WW CLVII - Ghostbusters - Game Over (result in post 1521)

[Chubby]

so what do we think the numbers are?

[Autumn]

Murray is not what I expected. If we're lucky maybe Zinto was a possible convert. I wonder if JAG would tell us that.

I WONDER.

[Autumn]

I was guessing that if we lost two villagers we'd be 5-1-3? Does that even make sense?

[Autumn]

Looks like I have to do it again. We lucked out with no convert (sorry, bye murray). Still a cultist and roled villagers out there.

[murrayyyyy]

Well if makes you guys feel any better I got a date with someone on the rebound tomorrow night so I wouldn't be around anyway :-P

[mauchow]

Umm I think we have to be perfect as a village from here on out.

[Autumn]

5-1-3, yeah, I think that's right. (1 being cultist). They can't quite gang up in the vote yet.

[fontisian]

Time for a seer reveal?

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

Well if makes you guys feel any better I got a date with someone on the rebound tomorrow night so I wouldn't be around anyway :-P

Sounds much better than hanging around here.

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Murray is not what I expected. If we're lucky maybe Zinto was a possible convert. I wonder if JAG would tell us that.

I WONDER.

my guess is we aren't being told

[mauchow]

Assuming it is what Autumn says it is 5-3-1.

If it's 6-2-1 then we might still be okay. Especially if our seer has FOUR scans..

I definitely think today is the day of the reveal, too.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by fontisian

Time for a seer reveal?

God, I hope so. Here's hoping the seer actually has some results that are useful.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by mauchow

Assuming it is what Autumn says it is 5-3-1.

If it's 6-2-1 then we might still be okay. Especially if our seer has FOUR scans..

I definitely think today is the day of the reveal, too.

I guess it's conceivable they had a block, not a convert, but I don't think so. If so they would have known who that was and gone back after them.

And I can't imagine they started with only two baddies. Seems clear ther'es at least two terror dogs. The worry is that it's actually 4-4-1.

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Sounds much better than hanging around here.

It's the only reveal I had going for me all day lol.

Best of luck village.

[Chubby]

the only other sliver of i hope I see in the rules is that the ghosts can't win if there's 2 ghostbusters with a charge of their pack left. cross the streams would auto proc but who the hell knows what would happen

otherwise, yes, we better be perfect me thinks

[Autumn]

Yeah they've got to hit a ghostbuster and they're missing so far. Even if they hit one, there's a chance it will fail though which may give us an extra day.

[Autumn]

Best case: seer reveals and can vouch for several other villagers (well, best case is has a wolf). We narrow down the 2-3 wolves among 4-5 folks and have a good shot at a vote.

Worst case: seer reveals and has a bunch of dead folks as scans and we kick them in the shins.

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Yeah they've got to hit a ghostbuster and they're missing so far. Even if they hit one, there's a chance it will fail though which may give us an extra day.

if i read the rules right, if we lynch another villager then then ghosts deplete a GB's pack (even if they don't kill them) it could still be game over if after the lynch is makes us even

[mauchow]

I guess I can wait impatiently til the morning to hopefully read up on the seer results.

[Chubby]

time to hit the sack

[mauchow]

Passa avoiding conflict completely tonight despite supposedly being around to say "Hello" really doesn't sit well with me and will get a long close look tomorrow.

Almost seemed like one of those bot programs. If you say Passa's name he automatically says, "Hi" or "Hello".

[Autumn]

Yeah, I'm going to be discouraged if Pass and Katy are wolves. Well, I'm discouraged if they're villagers too.

Heading to bed. I think we're fairly done for if the seer doesn't reveal, so hopefully they will. But I will try to figure out tomorrow where I would vote independent of that.

[bhlloy]

Obviously a big +1 to the seer having to reveal. Even if that's only to clear a couple of villagers that's a huge help. Not sure where we go from here

[KatyLied]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Yeah, I'm going to be discouraged if Pass and Katy are wolves. Well, I'm discouraged if they're villagers too.

I'm happy to be alive but the circumstances are unfortunate. Sorry to lose one of the good guys.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by fontisian

Time for a seer reveal?

