WW: Scooby Doo and the Horrible Halloween Party of Doom! Game over - Monsters win!! - Page 25

Lathum · 10-28-2009, 06:35 PM

So I am eating my cheese and triscuts and trying to piece this together. Going to be talking out loud here.

So we have a /bg claim and a counter. Based on the fact the cultist has no clue who the wolves are and vice-versa it is logical that either MartinD or GE is the cultist.

Now, if we lynch one tonight we obviously learn which one is which. The problem is no only is there a 50% chance we kill the BG, but the wolves then go for the other one tonight. Which means they either get the convert, who we then kill tomorrow, or they get the BG, or the BG gets a block.

Now, if we wait until tomorrow there are a few scenerios.

If there is no night kill we lynch one of them tomorrow and we get a 50% chance of getting a wolf. Now even if there was a succesfull block and we lynch the BG, he was dead that night anyway because they would come after him, knowing he cant block them.

Now what this also means is we know who the cultist is and can keep him alive as a villager until there is a night with no kill, in which case we lynch him the next day for obvious reasons.

Here is the bottom line, the cultist wants us to go the next 2 days not lynching a current wolf. If we follow GE today that is what happens, which is bad for us.

Now the only thing we have to make sure of is whoever the cultist is doesn't make it to the final 3, so they will have to get dealt with at some point.

Lathum · 10-28-2009, 06:35 PM

anyone have a vote count?

ntndeacon · 10-28-2009, 06:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

can Schmidty confirm this, it is not how I read the rules.

It has probably been clarified by now, but it certainly can be read either way. my first thought was that at conversion identity was known, but they may know now I guess.

ntndeacon · 10-28-2009, 06:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

A side benefit to this is that the wolves may not want to lynch the real BG right away to keep us guessing and to use the cultist for an extra turn or two. That benefits us as we get additional nights of possible BG blocks. Every extra day that the BG is alive is good for us.

A side detriment to this let's assume that they do hit either Martin or GE tonight. Assuming that the BG does protect themself how could we tell anything about either one except that one of them was targeted?

ntndeacon · 10-28-2009, 06:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

I just got home and I'm having a guest for dinner. somebody tell me who to vote for if I need to change my vote.

are they being served with fava beans and a nice chianti?

Lathum · 10-28-2009, 06:59 PM

Either RA or NTN is dying tonight, a vote any other way is wasted.

KWhit · 10-28-2009, 07:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

Either RA or NTN is dying tonight, a vote any other way is wasted.

Now that's what I wanted to hear.

I'm leaving my vote on RA. I may be back before deadline, but I may not.

ntndeacon · 10-28-2009, 07:12 PM

well Lathum,you have made it so hard for me to choose then. If those are my options, then my choice is clear. I do think we could be well served to look at the Martin/GE dichotomy. (sorry, I like that word and don't get to use it much.

)
VOTE RA

ntndeacon · 10-28-2009, 07:13 PM

And when I leave here in a few minutes I won't be back either until after the deadline.

GoldenEagle · 10-28-2009, 07:16 PM

I know I am pushing for MartinD to be voted off, but I really think that is the direction we need to go.

VOTE MARTIND

EagleFan · 10-28-2009, 07:17 PM

A couple of observations.

MartinD's claim of who he guarded day 1 and day 2 at least seems plausible. He was not around for the reveal so it would have made sense for him to have guarded himself day 1 and PB day 2 (which would have led to PB being vulnerable on day 3).

If GoldenEagle is truly Freddy then he knows for certain that MartinD is either cultist or wolf (most likely cultist). Why would he have agreed so quickly to take his vote off someone that he would know 100 percent was lying?

Lathum · 10-28-2009, 07:19 PM

GE, can you please refute my logic from above as to why we shouldn't vote either you or MartinD today?

EagleFan · 10-28-2009, 07:20 PM

Also: Taking KWhit and MartinD out of the mix it leaves us with JAG, ntn and RA who had votes on either PB or Telle on day one and are not accounted for.

I would say that we have very good odds going with that group.

GoldenEagle · 10-28-2009, 07:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan

If GoldenEagle is truly Freddy then he knows for certain that MartinD is either cultist or wolf (most likely cultist). Why would he have agreed so quickly to take his vote off someone that he would know 100 percent was lying?

