WW LXVI: Money Money Money (Game Over!)

[claphamsa]

Mr W took my 9K and change I had on hand!

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

This is how I make the voting grid to date (each asterisk indicates an additional vote):

MrW published this late last night.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Not that is published in the rules, best I can tell.

Is this about to get more interesting?

Alan, bear with me, because this points at you.

Let's say clap is telling the truth AND that there is no service or ability by anyone (wolf or villager) who can rob another player except the Thief.

That means Mr. Wednesday is lying.
And since he said Mr. Wednesday is good, that means Alan is lying.
And since Alan said hoopsguy is good, technically, even that's not safe.

Unlikely, yes, but I had to throw it out there.

I am much more inclined to guess clap is lying or go after Schmidty right now than bark up this unlikely tree.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Well, that's interesting. Is there a service besides the Thief that robs?

Are you saying you got robbed also?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

Mr W took my 9K and change I had on hand!

Why didn't you say this from the start in your first post? If you knew who robbed you, why would you hide it in your first post? Heck, why wouldn't you have posted about this earlier today (and especially after Mr. Wednesdya posted)?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Alan, bear with me, because this points at you.

Let's say clap is telling the truth AND that there is no service or ability by anyone (wolf or villager) who can rob another player except the Thief.

That means Mr. Wednesday is lying.
And since he said Mr. Wednesday is good, that means Alan is lying.
And since Alan said hoopsguy is good, technically, even that's not safe.

Unlikely, yes, but I had to throw it out there.

I am much more inclined to guess clap is lying or go after Schmidty right now than bark up this unlikely tree.

I am not sure that I follow here.. What did Mr.W say that he is lying about? I missed it when I was trying to catch up.. did he say he did not rob anyone?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Are you saying you got robbed also?

Huh? No, that was in response to clap's news. Far as I know, no one has robbed me.

[Alan T]

I think Chief has confused me.. I'm going to go back to see who Mr.W said he robbed.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I am not sure that I follow here.. What did Mr.W say that he is lying about? I missed it when I was trying to catch up.. did he say he did not rob anyone?

Oh, crap, I think I got it confused. Who was the financial analyst? I think I was confusing Mr. Wednesday as the Thief and whoever got The Jackal's finances.

I'm sorry--ignore everything I said above in the past few posts.

Doesn't clear clap, though.

[hoopsguy]

Last I read, MrW was planning to use his ability last night as he was soliciting targets.

Now, how he was going to use it - to go after a windfall or to burn it (per DTs suggestion in the thread) - was pretty much up to him.

Clap, since there is a fair amount of conversation around you at the moment:
- why did you have 9K on hand and zero in the bank?
- how much did you have in CDs?

I know the CD $$$ is info that the wolves can use as well, but the answer here could go a long ways towards determining votes today.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Why didn't you say this from the start in your first post? If you knew who robbed you, why would you hide it in your first post? Heck, why wouldn't you have posted about this earlier today (and especially after Mr. Wednesdya posted)?

crippling hangover......

And why would I need to say who did it? I m just ssuming it was him.... as you pointed no one else can rob!

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Last I read, MrW was planning to use his ability last night as he was soliciting targets.

Now, how he was going to use it - to go after a windfall or to burn it (per DTs suggestion in the thread) - was pretty much up to him.

Clap, since there is a fair amount of conversation around you at the moment:
- why did you have 9K on hand and zero in the bank?
- how much did you have in CDs?

I know the CD $$$ is info that the wolves can use as well, but the answer here could go a long ways towards determining votes today.

why would anyone ever have money in the bank??
The rest (70isg K)

[hoopsguy]

Services from yesterday:
- Tyrith has claimed to use the Financial Analyst on Jackal, determined that he had 78K in assets
- MrW was looking to use the Thief ability last night, Clap is claiming that he had 9K on hand
- Chief has claimed to use the Friend of the Bank, has stated that Clap had zero money in the bank
- Alan T has claimed to use the Seer ability last night and clears MrW as Rich

I think that covers the actions from last night, although there are still a few passive services that have not been accounted for.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

why would anyone ever have money in the bank??
The rest (70isg K)

OK, can you go back and do a day-by-day recap (referencing PMs) to show where you have kept your money each day? That would potentially really help (or hurt) your case as a member of the Rich.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

crippling hangover......

And why would I need to say who did it? I m just ssuming it was him.... as you pointed no one else can rob!

