werewolf LIV! Terror at the country club (GAME OVER WOLVES WIN)

[path12]

Originally Posted by RendeR

None, he's so under the radar he might as well not be playing.

is that suspicious? probably should be, do I have any evidence to vote for him on? nope.

A new player might be counciled to lay low by other wolves and could skate for a long time. Same thing goes for Arlington Colt. We may need to take a closer look at that soon.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by path12

A new player might be counciled to lay low by other wolves and could skate for a long time. Same thing goes for Arlington Colt. We may need to take a closer look at that soon.

True that.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

This is what is making me think that there could still be a Goth out there after all. I feel good about my vote and think that one of the two veterans could still be a goth just looking at the attenion being drummed up by the discussion.

This doesn't make sense to me. The Goth doesn't want to be lynched, he wants to be a night target. So assuming a public profile that puts you in position to get lynched seems like a poor Goth play.

The night plays have been very by the numbers - taking out our roled players, destroying our circle of trust. The only one that does not fit that profile is Alan on Night 2.

[hoopsguy]

OK, looks like I've missed very little so far today.

We are starting to get into the "do or die" mode for the game with 13 players left. I would expect we have somewhere between 1-3 misses left before this one is over, depending on if items ever come into play and the number of starting wolves.

I would really like to see some movement towards trust lists, as well as reasoning for them, at this point. Let's see if we can start getting some people to take a position on players - we have 1250+ posts and four days of play behind us now.

[oliegirl]

I've been reading and re-reading most of the day and am still totally stumped on who the wolves are.

What is the status on RendeR? Has anyone "cleared" him or put him in their COT?

[hoopsguy]

One of the challenges I'm having this game is trying to place people on positions. I'll give an example of what I think is a fair summary on me this game.

1. Believes that there is meaning to be found in Day 1 vote - instinct today is to vote between Cronin and Path because of this
2. Of the remaining players left, have most trust for Crim due to Neon's play on Day 1, followed by Oliegirl
3. Tend to believe that Eaglefan and RendeR are slightly more likely than the norm to be good guys
4. Outside of the Day 1 votes, most concerned with Pass, Purdue, and Raiders (not necessarily in that order)
5. Agree that we need to determine a course of action for Arlington and DNA - would encourage both to post their thoughts ASAP to help us all with that decision

[hoopsguy]

Olie, it would be a pretty ballsy play for RendeR, as a wolf, to stab another player and own up to it. Particularly if they felt good about their chances of getting Barkeep in a vote in the next 1-2 days. There was no seer who was going to come and clear Barkeep. Barkeep had put himself out on an island with his defense of Neon, and drawn criticism for it.

If I'm a wolf with the knife, playing it that way would not be my first instinct. If he has done exactly that, kudos to him as he has escaped much pressure from me for days now as a result of that action.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

One of the challenges I'm having this game is trying to place people on positions. I'll give an example of what I think is a fair summary on me this game.

1. Believes that there is meaning to be found in Day 1 vote - instinct today is to vote between Cronin and Path because of this
2. Of the remaining players left, have most trust for Crim due to Neon's play on Day 1, followed by Oliegirl
3. Tend to believe that Eaglefan and RendeR are slightly more likely than the norm to be good guys
4. Outside of the Day 1 votes, most concerned with Pass, Purdue, and Raiders (not necessarily in that order)
5. Agree that we need to determine a course of action for Arlington and DNA - would encourage both to post their thoughts ASAP to help us all with that decision

I would love if people would put out their own self-assessments or else come after mine and suggest where their own interpretation of my play doesn't match up with this. I'm hoping to get some different conversation going that what we've had up to this point, one way or another.

[PurdueBrad]

Currently, I am only trusting of Hoopsguy and Olliegirl. I may be able to post more later but we'll see, I teach at Northern Illinois University this afternoon/evening.

[PurdueBrad]

Actually, briefly, I'll post my thoughts.

Hoopsguy was exceptionally helpful as a villager my previous game, always at the forefront. He got converted late which threw things off but up until that point, his play was very similar.

