WW Amazing Race - Game Over (Moles Win & Team Reebok Wins)

[cougarfreak]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I don't think Cougarfreak is a good vote, actually. His vote on day one is as solid as they come.

Thank you, I'm not as experienced as some of you guys, I am still learning. Kinda reading, and catching up.

[Danny]

vote chief rum

I'm not 100 percent sold on this vote, but its clear I am going to be a lead candidate, and right now I need a second candidate before this becomes a villager run off. Its risky since chief is not one of the people who has said their voting for me.

[Danny]

vote chief rum

I'm not 100 percent sold on this vote, but its clear I am going to be a lead candidate, and right now I need a second candidate before this becomes a villager run off. Its risky since chief is not one of the people who has said their voting for me.

[cougarfreak]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

My gut says Danny, but I'd like to take a closer look at CR's history as well. He has been unusually defensive the last couple of days and he's just not as analytic or involved in this game as I've seen him be. Whether that's because he's a wolf trying not to draw attention or because of circumstance, I have no idea. Just get a very un-CR vibe from him in this game.

I don't feel ntn as a wolf as I've said before. He was about an hour away from being voted off day 1 until the MartinD reveal and I don't remember anyone putting anything forward to try and save him. Unless he's a roled wolf and MartinD was a sacrifice but nobody seemed to think that was remotely realistic.

Why are you thinking Danny, I'm trying to wrap my head around some of this.

[Chief Rum]

I don't think there is enough confidence in you as a candidate, Danny, that a runaway would develope. The tendency of the village is to provide at least two candidates, if for any reason, than to provide voting information for down the line.

That said, I understand selecting a target to try to get that second candidate going.

I am torn on you, because I see some of the things others have been saying about you. Plus, even though mau was faking his seer reveal, there is still some logic to suggest that, even in that situation, that he would choose to not "scan" you, his partner, so that you wouldn't draw unnecessary attention (this is in the hypothetical that the two of you were a wolf pair).

I have held off partly because you got the right read on me yesterday when Pass was gunning for me, and supported me there. That actually doesn't make a difference on whether or not you're a wolf, but it at least makes me hesitate.

[Danny]

[b][unvote chief/B]

I've tried to vote twice now, but I really should until I am home and can do some better analysis

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by cougarfreak

Why are you thinking Danny, I'm trying to wrap my head around some of this.

All I have to go on is his day 1 vote with mauboy of CF, who ended up being the first NK. At that point I think there's a very good chance that the wolves had identified him as possible seer because of his comments about mauboys reveal (with DV a close second) and so that vote just looks really bad to me.

The second, very very tenuous reason is that I think there could have been a concerted wolf effort to sabotage DV and I in the race (using aggression points) and if so, it probably would have taken a wolf only team to pull it off. Danny is mauboy's teammate so it could make sense. But that's like 1% of my reason and the other 99% is the day 1 vote of CF.

It's hardly a cast iron reason to vote for somebody, but it's the only thing I have to go on right now that isn't completely based on a feeling about somebodies play or isn't a complete shot in the dark.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Pass, you see me as overly defensive because I am annoyed trying to repeatedly point out a lack of logic in your own dogged pursuit of me, and your seeming unwillingness to consider the possibility I am a villager or that there might be better candidates. It's easy to get defensive in that situation.

I have presented the information on my votes for Day One. Anyone interested can feel free to fidn them to see what was going on with them.

I am looking forward to an actual logical argument to lynch me.

My own *dogged pursuit*? Seriously? And my seeming unwillingness to consider the possibility that you're a villager? Are you playing the same game as me?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by JAG

Lathum, can you shed any light on your unblockable bonus (is that race or WW related) or would it not be beneficial to let the wolves know?

not sure what you mean here.

any ability I had was related to werewolf, I got nothing from the race for any incentives.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

My own *dogged pursuit*? Seriously? And my seeming unwillingness to consider the possibility that you're a villager? Are you playing the same game as me?

