faith.

It doesn't mean that it isn't true, but it is definitely inconvenient for him and those of us trying to give him the benefit of the doubt.

[Tyrith]

The little move to try to get us to distrust hoops smells like a desperate attempt to deflect attention. He smells really bad. This vote is pretty obvious.

I will not be around much today because I have a test at 7, although I'll probably check it at some point this afternoon and be back half an hour to an hour before the lynch.

VOTE CLAPHASMA

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Based on what Claphasma gave us for his accounting, this is what I end up with:

Day 1: 15k on hand, 15k in 3 day cd (2 days left), 0 in bank
Day 2: 30k on hand, 15k in 3 day cd (1 day left), 0 in bank
Day 3: 45k on hand + 15k in 3 day cd matures = 19965 total = 64965 onhand, 0 in bank, 0 in CD

Takes 45k into 1 day cd, leaves 19965 on hand

Day 4:
CD matures = 47250+ 19965 on hand + 15k for vote = 82215 on hand, 0 in bank, 0 in cd

Put 75k into a 1 day CD = 7215 left on hand, 0 in bank..



Based off of the numbers Barkeep gave earlier in the game for how much interest each CD pays off, the numbers on the CDs add up. The two discrepencies that I find are:

1) 9k was stolen, but this says you would only have 7215 available to be stolen.
2) Your CD that you opened last night shouldn't be available to you today.. You shouldn't have any money on hand currently.

im counting it as available when I can use it... and since there isnothing to use it on, yes you are right!

[claphamsa]

Im not trying to get u to trust him, just pointing out that there is no reasonto belive he is good.

[claphamsa]

ill check my spreadsheet to fugureout why im 2K off. but then again I already have 4 votes so it really doesnt matter....

[hoopsguy]

Clap, this is why I want to have the discussion as early as possible - to prevent this from becoming a runaway.

We've got votes, and money for extra votes, that can be spent to save you if we realize that we are making a tragic mistake. I don't think you are the only person that deserves scrutiny today, even though it seems to be playing out this way.

[hoopsguy]

Barkeep, if the Wolves spend money successfully bribe a person, what happens to that money? Does it disappear from the game? Do the wolves keep that money?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

During the game the Cutthroats will have the chance to bribe a player or players. If they meet the asking price for a player, that player will be converted to the cutthroat side and the money removed from the game. If the bribe attempt fails that player gets to keep the attempted bribe.

Money looks to be removed from the game.

[The Jackal]

OK, I'm caught up. I see no one is too fond of my end game strategy. I accumlated my money by putting 10 grand in a 3 day CD on the first day, and simply voting every day (except the one), and not bidding on/winning any services. I don't think it's relevant where my money is except to the wolves, so unless more than one of you are interested, I think I'll keep that info to myself.

I see there's a bit of a run on clap, but I still encourage you to think about ending the game in this phase.. I'm pretty sure we'd have more money, unless they've bribed multiple people.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

OK, I'm caught up. I see no one is too fond of my end game strategy. I accumlated my money by putting 10 grand in a 3 day CD on the first day, and simply voting every day (except the one), and not bidding on/winning any services. I don't think it's relevant where my money is except to the wolves, so unless more than one of you are interested, I think I'll keep that info to myself.

I see there's a bit of a run on clap, but I still encourage you to think about ending the game in this phase.. I'm pretty sure we'd have more money, unless they've bribed multiple people.

I am really unsure in regards to this approach. I think I need more convincing before I jump into perhaps the riskiest move of the game for us. Right now we appear to be in the driver seat, it feels that the only real likely way we lose right now is to jump in and end the game when we have less money than them.

I think I will need convincing that someone has some pretty decent idea of how much money the wolves started with or an idea of how to figure that out. Until we know that piece of the puzzle, I think this is a risky move, one that could lose the game for us.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Barkeep, if the Wolves spend money successfully bribe a person, what happens to that money? Does it disappear from the game? Do the wolves keep that money?

