WW 103? - 42 Attempts (Game Over - Conspirators Win)

[Lathum]

I have no idea why we are being lynched. The boxing kind of fucked shit up, sorry to EF for throwing off the works.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Danny

Day 5

Autumn 5 - Danny (979), Abe Sargent (1020), The Jackal (1078), Schmidty (1159), Chief Rum
saldana 4 - PurdueBrad (1115), KWhit (1142), J23 (1145), Autumn (1157)
KWhit 1 - saldana (1131)

Saldana put a vote on me pretty early in the day on Day 5. Autumn and Saldana are both wolves at this point. Why would Saldana bring another wolf into the voting? That makes no sense.

I am a villager.

[The Jackal]

To buy trust later?

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

To buy trust later?

Sure, that's possible. But the more likely reason is that he was voting for a non-wolf who seemed to have suspicion on him. It seems very obvious to me that he purposely avoided to vote for Autumn and was trying to move the lynch to someone other than himself or Autumn. But of course, it was obvious to me because I know I'm a villager and you guys don't.

[KWhit]

If I am duked today and you guys see that I am a villager (which you will), I wanted to point this out before I'm gone.

Do not let Chief Rum's last second switch to Autumn give you guys any ideas about his allegiance. Everyone seemed to automatically assume that meant he had to be good. Not so fast, my friends.

Autumn and Saldana/Lathum are both wolves. CR may be a wolf who switched his vote for one of these reasons:

1) To gain some favor from the villagers. When he did that and we all saw that it resulted in a lynch, everyone was thrilled with the result, and all of a sudden, CR was basically "cleared." If he is a wolf, he would have known that a wolf was going down that day. Might as well get some benefit out of it.

2) To ensure that a last minute unvote wouldn't create a tie and a wolf double-lynch. Right up until the very last second the vote was 5-4 Saldana. If someone whose vote was on Saldana was paying attention and had a gut feeling that they were both wolves, he could have unvoted Saldana and made it a 4-4 tie. It's possible CR saw this and wanted to make sure at least one wolf was saved.

I have stated the reasons why I'm suspicious of CR (disregard the argument stuff, as that is not applicable to my reasoning) but to reiterate, mainly it's because on day one he received 5 votes - all from villagers. On day 2 he received 6 votes - 4 from villagers and 2 from uncleareds. I just think that it is odd that no wolf has been on him at all. And now that we know Lathdana is a wolf, we know that he never voted for CR either. It just really looks like the wolves were actively avoiding voting for him those first 2 days when he was getting so much heat.

And now that we know his big Day 5 last second vote-switch was meaningless, DO NOT fall into the trap of giving him a ton of credit for the switch. He should be looked at as closely as anyone. Now, having said all of that, he was on Saldana pretty early for the day 5 vote when he could have gone after me. So I am torn, and wasn't going to post this, because I don't know if I think he's a villager or a wolf.

But I did post it because of Danny's earlier posts suggesting he should duke-lynch me tonight (which is a bad idea), and wanted to remind everyone not to give too much credit to CR because when he made his switch the people on the block were both wolves.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by KWhit

If I am duked today and you guys see that I am a villager (which you will), I wanted to point this out before I'm gone.

Do not let Chief Rum's last second switch to Autumn give you guys any ideas about his allegiance. Everyone seemed to automatically assume that meant he had to be good. Not so fast, my friends.

Autumn and Saldana/Lathum are both wolves. CR may be a wolf who switched his vote for one of these reasons:

1) To gain some favor from the villagers. When he did that and we all saw that it resulted in a lynch, everyone was thrilled with the result, and all of a sudden, CR was basically "cleared." If he is a wolf, he would have known that a wolf was going down that day. Might as well get some benefit out of it.

2) To ensure that a last minute unvote wouldn't create a tie and a wolf double-lynch. Right up until the very last second the vote was 5-4 Saldana. If someone whose vote was on Saldana was paying attention and had a gut feeling that they were both wolves, he could have unvoted Saldana and made it a 4-4 tie. It's possible CR saw this and wanted to make sure at least one wolf was saved.

