Werewolf XXXI: House of Frankenstein (Game Over)

[Grammaticus]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

You do know my post was explaining to path why you should be trusted, right?

Yes, it was your explaination of why you had listed trust yesterday.

Today is a new day and the whole PM picture has changed.

Also in post 406 it talks about either laying a clue or a trap. I don't think the clue part worked out to favor us Villagers.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Grammaticus

Yes, it was your explaination of why you had listed trust yesterday.

Today is a new day and the whole PM picture has changed.

Also in post 406 it talks about either laying a clue or a trap. I don't think the clue part worked out to favor us Villagers.

Ok, your quite set in your ways...ill only ask one thing of you gramat, since you are soo convinced..tomorrow, when you learn im a villager, come back and read my posts from this whole day. Hopefully, knowing im a villager will open up some of the logic in them.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Now look in the mirrow when you keep accusing me, as everyone will ask that question about you when i die...make sure your ready to answer it tomorrow

I understand that. I just haven't seen a "Blade's a villager" scenerio that I can remotely accept.

On the slim chance you're a villager though, I don't think a wolf would be your most vocal accuser (especially when you'll have many votes against you).

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by molson

I understand that. I just haven't seen a "Blade's a villager" scenerio that I can remotely accept.

On the slim chance you're a villager though, I don't think a wolf would be your most vocal accuser (especially when you'll have many votes against you).

Since today is a foregone conclusion, humor me and asume im a villager for a second. In that totally outlandish scenario, who do you think is evil?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

dola, i am the only person in this game who says i trust gramat, and the only one he wants to kill...gotta love WW

[molson]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Since today is a foregone conclusion, humor me and asume im a villager for a second. In that totally outlandish scenario, who do you think is evil?

If you're a villager, and killed, I don't think there's any debate that the villagers have would be up against the wall. As I said, I think it might be time to force the issue with the Masons and engineer some ties. Their power increases with each round they survive, and I don't know how much longer we could wait.

As for specific other evil doers - I haven't thought about it much over the last day or so. Off the top of my head, I'd look closer at Anxeity, or anyone that's participated, but hasn't took much of a stand (SunDvls?)

[Blade6119]

Gramat, want to answer the same question. If in some alternate universe you thought i was a simple villager, who would you think is bad?

[Grammaticus]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Gramat, want to answer the same question. If in some alternate universe you thought i was a simple villager, who would you think is bad?

Honestly Blade after yesterday and consider we are probably looking at a 10-5 ratio of villagers to wolves+Dracula, I think you really are the only solid option right now. I cinsider it important to wack Raiman so he does not fook us up with his scans and general mayhem in voting. So that really leaves the ratio at 9-5. That is guessing 4 wolves.

After killing you, we can look at how votes have moved over the past few days and try to develope a circle of trust and go from there.

I honestly cannot think of any plausible reason to leave you alive. The simple route makes sense in this scenario.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Grammaticus

Honestly Blade after yesterday and consider we are probably looking at a 10-5 ratio of villagers to wolves+Dracula, I think you really are the only solid option right now. I cinsider it important to wack Raiman so he does not fook us up with his scans and general mayhem in voting. So that really leaves the ratio at 9-5. That is guessing 4 wolves.

After killing you, we can look at how votes have moved over the past few days and try to develope a circle of trust and go from there.

I honestly cannot think of any plausible reason to leave you alive. The simple route makes sense in this scenario.

Tommorrow, i will find it quite interesting to watch how you play after basically saying there are no other suspects...as tomorrow you will be done at least two more villagers, and will basically be back to day 1 it seems. Really, should be fun to watch

[path12]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

I suspect molson and tangle as well, but im having a hard time figuring out if its becuase of something they have said or the simple fact they are accusing me. Hence why i have, and will continue to, pursued a chief rum lynching.

Like I said, I'll have to wait to try and get specific posts to back this up, but my general reasons are:

molson -- he has been bound and determined not to just question the idea of a COT, but to actively campaign against it and push for it being a plot by the bad guys. If you're new to the game, I can see being confused about the value and such, but to just come out so strongly about it sets off alarms to me.

