WW Amazing Race - Game Over (Moles Win & Team Reebok Wins)

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

Meh. I think we messed up today, but what do you do?

I suspect you're right, but only because Zinto's probably a villager, not that we chose the wrong guy of the top two candidates. I think it's pretty likely we have two villager here. Oh well, to make an omelette...

[Danny]

Bah

[Autumn]

Double damn.

[Zinto]

Good luck villagers

[Lathum]

I think bholly is the way to go today.

[Danny]

I think I'm going to be looking strongly at Hoopsguy today. I know his schedule has been tough, but he's really stayed out of things so far and he was on my list of early day 1 voters who were not part of the Mau run.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I think bholly is the way to go today.

Really, on the chance he is the cunning wolf? Not a good percentage play with 3 wolves still out there.

[Passacaglia]

He only needs to be one of the wolves, not all 3.

[EagleFan]

When you are allowed to begin you will start at Pondicherry and you will travel to Dubai. From there...

You have a clue to the Roadblock.
Who has a keen eye? Requires Mental


You have a clue to the Detour.

Keep the rhythm: Learn a traditional dance routine and perform. Requires physical and mental.
- Specific dance or the men and for the women
- Learn it quickly and perform well and you can be on your way in no time.
- Fail to pick it up quickly and you may be there for a long time.

Navigate it: Navigate a small boat through a set course. Requires Water and Mental.
- Select a boat to navigate though a set course.

Pit Stop - Dubai Mall

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

He only needs to be one of the wolves, not all 3.

But it's a poor percentage play. We have to find all of the wolves to win. If we find the other two and what's left is the cunning then ok, but it's a terrible play to go after someone who could only be the cunning at this point.

Also, on a non-strategy point, how crappy would it be if the seer was partnered up with the cunning.

One more point, it's obvious the wolves watched closely to reactions to Mau's reveal and were targeting people they thought might be the seer. DV and Crimson were probably the two most not buying Mau's reveal.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Danny

But it's a poor percentage play. We have to find all of the wolves to win. If we find the other two and what's left is the cunning then ok, but it's a terrible play to go after someone who could only be the cunning at this point.

Also, on a non-strategy point, how crappy would it be if the seer was partnered up with the cunning.

One more point, it's obvious the wolves watched closely to reactions to Mau's reveal and were targeting people they thought might be the seer. DV and Crimson were probably the two most not buying Mau's reveal.

I think that plays into the cunning's hands, though. If you've got a read on a guy, and the cunning is in play, I think it'd be wrong not to follow that. We get the point, and a reminder that a guy has been scanned isn't always a bad thing (like how I forgot GE had been scanned earlier today), but sometimes you have to go with your thoughts rather than the numbers.

But your last paragraph is dead on, and it gives me some ideas. I'm going to bed now, but this is a reminder to myself to look at that tomo.

[EagleFan]

Leg Four In Pictures


Chennai Airport








Spencer Plaza

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Danny

I think I'm going to be looking strongly at Hoopsguy today. I know his schedule has been tough, but he's really stayed out of things so far and he was on my list of early day 1 voters who were not part of the Mau run.

I don't know how much action you'll be able to coax out of me. I'll participate in the thread where I can, but tomorrow I'll be visiting a client for the first time and don't even know if I'll have access to the site.

Anyway, if enough people think I'm the right play then it will be another bad day for the village.

If there are in-game reasons to suspect me, and I think I could come up with a couple if I was leading a charge, then go with those. But my participation in the thread is not a particularly good indicator of my allegiance, or at least I try exceedingly hard not to make that a "leak" in my game. I'm as active as I can be in every game I play, villager or wolf.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Danny

Really, on the chance he is the cunning wolf? Not a good percentage play with 3 wolves still out there.

If I'm the cunning then why did it take until night 3 to kill the seer? The wolves had a day kill in their pocket (in all likelyhood) as well remember. So under Lathum's scenario either DV didn't tell me about the scans until late on day 3 (which wouldn't make any sense, why scan me right away if you don't trust it) or I just decided not to kill the seer for a couple of days for the fun of it, and went after CF instead.

Out of the two of us I'd have thought there was more chance of GE being the cunning (which I don't believe either).

[saldana]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

If I'm the cunning then why did it take until night 3 to kill the seer? The wolves had a day kill in their pocket (in all likelyhood) as well remember. So under Lathum's scenario either DV didn't tell me about the scans until late on day 3 (which wouldn't make any sense, why scan me right away if you don't trust it) or I just decided not to kill the seer for a couple of days for the fun of it, and went after CF instead.

Out of the two of us I'd have thought there was more chance of GE being the cunning (which I don't believe either).

i am willing to bet anything that the day kill didnt become usable until yesterday. they didnt have anything "in their pocket" or they would have taken it out and used it.

when you're a wolf, you dont hold killls back, even if all you achieve is confusion.

