Werewolf XXVIII: Mad Wizard and the Wolves (Game over Pg45)

[hoopsguy]

In regards to vote switches from Anxiety to Tyrith, we have seven hours before the deadline. I would advocate people vote who they think is guilty.

I don't know Anxiety is a wolf, although I think he is. But I have been wrong before this game and I'll probably be wrong again before the game is out. If Anxiety is lynched today and is shown as a human, I'll thank you guys for getting it right despite my cluelessness. And prepare for whatever fallout comes the following day because of it.

I don't know that Tyrith is a human, although I think it is considerably more likely than Anxiety based on re-reading Anxiety's earlier posts with his reveal in mind. If he is lynched and shown to be a human then I'll feel like I've finally contributed something to Team Wolf this game. Anxiety/Tyrith is not a zero-sum game, but I would be very surprised if both are humans. And moderately surprised if both are wolves.

[Lathum]

I'm not saying I disagree with hoops being the bodyguard, but I know that if I was the bodyguard I wouldn't out myself, what is the point? I would much rather wait untill

1. We get a conformation of a seer
2. I was in danger of being lynched

Once you out yourself as the bodyguard you are maybe giving yourself 2 days/nights to live which means unless hoops gets targeted soon in a night action I would be very suspiscous of him. It seems possible to me he is trying to lull someone into revealing a key role.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I'm not saying I disagree with hoops being the bodyguard, but I know that if I was the bodyguard I wouldn't out myself, what is the point? I would much rather wait untill

1. We get a conformation of a seer
2. I was in danger of being lynched

Once you out yourself as the bodyguard you are maybe giving yourself 2 days/nights to live which means unless hoops gets targeted soon in a night action I would be very suspiscous of him. It seems possible to me he is trying to lull someone into revealing a key role.

Didn't you during the Blade vs Hoops day come out pretty strongly and say you believed both Hoops and Blade to be on our side? This post seems to contradict that some. Did I misunderstand your point on that day and that was merely just a best guess on your part, and you are starting to change your opinion?

Not attacking here, just trying to clarify what I know of your point of view. I myself have slid hoops up and down a little since that day, so you might be feeling the same thing that I am today with his posts. But I guess my take on your post of Blade and Hoops was you felt stronger about Hoops than I did at the time.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I'm not sure what that would accomplish other than putting hoops into more danger. It would be 5-3-2 at that point, meaning 1 flip away from a tie between Anxiety and Hoops.

While I would be less caring if the vote went from Anxiety to Tyrith, I'm not sure I would want to lose hoops instead of the other two here. From what it sounds like there is a core group of 4-6 of us who feel strongly about both Anxiety and Tyrith right now. Not sure we want to split that voting group into half right now

Y'know, truthfully, you guys are far more focused than I am right now.

I'm still looking things over, and my vote is, as always, subject to change.

I've already made it manifest, both prior to taking the role and since, that I have two games to umpire tonight, beginning at 4:15 (meaning I'm leaving the house by probably no later than 3:30 PDT), and that my true involvement probably won't start until tomorrow. Given that, I wanted to make sure I at least have a vote cast, and I've given my reasoning for the vote as currently cast.

I need to look things over more carefully before I'd have a strong feeling either way on Anxiety or Tyrith, and I don't want to cast a vote for people facing a lynch if I haven't any confidence in that vote. If I guess wrong, it gets a wolf lynched, and that doesn't help us any.

Hoops, on the other hand, is a guy who's not facing any imminent threat (although I believe he bears close watching). I can get my suspicions out there, get a vote out there, and not have to worry about a hunch vote nuking anybody on my first day, before I'm really settled in. If events conspire such that I cannot get another vote in before my games tonight, at least there's something out there.

[Lathum]

what I meant was that if hoops was claiming to be the bodyguard and I really was the body guard I wouldn't contradict him at all. The reason being by him saying he is the bodyguard he puts a huge target on his back. I can't recall a WW game where the body guard hasn't been the target of a night attatck soon after his reveal.

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, I had just avoided being lynched on Day 2 by one vote that came in a minute before deadline. So I did feel that I was in danger of being lynched on Day 3 when mckerney turned up wolf.

Beyond that, I guess I don't necessarily view bodyguard as a super-critical role. I would rather have it on my side than not, but I can't see it being any better than the 3rd best good-guy role in this game (before factoring in any of the role reveals) behind seer and alpha wolf.