Do you just have a memory block on yesterday or something? Do you want me to re-post your posts for you?

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

1. Autumn - avoided Mau + NTN on D1
3. Passacaglia - non-factor on D1 (NTN vote creating 3 way tie)
4. mckerney - early vote on Mau
5. PackerFanatic - first vote on Mau, would wolves had had 2 of 3 first votes on him?
8. JAG
10. ntndeacon - forced into defensive D1
11. bhlloy - purportedly scanned by DV, early vote on Mau
12. cougarfreak - key vote on Mau
15. Danny - introduced NTN as candidate, don't think that NTN/Danny are likely to be wolves together
16. Chief Rum - Mau voted for him early D1, somewhat erratic D1 voting (on/off candidates)
17. hoopsguy - I know I'm a villager
19. GoldenEagle - purportedly scanned by DV

There's one thing I noticed about mckerney. The day after I was eaten/NKed, and spoke my piece against mauboy, mckerney dropped the first vote on mauboy, even announcing that fact. I don't think a wolf would try that move, but would rather hope that no one would listen to me instead of trying to start a run. So I think mckerney is safe.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Hmm, maybe you should take a closer look at what was happening there.

I voted mau because of his following up with a second vote so quick (I forget who he voted, probably ntn). If you recall, he claimed he was preparing his vote post and then got interrupted at work and couldn't post his vote fro 45 minutes. By the time he did, it was right after someone else had voted the same guy. So it looked like a quick follow vote. It was Day One after all, not much is needed to put a guy on the block.

In any case, I started a vote post of my own. There was maybe one vote on mau at the time. By the time I finished my post, there was another mau vote, and then someone followed me with a mau vote. That was in a very quick stretch. I decided I didn't like that, and that's why I unvoted mau.

I later voted for ntn in a self-defense move; it was me, mau and ntn on the block at the time, and I was still skittish about voting mau, given the way that run had developed. ntn also had his vote on me. He and I agreed to take our votes off of one another because we both felt there were better candidates. At this point I went back to mauboy1, still in self-defense mode.

I stayed on mauboy1 until he did the seer hint-reveal. That was getting closer to when I was leaving for the day, and I wasn't going to leave my vote on the potential seer. So I unvoted mau and went to JAG, one of the few others with a vote, avoiding ntn because I had already told him I wouldn't vote for him that day. At the time it was looking like an ntn-mau head to head, and people were starting to jump off of mau with his "reveal".

I left for the day at that point (or at least until past deadline), and so I wasn't around for the MartinD stuff.

It was a Day One vote, and crazier than normal, with all the weird runs. I was prepared to lynch mau on Day One and would have if he didn't do the fake reveal.

Chief, I think this is the post with what you claim is evidence. If there's another post, you can feel free to let me know. Anyway, this does not seem like "evidence" to me, rather an attempt to explain away.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Do you just have a memory block on yesterday or something? Do you want me to re-post your posts for you?

Do I want you to? Not particularly, it doesn't matter to me. But if it helps you, be my guest!

[Danny]

In response to bh, I voted crimson before mau did and before he reacted against mauboy. It wasn't as you described where I voted him after he reacted. The suspicion on me is fair, but most of it is because my partner happened to be a wolf who did all the crazy things he did. Mau did a nice job making sure I got suspicion after he died.

[Danny]

Oh and my voting record is crap

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Danny

In response to bh, I voted crimson before mau did and before he reacted against mauboy. It wasn't as you described where I voted him after he reacted. The suspicion on me is fair, but most of it is because my partner happened to be a wolf who did all the crazy things he did. Mau did a nice job making sure I got suspicion after he died.

What are partners for!

[hoopsguy]

I just don't have time to do the research project that I want to do right now, but I would put the following question out there to those with a little time and motivation ...

What do we learn if NTN is lynched as a wolf? As a villager?
What do we learn if Danny is lynched as a wolf? As a villager?

