The Thread of the 2009-2010 NBA Season

[Groundhog]

I'm actually pretty keen to watch a game with the new Mavs lineup. Butler and Haywood are nice upgrades for them. They might be a real darkhorse now in the West.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by whomario

I do agree, however (and i think that´s mainly what TroF is aiming at): it has been proven time and time again that the Lakers have big, big trouble guarding quick PGs.
The problem will be to exploit that while still keeping Billups and Smith on the court which will be near impossible. Heck, even playing just Lawson and Billups at the same time is near impossible as long as the Lakers play PG/Bryant/Artest/Gasol(Odom)/Bynum(Gasol).

Basically he´ll be a backup to Billups who´ll likely play 36-40 minutes.

Want to know my point?

Well, here are Lawson's first two games against the Lakers:

Game 1 - 22 minutes, 4-7 from the floor, 4-4 on FT, 1 rebound, 6 assists, 0 turnovers, 13 points. +7

Game 2 - 19 minutes, 5-6 from the floor, 2-2 on FT, 1 boards, 3 assists, 1 turnover, 13 points. +8

Here is yesterday.

Game 3 - (yesterday), 6 minutes, 1-3 from the floor, 4-4 on FT, 0 rebounds or assists (2 passes ended up in foul shots), +2

Anthony Carter yesterday - 7 minutes, 1-2, 2 points, 1 board, 1 assist, 2 points. -7

Anthony Carter in the Lakers series last year - -7, -2, -7, -2, -3, +1

Ty has yet to have a game where he came in vs. the Lakers and the team lost points. Anthony Carter has one game in over two years where he came in and the Nuggets didn't lose points. You think that -7 put up by Anthony Carter didn't have a huge impact yesterday? This was a 6 point game that included an intentional foul that gave the Lakers 2 points. Roland ratings on the year for both (Lawson +3.1, Carter -9.7)

You think that Melo fouling out wasn't a huge component of the game, Chief? The Nuggets didn't score a point with him off the floor over the final two and a half minutes. Kobe may have been mugged on the play by JR, but he didn't get a cheap offensive foul called on him with the game on the line. (indeed, Kobe had 3 fouls called on him all game)

And Billups is no longer a 40 minute a game guy. He had to be last year and last night when a replacement level NBA player has to play for him. He actually averages under 34 minutes a game. I don't care if he steps off the court for 12 minutes, 8 minutes, or 4 minutes. . . the Nuggets are a vastly superior team when Ty Lawson is the guy replacing him than they are if it's Anthony Carter.

[stevew]

without Shaq we will be in really big troubles during the playoffs. I think you can get but with some combo of hickson/powe/Andy/Z and win the home court. But you gotta have Shaq's fat ass in the paint to beat Boston, Orlando, the lakers and probably the nuggets.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by TroyF

Want to know my point?

Well, here are Lawson's first two games against the Lakers:

Game 1 - 22 minutes, 4-7 from the floor, 4-4 on FT, 1 rebound, 6 assists, 0 turnovers, 13 points. +7

Game 2 - 19 minutes, 5-6 from the floor, 2-2 on FT, 1 boards, 3 assists, 1 turnover, 13 points. +8

Here is yesterday.

Game 3 - (yesterday), 6 minutes, 1-3 from the floor, 4-4 on FT, 0 rebounds or assists (2 passes ended up in foul shots), +2

Anthony Carter yesterday - 7 minutes, 1-2, 2 points, 1 board, 1 assist, 2 points. -7

Anthony Carter in the Lakers series last year - -7, -2, -7, -2, -3, +1

Ty has yet to have a game where he came in vs. the Lakers and the team lost points. Anthony Carter has one game in over two years where he came in and the Nuggets didn't lose points. You think that -7 put up by Anthony Carter didn't have a huge impact yesterday? This was a 6 point game that included an intentional foul that gave the Lakers 2 points. Roland ratings on the year for both (Lawson +3.1, Carter -9.7)

You think that Melo fouling out wasn't a huge component of the game, Chief? The Nuggets didn't score a point with him off the floor over the final two and a half minutes. Kobe may have been mugged on the play by JR, but he didn't get a cheap offensive foul called on him with the game on the line. (indeed, Kobe had 3 fouls called on him all game)

And Billups is no longer a 40 minute a game guy. He had to be last year and last night when a replacement level NBA player has to play for him. He actually averages under 34 minutes a game. I don't care if he steps off the court for 12 minutes, 8 minutes, or 4 minutes. . . the Nuggets are a vastly superior team when Ty Lawson is the guy replacing him than they are if it's Anthony Carter.

Re: Lawson, seems than your issue isn't so much the greatness of Lawson, but the crapitude that is Carter.

As for Melo, I certainly know that he has the most impact for the Nuggets of any player when on the floor, but one offensive foul, poor call or not, isn't the make or break of a game. It takes six fouls to foul out. You telling me he didn't deserve the other five neither? And he shot 7-19 from the field yesterday, with Artest harassing him. The Nuggets may not have done much without him on the court, but seems to me they weren't doing much, at least in the second half, with him on the court either.

[MrBug708]

Lebron is going to change his number because he wants to honor what MJ has done for the game?

Right

[whomario]

Originally Posted by stevew

without Shaq we will be in really big troubles during the playoffs. I think you can get but with some combo of hickson/powe/Andy/Z and win the home court. But you gotta have Shaq's fat ass in the paint to beat Boston, Orlando, the lakers and probably the nuggets.

He is likely going to be back for the 2nd round of Playoffs and while with advancing age it might be more difficult to fit right in, but his basketball IQ is high enough to make that adjustment i´d say.

But yeah, if he doesn´t get back in time or doesn´t fit back in than this is a blow.

For the regular season i see no problem at all here, don´t see them loosing many games because of this.


Dallas won their 8th in a row yesterday and took over 2nd place from the Nuggets (lost against Phoenix).
Home court wide open after the Lakers still.

