WW LXVI: Money Money Money (Game Over!)

[The Jackal]

I think that the longer we wait, the worse shape we're going to be in for end game. Problem is, who knows who's been bribed already. But as we're losing villagers, we're losing that advantage of many more votes than the cutthroats.

I'm going to go out on a limb and start this off.

Vote End Game

Obviously this will be irrelevant if other people don't agree with me, but someone had to start it.

[Chief Rum]

Oh, and I would have had FOB on Day 1 if my bid had been more apparent to Barkeep. That's out there, too.

[hoopsguy]

DT, there is a lot about the Cutthroat game that the Rich don't know.

Tyrith put it pretty well after Night 3 when he suggested that in a game where we have no successful seer scans, no blocks, and a pile of dead villagers that we should not be able to win by voting endgame if the ruleset stands up.

So that is what I'm worried about. As I crunch the numbers making conventional WW assumptions I think we are in very good shape. But our play up to this point, in terms of results (one wolf, seven dead villagers) is mediocre at best.

If we want to take this down to the wire like a traditional werewolf game (kill/bankrupt 'em all) I feel reasonably good about our chances. Like I said before, I think we take a hard look at SnDvls + Clap, look back at Passacaglia's play, and make a call from there for today.

But if people want to go the money route, I'm good with having that discussion and will give exact details on my money if that becomes a critical element in making decisions.

[hoopsguy]

Chief, are you willing to disclose some FOB information from earlier to help with either voting patterns or making end-game decisions? I think the information is more likely to help with the former, as the wolves probably went CD or on-hand for the majority of their cash.

[hoopsguy]

Chief, thanks for the corrections/updates. Can you provide the sum total of those purchases, saving me having to go back and look those up?

I don't think it has a huge impact on the money analysis, but I want to tighten up the numbers when there is data available.

[Alan T]

First observation is.. its amazing that I am able to realize how much Hoops posts now that my quote is in his signature.. every time I came across it, I had to double take to figure out the subject of the post!

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

i'm all for voting for chief rum!

Okay, you have said this twice now in pretty short succession. Do you have anything else that makes you believe I am guilty than what Mr. W said? I have alreayd refuted that. If you fall for that move by Pass, frankly, you're being foolish.

Although I have been talked about by people as being someone they have "bad feelings" about, just what exact evidence is there out there against me? And you have done barely anything except drop accusations without reason.

How about this? As of the end of Day Four, The Jackal had $10,000 in the bank. There, I have now provided more useful information than you have the entire game.

I am beginning to strongly suspect you are trying to get a bandwagon going against me because you know I am not a wolf. And there's only one way for you to know that for sure.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

DT: 90K (assuming good based on hanging vote yesterday)

Hmm, didn't catch that. Well, he's probably good then, but pretty darn misguided if so.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Upon further review, I'm missing another villager in that list. So you can probably assign another 90K, give or take, to the villager side.

I think there are probably two original wolves between the group of SnDvls, Clap, Chief Rum, and Schmidty. And if the wolves were making a money play for last night's bribe then these four are among the best candidates out there in terms of voting records and lack of disclosed big-money services.

What exactly is bad about my voting record? And you know what services I bid on on three of the four days (and now the fourth--I bid for but did not win the Seer service on Day 2).

[hoopsguy]

Tyrith, did you get a breakdown of assets for The Jackal?

Jackal, can you give us a rundown of how you accumulated 78K in money up to this point? And, if you don't mind since information is out there already, list where you have kept money for each day (in hand, bank, CD)?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Chief, are you willing to disclose some FOB information from earlier to help with either voting patterns or making end-game decisions? I think the information is more likely to help with the former, as the wolves probably went CD or on-hand for the majority of their cash.

Sure, if it will help, and if it will also show I am a villager (since some need convincing apparently). I'm not sure how much good it does, though. I only know totals for players as of the end of Day Four and only the money they had in the bank.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Chief, thanks for the corrections/updates. Can you provide the sum total of those purchases, saving me having to go back and look those up?

