WW XCIX: Seville High, Book Two: The Janitor Lives!!! Game Over - Blakekin Win!!!!

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

One other thing, IMHO, right now our most valuable member is ntn with his ability to become a seer at random so I look forward to seeing his vote.

Post 699 was meant to try and draw a Blakekin attack and did. That was my only block.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

quiet, nadia!

This strikes me as wolfy!

[nfg22]

I figured so. I figured the reason you were not killed is because the wolves knew you were the BG and didnt want to lose a kill on a block. The question is..between Schmidty and Martin...who do we go with...I mean im obviously not a target right?:/

[nfg22]

Well Im going to go with gut since no discussion is available..
VOTE PURDUEBRAD

[nfg22]

I just think that's the best decision ...

[nfg22]

Jk..
UNVOTE PURDUEBRAD
VOTE MARTIN D

[PurdueBrad]

Hehe, thanks nfg. You had me going there for a minute!

[nfg22]

To me its between Martin D and Schmidty, sans a great wolf game by hoops I think our last two wolves lie there...

[hoopsguy]

PB, I'm assuming you did not learn who was the wolf? If that is the case, then I don't see how the wolves would have learned who was the bodyguard - that does not strike me as well balanced.

[PurdueBrad]

That sounds about right nfg, I've got it between the three of you but that still leaves a 2/3 chance, again assuming Hoops is village.

[hoopsguy]

I'm still trying to understand why the wolves would have not taken a shot at PB on N3, N4, N5, N6, and N7 - that is very, very hard for me to accept when their kill targets were Jets06 and Lerriuqs.

[PurdueBrad]

I did not learn the Blakekin but I doubt they learned I was BG either. Sorry for spoiling the plan Hoops.

[hoopsguy]

I also can conceive a case where the bodyguard is not in the game, something that the wolves would know per the rules.

We got two seers - regular and junior. That might be the balance to offset the bodyguard, which is a pretty standard role.

[PurdueBrad]

I think they were then fishing but I'm not 100% on that. And, again, my analysis has been way off this game.

[hoopsguy]

I can understand why they did not come for me - I've published trust lists every day that included one of their number (PB or Schmidty?). I've been under heat for all but two days. I gave enough hints for them to guess my role. All of those things make some sense to me.

But not going after PB for five days? As the only cleared guy in the game? Seriously, how in the world were Jets and Lerriuqs even remotely better targets on the nights they were claimed?

[PurdueBrad]

Hoops, we lose this game if you lynch me, I swear it.

[hoopsguy]

I think there is a decent chance that MartinD is a wolf, but if I had to guess who I think is most likely right now it would be PB. It definitely spooked me yesterday when Clap asked that question because I don't think a wolf would want any suggestions that there would be a conversion mechanic in the game.

The rules do not spell out a conversion, otherwise my vote would already be down.

[PurdueBrad]

I'll follow on your second thought and put up the candidate to match Martin D.

vote Schmidty

[hoopsguy]

Screw it, I'll go with a MartinD vote for now - it is the "safer" play, I think. And hope that there was just one wolf who was ignoring the cleared villager for five days.

[hoopsguy]

VOTE MARTIND

[PurdueBrad]

Hoops, if you feel that strongly, put a vote on me.

[hoopsguy]

Anyway, have to grab some lunch and have a few meetings this afternoon. I'll definitely be around for more discussion in a couple of hours - pretty much as soon as I'm able to pull away from my work commitments.

[PurdueBrad]

I think a vote on me from you Hoops isn't such a bad idea, honestly.

[nfg22]

Hoops your being way too paranoid...PB is good and is the BG. He was cleared by the seer in a game when the cunning was not listed as available. The wolves most likely pegged you as the diseased because you alluded to it and knew he was the BG. Even if they didnt know he was a BG, he has a 50% chance of being guarded due to being the only COT and that makes him a bad target.

[nfg22]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

I think a vote on me from you Hoops isn't such a bad idea, honestly.

No! We cant spread out. If there are two wolves and three village. They can just switch anywhere at any time and end the game if we spread out too much.

[PurdueBrad]

I don't mind being the second lynch candidate, put my against Martin D if that is who you guys want and see where everyone votes.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by nfg22

No! We cant spread out. If there are two wolves and three village. They can just switch anywhere at any time and end the game if we spread out too much.

Agreed, two candidates is ideal. I want to make the wolves make a tough choice. Vote to lynch the BG or vote to lynch their own.

[nfg22]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Agreed, two candidates is ideal. I want to make the wolves make a tough choice. Vote to lynch the BG or vote to lynch their own.

But lynching you and we lose the game. 3/2

[PurdueBrad]

With you, me and Hoops, we have the votes to control it. I'm just saying, let them choose and then we move our votes where we want.

[nfg22]

understood

[PurdueBrad]

unvote Schmidty

vote Martin D

[nfg22]

hoops...thoughts?

[MartinD]

I can see that a few things have been happening while I've been at work today...

I checked up on the thread over breakfast - have to say that I didn't expect claphamsa to come up villager, as he was definitely giving off wolfish signs (from my point of view at least). That puts us in a tough position - while it's possible that we're sitting at 4-1 here, I believe that it's pretty likely that it's 3-2 and a potential endgame scenario. (Yes, I'm very good at stating the obvious! )

I know that I have no way to prove this, but I'm a vanilla villager/High Schooler, and I don't need to tell anyone that lynching a villager today would be very bad for the village...