Tangle -- it struck me reading all the activity yesterday that Tangle is playing a different role than usual......it's kind of gut and nebulous, but I got the feeling that he was encouraging all the directions that people were flying in yesterday. It's in the best interest of wolves to spread confusion and doubt and he just seemed to be willing to give a nudge to anyone in any direction.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by path12

Like I said, I'll have to wait to try and get specific posts to back this up, but my general reasons are:

molson -- he has been bound and determined not to just question the idea of a COT, but to actively campaign against it and push for it being a plot by the bad guys. If you're new to the game, I can see being confused about the value and such, but to just come out so strongly about it sets off alarms to me.

Tangle -- it struck me reading all the activity yesterday that Tangle is playing a different role than usual......it's kind of gut and nebulous, but I got the feeling that he was encouraging all the directions that people were flying in yesterday. It's in the best interest of wolves to spread confusion and doubt and he just seemed to be willing to give a nudge to anyone in any direction.

By far, you are my best chance of survival right now. So, despite the fact i want chief dead, i will vote wherever i have the best shot of staying alive. That lies with you, so are you willing to vote either of these two today?

[path12]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

By far, you are my best chance of survival right now. So, despite the fact i want chief dead, i will vote wherever i have the best shot of staying alive. That lies with you, so are you willing to vote either of these two today?

I'd say it's likely that I'm voting one of those two today. Haven't decided which yet though.

I don't think it's going to really matter for you today though. I think it's a situation where until people know for sure about you one way or another that we won't be able to move forward. If I'm right about you being good, then that will make our margin of error smaller, but actually can really give us a nice push towards finding the evil.

[molson]

[quote=path12]

molson -- he has been bound and determined not to just question the idea of a COT, but to actively campaign against it and push for it being a plot by the bad guys. If you're new to the game, I can see being confused about the value and such, but to just come out so strongly about it sets off alarms to me.
[quote]

I see the potential value of a COT, but feel that potential is dampened somewhat when the leader is a wolf or Dr. R.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by path12

I'd say it's likely that I'm voting one of those two today. Haven't decided which yet though.

I don't think it's going to really matter for you today though. I think it's a situation where until people know for sure about you one way or another that we won't be able to move forward. If I'm right about you being good, then that will make our margin of error smaller, but actually can really give us a nice push towards finding the evil.

Trust me, ive known my fate since yesterday half an hour to the lynch...im been counting the minutes since then...but i still cant find it in myself to simply roll over a die, although it wont matter as i will be gone all day today

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by molson

I see the potential value of a COT, but feel that potential is dampened somewhat when the leader is a wolf or Dr. R.

Just wait molson, every comment you make is digging yourself a nice hole for tomorrow...my retribution shall come swiftly and sweetly

[SnDvls]

I don't like his finger pointing at me.
Blade I hope your right on this or I'm probally the next to go.

vote molson

[Blade6119]

UNVOTE CHIEF RUM

VOTE MOLSON

Path, hope your with me...its my only shot of staying alive another day, and with it my part in the villager ratio.

[Blade6119]

dola, though i reiterate id much rather vote for chief rum, and would love if everyone would lynch him instead

[bulletsponge]

ok i just got in for lunch so i can make a quick observation. last night Blade said he wouldnt be on much today, now i see hijm doing exactly what i expected from him, hes trying to get other people killed to save his wolf lovin butt. his enemies were killed yesterday, neither were wolves. now he wants us to kill anxiety and chief rum.

with all due respect, last night doesnt pass the bullshit test in my book. your a wolf or Dr reimann. if your a wolf then its great for us to kill you NOW! if your the Dr you have top go also, because you can do test to find out who the masons are, and then spill the beans about them for all the wolves to know. id say the odds of you being a bad guy is around 95% right now.

the fact that you have convinced some peeps to vote your way today only convinces me furthar that you are a da,mn good player, and if your a baddie we must kill you pronto.

ill be back in a few hours to post more, but for now

Vote Blade

[path12]

Originally Posted by bulletsponge

the fact that you have convinced some peeps to vote your way today only convinces me furthar that you are a da,mn good player, and if your a baddie we must kill you pronto.

It's not a matter of him swaying me today, I'm on record saying I lean towards him being good for a couple days now. And I would just point out that for as much doubt that has been cast on the COT, everyone in it who has died so far has been a villager.

Every time in the past that Blade has had the duke role he has made it public early on and waved it at anyone who disagreed with him. But I'm not going to try to dissuade you, like I said before I don't know that we can get a consensus to move forward with until this question is resolved.

I will, however,

VOTE MOLSON

again.