[PackerFanatic]

Really?? That is a pretty lame way to go out...we never specified to stay in Chennai, assuming the roadblock or whatever else would be in Pondicherry. *sigh*

[PackerFanatic]

Sorry cougar, guess I got over-zealous with the aggression, heh.

[Autumn]

I'm just going with a gut vote here. There are some voting reasons to bark up this tree, but to be honest it's mostly just a vibe.

VOTE DANNY

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

If I'm the cunning then why did it take until night 3 to kill the seer? The wolves had a day kill in their pocket (in all likelyhood) as well remember. So under Lathum's scenario either DV didn't tell me about the scans until late on day 3 (which wouldn't make any sense, why scan me right away if you don't trust it) or I just decided not to kill the seer for a couple of days for the fun of it, and went after CF instead.

Out of the two of us I'd have thought there was more chance of GE being the cunning (which I don't believe either).

If the wolves had a day kill they would have used it on DV, no question, you don't risk letting him get another scan in. I'm sure they didn't get it until shortly before they used it.

And we have no proof, bhlloy, that Darth told you anything. You "revealed" that Darth told you he was the seer after his death. You might have found out the same way as everyone else.

I'm not voting Bhlloy right now because I think his reveal is fairly solid and doesn't have a lot of holes in it. I'm going to assume for now that it's true. The other wolf moves have not been airtight, it would be surprising if they pulled this out of their pocket suddenly.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I'm just going with a gut vote here. There are some voting reasons to bark up this tree, but to be honest it's mostly just a vibe.

VOTE DANNY

Eat a sandwich and then reconsider your vote

[Danny]

Vote Courgarfreak. This may change, but I want to apply some pressure here.

[ntndeacon]

I may have missed it being out most of yesterday, but do we know for sure this "benefit" for the wolves is a day kill? I thought I had seen where Eagle had talked about a couple of things that could be unlocked forthe wolves, not just one.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

I may have missed it being out most of yesterday, but do we know for sure this "benefit" for the wolves is a day kill? I thought I had seen where Eagle had talked about a couple of things that could be unlocked forthe wolves, not just one.

I think you did miss it -- Lathum was killed in the middle of the day yesterday.

[ntndeacon]

ahhh thanks Pass.

[hoopsguy]

Wow, very very slow start to the day.

I've got very limited access to the site today, but will at least throw a vote down before leaving for the day. Not sure if it matters, but if there are questions about activity level I expect tomorrow to be 10x better for me than today.

[EagleFan]

As of post 1225:

Danny 1 - Autumn (1218)

[Passacaglia]

EF, are you not counting Danny's vote? I think he has problems using bold on his phone, but he tried to vote for cougarfreak.

[Autumn]

I don't think Cougarfreak is a good vote, actually. His vote on day one is as solid as they come.

[Autumn]

Frankly, I think another place to vote is on the top team. Chief and Hoops being in first place could have something to do with having unlocked a wolf bonus. I"m not sold on either of them as wolves just based on voting records, but they're certainly on the list of suspects. The fact that they've also established such a lead, combined with the unknown wolf bonus mechanics, makes me suspicious.

[GoldenEagle]

I am not really sure where to go at this point. If we miss today, we are in trouble. They are 12 people left and we assume a 9:3 ratio. It is not a panic stage yet, but we need to make sure we get one today.

I still think ntn and Danny are the two best options. I will likely vote one of those two today. I got to get some work done this afternoon, so I will probably not be back until around the deadline.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Frankly, I think another place to vote is on the top team. Chief and Hoops being in first place could have something to do with having unlocked a wolf bonus. I"m not sold on either of them as wolves just based on voting records, but they're certainly on the list of suspects. The fact that they've also established such a lead, combined with the unknown wolf bonus mechanics, makes me suspicious.

While I understand where you're coming from, I think you should think that one through.

We know that allegiances were rolled after teams were rolled, and that there is no connection between the two other than what random.org may provide. If you're suggesting that our success is possibly based on wolf mechanics being used, you're either saying that one of us is a wolf but somehow we're benefitting it without the non-wolf teammate knowing, or you're saying that, much less likely, we're both wolves and that EF designed mechanics for an all-wolf team he didn't even have set up in his rules and that was unlikely to happen in the first place, based on likely wolf numbers versus villagers.

You really have to leap through some hoops (pun intended) to reach this conclusion and actually believe it's likely, and even just accepting the possibility seems to be a serious stretch.

I know I and hoops will attract attention just because of our veteran status as WW players, even aside from our success in the race stage. But I think we need to be careful about trying to draw conclusions like these and going down roads that just lead us away from wolves. I know I am not a wolf, and you say you have seen indications of that for both of us. I don't get a wolf vibe from hoops either, whether here in thread or in PMs.

