Werewolf XLVIII - The horror of sorcery hill (Game over)

[path12]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

If there is no found synergy between the items we have available does it make sense to try and mix them anyway and then attempt to research them?

Or throw them? I don't remember that just mixing them will give you the information or if that's a product of researching the spell/potion.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I think if you could really do all that stuff you'd just do some of it. There appears to be no value in telling us all those options if you truly could do all of them.

I've already done one of them, and am considering a second just as a precaution.

THe value in telling you is that you:

A) leave me alive and try to bag wolf #3 knowing that you know me and can come back to me later on.

B) Think I'm bluffing and suffer the consequences I laid out above.

THe value is that having nothing to lose, I have no reason to lie to you. That gives me confidence enough that I'll have the last laugh. You may get me, but its going to cost you if you do in at least one way, perhaps more.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Ok we'll try this again, with commas:

I'll admit that, even if half those things are true that Render just said, to being frustrated with this game.

Does that work better Render?

You're saying that you are frustrated with this game, even if the stuff I said is true..gotcha.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by path12

Or throw them? I don't remember that just mixing them will give you the information or if that's a product of researching the spell/potion.

Mixing them will result in a potion. The potion might be helpful, harmless, or harmful. We don't know after just making the potion.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by RendeR

You're saying that you are frustrated with this game, even if the stuff I said is true..gotcha.

No I'm frustrated only if the stuff you said is true.

[hoopsguy]

Barkeep, I'm not sure that we need to have our hand forced quite yet in terms of mixing randomly.

We have a 5-2 edge heading into today. I expect that RendeR can do one of the things he is suggesting, but I believe the worst case scenario we are facing tomorrow is 4-2. I don't see us in "last-day mode" unless the wolves started with four. If that is the case, I think we are already dead meat and our play over the weekend didn't mean much at all except to delay the inevitable.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by RendeR

I've already done one of them, and am considering a second just as a precaution.

THe value in telling you is that you:

A) leave me alive and try to bag wolf #3 knowing that you know me and can come back to me later on.

B) Think I'm bluffing and suffer the consequences I laid out above.

THe value is that having nothing to lose, I have no reason to lie to you. That gives me confidence enough that I'll have the last laugh. You may get me, but its going to cost you if you do in at least one way, perhaps more.

Except that if we go after wolf 3, and find him, then wolf 3 will just get some items from you and build similar protections. Am I missing something with my analysis? Seems to me we have to go after the wolf we know.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Barkeep, I'm not sure that we need to have our hand forced quite yet in terms of mixing randomly.

We have a 5-2 edge heading into today. I expect that RendeR can do one of the things he is suggesting, but I believe the worst case scenario we are facing tomorrow is 4-2. I don't see us in "last-day mode" unless the wolves started with four. If that is the case, I think we are already dead meat and our play over the weekend didn't mean much at all except to delay the inevitable.

I agree we're not in desperation mode and didn't mean to suggest that we were.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Except that if we go after wolf 3, and find him, then wolf 3 will just get some items from you and build similar protections. Am I missing something with my analysis? Seems to me we have to go after the wolf we know.

As I've already used one potion and will probably use a second to ensure my own survival, there won't be much left to give my comrade at this point either way. And as you really don't know who he is yet, he's still got a very good chance you'll just lynch a villager again tonight if you don't lynch me.

Which brings me back to protecting myself so that even if you do lynch me, you lose the day anyway. And face a 4-2 ratio tomorrow, possibly 4-3 if the conversion works.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by RendeR

As I've already used one potion and will probably use a second to ensure my own survival, there won't be much left to give my comrade at this point either way. And as you really don't know who he is yet, he's still got a very good chance you'll just lynch a villager again tonight if you don't lynch me.

Which brings me back to protecting myself so that even if you do lynch me, you lose the day anyway. And face a 4-2 ratio tomorrow, possibly 4-3 if the conversion works.

Except your protections might last until we attempt to lynch you. If we no lynch today it's 5-2 tomorrow. 4-3 if you convert. So then tomorrow we kill you then we're still at 4-2. I like that better than lynching a villager today, and having you kill someone over night which suddenly would make it 3-2 or even give you the victory if you convert. I just don't see the sense in attempting to find another wolf that we don't know who it is.

[RendeR]

You're leaving out the worst case scenario where not only do you NOT lynch me, but I take someone out when you try AND I convert someone during the day.

Your 5-2 tomorrow suddenly becomes 3-3 after the night kill.