As far as the playoff race : Now 4/4.5 games between No8 Portland and Houston/New Orleans/Memphis

For Dallas it will be interesting to see if they´ll be even better with Dampier back. In theory they should, because him and Haywood are very similar players and they played great with him on the court. That combination could be a load in the playoffs, having the ability to play a double/double 7 footer next to Nowitzki at all times basically.

Speaking of Nowitzki : 27/13 yesterday, great run for him.

For Phoenix the bench came through and not just against Denver´s bench. Dragic and Frye were amazing.
It took 5 years, but the Suns finally have a good backup for Nash ...
They are still playing without Barbosa as well (and when he played, he still struggled with that wrist injury for a long time) , that will be interesting how he fits back in as they normally can´t drop anyone from their current 9 man rotation really.

Batum another good scoring game, 21 against the Grizzlies

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Re: Lawson, seems than your issue isn't so much the greatness of Lawson, but the crapitude that is Carter.

As for Melo, I certainly know that he has the most impact for the Nuggets of any player when on the floor, but one offensive foul, poor call or not, isn't the make or break of a game. It takes six fouls to foul out. You telling me he didn't deserve the other five neither? And he shot 7-19 from the field yesterday, with Artest harassing him. The Nuggets may not have done much without him on the court, but seems to me they weren't doing much, at least in the second half, with him on the court either.

It's a combination. Lawson is a damned good basketball player, and AC is a damned horrible one. You can't underestimate how huge that switch is.

Nuggets may not have been doing much with him, but they were screwed without him. And he had one other offensive foul call that was garbage. Both teams got away with multiple fouls, so that evened out.

Some thoughts from the Nuggets/OKC game tonight:

I know OKC was off a back to back, but they were horrible. (as I'm typing this, the Nuggets are up 106-66 and OKC has been outscored 45-14 in the second half)

Carmelo owned Jeff Green. Toyed with him all night. 30, 8, 5 in 28 minutes.

Ibaka rebounded well and was active, but I still just don't like what I see. It's one game, so nothing big there. I could still be wrong on him.

As bad as OKC looked, the Nuggets looked determined to prove something from the opening tip. Rotations were good, ball movement was terrific, energy was up. They really needed the night off to regroup after the 4 game in 5 night stretch.

The Nuggets just got through a stretch where they played 11 of 16 games against teams with a .600+ winning percentage. (and two other games in the time frame were against the .586 Spurs. Three bunnies in over a month)

After tonight, they won't play an elite team in any of their next ten games. 14 of their last 21 games will be against average or below average competition. I'm just happy they stayed above ground. Things are set up for them to get the two seed if they can have some semblance of health down the stretch.

[whomario]

What does "not like what i see" mean ? What do you expect him to do ?
He´s a solid rotation player on a good team as a rookie who was the 24th pick.
No one expects him to become an All Star or something.

Thunder had a horendous 3rd quarter, that things happen with young teams.

[TroyF]

What does it mean? What it means when you look and rate any player. You judge them based off of how good you think they look. I understand he's young and I understand he's put up decent numbers. Maybe I'm being too hard on him and maybe I'm 100% wrong about him. . . but I don't really like a lot about what I see right now. He's a bad defensive player right now. No, not average, bad. He overreacts to everything, has zero strength to match up with more physical players and gets beat off the dribble at will. OKC should be putting him on weaker offensive players and having him play a Camby/Birdman type of role where he can fly around. On offense, he can be pushed off the blocks easily by bigger guys. He also can get really frustrated and do some dumb things. (last night him and Carmelo were shoving a bit under the basket, Melo beats him for the board, Ibaka screams at the ref and can be heard saying "you haven't done anything" to Carmelo Anthony, the guy who just boxed him out and had torn their team up all game. He put up a ton of numbers vs. Malik Allen in the fourth quarter.

My personal opinion is that the Thunder have two wildly overrated players on their roster. Jeff Green and Ibaka. I've seen Green more and am very comfortable with what I think of him. Ibaka hasn't impressed me, but I can at least see why people think he could be a solid player when he develops. (I don't agree, but I'm certainly not right all the time)

I'm also not bashing the Thunder for a bad game. But boy, was it bad. It looked like the starting unit quit in the third quarter. To Ibaka's credit, the second string and below worked their asses off, even in the fourth quarter of a game already decided.

[Cuckoo]

I have to hope it was just a perfect storm last night, a back to back off a game that was tougher than they thought it'd be and on the road against a Denver team not too happy about dropping a spot in the standings.

Before this game, they had the best record in the NBA since January 1st, I think, so as horrible as this was, they have to not let it get in their heads. Next three are winnable games, and I sure hope this doesn't become a mental setback because boy was it bad.

[MikeVic]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Lebron is going to change his number because he wants to honor what MJ has done for the game?

Right

Didn't he come out last year and say everyone should change from #23, or was that Wade or something?

In other news (not sure if it's been posted):
Thabeet seeks boost from D-League stay - NBA - Yahoo! Sports

[TroyF]

cuckoo,

Don't worry about it. They'll be fine. It was a perfect storm. The Nuggets were pissed off to lose two in a row. They are a very good home team. They were also looking for revenge on the Thunder for the loss in OKC. Melo had an extra bounce in his step last night as well. I'm sure the Durant/Melo debate had something to do with that.

OKC is so young they haven't had a lot of quality NBA teams come gunning for them. Last night they had one.

