The Obama Presidency - 2008 & 2012

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Dutch

Fixed and yes, we need to make sure we never get there.

For the record - I didn't say I wanted to be there. Just said that those were a few examples of societies that actually went through actual government redistribution of wealth.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

For the record - I didn't say I wanted to be there. Just said that those were a few examples of societies that actually went through actual government redistribution of wealth.

I know. I have no doubt that you don't want to get there. What I want to know is who is going to stop the pendulum from swinging there?

[Marc Vaughan]

Out of interest if anyone knows more about the economic setup in Germany I'd be very interested in learning more about it - this is purely on the basis that its one of the strongest economies in the world in terms of trade balance, yet this obviously isn't because of cost of labour advantages ... anyone know more about things there (either sites to look at or books to read).

[JPhillips]

I heard a Marketplace story on Germany a few months back. The gist is that at least with large corporations the labor unions have guaranteed seats on the board of directors. The representatives of the workers have a tremendous sense of ownership and loyalty and are very willing to sacrifice when needed, but also take a far greater share of the profits than companies in the US would find acceptable.

I obviously didn't get a complete breakdown of the German corporate system, but I'd be a very strong advocate of workers on the board. If you want workers to car about the company they need to have a say in the operations. I'm all for a real partnership between owners and labor.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Marc Vaughan

Out of interest if anyone knows more about the economic setup in Germany I'd be very interested in learning more about it - this is purely on the basis that its one of the strongest economies in the world in terms of trade balance, yet this obviously isn't because of cost of labour advantages ... anyone know more about things there (either sites to look at or books to read).

I've read a few articles about it lately - in Bloomberg Business Week and The Economist - what are you looking to find out?

[Marc Vaughan]

I've read a few articles about it lately - in Bloomberg Business Week and The Economist - what are you looking to find out?

Just some general facts about the setup of their economy - what makes it competitive, what are the main exports; I'd also be interested in the tax rates that they have over there in comparison to other countries ...

(are those articles in current copies incidentally?)

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Marc Vaughan

Just some general facts about the setup of their economy - what makes it competitive, what are the main exports; I'd also be interested in the tax rates that they have over there in comparison to other countries ...

(are those articles in current copies incidentally?)

Fairly current copies - within the last month or so I'd say. I'll see if I can come up with some sort of summation if you want. A lot of talk about how their economy has kind of lucked into exporting exactly what other economies (china etc) have been looking for - a lot of specialization - for example they are the best at making the machines that enable production of high-quality solar cells, things like that. So they don't make the actual end-products, but they sell a lot to china etc. so enable them to make the end products themselves.

That and of course the automobiles, and the growth of Siemens.

[Marc Vaughan]

I'll have a look in Books a Million tomorrow (any excuse to go in, I need to get the second 'Witcher' book anyway ) and see if they're still in then, if not then a summation would be useful thanks.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Marc Vaughan

I'll have a look in Books a Million tomorrow (any excuse to go in, I need to get the second 'Witcher' book anyway ) and see if they're still in then, if not then a summation would be useful thanks.

sure thing.

[Dutch]

BBC News - Why do the German and UK economies differ sharply?

Marc, check this out, probably right up your alley.

[Marc Vaughan]

Thanks - much appreciated

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I heard a Marketplace story on Germany a few months back. The gist is that at least with large corporations the labor unions have guaranteed seats on the board of directors. The representatives of the workers have a tremendous sense of ownership and loyalty and are very willing to sacrifice when needed, but also take a far greater share of the profits than companies in the US would find acceptable.

I obviously didn't get a complete breakdown of the German corporate system, but I'd be a very strong advocate of workers on the board. If you want workers to car about the company they need to have a say in the operations. I'm all for a real partnership between owners and labor.

What about privately-held businesses?

It seems like Germany's success lies in the fact that are very good at skilled manufacturing and engineering. Something that is harder to outsource in comparison to unskilled labor.

[JPhillips]

I was a little off on the BoD analogy. Their are multiple levels of corporate governance in Germany. Here's a short primer:

The board of management is responsible for managing the company and representing it in its dealings with third parties. The board of management’s functions are comparable to those performed in the ordinary course of business by the senior executives of a U.S. company. However, the members of the board of management of a German stock corporation and of an SE including its chairman or speaker, are regarded as peers and share a collective responsibility for all management decisions.

The supervisory board oversees the company’s board of management and appoints its members. Members of the supervisory board may generally not be involved in the day-to-day management of the company. However, the company’s articles of incorporation or its supervisory board must specify those matters of fundamental importance which may only be dealt with upon the prior consent of the supervisory board. Matters requiring such prior consent include decisions or actions having a fundamental impact on the assets, financial or profit situation of the company.