Finally, Day 3 started with some conversation about a conversion and questions about whether the bodyguard had protected. So the role reveal served to clarify positions on these topics as well. I certainly accept that other players might have gone about their business differently, but that's the logic behind my play.

In terms of still being around, I suspect that if we are not making headway on getting some humans pretty soon that I'll be sacrificed because I must be the puppet master rather than the dope being toyed with ... it doesn't make the theory right, but I understand it on some level.

[st.cronin]

The difference here is that the BEST kill for the wizards team is probably the pack leader. That's why I think both hoops and I are safe for now.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Lathum

what I meant was that if hoops was claiming to be the bodyguard and I really was the body guard I wouldn't contradict him at all. The reason being by him saying he is the bodyguard he puts a huge target on his back. I can't recall a WW game where the body guard hasn't been the target of a night attatck soon after his reveal.

Ok, I misunderstood your previous post. Gotcha

[Tyrith]

What about re-reading Anxiety's posts makes you think he's clear, hoops?

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Here's my circle of trust:

Me.

That's not a circle, that's a dot


-Anxiety

[Abe Sargent]

BTW, I'd be willing to switch my vote to someone if anyone could make a case for that person. All my intuitions have brought me is confusion.

-Anxiety

[Tyrith]

I would like to note that fozzie made it pretty clear that blade did have a brother type role out there, my reveal has been out there several days, and no one has made a move to contradict it. And the text of blade's death makes it so that the person can't already be dead, which isn't necessarily true for certain other role reveals.

And I also have to comment that Anxiety's role reveal has absolutely no specifics at all, meaning that if it were fake, it'd be impossible to contradict.

[hoopsguy]

Tyrith, I'll lay out my thought process on Anxiety, along with some post numbers. A couple of them are pretty long, so I'll just do summaries there.

Came home yesterday afternoon to read Anxiety's reveal. Was trying to work through it, in terms of BS (thought so early) or real.

Post #1133, by me directed at Anxiety:

Did you submit trust lists to SirFozzie? I'm trying to understand how you could have intuition based on who you (or the group) trusts if there is not an established trust list?

Post #1167, by Anxiety, replying to my question:

No submissions. I assumed that SF read the thread, read who I either agreed with or said was clean, and went with that.

On the other hand, like I've said, it could have meant who the "pack" trusted, not who I did.

-Anxiety

Post #1168, Anxiety clarifying:

Dola - hit send befoe I typed my last bit. I started publishing trust lists for you guys in order to help out SF.

-Anxiety

Post #1169, my response:

So if you were publishing trust lists, then you had to have some kind of an inkling that your "ability" would work in this fashion?

Posts #1171-72 by Anxiety:

Only for days three and four.

For clarification, in other words, I only started posting trust lists for SF after I got the first comment about someone I or we trusted. I only starting posting these lists on Day three, with the cronin vote.

While Anxiety was composing these, I started going through all of his posts from Days 2 and 3, looking to see if there were published trust lists. So I had not seen that he indicated there was not one for Day 2 at that point. I thought I had caught a lie, at which point I was going to slam my vote on him and not look back. But after seeing his post on Night 3 (#886) it dovetailed exactly with what he said his info was from the Night 2 PM. And then his post early in Day 4 exactly coincides with his info on what he got in the Night 3 PM (Post #977). So if Anxiety was pulling a BS reveal, he had conceived it several days prior to using it. Not impossible, but the vagueness of the reveal and the very specific matching post content didn't match up in my head as a fake reveal.

If someone goes through the effort of making a fake role reveal, and planting evidence to support it, I think it would be something that is more believable than his role reveal was - the info revealed was pretty vague and didn't, in and of itself, enhance people's belief that he is a wolf.

Barkeep explicitly asks him if he left hints about having a role and he says no. But they are out there plain as day to find ... is this the work of someone running a fake role reveal or someone who is just not as dialed into their every post in a werewolf game? I choose to believe the latter, even if my research started with the intention of burying him.


So there is my case for why I believe Anxiety - hope that helps.