I don't think it has a huge impact on the money analysis, but I want to tighten up the numbers when there is data available.

Got it, you basically made the same observation. Well, if it will help.

[Alan T]

Next observation I have.. in regards to Passacaglia's death.. it seems the assumptions are either:

1) He was trying to make a play to either steer us to or away Chief Rum

or

2) He was trying to get some of us to spend extra cash to make sure he was lynched.


I don't think it could possibly be 2. If that was his intention, why would he wait till the last possible second to post it, where it would be too late for any votes to retaliate.. In my mind 2 is out completely as an option.

I think his move was either: #1 either to steer us to/from Chief Rum or even to just mess with us to have fun as he was being voted out...

Another option I think should be considered is #3 he just screwed up, and thought he had more money than he did.

Its a tough situation to figure though, because if it is #1, then I don't know if it says anything good/bad about Chief, but it also makes me question Tyrith who predicted it and also appeared to look as trying to have stopped it, but just a second too late so it didn't cost him anything.

I personally think I'm leaning towards option #3 though right now which no one has mentioned prior to now (that I noticed at least).. and if that is the case then I think it helps me feel better about Chief Rum, it solidifies how I felt about Tyrith already based on his previous interaction with Passacaglia and it helps me feel better about DaddyTorgo.

So going forward I guess I have two different scenerios for CoT right now..

If option #3:


Trust:
3. hoopsguy
14. Mr. Wednesday

Feel they are Good:
9. Chief Rum
16. DaddyTorgo
18. Tyrith

Leaning Good:
13. SnDvls

Everyone Else:
5. Render
8. The Jackal
11. Schmidty
12. claphamsa



If option #1 as some had said, then this is how I see it:

Trust:
3. hoopsguy
14. Mr. Wednesday

Leaning Good:
13. SnDvls

Slight distrust:
16. DaddyTorgo
18. Tyrith

Everyone Else:
5. Render
8. The Jackal
9. Chief Rum
11. Schmidty
12. claphamsa

So perhaps part of it for me is wishful thinking that it is option #3 as it would help me feel better about the current situation we are in, but I think it also lines up with my previous thoughts about how I felt Passacaglia tried to play a "rope a dope" with Hoopsguy into getting Tyrith lynched previously as well.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

What exactly is bad about my voting record? And you know what services I bid on on three of the four days (and now the fourth--I bid for but did not win the Seer service on Day 2).

Your voting record, in that you have voted all four days.

In case I haven't made it pretty clear along the way, I don't think that you are one of the original Cutthroats. I seem to be going against the opinion of some other players with that opinion, but if you started off bad then you've done a good job of keeping me off-balance.

Now as a candidate for conversion last night, the fact that you voted all four days and are not associated with a 20K+ purchase like MrW and Alan (who is vouching for MrW) makes you a more attractive candidate. You could say the same thing about me if you were so inclined.

[Chief Rum]

Well, if that is the reasoning for everyone, then it seems I need to be scanned, so you guys can know one way or another.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, why do you lean towards good with SnDvls? That is the candidate that we seem to be the furthest apart on right now.

[Alan T]

My next observation is in regards to whether it should be voted to end the game today or not.. I can safely say that I am absolutely not ready to vote either way tonight. I need to spend time trying to figure out how much money I think each side may have, and I won't have the time for that this evening. I likely will have to look into it further tommorrow when I have more time at work.

One question I have for Barkeep: Can you unvote the vote to end the game or not? Can you vote multiple times for it for additional cost?

My initial gut instinct however right now which is based on my previous thought regarding my personal trust list is that if things are playing out as I -think- they are, Right now I feel pretty good about 6 people and have only 4 that I don't feel great about. I partially am wondering if it is more risky to gamble over how much money the wolves started with in ending the game in a chance to possibly just hand them the game? If we make sure we bid enough to get the night assassin today, combined with today's and tommorrow's lynch that is 3 of the 4 people on the list that we could take out.