This is one possible ending should you lynch me tonight.

[RendeR]

And even if the protections only last for 1 lynch attempt, I'm still alive tomorrow and we do this again, with you down 1 to possibly 3 villagers. 2 is probable, but 3 IS possible.

[Barkeep49]

Except why should we do your work for you. By my reckoning there are 3 fairly well known villagers, 1 known wolf. That leaves 1 unknown wolf and 2 unknown villagers giving us a 2/3 probability of taking out a villager if we don't lynch you. Plus, what's to suggest you still couldn't take out a villager even if we lynch someone other than you? If you can prevent us from lynching you and can still take out a villager and you can convert someone, I don't really see how we stop you from winning the game. I don't think you'll be able to do any of that.

You're right that we might be down to 3 villagers tomorrow, but I'd still rather have a known wolf then giving a 67% chance of being down to 3 villagers tomorrow by not lynching you.

[LoneStarGirl]

Render I have to admit I am pretty impressed with your desperation

Is chief the one that had the Newt tail? Somebody had that tail....

I would love some invisible powder too. Render do you have a newt tail or invisible powder?

[Barkeep49]

DOLA - At this point I think I've made my point and you've made your so unless some other player pipes in with confusion I'm done debating the topic.

[path12]

Originally Posted by RendeR

As I've already used one potion and will probably use a second to ensure my own survival, there won't be much left to give my comrade at this point either way.

Then there's no way you had a couple dozen items.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by path12

Then there's no way you had a couple dozen items.

Really? I've been given 5 from villagers over the period of the game, I found 3, I had 2 recipes and an item to start out, I got everything from Swaggs (he had 6 or 7, and I've been holding almost everything we took from the night kills other than swaggs, why couldn't I have 20+ items? I also said some had been used/mixed but all totaled I easily have a couple dozen.

[RendeR]

I think I wasn't clear about my post you quoted actually, I won't have much "of value" to give my comrade.

Does that help?

[LoneStarGirl]

render, if you give me invisible powder I wont vote for you today

And i will try to convince everybody else not to vote for you too... c'mon you know you want to.

[hoopsguy]

I would prefer to have RendeR actually show us that he can do something, rather than just take his word for it. Actions stay where they are.

LSG, do you have any of the ingredients I was looking for?
- mushrooms
- chamomile (to combine with mushrooms)
- parsley
- lizard tail (to combine with parsley)

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

render, if you give me invisible powder I wont vote for you today

And i will try to convince everybody else not to vote for you too... c'mon you know you want to.

Ok I might be silly, but I'm not stupid

Invisibility powder will come it very handy come lynching time, don't you think?

[RendeR]

I want to add that had the villagers opened up and cooperated better on day 2 they probably would have found us all out by now. Trust is such a fickle friend =)

[LoneStarGirl]

No I dont hoops, sorry

And Render, invisibility powder doesn't work on its own. You need something else...so you might as well let me have it so i can play with it

[path12]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Really? I've been given 5 from villagers over the period of the game, I found 3, I had 2 recipes and an item to start out, I got everything from Swaggs (he had 6 or 7, and I've been holding almost everything we took from the night kills other than swaggs, why couldn't I have 20+ items? I also said some had been used/mixed but all totaled I easily have a couple dozen.

I think you're bluffing. If you could have used all this stuff and won you already would have.

It does make today interesting though.

[LoneStarGirl]

I really wish I had a potion or something... today would be a great day to use it.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

No I dont hoops, sorry

And Render, invisibility powder doesn't work on its own. You need something else...so you might as well let me have it so i can play with it

Actually as I've been given to understand, its a potion unto itself, and while it IS an ingredient in making the crystal ball there is nothing wrong with using it on its own either.

And its not like I'm going to give you the means of finding my companions, give me a BIT more credit than that =)

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by path12

I think you're bluffing. If you could have used all this stuff and won you already would have.

It does make today interesting though.

If they'd work that way on their own I would have, but if I use them out of turn, I waste my time and get lynched in the process.

As I said, I've used one, and plan to use another before the deadline. This will hopefully keep me alive even if you DO lynch me tonight.

I have one other option open to me as well and will use it when the time is right.

[RendeR]

I'll toss out this little bone to you as well, I have the following recipes(and components to make 4 of them):


Silence
Poison
Sleeping
Eternal Bond
Holy Water
Invisible powder
Mind Control
Paralyze
Vitriol



Those I have scavenged from the game overall, between nights and kills and just plain being given them.