The supervisory boards of major German stock corporations and SE’s are subject to employee codetermination and are comprised of representatives of the shareholders and employees. Traditionally, the shareholder representatives on the supervisory board have a good understanding of the business activities of the company. Depending on the company’s total number of employees, up to one-half of the supervisory board members will be elected by the company’s employees. The chairman of the Supervisory Board is a representative of the shareholders, and the deputy chairman or one of the two deputy chairmen common to an SE is a representative of the employees. In the event of a tie vote, the deciding vote is cast by the chairman.

That's not the only thing currently working in Germany. A greater reliance on manufacturing, a much greater investment in worker training, and other factors have helped Germany.

[bhlloy]

Having spent quite a bit of time in Germany in High School, it really starts with the education system IMO. Much more hands on and technical than the UK and what I've seen of the US, and they separate the kids who really want to learn from the kids that just want to get some vocational experience early on. Light years ahead of us in that regard.

[King of New York]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Having spent quite a bit of time in Germany in High School, it really starts with the education system IMO. Much more hands on and technical than the UK and what I've seen of the US, and they separate the kids who really want to learn from the kids that just want to get some vocational experience early on. Light years ahead of us in that regard.

Aye. And that's one of the reasons why the German model would be so hard to import to the United States--here in the US, the idea that "anyone can be anything that they want to be" is an important part of our self-image. The German model basically sorts kids out at an earlyish age, puts them on specific tracks from which it is difficult to deviate, and tells most of them that "no, you cannot be anything that you want to be, you can be this."

[RainMaker]

Germany also benefits greatly from the currency situation in Europe.

[JPhillips]

There's really just no end to how far the GOP will go if given a chance.

New Hampshire’s House is scheduled to vote this week whether to repeal a law requiring public schools to offer kindergarten.

The House Education Committee is recommending keeping the requirement, but a minority on the committee is fighting to repeal the law. State Rep. J.R. Hoell, a Dunbarton Republican, argued the bill isn’t about eliminating kindergarten but about giving local voters the control over whether to offer programs.

[larrymcg421]

There's a Georgia state rep that wants police to investigate all miscarriages.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

There's a Georgia state rep that wants police to investigate all miscarriages.

You can't be serious?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

There's a Georgia state rep that wants police to investigate all miscarriages.

Haven't seen the story or heard it mentioned elsewhere, so I'm going to take a wild guess: the guy from up in the NW corner of the state (not Rossville, but up that way. Chickamauga maybe? Mullis I think it is)?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

There's really just no end to how far the GOP will go if given a chance. kindergarten story here

Out of curiosity, what age does K start there?

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Haven't seen the story or heard it mentioned elsewhere, so I'm going to take a wild guess: the guy from up in the NW corner of the state (not Rossville, but up that way. Chickamauga maybe? Mullis I think it is)?

Just looked it up and it is real. Bobby Franklin is the guy's name.

Was he joking or being sarcastic and it got taken out of context? A miscarriage is a traumatizing event and I couldn't fathom putting a woman through an investigation into it and questioning.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Just looked it up and it is real. Bobby Franklin is the guy's name.

Was he joking or being sarcastic and it got taken out of context? A miscarriage is a traumatizing event and I couldn't fathom putting a woman through an investigation into it and questioning.

Most likely serious. He definitely wasn't my first suspect, Mullis is an extremely Christian right guy but this sounded up his alley to me somehow.

Franklin (R-Marietta) is actually better known lately for things such as "bills requiring the exclusive use of gold and silver as tender in payment of debts by or to the state; a bill seeking to eliminate crop management regulations; another bill banning forced vaccinations; a bill to stop the collection of the Georgia income tax; another to stop all property taxes and yet another to end eminent domain."

He seems to have become a rather odd mix of extreme religious right AND extreme libertarianism. Imagine Ron Paul crossed with Pat Robertson if you can. I suspect he's going for the title of "Author of Most Bills That Never Get Out of Committee" this year.

[jeff061]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Out of curiosity, what age does K start there?

4 or 5.

[larrymcg421]

Franklin also proposed a bill to rename rape victims as "accusers".

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Franklin also proposed a bill to rename rape victims as "accusers".

There's actually a reasonable logic to that one though, even though it seemed to get the dander up for a handful of folks online

o amend Titles 16 and 17 of the Official Code of Georgia Annotated, relating to criminal law and criminal procedure, respectively, so as to change the term “victim” to the term “accuser” in the context of a number of statutes making reference to circumstances where there has not yet been a criminal conviction;

Given a number of false rape claims in the news around here (i.e. Athens) lately, I can see where this isn't really unreasonable. It's more semantical than anything & probably ought to be applied wholesale to all charges.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by jeff061

4 or 5.