Olliegirl, the only thing I have to go on is that she has the tool and a bit of her voting record. She has played a solid but low key game (not sure why I'm not faulting her this as I do Mr. DNA, but hey).

As for myself, I've explained my weird move (voting for Daddy Torgo night three as a safe vote) and my current thoughts are that St. Cronin is the Goth and that Crim is a wolf. I understand what you are saying Hoops about the Goth play wanting to get night actioned and I think that is what is going on here because Cronin was not going to beat Bug last night, as far as I had read it. So it wouldn't be a move to get lynch attention but maybe wolf attention if he assumed that Chief Rum was a wolf.

Anyway, that is where I'm at. Things I would like to see:

1- I agree, Eaglesfan is probably good. I don't fault his votes on me because he can at least back it up with some reasoning.

2- I would like to hear more from Mr. DNA and I guess Arlington as some have pointed out. (I'll have to look at their votes)

3- I would like to hear more about why Crim was so pro-lynching Mr. Bug.

4- I would like to hear more from St. Cronin on why he defended Crim over the bad lynch of Mr. Bug.

5- The RendeR killing Barkeep thing is getting some play and there could be something there but it would've been a huge gamble I think. Beginning to wonder anyway, no matter what, why take that chance and kill somebody that likely would've been lynched the next day but that is just me.

[oliegirl]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Olie, it would be a pretty ballsy play for RendeR, as a wolf, to stab another player and own up to it. Particularly if they felt good about their chances of getting Barkeep in a vote in the next 1-2 days. There was no seer who was going to come and clear Barkeep. Barkeep had put himself out on an island with his defense of Neon, and drawn criticism for it.

If I'm a wolf with the knife, playing it that way would not be my first instinct. If he has done exactly that, kudos to him as he has escaped much pressure from me for days now as a result of that action.

Could RendeR be the Goth? He wants to be a wolf, so he brutally kills someone? Just a thought, totally grasping at straws to try and make heads or tails of all this...

[hoopsguy]

Olie, if so the wolves are taking their sweet time getting to him Seriously, I think there would be concern about retribution for the "bad kill", or "early kill", or "rash action" ... however people wanted to paint it to get him lynched after he 'fessed up.

I'll reiterate my earlier point - if he has made that kind of play, I'm impressed.

[Lathum]

crim sent me a PM saying he would be out for the day and asked if I could place his vote for him. Ordinarily I wouldn't allow it but since it is his first game I am willing to give him so leeway.

Unless anyone objects in the next short while I will post his vote.

[hoopsguy]

No objection.

Until I see who it is for, of course

[oliegirl]

I'm fine with it

[Lathum]

In the voice of crim

VOTE St.CRONIN

[st.cronin]

I object.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I object.

lol

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, what do you think is the right strategy for the vote today? Take your best shot at who you think is a wolf? Look for some sample set where a wolf is likely to lie? Random number generator?

Do you think my approach of thinking there was a vote on RPI Day 1 is fundamentally flawed? If not, then is that part of the basis in you voting for me? Continuing down that road, why me instead of Path?

I'm dying to get some conversation going in this game because without it we are almost assured of losing this game.

[st.cronin]

Hoops, I only have a few minutes, but I'll try to summarize my thoughts:

When the seer goes out on day 1, the winning strategy for the wolves is to stay away from all discussion. Just stay out of the way. The following players (at least) have done that: Raiders Army, Mr. Dna, Path12, Arlington Colt, EagleFan, PurdueBrad.

Of those, Raiders Army has hinted at having an item. So I would suggest voting him is doing the wolves work.

Then there is what's eating at me, which is "how are Chief Rum and hoopsguy both still alive." These are two players who very few wolves would leave alone for the first five days - as villagers, both tend to scare most wolves. But both are still alive. Additionally, it seems to me that both have played slightly different games than in the past - its hard for me to pin down what's different, exactly, but both of you ring a little false for me. Chief Rum's analysis of day 1 I believe IS fundamentally flawed, which I won't rehash, but I would certainly expect him to also put forward what it means if he's wrong - which he hasn't been willing to do.