[RendeR]

DOH almost 4, gotta get ready for work, I'll be on from there later.

[LoneStarGirl]

Vitriol is a good thing to have, but you are missing one key ingredient to make it really work... and your invisible powder doesn't work that well alone, and although you have the recipe for mind control, you dont have the ingredients

[LoneStarGirl]

I would love to know who passed anything to Render throughout this game

[hoopsguy]

Hmm, if that is your real list then there is a whole mess of stuff that isn't going to help you:

Silence - would have been good yesterday in the close vote, not so much today

Poison - definitely would be helpful, although if it doesn't kill immediately we might cobble together a cure poison option

Sleeping - see "silence"

Eternal Bond - knowing who is good is redundant knowledge for evil

Holy Water - unless this protects from a lynch by the righteous, this seems useless. You are not afraid of a night kill, barring us having a certain item or two

Invisible powder - TBD, I kind of trust LSG more than you at the moment in terms of what this can/can't do

Mind Control - again, moving one persons vote isn't going to get the job done

Paralyze - broken record, locking up one person isn't going to do it

Vitriol - don't have a good guess what this one will do. Do you know?

[LoneStarGirl]

unvote render

[hoopsguy]

Gee, should we all follow LSG's unvote? RendeR, if that is the best you've got among your two dozen ingredients ...

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

unvote render

I'm surprised to see that LSG.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Hmm, if that is your real list then there is a whole mess of stuff that isn't going to help you:

Silence - would have been good yesterday in the close vote, not so much today

Poison - definitely would be helpful, although if it doesn't kill immediately we might cobble together a cure poison option

Sleeping - see "silence"

Eternal Bond - knowing who is good is redundant knowledge for evil

Holy Water - unless this protects from a lynch by the righteous, this seems useless. You are not afraid of a night kill, barring us having a certain item or two

Invisible powder - TBD, I kind of trust LSG more than you at the moment in terms of what this can/can't do

Mind Control - again, moving one persons vote isn't going to get the job done

Paralyze - broken record, locking up one person isn't going to do it

Vitriol - don't have a good guess what this one will do. Do you know?

Remember what I posted. I have the stuff for 4 of these. Any one alone is useless.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I'm surprised to see that LSG.

I'm not, she's trying to flush out my actions or perhaps get the other wolves to move off me too.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Gee, should we all follow LSG's unvote? RendeR, if that is the best you've got among your two dozen ingredients ...

Thats just the potions. Spells just need chanting

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

Vitriol is a good thing to have, but you are missing one key ingredient to make it really work... and your invisible powder doesn't work that well alone, and although you have the recipe for mind control, you dont have the ingredients

You may be right on the vitriol, but what proof do you have that I don't have the ingredients for Mind Control? If you know something more, spill it.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I'm surprised to see that LSG.

It might have been compelled.

[ntndeacon]

you think Render or the other wolf has the Command spell, path.
(we have seen that potions are shown in the forum)
I am not so sure it is compelled. it is an odd move anyway.

[hoopsguy]

NTN, a single vote/unvote post without any explanation sure seems compelled to me.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by path12

It might have been compelled.

I considered that of course. Still weak soup.

[Barkeep49]

To clarify it might very well be weak on Render's part.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

To clarify it might very well be weak on Render's part.

Why would that be weak on my part? I have stated all day that I have more than one thing to use. Whats weak about an opening gambit?

Of course in this case I don't think it was anything I did at all. I think she played around with something and tried it on herself and it backfired.

[path12]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

you think Render or the other wolf has the Command spell, path.
(we have seen that potions are shown in the forum)
I am not so sure it is compelled. it is an odd move anyway.

It was the only reason that came to me offhand.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I considered that of course. Still weak soup.

Agreed. You'd think he'd have something better than that.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by path12

Agreed. You'd think he'd have something better than that.

Tick Tock Goes the Clock
Time is slipping away
Ding dong tolls the bell
Of a lifetime squandered away

Their number is 5
More wolfies alive
Every vote must contrive
To the ending of a drive

Who will be next?
To switch their vote text?
Who might just lie?
So they do not die?

In rhymes do we find the meaning
In times often troubled and demeaning
A second vote down?
Perhaps a third turns it round?
And Saves poor RendeR's dingalingaling.

[RendeR]

"Once more unto the breach, one more vote to be beseached, whence came the most vocal to the fore. The votes will scatter forth and once more a death reporth, come st crispin's day."

[Passacaglia]

Anyone else picture render playing an accordian and dancing a jig while singing this?