That was the distinction I was looking for, turns out that the answer is five.
I can definitely see where mandatory 4 would draw the ire of a goodly number of parents (and especially those who aren't using it as government-funded daycare).

Probably worth noting here too that mandatory K is very new in New Hampshire, only became a statewide rule as of 2009.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

There's really just no end to how far the GOP will go if given a chance.

To be fair- that's true of a lot of local politicians of all stripes. This is why I just roll my eyes until I get some more meat to an argument whenever I see the words "this should be decided at a more local level".

SI

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I suspect he's going for the title of "Author of Most Bills That Never Get Out of Committee" this year.

SI

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I heard a Marketplace story on Germany a few months back. The gist is that at least with large corporations the labor unions have guaranteed seats on the board of directors. The representatives of the workers have a tremendous sense of ownership and loyalty and are very willing to sacrifice when needed, but also take a far greater share of the profits than companies in the US would find acceptable.

I would be careful of making the broad generalization regarding US companies. Companies based in the north I agree with, but many factories in the south have profit sharing with their employees or are employee owned. We used to joke that you could tell if you were in a steel mill up north or down south by going to the break room. If you were up north, there were always at least 15-20 guys in there. If you were down south, it was a ghost town.

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Having spent quite a bit of time in Germany in High School, it really starts with the education system IMO. Much more hands on and technical than the UK and what I've seen of the US, and they separate the kids who really want to learn from the kids that just want to get some vocational experience early on. Light years ahead of us in that regard.

But you can't separate the kids! You can't say that they all can't achieve the same things or all don't want to learn!

Sorry, had a conversation with my kid's teacher the other day and this exact conversation came up.

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by Warhammer

But you can't separate the kids! You can't say that they all can't achieve the same things or all don't want to learn!

Sorry, had a conversation with my kid's teacher the other day and this exact conversation came up.

The problem here in the U.S. is that we've taken away even the OPTION of vocational education. I agree that going Germany's route is overkill, but plenty of kids used to CHOOSE that path by high school here in the US. And as long as "test scores" which measure college prep readiness are used to measure school performance, we'll have a very difficult time going back there.

[JPhillips]

One of Reagan's former budget directors, Bruce Bartlett, saying federal taxes are too low to balance the budget.

According to the historical tables, federal revenues will only consume 14.4 percent of GDP this year – the lowest percentage since 1950. The postwar average is about 18.5 percent and there were many very prosperous years when revenues were considerably higher. In the late 1990s, they averaged more than 20 percent of GDP, which was a key reason why we ran budget surpluses.

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

One of Reagan's former budget directors, Bruce Bartlett, saying federal taxes are too low to balance the budget.

Can you do the math and tell me what percent of GDP equals how much money? How much of a dent would we make in the deficit if we went to the 18.5 percent mentioned? Or the 20 percent mentioned?

Given that the budget in the 90s was less than half what's being proposed right now, I'd like to know exactly how much of that deficit is going to be overcome.

My guesses based on the budget figures I've seen ($1.6 trillion deficit on $3.7 trillion budget means $2.1 trillion revenue) would be that you are talking about upping revenue by (4 / 14.5 = 27.5%), which would mean revenues go from $2.1 trillion to $2.6775 trillion, so you've cut $500b out of the deficit and still need to cut around $1 trillion from this budget. At 20% GDP we get to $2.97 trillion in revenue, and still have just over $700 billion to cut from this budget.

So even taking taxes to the levels mentioned in your quoted article, if I plug in the other numbers I've seen, there are still HUGE cuts that are necessary. You want to take taxation back to Clinton levels, while I'd like to see spending more in line with his administration. This budget has been increasing at alarming rates that will outstrip any reasonable tax increase.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

So even taking taxes to the levels mentioned in your quoted article, if I plug in the other numbers I've seen, there are still HUGE cuts that are necessary. You want to take taxation back to Clinton levels, while I'd like to see spending more in line with his administration. This budget has been increasing at alarming rates that will outstrip any reasonable tax increase.

We need to do both in order to fix the problem. One or the other isn't going to get it done, that's the problem.

[JPhillips]

What DT said. I'm not opposed to some spending cuts, I just think it's unrealistic to get to balanced with only spending cuts.

[gstelmack]

What has changed taxation wise? I'm checking out http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/browse/coll...-TAB&ycord=630, the official government page, and we have been right up there in percentages of GDP in revenue until the last two years (2007 = 18.5, 2008 = 17.5, 2009 = 14.9, 2010 = 14.9). So yes, I'm willing to go back to 2008 or even tax levels.

