10-16-2018, 12:35 PM | #13351 | |
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I agree. I will note, though, that a lot of Dems I know are frustrated by President Obama having governed as a moderate (and almost obsessed with bi-partisan compromise) to still have the GOP successfully portray him as a far-leftist. There's a sense that if everything a Democrat does is simply going to be seen as far left, then why not actually govern from the far left? I don't think that its enough to win someone the nomination, though. |
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10-16-2018, 01:03 PM | #13352 |
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In general, the far-left hasn't shown an ability to appeal to the non-white parts of the party. That was(is?) certainly Bernie's biggest problem.
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10-16-2018, 02:13 PM | #13353 | ||
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Warren does seem to be laying the groundwork for a 2020 run, and will have a built in base amongst the liberal wing (at least if Bernie doesn't run). I think her shortcomings will quickly become apparent when nationally campaigning, but if it's a very crowded field she might be able to win enough early states. |
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10-16-2018, 02:52 PM | #13354 | |
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Continues to grow for whom? Rich? I am not sure things have improved that much for those rust belt people with no college education. Trump promised them to get their glory days jobs and pay back, I'm positive that has not happened. Combine that with the continue increase in healthcare costs and drug use, I feel he can take advantage of that voting block only once. |
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10-16-2018, 03:03 PM | #13355 |
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I've said it before and I'll say it again. You don't want your ideologues to be your party's candidate.
It fires up the base, sure, but you run the risk of alienating the middle. There's your CW. The part nobody ever thinks about? You take your ideologue out of the Senate where they can influence legislation and judicial appointments (see: McConnell, Mitch) for a quick 4-8 year endorphin rush in the White House. If you control the Senate and the White House, anybody the President sends is going to be someone who's going to pass muster with the firebrands, even if the President isn't a firebrand, themselves. They're going to sign the legislation you send them. Etc. If Republicans control the White House and the Senate, it doesn't matter if the President is ultra-conservative or not - he's going to sign the legislation that comes out of Congress in most cases, and his judicial picks are going to be conservatives much more often than not. If Democrats control the White House and the Senate, it doesn't matter if the President is ultra-liberal or not. She's going to sign the legislation that comes out of Congress in most cases, and her judicial picks are going to be liberals much more often than not. What you want out of a Presidential candidate is somebody who's telegenic, empathetic, and (well, until two years ago) articulate. Someone who looks "Presidential," makes voters feel like their concerns are understood, and able expound their message in a way that widens the party's tent. Your ideologues aren't as bound by the 'middle' unless they're a Senator from a swing state, so they can get away with messaging to the base in most cases, and once in the Senate, they're able to shape legislation in an ideological way. Trump ran for President like a red-state Senator, which should have been a recipe for defeat. I will never understand how a strategy of "narrow the base" got him elected, but I suspect it's also probably not something that can be replicated on a regular basis. |
10-16-2018, 03:05 PM | #13356 | |
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It's a nice thought. The reality is that that voting bloc gets taken advantage of over and over and over. Because they value process over outcome, and because they've been conditioned to believe that "conservatism cannot fail, it can only be failed." So if Trump says what they perceive to be the "right" things, but they don't get the outcome they want, it's not that he was wrong - it's that the Democrats somehow sabotaged everything or a RINO stabbed them in the back or whatever. And then they'll go vote for Trump again. |
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10-16-2018, 03:10 PM | #13357 | |
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At what point do they turn on him, because most of them are hard core supports and fall into the "other" category I listed. I realize it is a generalization, and perhaps an unfair one, but a lot of those uneducated people in the rust belt are also backwards as fuck, and like being able to hate them brown people. The uneducated ones are also the easiest to strike fear in to that hey are losing their country. Trump will campaign to them that they are losing their country to the mexicans and that the Dems will open the boarders and all their daughters all be raped and sold into the sex trade, and they will lap it up. My Dad is not rich. He is like a lot of boomers. Worked hard, made decent money, and invested well. HE wants to see that continue and thinks Trump will make that happen. Environment, gay rights, civil rights, free speech, etc...be damned. |
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10-16-2018, 03:34 PM | #13358 | ||
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Its not all bad. The article stated a couple times it wasn't all because of Trump. However, its been 2 years now and Trump will get credit in 2020 if it keeps up. On healthcare, fair or not, Trump & GOP will easily be able to blame that on Obama. re: drug use, don't think that's a big issue for the GOP. Factor in the other Trump pros - SCOTUS, trade war with China (that is going well right now), de-escalation with NK (for now at least), revision of NAFTA and the optics of Mexico & Canada acquiescing to US demands, stock market doing well, the growth of nationalists support in many other countries (e.g. he's not alone), NRA still going strong, his ability to help GOP win elections (or at least not lose them), his strong support for Israel, his strong stance on illegal and non-desirable immigration (his definition of course), GOP likely retaining the Senate etc. ... I'm sure I missed several more. Combine that with Dem cons - (I'll let someone else list them) It's going to come down to (1) the economy or how people think they feel about the economy (2) who the Dems can put up (3) does Trump have a major screwup (e.g. Mueller smoking gun, trade war going south etc.) and I'll add a (4) can the Democrat base get out the vote and increase their % from 2016. https://www.usnews.com/news/economy/...ump-than-obama Quote:
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10-16-2018, 04:25 PM | #13359 | |
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I just want to pick this out. Poll after poll after poll shows the opposite.