For what it's worth, my opinion on the four remaining players is:
- PB is exactly what the seer said he is - there's no obvious conversion mechanic in the game, and I find it difficult to believe that Abe would put a secret conversion mechanic in the game (I have to admit that this is a possibility, though - just don't see it being particularly likely)
- nfg22 is the player I trust least at this point - my feeling is that an nfg lynch will come up wolf (although I could be wrong on this)
- not sure what to think about hoopsguy and schmidty - my instinct is to trust them (particuarly hoopsguy, as his role-reveal fits in with what I was guessing his role to be), but one of them surely has to be a wolf

I'll be around for the next ten minutes or so, but need to head out for a run soon - will be around for a while later on.

[nfg22]

Martin how can you believe there are two wolves left but then you trust everyone but me?

[MartinD]

Originally Posted by nfg22

Martin how can you believe there are two wolves left but then you trust everyone but me?

I'm still pretty new to the game, and still have problems with reading players. My instincts are telling me that PB, hoops and Schmidty deserve at least a little trust, based on what's happened so far during the game, but I also know that at least one of them has to be a wolf. One of these guys is playing a very good game, and I'm having problems working out who...

[nfg22]

So Im not playing a good game? Im glad im just the sheep kicked around.

[nfg22]

[MartinD]

Originally Posted by nfg22

So Im not playing a good game? Im glad im just the sheep kicked around.

I didn't say that you weren't playing a good game - just that I don't have the same level of trust in you that I have in the other three guys. It's possible that you could be a villager - I just don't think that it's very likely.


(And with that, I'm out for a couple of hours...)

[nfg22]

im curious as to hoops and schmidtys thoughts

[hoopsguy]

I just can't fathom that the wolves have left PB alive for five straight days without attempting a kill on him. Yet they attempted to kill NTN twice, the first time when he was far from cleared. Then took out players with a huge amount less trust than PB (or me the last two nights).

If there is only one wolf left and it is PB then we maybe can clean that mess up tomorrow. But I think that there are two votes and I think that PB is probably the best vote today, even though it does not seem that anyone else shares that opinion.

Bottom line - I need to get the other two villagers to agree with me on a candidate, so I'm trying to guess the other wolf if I can't adequately sell the PB scenario. MartinD is my best guess at the other wolf right now.

[hoopsguy]

NFG, MartinD - are you guys both claiming vanilla villager?

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by nfg22

im curious as to hoops and schmidtys thoughts

As I've mentioned, I'm on vacation, and will hardly be around today (or any time for 2 weeks), so I can't respond to everything.

As far defending myself, I've done that multiple times, and there's not much else to say. I would role-reveal if it would help me, but I don't have any role at all except for some "flavor" in my PM from Abe.

This is it - I just can't keep letting hoops lead us all around with a leash. If he's clean, and I blow it, I'm sorry, but I can't just keep doing nothing with regard to him.

VOTE HOOPS

[Schmidty]

Going golfing soon, so I won't be around for a while.

[MartinD]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

NFG, MartinD - are you guys both claiming vanilla villager?

I think that nfg claimed a minor role a bit earlier - will just check back a page or two...

[hoopsguy]

Schmidty - if there are two wolves you are sealing the game for them with that vote. I just hate votes like that - it has no bearing on what has actually happened in the game but is entirely predicated by the fact that I'm still around.

I offered you a chance to talk about why you suspected me last night. You did not do so.

I've led the charge (for three days) for the only wolf that we've actually caught, but somehow I'm the person that is "leading us around". That is just crazy.

[MartinD]

Originally Posted by nfg22

Well I know I havent been around at deadline but I said that when we started the game...or actually when I signed up. Im not glad that Claph died but I know that it wouldnt have been much better if we lynched me. This proves my theory right that the wolves had two on Jackal.

Just because I know i will be very much under the gun, I am going to reveal now instead of later. I am "Nobody Likes You". Weird cause ny guy is kinda popular but thats the role I have. I will die in a tie. Thankfully we havent gotten that far yet.

I dont know who to go with and am looking for direction. Hoops could have pulled the ultimate in that Jackal lynch but I dont think so. What are your thought guys?

This would be what I was remembering - post 1274...

[hoopsguy]

NFG - want to join me in voting for Schmidty? If I'm going to end up voting for a villager (I'm pretty sure that PB is a wolf, but not as sure about MartinD versus Schmidty) then I might as well make a spite vote myself.

[hoopsguy]

Schmidty - I'm not going to make a spite vote but it gets tiring seeing you make "rep" votes on me game after game and be wrong just about every time. Abe did not want us to bring other games into this one, so I won't cite examples. But you are wrong about me way more than you are right when you decide to get all narrow-minded like you seem to be with this vote.

[MartinD]

hoops - while I've been enjoying following your train of thought during the last couple of days, and we've had some success going down the paths you suggest, I draw the line at voting for PurdueBrad. In a game that doesn't have an obvious conversion mechanism, I don't think that lynching the only player who has been cleared by the seer is a good play.

OK, I may be wrong in thinking that there's no conversion mechanism in this game (and if I am, PB is the obvious target!), but I'm willing to take that chance.

Still thinking about my vote - you would think that it would get easier as the number of players falls...

[PurdueBrad]

Hoops, this is a very odd place, where I actually trust(ed) you and you seem to completely distrust me. I ask the same question you do, why not off me, I agree, but not to the point where it would make me think that that person would be a wolf, particularly when there are four uncleared players on the board. I doubt I will follow Schmidty's vote for you but at this point, it may not be as misguided as I once thought.