Definitely - and sooner rather than later. If eveyone has been on then I guess that they haven't scanned a wolf but a couple of villagers cleared would be a huge boon at this stage.

[Narcizo]

I'm going to guess that the wolves don't say much of anything until the seer has revealed. I, on the other hand, suspect that Autumn is Walter Peck. I think he thought Danny was a wolf so he piggybacked on him day two and three. I think he was looking for guidance yesterday so when/if I get a chance I'm going to look at the movement yesterday. Could be wrong of course.

I think I know the seer and maybe the duke. I shall see if I get time to look into things later. I hope I'm right about the seer as it should clear a fair bit up.

5-1-3 means 3 vanillas, 1 Peck, 2 starting wolves and the convertee.

[Narcizo]

I also have a very clear idea of the correct strategy here but I want to see what happens with the seer first.

[Chubby]

well I will say:

I ain't 'fraid of no ghosts.

and to my fellow ghostbuster... CROSS THE STREAMS!

[Narcizo]

Or, you know, wait a bit and see if we can't sort this out logically.

I presume that you're claiming to be Venkman then, Chubby? I really think we need to have full disclosure at this time. Just claiming to be a "Ghostbuster" means that you can't be called out and we need to build as big of a circle of trust as possible today.

[Narcizo]

Day One

20:43 #46 Lathum votes Autumn (1)
20:51 #49 Coffee votes Danny (1)
02:35 #57 Narcizo votes DaddyTorgo (1)
09:30 #68 Autumn votes Lathum (1)
09:43 #69 Britrock votes Chubby (1)

11:05 #75 Packer votes Autumn (2)
11:15 #76 Bhlloy votes Packer (1)
11:43 #82 murrayyyyy votes Coffee (1)
12:34 #85 mauchow votes Danny (2)
12:47 #89 Danny votes Lathum (2)

13:09 #91 Coffee unvotes Danny (1)
13:34 #95 Hoops votes DaddyTorgo (2)
14:13 #99 Coffee votes Packers (2)
14:32 #108 Chubby votes Mau (1)
15:54 #114 Pass votes Mau (2)
15:58 #119 Coffee unvotes Packers (1)
15:58 #119 Coffee votes DaddyTorgo (3)
15:59 #120 mau unvotes Danny (0)

16:07 #127 Mau votes Coffee (2)
16:15 #129 fontisian votes Lathum (3)
17:18 #134 britrock unvotes Chubby (0)
17:18 #134 britrock votes Coffee (3)
17:24 #137 Lathum unvotes Autumn (1)
17:24 #137 Lathum votes mau (3)
17:46 #139 Bhlloy unvotes Packers (0)
17:46 #139 Bhlloy votes Lathum (4)
17:53 #140 Lathum unvotes Mau (2)
17:53 #140 Lathum votes Coffee (4)

18:04 #146 Coffee unvotes DaddyTorgo (2)
18:04 #146 Coffee votes mau (3)
18:31 #150 Lathum unvotes Coffee (3)
18:31 #150 Lathum votes mau (4)
18:53 #160 Packer unvotes Autumn (0)
18:53 #161 Packers votes Coffee (4)
19:22 #171 Zinto votes Lathum (5)
19:58 #182 Mau unvotes Coffee (3)
19:58 #182 Mau votes DaddyTorgo (3)

20:00 #187 Danny unvotes Lathum (4)
20:00 #187 Danny votes DaddyTorgo (4)
20:02 #189 Lathum unvotes Mau (3)
20:02 #189 Lathum votes DaddyTorgo (5)
20:05 #199 DaddyTorgo votes Lathum (5)
20:28 #208 Coffee unvotes mau (2)
20:28 #208 Coffee votes DaddyTorgo (6)
20:29 #210 Daddy unvotes Lathum (4)
20:29 #210 Daddy votes Coffee (4)

20:50 #232 Brit unvotes Coffee (3)
20:50 #232 Brit votes Lathum (5)
20:50 #233 Daddy unvotes Coffee (2)
20:50 #233 Daddy votes Lathum (6)
20:53 #241 Zinto unvotes Lathum (5)
20:53 #241 Zinto votes Daddy (7)
20:57 #265 Chubby unvotes mau (1)
20:57 #265 Chubby votes Daddy (8)