I would feel that we would have to be as Hoops said in one of his posts in pretty ok shape "traditional" Werewolf wise.. Perhaps its best to pursue that goal instead.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Hmm, didn't catch that. Well, he's probably good then, but pretty darn misguided if so.

wouldn't be the first time i've been misguided.

I can certainly see your point as far as pass trying to mislead, that would be the smart wolf play.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Your voting record, in that you have voted all four days.

In case I haven't made it pretty clear along the way, I don't think that you are one of the original Cutthroats. I seem to be going against the opinion of some other players with that opinion, but if you started off bad then you've done a good job of keeping me off-balance.

Now as a candidate for conversion last night, the fact that you voted all four days and are not associated with a 20K+ purchase like MrW and Alan (who is vouching for MrW) makes you a more attractive candidate. You could say the same thing about me if you were so inclined.

So then shouldn't you include yourself on the list?

I would think it silly if you were to hang me because I was wiser with my money than some others. Considering the point is for us to have more money than the wolves. If we follow this logic, maybe you're right and we net a wolf, maybe even two. But then we bankrupt, what, two of the richest Riches left? How would that help us? Then we put ourselves in the position of hopin gthose Riches move their money before deadline and move it to non-wolves. And the wolves we already know that money will go to another wolf, no doubts about it.

As a spotlight for finding wolves, it's decent. As a strategy in a game where we need to have more than the wolves, not so much.

[Alan T]

My next thought which shouldn't really be a suprise to people is that I think it is a mistake to try to guess who might or might not be the conversion target. I think it seems pretty obvious that we likely had a conversion last night, and that we hadn't had one prior to that most likely.

Perhaps it is a tad bit self-serving on my part as I figure I was one of the conversion possibilities, but we have most likely a really small list of possible original wolves from which there has to be at least one more if not two more within. If we start trying to guess who the conversion target was, it pretty much opens us to lynching anyone again.. I think that would be a mistake at this point that could cost us the game.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

DT, there is a lot about the Cutthroat game that the Rich don't know.

Tyrith put it pretty well after Night 3 when he suggested that in a game where we have no successful seer scans, no blocks, and a pile of dead villagers that we should not be able to win by voting endgame if the ruleset stands up.

So that is what I'm worried about. As I crunch the numbers making conventional WW assumptions I think we are in very good shape. But our play up to this point, in terms of results (one wolf, seven dead villagers) is mediocre at best.

If we want to take this down to the wire like a traditional werewolf game (kill/bankrupt 'em all) I feel reasonably good about our chances. Like I said before, I think we take a hard look at SnDvls + Clap, look back at Passacaglia's play, and make a call from there for today.

But if people want to go the money route, I'm good with having that discussion and will give exact details on my money if that becomes a critical element in making decisions.

why me again?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Alan, why do you lean towards good with SnDvls? That is the candidate that we seem to be the furthest apart on right now.

It goes back to my original reason why I was suspicious of Pass in the first place. The conversation regarding whom might have been a "veteran" wolf that would have gotten rid of Lathum. Passacaglia spent a good bit of the morning trying to convince myself as well as a couple of other people to look at Sndvls and question him. I just didn't see anything there and it felt halfway forced to me... after a while of that and realizing he wasn't gaining any ground, it appeared he shifted directions and tried to get people to go after Tyrith instead.

He seemed that day to me to be passive-agressively trying to convince others to "lead the charge" against those two. That is probably the main gut reason why both Tyrith and Sndvls felt decently good to me prior to yesterday, and why I think my suggestion for what happened at Passacaglia's lynch is more likely in my mind as it makes me feel even better about Tyrith. The alternative makes me question Tyrith and feel he could be bad, which I don't think really jives very well for my earlier thoughts/feelings.