[Tyrith]

There have to be at least three bad guys. Even if you believe I'm one, which I'm not, and you believe schmidty is one, that leaves a third. And if you believe Anxiety, that means one of the "trusted" players is bad. That could mean you, cronin, and to a lesser extent possibly saldana and barkeep. Who out of that group would you say is the bad guy?

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

There have to be at least three bad guys. Even if you believe I'm one, which I'm not, and you believe schmidty is one, that leaves a third. And if you believe Anxiety, that means one of the "trusted" players is bad. That could mean you, cronin, and to a lesser extent possibly saldana and barkeep. Who out of that group would you say is the bad guy?

You have left out Lathum and Sack.

[Tyrith]

Seems I did, point still stands.

[st.cronin]

lol

No it doesn't. Depending on how tightly you define the various trust lists, there are three bad guys, and between 4-7 people who haven't been cleared.

[Tyrith]

I want to start thinking outside of the anxiety/schmidty/me box that's been around for the last couple of days, because since I know I'm not a bad guy, it can't cover everyone, and anxiety's reveal, if believed, seems to back this up. The current path isn't going to get us all the way home, new ideas are needed.

[hoopsguy]

For what it is worth, I don't have 100% belief in our "trusted list" - we don't understand what happens when Cronin scans the wizard, for example. We have a triumvirate emerging with Saldana/Barkeep/Coffee that is all cleared in some manner but only Barkeep is cleared by both Cronin and one of the triumvirate.

That said, with three bad guys out there I'm happy to rely on this list for now and target the people who are not yet aligned. If all of the bad guys have slithered into trust lists already then we are probably going to lose the game.

I'm willing to listen to alternate strategies for approaching the game - particularly since I'm on the record for not liking the current voteleader as a human - but expect discussion on the pros/cons of them and how you have reached your conclusions.

[hoopsguy]

Also, AlanT has not been cleared yet so throw him into the mix along with Lathum and Sack.

[Lathum]

lets just keep in mind there is no guarentee that there are still 3 baddies left. I think the focus needs to be on finding out who the wizard is.

[st.cronin]

I agree that it is somewhat likely that one of the trusted is probably bad. The most trusted players that are likely to be bad, by my analysis, are:

Hoopsguy
Cronin
Alan T
Lathum

I think, even if I get waxed tonight, there will be more information on those players tomorrow. For today, I don't think it makes any sense to put a vote on one.

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, if you trust Anxiety's info, then there were three bad guys to start (Night 0 info). The only way we have gotten a human is if there was a cunning role - not impossible but I don't think we can count on this.

[Schmidty]

I'm waiting until near the deadline to see if my vote will even matter.

[Coffee Warlord]

Uh. You're most likely to be bad?

Originally Posted by cronin

I agree that it is somewhat likely that one of the trusted is probably bad. The most trusted players that are likely to be bad, by my analysis, are:

Hoopsguy
Cronin
Alan T
Lathum

Edited to add the quote.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Also, AlanT has not been cleared yet so throw him into the mix along with Lathum and Sack.

What exactly justifies me being in the mix? The play of my predecessor, who was a) in transit to Chicago, and b) lacked stable and reliable internet access (which was the whole reason he dropped out, AFAIR)?

Seems like a shaky basis for suspicion to me.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Uh. You're most likely to be bad?

Come again?

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I agree that it is somewhat likely that one of the trusted is probably bad. The most trusted players that are likely to be bad, by my analysis, are:

Hoopsguy
Cronin
Alan T
Lathum

I think, even if I get waxed tonight, there will be more information on those players tomorrow. For today, I don't think it makes any sense to put a vote on one.

Yeah, what CW said. Cronin, why ARE you in your own list of suspects?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Lathum, if you trust Anxiety's info, then there were three bad guys to start (Night 0 info). The only way we have gotten a human is if there was a cunning role - not impossible but I don't think we can count on this.

I realize that, but with there being no information given upon death how do we know if we killed a wizard, normal wolf, or wolf with a special ability?

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Come again?

Look again. Added the post I was really referring to there.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by Lathum

lets just keep in mind there is no guarentee that there are still 3 baddies left. I think the focus needs to be on finding out who the wizard is.

How do you figure?

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

What exactly justifies me being in the mix? The play of my predecessor, who was a) in transit to Chicago, and b) lacked stable and reliable internet access (which was the whole reason he dropped out, AFAIR)?

Seems like a shaky basis for suspicion to me.