One other thing. . . the Nuggets shifted their philosophy on Durant last night. In that, they exposed his biggest weakness. They simply layed off Westbrook, Green and any of the other outside shooters. Instead they went after him with hard doubles and triples. They switched off on him constantly. One second he'd have Afflalo in his face, the next Kenyon Martin, the next Nene and so forth. He clearly was uncomfortable with the switching and struggled to get free for open looks. (of his 9 trips to the line, 6 were on touch fouls off of three point attempts, he simply couldn't attack the basket last night)

Despite the doubles coming all night long, he had zero assists. Now, this isn't a bad thing for OKC. That's exactly what he's going to see in the playoffs. (and I fully expect it will become a first round exit this year) But it will get him ready for next year and expose him to how NBA teams will deal with him in the future. He'll work on it in the offseason and be even better next year.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Lebron is going to change his number because he wants to honor what MJ has done for the game?

Right

The move only applies if he stays in Cleveland anyways.

[whomario]

@ TroF : That´s fair. Although i still disagree on Ibaka Solid player is basically guaranteed, if he isn´t one allready.

Jason Terry going to miss games with a facial injury courtesy of Corey Brewer´s ellbow ... Don´t think it will derail them all that much with Barea and als Rodrigue Beaubois having allready shown they can step in as bench scorers. The latter had a nice performance in said Minnesota game when Kidd was out, 17 points and 4 assists in 28 minutes.

Total random observation : Shane Battier is so wasted on this Rockets team...
Such an amazing defender playing with a bunch of terrible ones without a defensive system...
He should be playing for championships in a Bruce Bowen roles (minus the cheap shots ) right about now in his career, allready 32.

Greg Oden has hinted at returning this season btw, not sure i agree with that train of thought, although it certainly would make for a nice story ...

[Subby]

Congrats to longtime FOFC and former FOBL/FOFL owner TheDawgsAreOut (aka Kevin Pelton) for getting a consulting gig for the Indiana Pacers.

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/...?articleid=966

Given my discussion of teams hiring APBRmetricians, it is with no shortage of irony that I note that I am now among them. Recently, I have been working with the Indiana Pacers. The Pacers front office has been gracious in allowing me to continue to write for Basketball Prospectus while doing some consulting for them, so for the most part you the reader will not see any impact. The exception is that, for obvious reasons, I want to avoid writing about Indiana. Bradford, who already wrote the Pacers chapter in Pro Basketball Prospectus 2009-10, should help fill in any gaps.

[RainMaker]

Saw the Grizzlies beat the Bulls last night. A game the Bulls really should have won as they were up 17 early and had the Grizz on the end of back to back games. Not having Noah kills them on the boards.

Randolph is a beast and they just couldn't stop him all night. Really surprised at how his game has developed. He has stopped taking bad shots for the most part and is just focusing on dominating in the post.

And if Thabeet couldn't beat out Hamed Haddadi for minutes, he truly sucks.

[TroyF]

Battier is wasted on the Rockets. Can you imagine if he played on the Cavs or Lakers? They'd be talking about him as a DPOY candidate.

Suns ran into the 4th in 5 nights syndrome last night. They just ran out of gas in the fourth quarter.

Dallas is going to battle Denver for the 2 seed all the way to the final days of the season.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by whomario

@ TroF : That´s fair. Although i still disagree on Ibaka Solid player is basically guaranteed, if he isn´t one allready.

You know, it's funny. I didn't watch the game, and there's always much more to what's going on then stats. But I have to admit I read Troy's take on Ibaka and assumed the guy's stats would absolutely blow.

Then I look at the box score... 15 pts, 13 boards, .500 plus shooting, a block and a steal, I think 1 or 2 TOs.

Hmm, that doesn't seem so bad. I mean, he must absolutely stink at the non-box score stuff to deserve the ripping Troy gave him if he was doing that besides.

Of course, Gooden puts up those sorts of numbers, too...

[TroyF]

Chief,

11 points and 7 rebounds came in the fourth quarter against a Nuggets lineup of Anthony Carter, JR Smith, Renaldo Balkman, Malik Allen and Johan Petro.

His numbers in quarters 1 through 3:

2-7 shooting, 4 points, 6 boards, 15 minutes.

This doesn't count how poor he was defensively. In a Camby type role, I guess he could be effective. Instead he was trying to D up Nene man to man and it was comical. He also looked lost on the perimeter.

His pure athleticism and Krstic and Green's sucking make him look better on defense than he really is. On offense? The guy is good for a few put backs, a 15 footer here or there and not much else. He actually has a negative passer rating. His hands rating? It stands at 2.2 this year. Thabeet is 2.8. Ben Wallace is a 9 for some comparison.

So when I look at his game, my eyes see a guy that is horrible on offense and mediocre on defense. When I look at his advanced stats, I see a guy who can't pass or hold onto the ball, a guy who loses his head to head matchup 60% of the time, and a guy who has a -4.8 roland rating. I looked up his standard +/- for the last five games. -12, -11, -1 (in a 20 point win for the team), +4, -7. So he's certainly not helping his team win games, they are winning in spite of him.

I know what whomario likes about him. He has +++ athleticism. He can hit the 15 foot shot if he's wide open. He makes one defensive play a quarter that gets you out of your seat. (and causes most people to miss the six plays he sucks at) He can run the floor like a deer.

I saw a wonderful athlete the other night. I didn't see a good basketball player. Again, maybe I'm wrong. I can tell you he'll need to get MUCH stronger to hang out with the big boys, he has a ridiculous amount of work to do to be anything more than a role player in any offense and he simply has to get better on defense. . . because that's where his future lies IMO.

Again, maybe I'm judging him too harshly. He is just 20 and he has time to develop. But right now, I just don't get what all the buzz is about as of now. We'll revisit this in a few years.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Hmm, that doesn't seem so bad. I mean, he must absolutely stink at the non-box score stuff .

There´s the "funny" thing : In almsot all the games (about 9 or 10) i saw he was better than the box score indicates, which is also basically the universal take on him around the web. He plays a lot of minutes with almost exclusively 2nd stringers, gets little to no time next to Krstic forcing him to act as the Center on defense, also little time with Westbrook. That hurts his RR and +- (he also plays a ton of minutes with Green)
Not a finished product, far from it. But gets better almost weekly and the jump he made from over here in Europe was massive, so for a 20 year old rookie big man the non-boxscore stuff is more than allright ...