FWIW, although it's a bit metagamey, hoops ain't lying about being busy. I am busy, too. We actually share at best 2-3 PMs a day, and it has all been race stuff or telling each other we're too busy to do much race stuff ( ); we haven't even discussed WW stuff. In fact, I'm a bit proud that we have managed to put together winning race strategies in the short times that we have had.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

EF, are you not counting Danny's vote? I think he has problems using bold on his phone, but he tried to vote for cougarfreak.

only bold, don't want to open that potential can of worms...

[Danny]

Honestly, I mostly voted cougar to see what his response would be. I don't see him responding yet and there doesn't seem to be much support anyway, so ill likely end up "officially" voting elsewhere

[Autumn]

Chief, I'm suggesting that one of you could be a wolf, and that the wolves could benefit from things like winning a leg, or being in first place. It doesn't require much to jump to that conclusion though I admit there's nothing to base it on other than a guess. I feel quite sure that there are some relations between how/what the wolves do in the race and unlocking their kill.

If you guys had sterling records I wouldn't bother considering it, but given that you both are on my list of folks with votes that could be wolf-ish, I'm keeping it in mind.

[Danny]

Autumn, if you had to choose between hoops and cr at this point, who would you choose?
I'm not getting a wolfish feel from autumn despite his current vote on me.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Chief, I'm suggesting that one of you could be a wolf, and that the wolves could benefit from things like winning a leg, or being in first place. It doesn't require much to jump to that conclusion though I admit there's nothing to base it on other than a guess. I feel quite sure that there are some relations between how/what the wolves do in the race and unlocking their kill.

If you guys had sterling records I wouldn't bother considering it, but given that you both are on my list of folks with votes that could be wolf-ish, I'm keeping it in mind.

Like I said, I understand you're thinking here, I just don't see how a wolf-villager team coukld be taking advanatge of wolf mechanics without the villager teammate knowing. And it's not like either hoops or I is a spring chicken. If that was going on with the other teammate, the villager among us would definitely notice. Since that hasn't happened, your only logical line of thinking would be to assume we're both wolves (odds are high against that) AND that EF has designed wolf mechanics for us to use in that situation (an odd design decision, if true, given "wolf teams" are very unlikely, based on numbers).

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Like I said, I understand you're thinking here, I just don't see how a wolf-villager team coukld be taking advanatge of wolf mechanics without the villager teammate knowing. And it's not like either hoops or I is a spring chicken. If that was going on with the other teammate, the villager among us would definitely notice. Since that hasn't happened, your only logical line of thinking would be to assume we're both wolves (odds are high against that) AND that EF has designed wolf mechanics for us to use in that situation (an odd design decision, if true, given "wolf teams" are very unlikely, based on numbers).

Why would the other teammate have to know anything? perhaps the mechanic simply rewards a wolf for achieving first place, to give a very simple example. The other teammate wouldn't have to know anything. Perhaps the wolves can help or sabotage a team behind the scenes, to give another example.

I do think each of us should be watching out for any signs of such things from our teammates, however. You're right, Chief, that we could detect something if the wolf was trying to urge us to put a ton of points on an event or something.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Danny

Autumn, if you had to choose between hoops and cr at this point, who would you choose?
I'm not getting a wolfish feel from autumn despite his current vote on me.

I suppose I would go with Chief, simply because he has a lot of vote movement on day one that looks suspicious. Hoops I'd really have to go back and look more, he hasn't been as out in front.

[Passacaglia]

I'm getting a really defensive vibe from Chief the past couple days.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Like I said, I understand you're thinking here, I just don't see how a wolf-villager team coukld be taking advanatge of wolf mechanics without the villager teammate knowing. And it's not like either hoops or I is a spring chicken. If that was going on with the other teammate, the villager among us would definitely notice. Since that hasn't happened, your only logical line of thinking would be to assume we're both wolves (odds are high against that) AND that EF has designed wolf mechanics for us to use in that situation (an odd design decision, if true, given "wolf teams" are very unlikely, based on numbers).

This makes no sense to me. I'm not really sold on Autumn's reasoning here, but I am with him in wondering how a villager teammate would have to know what his wolf teammate is up to. Maybe Danny and saldana can shed some light on that one, though.

[Autumn]

That said, I should say if I was going to vote one of them I would do more digging before I voted either way.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Why would the other teammate have to know anything? perhaps the mechanic simply rewards a wolf for achieving first place, to give a very simple example. The other teammate wouldn't have to know anything. Perhaps the wolves can help or sabotage a team behind the scenes, to give another example.

I do think each of us should be watching out for any signs of such things from our teammates, however. You're right, Chief, that we could detect something if the wolf was trying to urge us to put a ton of points on an event or something.

Jumping in now, and I can't vouch for how EF would run the game but I can say that there is nothing in the PMs that we have received from EF that have given any indication of a separation between villager/wolf benefits from winning.