Day One Tally:

8 DaddyTorgo - Narcizo (57), hoopsguy (95), mauchow (182), Danny (187), Lathum (189), Coffee Warlord (208), Zinto (241), Chubby (265)
5 Lathum - Autumn (68), fontisian (129), bhlloy (139), britrock88 (232), DaddyTorgo (233)
2 Coffee Warlord - murra5y (82), PackerFanatic (161)
1 mauchow - Passacaglia (114)

No Vote: Katylied

[Narcizo]

Day Two

21:36 #326 Lathum votes Autumn (1)
21:47 #329 murra5y votes Lathum (1)
22:31 #337 bhlloy votes Lathum (2)
07:30 #356 Chubby votes Coffee (1)
07:54 #360 Coffee votes Bhlloy (1)
08:04 #363 Narcizo votes Bhlloy (2)
09:45 #378 Autumn votes Passacaglia (1)
10:02 #382 Passacaglia votes Katylied (1)

10:41 #386 Bhlloy unvotes Lathum (1)
10:41 #386 Bhlloy votes Mau (1)
12:07 #390 Mau votes Coffee (2)
12:30 #396 Passacaglia unvotes Katylied (0)
13:15 #401 Danny votes Coffee (3)
13:22 #404 murra5y unvotes Lathum (0)
13:22 #404 murra5y votes Coffee (4)
13:30 #408 Packer votes Coffee (5)

13:47 #416 Passacaglia votes mau (2)
14:00 #423 Mau unvotes Coffee (4)
14:00 #423 Mau votes Lathum (1)
14:17 #429 Danny unvotes Coffee (3)
14:17 #429 Danny votes Packer (1)
14:23 #431 Coffee unvotes bhlloy (1)
14:23 #431 Coffee votes murra5y (1)
14:30 #434 Packer unvotes Coffee (2)
14:46 #441 Narcizo unvotes bhlloy (0)
14:46 #441 Narcizo votes murra5y (2)
14:55 #445 murra5y unvotes Coffee (1)
14:55 #445 murra5y votes Lathum (2)

15:10 #447 Packer votes Autumn (2)
15:32 #452 Autumn unvotes Passa (0)
15:32 #452 Autumn votes Mau (3)
15:58 #465 Passa unvotes Mau (2)
15:58 #465 Passa votes Coffee (2)
16:44 #481 fontisian votes Hoops (1)
16:54 #487 Danny unvotes Packer (0)
16:54 #487 Danny votes Coffee (3)
17:23 #496 Packer votes Coffee (4)

17:55 #504 Autumn unvotes Mau (1)
17:55 #504 Autumn votes Hoops (2)
17:58 #505 Danny unvotes Coffee (3)
17:58 #505 Danny votes Hoops (3)
18:43 #518 Katylied votes Lathum (3)
18:51 #523 Zinto votes Hoops (4)
19:26 #528 bhlloy unvotes mau (0)
19:26 #528 bhlloy votes Coffee (4)
19:33 #529 Lathum unvotes Autumn (0)
19:48 #534 Lathum votes Coffee (5)

20:06 #556 Coffee unvotes murra5y (1)
20:06 #556 Coffee votes Packers (1)
20:09 #561 Hoops votes Packers (2)
20:09 #562 Lathum unvotes Coffee (4)
20:09 #562 Lathum votes Packers (3)
20:30 #575 Chubby unvotes Coffee (3)
20:30 #575 Chubby votes Hoops (5)
20:38 #590 Hoops unvotes Packers (2)
20:38 #590 Hoops votes Coffee (4)
20:44 #600 Coffee unvotes Packers (1)
20:44 #600 Coffee votes Lathum (4)
20:47 #604 Lathum unvotes Packers (0)
20:47 #604 Lathum votes Coffee (5)