Alan is correct. Money used in a bribe goes away. Unsuccessful bribes, however, stay with the person who they attempted to bribe.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Clap, this is why I want to have the discussion as early as possible - to prevent this from becoming a runaway.

We've got votes, and money for extra votes, that can be spent to save you if we realize that we are making a tragic mistake. I don't think you are the only person that deserves scrutiny today, even though it seems to be playing out this way.

I disagree.. I had 3 votes before I even said anything,. this was a run set up by he wolves.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I am really unsure in regards to this approach. I think I need more convincing before I jump into perhaps the riskiest move of the game for us. Right now we appear to be in the driver seat, it feels that the only real likely way we lose right now is to jump in and end the game when we have less money than them.

I think I will need convincing that someone has some pretty decent idea of how much money the wolves started with or an idea of how to figure that out. Until we know that piece of the puzzle, I think this is a risky move, one that could lose the game for us.

The main thing I was going off was that the less people there are without killing multiple cutthroats, the likelier they'll have an equal amount of money. If we don't want to run with it and would rather take our chances in a later endgame, that's alright. It's definitely a risky move.

[hoopsguy]

Given that the bribe money leaves the game, I'm more inclined to join with Jackal in moving for an end game.

Could it lose us the game? Yep, but we could also lose the game playing standard werewolf with the conversion coming into play. I think this is a real possibility if Clap is a hapless villager instead of a cunning member of the Rich.

After running numbers yesterday I believed we were 200K ahead if the ratio right now is 8-3. This was without factoring in that the wolves would have had to burn money on the bribe. Would they bother taking a chance on a bribe for anything less than 100K?

If they tried 80K and failed, that is a 160K swing in the overall money. But for 100K they know they bring someone over.

[hoopsguy]

Continuing this thought, I'm expecting we are up close to 300K if the following is true:
- started with 3 wolves
- wolves started with same money as villagers
- wolves didn't get a bargain basement bribe on Night 4

Now these probably are not all true. But do you expect there are enough differences to erase 300K?

[SnDvls]

VOTE END GAME

I think this one is about over in favor of us good guys.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, I see you reading the thread ... there isn't that much to catch up on today.

What is your confidence level that we have a wolf in Clap? 50%? If higher, how much higher?

Do you think there are big fundamental flaws in my money analysis from yesterday and today? I know you were looking to run the numbers on this today, based on your post last night.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Continuing this thought, I'm expecting we are up close to 300K if the following is true:
- started with 3 wolves
- wolves started with same money as villagers
- wolves didn't get a bargain basement bribe on Night 4

Now these probably are not all true. But do you expect there are enough differences to erase 300K?

Another thing to consider is whether or not either side has people with money in CDs which do not count towards the end amount. I just think there are too many variables right now that factor in to make this decision seem like a sound one to me. I have a hard time believing that a game would be set up with a day 4 pretty sure fire win for our side.

If the game started out with 15 villagers, and 3 wolves. We assume the bribe breaks even from what we have discussed thus far ($100k cost to swing over roughly 100k worth of money).

So assuming pretty conservative amounts of growth daily and assuming that the wolves spent some money on services (As of yet, the only service I know that they have won was Passacaglia won Friend of the bank which was for a very tiny amount)...


Each day's growth is based on assuming everyone voted and 50% of money on each side was put into 1 day CDs:

Day 1 - Villagers 450k , Wolves 90k (15 villagers , 3 wolves)

Day 2 - Villagers 656,025 , Wolves 137,025 (13 villagers, 3 wolves)

Day 3 - Villagers 837425, wolves 185,450 (11 villagers, 3 wolves)

Day 4 - Villagers 993360 , wolves 235086 (9 villagers, 3 wolves)


Of course in our game, we've had a wolf found, and it appears the villagers have spent more money on services than the wolves. I think I can agree with what people are saying.. if the wolves started with the same amount of money that we did, then of course no contest.. we should have lots more money, no brainer lets end the game today..

Do we really think that Barkeep made a "broken" game though where there really was never a chance for the wolves to win? I am sorry, but I find it very hard to believe that they started with the same amount as us. I think what is likely is that they started with some form of advantage at the start to "even the playing field".