Good point, which is why I ultimately decided to put my vote back on him. If we lynch him, then we would nail the cultist.

EagleFan · 10-28-2009, 07:22 PM

double dola: I see while I was typing that other post GE went back to MartinD.

GoldenEagle · 10-28-2009, 07:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

GE, can you please refute my logic from above as to why we shouldn't vote either you or MartinD today?

What if the wolves decide not to kill/convert one of us and instead kill someone like you who is 100% cleared? Then we are back at square one with one less villager.

Lathum · 10-28-2009, 07:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

What if the wolves decide not to kill/convert one of us and instead kill someone like you who is 100% cleared? Then we are back at square one with one less villager.

If we kill Martin or you we are still at one less villager.

JAG · 10-28-2009, 07:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

So I am eating my cheese and triscuts and trying to piece this together. Going to be talking out loud here.

So we have a /bg claim and a counter. Based on the fact the cultist has no clue who the wolves are and vice-versa it is logical that either MartinD or GE is the cultist.

Now, if we lynch one tonight we obviously learn which one is which. The problem is no only is there a 50% chance we kill the BG, but the wolves then go for the other one tonight. Which means they either get the convert, who we then kill tomorrow, or they get the BG, or the BG gets a block.

Now, if we wait until tomorrow there are a few scenerios.

If there is no night kill we lynch one of them tomorrow and we get a 50% chance of getting a wolf. Now even if there was a succesfull block and we lynch the BG, he was dead that night anyway because they would come after him, knowing he cant block them.

Now what this also means is we know who the cultist is and can keep him alive as a villager until there is a night with no kill, in which case we lynch him the next day for obvious reasons.

Here is the bottom line, the cultist wants us to go the next 2 days not lynching a current wolf. If we follow GE today that is what happens, which is bad for us.

That's some nice thinking Lathum. The one downside is if they get the conversion tonight (instead of there being a BG block) AND we choose incorrectly tomorrow, we may end up lynching our BG who had a chance to protect themselves instead of forcing the wolves to do so, giving them a free kill to take down a member of our CoT. We would be guaranteed to get a wolf or identify Igor after the lynch though. I'm not 100% sure that's optimal strategy because we have some pretty good wolf candidates at the moment. Another consideration is if we keep both of them alive and lynch the brutal wolf, it makes them think about using that extra kill on the BG. Do they risk killing their potential convert or exposing them?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

Now the only thing we have to make sure of is whoever the cultist is doesn't make it to the final 3, so they will have to get dealt with at some point.

Not 100% sure about this. From what I read in the rules, Igor is a regular party goer unless he is kidnapped. If he makes it to the final 3 without being kidnapped, I believe he needs to vote with the village to win. Of course if it ends up being 4 people including Igor with the wolves getting an NK, they can win it with the conversion (making it 2-2 instead of 2-1).

Lathum · 10-28-2009, 07:44 PM

Vote Count

NTN 5: RA (1048) CR (1050) Jackal (1064) Jag (1075) CW ( 1088)

RA: 4 Lathum (1119) Kwhit (1122) MartinD (1138) NTNDeacon ( 1208)

Lathum 1: EF (1135)

MartinD 1: GE ( 1210)

Lathum · 10-28-2009, 07:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG

Not 100% sure about this. From what I read in the rules, Igor is a regular party goer unless he is kidnapped. If he makes it to the final 3 without being kidnapped, I believe he needs to vote with the village to win. Of course if it ends up being 4 people including Igor with the wolves getting an NK, they can win it with the conversion (making it 2-2 instead of 2-1).

Rightm but if it is down to a wolf, a cultist and a villager the villager will be in a position to actually be trying to sell themselves as a wolf.

Schmidty · 10-28-2009, 07:51 PM

Just got back from getting my daughter from karate, and then picking up dinner. I might be running late.

JAG · 10-28-2009, 07:51 PM

Not sure I understand, but hopefully this will be irrelevant anyway.

JAG · 10-28-2009, 07:52 PM

Do you have a conditional order in in case there's a tie? I don't like that the vote is close.