I'm torn between what my gut says (Danny) and where I think we learn the most info (NTN). So if someone wants to work through that exercise I would greatly appreciate it. Either way, I'll likely be dropping a vote when I get home from work and then be gone for the night.

[EagleFan]

As of post 1225:

Danny 1 - Autumn (1218)
Chief Rum 1 - Danny (1252)

[Danny]

Hoops, ill try and answer that without bias. I'd say we learn a large amount if ntn is a wolf and a fair amount if he is a villager. If I am a wolf we learn a moderate amount and if I'm a villager we learn almost nothing.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Chief, I think this is the post with what you claim is evidence. If there's another post, you can feel free to let me know. Anyway, this does not seem like "evidence" to me, rather an attempt to explain away.

Do I claim "evidence" somewhere? In my post to which I think you are referring, I speak of "information", and this post indeed does qualify as that.

I don't have evidence to prove I am not a wolf other than what I myself know. Come to think of it, neither do you.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Danny

Vote Courgarfreak. This may change, but I want to apply some pressure here.

Whoa! I'm getting whiplash following all the people you're accusing.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Do I want you to? Not particularly, it doesn't matter to me. But if it helps you, be my guest!

If it doesn't matter to you, why are you questioning my description of your pursuit of me as "dogged" and unwilling to consider I am a villager"? If you don't care, don't waste our time challenging my assertion.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I don't think Cougarfreak is a good vote, actually. His vote on day one is as solid as they come.

THe only reason I suspect Cougarfreak is his weird answers/explanations while voting, but that's more of a hunch, no vote tracking. Probably not something to deal with right now.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

My own *dogged pursuit*? Seriously? And my seeming unwillingness to consider the possibility that you're a villager? Are you playing the same game as me?

I will say that you've been terribly strident about your beliefs in who is a wolf and it's like you're over HERE while the rest of us are over THERE in what we're talking about. This isn't a bad thing. I like it actually. It's kinda funny. Your argument to "search for the cunning" doesn't work for me though.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I just don't have time to do the research project that I want to do right now, but I would put the following question out there to those with a little time and motivation ...

What do we learn if NTN is lynched as a wolf? As a villager?
What do we learn if Danny is lynched as a wolf? As a villager?

I'm torn between what my gut says (Danny) and where I think we learn the most info (NTN). So if someone wants to work through that exercise I would greatly appreciate it. Either way, I'll likely be dropping a vote when I get home from work and then be gone for the night.

I can't fully answer this (shopping and writing currently), but if ntn is a wolf, it would change my thinking dramatically, for one Danny would be close to cleared in my mind as I can't see why a wolf would introduce another wolf D1 in that situation. Ive been operating under the assumption ntn=villager, so it would also reflect worse on Mau voters. I can't really sort the rest out now, but I stand by thinking Danny is a more likely wolf than ntn based on the D1 voting so I don't see myself switching to ntn.

[Chief Rum]

My question to voters who think ntn is a wolf, or aren't certain enough of him being a villager that they would stop him from being lynched:

If at one key point on Day One, mau, myself and ntn were tied up/close to even on votes (this happened) AND ntn is a wolf, and we already know that mau is a wolf, why did the following votes push ntn (the proposed wolf) up to save mau (known wolf), rather than push me up (in this scenario, unless you truly believe all three of mau, myself and ntn are wolves, you have to consider me a villager--hypothetically) as an alternative to mau?

That's what I want to know.

At one point, the three of us were either tied at 4 votes apiece, or maybe one of us had 5 votes. Regardless, we were clearly the three players under consideration at that point. We know mau is a wolf. Throwing out the unlikelihood that all three of us are wolves, if mau was a wolf and so was ntn, why is that at this point, ntn got more votes and was pushed up to go head to head with mau, rather than myself?

IMO, it's extremely unlikely ntn is a wolf, unless the wolves just completely dropped the ball there.