Right now Jackal is trying to convince us to vote to end the game on a hunch. I need better solid data points to be convinced.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Given that the bribe money leaves the game, I'm more inclined to join with Jackal in moving for an end game.

Could it lose us the game? Yep, but we could also lose the game playing standard werewolf with the conversion coming into play. I think this is a real possibility if Clap is a hapless villager instead of a cunning member of the Rich.

if only it wasnt too late for me

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Alan, I see you reading the thread ... there isn't that much to catch up on today.

What is your confidence level that we have a wolf in Clap? 50%? If higher, how much higher?

Do you think there are big fundamental flaws in my money analysis from yesterday and today? I know you were looking to run the numbers on this today, based on your post last night.

I think I must have been posting at the same time you asked this of me. My confidence that Claphasma is a wolf going into today probably was 40-50% considering that I had a group of three in Render, Schmidty, Claphasma that I felt there was likely two wolves within. Even if only one of the three were a wolf, and another wolf slid into my slight trust group of Jackal or Sndvls, that still is a 33% chance.

Based on Claphasma's answers today , or better yet how he answered, I think my confidence that he is a wolf has gone even higher. In a normal game, I would have voted Claphasma long ago. Only reason I haven't yet this game is due to no unvotes. He hasn't really improved my confidence any at all, and I would probably feel its better than 50% chance now that he is a wolf.

As for whether or not there is a fundamental flaw in your figuring the money, I think my biggest point I have regarding ending the game is how can anyone make an approximation to how much money the wolves may have. We know Passacaglia was Path's beneficiary. It didn't appear that they received much if any money from the other night kills based on what you said. I think for me it comes down to one of two possibilities: 1) Either your math totals are flawed to how much money they started with.. or 2) Barkeep has a flawed game...

[hoopsguy]

OK, here are my thoughts on Clap. I'll put the % of him as a wolf at 50, which is a pretty high number at this stage in the game without any real reveal or smoking gun.

I'll also assume we have an 8-3 lead, and that one of the wolves is going to be harder to ferret out down the stretch.

If we are wrong today and they get another night kill (not a sure thing, given that there is a bodyguard up for bid, correct?) then it moves to 6-3.

There is a chance - not sure how high - that the wolves could complete another bribe. I'm hoping that isn't the case, but if it is then we could be looking at a 5-4 game starting tomorrow with two conversions in the mix. That would be a nightmare to play out.

Scenario #1 (Clap = Wolf): we are in complete control of the game, barring another conversion

Scenario #2 (Clap = Villager): we are going to have a challenging game down the stretch

Scenario #3 (Clap = Villager, plus conversion, think this is worst case): we are hosed

There are additional variables, such as the night kill, the "no lynch" power purchased N1 that add another dimension to this process. So I think it is hard to really weigh how all of these shake out. But my larger point is that we may not be in as strong a position for a conventional werewolf game as we would like to believe at the moment.

[hoopsguy]

For the record, I'm also comfortable with the idea that I'm going to be perceived as trying to "save" Clap by encouraging discussion of our options.

I don't know if he is Cutthroat or Rich, but I'm sure there will be attempts to spin my position if he is lynched as a Cutthroat. So be it - I want to make sure we aren't rushing to judgement when multiple options are available to us today. Tomorrow, with lynch results + night kill + player kill ability for bid + (low?) potential for 2nd conversion could be a wildly different set of circumstances ... in either direction.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

There are additional variables, such as the night kill, the "no lynch" power purchased N1 that add another dimension to this process. So I think it is hard to really weigh how all of these shake out. But my larger point is that we may not be in as strong a position for a conventional werewolf game as we would like to believe at the moment.

In the various scenerios, how would delaying calling end game a day play out?

I think if various people are correct, that the wolves started with 30k only.. it really doesn't matter which day we end the game does it? We should have a substantial lead for the next few days or probably rest of the game.

So on these assumptions, lets go with the general idea that the wolves did start out with an advantage here.. how does delaying end of game here play out for us?