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10-16-2018, 05:28 PM | #13360 |
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J.F.C.
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10-16-2018, 05:45 PM | #13361 |
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10-16-2018, 06:10 PM | #13362 | |
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Don't tell farm country that the trade war is going well. It's not a huge voting block and I don't see somebody like Kansas or Iowa flipping because of it. But in some of the battleground 2016 states with bigger ag economies like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, it could potentially be enough to move the needle the other way. Only because the needle doesn't have to move far in those states. Hundreds of dairy farms have already shut down in Wisconsin this year. His supposed victory over Canada in the NAFTA renegotiation only brought things back to the way they were in 2016 and gave us only a fraction of a percent increase in Canadian market access. He liked to portray it as a big win for dairy farmers but to anybody that understands the details, it's a big nothing burger. |
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10-16-2018, 06:14 PM | #13363 | |
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My point is, between higher democratic turnout and resignation that trump can’t make things great again (due to Dems, media of McConnell, etc) I think his 2016 108k marginm is essentially gone. (Ugh, lungs just said this better...) Last edited by AENeuman : 10-16-2018 at 06:18 PM. |
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10-16-2018, 06:16 PM | #13364 |
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Just saw Julian Castro is thinking about challenging Trump. Other than Republicans probably getting their base believing that he is the spawn of Fidel, this is probably the first name that's intrigued me other than the list of geriatrics being floated about.
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10-16-2018, 06:16 PM | #13365 | |
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Are you speaking for yourself or the specific regions and voters I was referring to? |
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10-16-2018, 06:28 PM | #13366 |
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10-16-2018, 06:49 PM | #13367 | |
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I seem to be wearing the wrong glasses because I am unable to read between the lines as well as you. Higher Employment does not equal promise fulfilled. Lower healthcare costs, high standard of living and job security is the good old days. |
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10-16-2018, 07:40 PM | #13368 | |
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The article provides data points that "Trump's economy" has helped Trump voters including rust belt and non-college educated. "Promised fulfilled" is quite an expectation for only 2 years into the administration, but I think his voters will see it is trending that way and that is good for them. |
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10-16-2018, 08:03 PM | #13369 |
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Who has more Indian blood. Elizabeth Warren or chief Running Zack?
Also I'm really surprised that Trump hasn't talked about how Nikki Haley is so much more Indian then Elizabeth Warren |
10-16-2018, 08:26 PM | #13370 |
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I don't think the economy is as big a factor as people really say. It's used as a convenient cover instead of just saying you don't like minorities and the white nationalist sounds cool to you. Or that you have some major issues with women in your life.
In the end, Trump won because we have a weird undemocratic way of choosing a President. Hillary was an uninspiring candidate with decades of baggage, but she ended up being the more popular candidate. |
10-16-2018, 08:43 PM | #13371 | |
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Democratic republic =/= democracy. And if you don't think low middle class folks who co siedr themselves sophisticated financially don't see a surging 401k as a major win, you are disconnected. |
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10-16-2018, 08:52 PM | #13372 | |
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The number of low-middle class people that put much money into a 401k is pretty small. And 401Ks were at record levels heading into the 2016 election and it conveniently wasn't a talking point. Last edited by Atocep : 10-16-2018 at 08:52 PM. |
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10-16-2018, 08:53 PM | #13373 |
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The bottom 90% own @15% of stocks. There can't be many low middle class families with surging 401ks.
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10-16-2018, 08:55 PM | #13374 | |
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Good example of media bias. Saying he has “helped” his voters is a vague term, probably not meant for those voters, but more as a nice sound bite. Helped what? Find them a job? Ok, was that really their problem? Lowering healthcare, nope. Returning to good old days manufacturing jobs, nope. Trump won his key states because of non college educated women turned out for him, in an above average way. I think that group is very affected by healthcare costs and the opioid epidemic but probably have their pick a of shitty retail job. |
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10-16-2018, 08:56 PM | #13375 | |
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Here's one from last year. Quote:
There are others that show the same thing. Basically, when one party is in power and promises to fix something, they get the credit or the blame. The GOP runs everything, they said they'll fix healthcare, so anything that happens there is going to fall on the GOP.