I have stated the reasons why I'm suspicious of CR (disregard the argument stuff, as that is not applicable to my reasoning) but to reiterate, mainly it's because on day one he received 5 votes - all from villagers. On day 2 he received 6 votes - 4 from villagers and 2 from uncleareds. I just think that it is odd that no wolf has been on him at all. And now that we know Lathdana is a wolf, we know that he never voted for CR either. It just really looks like the wolves were actively avoiding voting for him those first 2 days when he was getting so much heat.

And now that we know his big Day 5 last second vote-switch was meaningless, DO NOT fall into the trap of giving him a ton of credit for the switch. He should be looked at as closely as anyone. Now, having said all of that, he was on Saldana pretty early for the day 5 vote when he could have gone after me. So I am torn, and wasn't going to post this, because I don't know if I think he's a villager or a wolf.

But I did post it because of Danny's earlier posts suggesting he should duke-lynch me tonight (which is a bad idea), and wanted to remind everyone not to give too much credit to CR because when he made his switch the people on the block were both wolves.

Hmm, I can't really argue against this actually. It's all possible. It gives me far too much credit, but it's certainly possible. In fact, it makes me disappointed in myself, because you're right, I could just unvoted saldana, and we would have gotten both. But at the time, I wasn't sure about saldana's allegiance.

I leave judgment of me to the others here, but I would argue again that going with the final vote count completely ignores how the votes happened, particularly Day One, which I have brought up a time or two. I would hope I have earned enough trust to at least get a pass until we knock off one or two more of the more suspicious.

Here's what I find interesting--and I full admit it could be just a ploy by Lathum to throw us: Lathum claims to have blown up Berlin. Elser blew up Berlin.

Elser had no ability to blow up a bomb at that meeting. In fact, his bomb was already blown. In all likelihood, Lathum's just doing the head game thing, and he's Stauffenberg. But if he's not lying, there is only one possible option left to be Stauffenberg.

[Danny]

Kwhit, I do have in the back of my mind the thing about CR as well. However for once in my life I actually have a good read on him (my gut is almost always suspicious of CR). Also, with the cunning dead, I think there is a reasonable chance CR was scanned by Telle. She voted him day 2 I believe and then day 3 decided to go with his vote on someone else. Either she had a change of heart, or she scanned him.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Danny

Kwhit, I do have in the back of my mind the thing about CR as well. However for once in my life I actually have a good read on him (my gut is almost always suspicious of CR). Also, with the cunning dead, I think there is a reasonable chance CR was scanned by Telle. She voted him day 2 I believe and then day 3 decided to go with his vote on someone else. Either she had a change of heart, or she scanned him.

On this though, I really wish she had left some sort of trail or hints, getting nothing from the seer really hurt

[Danny]

Oh and I am home early today since I finished everything early.

[Chief Rum]

Danny, any thoughts on Lathum claiming to be Elser?

[Danny]

My first thought is it could be a ploy to take heat off of Kwhit as the 3rd or final wolf. Then again, maybe it is a ploy to make us think it is a ploy

[Danny]

Added with Saldana being bad.

Day 1

KWhit 2 - Darth Vilus (80), PurdueBrad (105)
Lathum 1 - DaddyTorgo (96)
Darth Vilus 2 - Autumn (91), Telle (219)
Chief Rum 5 - ntndeacon (92), bulletsponge (110), GldenEagle (213), LoneStarGirl (221), Danny (223)
DaddyTorgo 7 - Lathum (102), J23 (106), hoopsguy (113), Abe Sargent (125), Scmidty (153), The Jackal (163), Chief Rum (230)
LoneStarGirl

Day 2

Darth Vilus 8 - PurdueBad (403), Autumn (408), KWhit (436), ntndeacon (440), JAG (452), Chief Rum (467), Abe Sargent (476), J23 (539)
ntndeacon 1 - Lathum (432)
Chief Rum 6 - Darth Vilus (421), bulletsponge (425), Telle (438), Danny (447), The Jackal (479), Schmidty (481)

Day 3

bulletsponge 7 - Danny (618), Schmidty (655), Telle (671), PurdueBrad (687), ntndeacon (698), Lathum (733), Abe Sargent (738)
The Jackal 4 - J23 (627), Chief Rum (664), bulletsponge (682), Autumn (723)
ntndeacon 3 - KWhit (654), The Jackal (657), JAG (690)

Day 4

ntndeacon 5 - Danny (791), The Jackal (808), PurdueBrad (894), saldana (902), Schmidty (917)
The Jackal 4 - Chief Rum (918), Telle (926), J23 (928), ntndeacon (939)

Day 5

Autumn 5 - Danny (979), Abe Sargent (1020), The Jackal (1078), Schmidty (1159), Chief Rum
saldana 4 - PurdueBrad (1115), KWhit (1142), J23 (1145), Autumn (1157)
KWhit 1 - saldana (1131)

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Telle

But we still don't know for sure if CR is a villager or a wolf, so that analysis is flawed.