In raw numbers, first column is year, second column receipts, third column outlays, fourth column is surplus / deficit:

2000	2,025,191	1,788,950	236,241
2001	1,991,082	1,862,846	128,236
2002	1,853,136	2,010,894	-157,758
2003	1,782,314	2,159,899	-377,585
2004	1,880,114	2,292,841	-412,727
2005	2,153,611	2,471,957	-318,346
2006	2,406,869	2,655,050	-248,181
2007	2,567,985	2,728,686	-160,701
2008	2,523,991	2,982,544	-458,553
2009	2,104,989	3,517,677	-1,412,688
2010	2,162,724	3,456,213	-1,293,489
2011 estimate	2,173,700	3,818,819	-1,645,119

There may be a mild problem with that second column (partially Bush-era tax cuts, partially economy-related), but the third one is going out of control and needs its growth curve to line up more like the second column.

So I come back to a matter of degrees. Sure, bump taxes up a bit, but ONLY if you really bring in that spending that has gone nuts over the last 2-3 years. We should be pulling in $2.6 - $2.7 trillion according to that (+$500 billion or so), and that's also what we should be spending (-$1.1 trillion or so). Show me you can even start getting spending under control and I'll be willing to talk tax increases.

[JPhillips]

It's unfair to look at FY 2010 and 2011 spending without acknowledging that some portion of the increase is short term stimulus and not locked-in long term spending. Even if you don't agree with the stimulus spending it's unfair to look at it as a continuing sharp slope upward.

edit: And, a big portion of increased spending is medical. HCR starts to address that, but it's still the elephant in the room. The long term deficit can't be fixed without somehow addressing medical inflation. Of course that means paying providers less or cutting services and we saw how that discusion played out.

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

It's unfair to look at FY 2010 and 2011 spending without acknowledging that some portion of the increase is short term stimulus and not locked-in long term spending. Even if you don't agree with the stimulus spending it's unfair to look at it as a continuing sharp slope upward.

edit: And, a big portion of increased spending is medical. HCR starts to address that, but it's still the elephant in the room. The long term deficit can't be fixed without somehow addressing medical inflation. Of course that means paying providers less or cutting services and we saw how that discusion played out.

If it's short-term, why do we need increased taxes that won't go away?

I think you guys have convinced me that a tax increase is probably warranted, if it's a small one, based on the numbers I've been looking at. Bring our taxes back in line, maybe I can agree to. But it needs to include cutting this budget back to the bone. We need to get balanced and pay off the debt so we can spend that money somewhere useful instead.

We quite simply cannot afford the budget being put forth right now, stimulus or not, medical care or not.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

If it's short-term, why do we need increased taxes that won't go away?

I think you guys have convinced me that a tax increase is probably warranted, if it's a small one, based on the numbers I've been looking at. Bring our taxes back in line, maybe I can agree to. But it needs to include cutting this budget back to the bone. We need to get balanced and pay off the debt so we can spend that money somewhere useful instead.

We quite simply cannot afford the budget being put forth right now, stimulus or not, medical care or not.

I'd also add that the tax increases should be targeted sensibly - corporate tax rates, corporate tax loopholes, tax on carried interest (how those hedge fund managers manage to make all that money tax free), etc., rather than just saying "well let's raise everybody's taxes across the board by X%." There are segments of the population that by far are not paying anything close to "their share." (if you'll allow me to use that shorthanded phrase to encompass that idea)

[JPhillips]

But we can't afford to cut/tax too much right now. Both will have a temporary drag on the economy. Cutting spending by several hundred billion combined with billions more in state cuts will put hundreds of thousands out of work which will throw us into a double dip recession which will lower tax revenues and... increase the deficit. There are really three essentials to balancing the budget, more revenue, spending cuts and economic growth.

This is why it's essential to solve the structural deficit problem that had been at least temporary solved by Clinton. We need to be able to live with short term deficits, even large ones, in economic downturns, but to do that the structural deficit needs to be under control. Starting from 500bil in the hole killed us when revenue decreased from the recession and stimulus spending/tax cuts were used to help jump the economy. Now we're in a position that even without increased stimulus spending we'd still be 1tril or more in the red due to decreased revenue and a long-term structural deficit.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

But we can't afford to cut/tax too much right now. Both will have a temporary drag on the economy. Cutting spending by several hundred billion combined with billions more in state cuts will put hundreds of thousands out of work which will throw us into a double dip recession which will lower tax revenues and... increase the deficit. There are really three essentials to balancing the budget, more revenue, spending cuts and economic growth.