[Grammaticus]

Originally Posted by path12

Every time in the past that Blade has had the duke role he has made it public early on and waved it at anyone who disagreed with him. But I'm not going to try to dissuade you, like I said before I don't know that we can get a consensus to move forward with until this question is resolved.

I will, however,

VOTE MOLSON

again.

Dr. R is not simply the Duke role. He has other powers, of which testing lives on. That is a reason why Blade may not make it public, if he was the DR. He would want to be able to keep using that power.

[bulletsponge]

wow sure is quiet.....

[Barkeep49]

Yes it is. But hardly surprising given the circumstances of the day.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

dola, i am the only person in this game who says i trust gramat, and the only one he wants to kill...gotta love WW

I said that I don't beleive youa re a wolf, but you are suspicious of me

That's the way it goes.

Path - why tangle? What has there been that's triggered something for you?

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by molson

If you're a villager, and killed, I don't think there's any debate that the villagers have would be up against the wall. As I said, I think it might be time to force the issue with the Masons and engineer some ties. Their power increases with each round they survive, and I don't know how much longer we could wait.

As for specific other evil doers - I haven't thought about it much over the last day or so. Off the top of my head, I'd look closer at Anxeity, or anyone that's participated, but hasn't took much of a stand (SunDvls?)

If Blade turns up clean, going after me is a poor choice. If I were an antagonist, and I knew Blade was a dead man walking, I would NOT defend him. I'd be right in the middle of the pack. When so many are so convinced someone is bad, it is the easiest thign to go along with it, because then you can hide your vote as a wolf, which is something you want to do.

[tanglewood]

Interesting day so far. I guess Blade is doing as expected, trying to come up with scenarios to save his hide.

I will reiterate why I think Blade should be the one lynched today, it's simple 2+2. Blade was due to be lynched, then Blade was saved by the bad guys. Likelyhood that Blade = bad guy is so much higher than anyone else it's almost irresponsible to vote for another player at this point. Blade is asking us to take a chance on believeing him, but considerung we are 7 villagers down already, we can't afford to take a chance.

[Abe Sargent]

I'll roll with the molson vote of path, although he is not my top candiate, as an alternative to Blade.

Vote Molson


Remember, if this game has 3 WW and a vampire, we are looking at 11-4.

Tonight, if we lynch Blade, and he is the good Dr as most seem to think, that drops to 10-4. A vamp night kill and suddenly we are facing a 9-4 situation and quickly entering the endgame. On the other hand, even if Blade is the doctor, hitting a wolf/vamp topnight makes it a reliable 11-3 ratio - much more doable.

[Barkeep49]

If Blade turns up cleanI think my vote tomorrow, barring further revelations, is on molson. He's played a strange game and seems like as good of a hit as any.

If Blade does turn up clean there's going to be a lot of pressure on the good guys tomorrow, that's for sure.

[st.cronin]

Current vote totals

7 - Blade - Chief Rum, Barkeep, DaddyTorgo, tanglewood, molson, farrah, Grammaticus
4 - Molson - SnDvls, Blade, path12, Anxiety

not voted:

Swaggs
Bulletsponge
greyroofoo
dodgerchick

[Lorena]

Okay, all caught up a couple things really stand out:

- Shortly before deadline yesterday, Blade shows up out of nowhere... as if he and the wolves were IMing each other and as soon as he was a suspect, out he comes to prove his "innocence".

- Based on what a lot of you have said, Blade always wants people to give a reason for a vote and that gameshow scenario doesn't add up.

Vote Blade

[bulletsponge]

you missed my vote on the last page i believe Cronin, but ill say it again

Vote Blade

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

Okay, all caught up a couple things really stand out:

- Shortly before deadline yesterday, Blade shows up out of nowhere... as if he and the wolves were IMing each other and as soon as he was a suspect, out he comes to prove his "innocence".

- Based on what a lot of you have said, Blade always wants people to give a reason for a vote and that gameshow scenario doesn't add up.

Vote Blade

It's possible that Blade and his evil cohort were IM'ing each other but I do have a screen name for Blade and Blade was not signed on last night as far as I can tell.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Anxiety

Path - why tangle? What has there been that's triggered something for you?

It was a general feeling I was getting reading yesterdays drama. It seemed to me that Tangle was playing a very different game than normal and was almost encouraging any and all theories that came up (and with the new folks there were plenty of theories to go around. That's not a knock, by the way). It's an effective way of spreading confusion around, and that normally doesn't mark his style. He's always struck me as very focused and logical.