[Autumn]

I'm sorry I'm not able to be very active today. Work hasn't let me, and now my wife is out and I'm dealing with the kids.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

There were nine voters on mau at the peak, IIRC. Why am I the one of the nine you think is playing this this way? You in particular have targeted me above others in consideration, and willfully ignore evidence to the contrary. I don't know why that is, but I hope it's because you're a confused but stubborn villager, rather than someone more deceitful.

If I was waiting for the reveal, is there some reason why it was some time before I switched off of mau after his reveal? Or was I just away during that time, do you surmise? Like many it seems, I didn't really look that closely at mau's "reveal" post until hoops pointed it out. So why as a hypotehtical wolf am I choosing to "miss" that reveal I supposedly knew about before getting off of mau?

You're going out of your way to construct reasons to lynch me.

Chief, here's the evidence post I was talking about.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

If it doesn't matter to you, why are you questioning my description of your pursuit of me as "dogged" and unwilling to consider I am a villager"? If you don't care, don't waste our time challenging my assertion.

I meant that it doesn't matter to me if you repost my posts.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

I will say that you've been terribly strident about your beliefs in who is a wolf and it's like you're over HERE while the rest of us are over THERE in what we're talking about. This isn't a bad thing. I like it actually. It's kinda funny. Your argument to "search for the cunning" doesn't work for me though.

Really? I don't know how I'm giving off this vibe when I'm not at all sure myself who's a wolf. I don't think I've ever said "search for the cunning" though -- just that if you think someone is a wolf, it doesn't make sense to avoid voting for him just because he'd have to be the cunning.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Really? I don't know how I'm giving off this vibe when I'm not at all sure myself who's a wolf. I don't think I've ever said "search for the cunning" though -- just that if you think someone is a wolf, it doesn't make sense to avoid voting for him just because he'd have to be the cunning.

It makes less sense to vote for someone as a wolf with the only reason being that being the cunning is the only way they could be a wolf. Only a 5% chance anyone starting the game is the cunning.

Re: vibe. I don't know. But it seems that if we were all in a room together, you come across like you're shouting at whoever you're accusing. Granted that's sometimes a good tactic.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Chief, here's the evidence post I was talking about.

So you're picking at one word in one post I made yesterday? Really?

You have yet to refute anything I have said.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Re: vibe. I don't know. But it seems that if we were all in a room together, you come across like you're shouting at whoever you're accusing. Granted that's sometimes a good tactic.

Agreed, that's a good description of Pass's approach to me in this game. I don't know about shouting per say, but unflinchingly accusatory, yes. Far more than the "evidence" supports doing so, anyway.

For someone who is uncertain of who is a wolf, Pass, you certainly did lock in on me.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

It makes less sense to vote for someone as a wolf with the only reason being that being the cunning is the only way they could be a wolf. Only a 5% chance anyone starting the game is the cunning.

Re: vibe. I don't know. But it seems that if we were all in a room together, you come across like you're shouting at whoever you're accusing. Granted that's sometimes a good tactic.

Yeah, I understand the percentages, I just don't think it makes sense to ignore your own thoughts about the way things are now, just because they were unlikely initially.

Definitely funny about the vibe, since Danny and Autumn earlier accused me of being too mellow.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

So you're picking at one word in one post I made yesterday? Really?

You have yet to refute anything I have said.

Well, that is the one word you asked about, right? I said you claimed it was evidence, you said, "Do I claim 'evidence' somewhere" and I showed where you did.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Definitely funny about the vibe, since Danny and Autumn earlier accused me of being too mellow.

You can't please everybody .

(or anybody, for that matter)

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Well, that is the one word you asked about, right? I said you claimed it was evidence, you said, "Do I claim 'evidence' somewhere" and I showed where you did.

Okay, I see that, but it's still just one word in a lengthy post, and, really that's just asshat nitpicky. The first time you brought it up, you didn't even quote the right post! No one reading my posts are going to think I am offering up incontrovertible proof of villagerness. I don't have that (and as I noted, neither did you).