I'm going to follow Chief Rum with the second candidate. I'm just really not liking this run on ntn.

vote The Jackal

Just to have it out there, this is the post by Telle about CR the day after she voted him. Not really sure what to make of this regarding the possibility she scanned him.

[Danny]

I read through all of Telle's posts before she died and there was nothing there regarding hints about anyone. She played very tight and had very few posts, so there's no help there.

[EagleFan]

Leaving the office now, will run the results when I get home (if I counted the nightfall votes correctly). If we're not at nightfall I will wait for eithe final vote(s) or for the deadline.

[Danny]

Just for the record, I have not submitted nightfall yet.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

I'm going to go out a new direction if we're looking beyond the Autumn vote. I'm amazed that Lath-dana (the world's greatest wolf couple) has failed to get much suspicion this game so I'm willing to look there.

vote to lynch Lath-Dana

PurdueBrad along with an early vote on Autumn to help establish him as the first candidate WAS the first person to put Saldana as the second lynch candidate. This was before J23 revealed as Maurice and I have to believe there is no way PB basically sets a wolf wolf showdown here.

Now that we know Lathum is bad, I think PB is almost certainly a villager.

[Danny]

Alright

Vote Nightfall

[EagleFan]

deadline

[Danny]

Fingers crossed!

[Danny]

I went with my gut here, so we'll see.

[Danny]

Sorry Henry, I duked it to you

[EagleFan]

After a day that almost seemed to last three days as everyone is still in mourning over the loss of their leader. Well, almost everyone.

You notice that Lath-dana does ot seem to be mourning "as much" as everyone else. This must mean one thing, this must mean that he is a split personality conspirator.

You call for the firing squad and drag Lathum into range. He struggles for a bit but then smiles. I have done my job, I have helped remove a great evil.

Ready!!!!

Aim!!!!

Wait!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Declares Himmler.

I have one more for you!

He pulls KWhit from the crowd. You have had too much opportunity. You must be part of the conspiracy as well. WE END THIS TODAY!!!!

KWhit is subdued.

Ready!!!!!!!

Aim!!!!!!!

Fire!!!!!!!


Both drop. You search them and find that the one known to you as Lathum, Lath-dana, saldana... is actually Johann Georg Elser. You have removed another conspirator. You are closer to victory.

Then all eyes turn towards KWhit. Is this it? Did we end it?

No, he is a loyal Nazi.

This news concerns you. Hw many more chances are left?

Lost in the midst of this confusion is that you have named Himmler as your new leader.

[Danny]

Damn!

[Danny]

I debated between him and Jackal, looks like I picked wrong. I will be dead in minute, I would probably go Jackal as the most likely to be the last wolf.

[Danny]

Sorry Kwhit, I took the duking off you, but put it back on at the last minute. It was a tough decision

[Chief Rum]

It was worth a shot, Danny. Lathum is indeed Elser, so we had nothing to go one except to figure KWhit has to be Stauffenberg. Apparently, Stauffenberg did not need to be in attendance for the bomb to go off.

But at least we did get Lathum.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

I debated between him and Jackal, looks like I picked wrong. I will be dead in minute, I would probably go Jackal as the most likely to be the last wolf.

I am leaning toward The Jackal, too, but I'm going to need to take a close look at things before deciding. I lean to PB being good, too, and you know how I have felt about the Jackal. But I have been trying to make sense of the Jackal vote on Day Four (or Three, whichever it was, the one where Autumn put The Jackal in danger).

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I am leaning toward The Jackal, too, but I'm going to need to take a close look at things before deciding. I lean to PB being good, too, and you know how I have felt about the Jackal. But I have been trying to make sense of the Jackal vote on Day Four (or Three, whichever it was, the one where Autumn put The Jackal in danger).