[DaddyTorgo]

I agree. You save the likely conversion target for last and go after who would be the traditional wolves. It's the only play that makes sense...stay on course and don't let a potential conversion mess up your plan.

the other alternative is that they tried to convert but failed? I don't know how the cutthroat's rules work, if they can do something else if they fail or not, and thus could have tried conversions before and failed and last night succeeded or what. But that's a potential too

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Alan T

It goes back to my original reason why I was suspicious of Pass in the first place. The conversation regarding whom might have been a "veteran" wolf that would have gotten rid of Lathum. Passacaglia spent a good bit of the morning trying to convince myself as well as a couple of other people to look at Sndvls and question him. I just didn't see anything there and it felt halfway forced to me... after a while of that and realizing he wasn't gaining any ground, it appeared he shifted directions and tried to get people to go after Tyrith instead.

He seemed that day to me to be passive-agressively trying to convince others to "lead the charge" against those two. That is probably the main gut reason why both Tyrith and Sndvls felt decently good to me prior to yesterday, and why I think my suggestion for what happened at Passacaglia's lynch is more likely in my mind as it makes me feel even better about Tyrith. The alternative makes me question Tyrith and feel he could be bad, which I don't think really jives very well for my earlier thoughts/feelings.

ok

so not you, hoops, mr.w, me, tyrith, sndvls

who else could be an original-wolf...hmm

[Chief Rum]

BTW, did everyone already know that you can sue your money in the bank on votes, bids, etc. or am I just late to the game? I realized I didn't know for sure Friday night and asked Barkeep via PM, and he said money on hand AND in the bank can be used for bidding.

Since only money on hand can be taken directly by the wolves via killing, any villager who knows this would have kept their available money (non-CD) in the bank. So anyone with "0" in the bank at any point (especially on nights they don't win a service) has to be a little more suspicious.

And, of course, I know who had 0 in their accounts as of the end of Day Four, FWIW.

[Chief Rum]

"sue" in previous post is a typo intended to read "use".

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

BTW, did everyone already know that you can sue your money in the bank on votes, bids, etc. or am I just late to the game? I realized I didn't know for sure Friday night and asked Barkeep via PM, and he said money on hand AND in the bank can be used for bidding.

Since only money on hand can be taken directly by the wolves via killing, any villager who knows this would have kept their available money (non-CD) in the bank. So anyone with "0" in the bank at any point (especially on nights they don't win a service) has to be a little more suspicious.

And, of course, I know who had 0 in their accounts as of the end of Day Four, FWIW.

Yeah, we talked about it briefly yesterday when I mentioned I wasn't aware of that either. I believe what was said was money on hand or in the bank was available for bids on services, votes and gifts to other players. Anything in a CD is not movable until it matures other than being passed to the person's beneficiary in the case of a night kill.

I did not bid on any services yesterday (for the first time all game), however I am not saying currently if I put my money into the bank, in a CD or kept on hand. One thing I still am not sure about however is whether or not money in CDs count to the final totals to win the game or not?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

why me again?

Because there are a bunch of candidates who don't make sense as an original wolf and only so many people left in the game.

You have voted all four times - that is good behavior on either side, but it is imperative for the minority side to get money every chance they get. I'm much more inclined to believe that a villager misses votes (Render twice, Jackal once) than a wolf.

You haven't been scanned at any point in the game. No one has provided information on you like Tyrith did on Jackal that supports the idea that you are any more likely to be a villager or bad guy.

In short, based on a lack of known actions (successful bids revealed that are unchallenged) and a lack of actions taken against you, you are one of the people that is hardest to place in the game.

[RendeR]

"Avoid the Clap"

Its really good advice....


VOTE CLAPHAMSA

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

BTW, did everyone already know that you can sue your money in the bank on votes, bids, etc. or am I just late to the game? I realized I didn't know for sure Friday night and asked Barkeep via PM, and he said money on hand AND in the bank can be used for bidding.

Since only money on hand can be taken directly by the wolves via killing, any villager who knows this would have kept their available money (non-CD) in the bank. So anyone with "0" in the bank at any point (especially on nights they don't win a service) has to be a little more suspicious.

And, of course, I know who had 0 in their accounts as of the end of Day Four, FWIW.

Yep, I mentioned that when you said there were several people with no money in the bank.

I'm all for a public discussion on this topic, but ultimately it is your call.