[MikeVic]

What's a Roland rating?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by TroyF

Again, maybe I'm judging him too harshly. He is just 20 and he has time to develop. But right now, I just don't get what all the buzz is about as of now. We'll revisit this in a few years.

I think it's way too soon to pass judgment on him, and your sample size here is also way too small. Just as an uninvested observer--I don't know Ibaka from anyone (I guess I'll get to see him against the Clips tonight).

Just like with Lawson in the opposite way. Sample size way too small. It's too soon to tear Ibaka down and too soon to make Lawson a star.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

What's a Roland rating?

an attempt at measuring a players impact on his own team by the folks at 82 games (i think they came up with it, at least they used it), actually now has been expanded and renamed "simple rating", factors in the +- numbers of a team with a player and without a player, now also a players PER and his opponents PER (which can be put off be cross-matchups and doesn´t factor in switching)

another thing @ TroyF : What is "all the buzz" ? You make it sound like everybody is labeling him the next Ben Wallace or Hakeem or sth

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I think it's way too soon to pass judgment on him, and your sample size here is also way too small. Just as an uninvested observer--I don't know Ibaka from anyone (I guess I'll get to see him against the Clips tonight).

Just like with Lawson in the opposite way. Sample size way too small. It's too soon to tear Ibaka down and too soon to make Lawson a star.

I trust my eyes first.
Then I use basic numbers.
Then I use advanced numbers.

Now, if my eyes tell me a guy isn't that good, I try to go deeper. What am "I" missing? Are the other numbers good or not? In the case of Ibaka, the basic numbers made him look fairly good. Moving on to the advanced numbers it verified what my eyes told me was happening, so I make a judgment on where someone is at the current time.

Then I move to potential. What does he need to work on to be a good player and how easy is it to accomplish? His hands and passer rating are ugly for any rotation player. I think he needs to take a MONUMENTAL leap forward to be an even average offensive player. On defense, he's physically weak right now. He also doesn't appear to me to have a high IQ, which is mandatory for a top of the line NBA defensive player. (Carmelo's IQ on the defensive side of the ball is about a -5. He'll hustle on defense, but he'll never be a good defensive player)

So I look at the likelihood he'll be able to use that athleticism to develop anything. What do I get when I add it all up? A guy who really needs to take some leaps to be good.

Using the same stuff on Ty. . . my eyes tell me the Nuggets are a damned good team with him in the lineup. The basic numbers back that up. The advanced statistics show someone better than even the eyes or basic stats show. His hands and passing ratings are better than Tony Parker or Derek Rose. He wins his matchup 60% of the time. He's fourth on the team in roland rating. He hits 54% of his jump shots. His foul drawing percentage is off the charts good for someone his age.

David Thorpe studies tape and rates rookies. He currently has Ty as the third best rookie behind Evans and Curry. But when you read his tidbits, you really find out what he thinks of him.


This was his last blurb about Lawson:

How many times has a backup point guard averaged double figures in scoring while shooting 66 percent from the field and 50 percent on 3s? And with a better than 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio? Well, that's what Lawson is doing this month. Even if you factor in his January numbers, he's averaging over 10 points and shooting better than 50 percent from the field. Backup point guards, or rookie guards for that matter, just don't do that while still keeping their assist-to-turnover ratio at better than 2-to-1. Lawson has a game that is mature for his age, and he totally gets the bigger picture in Denver. The Nuggets are playing for a chance at a ring, so all personal agendas must be set aside. He's having no issues doing that.

I have full confidence Ty will be a star in this league. Not just a good player, but a flat out star. He's also monumentally important to Denver's playoff hopes.

Ibaka? Not so much.

You can challenge my thoughts, but I can assure you they are well thought out and not just with a Denver bias. I'm on record as saying OKC will win a title within the next five years. (I haven't said that about the Nuggets) I don't have a bias against Ibaka at all, I just don't think he's a good player right now.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by whomario

an attempt at measuring a players impact on his own team by the folks at 82 games (i think they came up with it, at least they used it), actually now has been expanded and renamed "simple rating", factors in the +- numbers of a team with a player and without a player, now also a players PER and his opponents PER (which can be put off be cross-matchups and doesn´t factor in switching)

another thing @ TroyF : What is "all the buzz" ? You make it sound like everybody is labeling him the next Ben Wallace or Hakeem or sth

Maybe I read too many NBA boards whomario. Some OKC fans think he's the second coming. Some fans on my nuggets boards are in love with him too.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by TroyF

I trust my eyes first.
Then I use basic numbers.
Then I use advanced numbers.

Now, if my eyes tell me a guy isn't that good, I try to go deeper. What am "I" missing? Are the other numbers good or not? In the case of Ibaka, the basic numbers made him look fairly good. Moving on to the advanced numbers it verified what my eyes told me was happening, so I make a judgment on where someone is at the current time.

Then I move to potential. What does he need to work on to be a good player and how easy is it to accomplish? His hands and passer rating are ugly for any rotation player. I think he needs to take a MONUMENTAL leap forward to be an even average offensive player. On defense, he's physically weak right now. He also doesn't appear to me to have a high IQ, which is mandatory for a top of the line NBA defensive player. (Carmelo's IQ on the defensive side of the ball is about a -5. He'll hustle on defense, but he'll never be a good defensive player)

So I look at the likelihood he'll be able to use that athleticism to develop anything. What do I get when I add it all up? A guy who really needs to take some leaps to be good.

Using the same stuff on Ty. . . my eyes tell me the Nuggets are a damned good team with him in the lineup. The basic numbers back that up. The advanced statistics show someone better than even the eyes or basic stats show. His hands and passing ratings are better than Tony Parker or Derek Rose. He wins his matchup 60% of the time. He's fourth on the team in roland rating. He hits 54% of his jump shots. His foul drawing percentage is off the charts good for someone his age.