20:48 #610 Lathum unvotes Coffee (4)
20:48 #610 Lathum votes Hoops (6)
20:49 #612 murra5y unvotes Lathum (3)
20:49 #612 murra5y votes Coffee (5)
20:53 #626 mauchow unvotes Lathum (2)
20:53 #626 mauchow votes Coffee (6)
20:54 #629 Coffee unvotes Lathum (1)
20:54 #629 Coffee votes Hoops (7)
20:59 #647 Lathum unvotes Hoops (6)
20:59 #647 Lathum votes Coffee (7)


Day Two tally:

Coffee Warlord 7 - Passacaglia (465), PackerFanatic (496), bhlloy (528), hoopsguy (590), murra5y (612), mauchow (626), Lathum (647)
hoopsguy 6 - fontisian (481), Autumn (504), Danny (505), Zinto (523), Chubby (575), Coffee Warlord (629)
Lathum 1 - KatyLied (518)
murra5y 1 - Narcizo (441)

[Narcizo]

Day Three

21:26 #732 Danny votes Packers (1)
20:18 #764 murra5y votes Zinto (1)
07:43 #779 Narcizo votes bhlloy (1)
08:20 #787 Autumn votes Packers (2)
09:20 #806 mauchow votes Packers (3)
09:29 #810 Lathum votes bhlloy (2)
10:05 #815 bhlloy votes Zinto (2)

15:29 #865 Packer votes bhlloy (3)
15:33 #869 chubby votes Pass (1)
16:41 #898 Passa votes Packers (4)
17:01 #908 Chubby unvotes Pass (0)
17:01 #908 Chubby votes Lathum (1)
17:19 #918 Hoops votes Bhlloy (4)
17:21 #919 fontisian votes Zinto (3)

20:14 #932 Zinto votes Packers (5)
20:16 #933 fontisian unvotes Zinto (2)
20:16 #933 fontisian votes bhlloy (5)
20:25 #940 Lathum unvotes bhlloy (4)
20:25 #940 Lathum votes Packers (6)
20:58 #983 Katylied votes Packers (7)
20:59 #987 murra5y unvotes zinto (1)
20:59 #987 murra5y votes bhlloy (5)

Day Three Tally:

PackerFanatic 7 - Danny (732), Autumn (787), mauchow (806), Passacaglia (898), Zinto (932), Lathum (940), KatyLied (983)
bhlloy 5 - Narcizo (779), PackerFanatic (865), hoopsguy (918), fontisian (933), murra5y (987)
Zinto 1 - bhlloy (815)
Lathum 1 - Chubby (908)

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Or, you know, wait a bit and see if we can't sort this out logically.

I presume that you're claiming to be Venkman then, Chubby? I really think we need to have full disclosure at this time. Just claiming to be a "Ghostbuster" means that you can't be called out and we need to build as big of a circle of trust as possible today.

I don't think it's in our best interest to tell the ghosts how many charges of our proton packs we have. In fact, the other ghostbuster doesn't even really need to reveal.

I think our situation is dire enough to risk crossing the streams.

[mauchow]

I was thinking you might be the seer chubby.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Chubby

I don't think it's in our best interest to tell the ghosts how many charges of our proton packs we have. In fact, the other ghostbuster doesn't even really need to reveal.

I think our situation is dire enough to risk crossing the streams.

Really no. "The other ghostbuster doesn't even really need to reveal"? O Rly?

Anyway, my plan is thusly. Spengler and Venkman both reveal. If there's two Spengler's revealing then Venkman decides who we should kill, If there's only one then they both get to decide. The rest of us state our cases but we ALL vote the same way as Venkler. Given even one clear by Spengler then we have a better than 50:50 shot at hitting a wolf I'd say.

I'm vanilla as they come.

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Really no. "The other ghostbuster doesn't even really need to reveal"? O Rly?

Anyway, my plan is thusly. Spengler and Venkman both reveal. If there's two Spengler's revealing then Venkman decides who we should kill, If there's only one then they both get to decide. The rest of us state our cases but we ALL vote the same way as Venkler. Given even one clear by Spengler then we have a better than 50:50 shot at hitting a wolf I'd say.

I'm vanilla as they come.

yeah that plan is kinda not what I want to do. and since I have the proton pack, i think i'll make the decision as to what keeps me the most safe.