[Alan T]

Ok, so Tyrith stated Jackal had 78k total? Now assuming I am right about Tyrith and that he can be trusted, that tells us one of the following is true:

1) Jackal is a wolf and they didn't start with any more money than we did..

2) Jackal is not a wolf

3) we were just unlucky and Jackal is a wolf but had moved his money to someone else.

Considering Passacaglia had to have shipped off his money to a fellow wolf, if there were two wolves to start, it would have to have been Jackal (if he was the partner wolf).. if there were three wolves to start, then it would be a 50/50 chance Jackal would have alot more cash.

I think for now, I don't add Jackal to my trusted list, but I think I feel as good about him as I do about Sndvls for now. Of course if I'm wrong about Tyrith/Daddytorgo/Chief Rum, then well my entire CoT completely falls apart and I've pretty much been horrible at this game as Tyrith being bad could be feeding us a lie here on Jackal too.. but for now if I am making the leap of faith that Tyrith is good, I think I won't be voting for Jackal today.

[Alan T]

I think right now I am looking at Schmidty, Claphasma or Render for today's vote.. I find it interesting that Render was quick to get out a vote on one of the others on the list. I feel at least decently good that we could even have 2 wolves out of the three names here.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I think there are probably two original wolves between the group of SnDvls, Clap, Chief Rum, and Schmidty. And if the wolves were making a money play for last night's bribe then these four are among the best candidates out there in terms of voting records and lack of disclosed big-money services.

Interesting. Of the four named above in hoops' latest list of potential wolves, three of them had no money in the bank as of the end of Day Four.

...and...

Originally Posted by Alan T

If option #3:

...

Everyone Else:
5. Render
8. The Jackal
11. Schmidty
12. claphamsa



If option #1 as some had said, then this is how I see it:

...

Everyone Else:
5. Render
8. The Jackal
9. Chief Rum
11. Schmidty
12. claphamsa

...from Alan's analysis of guys he feels good/bad about (given his presented two scenarios), three of the four on that first list had no money in thew bank, and four of the five on his second list had no money.

And in the interest of full disclosure, yes, I didn't have any money in the bank either, as I didn't realize you could use money in the bank for bids.

[RendeR]

I will gladly discuss my cash on hand, if thats what the group decides to do. Forgive me if I'm missing something obvious, its been a long day.

[hoopsguy]

Assuming that Jackal is good, I don't think that SnDvls and Clap are on the same team. They voted for the same people on Days 2 and 3.

Day 2 - Mauboy vs Saldana was villager vs villager
Day 3 - Me vs Jackal was villager (so I say, Alan's scan backs it up) vs (presumed?) villager

If Jackal is a wolf, then I'm surprised if there is a wolf vote on him in a 4-4 tie. So consider this yet another reason that I think Jackal is likely to be a villager.

But, going back to my original point - I don't think there is any reason for two wolves to vote together on back-to-back days in tight villager vs villager showdowns. So I think you've got one wolf and one villager out of those two guys.

I'll go back and evaluate the timing on the votes to make sure that this argument holds up, but it makes sense to me strictly on final results.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Yeah, we talked about it briefly yesterday when I mentioned I wasn't aware of that either. I believe what was said was money on hand or in the bank was available for bids on services, votes and gifts to other players. Anything in a CD is not movable until it matures other than being passed to the person's beneficiary in the case of a night kill.

I did not bid on any services yesterday (for the first time all game), however I am not saying currently if I put my money into the bank, in a CD or kept on hand. One thing I still am not sure about however is whether or not money in CDs count to the final totals to win the game or not?

Well, this would explain another bit of information I received from the account lists.

As for your last question, I don't know if this was said publically, or if it was just me in a bunch of question PMs to BK near the start of the game, but I know that money in CDs do not count toward end game (so I have been using Day One's mostly).

If we vote End Game, we should do it at Night, when CDs have matured (unless we have reason to believe the wolves have more tied into CDs than we do, of course).