Lathum · 10-28-2009, 07:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG

Do you have a conditional order in in case there's a tie? I don't like that the vote is close.

yes I do,

there will be no tie

JAG · 10-28-2009, 07:56 PM

Bueno.

KWhit · 10-28-2009, 07:57 PM

UNVOTE RA
VOTE NTNDEACON

KWhit · 10-28-2009, 07:58 PM

I'd rather Lathum not have to use his power tonight unless he wants to. In other words, I don't want a tie.

Schmidty · 10-28-2009, 08:00 PM

Deadline

Lathum · 10-28-2009, 08:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

I'd rather Lathum not have to use his power tonight unless he wants to. In other words, I don't want a tie.

I have a feeling I may be a goner tonight.

GoldenEagle · 10-28-2009, 08:01 PM

Ok. I lied.

I did not lie about being Freddy, but I did lie about who I protected. Here is what I did:

Night 1 - Hoops
Night 2 - PB
Night 3 - Lathum
Night 4 - Lathum

I just figured the wolves would counter by keeping both MartinD and I alive. I don't know if I fooled them into killing Lathum, but we will see.

GoldenEagle · 10-28-2009, 08:02 PM

Edit: Attempting to kill Lathum

Lathum · 10-28-2009, 08:04 PM

will be pretty funny if I end up dead.

KWhit · 10-28-2009, 08:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

I have a feeling I may be a goner tonight.

Dunno. I figure it's either you or one of our two BGs.

JAG · 10-28-2009, 08:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

will be pretty funny if I end up dead.

Even if GE is telling the truth now, it's a possibility if we nailed the brutal.

EagleFan · 10-28-2009, 08:06 PM

Why protect hoops night one instead of either yourself or PB?

EagleFan · 10-28-2009, 08:08 PM

If JAG just happens to be right about ntn brutaling Lathum I know where my vote is going tomorrow.

Lathum · 10-28-2009, 08:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG

Even if GE is telling the truth now, it's a possibility if we nailed the brutal.

true, I should have duked it to RA in hindsite. If it is wolf vs wolf they will want the brutal to go down. Remember that if NTN is the brutal.

Lathum · 10-28-2009, 08:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan

If JAG just happens to be right about ntn brutaling Lathum I know where my vote is going tomorrow.

I think RA should be tomorrows vote regardless.

EagleFan · 10-28-2009, 08:09 PM

Of course GE could be setting up an excuse for no night kill if he is the cultist. Now saying that he protected Lathum tonight (instead of waiting until after the result) so that he can act like he protected Latum from an attack if there is no night kill.

Lathum · 10-28-2009, 08:10 PM

dying today wouldn't be the worst thing, I have a mid term tomorrow and really don't need this distraction

lerriuqs · 10-28-2009, 08:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

Vote Ntn...

Same as yesterday, his voting doesn't reflect very well at this point. I'm between him and RA as the only two left who voted Telle on Day 1.

Bah...And then I got called away from the office and just get back now...Sorry.

Lathum · 10-28-2009, 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Of course GE could be setting up an excuse for no night kill if he is the cultist. Now saying that he protected Lathum tonight (instead of waiting until after the result) so that he can act like he protected Latum from an attack if there is no night kill.

I think if NTN is the brutal who they target will be telling. If they don't target me and there is no night kill I will put more stock in what NTN is claiming

EagleFan · 10-28-2009, 08:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

dying today wouldn't be the worst thing, I have a mid term tomorrow and really don't need this distraction

Good luck with the mid term.

Lathum · 10-28-2009, 08:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

I think if NTN is the brutal who they target will be telling. If they don't target me and there is no night kill I will put more stock in what NTN is claiming

should say GE, not NTN

JAG · 10-28-2009, 08:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

I think RA should be tomorrows vote regardless.

He's almost assuredly my vote tomorrow.

Lathum · 10-28-2009, 08:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Good luck with the mid term.

thanks!

GoldenEagle · 10-28-2009, 08:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Why protect hoops night one instead of either yourself or PB?

I am never going to be killed on night one, because I have a knack for creating controversy. I was not around when PB revealed and I figured that would target a good player.

I was protecting Chief Rum last night until Lathum revealed.

