01-18-2010, 07:37 PM | #1201 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Early, TX
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Vote J23
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01-18-2010, 07:50 PM | #1202 | ||
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2004
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Quote:
I think the Schizo is extremely useful as a bodyguard mechanic, just the "seer" scans unfortunately are no better than chance.
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01-18-2010, 07:52 PM | #1203 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Buffalo, NY
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Bleh
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01-18-2010, 08:09 PM | #1204 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Buffalo, NY
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Dead.....Line?
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01-18-2010, 08:19 PM | #1205 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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Yes deadline
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01-18-2010, 08:22 PM | #1206 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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J23 is the lynch choice. He was the Ballot-Box Stuffer and a wolf!
CrimsonFox is night killed. He was the slut and a villager |
01-18-2010, 08:27 PM | #1207 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
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YAY!
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01-18-2010, 08:33 PM | #1208 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Buffalo, NY
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2 down 2 to go? or do we think there is only 1 more wolf?
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01-18-2010, 08:46 PM | #1209 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2004
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I would be shocked if there is only 1 left.
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01-18-2010, 09:07 PM | #1210 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Looking back through the votes Dubb stands out to me as having done a really good job of skimming under the radar. He's voted Saldana everyday except the day he was iced and today when it was obvious J23 was going down. Plus the fact he got in early on J23 makes me wonder...
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01-18-2010, 09:17 PM | #1211 | |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
I know I am probably wrong and this is all predicated on DV being a villager but.... So there are only 3 possibilities, 2 of them have hoops being a wolf. DV is real seer,which means Hoops is a wolf DV is a fake seer, Hoops comes up wolf DV is fake seer, hoops comes up villager in 2 of those scenarios, of 66% Hoops is a wolf. |
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01-18-2010, 09:17 PM | #1212 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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Nicely done and Crimson Fox, nice first game with us. Well played.
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01-18-2010, 09:22 PM | #1213 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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Lathum, that is the same math I'm considering. Tomorrow should be interesting and I'll be around a lot more.
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01-18-2010, 10:40 PM | #1214 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
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I don't think that's right though. Because DV said that Hoops came up wolf in his scan, right? So we can take out this result from your list above: DV is fake seer, hoops comes up villager. So we really have 2 possibilities: DV is real seer,which means Hoops is a wolf DV is a fake seer, Hoops comes up wolf - means Hoops is a villager So I think we're at a 50/50 chance of him being a wolf. But even before DV mentioned that he scanned him, I was leery of Hoops, so I'm willing to take a 50/50 shot and will likely be voting for Hoops tomorrow. |
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01-18-2010, 10:44 PM | #1215 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Well, the odds would be 50/50 if we had an equal number of villagers and wolves. But we don't, or else the game would be over.
Like I said before, I understand the desire to take the easy out and pluck a wolf that way. But I would suggest that we have some new info available now that we've uncovered the second wolf - J23. Taking a look at his votes, in conjunction with Henry's, I'm guessing that we can start to make some sense of the first five or so days when we were striking out on the wolves. That has to be a better plan of attack than the 0% option that it seems like people want to take tomorrow. |
01-18-2010, 11:02 PM | #1216 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: SoCal
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either way, whatever u guys say im voting hoops. i thought he was one before i even scanned him, which is why i scanned him.
and great job today btw
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"Two there should be; no more, no less. One to embody power, the other to crave it." ―Darth Bane "Tell me what you regard as your greatest strength, so I will know how best to undermine you; tell me of your greatest fear, so I will know which I must force you to face; tell me what you cherish most, so I will know what to take from you; and tell me what you crave, so that I might deny you…" ―Darth Plagueis the Wise |
01-18-2010, 11:06 PM | #1217 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Day 1 - I'm in a 5-4 runoff with DaddyTorgo. Henry is on DT, J23 does not put in his double vote. I had posted that I was going to move my vote, but I was unable to do so as the PC I was working on was having virus issues. If J23 and I are wolves together then I would have expected some support from him. But there was none at all.