Yeah, I messed up the Thief role with the Financial ANalyst used earlier on The Jackal (in my messed up mind, The Jackal got robbed). Sorry for the confusion.

As I said, being robbed doesn't clear you of being a wolf.

[Alan T]

Was one of the nights Render was around but didn't vote the night there was a three way tie and the wolves couldn't communicate via PM that day? I think I need to go back and see which days Render "missed the vote" on.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

why would anyone ever have money in the bank??
The rest (70isg K)

Here...

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

BTW, did everyone already know that you can sue your money in the bank on votes, bids, etc. or am I just late to the game? I realized I didn't know for sure Friday night and asked Barkeep via PM, and he said money on hand AND in the bank can be used for bidding.

Since only money on hand can be taken directly by the wolves via killing, any villager who knows this would have kept their available money (non-CD) in the bank. So anyone with "0" in the bank at any point (especially on nights they don't win a service) has to be a little more suspicious.

And, of course, I know who had 0 in their accounts as of the end of Day Four, FWIW.

[claphamsa]

Hoops. I will later, Im about to leave for hockey (which is gonna suck royally!)

[claphamsa]

I missed that....

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Here...

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

crippling hangover......

And why would I need to say who did it? I m just ssuming it was him.... as you pointed no one else can rob!

Just to clarify...your PM did not state who robbed you, correct? You're just making the assumption, right?

[Alan T]

Looking back at Render's missed votes, I guess I don't really see anything that makes me feel he is more likely to be a wolf. I remembered the day he was around then disappeared right before deadline then re-appeared right after.. but that was mauboy vs Saldana.. The next missed vote he didn't show up until nearly midnight and that was between Hoops (good), Tyrith , and Jackal (both I am leaning towards being good)..

I don't see anything there that makes me feel Render is more likely to be a wolf..

[Chief Rum]

Render missed the hoops-Jackal showdown, and the mauboy-saldana fight. Not sure which one he was "around" for, but I do remember that was the case (I think he either said he forgot to vote before deadline from playing around with his kids, or he lost his Internet connection, IIRC).

I still think it would be hard to argue a wolf would willingly miss two votes when they need every cent. The only possibility there, IMO (beyond that he is simply telling the truith, whether wolf or villager, about missing the votes) is if the wolves actually had more money to start the game. In that case, they're not so worried about missing votes. Or maybe they get the $15,000 no matter what.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Render missed the hoops-Jackal showdown, and the mauboy-saldana fight. Not sure which one he was "around" for, but I do remember that was the case (I think he either said he forgot to vote before deadline from playing around with his kids, or he lost his Internet connection, IIRC).

I still think it would be hard to argue a wolf would willingly miss two votes when they need every cent. The only possibility there, IMO (beyond that he is simply telling the truith, whether wolf or villager, about missing the votes) is if the wolves actually had more money to start the game. In that case, they're not so worried about missing votes. Or maybe they get the $15,000 no matter what.

I don't think we can assume the wolves started with the same money as us, but as I said before without having done the math yet, I think right now we are in a better position to try to push this to a traditional WW win and eliminate the wolves all together than taking that risk right now.

I just remembered Render having a very fishy day but didn't remember all of the details. He voted for Cronin whom wasn't playing, acknowledged that he hadn't gotten his vote in yet, and then didn't reappear until after the lynch. After seeing in both cases it was apparently villager vs villager (or in the case of Tyrith and Jackal, I am leaning towards them being villagers), I'm having a hard time acknowledging why he purposely would want to miss the vote. Unless it was a reverse strategy to try to gain trust after seeing our comments about Arles likely being good.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Can you unvote the vote to end the game or not?

Yes.

Can you vote multiple times for it for additional cost?

One vote per person on the ending of the game.

[Alan T]

Who made a case against Schmidty a few days ago and what was the case? At the time he had won the seer and had scanned the person who ended up dead that night (Was that when Saldana died?) correct, then has blamed Hoops since with votes every day?

Is that the only thing or was there more of a case?

[hoopsguy]

One approach we could take to apply pressure on Clap (or any candidate)is to get a runaway vote going on him and see if he is willing to move his cash publicly in advance of the deadline.

Ideally, he should select multiple people that will be around and are willing to consider spending the cash to save him with additional votes if they find this action to suggest he is a good guy.