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I think right now I am looking at Schmidty, Claphasma or Render for today's vote.. I find it interesting that Render was quick to get out a vote on one of the others on the list. I feel at least decently good that we could even have 2 wolves out of the three names here.

Honestly Alan, I put that vote in without regard to anything posted thus far other than who everyone seemed to trust the least. Out fo those it seems like Clap has been a good target recently and I went with him because I had a good joke to use. "Avoid the Clap- Jimmy Dugans" "Thats good advice!!!"

Sorry, I watched A League of their own yesterday, I found the connection to clap's name too easy to pass up.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Interesting. Of the four named above in hoops' latest list of potential wolves, three of them had no money in the bank as of the end of Day Four.

...and...



...from Alan's analysis of guys he feels good/bad about (given his presented two scenarios), three of the four on that first list had no money in thew bank, and four of the five on his second list had no money.

And in the interest of full disclosure, yes, I didn't have any money in the bank either, as I didn't realize you could use money in the bank for bids.

Since you have already said that Jackal had 10K in the bank, that means that SnDvls was the other person to have money and the others did not.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Yep, I mentioned that when you said there were several people with no money in the bank.

I'm all for a public discussion on this topic, but ultimately it is your call.

I have offered a little more up above. I can go full disclosure, if needed, but realize doing so will also reveal who has the most money in the bank as of the end of that day, too, and we may want to weigh that against the need to get this information out there. What do you and others think?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I have offered a little more up above. I can go full disclosure, if needed, but realize doing so will also reveal who has the most money in the bank as of the end of that day, too, and we may want to weigh that against the need to get this information out there. What do you and others think?

I don't think it would be a good idea, nor do I think it is necessary. I think you can provide information about the people whom we are questioning the most, but I also think it might be good to use the information just as a check to make sure those people stay honest as well. It should be pretty easy this game for people to be able to account for where there money has been if they are honest about it.

I don't see any reason to reveal to the wolves information about people we are not going to be looking at today.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Because there are a bunch of candidates who don't make sense as an original wolf and only so many people left in the game.

You have voted all four times - that is good behavior on either side, but it is imperative for the minority side to get money every chance they get. I'm much more inclined to believe that a villager misses votes (Render twice, Jackal once) than a wolf.

You haven't been scanned at any point in the game. No one has provided information on you like Tyrith did on Jackal that supports the idea that you are any more likely to be a villager or bad guy.

In short, based on a lack of known actions (successful bids revealed that are unchallenged) and a lack of actions taken against you, you are one of the people that is hardest to place in the game.

i got robbed last night.... does that make you feel better?

[hoopsguy]

Chief, I think you've offered up enough to get a good discussion going.

Do any of the people who Chief has suggested did not have money in the bank - Clap, RendeR, Schmidty - want to challenge his claim?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

i got robbed last night.... does that make you feel better?

Was the money you had on hand taken or the money in the bank?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

i got robbed last night.... does that make you feel better?

Did they take money from your bank account or on-hand money?

[hoopsguy]

Damn, type too slowly

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Since you have already said that Jackal had 10K in the bank, that means that SnDvls was the other person to have money and the others did not.

Yup. Not really too hard to put two and two together there, I know, but I didn't really intend for it to be.

I think The Jackal is good for missing the vote and other reasons stated above. I am also leaning toward Render being good, as he also missed a vote.

It's not an outright clear, but it's good enough for now for me to look elsewhere.

For me, that leaves Schmidty and clap as original wolves.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

i got robbed last night.... does that make you feel better?

Well, that's interesting. Is there a service besides the Thief that robs?

[Alan T]

Can someone with a better memory than me recall which two votes Render missed and what the final totals were? I remember at least one of the votes (if not both) he was actually around for and just didn't vote.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Well, that's interesting. Is there a service besides the Thief that robs?

Not that is published in the rules, best I can tell.

Is this about to get more interesting?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Did they take money from your bank account or on-hand money?

Well, assuming it happened before he could submit his financial actions yesterday, it should have been all on hand--he had no money in the bank, and I assume any money he had in a CD would have been safe from robbery.