If we do not end the game today and Claphasma is a wolf, what does it mean? Normally we would say that Claphasma would likely have passed his money on to other wolves today.. but does he have any money to pass? I don't believe we have heard from Mr.W today regarding what happened with the thief action last night.. (did he indeed hit claphasma, how much money did he get, etc).. Chief Rum already said there was none in the bank.. Does that mean the rest is tied up in a CD? I don't recall one way or another, can wolves transfer CDs during the day behind the scenes?

If Claphasma is a villager, we have to assume he is telling us the truth regarding not having any money left on hand, and the money he has in a CD would be lost.. That amount in itself isn't close to be able to erase the lead that you projected we had. (300k lead?)

The next question comes into the night kill choice.. Like I mentioned earlier, in past night kills the evidence seemed to suggest that the wolves see very little if any of that money..

It just doesn't feel to me like we have our backs against the wall regarding needing to end the game to win today. it feels to me far riskier to take the chance on ending the game, than to let things play out longer. We can always change our mind tommorrow if Claphasma ends up being a villager. Like I said though, right now I would guess more likely than not he is a wolf currently based on today's play.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

For the record, I'm also comfortable with the idea that I'm going to be perceived as trying to "save" Clap by encouraging discussion of our options.

I don't know if he is Cutthroat or Rich, but I'm sure there will be attempts to spin my position if he is lynched as a Cutthroat. So be it - I want to make sure we aren't rushing to judgement when multiple options are available to us today. Tomorrow, with lynch results + night kill + player kill ability for bid + (low?) potential for 2nd conversion could be a wildly different set of circumstances ... in either direction.

I felt my belief regarding conversions thus far was that the wolves likely had to spend 100k to ensure a conversion, and likely aren't getting much more than 100k back if even that much. So even if there is a chance at a second conversion, I still don't think it would be enough to overcome your perceived lead that we have.

I think the safe play for us to make is lynch Claphasma today, if he is a wolf, we re-evaluate tommorrow. If he is a villager then we didn't really hurt ourselves much in today's phase as his CD wouldn't count to end game total anyways today and he has no other money supposedly.

[hoopsguy]

I think we need to hear from MrW on Clap's money. If he is confirming that only 7-9K was on hand, in conjunction with Chief's claim on an empty bank account then that only leaves money in the CD.

Does it make sense for wolf Clap (one of two, if assumptions are correct) to have stashed his money into CDs at this point in the game? That means that one wolf won't be able to influence votes or bid on services - they might want the seer at this stage in the game, or an extra night kill ...

This has been gnawing at me and it is why I'm not in a rush to vote for Clap. If he has played as a wolf, then it has been one with poor money management skills when there was a team that should have been able to strategize together on these points.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

OK, here are my thoughts on Clap. I'll put the % of him as a wolf at 50, which is a pretty high number at this stage in the game without any real reveal or smoking gun.

I'll also assume we have an 8-3 lead, and that one of the wolves is going to be harder to ferret out down the stretch.

If we are wrong today and they get another night kill (not a sure thing, given that there is a bodyguard up for bid, correct?) then it moves to 6-3.

There is a chance - not sure how high - that the wolves could complete another bribe. I'm hoping that isn't the case, but if it is then we could be looking at a 5-4 game starting tomorrow with two conversions in the mix. That would be a nightmare to play out.

Scenario #1 (Clap = Wolf): we are in complete control of the game, barring another conversion

Scenario #2 (Clap = Villager): we are going to have a challenging game down the stretch

Scenario #3 (Clap = Villager, plus conversion, think this is worst case): we are hosed

There are additional variables, such as the night kill, the "no lynch" power purchased N1 that add another dimension to this process. So I think it is hard to really weigh how all of these shake out. But my larger point is that we may not be in as strong a position for a conventional werewolf game as we would like to believe at the moment.

we hsould have gambling here... I bet 100K you were the conversion.... most logical choice... we KNOW someone was converted..... you have the most money... (I think)

[Alan T]

He doesn't appear to be responding in kind to your love Hoops

His last post is what I am referring to.. instead of responding to the holes in his statements, he is trying to shift the attention elsewhere.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, if he is Rich that takes away about 80K of assets from the Rich, which most definitely cuts into our lead. Similarly, it takes away 15K that we would get today from his vote. So that pulls about 100K away from the Rich if we are making a mistake.