He was in danger, but there were two other candidates and he could have switched if needed. Also on that day, Jackal is the only person left alive with a vote on Ntn, I am thinking in all likelihood a wolf would have had a vote there. Plus with Jackal's vote there he could have switched it to Bullet if he was in more danger after the Autumn vote.

[EagleFan]

After a rough day you annoint immler as your leader with a small ceremony. As he accepts the title he gives a short speach about how he will end this war victoriously due to the German superiority.

As he wraps up his speach you hear a shot echoing out. Himmler slumps to the ground. He has been killed by an assassins bullet.

You look around but cannot see who fired the fateful shot. You see a theater, a warehouse and a grassy knoll...

Danny was Heinrich Himmler.

[Danny]

Good luck guys! Sorry my dukings did not work out

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

Good luck guys! Sorry my dukings did not work out

It's all right, Danny, we'll get this set for ya.

[The Jackal]

Damn. I almost wished you had picked me, Danny, though you probably would've gone with KWhit the next day. Whoever the last wolf is is hiding fairly well.

[Schmidty]

Well, that sucks. Although we did get Elser.

I'm willing to look at everyone at this point, because I don't know where to go at this point.

[PurdueBrad]

So here we stand, Jackal, Schmidty, PB, and CR.

Danny, it was worth a shot, heroic and likely game-winning if it worked.

[The Jackal]

So if we're wrong today, game over?

[The Jackal]

I'm going to be deciding between CR and Schmidty, I guess.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I'm going to be deciding between CR and Schmidty, I guess.

Well, I don't really get why I would be on the block at all, but it's cool.

I'll be deciding between you and PB. I just don't think CR is a wolf. I really don't think PB is either. I don't really know about you. To be honest, I don't know who to vote for.

[The Jackal]

I don't really know who to vote for either. I feel like I'm the leading candidate just because Danny was deciding between me and KWhit, but if we lynch me we lose. Tough choice, going to take some villagers making a good call.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Danny

I will do more thorough analysis over the weekend, but at this point CR, Schmidty and I have to be at the top of the trust list. I'd say Saldana would be above the others (Kwhit, Jackal) as well

Based on this, I will start things off

vote Jackal

[Abe Sargent]

Bump. NM, I thought 10 was deadline. I leave thuis here so ya'lls can laugh at me

[Chief Rum]

I can be talked out of this, I suppose, and I still plan to go over the voting records again and look at some things.

But in the end, I have always felt The Jackal was a wolf. I don't get a wolf vibe from Schmidty, and he was part of the group that lynched Autumn.

PB, I think introducing saldana in the mix the other day with Autumn in the lead is carrying a lot of weight with me. And like Schmidty, PB hasn't struck me as wolfy.

It really comes down to The Jackal for me. Assuming I don't find something really telling in my look back at the votes, The Jackal is the one who gets the vote, and if either of the other two is the actual wolf, well, kudos to them.

VOTE THE JACKAL

[The Jackal]

I'm going to go with what KWhit posted shortly before his untimely death. I think the wolf is hiding in Schmidty or CR, and CR placing that final vote to gain trust makes a lot of sense.

VOTE CR

If you guys end up lynching me, well, kudos to that wolf. And annoyance at myself for having a crappy voting record and general feel to this game.

[The Jackal]

If you really are a villager, CR, definitely take a look at the other two before deciding with finality. I'll try to find some things tomorrow that could point to any of you, but I doubt I'll turn up much, we'll see.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I'm going to go with what KWhit posted shortly before his untimely death. I think the wolf is hiding in Schmidty or CR, and CR placing that final vote to gain trust makes a lot of sense.

VOTE CR

If you guys end up lynching me, well, kudos to that wolf. And annoyance at myself for having a crappy voting record and general feel to this game.

One of the things I find really curious about you right now, Jackal, is that you have chosen to focus on Schmidty and me. It seems odd. I don't think there has been much questioning that you and PB are the probable top candidates. So I find it curious you're just giving him a pass.