I think this would be a very tough game of chicken for a wolf when they can be 100% sure of transferring their funds to a fellow wolf privately. They put themselves in a position of depending on the kindness of others if they do it publicly. As long as the cash is distributed to 3+ people, you can pretty much rule out them giving it strictly to wolves publicly and getting bailed out.

I'm not sure that we are at the point of a runaway vote yet with Clap, but I don't think he is in a good position at the moment. And having to depart for hockey on a Sunday night when he is in the middle of being questioned doesn't exactly build trust. Obviously real life gets in the way, but that felt a bit convenient from where I sit.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Who made a case against Schmidty a few days ago and what was the case? At the time he had won the seer and had scanned the person who ended up dead that night (Was that when Saldana died?) correct, then has blamed Hoops since with votes every day?

Is that the only thing or was there more of a case?

I don't think anyone has presented a compelling case against him so far. I can work on putting one together now (voted every day, no money in bank) but I don't think this is the direction I would go with my vote today.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I don't think anyone has presented a compelling case against him so far. I can work on putting one together now (voted every day, no money in bank) but I don't think this is the direction I would go with my vote today.

I think I am pretty sure that my vote will either be Render, Claphasma or Schmidty. Render already quickly got a vote out there for Claphasma which tells me either:

1) Render + Schmidty are bad and Claphasma isn't.
2) Render + Claphasma is bad and already are concedeing that one of them will likely be killed today, so is trying to force the issue.
3) Claphasma + Schmidty are bad and Render not being bad assumes he has a good shot at voting for one of the two so just takes a potshot vote.

The thing that I am trying to figure with Claphasma is based on the 9k being stolen, and 0 money in the bank.. that is alot of money tied up in CDs.. I would like to hear better accounting for where his money has been daily and how much he has tied up in a CD.. sure if he is good it tells the wolves info about him, but it is info we need.

The thing pushing me away from voting for Claphasma is... if he only has 9k there, and nothing in the bank, Passacaglia seems to not have sent him anything at all before he died if they both are wolves. I assume the wolves were prepared today for the possible end of the game, so if what Chief says is true about money in CDs not counting towards that.. I can't imagine they have any money in a CD at this point.

I guess I have to wait to see if Mr.W collaberates his statement or not.. but if he does, and Claphasma only had 9k stolen and nothing in the bank, I'll likely vote elsewhere (as long as he can give believable accounting of his money up till now.)

[Barkeep49]

Since Chief was either inadvertently or vertently given credit for running this game again I want to just clarify that money in CDs do indeed NOT count towards the final tally.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I think I am pretty sure that my vote will either be Render, Claphasma or Schmidty. Render already quickly got a vote out there for Claphasma which tells me either:

1) Render + Schmidty are bad and Claphasma isn't.
2) Render + Claphasma is bad and already are concedeing that one of them will likely be killed today, so is trying to force the issue.
3) Claphasma + Schmidty are bad and Render not being bad assumes he has a good shot at voting for one of the two so just takes a potshot vote.

The thing that I am trying to figure with Claphasma is based on the 9k being stolen, and 0 money in the bank.. that is alot of money tied up in CDs.. I would like to hear better accounting for where his money has been daily and how much he has tied up in a CD.. sure if he is good it tells the wolves info about him, but it is info we need.

The thing pushing me away from voting for Claphasma is... if he only has 9k there, and nothing in the bank, Passacaglia seems to not have sent him anything at all before he died if they both are wolves. I assume the wolves were prepared today for the possible end of the game, so if what Chief says is true about money in CDs not counting towards that.. I can't imagine they have any money in a CD at this point.

I guess I have to wait to see if Mr.W collaberates his statement or not.. but if he does, and Claphasma only had 9k stolen and nothing in the bank, I'll likely vote elsewhere (as long as he can give believable accounting of his money up till now.)

Well, what if I was the only one to think to ask BK this? If the wolves didn't know, maybe they have been stashing thier money in CDs? And we are all pretty certain more than one wolf is left (and not even counting the conversioN). Perhaps Pass moved his money to the other wolf?

The wolves only get one private move, right? So Pass would have had to move his money in one move, and it could only have gone to one person.

Otherwise, I am with ya on your thoughts above.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Since Chief was either inadvertently or vertently given credit for running this game again I want to just clarify that money in CDs do indeed NOT count towards the final tally.

lol...again?

Trust me, people, my game ended over a week ago.