Night kill - the assets are going to be passed somewhere. They may stay with the Rich, they may transfer to the Cutthroats.

2nd Night kill (purchased) - same process as above.

So there is absolutely a chance that we are going to see significant movement on our ability to win the game through the money option.

A second conversion, if they have that option, potentially deprives us of the ability to get 60% of the votes to end the game by selecting the money option. Again, I'm not putting much stock in this but I do think it is in the realm of possibility.

[Alan T]

So basically we're back to gambling over how much money the wolves started with then? I can see where you are coming from, I just feel very uneasy voting to end the game when we have no idea what will happen when things feel pretty good today as far as a small list to vote for.

You and I both know I've been wrong probably more times than I have been right in these games, so I may be wrong on Claphasma here too... but you have to admit seeing where I am coming from in my thoughts on him at this point.

I think I'm going to spend a little time trying to see if I can match up who bought what services through the game so we can have an idea of how much money wolves have or may have spent on services vs us.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Alan T

He doesn't appear to be responding in kind to your love Hoops

His last post is what I am referring to.. instead of responding to the holes in his statements, he is trying to shift the attention elsewhere.

Yeah, I'm a little confused by his approach too - but that doesn't mean he is a Cutthroat.

I'm a very, very happy guy if he is a Cutthroat and we lynch him at the end of the day. I've been wrong in games before, I'll be wrong again. It won't hurt my pride or anything like that. I'm just trying to assess risk with this vote, and right now Clap feels like a fairly significant risk because of what we understand about his finances. Unless there are more wolves than I figure, I don't understand why they would bury their money in CDs today. Having some fluidity among their assets would seem to be important if the vote is going the wrong way. Then again, Pass didn't have money available at the deadline ... (sigh) who knows? Should make for some interesting post-game discussion.

[hoopsguy]

I think I'm going to spend a little time trying to see if I can match up who bought what services through the game so we can have an idea of how much money wolves have or may have spent on services vs us.

I tried to account for this in my initial work on the subject yesterday. I'll dig up the post number if you want it. Obviously there is a lot of guesswork out there, starting with which side spent 30K (and won) on Day 1 for the no-bankrupt option.

[hoopsguy]

Barkeep, just to confirm - can wolves privately pass money tied up in a CD between each other?

If not, I don't think that the wolves would want to tie up the majority of their assets in this way at any point in the game. Let alone during mid/end game as they accrue more assets.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Barkeep, just to confirm - can wolves privately pass money tied up in a CD between each other?

No they may not. Money in a CD is inaccessible for Cutthroats and Rich alike.

[Alan T]

This is based on my current personal trust lists:

Villagers:
7500 - Lathum
21455 - Alan
12500 - Chief
38500 - Alan
40002 - Mr.W
5000 - Chief
10107 - Tyrith

Total: 135064

Wolves:
$7 or $51 - Passacaglia (Friend at the Bank)

Total: $7 - $51


Unknown:
$7 or $51 - Friend at the Bank
$30000 - Govt Insider
$2500 - Bodyguard
$25000 - Schmidty (Private Investigator)
$66000 - Wiretapper
$25005 - Notary Public

TOtal: Appx 148505

Day 1:
($7 - ? ) Friend at the Bank: Learn amounts all players have in the bank
($7500 - Lathum?) Private Investigator: Will learn the side (Cutthroat or Rich) of 1 player. Must be used night 1.
($30000 - ? ) Government Insider: May avoid bankruptcy one time. This will be used automatically and is not given to your beneficiary upon death.