Schmidty · 10-28-2009, 08:17 PM

What a terrible series of events. Scooby is absolutely devestated. "Rhy, oh rhy?!?!?!? Raggy!!!!". You all look about in frustration.

Someone finally says, "We must carry on, if we lose our heads, we may.......lose our heads. If we keep it together, we might find our friends again."

You all seem to agree that the speaker is correct. It's time to rally the troops.

Thinking through all of the clues you have, the race comes down to two people: Torquemada and Dyno-Mutt.

Finally, every crosses their fingers, and chooses to condemn Torquemada. Torquemada is furious, but unfortunately, he is unable to Torquemada anything this time.

The police handcuff Torquemada, and then roughly remove his mask. Under the mask, you see a ugly, rotten face, with deep set eyes that hold no life. He glowers at you, and says, "You won't defeat us!! You will fail yet, you blasted kids!!!"

In a joyous moment, you realize you have discovered another Monster!!

ntndeacon was the Zombie!!!

Schmidty · 10-28-2009, 08:18 PM

Processing all of the "night" portion actions right now.

Lathum · 10-28-2009, 08:19 PM

high five!

10-28-2009, 07:16 PM	#1210
GoldenEagle Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Little Rock, AR	I know I am pushing for MartinD to be voted off, but I really think that is the direction we need to go. VOTE MARTIND __________________ Xbox 360 Gamer Tag: GoldenEagle014

10-28-2009, 07:51 PM	#1221
Schmidty Coordinator Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Early, TX	Just got back from getting my daughter from karate, and then picking up dinner. I might be running late. __________________ Just beat the devil out of it!!! - Bob Ross

10-28-2009, 08:00 PM	#1228
Schmidty Coordinator Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Early, TX	Deadline __________________ Just beat the devil out of it!!! - Bob Ross

10-28-2009, 08:01 PM	#1230
GoldenEagle Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Little Rock, AR	Ok. I lied. I did not lie about being Freddy, but I did lie about who I protected. Here is what I did: Night 1 - Hoops Night 2 - PB Night 3 - Lathum Night 4 - Lathum I just figured the wolves would counter by keeping both MartinD and I alive. I don't know if I fooled them into killing Lathum, but we will see. __________________ Xbox 360 Gamer Tag: GoldenEagle014

10-28-2009, 08:02 PM	#1231
GoldenEagle Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Little Rock, AR	Edit: Attempting to kill Lathum __________________ Xbox 360 Gamer Tag: GoldenEagle014

10-28-2009, 06:35 PM	#1201
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	So I am eating my cheese and triscuts and trying to piece this together. Going to be talking out loud here. So we have a /bg claim and a counter. Based on the fact the cultist has no clue who the wolves are and vice-versa it is logical that either MartinD or GE is the cultist. Now, if we lynch one tonight we obviously learn which one is which. The problem is no only is there a 50% chance we kill the BG, but the wolves then go for the other one tonight. Which means they either get the convert, who we then kill tomorrow, or they get the BG, or the BG gets a block. Now, if we wait until tomorrow there are a few scenerios. If there is no night kill we lynch one of them tomorrow and we get a 50% chance of getting a wolf. Now even if there was a succesfull block and we lynch the BG, he was dead that night anyway because they would come after him, knowing he cant block them. Now what this also means is we know who the cultist is and can keep him alive as a villager until there is a night with no kill, in which case we lynch him the next day for obvious reasons. Here is the bottom line, the cultist wants us to go the next 2 days not lynching a current wolf. If we follow GE today that is what happens, which is bad for us. Now the only thing we have to make sure of is whoever the cultist is doesn't make it to the final 3, so they will have to get dealt with at some point.

10-28-2009, 06:35 PM	#1202
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	anyone have a vote count?

10-28-2009, 06:59 PM	#1206
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	Either RA or NTN is dying tonight, a vote any other way is wasted.

10-28-2009, 07:12 PM	#1208
ntndeacon Pro Starter Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Alabama	well Lathum,you have made it so hard for me to choose then. If those are my options, then my choice is clear. I do think we could be well served to look at the Martin/GE dichotomy. (sorry, I like that word and don't get to use it much. ) VOTE RA

10-28-2009, 07:13 PM	#1209
ntndeacon Pro Starter Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Alabama	And when I leave here in a few minutes I won't be back either until after the deadline.