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10-16-2018, 09:03 PM | #13376 | ||
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I have to agree but also believe the low-middle class folks that have the discipline to contribute to a 401k probably do appreciate seeing their money grow. Dow in 2017 was +24%, most will notice that bump. 2018 started out great but we are now at +3-5% I think. Not convinced the 401k balance is what low-middle think about re: good economy. Its probably more on job opportunities, job security and a 3-4% increase every year. https://money.usnews.com/money/retir...ance-stacks-up Quote:
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10-16-2018, 09:11 PM | #13377 | ||
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Interesting. The below Kaiser research is pretty recent and shows Trump/GOP won't get the blame (or that much). It may just be how the question is worded. https://www.advisory.com/daily-brief...l-health-costs Quote:
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10-16-2018, 09:15 PM | #13378 |
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Of course this isn't hard data, just anecdotal.
I listened to a couple guys recently talking about their 401k balances. These are hourly construction guys. Not spring chickens late 40s early 50s guys. The conversation was about how ones 401k balance had gone up from 10k to 15k since Trump took office. Now i dont know if his numbers are even real...but they were both praising the growth. If there are a large sample of these people...collectively they are a small % of the total market yet they see personal gain. |
10-16-2018, 09:24 PM | #13379 | |
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I was honestly going to type something very similar. All the blue collar workers in fly over states whose 401K has gone up from 20K to 27K are going to praise Trump. In their minds the POTUS is giving them free money. |
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10-16-2018, 09:26 PM | #13380 | ||
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The article is one data point so take it for what its worth. But it provides evidence of better "mining, logging" and "manufacturing" under Trump. Those statistics in the article are not "vague". Quote:
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10-16-2018, 09:28 PM | #13381 |
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The Dems are like a seriously distracted ADHD kid. They can't formulate any kind of sound strategy that controlls the narrative. They could pick from any number of topics and just pound it home over and over again, and forget that anything else is happening until people are sick of it, then move to something else once the first is totally ingrained. Instead, they try and hit every topic a little at a time and run around like Chicken Little with no focus and no discipline to stick to anything .
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10-16-2018, 09:36 PM | #13382 |
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That's true at a national level, and God knows I've been pounding the party on it's lack of branding, but at a local level it's been healthcare and Social Security. Just look at how many GOPers are running to say they will protect the basics of the ACA. They're doing that because the Dems are killing them on the issue in race after race.
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10-16-2018, 09:37 PM | #13383 |
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non - dola
the perfect example today. Instead of hitting the president on his complete acceptance of SA's total denial in the journalist case, they focus on a goddamned umbrella. It's not like it was really raining either. Maybe a sprinkle at best. Why?
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He's just like if Snow White was competitive, horny, and capable of beating the shit out of anyone that called her Pops. Like Steam? Join the FOFC Steam group here: http://steamcommunity.com/groups/FOFConSteam Last edited by PilotMan : 10-16-2018 at 09:38 PM. |
10-16-2018, 09:41 PM | #13384 | |
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Yes, a great explanation. TBF Trump provides such a "target rich" environment but the Dems should do a better job on picking and focusing. |
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10-16-2018, 09:56 PM | #13385 | |
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It's not nothing, but that 5k will last them how many months once they're retired? Of course they'll need every if Medicare and Social Security are slashed.