My suspicion of you is identical to the suspicion I had of Barkeep before he was night killed - it just seems to me that even if you're not a wolf, you're doing their work for them.

Who I trust: Render, Raiders Army, oliegirl, possibly Crim.

[hoopsguy]

Interesting - I have Raiders Army as one of my most distrusted at this point in the game but agree largely with the rest of your list.

You raise a point about me/Rum that I've shied away from making for a reason. Up to this point, I've understood the kills that the wolves have made each and every night.

Night 1 - don't know, as no one disappeared. Speculation is on Neon, the self-confessed Seer, but if not him then who?

Night 2 - Alan T. Solid villager, threat to wolves, actively involved in the game at this point

Night 3 - bodyguard (confessed and now proven)

Night 4 - duke (proven in life and death)

You believe that Neon was the Goth and was converted Night 1. Push comes to shove, I think the same thing, but I'm not sure that makes a huge difference when interpreting the votes as the wolves would attempt to look like villagers by clearing away from the "seer" while sharpening their steak knives for dinner as soon as possible.

With that in mind, when should the wolves have come calling for me and/or Chief? I agree that every passing day going forward will have me asking this question about Chief a little bit louder, and I suspect the reverse is true.

[hoopsguy]

Also, the wolves haven't had the opportunity to carry out Night 5 yet, so it is only four days at this point. Not a huge difference in your overall point, but it is significant given the Night kills to date.

[st.cronin]

Hoops, I don't remember what day it was but RA said somebody gave him an item at one point. I have a fairly good guess who gave it to him, and that person has not yet voted for RA, which to me means that RA possibly gave it back. So to me there's a little 2 person circle of trust there. I have a couple of other thoughts about that exchange that I'll keep to myself for now, but that's why I trust RA, maybe it doesn't mean much, but there it is.

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, what are your thoughts on my thought process on the landing spots for Day 1 votes? Is it a tragically flawed approach in your opinion, or is it a sound idea that unfortunately places you in the crossfire (with Path)? If that rationale sucks in your mind, then what is a better approach for today? Go after the quiet guys, given your statement at the top of Post #1270? If so, why vote me?

I'm trying to connect the dots here. I can understand you being unnerved by me casting the vote on you yesterday, but I thought you were more likely than MrBug to be a wolf. And Path wasn't going to have a chance of winning when he was four votes behind the leader.

[path12]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

When the seer goes out on day 1, the winning strategy for the wolves is to stay away from all discussion. Just stay out of the way. The following players (at least) have done that: Raiders Army, Mr. Dna, Path12, Arlington Colt, EagleFan, PurdueBrad.

Here we go again. 9th in posts, maybe somewhat quieter than usual but not a ton.....and I was out this weekend.

[oliegirl]

Does anyone have a vote count? I'm at work for 20 minutes and would like to vote before I leave, but don't have the time to go back through posts...help?

[EagleFan]

My breakdown of the living.

1. Purduebrad - Have backed off from a bit as my initial reaction may have been a newbie reaction to his enthusiasm.
2. RenderR - Actually trust him a little with the thwory of why would a wolf knife a villager and then tell us (but isn't that the whole theme of this so far with Neon's fake reveal).
3. Crim - No feel one way or the other at this point (I really suck at this game I guess).
4. Chief Rum - After the Mr. Bug lynching I now really question him. - CoD
5. St.Cronin - Either Mr.Bug or the saint is a WW and we know the Mr.Bug result. - CoD
10. Oliegirl - Has not really stood out, but that could be a wolf ploy.
11. Mr.DNA - ???
12. Eaglefan - I would never trust this guy ("Never believe I won't turn on you..." - that about sums up this game right?) Extra credit for naming the quote.
13. Passacaglia - No read
14. Path12 - No read
17. Raiders Army - He suspected me early and voted me but now lists me in his circle of trust. As odd as that sounds, that actually makes me question him as I don't really know if I have done anything to earn trust since I have played poorly (more on that later).
20. Hoopsguy - Voted him for what turned out to be no reason on day one as I did not quite understand how some things worked and hoped it would clear my name.
21. Arlington Colt - ???