This is picky crap, Pass, and you're still not even trying to refute anything I am saying, just quibbling about word usage.

I'm done with it. You go on thinking what you want; it's clear you're not inclined to be open-minded about anything here. All we're doing is wasting time with posts like these, so this is the last one I am making on this matter.

If you want to get back into discussing actual arguments for or against my allegiance, let me know. If you're just going to pick out words in my posts, please just vote for me like you want to and otherwise leave me be.

[cougarfreak]

You know.........Pass seems like he's acting like a wolf to me. He's throwing all kinds of unfounded accusations at Chief. I'm going out on a limb here.

vote Pass

[Danny]

Pass' play has been bipolar so far this game. He played really mellow and then after Autumn and I questioned it, has been playing more like he did a couple games ago. I do wonder if it's forced based on our comments.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by cougarfreak

You know.........Pass seems like he's acting like a wolf to me. He's throwing all kinds of unfounded accusations at Chief. I'm going out on a limb here.

vote Pass

Hmm, I have thought about that myself, but it's just not a wolf play. I don't really think Pass is a wolf. I think Pass is many things at the moment--but a wolf is not really one of them, at least not without more proof.

Unless he's playing some sort of double blind game ("best hiding place is in plain sight", etc.), it seems unlikely to me that Pass would play this out the way he has while being a wolf.

[Danny]

Oh and Crimson, by my count the only alive players I haven't voted for or pressured are Packer, bh, Autumn, Mckerney and goldeneagle.

[Danny]

I figure as long as I get those five in sometime before I die, then at the end of the game I can say I told you so about all of the wolves regardless of which of them are.

[ntndeacon]

One thing in Danny's defense... Right after mau made his play about being the village picture taker (whatever he called the role) Danny was the first to call him on it and vote for him. This gives him a little more leaway for me...so I am gonna go elsewhere. I have been looking at someone for a bit trying to see the reason for certain posts. So I will agree with cougar's latest vote and say...

Vote Pass

[hoopsguy]

This is likely to be my last check in before deadline - have family over this evening and I'm already getting heat for stepping away. I really wish I had more availability today as this feels like a fairly important day if there are five wolves - get the right lynch here and we would be taking control of the game. Miss it and we're looking at an uphill battle.

Anyway, my thoughts on D1 suggest that NTN = villager and that makes Danny (on top of gut) more likely to be a wolf in my mind. I think it is far from a perfect argument, but you rarely have perfect arguments for catching good players/wolves.

VOTE DANNY

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Danny

Oh and Crimson, by my count the only alive players I haven't voted for or pressured are Packer, bh, Autumn, Mckerney and goldeneagle.

Thanks I'll make a note of that.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Danny

I figure as long as I get those five in sometime before I die, then at the end of the game I can say I told you so about all of the wolves regardless of which of them are.

Wow! You are a genius at this game being able to vote for all the wolves like that.

[GoldenEagle]

So basically we has a Pass/Chief pissing match and that is about all there is to analyze today.

I still think ntn is the best candidate and his willingness to hop on and through on Pass confirms that. What we have here is the classic '2nd vote' from a wolf. He is trying to build momentum on pass. I am not convinced he is a wolf, but i don't see how we can wrong at this point.

VOTE NTNDEACON

[CrimsonFox]

As of post 1297:

Danny 3 - Autumn (1218) JAG (1245) hoopsguy (1294)
Chief Rum 1 - Danny (1252 & 1253)
Passacaglia 2 - cougarfreak (1288) ntndeacon (1293)
ntndeacon 1 - GoldenEagle (1297)

Nice doublevote Danny. You must be twice as sure.

[Danny]

I actually tried to unvote him too, but didnt bold it

unvote chief
unvote chief

[EagleFan]

As of post 1299:

Danny 2 - Autumn (1218), hoopsguy (1294)
Passacaglia 2 - cougarfreak (1288), ntndeacon (1293)
ntndeacon 1 - GoldenEagle (1297)