Day 3 - there is a tie vote between KWhit and PurdueBrad. J23 has his double vote on KWhit and I have my vote on PB with the negated vote behind me on CrimsonFox. If J23 and I were wolves together would we have wanted to create a tie? Not likely. I'll do a more detailed vote/post analysis tomorrow. But those are two instances this game where the idea of me as a wolf just doesn't make much sense. I would hope that there are more out there, but neither of our wolves are exactly prolific posters. I'm not expecting to find a ton of post content to help with this search. It will likely come down to voting records. |
01-18-2010, 11:07 PM | #1218 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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01-18-2010, 11:08 PM | #1219 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: SoCal
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Thanks, I appreciate that
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"Two there should be; no more, no less. One to embody power, the other to crave it." ―Darth Bane "Tell me what you regard as your greatest strength, so I will know how best to undermine you; tell me of your greatest fear, so I will know which I must force you to face; tell me what you cherish most, so I will know what to take from you; and tell me what you crave, so that I might deny you…" ―Darth Plagueis the Wise |
01-18-2010, 11:29 PM | #1220 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Darth, I'm not deliberately trying to pump you for information that you don't want to give but since you are bound and determined to lynch me I think I'm entitled to some back-and-forth ...
Have you scanned anyone as villager? Have you run witness on anyone yet? Or has every other day out of the six been some kind of bodyguard action? It would seem that you might have options to provide support for other villagers based on your actions, even if it is only to suggest that someone was inactive for an evening. I'm not trying to railroad you here; no one has challenged your claim of being the Schizo so I'm assuming you are. But I'm baffled by the way you are playing it, even if you weren't coming at me with bogus intel. |
01-18-2010, 11:31 PM | #1221 | ||
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2004
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Quote:
I'm not defending Hoops b/c for all I know he could be a wolf, I just have bigger suspects at this point, like Jackal/Schmidty who would fit right in with my 2 wolves left at this point logic, but even you have to realize that your third one here is out the window since he scanned as a wolf to DV. That means that best case is 50/50 that he is a wolf.
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01-19-2010, 12:50 AM | #1222 |
Head Coach
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01-19-2010, 12:51 AM | #1223 |
Head Coach
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01-19-2010, 12:52 AM | #1224 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Good game, Crimson. You came up very big in both of the wolves we've landed.
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01-19-2010, 06:54 AM | #1225 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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Quote:
This is a post by Henry on page 14. I put the known good players in bolded green and assumed good (your's truly since I know what I am) in a different color green. I then put the remaining unknowns (sorry KWhit, you still fall here for me although I'm inclined to think you're good) in orange. So, I guess I'm wondering is what are the odds that Henry doesn't mention any wolves what-so-ever in this post about players. Odds are, a wolf would try to throw a touch of info or read on a fellow wolf in a post like this. I could very well be wrong, but I think, for me, this is one place to start. In addition, KWhit, I get Lathum's math and I think he is correct. The way the seer/fake seer dynamic should work is: DV scans Hoops and A- DV is real seer at the time, scan says wolf, Hoops is wolf B- DV is fake seer at the time, scan says wolf, Hoops is villager C- DV is fake seer at the time, scan says wolf, Hoops is wolf I am inclined to say that this is a 2/3's or 66% shot. |
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01-19-2010, 06:54 AM | #1226 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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Lathum and Path should be in the darker green above, that's my bad.
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01-19-2010, 07:05 AM | #1227 |
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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I'll throw an early vote out there but this is subject to change, particularly if I get enough time to do some full game vote analysis of the other 7 uncleared players (beyond Hoops and I, and then Lathum and Path).