I think I have screwed up with the use of an item as I was going to barricade RendeR (on nothing more than an odd feeling) the night he ended up killing one of our own but really had no idea how the object use would come into play so I didn't.

[EagleFan]

dola: the bolded names don't mean anything as I was going to bold all the names and didn't get them all, obviously, and can't get them with an edit as I already screwed up once on day one with an edit for grammar.

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

One of the challenges I'm having this game is trying to place people on positions. I'll give an example of what I think is a fair summary on me this game.

1. Believes that there is meaning to be found in Day 1 vote - instinct today is to vote between Cronin and Path because of this

I gave my thoughts on this earlier, I don't hold a lot of faith in the day 1 vote myself. It was the right move to switch off of Neon after he revealed, or go for the next leading votegetter. Nobody except RPI knew differently and he didn't say anything, and the wolves wouldn't know if Neon was seer, Goth or villager. As for whether or not the wolves jumped to RPI, I have no idea. If so, it must have been Cronin or yourself (if you were on RPI) because I know it wasn't me.

2. Of the remaining players left, have most trust for Crim due to Neon's play on Day 1, followed by Oliegirl

I agree on Crim, I have him as likely to be trusted. I'm neutral on Oliegirl.

3. Tend to believe that Eaglefan and RendeR are slightly more likely than the norm to be good guys

Not sure why. I think RendeR is the kind of player who would be ballsy enough to use the knife as a wolf and come out with it. I'd like to see your reasoning on Eaglefan.

4. Outside of the Day 1 votes, most concerned with Pass, Purdue, and Raiders (not necessarily in that order)

I agree with Purdue and Raiders, and voted for Purdue the other day to try and swing a run his way. He strikes me like he's trying to play the helpful villager role but it seems a little forced from where I sit. I haven't gotten much of a bad vibe off Pass though...[/quote]

5. Agree that we need to determine a course of action for Arlington and DNA - would encourage both to post their thoughts ASAP to help us all with that decision

We've gone the gamut lately from jumping all over quiet folks to ignoring them. I think we do that at our peril, especially if we have 3-4 wolves still out there. The only problem is that we are starting to get somewhat short on time and can't really afford to shoot in the dark.

[hoopsguy]

I think the "ignoring" on the quiet guys is more about not whacking a 1st/2nd time player on Day 1. Day 2 = Neon.

Day 3 - Telle caught some heat for being more quiet, but we had a duking.

Day 4 - this is the day where we needed to decide on a strategy to pursue, in my opinion. Seeing as how I had two of my three candidates who voted for RPI in the final pairing, I guess I should have been happy with how the group went. But I voted for you because I thought you were the most likely to be a wolf.

Path, I know it is asking a fair amount for you to "dazzle us with your brilliance" but I'm really struggling to see you taking a position this game. I would really like to see you put together a post like I did in #1256 that states what you believe to be true in this game.

[Raiders Army]

back home from work. At this point, I'm just getting a gut feeling there's something between Eaglefan and hoops. I don't know why hoops is still alive.

Also, I didn't hint at having an item; I said it outright. I passed a serving tray to someone last night.

At this point, I'm leaning towards hoops. I don't know why the wolves wouldn't target him if he is a villager. Then again, he seems to be doing their work (maybe unintentionally) and that's why they've left him alone. Then again again, he may be doing their work intentionally because he is a wolf.

VOTE HOOPSGUY

I thought for sure MrBug was a wolf based upon his responses to Crim.

[Chief Rum]

Hmm, so I was right about Bug. He looked the worst yesterday, but I just had a sense from his posts that he really was just confused returning to the game after being out of it, and that his mistakes were just from that, not from trying to lay off any wolfish tendencies.

And for all of our issues yesterday, I still have a lot of trouble seeing cronin as a wolf. This is why I voted for Render, as some have questioned. You might see it as a throwaway--I see it as voting for the most likely to be a wolf.

Speaking of which, I agree completely with path's read on render and his style, and I am mystified that no one else sees this. From the first game he joined up, Render has been aggressive and active. And in case anyone ahs failed to notice, he also tends to be aggressive and active in general, too. It's his style, his personality, whatever. If you have any doubts, tell him the Sabres didn't deserve to get to the Eastern Conference Finals last year, and then run and hide as fast as possible.