[Chief Rum]

I still have all of my PMs from this game, and have confirmed I asked that question there (privately with BK) and I don't believe I mentioned it since or at all publically. So it is possible no one else knew this at all (that unmatured CDs won't count toward end game).

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

lol...again?

Trust me, people, my game ended over a week ago.

I think he may have been refering to my comment where I said you stated that info about CDs winning the game or not.. if so I know you aren't running the game, I was just saying if what you said there is correct, then .....


Not that you were running this game If this was in regards to something else, well then nevermind me,... nothing to see here

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I think he may have been refering to my comment where I said you stated that info about CDs winning the game or not.. if so I know you aren't running the game, I was just saying if what you said there is correct, then .....


Not that you were running this game If this was in regards to something else, well then nevermind me,... nothing to see here

This is indeed what I was referencing. I had found it more amusing than anything else, so this truth takes away from my amusement. Thanks a lot Alan!

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

This is indeed what I was referencing. I had found it more amusing than anything else, so this truth takes away from my amusement. Thanks a lot Alan!

Sorry!

[hoopsguy]

FWIW, I did not realize that CDs do not count toward wealth calculations for end game. And here I was thinking I was more or less on top of this ruleset ... or at least the financial part of the game.

Maybe I need to adopt's Schmidty's mindset and realize that I suck at this game Chief, thanks for publishing that info.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

FWIW, I did not realize that CDs do not count toward wealth calculations for end game. And here I was thinking I was more or less on top of this ruleset ... or at least the financial part of the game.

Maybe I need to adopt's Schmidty's mindset and realize that I suck at this game Chief, thanks for publishing that info.

Actually in retrospect, I am rather stunned I didn't mention it sooner. Been a bit of a tool with that, haven't I? I should have mentioned it much sooner.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Chief, I think you've offered up enough to get a good discussion going.

Do any of the people who Chief has suggested did not have money in the bank - Clap, RendeR, Schmidty - want to challenge his claim?

Nope, he's right, I have no money on hand whatsoever to be totally honest with you.

[Chief Rum]

I will be gone all day tomorrow, as is my usual Monday schedule. So I will have to vote now. Fortunately, I would say we have built up at least somewhat of a good case here against a couple people. Hopefully it nabs us a wolf.

VOTE CLAPHAMSA

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Tyrith, did you get a breakdown of assets for The Jackal?

Jackal, can you give us a rundown of how you accumulated 78K in money up to this point? And, if you don't mind since information is out there already, list where you have kept money for each day (in hand, bank, CD)?

No.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Looking back at Render's missed votes, I guess I don't really see anything that makes me feel he is more likely to be a wolf. I remembered the day he was around then disappeared right before deadline then re-appeared right after.. but that was mauboy vs Saldana.. The next missed vote he didn't show up until nearly midnight and that was between Hoops (good), Tyrith , and Jackal (both I am leaning towards being good)..

I don't see anything there that makes me feel Render is more likely to be a wolf..

I missed votes on days 2 and 3 due to work interfering with my ability to screw off online and get paid for it =)

Sorry guys, nothing covert going on there, I just didn't get votes in early and got screwed by getting busy at the lab. Would have enjoyed having that extra 30k in my pocket too =(

[Tyrith]

Clap, I don't have a clue. I'll probably play follow the leader in that regard.

Friday I got a bad feeling about Schmidty. His day 3 play, while all too Schmidty, is also a perfect cover for putting a vote on a really good villager player in that situation and trying to create the situation that almost happened. The day 4 vote helped to mask that and go with the forlorn hope that maybe we'd try to kill hoops again. And his comments towards pass in day 3....a scheme, perhaps, to make us feel like idiots for looking at him? That last thing makes a very suspicious case in my mind. That's just too convenient.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

One approach we could take to apply pressure on Clap (or any candidate)is to get a runaway vote going on him and see if he is willing to move his cash publicly in advance of the deadline.

Ideally, he should select multiple people that will be around and are willing to consider spending the cash to save him with additional votes if they find this action to suggest he is a good guy.

I think this would be a very tough game of chicken for a wolf when they can be 100% sure of transferring their funds to a fellow wolf privately. They put themselves in a position of depending on the kindness of others if they do it publicly. As long as the cash is distributed to 3+ people, you can pretty much rule out them giving it strictly to wolves publicly and getting bailed out.

I'm not sure that we are at the point of a runaway vote yet with Clap, but I don't think he is in a good position at the moment. And having to depart for hockey on a Sunday night when he is in the middle of being questioned doesn't exactly build trust. Obviously real life gets in the way, but that felt a bit convenient from where I sit.

you sir are paranoid!