David Thorpe studies tape and rates rookies. He currently has Ty as the third best rookie behind Evans and Curry. But when you read his tidbits, you really find out what he thinks of him.


This was his last blurb about Lawson:

How many times has a backup point guard averaged double figures in scoring while shooting 66 percent from the field and 50 percent on 3s? And with a better than 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio? Well, that's what Lawson is doing this month. Even if you factor in his January numbers, he's averaging over 10 points and shooting better than 50 percent from the field. Backup point guards, or rookie guards for that matter, just don't do that while still keeping their assist-to-turnover ratio at better than 2-to-1. Lawson has a game that is mature for his age, and he totally gets the bigger picture in Denver. The Nuggets are playing for a chance at a ring, so all personal agendas must be set aside. He's having no issues doing that.

I have full confidence Ty will be a star in this league. Not just a good player, but a flat out star. He's also monumentally important to Denver's playoff hopes.

Ibaka? Not so much.

You can challenge my thoughts, but I can assure you they are well thought out and not just with a Denver bias. I'm on record as saying OKC will win a title within the next five years. (I haven't said that about the Nuggets) I don't have a bias against Ibaka at all, I just don't think he's a good player right now.

My challenge on your thoughts on Ibaka and Lawson are not invalidated by any of the above.

Fact is, they haven't played enough for us to know. Nothing to be done about that except allow time to pass and we'll see.

You may be proven right. I don't doubt that you have seen what you have seen or the stats you put up. But we're just into the fourth month of the careers of these two, and neither are even starters.

Sorry, Troy, you don't need me to tell you this. You know we don't know enough yet for true statisitcal validity. Will these numbers hold up against first teamers? Will these numbers holdup with greater minutes? Will these numbers hold up over time?

It's too soon to be making definitive statements about any rookies in the league, not with respect to the long term in any case.

[TroyF]

Chief,

I'm sorry. I have to challenge you back. What else do you have other than what they do on the court to base them on? Hell, how do you draft someone?

You base it off what you see, what they need to work and and what their production level was in college/Europe/High School.

You make judgments off of that. I think everyone over the age of four understands that it doesn't mean you are right 100% of the time. (hell, teams won't even be right on free agents most of the time, much less 21 and under players)

What I'm saying is my opinion. I'll stand by that opinion and if I'm wrong, we'll know soon enough. But don't tell me I can't judge things based off of a small sample size. I can sure as hell judge based off of that and all professional sports teams do this everyday.

The less you see, the more chance of you being wrong. I'll bet Lawson is a star based off of what I've seen. none of us can know for sure until he's been in there a few years, but I'm pretty damned certain I know where he's headed now.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by TroyF

Chief,

I'm sorry. I have to challenge you back. What else do you have other than what they do on the court to base them on? Hell, how do you draft someone?

You base it off what you see, what they need to work and and what their production level was in college/Europe/High School.

You make judgments off of that. I think everyone over the age of four understands that it doesn't mean you are right 100% of the time. (hell, teams won't even be right on free agents most of the time, much less 21 and under players)

What I'm saying is my opinion. I'll stand by that opinion and if I'm wrong, we'll know soon enough. But don't tell me I can't judge things based off of a small sample size. I can sure as hell judge based off of that and all professional sports teams do this everyday.

The less you see, the more chance of you being wrong. I'll bet Lawson is a star based off of what I've seen. none of us can know for sure until he's been in there a few years, but I'm pretty damned certain I know where he's headed now.

You throw out all these stats and swear by them and then throw out statistical validity when it doesn't conform to your opinion? Fine then, Troy. You're right. Judge away.

Get back to me in a couple seasons when these kids are starting and when we know more.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

You throw out all these stats and swear by them and then throw out statistical validity when it doesn't conform to your opinion? Fine then, Troy. You're right. Judge away.

Get back to me in a couple seasons when these kids are starting and when we know more.

I'm trying to figure out the anger here. I put a lot of thought into my opinions, right or wrong. I use both my eyes and stats to back up my thoughts. I explain why "I" think the way I do. It's up to others to interpret that however they see fit.

I think Blake Griffin and John Wall are going to be NBA stars and I haven't seen them play a single second of NBA basketball. I think most people had an idea Pedro Martinez was going to be a special player by his fourth Dodger relief appearance. Did anyone know if it would by terrific middle reliever great, closer great, All Star great, Cy Young great or Hall of Fame great? Of course not, but based off of what people saw with their eyes and what basic and advanced statistical analysis told them. They didn't need 2 full seasons before they knew he could pitch.

I don't assume that my opinion is the only one, that I'm always right, that a guy like Ibaka won't be able to change my assessment of him. I simply make the calls like I see them. In the cases of Ibaka and Lawson the advanced stats back up my assertions. I'm not cherry picking. I've said we'll wait a couple of years and see if I'm right. I've said Ibaka could make me change my mind, but when asked to explain why I had problems with him I gave what I thought was a fairly measured response.

I'm still baffled at why it's so wrong to rate how a young player is now and try and make a prediction on their future based off of that. We all do this everyday with players we see. There is nothing wrong with a difference of opinion either. Example: I'm sure whomario will think differently about the list I have below (whomario is a guy I really respect when it comes to basketball evaluation even if he is wrong on Darko)

Other players I really like - Jerbaka, Evans, Curry (he's going to be special), Collison (a much better shot than I thought he had), Harden (struggling a little, but I like his overall game) Rodrigue Beaubois

Young guys I don't like that much - Ibaka, Flynn, Gerald Henderson (seriously, he went 6 spots ahead of Lawson. Good lord), Demarre Carrol.