Point is, I see him as exactly the kind of wolf who would make the ballsy move of killing a villager with his knife, and fessing up to it for trust.

Perhaps my instincts are wrong, I don't know. But that's what I have thought ever since he came out about killing Barkeep.

As for hoops, cronin and myself, I get this funny feeling we're all good and arguing different sides of things. We see things completely differently and have rooted into place on our convictions, suspicious of the others. Meanwhile, we draw attention away from the actual wolves, because everyone's watching us and wondering what we're doing.

Personally, I would like to offer up to both hoops and cronin that we work together and we vote together. We find the two best candidates, we make our vote, and whoever has the "one" vote (if we don't agree) switches to the other to make three.

Unfortunately, as I offer this up, I am about to leave and go to work. I won't be back before the deadline. So if you guys wanted to do that, I won't be around to change my vote. But I would welcome feedback on this, if you both feel liek I do, that we're all good and arguing in circles. I think our divisiveness is hurting the village and helping to hide the wolves, whom have largely gone underground.

I need to go, so here's my vote, FWIW. I'm sticking with my instincts.

VOTE RENDER

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Path, I know it is asking a fair amount for you to "dazzle us with your brilliance" but I'm really struggling to see you taking a position this game. I would really like to see you put together a post like I did in #1256 that states what you believe to be true in this game.

I think one has to be brilliant in order to dazzle, so I think you're going to end up frustrated on that. I'll try and put something together, though it is going to have to wait until I get home and mow the lawn, in other words close to deadline.

[oliegirl]

I'm about to pick Anthony up from soccer, will try to be back before deadline but cant promise anything. I'm not convinced one way or another about RendeR, but my gut is telling me not to trust him. He is an experienced player and we have a lot of new players in this game so I think its very possible that he's been a wolf in sheeps clothing along.

VOTE RENDER

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

As for hoops, cronin and myself, I get this funny feeling we're all good and arguing different sides of things. We see things completely differently and have rooted into place on our convictions, suspicious of the others. Meanwhile, we draw attention away from the actual wolves, because everyone's watching us and wondering what we're doing.

Personally, I would like to offer up to both hoops and cronin that we work together and we vote together. We find the two best candidates, we make our vote, and whoever has the "one" vote (if we don't agree) switches to the other to make three.

I certainly see that its possible that the wolves are just sitting back laughing at the villager-on-villager violence. Anyway, you just voted for the guy I trust the most so I'm not sure we're going to be on board anytime soon.

[st.cronin]

Man, I have a bad feeling about this vote. I'm just not seeing what you guys are seeing on Render.

[hoopsguy]

I'm going to put my vote where I think it belongs today - on Path. I will most definitely be changing it to save myself if needed, but for now I'll place it where I'm most suspicious due to their play and the Day 1 scenario I've been pursuing for a couple of days now.

VOTE PATH12

[hoopsguy]

Votes as of Post #1287:

Hoops - Cronin (1230), Raiders (1281)
Cronin - Eagle (1247), Crim (1266)
RendeR - Chief (1282), Olie (1284)
Path - Hoops (1287)
Crim - Purdue (1237)

[RendeR]

Unvote St. Cronin
Vote Chief Rum

[st.cronin]

Do I need to vote Render to keep from getting lynched? Because I'm not going to be around at deadline.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

back home from work. At this point, I'm just getting a gut feeling there's something between Eaglefan and hoops. I don't know why hoops is still alive.

Also, I didn't hint at having an item; I said it outright. I passed a serving tray to someone last night.

At this point, I'm leaning towards hoops. I don't know why the wolves wouldn't target him if he is a villager. Then again, he seems to be doing their work (maybe unintentionally) and that's why they've left him alone. Then again again, he may be doing their work intentionally because he is a wolf.

VOTE HOOPSGUY

I thought for sure MrBug was a wolf based upon his responses to Crim.