vote Hoopsguy |
01-19-2010, 07:50 AM | #1228 | ||
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
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Quote:
I don't know how you can say that. That's just incorrect. Quote:
So your C option is impossible based on Danny's post above. I'm fine with lynching Hoopsguy, but I don't want us to do it using inaccurate information. Personally, I think DV's scan is completely useless. It's entirely based upon whether he is being the seer or the fake seer. There is no third option. |
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01-19-2010, 07:52 AM | #1229 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
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Quote:
Why do you say Lathum and Path are Known good. We all assume they are, but it's never been proven, correct (it's possible I missed something). It would be a bold move by Path to res Lathum and reveal if he was a wolf, but it's not out of the realm of possibility, right? |
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01-19-2010, 07:53 AM | #1230 | |
Grizzled Veteran
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Location: DeKalb, IL
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Looking at EF's last post in which he put them in his undoubted trust list. I'll dig up the post. As for the math above, you are correct, I didn't see Danny's rules and assumed it was random. So that does take it down to 50/50. |
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01-19-2010, 07:56 AM | #1231 |
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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I don't have time to dig up the exact post but here is a copy-paste of me quoting it earlier. I also thought it was interesting that he listed Lathum and Path as trusted before he listed his own name:
Originally Posted by EagleFan Thinking out loud now.... We have: Most Trusted: Lathum, path12, EagleFan (if I can't trust myself, who can I trust) Close to Most Trusted (barring counter reveal): Autumn Leaning towards good: KWhit, CrimsonFox, PurdueBrad Reveals that mean nothing yet (could be either side): dubb93, RealDeal Uncertain: The rest |
01-19-2010, 08:36 AM | #1232 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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PB, you teach math, correct? I weep for our youth
Seriously, you are including an option in your math that cannot be realized. The "fake seer, hoops is a wolf" is not an option as I would have scanned villager in that case. Since he is saying I scanned wolf there are only two options. You can argue that those options are weighted equally - each has an equal 1/6 chance of coming to Darth Vilus. So that would be 50/50. Or you can argue that there although there is a 50/50 shot of DV getting seer or fake seer as a night action, the chances of scanning a wolf are not equal in a game with more villagers than wolves. Either way, the odds are certainly not above 50%. I'll argue this one as a math question until I'm blue in the face in the postgame thread if people want to return to the topic when I'm no longer considered an interested party. |
01-19-2010, 08:38 AM | #1233 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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As far as the EF scan, I haven't been able to figure out who he scanned because he has too many people trusted for the number of scans he was allowed. He was obviously mixing in some guesses along with his actual scans to try and throw off the wolves. I still think he scanned PB, but outside of that I'm not at all sure. I know KWhit has wanted to paint this in a way that suggests he has been scanned, but I'm less convinced of that than I was with PB.
I'll be working at a client today where I'm not sure what kind of Internet access I'll have. I'll be on as much as possible, but that number may be zero percent until I get home tonight. |
01-19-2010, 09:02 AM | #1234 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
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Quote:
As I pointed out before, the reason I suspect I was scanned is a combination of these things: EF voted for me on Day 2. He did it fairly early (putting only the 2nd vote on me). Presumably, he suspected me of being a wolf. Else, why would he vote for me? The very next day, he puts me on his trusted list. Now, why would he have all of a sudden had such a drastic change of heart about me. It makes sense to me that he scanned me. And I would be a logical choice for a scan from him since he felt I had a good chance of being a wolf (since he voted for me). True, he had me in the third category of trust, but I think if he would have put me any higher, it would have been an obvious sign that he was the seer - no one could have enough info on me at that point to think I was trusted. In fact, just the fact that PB and I were on the list at all may have been enough to make the wolves think he was the seer. Personally, I think PB and I were both scanned. |
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01-19-2010, 10:01 AM | #1235 |
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01-19-2010, 10:57 AM | #1236 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
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This thread is dead.
VOTE HOOPSGUY |
01-19-2010, 11:16 AM | #1237 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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vote the jackal
I would at least like to keep it close |
01-19-2010, 12:07 PM | #1238 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Seattle, WA
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I don't think so just because he's got Lathum and I on his top line with him. He only got two scans in before dying, right? On another topic, I do want to engage DV a little more on his role, especially before putting a vote down on hoops. Specifically, a recap of his night actions and reasonings for choosing the folks he has.
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01-19-2010, 12:25 PM | #1239 | |
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Maybe, but I think he had you guys on the top line because it was the group's consensus at that point in time that you two guys were the most trusted. It would have been weird and obvious that he was the seer if he had a trust list without you two guys at the top. Although it's entirely possible that he did scan you or Lathum. I just think that it's plausible that he did not scan either of you. |
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01-19-2010, 12:52 PM | #1240 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2008
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I would suggest that anyone voting for hoops consider his play apart from the "seer scan", including you DV. I might end up going that way today, but let's not base everything on that.