I've put at least as much time into putting together the race information as I have in the thread, which is probably leading to less participation in the thread. Only have so much time, and the research on how to optimize race stuff (travel, trying to create edges for what events may be) has sucked up some of my critical analysis of posts, vote histories, etc.

Anyway, got sidetracked there a bit. But I do want to emphasize that there is nothing in shared PMs that Chief and I have received (and I haven't been getting any non-shared PMs) that gives me reason to suspect CR any more or less than what we've seen in the thread we all share.

[hoopsguy]

At this point, if I had to lay down a vote it would probably go towards Danny. I've seen him dictate tempo a lot more as a villager than what I've seen this game. By comparison, his last wolf game he kept a very low profile. I'm worried that I'm seeing this because 1.) he indicated distrust in me last night and 2.) because I'm still annoyed at how little attention he got in his last wolf game. But that is where my gut says I should be voting right now.

I'm going to go through a quick player review and throw together what amounts to my "in the moment" trust list and see if that exercise helps me with my voting process today.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Jumping in now, and I can't vouch for how EF would run the game but I can say that there is nothing in the PMs that we have received from EF that have given any indication of a separation between villager/wolf benefits from winning.
.

except them getting a bonus daytime kill

[JAG]

Vote Danny

To this point I don't see any reasoning that makes me feel different than I did last night when I thought Danny was the best chance to be a wolf of the remaining people.

Autumn, I'm not sure about your idea with the race mechanic. I know mckerney and I have been in first once and second twice and I can vouch for what hoops is saying in that I never received a PM from EF, either joint or individual. It seems like a wolf bonus like that could be rather unbalancing without villagers getting some kind of benefit. To this point we don't have any evidence that anything race-related has an impact on the WW game.

[JAG]

Lathum, can you shed any light on your unblockable bonus (is that race or WW related) or would it not be beneficial to let the wolves know?

[bhlloy]

My gut says Danny, but I'd like to take a closer look at CR's history as well. He has been unusually defensive the last couple of days and he's just not as analytic or involved in this game as I've seen him be. Whether that's because he's a wolf trying not to draw attention or because of circumstance, I have no idea. Just get a very un-CR vibe from him in this game.

I don't feel ntn as a wolf as I've said before. He was about an hour away from being voted off day 1 until the MartinD reveal and I don't remember anyone putting anything forward to try and save him. Unless he's a roled wolf and MartinD was a sacrifice but nobody seemed to think that was remotely realistic.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

except them getting a bonus daytime kill

I was talking about the PMs that I've been on with Chief. There certainly wasn't anything along those lines that I've seen.

There pretty much have to be separate PMs sent to the wolves, but I can tell you that on our time I've done a lot of the legwork on putting together the instructions for the first three days and Chief did almost everything yesterday. We've seen the effort listed in the PMs and that amount balances with what I got from EF's report (no changes in aggression/effort) that he sent last night.

So if I'm inadvertently propping up a wolf teammate, I'm doing it completely in the dark. I would expect, therefore, that other villagers would be working under similar circumstances. Is it possible? Yeah, absolutely. But I haven't felt a shifting hand from Chief Rum trying to get us to do anything way out of the ordinary to achieve results either ... just trying to provide clarification on this as a team who has had some success in the race so far.

[hoopsguy]

Here are my impressions on people, which are almost entirely shaped by the Day 1 vote. It is important to note that if NTN was a wolf that would dramatically change the (relative) trust dynamics.

I would like to take some time to dig through yesterday's posts, but I'm out of time for right now. Don't know how much I'll be on between now and deadline, other than to drop a vote before heading out for the day.

1. Autumn - avoided Mau + NTN on D1
3. Passacaglia - non-factor on D1 (NTN vote creating 3 way tie)
4. mckerney - early vote on Mau
5. PackerFanatic - first vote on Mau, would wolves had had 2 of 3 first votes on him?
8. JAG
10. ntndeacon - forced into defensive D1
11. bhlloy - purportedly scanned by DV, early vote on Mau
12. cougarfreak - key vote on Mau
15. Danny - introduced NTN as candidate, don't think that NTN/Danny are likely to be wolves together
16. Chief Rum - Mau voted for him early D1, somewhat erratic D1 voting (on/off candidates)
17. hoopsguy - I know I'm a villager
19. GoldenEagle - purportedly scanned by DV

[Chief Rum]

Pass, you see me as overly defensive because I am annoyed trying to repeatedly point out a lack of logic in your own dogged pursuit of me, and your seeming unwillingness to consider the possibility I am a villager or that there might be better candidates. It's easy to get defensive in that situation.

I have presented the information on my votes for Day One. Anyone interested can feel free to fidn them to see what was going on with them.

I am looking forward to an actual logical argument to lynch me.