10-28-2009, 07:17 PM	#1211
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	A couple of observations. MartinD's claim of who he guarded day 1 and day 2 at least seems plausible. He was not around for the reveal so it would have made sense for him to have guarded himself day 1 and PB day 2 (which would have led to PB being vulnerable on day 3). If GoldenEagle is truly Freddy then he knows for certain that MartinD is either cultist or wolf (most likely cultist). Why would he have agreed so quickly to take his vote off someone that he would know 100 percent was lying?

10-28-2009, 07:19 PM	#1212
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	GE, can you please refute my logic from above as to why we shouldn't vote either you or MartinD today?

10-28-2009, 07:20 PM	#1213
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	Also: Taking KWhit and MartinD out of the mix it leaves us with JAG, ntn and RA who had votes on either PB or Telle on day one and are not accounted for. I would say that we have very good odds going with that group.

10-28-2009, 07:22 PM	#1215
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	double dola: I see while I was typing that other post GE went back to MartinD.

10-28-2009, 07:44 PM	#1219
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	Vote Count NTN 5: RA (1048) CR (1050) Jackal (1064) Jag (1075) CW ( 1088) RA: 4 Lathum (1119) Kwhit (1122) MartinD (1138) NTNDeacon ( 1208) Lathum 1: EF (1135) MartinD 1: GE ( 1210)

10-28-2009, 07:51 PM	#1222
JAG Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: St. Paul, MN	Not sure I understand, but hopefully this will be irrelevant anyway.

10-28-2009, 07:52 PM	#1223
JAG Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: St. Paul, MN	Do you have a conditional order in in case there's a tie? I don't like that the vote is close.

10-28-2009, 07:56 PM	#1225
JAG Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: St. Paul, MN	Bueno.

10-28-2009, 07:57 PM	#1226
KWhit Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Conyers GA	UNVOTE RA VOTE NTNDEACON

10-28-2009, 07:58 PM	#1227
KWhit Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Conyers GA	I'd rather Lathum not have to use his power tonight unless he wants to. In other words, I don't want a tie.

10-28-2009, 08:04 PM	#1232
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	will be pretty funny if I end up dead.

10-28-2009, 08:06 PM	#1235
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	Why protect hoops night one instead of either yourself or PB?

10-28-2009, 08:08 PM	#1236
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	If JAG just happens to be right about ntn brutaling Lathum I know where my vote is going tomorrow.

10-28-2009, 08:09 PM	#1239
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	Of course GE could be setting up an excuse for no night kill if he is the cultist. Now saying that he protected Lathum tonight (instead of waiting until after the result) so that he can act like he protected Latum from an attack if there is no night kill.

10-28-2009, 08:10 PM	#1240
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	dying today wouldn't be the worst thing, I have a mid term tomorrow and really don't need this distraction

10-28-2009, 08:17 PM	#1248
Schmidty Coordinator Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Early, TX	What a terrible series of events. Scooby is absolutely devestated. "Rhy, oh rhy?!?!?!? Raggy!!!!". You all look about in frustration. Someone finally says, "We must carry on, if we lose our heads, we may.......lose our heads. If we keep it together, we might find our friends again." You all seem to agree that the speaker is correct. It's time to rally the troops. Thinking through all of the clues you have, the race comes down to two people: Torquemada and Dyno-Mutt. Finally, every crosses their fingers, and chooses to condemn Torquemada. Torquemada is furious, but unfortunately, he is unable to Torquemada anything this time. The police handcuff Torquemada, and then roughly remove his mask. Under the mask, you see a ugly, rotten face, with deep set eyes that hold no life. He glowers at you, and says, "You won't defeat us!! You will fail yet, you blasted kids!!!" In a joyous moment, you realize you have discovered another Monster!! ntndeacon was the Zombie!!! __________________ Just beat the devil out of it!!! - Bob Ross

10-28-2009, 08:18 PM	#1249
Schmidty Coordinator Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Early, TX	Processing all of the "night" portion actions right now. __________________ Just beat the devil out of it!!! - Bob Ross

10-28-2009, 08:19 PM	#1250
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	high five!

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