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10-16-2018, 10:03 PM | #13386 | |
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I'm not disagreeing, but I'm telling you that's why the economy matters to those demographics and why it isn't a dog whistle as Rainmaker suggested. We agree it isn't a tremendous game changer for them, but for them the perception is it's huge |
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10-17-2018, 12:01 AM | #13387 | |||
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Quote:
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A rise from 20k to 27k in my 401k wouldn't make me change my actuarial timetable, but I'd still enjoy it. |
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10-17-2018, 12:31 AM | #13388 | |
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Market soared under Obama. They hated him. Wonder what the difference is. |
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10-17-2018, 12:32 AM | #13389 | ||||
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(I also don't think the opioid epidemic is a red state thing - meth was more red state, while opioids were more blue states, and certainly a huge issue in the blue part of the northeast I lived near.) Quote:
I also don't know if they will turn out for midterms (and hope not, though between the Kavanuagh hearings and Liz Warren bringing up dumb things for no reason I see where the Fox etc train will try to spur turnout), but I don't think there is nearly the resignation amongst 2016 Trump supporters you assume. Dems just need to nominate someone with a bit of charisma who engages people instead of talking down to them... Quote:
Why not Cory Booker? (Kamala Harris is not geriatric either, but she does seem more radical.) Last edited by BishopMVP : 10-17-2018 at 12:39 AM. |
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10-17-2018, 07:01 AM | #13390 | |
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First let me address the statistical fallacy. On 1/1/09 the Dow was at 9,034 He left at 19,762 (Which was also the highest point at any point in his tenure) a 10,700 point surge in 8 years. We are 2 weeks removed from a 26,828 peak. A 7,000 point jump in under 2 years. Second and I think its the bigger issue with the Democratic party right now. This is the second or third time you have implied if not directly tried to make it an exclusively race issue. You specifically, and many others, marginalize the opinions of any who oppose your view and simply discard them as ignorant racists too dumb to understand these big boy issues. Its the exact mistake Hillary made and what led to the election of a moron like Trump. Obama had a lot of issues, a lot of reasons to dislike him unrelated to the color of his skin. But go ahead and dismiss everyone who sits on your side of the aisle, just like the Democrat candidates. Dont bother to spend a minute understanding their motivation. Then shake your head next November and make up another boogie man, another strawman for why everyone screwed up again. Find another Russia to blame. Never learn from past mistakes just keep repeating. |
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10-17-2018, 07:15 AM | #13391 |
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Wonder how Trump would be perceived if he wasn't so abrasive?
There obviously is a sector of people who think he " tells it like it is!" that love it. But if he wasn't so crude and childish all the time and just stayed off Twitter I wonder if the perception from the middle and other side would be enough to make him win easily. I just don't understand why he feels the need to act like that and discredit all the positives that have happened under him. |
10-17-2018, 07:19 AM | #13392 | |
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I think that without the abrasiveness he wouldn't have cut through that crowded primary field. |
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10-17-2018, 07:54 AM | #13393 | |
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You're playing some games with the numbers. If you go from Obama's inauguration the Dow was under 8500. If you go from the low point, in early March of 2009 it was around 6600. You also can't ignore that the Dow is no longer at its historic peak.
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10-17-2018, 08:34 AM | #13394 | |
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If he didn't act like a spoiled child he would be far more tolerable. But we have a president that called a woman Horseface yesterday. That's just not acceptable.
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10-17-2018, 08:44 AM | #13395 | |
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And don't forget....
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The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'! Last edited by Ben E Lou : 10-17-2018 at 08:47 AM. |
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10-17-2018, 08:52 AM | #13396 |
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Dola...to be clear, it was reported, but at this point, Trump acting like a child is going to draw a collective yawn from most people. I can't stand the guy, but I can't bother to be outraged every time he reminds of who he is.
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10-17-2018, 08:54 AM | #13397 | |
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The way I look at it, is it possible that Castro's limited resume is an advantage rather than a disadvantage? Let's be real, the more time a candidate has spent in office, the more fodder there is for the opposition to latch on to. I'm not necessarily opposed to Booker or Harris but with a guy like Castro the best the Republicans have to muddy his name is his name itself. (A la Obama/Osama back in 2008) |
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10-17-2018, 09:15 AM | #13398 | |
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Yeah, I don't understand why the horseface comment got so much coverage. Yes, we already know he is an ass. The media shouldn't let stupid stuff like that distract us from other stuff that is actually important, like his tax evasion or helping the Saudis cover up a murder. Last edited by Kodos : 10-17-2018 at 09:16 AM. |
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10-17-2018, 09:40 AM | #13399 |
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The scope of fraud level activities by the trump organizations in the Times piece is staggering. It's far deeper, far bigger, and with incredible corroborating evidence, and yet here we are worried about who he called names, and whether Melania is standing under an umbrella when it's not really even raining. The narrative of his money, and his incredible bald faced lying has to be the sticking point.
The evangelical right actually believes that he might be a messenger from god that is the answer to their prayers after all these years. Like the sinner who rises above to fulfill a prophecy, this is how he is perceived in some circles in the bible belt, because of how he has filled the Courts and his willingness to give them exactly what they want.
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He's just like if Snow White was competitive, horny, and capable of beating the shit out of anyone that called her Pops. Like Steam? Join the FOFC Steam group here: http://steamcommunity.com/groups/FOFConSteam Last edited by PilotMan : 10-17-2018 at 09:40 AM. |
10-17-2018, 09:43 AM | #13400 | |
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I hope everyone was able to catch this special Fathom event! The Trump Prophecy - YouTube |
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