Guys who I think are going to be a lot better in a couple of years - Thabeet, Jrue Holliday, Jodie Meeks

Guys who I just can't get a read on right now - Thornton, Casspi, Buddinger, Teague, Daye.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by TroyF

I'm trying to figure out the anger here. I put a lot of thought into my opinions, right or wrong. I use both my eyes and stats to back up my thoughts. I explain why "I" think the way I do. It's up to others to interpret that however they see fit.

I think Blake Griffin and John Wall are going to be NBA stars and I haven't seen them play a single second of NBA basketball. I think most people had an idea Pedro Martinez was going to be a special player by his fourth Dodger relief appearance. Did anyone know if it would by terrific middle reliever great, closer great, All Star great, Cy Young great or Hall of Fame great? Of course not, but based off of what people saw with their eyes and what basic and advanced statistical analysis told them. They didn't need 2 full seasons before they knew he could pitch.

I don't assume that my opinion is the only one, that I'm always right, that a guy like Ibaka won't be able to change my assessment of him. I simply make the calls like I see them. In the cases of Ibaka and Lawson the advanced stats back up my assertions. I'm not cherry picking. I've said we'll wait a couple of years and see if I'm right. I've said Ibaka could make me change my mind, but when asked to explain why I had problems with him I gave what I thought was a fairly measured response.

I'm still baffled at why it's so wrong to rate how a young player is now and try and make a prediction on their future based off of that. We all do this everyday with players we see. There is nothing wrong with a difference of opinion either. Example: I'm sure whomario will think differently about the list I have below (whomario is a guy I really respect when it comes to basketball evaluation even if he is wrong on Darko)

Other players I really like - Jerbaka, Evans, Curry (he's going to be special), Collison (a much better shot than I thought he had), Harden (struggling a little, but I like his overall game) Rodrigue Beaubois

Young guys I don't like that much - Ibaka, Flynn, Gerald Henderson (seriously, he went 6 spots ahead of Lawson. Good lord), Demarre Carrol.

Guys who I think are going to be a lot better in a couple of years - Thabeet, Jrue Holliday, Jodie Meeks

Guys who I just can't get a read on right now - Thornton, Casspi, Buddinger, Teague, Daye.

Don't misread tone. Only one who might be angry here is you. Remember, you were the one telling me not to tell you can't judge. There's no anger on this end, just pointing out that the basis for your argument lacks statistical validity, especially given with how strongly you are espousing your opinions on the subject. You're not even qualifying them or allowing for them to be wrong.

There's a difference between guys like Griffin/Wall and Lawson/Ibaka. Griffin and Wall have pretty much been acknowledged far and wide by media, scouts, people in the biz, etc. as being legit stars in the making. Lawson and Ibaka are just two young guys who had some positive, some negative reviews prior to this season. There was no consensus on what they would do in the pros, like what people have said about Griffin and Wall.

I think my main problem with your stance is that you don't seem to even allow for the possibility that you could be wrong. When there is this little to support it, it's common to at least qualify it, "I could be wrong", or "from what I have seen so far, I think..." sorta thing. But it sounds like you're ready to go to Vegas and drop a dime on the future awesomeness of Lawson and the crapitude of Ibaka (were that possible).

I'm merely offering a more cautious opinion, as someone without a dog in the fight. I am not even saying you're wrong; I'm just saying you're jumping too conclusions too quickly. If you don't like that someone can have that opinion of your judgment, well, don't post it on the Internet then.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Don't misread tone. Only one who might be angry here is you. Remember, you were the one telling me not to tell you can't judge. There's no anger on this end, just pointing out that the basis for your argument lacks statistical validity, especially given with how strongly you are espousing your opinions on the subject. You're not even qualifying them or allowing for them to be wrong.

There's a difference between guys like Griffin/Wall and Lawson/Ibaka. Griffin and Wall have pretty much been acknowledged far and wide by media, scouts, people in the biz, etc. as being legit stars in the making. Lawson and Ibaka are just two young guys who had some positive, some negative reviews prior to this season. There was no consensus on what they would do in the pros, like what people have said about Griffin and Wall.

I think my main problem with your stance is that you don't seem to even allow for the possibility that you could be wrong. When there is this little to support it, it's common to at least qualify it, "I could be wrong", or "from what I have seen so far, I think..." sorta thing. But it sounds like you're ready to go to Vegas and drop a dime on the future awesomeness of Lawson and the crapitude of Ibaka (were that possible).

I'm merely offering a more cautious opinion, as someone without a dog in the fight. I am not even saying you're wrong; I'm just saying you're jumping too conclusions too quickly. If you don't like that someone can have that opinion of your judgment, well, don't post it on the Internet then.

In my first post about Ibaka I said "maybe I'm wrong" I'm not sure what clarification needs to be said. (I guess I could add a sig that says "my opinions on young players are mine and mine alone, maybe that would work?)

After the time I spend viewing and analyzing individual players, I am fairly comfortable with my reads on them. I'd go to Vegas and lay money that barring injury (which is the same for everyone) Lawson will be a star. I've seen enough to know this. Yes, he only plays 20 minutes a night because the Nuggets have Chauncey, but that hurts him in as much as it helps him. (FWIW, he's started twice against Deron this year and averaged 24 points a game on 17-27 shooting)

I'm VERY confident of his talents. Ibaka? I'd lay money he won't be an all star, but I wouldn't go further than that at this point. I personally don't even think he'll be a solid role player, but I can see how he could improve in areas, be utilized better and maybe he could get there. (there are people who would argue he's a solid role player now. . . I'm just not one of those)

FWIW - I really don't give a damn about the consensus either. I didn't understand Flynn going ahead of Lawson on draft day and nothing has changed my mind on that. Then again. . . to be fair, I really thought Jordan Farmer was going to be stud by now and he's fizzled into a backup PG. I wasn't nearly as sure about him as Lawson though. I'd go to Vegas and bet money on that guy. If I'm wrong, so be it. I don't think I am.