I can't really help clear people. Now, you could take that 2 ways: either I'm Egon and my scans are dead or I'm Venkman.

[Narcizo]

Day Four Vote

03:17 #1056 Narcizo votes Katylied (1)
04:36 #1060 Chubby votes murra5y (1)
06:28 #1062 Lathum votes Chubby (1)
07:20 #1065 Narcizo unvotes Katylied (0)
07:20 #1065 Narcizo votes murra5y (2)
09:19 #1089 Autumn votes Katylied (1)
10:17 #1101 Bhlloy votes Zinto (1)
10:50 #1121 murra5y votes katylied (2)

13:48 #1137 Narcizo unvotes murra5y (1)
13:48 #1137 Narcizo votes Katylied (3)
13:53 #1137 Narcizo unvotes Katylied (2)
14:30 #1147 mauchow votes zinto (2)
15:10 #1149 Narcizo votes murra5y (2)
16:07 #1150 Pass votes fontisian (1)
16:30 #1158 Autumn unvotes Katy (1)
16:30 #1158 Autumn votes mauchow (1)

16:39 #1164 Lathum unvotes Chubby (0)
16:39 #1164 Lathum votes Katylied (2)
16:46 #1168 Narcizo unvotes murra5y (1)
16:46 #1168 Narcizo votes Katylied (3)
17:12 #1175 katylied votes murra5y (2)
17:32 #1182 Zinto votes fontisian (2)
17:37 #1183 Chubby unvotes murra5y (1)
17:37 #1183 Chubby votes Zinto (3)
19:27 #1203 Zinto unvotes fontisian (1)
19:27 #1203 Zinto votes Katylied (4)
19:48 #1207 fontisian votes Chubby (1)
19:53 #1211 Autumn unvotes mauchow (0)
19:53 #1211 Autumn votes Zinto (4)
20:56 #1260 fontisian unvotes Chubby (0)
20:56 #1260 fontisian votes Katylied (5)
20:57 #1262 fontisian unvotes Katylied (4)
20:57 #1262 fontisian votes Zinto (5)

Day Four Tally

Zinto 5 - bhlloy (1101), mauchow (1147), Chubby (1183), Autumn (1211), fontisian (1262)
KatyLied 4 - murra5y (1121), Lathum (1164), Narcizo (1168), Zinto (1203)
fontisian 1 - Passacaglia (1150)
murra5y 1 - KatyLied (1175)

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by JAG

2. In a desperate situation (or anytime they feel like it if they are fine with throwing caution to the wind), then can Cross the Streams. Two Ghostbusters with at least one proton pack charge are required to submit this order for it to take place. If this occurs, it takes the place of a lynch during the day. The actual results of this are unpredictable but very likely to be highly destructive and could even make a bad situation worse. If the forces of Gozer would otherwise win due to ratio and two Ghostbusters remain with at least one charge left in each of their proton packs, this order will automatically be submitted and may give the Ghostbusters + Citizens a chance to save the game.

So you think it's better to take that chance AND remove your protection for the night. And it means that you can't do it again if the baddies actually get to equality. I don't think it's going to magically win the game for us but in the circumstances it could easily lose the game for us. So, even if you do do it we're still going to need trust lists and stuff to see which way to go. But, sure, if you and the other ghostbuster want to go that way then it's up to you both.

If you're Spengler unless you scanned murra5y last night then you must have at least one decent scan. Right? But if you are Spengler and you did scan murra5y last night then you're probably right. We are screwed.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Chubby

yeah that plan is kinda not what I want to do. and since I have the proton pack, i think i'll make the decision as to what keeps me the most safe.

Except, you know, if the "other" ghostbuster doesn't go along with you then your plan doesn't get you anywhere. So we still have to vote and stuff in case he doesn't go your route.

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

So you think it's better to take that chance AND remove your protection for the night. And it means that you can't do it again if the baddies actually get to equality. I don't think it's going to magically win the game for us but in the circumstances it could easily lose the game for us. So, even if you do do it we're still going to need trust lists and stuff to see which way to go. But, sure, if you and the other ghostbuster want to go that way then it's up to you both.