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Just to clarify...your PM did not state who robbed you, correct? You're just making the assumption, right?

just said I woke up with no money on hand.

[claphamsa]

Im confused as to waht case you are talkig about here....

other that I got robbed and you all may not belive this....

no one has presented even crapppy evidence agasint me!

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I will be gone all day tomorrow, as is my usual Monday schedule. So I will have to vote now. Fortunately, I would say we have built up at least somewhat of a good case here against a couple people. Hopefully it nabs us a wolf.

VOTE CLAPHAMSA

[claphamsa]

Ok,

everyone wants me to accout for my money....

And to save you all froim doing somethign stupid and voting me off...

start with 30K Kept half on hand half into a 3 day CD (to make monwy so we can win)
I voted so I got another 15 K

I kept it all on hand (so i could bid and what not) (I have 15 K in CDs and 30 K on hand now)

I voted day 2 as well. I lost my bid. so I have 45 K at the begnign of day 3.
(1 more night for the CDs)

day 3 I vote. CDs mature My 15 K CD is now worth 19965 and I have 64965 on hand. I take 45K and put it into a 1 day CD.

I vote again I have another 15K and my cd is now worth 47250 (or so im told)
I now ihave 82215. I put 75K into a 1 day CD (shoulda put it all in)

my W (I assume) steals my on hand money I now have a 78750 on hand

I hope you are all happy, now the wolves no how much i have and I fully expect to die tongiht!

[Chief Rum]

I already explained who wolves would have zero money in the bank to you just above here, didn't I? You even responded and acknowledged it.

Well, read my next post on that, the one where I talk about who has no money in the bank and compare it to the "distrust lists" of both hoops and Alan.

It's no smoking gun, sure, but best we have got so far. It certainly doesn't make you or Schmidty look good. It doesn't make me look good either, but hopefully people will see I wouldn't come out with this information otherwise.

Do you deny having no money in the bank at the end of Day Four? Render has already said he has no money there, and although he didn't say anything, I essentially let another guy know I saw he had no money in the bank, and he didn't protest it either.

So if you agree I am not lying there, do you see what I am saying about the suspicion of having no money in the bank? Only wolves would keep no money in the bank at this point, at least of the funds they have available to them (not in CDs).

So, now, there is more than "crappy evidence" available, even if it's circumstantial.

[claphamsa]

Now htat we are done with my grilling, why does evrryone trust Hoops? he has been leadign us around by the nose, and really contributing nothing... Somehow being the beneficarey the first day has made evryone belive he is good.

(My hockey team lost and it looks the the rich are gonna lose so im pissed!)

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

Ok,

everyone wants me to accout for my money....

And to save you all froim doing somethign stupid and voting me off...

start with 30K Kept half on hand half into a 3 day CD (to make monwy so we can win)
I voted so I got another 15 K

I kept it all on hand (so i could bid and what not) (I have 15 K in CDs and 30 K on hand now)

I voted day 2 as well. I lost my bid. so I have 45 K at the begnign of day 3.
(1 more night for the CDs)

day 3 I vote. CDs mature My 15 K CD is now worth 19965 and I have 64965 on hand. I take 45K and put it into a 1 day CD.

I vote again I have another 15K and my cd is now worth 47250 (or so im told)
I now ihave 82215. I put 75K into a 1 day CD (shoulda put it all in)

my W (I assume) steals my on hand money I now have a 78750 on hand

I hope you are all happy, now the wolves no how much i have and I fully expect to die tongiht!

How do you have your CD money on hand? You put the $75K in the 1 Day CD after Day Four's vote. You won't get that money back until after Monday night's deadline. You should have nothing right now.

Also 82215-75K is $7,215, not $9,000. Unless you're saying Mr.Wednesday is lying. Sorry, no way, Wednesday even approximates $7K & change as &9K.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

Now htat we are done with my grilling, why does evrryone trust Hoops? he has been leadign us around by the nose, and really contributing nothing... Somehow being the beneficarey the first day has made evryone belive he is good.

(My hockey team lost and it looks the the rich are gonna lose so im pissed!)

Actually Alan checked him out as the seer two nights ago and he came up good. See Day Four.

He could have been converted last night, of course, but, like Alan says, if we open that can of worms without getting the original wolves right now, we might as well just give them the game.