Go back if you get a chance and skim through those 5-6 pages, I'd be interested to see what you (or anyone else) think or if it was just my imagination.

[Grammaticus]

Originally Posted by Anxiety

I'll roll with the molson vote of path, although he is not my top candiate, as an alternative to Blade.

Vote Molson


Remember, if this game has 3 WW and a vampire, we are looking at 11-4.

Tonight, if we lynch Blade, and he is the good Dr as most seem to think, that drops to 10-4. A vamp night kill and suddenly we are facing a 9-4 situation and quickly entering the endgame. On the other hand, even if Blade is the doctor, hitting a wolf/vamp topnight makes it a reliable 11-3 ratio - much more doable.

If it is not your top candidate, why put it on Molson, moving the vote bit by bit closer for movement to assist Blade? If all the outstanding votes drop on Molson, it is a tie. All the non-Blade votes sitting on Molson is not indicitive that Blade is doomed.

[Grammaticus]

dola,

With Bulletsponge's note above it would not be a tie, but still within one.

[Swaggs]

Not certain on this one, but too much evidence points towards blade after last night.

Vote Blade6119

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Not certain on this one, but too much evidence points towards blade after last night.

Vote Blade6119

I don't think any of us are certain. Just seems like the best bet.

[path12]

OK. I first learned this from Barkeep and find it useful at times when I'm trying to figure out if someone is bad or not. Here is a listing of all of Tanglewood's posts from the time the game started:

#152 -- if reading rules correctly, wolves can't communicate so voting records not important.
#155 -- never mind after clarification by cronin.
#187 -- says vote for Chief because he didn't vote is weak. Votes Swaggs.
#225 -- unvotes Swaggs, votes Noddadropp for not being around.
#241 -- says ndp's last post was before roles sent out, could have been a wolf and not known it.
#255 -- reposts #241 in response to Gram.
#393 --

Well, I think that Lathum's leap onto Blade 'because he's still alive' is pretty weak really. As others have pointed out there are plenty of other vets still left, although I grant you there's perhaps no-one with his notoriety.

Gramm I agree with some others just seemed a bit too helpful and at the forefront. Sometimes as a wolf the best place to hide is out in the open. I also agree with Blade that Bullet and Chubby's exchange of votes on day one seems a bit odd, but not exactly incriminating. I know on day one a few times I have taken the simplistic 'well I know I am not a wolf, so if you're voting for me you might be a wolf' logic, which whilst not really all that helpful generaly, is pretty much all you have on day one.

Despite Grammaticus' pushyness, I do think his idea of setting up ties to have the masons decide them is intruiging. Without a seer we really don't have much hard information at all in this game, so utilising what little we have most directly could be a good strategy. What are the possible downsides to deliberatly setting up ties? I guess that the wolves could hijack it and try to force it one way or the other, but if we get one ser up I think it would be helpful.

#396 -- meaningless post.
#455 -- no read, gut vote for SnDvls because he's experienced and UTR.
#457 -- asks for vote count.
#468 --

Once again, I would like to state that I am intruiged by the proposition of creating a tie. What would the possible bad effects of that be? Surely it puts us in the best position to use all the knowledge we have?

#473 -- asks Alan why he doesn't want a tie. Asks if he knows what will happen.
#499 --

St. Cronin, if a player is lynched will you tell us if they were a mason also?

#540 -- response to Torgo theory about Alan death clearing Gram. Says at the time Gram was leading the vote so wanted the tie to have a chance to stay alive. (actually, Chubby was in lead. Alan's late vote was for Gram and CAUSED the tie).
#543 -- corrects last post.
#586 -- responds to PM info, says it doesn't matter at this point, those have little credibility after first few days.
#596 -- tells blade he's being too clever.
#599 -- dola to 596.
#601 -- meaningless.
#609 -- suspects PM's to both sides were near identical with only one word changing.
#613 -- retracts after Blade points out that wolves and masons would need to know who each other are.
#633 -- to molson, thinks we do have COT w/schmidty, blade & path, would like to include himself but not sure the others would.
#637 -- meaningless.
#673 -- meaningless.
#675 -- asks DC if her PM was lengthy.
#884 -- just caught up, disappointed that Lathum & Fouts are up, doesn't suspect either. If someone can make a case he'll listen.
#900 -- Not sure Blade is wolf, but thinks Lathum/Fouts are clean. Votes Blade. (second on blade after Lathum).
#911 -- asks for vote count.
#921 -- agrees w/Lathum votes still out there are worrying. Notes many are sliding by w/o voting.
#925 -- questions Blade's 'gameshow-esque' voting process.
#975 -- response to Anxiety dissing vote -- says that the way Blade voted for Fouts flagged it for him.
#996 -- meaningless.
#1015 --