[Neon_Chaos]

Rodney Stuckey collapsed on the Pistons bench in their game against Cleveland. He was just stretchered out.

The video replays show Stuckey as being alright walking to the bench. Moments later, he looked like he was having a heart attack or something

Update: It's a seizure, says ESPN right now. The game is on hold, I believe.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos

Rodney Stuckey collapsed on the Pistons bench in their game against Cleveland. He was just stretchered out.

The video replays show Stuckey as being alright walking to the bench. Moments later, he looked like he was having a heart attack or something

Update: It's a seizure, says ESPN right now. The game is on hold, I believe.

That was scary given the anniversary of Hank Gaithers' death yesterday.

[MrBug708]

Lakers are having some serious in house issues right now. From the succession of Jerry Buss to Shannon Brown pouting

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Lakers are having some serious in house issues right now. From the succession of Jerry Buss to Shannon Brown pouting

I was looking at it last night and I'm going to be fascinated by how LA finishes up the season and heads into the playoffs. They have 19 games left. Due to the early home schedule, 12 of those 19 games are going to be played on the road. We aren't talking "easy" road games either. Look at this little schedule at the end of March into early April:

@Spurs, @Thunder, @Rockets (b2b), @New Orleans, @Atlanta, vs. Utah, vs. San Antonio, @Denver, @Minnesota (b2b)

If Denver goes on a run (which they should do over the next ten games with their schedule) and Dallas stays hot, the Lakers may be fighting for their #1 seed down the stretch. This is something that seemed unimaginable a couple of weeks ago. They will likely keep the tie break over Dallas (they split the season series and have a 5 game lead vs. conference opponents) Denver gets the Lakers at home and a win in that game will give the Nuggets the tie break over the Lakers.

I don't think the Lakers will lose the #1 seed, but I think it benefits Dallas and Denver to put as much pressure on the Lake show as they can so they don't get 2 weeks off before the postseason.

Denver and Dallas have split two games this year. They'll play in Dallas later this month to determine who wins that tiebreaker. Dallas will have a huge advantage in that game. Denver will be playing a b2b flying in from Orlando. The Mavs will be rested. I fully expect Dallas to get that tie break.

[TroyF]

Oh, and the Stuckey situation was just scary. I've had seizures and for both the person involved and friends and family, it is a helpless feeling to go through. I hope they find out what happened and he comes out of this ok.

[Neuqua]

[Big Fo]

Gotta laugh at Gasol trying to act hard, a clear flagrant foul on Howard.

What a bullshit call on that Pietrus alley-oop right after though.

[Big Fo]

Good win by Orlando.

I just shake my head at some of the "fouls" Howard gets called for, him having five fouls and needing to be cautious defensively late on are a big part of why the Lakers could make their comeback in the fourth.

[whomario]

@ TroF : I will respond on that list a little later

Beaubois with a monster 3rd quarter against the Bulls on Saturday (scored like 18 or 20 points there)

that was a damn sloppy game in Orlando ... Kobe Bryant is still an egomanic chucker ... Just every once in a while another player should get the ball in the last 2 minutes, just thinking outside the box here
Howard gets called for ridiculous fouls, then again he also gets away with a ton on the offensive end and when positioning for rebounds.

Barnes played a great game. Yeah, could have been ejected, but still an inspired game.
Ron Artest was atrocious, played like he looked with that ridiculous rodman-like haircut ...

Gortat with the polish hammer on Odom

Jeol Przybilla ruptures his patella tendon all over while slipping in the shower, fuck ... Might not be back all of next season ...

Houston can basically kiss the playoffs goodbye now, lost to Detroit in OT

[TroyF]

Kobe could/should have got ejected along with Barnes. He threw an elbow after a Barnes dunk. Not a nasty one, but he threw it none the less.

I understand Howard gets away with some ridiculous fouls on the glass, but I wish to hell the refs would call those rather than the types of BS fouls he got in the second half yesterday. The Lakers have the "bump into a guy and throw your hands all over the place" fouls figured out. Artest last week against Melo. Gasol two times against Howard. Ridiculous.

I don't understand what Orlando has to do to get some respect from the national media. The announcers on the game yesterday babbling about how Orlando wasn't better than Cleveland last year and shouldn't be considered a championship contender this year. WTF are they watching? Orlando was a better team than Cleveland last year. It was decided on the court. And they are going to be a bitch to take out this year too. They are deep, they are tall, they play D, they hit threes. . . I don't care who you are, Orlando isn't going to be an easy out this year.

Carmelo with a huge night for the ailing Nuggets. George Karl to have surgery today to insert a feeding tube in his throat. Kenyon Martin will find out if he can play again this season (if he can't, Denver's title hopes are gone) Ty Lawson should be back this week sometime. When Melo hits the 18 foot jumper, he is simply impossible to stop.

I wrote about this yesterday, but the Lakers are now in a dogfight for the #1 seed. 3 games up in the loss column on both the Nuggets and Mavericks.

They play Toronto at home and then at Phoenix. Then they get 4 gimmees (Warriors, Kings, TWolves, Wizards)

After that, the rough stretch begins. As for the Nuggets, this week is critical. They go on a four game road trip (Wolves, Hornets, Grizzlies, Rockets) They follow that up with three winnable home games and a game at the Knicks. Why is that stretch of six important?

It leads into @Boston, @Toronto, @Orlando @Dallas (B2B)

If they don't take care of their next six games, there won't be a one or two seed to fight for.

[DaddyTorgo]

Nuggets will smoke the Celtics.

[sterlingice]

(FYI: For those of us reading but not really contributing, the thread this year has been so much better than any other that I can remember in the past with some great back and forth. Keep up the good work!)