Hoops, who would you have near the top of your suspect list? A group of a few people is fine. |
01-19-2010, 12:55 PM | #1241 |
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I'm going to try to compile a vote breakdown in the next forty minutes, otherwise I'll do it after school, of who all the remaining people voted for.
As for the ongoing debate about scans, it is my *belief* that Path was likely EF's day 1 scan, which is how he knew he could clear Lathum. |
01-19-2010, 01:04 PM | #1242 |
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01-19-2010, 01:17 PM | #1243 | |
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Someone present a case against Hoopsguy that leaves out the DV scan, b/c I refuse to consider that as evidence since as far as I'm concerned no matter who he scans there is a 50/50 shot he shows them as a wolf depending on if he rolls the real seer or the false seer and then their true roll. If no one can present a good case without that then I will be voting for Schmidty or Jackal.
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01-19-2010, 01:22 PM | #1244 |
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These are days 1-4 (5 was the Saldana vote and 6 the J23, both of which went runaway I believe.
Path: Darth Vilus, J23, RendeR, henry Hoopsguy: Path, PurdueBrad, RendeR, henry
Darth Vilus: Crimson Fox, J23, Real Deal, Hoopsguy
RendeR: Hoopsguy, KWhit, no vote, Saldana
Jackal: PurdueBrad, No Vote, Real Deal, KWhit
KWhit: DaddyTorgo, PurdueBrad, no vote, henry
Lathum: DaddyTorgo, PurdueBrad, PurdueBrad, CrimsonFox
Schmidty: Dubb, KWhit, Autumn, no vote
Dubb: No Vote, Saldana, Saldana, no vote
Ntn: No Vote, EagleFan, henry, henry
PurdueBrad: Hoops, KWhit, RealDeal, henry |
01-19-2010, 01:24 PM | #1245 |
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The no votes above make analysis tough, especially when 6 of 11 have at least 1 no vote. I'll try to break this down some more as the afternoon goes on.
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01-19-2010, 01:30 PM | #1246 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
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My work schedule has me at a ton of different clients today, with heavy supervision. I'm not getting time to spend in the thread.
I would suggest that you guys carry on with the expectation that I'll have maybe 15-45 minutes this afternoon over the last two hours before the deadline. Will depend on traffic out of Chicago to my home and the mood of my kid when I get home. |
01-19-2010, 01:31 PM | #1247 | ||
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My D4 no vote and KWhit's D3 no vote are due to Schmidty icing us. Schmidty admitted to this after we placed the mobster role on him due to process of elimination.
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01-19-2010, 01:35 PM | #1248 |
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Voting record-wise, ntn and Path have the best records. As I continue to work with the assumption that Path is good, then he's playing a very solid game. ntn has done well for having been fairly quiet. It is easier for a wolf to compile a good voting record, which is something to remember.
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01-19-2010, 01:38 PM | #1249 | |
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Join Date: Nov 2004
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Again if Path is bad then Lathum has to be bad. If Lathum is bad then Path has to bad. Those are absolutes. It is a stretch to think both of them are bad at this point I would say but if they both continue to hang around it is something that may need to be considered going forward.
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01-19-2010, 01:43 PM | #1250 |
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Here is the same chart, with what I know to be true (and obviously we're all looking at the records through what are roles are):
Path: Darth Vilus, J23, RendeR, henry
Hoopsguy: Path, PurdueBrad, RendeR, henry
Darth Vilus: Crimson Fox, J23, Real Deal, Hoopsguy
RendeR: Hoopsguy, KWhit, no vote, Saldana
Jackal: PurdueBrad, No Vote, Real Deal, KWhit
KWhit: DaddyTorgo, PurdueBrad, no vote, henry
Lathum: DaddyTorgo, PurdueBrad, PurdueBrad, CrimsonFox
Schmidty: Dubb, KWhit, Autumn, no vote
Dubb: No Vote, Saldana, Saldana, no vote
Ntn: No Vote, EagleFan, henry, henry
PurdueBrad: Hoops, KWhit, RealDeal, henry Lathum's record is brutal which leads me to believe that he's extra good. |
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