[The Jackal]

I was led to believe PB was held in high standings by most because of something that happened in the last day. I've been a little out of touch the past few days, I'll do my best to get up to speed. I'm not throwing out PB. Even more:

unvote CR

I'll explore tomorrow.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

Day 1

KWhit 2 - Darth Vilus (80), PurdueBrad (105)
Lathum 1 - DaddyTorgo (96)
Darth Vilus 2 - Autumn (91), Telle (219)
Chief Rum 5 - ntndeacon (92), bulletsponge (110), GldenEagle (213), LoneStarGirl (221), Danny (223)
DaddyTorgo 7 - Lathum (102), J23 (106), hoopsguy (113), Abe Sargent (125), Scmidty (153), The Jackal (163), Chief Rum (230)
LoneStarGirl

Day 2

Darth Vilus 8 - PurdueBad (403), Autumn (408), KWhit (436), ntndeacon (440), JAG (452), Chief Rum (467), Abe Sargent (476), J23 (539)
ntndeacon 1 - Lathum (432)
Chief Rum 6 - Darth Vilus (421), bulletsponge (425), Telle (438), Danny (447), The Jackal (479), Schmidty (481)

Day 3

bulletsponge 7 - Danny (618), Schmidty (655), Telle (671), PurdueBrad (687), ntndeacon (698), Lathum (733), Abe Sargent (738)
The Jackal 4 - J23 (627), Chief Rum (664), bulletsponge (682), Autumn (723)
ntndeacon 3 - KWhit (654), The Jackal (657), JAG (690)

Day 4

ntndeacon 5 - Danny (791), The Jackal (808), PurdueBrad (894), saldana (902), Schmidty (917)
The Jackal 4 - Chief Rum (918), Telle (926), J23 (928), ntndeacon (939)

Day 5

Autumn 5 - Danny (979), Abe Sargent (1020), The Jackal (1078), Schmidty (1159), Chief Rum
saldana 4 - PurdueBrad (1115), KWhit (1142), J23 (1145), Autumn (1157)
KWhit 1 - saldana (1131)

A couple things stood out a little to me when looking at these votes.

One, for those who suspect me still, on Day 2, Lathum was putting in a vote for the day (I remember from my analysis, it is post #432), and the two top votegetters were myself and Darth at two apiece. If I were a fellow wolf and Lathum knew he wouldn't be back before deadline (he said he wouldn't be and he wasn't), he would have put the vote on the top villager candidate, which would be DV. Instead, he put in on ntn. Seems rather risky for a wolf to leave his comrade hanging like that.

Second, Danny is right, there was actually not much risk in Day Four for the Jackal when Autumn put his vote in. Sure, it made it 5-4 bulletsponge over The Jackal, but The Jackal himself was on a third candidate and would presumeably switch. Plus, Lathum hadn't voted yet (he would later vote for bullet; The Jackal never had to move his vote).

Third, saldana avoided The Jackal in the ntndeacon-Jackal showdown in Day Four. Autumn was out of commission, so no telling on his vote. The Jackal was on ntndeacon for self-reservation, of course.

I am still looking things over but I am feeling better about my Jackal vote.

[The Jackal]

Excluding the day 5 vote, CR and PB have been on known villagers every day (only taking into account that I know I'm a villager, for CR's vote on me), whereas Schmidty has been on a known one everyday except when he voted CR.

If I'm looking at what a wolf would do on day 5 in a wolf vs wolf, hm. PB has the early vote on saldana, why, to not have it be a runaway? I don't have time to go find reasoning right now, if you see this before I wake up feel free to answer, PB. Then there's Schmidty and CR's votes putting the nail in Autumn's coffin. But they were choosing between two wolves, so while at least one of you is obviously good, the other's could've easily been a late hidden wolf vote.

[The Jackal]

My hunt for NTN was certainly off, he wasn't a wolf. At least he didn't get converted, but that definitely hurts my vote recap. Both Schmidty and I have voted CR on separate ocassions, and besides CR's vote on me, those are the only unknown votes we have at this point, correct?

I'm sorta rambling now so I'll go to bed.

[The Jackal]

If you're a villager, PB, don't just go off the fact that Danny was choosing between me and KWhit. Fact is he was wrong twice this game with his duke, so it's not like this was an AlanT gut sort of thing. I'm just as good a candidate as any of you, and just because I've been more in the running than any (except maybe CR - the reason we stopped looking at him was because we thought he'd be scanned, but the scan was never revealed if it happened, let me bring up once more) shouldn't lend me to be the obvious choice.

So I wasn't done.. now I am!