Day 2:
($51 - ?) Friend at the Bank: Learn amounts all players have in the bank
($2500 - ?) Bodyguard Firm: Winning player protected from attacks. Must be used Night 2.
($25000 - Schmidty) Private Investigator: Will learn the side (Cutthroat or Rich) of 1 player. Must be used night 2.
($21455 - Alan) Telecommunications Mogul: May choose on Day 3 to either block all Cutthroat communication, or to allow all players PM rights.

Day 3:

(12500 - Chief Rum) Bodyguard Firm: May choose 1 player to be protected from attacks. May be used any night.
(38500 - Alan) Private Investigator: Will learn the side (Cutthroat or Rich) of a player on each of two nights. Must be used night 3 & 4.
(40002 - Mr.Wednesday ) Thief: May choose to rob a player’s on hand OR Bank Account. May be used any night, but is not given to your beneficiary upon death.

Day 4:
(5000 - Chief RUm) Friend at the Bank: Learn amounts all players have in the bank
(66000 - ? ) Wiretapper: Receives 20% of all money from successful auction bids on Days 4 & 5.
(25005 - ?) Notary Public: May change the beneficiary on another player’s will (without their knowledge). Must be used by Night 6.
(10107 - Tyrith) Financial Analyst: Will learn the total money of 1 player. Must be used night 4.

I wasn't sure which day Passacaglia won the Friend at the Bank, nor am I sure who won the other day. We don't know who won the Govt Insider, but I think that could easily have been won by a wolf. Same with Wiretapper or Notary Public. I can see a case for either side wanting to bid on those. We don't know what side Schmidty is on or his PI bid earlier in the game, the only one of the unknown collumn that I feel likely is a villager bid was the bodyguard.

After looking all of this up, I don't think it really tells me much of anything. We only have a confirmed $51 max that wolves have bid on, but it seems likely that they -could- have gotten other services and we just don't know it...

[Alan T]

I don't know.. I think I am sold in my head on Claphasma being a wolf. Your question regarding why he has money tied up in a CD is valid though.. Perhaps he is the one with the Govt Insider role.. and knows that he would live through today, so the money there wouldn't be at risk. Perhaps Chief is right that the wolves didn't know that CDs don't count to the end game amount either. Of course this entire line of thinking is a decent arguement against my point of waiting to end the game.

I just think the arguement for Render not being a wolf is stronger in my head than Claphasma. The only other place I would consider voting would be Schmidty, but we haven't really looked at him too much at all up till now.

[hoopsguy]

At this point I won't be voting for Clap for the following reasons:
1.) Pass should have transferred money to other wolves at the end of Day 4, assuming he had money. Given Alan's list of services purchased, the only way he wouldn't have had some money (remember, he inherited Path's money) is if it was all in CDs. Hmm, not buying that one.
2.) The money transferred would not have gone into CDs prior to other night actions completing (don't know this for sure)
3.) MrW cleaned out Clap's on-hand money
4.) Chief says Clap had no on-hand money
5.) Since all of Clap's money is stuck in CD's, he can't use it for extra votes, bidding on services, or to transfer in the event he is in a bad position today

Time to take a look at SnDvls.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Summary of Important Posts

BK, this is a nice idea that I wish had some content Now time to go dig up Day 2 and 3 stuff ...

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

BK, this is a nice idea that I wish had some content Now time to go dig up Day 2 and 3 stuff ...

I am pretty sure it is BK's way of saying that nothing we have posted so far this game is that important.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Well, this seems like the randomness of a Day 1 vote, with the pressure of a Later-than-Day-1 vote. I'm looking at SnDvls. It was his post that led us to think that DT hadn't voted, plus he's doubled up his vengeance vote on mau, which just pings my radar a little.

VOTE SNDVLS

Here is Passacaglia's Day 2 vote for SnDvls. At the time it created a five-way tie with one vote each. Not exactly a pressure vote at the time, especially after I came out and said that SnDvls wasn't the reason I believed DT had not voted (but instead it was the Day 1 recap of votes).