This is why it's essential to solve the structural deficit problem that had been at least temporary solved by Clinton. We need to be able to live with short term deficits, even large ones, in economic downturns, but to do that the structural deficit needs to be under control. Starting from 500bil in the hole killed us when revenue decreased from the recession and stimulus spending/tax cuts were used to help jump the economy. Now we're in a position that even without increased stimulus spending we'd still be 1tril or more in the red due to decreased revenue and a long-term structural deficit.

Yes to this.

[SteveMax58]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

But we can't afford to cut/tax too much right now. Both will have a temporary drag on the economy. Cutting spending by several hundred billion combined with billions more in state cuts will put hundreds of thousands out of work which will throw us into a double dip recession which will lower tax revenues and... increase the deficit. There are really three essentials to balancing the budget, more revenue, spending cuts and economic growth.

Agreed all day on this, especially the bolded part, but you can't get blood from a turnip, either.

The opportunity to provide the baseline for growth was wasted on the stimulus bill. I actually agree with the Paul Krugmans of the world who said it wasnt big enough...the problem with it however is that it wasnt the right type of debt to rackup that would eventually payoff. Sort of like having your car breakdown and now having a choice of putting yourself in debt to...(a) get new rims on the broken down car...(b) buy a cheap car to get you back/forth to work until you can do better. And we chose (a).

I know I'm getting on my soapbox again for my silly thinking that energy independence was the way to go...but it is (IMHO) the only initiative in today's economy that you can spend trillions on, and expect a sizable return from. Its, of course, much more complicated than just "do that energy thing...and hurry up" but there really aren't that many options to grow the largest economy in the world even further.

Jobless benefits...no realistic ROI. Continuation of Bush tax cuts...no realistic ROI (unless you believe all people are over taxed as it is...a separate debate). Jobs with benefits...ROI. Tax cuts for investment in the energy independence initiative...ROI. What we needed to do was to put people to work on energy independence and a structural energy grid rather than focusing on giving people unemployment for 2 years.

I'll hop down now as I dont have all of the answers. But I do wish our elected leaders had just a smattering of vision...for once.

[JPhillips]

I only disagree with you on unemployment extensions which have been shown to have a good multiplier. I hated the 40% of the stimulus that went to poorly targeted tax cuts and I would have loved a much clearer energy/infrastructure employment focus on the spending. I don't think it could have passed, but since we're talking preference that's what me as emperor would have done.

Well, after cutting Jon's internet and allowing boobs in the images thread.

[SteveMax58]

If the stimulus & HCR were passed, I'd have a hard time believing energy independence couldn't.

Agree that it wouldn't pass now, though. It wont even be on the radar int he next 2 years.

[DaddyTorgo]

The Congressional Budget Office has delivered an official estimate of what repealing the Affordable Care Act would do to the federal budget. According to CBO's estimates, the deficit would rise by $210 billion in the first decade:

H.R. 2 would, on net, increase federal deficits over the next decade because the net savings from eliminating the coverage provisions would be more than offset by the combination of other spending increases and revenue reductions. In total, CBO and JCT estimate that H.R. 2 would reduce outlays by about $604 billion and reduce revenues by about $813 billion over the 2012-2021 period.

This is twice the estimate the CBO made last year, when it projected the effects of a similar repeal bill. Why the difference? Because it's a year later and the projection period extends through 2021 rather than 2011. Remember, the law is designed to save more money as time goes on.

[larrymcg421]

Obama administrations drops defense of DOMA.

Hopefully this is a sign of things to come. Perhaps the recent actions in Wisconsin can energize Democrats to finally start standing up for their principles.

[gstelmack]

So looking at the stories of Dems leaving various state legislatures to avoid votes on bills, what happens when budgets don't pass and thus there is no money to spend? Aren't they just going to put out of work all the workers they are allegedly defending?

[Young Drachma]

Why Isn't Wall Street in Jail? | Rolling Stone Politics

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

So looking at the stories of Dems leaving various state legislatures to avoid votes on bills, what happens when budgets don't pass and thus there is no money to spend? Aren't they just going to put out of work all the workers they are allegedly defending?

Don't act like this is something new and horrible from the Dems. This has a long and rich history. I can think of one respected lawmaker, who saw that a key vote was going to go against them, and tried to hide in the State Senate's change room.. when that didn't work, he tried leaving, only to find the doors locked, but this plucky "representative of the people" fled the building by the expedient of jumping out of a second story window and fleeing the premises.

This scofflaw and horrible person?

Abraham Lincoln.

(Also, Walker's currently losing support, I'm hopeful that he's the one who folds and not theunions)