But that's how hoops works. Take a small shred of info and then eloquently turn it into Watergate.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

How do you figure?

post 1279

[st.cronin]

I included myself just because I was trying to think for the group. I was pointing out where we should be looking. Obviously, I'm not going to vote for myself.

[st.cronin]

dola

Should be looking EVENTUALLY. I don't think it's a good idea to look there today, necessarily.

[hoopsguy]

Sack, there was almost nothing to either help or hurt in assessing Ardent for exactly the reasons you mentioned. That slots him (now you) lower on trust lists than people who have gained trust in the first 3+ days of the game.

By the way, thanks for objecting to me when I add AlanT to Cronin's list, but not when Cronin brings your name explicitly a couple of posts earlier. Definitely leaves me with a warm fuzzy about you coming into the game, along with your insta-vote for me because I "could be dangerous".

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Sack, there was almost nothing to either help or hurt in assessing Ardent for exactly the reasons you mentioned. That slots him (now you) lower on trust lists than people who have gained trust in the first 3+ days of the game.

By the way, thanks for objecting to me when I add AlanT to Cronin's list, but not when Cronin brings your name explicitly a couple of posts earlier. Definitely leaves me with a warm fuzzy about you coming into the game, along with your insta-vote for me because I "could be dangerous".

Uh oh, hoopsguy's calm exterior is breaking........

[hoopsguy]

Schmidty, at least you called my eloquent Beats several other adjectives I have heard ...

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Uh. You're most likely to be bad?



Edited to add the quote.

Coffee, you didn't know the ettiquette, but please don't edit posts in a WW thread, it's bad form (was used a couple times to reveal information and then quickly get edited out) Just dolapost

[Alan T]

Fozzie, do you still work at EMC? (Didnt you at some point?) Or am I drunk?

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Coffee, you didn't know the ettiquette, but please don't edit posts in a WW thread, it's bad form (was used a couple times to reveal information and then quickly get edited out) Just dolapost

I usually do. In the above case, I figured it was harmless enough to not matter.

Or perhaps I just wanted to goad you into posting something.

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Fozzie, do you still work at EMC? (Didnt you at some point?) Or am I drunk?

Yup, still do, my first full year of working here, but approaching three years with the company now (was a contractor previously)

However, you still may be drunk.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Sack, there was almost nothing to either help or hurt in assessing Ardent for exactly the reasons you mentioned. That slots him (now you) lower on trust lists than people who have gained trust in the first 3+ days of the game.

By the way, thanks for objecting to me when I add AlanT to Cronin's list, but not when Cronin brings your name explicitly a couple of posts earlier. Definitely leaves me with a warm fuzzy about you coming into the game, along with your insta-vote for me because I "could be dangerous".

Your post was right there in plain view when I entered the thread.

Doesn't mean I don't object to the same thing in cronin's post. Besides, he's got issues of his own right now. Hard to take it seriously when he's flagging himself as a suspect, typo or not.

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Or perhaps I just wanted to goad you into posting something.

Like your role, perhaps?

Double edged sword, compadre

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Like your role, perhaps?

Double edged sword, compadre

BRING IT, BITCH!

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

BRING IT, BITCH!

Oh goody. (makes note on piece of paper just in case CW files an unfair grievance charge with the WW Fairness Council.. "He told me to bring it, so I brung it")

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Oh goody. (makes note on piece of paper just in case CW files an unfair grievance charge with the WW Fairness Council.. "He told me to bring it, so I brung it")

I have yaks and I'm not afraid to use them, you know.

(Hmm. Have we sidetracked the thread enough, ya think?)

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

I have yaks and I'm not afraid to use them, you know.

(Hmm. Have we sidetracked the thread enough, ya think?)

Hmm.. maybe a bit more.

YAHTZEE!

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Yup, still do, my first full year of working here, but approaching three years with the company now (was a contractor previously)

However, you still may be drunk.

Which office are you in? I moved a little bit back (since I'm almost never in Mass and didnt feel like driving 2 hours to work each way when I was.) There are alot of EMC offices near where I live now.

[SackAttack]

I gotta leave early to get some Gatorades since I'm working the plate and have to wear the damn pads today.

Be back probably around, um. Crap, I may run past 9 pm today.

Hurray for the playoffs, I guess.