If I were Dr. Reimman, Blade would be one of the first player's I'd test, so I think it's likely, whether you are wolf or villager, that Reimann knows what you are.

Of course, it could be a newbie player who is the Reimann so could possibly a) Not have known who the vets were and tested random people (i.e. not Blade) and b) Have tested Lathum, found he was a villager and panicked as the vote moved away from him deciding to move it back.

Of course, Blade could be Reimann himself. His whole 'I am a villager, I will not fight against my accusers, what's the point?' defence in the last 15 ins or so before the lynch could suggest someone who knew he wasn't going to be lynched tonight.

#1039 -- counter to Blade protesting he wouldn't kill all three on his list if bad.
#1047 -- asks those hypothesizing a setup who they should lynch today instead? Thinks Blade is a wolf saved by Dr R w/o his knowledge.
#1053 -- counter to Torgo. Why not Blade is wolf/Dr R, makes obvious play then defends self saying why would I do that?
#1058 -- scenario is fragging his brain.
#1059 -- asks Blade why he won't say who he suspects.
#1119 -- Votes Blade, simplest and best option.
#1226 -- reiterates why he thinks Blade should be lynched. Says we can't afford to take a chance.

So it seems I was mistaken a bit when I said that Tangle was encouraging all the stuff flying around yesterday afternoon, he only had a few posts in there. Frankly, some of the earlier stuff around the Chubby/Gram tie pings me much more, but the last day or so doesn't so much. Of course, it could be that if Lathum/Fouts/Blade are all good, there isn't any reason not to be as helpful as possible........

[Greyroofoo]

vote blade

[bulletsponge]

i think after we finish of Dr Blades we put some pressure on some of the newer players. one or 2 are bound to be wolves. and noobies are more likely to make a mistake when flustered. plus it will encourage them to post

[st.cronin]

Current vote totals

11 - Blade - Chief Rum, Barkeep, DaddyTorgo, tanglewood, molson, farrah, Grammaticus, Dodgerchick, Bulletsponge, Swaggs, greyroofoo
4 - Molson - SnDvls, Blade, path12, Anxiety

[SnDvls]

wow everyone voted today...must be a WW first

[bulletsponge]

farrah your reading now. give us some womanly insight as to who are on your suspect list?

[Barkeep49]

So building off of path's posts, I think it is helpful to do this before we know results:

What does it tell us if Blade comes up clean?
What does it tell us if Blade comes up guilty?

[Abe Sargent]

Still 10 peops around

[path12]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

So building off of path's posts, I think it is helpful to do this before we know results:

What does it tell us if Blade comes up clean?
What does it tell us if Blade comes up guilty?

Well, I'm leaving the office now and won't be home before lynch -- but it's a very interesting question either way. If he's guilty I can't be too shocked just based on the amount of evidence, but it would obviously put a hole in my theories.

We should at least get some good clues from this lynch.

[molson]

It seems there's not much too say until we get the results - though I have some theories on the day's activities once we know.

My biggest concern going forward (as long as I'm alive) is that we're completely overlooking some guilty people. Most surviving players have checked in, been relatively active, but haven't made waves, and have gone under the radar. It's hard to differentiate them.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

So building off of path's posts, I think it is helpful to do this before we know results:

What does it tell us if Blade comes up clean?
What does it tell us if Blade comes up guilty?

if he's clean where do we go? is it another set up?

if he's guilty, who of those that voted for him knew it, because you would have to believe some of them do?

these are my first questions.

[Barkeep49]

Let's say he's clean. How many bad guys voted for him? Let's assume 3 wolves in that scenario. I would say 1 or 2.

Now let's say he's guilty. I would say all 3 wolves voted for him.

[Blade6119]

I wasnt lying, fyi...have fun tomorrow villagers, you guys got led astray yet again today and killed another simple villager