"I don't know why Hoops is still alive" - well, I don't get to make those decisions. But Post #1271 covers why I think the wolves took out the people that they have. I'm OK with getting some attention today as I think it gives me a better chance of not being chowed tonight, should I last that long.

"I passed a serving tray last night" - that proves absolutely nothing in terms of villager/wolf. The wolves can pass items to someone that they have no intention of attacking that evening. The only way that this would build trust, in my opinion, is if it helps block an attack. At that point, I would give you huge trust for passing the tray to that person.

"blah blah blah ... hoops is wrong too much this game, either wolf or dumb ... blah blah blah" - yep, I post a lot about my thought processes in the game so I tend to stick out a little when I'm wrong. And since we have one wolf and seven dead villagers, I look pretty dumb. But I think you could make this argument about most of us in this game; I would be curious to hear who you think is doing a great job of slowing them down.

"I thought MrBug was guilty" - apparently you had plenty of company. I never saw that compelling an argument for him outside of being in the wrong place with his RPI vote (least suspicious of the three players left yesterday in my mind) and thought his reactions near the end of Day 3 sounded much like a sad villager rather than a steaming wolf.

[hoopsguy]

Votes as of Post #1291:

Hoops - Cronin (1230), Raiders (1281)
Cronin - Eagle (1247), Crim (1266)
RendeR - Chief (1282), Olie (1284)
Path - Hoops (1287)
Crim - Purdue (1237)
Chief - RendeR (1289)

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Do I need to vote Render to keep from getting lynched? Because I'm not going to be around at deadline.

We still have a few people left to vote, so I don't know. But as it sits right now I would probably switch to you over RendeR if I'm forced to move.

[MrDNA]

Sorry for laying low - I hadn't anticipated my schedule vs. the time involved to actually make intelligent decisions in this game. Although, if you look at my record, you'll see I haven't worried much about my decisions being intelligent. I was pretty darn sure MrBug was a wolf and would've voted for him, had I realized there was a 9AM deadline.

Someone who is seeming helpful and trustworthy is a wolf, but I'm not good enough at this to figure out who.

Question: if I get passed an item, will it tell me WHO passed it to me?

[Lathum]

Updated vote count

Hoopsguy 2- St.Cronin (1230), RaidersArmy (1281)
St.Cronin 2- EagleFan 1 (1247), Crim (1266)
Render 2- Chiefrum (1282), Oliegirl (1284)
Path12 1- (1287)
ChiefRum 1-(1289)
Crim 1- PurdueBrad (1237)

[st.cronin]

Well, maybe this is an unconventional play, but I'm just not happy with how the vote looks, and I'm not sure what's going to happen, so...

unvote hoopsguy
vote Chief Rum

I'd rather vote with the guy I trust than for the guy I trust.

[hoopsguy]

DNA, I don't know as I haven't received an item this game.

Is there anyone out there who has received an item, and since passed it along, that feels like answering the question?

[hoopsguy]

As for hoops, cronin and myself, I get this funny feeling we're all good and arguing different sides of things. We see things completely differently and have rooted into place on our convictions, suspicious of the others. Meanwhile, we draw attention away from the actual wolves, because everyone's watching us and wondering what we're doing.

Personally, I would like to offer up to both hoops and cronin that we work together and we vote together. We find the two best candidates, we make our vote, and whoever has the "one" vote (if we don't agree) switches to the other to make three.

I would love to have all of us around near deadline to allow for this possibility. I think it would at the very least make for good conversation. I'll be around if you guys are to discuss it further.

I'm still concerned about the voting picture - as Cronin noted in his post - but more because it is so shallow that it is prone to late manipulation. We are starting to creep up on end-game and they are obviously more coordinated than we are right now.

[st.cronin]

Hoops, I'm actually thinking of joining you on path. Part self-preservation, he's not in my cot, and maybe we could get some momentum on somebody.

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, I would enjoy the company as I think he is the most likely wolf among the remaining players.

I honestly a lot less worried about being right today than us getting a wolf today. This game is pretty damn hard right now without any new info emerging. So if you think that joining me on Path is a better way to go than Rum (or others) then jump on board and let's see what happens.