If you're Spengler unless you scanned murra5y last night then you must have at least one decent scan. Right? But if you are Spengler and you did scan murra5y last night then you're probably right. We are screwed.

It may or may not remove my protection for tonight. It's a risk i'm willing to take considering how bad I think our situation is.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Will Pass tie it up, put it away, or simply wander off in a daze yet again??

Well, you know which one of these happened -- I got called away. I'm sorry if this is frustrating to everyone!

[mauchow]

Well we do have two days to think on it. I don't know if we should jump right into crossing. We can get vote history still and if you decide to cross then cross.

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Except, you know, if the "other" ghostbuster doesn't go along with you then your plan doesn't get you anywhere. So we still have to vote and stuff in case he doesn't go your route.

I agree.

[Narcizo]

OK so let's try and think about this logically. Two ghostbusters reveal but, worse case scenario, they don't have anyone else to clear. We all vote with the ghostbusters but hold a dummy vote for voting records and whatnot. I think Chubby has made it pretty clear that he's Spengler.

If we're 5-1-3 then there's slightly less than 50% chance that we hit a wolf, slightly less than 50% chance we hit a villager. Presuming that the two ghostbusters pick at random. Hopefully they will be able to make some deductions that increase the chance of getting a wolf.

If we hit a villager then I think it's pretty certain that the wolves are going to win.


If we hit a wolf then the wolves are 5-1-2.

They can take a shot at Spengler. If it bounces then we will still be able to cross the streams and will have another scan to work with. 5-1-2 tomorrow with another scan to work with. Looks good for the village.

Kill him and the situation is 4-1-2 without any more scans or the ability to cross the streams. We follow Venkman tomorrow but things aren't looking so hot for the village.

They might take the shot at Venkman removing his ability to cross the streams tomorrow.
Bounce and we can't cross the streams and we have another scan result and are 5-1-2. Again looking good for team village.
Kill him and we can't cross the streams but we have another scan result and are 4-1-2, and the seer still has his protection.

Or they might go for a vanilla. 4-1-2 and the ghostbusters can still cross the streams, and we have a scan result to help us tomorrow.
They might hit the convertee which would be 4-1-3 and then you would be able to cross the streams tomorrow and would have a scan result tomorrow.

Lynch Peck and it's 5-3. Up to the wolves if they want to take the certain kill of a vanilla and maybe get a conversion or if they want to take a pop at a ghostbuster.

To be honest I'm not sure which way is best. Chubby may be right after all. But if you do cross the streams you have to think that the other ghostbuster is going to be revealed so it shouldn't hurt for them to at least say that they're a ghostbuster.

[Narcizo]

Or there's no Peck and the situation could be a deal rosier for us, if it's 6-3. Or darker if it means we're currently 5-4. I know I said I thought Autumn was Peck but I'm not so sure about that, as it appears I was wrong about who I thought was Spengler.

[Narcizo]

OK. Targeting murra5y. Why?

1) pretty clear he was a vanilla. The wolves are hoping to get a conversion.
2) want to get Katy lynched if she's a villager. If two known villagers were on her then it looks like the wolves might have been stacking their votes on Zinto to save her.
3) If Katy is a baddy then you want to keep the pool of people who voted Zinto as large as possible to let some wolves hide out there.

So that's not a fat lot of help.

[Narcizo]

There are too many intangibles about the result of crossing the streams, whether Pecks in the game, whether we'd know if a convertee had been lynched or brutaled to make much of a decent decision based on the maths. Tough call for the other ghostbuster. Guess it's a gut call for them.

If Chubby isn't Spengler and Spengler has any sort of useful result to give then I think he should spill.

[fontisian]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

If Chubby isn't Spengler and Spengler has any sort of useful result to give then I think he should spill.

Agreed.

Crossing the streams in really risky. I'd prefer to narrow down the possible wolves first.

[Narcizo]

Ooookay. So you're not claiming to be Spengler then fontisian? Meh! I suck at role-spotting. I've had you down as the seer for a couple of days now.

[fontisian]

Really? You got that from my vote on hoops then?
Nah, I'm not Spengler.