SI

[whomario]

interesting little summary on the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Boston last weekend : Basketball-Reference.com Blog » Blog Archive » Thoughts On the 2010 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

[TroyF]

Interesting article. Basketball has come a lot further with advanced stats, but the chemistry factor will always be the most difficult to figure out. +/- and adjusted +/- are terrific, but only if you are smart enough to read through the noise and look at other factors. With a baseball player, it's fairly easy to look at the pure stats and advanced numbers and make a call as to how good a player really is.

In basketball and football they aren't quite there yet. It tells you part of the story, but you need to take into account what your eyes tell you, their basic numbers and the "overall" team numbers while the particular player is in the game. (shooting percentages, times to the line, times per 100 possessions the ball is turned over with them in the game, etc.)

All in all, fun read.

[DaddyTorgo]

i liked the article from last year or whatever where it talked about the rockets evaluation of battier vs. kobe and it talked about looking at how often he forced him into shots from the part of the floor, or the type of shot that the rockets had statistically figured out was kobe's weakest.

that's the kind of advanced stats that can really tell you a lot about basketball.

[TroyF]

Kenyon Martin will be undergoing PRP treatments and will play again this season. (no timetable currently set) What is PRP? I had to look it up, here is the article explaining it:


Two of the Pittsburgh Steelers’ biggest stars, Hines Ward and Troy Polamalu, used their own blood in an innovative injury treatment before winning the Super Bowl. At least one major league pitcher, about 20 professional soccer players and perhaps hundreds of recreational athletes have also undergone the procedure, commonly called platelet-rich plasma therapy.

Experts in sports medicine say that if the technique’s early promise is fulfilled, it could eventually improve the treatment of stubborn injuries like tennis elbow and knee tendinitis for athletes of all types.

The method, which is strikingly straightforward and easy to perform, centers on injecting portions of a patient’s blood directly into the injured area, which catalyzes the body’s instincts to repair muscle, bone and other tissue. Most enticing, many doctors said, is that the technique appears to help regenerate ligament and tendon fibers, which could shorten rehabilitation time and possibly obviate surgery.

Research into the effects of platelet-rich plasma therapy has accelerated in recent months, with most doctors cautioning that more rigorous studies are necessary before the therapy can emerge as scientifically proven. But many researchers suspect that the procedure could become an increasingly attractive course of treatment for reasons medical and financial.

“It’s a better option for problems that don’t have a great solution — it’s nonsurgical and uses the body’s own cells to help it heal,” said Dr. Allan Mishra, an assistant professor of orthopedics at Stanford University Medical Center and one of the primary researchers in the field. “I think it’s fair to say that platelet-rich plasma has the potential to revolutionize not just sports medicine but all of orthopedics. It needs a lot more study, but we are obligated to pursue this.”

Dr. Neal ElAttrache, the Los Angeles Dodgers’ team physician, used platelet-rich plasma therapy in July on a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament in the throwing elbow of pitcher Takashi Saito. Surgery would have ended Mr. Saito’s season and shelved him for about 10 to 14 months; he instead returned to pitch in the September pennant race without pain.

Dr. ElAttrache said he could not be certain that the procedure caused the pitcher’s recovery — about 25 percent of such cases heal on their own, he said — but it was another encouraging sign for the nascent technique, which doctors in the field said could help not just injuries to professional athletes but the tendinitis and similar ailments found in the general population.

“For the last several decades, we’ve been working on the mechanical effects of healing — the strongest suture constructs, can we put strong anchors in?” Dr. ElAttrache said. “But we’ve never been able to modulate the biology of healing. This is addressing that issue. It deserves a lot more study before we can say that it works with proper definitiveness. The word I would use is promising.”

Platelet-rich plasma is derived by placing a small amount of the patient’s blood in a filtration system or centrifuge that rotates at high speed, separating red blood cells from the platelets that release proteins and other particles involved in the body’s self-healing process, doctors said. A teaspoon or two of the remaining substance is then injected into the damaged area. The high concentration of platelets — from 3 to 10 times that of normal blood — often catalyzes the growth of new soft-tissue or bone cells. Because the substance is injected where blood would rarely go otherwise, it can deliver the healing instincts of platelets without triggering the clotting response for which platelets are typically known.

“This could be a method to stimulate wound healing in areas that are not well-vascularized, like ligaments and tendons,” said Dr. Gerjo van Osch, a researcher in the department of orthopedics at Erasmus University Medical Center in the Netherlands. “I call it a growth-factor cocktail — that’s how I explain it.”

Dr. van Osch and several other experts said they had used the procedure as a first option before surgery for reasons beyond its early results. There is little chance for rejection or allergic reaction because the substance is autologous, meaning it comes from the patient’s own body; the injection carries far less chance for infection than an incision and leaves no scar, and it takes only about 20 minutes, with a considerably shorter recovery time than after surgery.

Because of those apparent benefits, the consensus among doctors is that the procedure is worth pursuing. However, several doctors emphasized that platelet-rich plasma therapy as it stands now appeared ineffective in about 20 to 40 percent of cases, depending on the injury. But they added that because the procedure costs about $2,000 — compared with $10,000 to $15,000 for surgery — they expected that with more refinement, insurance companies would eventually not only authorize the use of PRP therapy but even require it as a first course of treatment.

[Scoobz0202]

Cavs-Spurs game really close. Cavs down one with a few minutes left. The interesting thing tidbit:

- Lebron is out for the second straight game due to his ankle. They lost the other day to the Bucks. Dating back to 2007, the Cavs have lost ten straight games when Lebron is not in the lineup. Can they break the streak????

[Mantle2600]

Originally Posted by Scoobz0202

Cavs-Spurs game really close. Cavs down one with a few minutes left. The interesting thing tidbit:

- Lebron is out for the second straight game due to his ankle. They lost the other day to the Bucks. Dating back to 2007, the Cavs have lost ten straight games when Lebron is not in the lineup. Can they break the streak????

yes

[Scoobz0202]

Yay!