A little more pressure was applied later when another vote came on SnDvls, but Pass was spinning the next day that Tyrith (who I think was the 4th vote on another candidate, with 2nd and 3rd being dead villagers Mauboy and Saldana) was trying to save SnDvls. He said he didn't suspect either SnDvls or Tyrith, but voted Tyrith on Day 3.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I am pretty sure it is BK's way of saying that nothing we have posted so far this game is that important.

It is even underlined, as if to give off the appearance of a hyperlink. But ... nothing.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

BK, this is a nice idea that I wish had some content Now time to go dig up Day 2 and 3 stuff ...

Yeah maintaining that post, which I think IS important, is not one of my strengths as a GM. Sorry.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

It is even underlined, as if to give off the appearance of a hyperlink. But ... nothing.

I've edited it so as not to taunt you any longer .

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Here is Passacaglia's Day 2 vote for SnDvls. At the time it created a five-way tie with one vote each. Not exactly a pressure vote at the time, especially after I came out and said that SnDvls wasn't the reason I believed DT had not voted (but instead it was the Day 1 recap of votes).

A little more pressure was applied later when another vote came on SnDvls, but Pass was spinning the next day that Tyrith (who I think was the 4th vote on another candidate, with 2nd and 3rd being dead villagers Mauboy and Saldana) was trying to save SnDvls. He said he didn't suspect either SnDvls or Tyrith, but voted Tyrith on Day 3.

Perhaps I am remembering the conversation wrong, but my memory seems to remember Passacaglia trying to get myself and a couple of others to buy into the Sndvls arguement, and then even openly suggested that I was trying to protect Sndvls by simply not agreeing with his viewpoint of the events. After it was obvious that he wasn't getting any traction with Sndvls, he went with Tyrith instead (after you suggested you were looking at him that day).

This is my sole reason for not lumping Sndvls in the grouping of today's suspects. If I am rememberring incorrectly, that could change.. but since I am leaving in 14 minutes, I don't really have time to go hunt down those posts right now. I think I am remembering the entire interaction correctly though.

[hoopsguy]

I'll spend some time on this as well tonight. I've got kid duties for the next few hours, so I probably won't be able to lock in on this until at least 7PM (CST).

I had speculated last night that SnDvls and Clap were unlikely to be on the same team as wolves, given their identical votes on Days 2 and 3 in races between villagers (known for D2, presumed for D3). So if I'm not buying Clap as a wolf today then I'm going to need to see something compelling to dissuade me from SnDvls tonight.

If someone has time to dig into the D2 flow of posts around Pass/SnDvls, as well as comments by Pass on SnDvls/Tyrithon D3 that would be great. Otherwise, I'll get to it when I'm back online.

[Alan T]

I'm sorry Hoops, I just can't be sure that I will be able to get on again tonight. I think there are 4 votes on Claphasma already, so mine probably puts him away here but I just can't risk missing out on the 15k from the vote by not getting back tonight.

Vote Claphasma

[Mr. Wednesday]

Sorry for the late arrival today. I've been really busy, but I should have time now to catch up on things.

First things first: Because I was interested in the Chief Rum - claphamsa axis (where clap's vote on Passacaglia created a tie), I elected to steal the on-hand cash from claphamsa. I only got $9k from him, which in and of itself doesn't seem particularly unusual, but may indicate something when we add in his bank total.

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

My guess would be twofold: A) we're at the point where we can vote to end the game, and if he can move his money away, it does the wolves more good to keep that money in the fold with them than to keep himself alive for another day; and B) for exactly what you're doing--put suspicion on a villager and get you guys to bankrupt me while the wolves live another day.

Any move by the wolves that bankrupts a villager is +EV, as long as it costs less to bankrupt him than he had on hand. From the wolves point of view, it's up in the air whether you get voted off the next day, as the evidence is purely circumstantial (and not particularly damning at that, I found it interesting and somewhat suspicious, but not even certain enough to make you my trial-by-theft target); there's still a lot of uncertainty, plus there's a $30k swing in money simply by having another wolf collecting the vote salary vs. another villager.

For all of those reasons, it would have been a reasonable play for Pass to spend $20k to move the vote. Not to mention that it would have cost another $20k to undo the action.