Official 2023 College Football Thread

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Sagarin also shows that Michigan and Florida State had a nearly identical strength if schedule this year.

2-0 vs (his) Top 10 for one, 1-0 in the season opener for the other

When a 3-loss LSU is your best opponent, that's a tough sell for having an SoS.

[dubb93]

The reality is we are talking about the difference between 1 ranked team. Alabama beat one more ranked team this year than FSU did. The unranked games dont and shouldn’t matter. What is the difference between playing Michigan State and Ivy Tech if you are one of the top teams in the county? Basically zero. You are beating both soundly.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by dubb93

What is the difference between playing Michigan State and Ivy Tech if you are one of the top teams in the county? Basically zero. You are beating both soundly.

Except when you don't. As Bama nearly found out against Auburn. (granted, rivalry games are a different animal)

But what it adds up to is Bama playing (Sagarin's) #2 schedule and FSU playing his #62 schedule.

[RainMaker]

The ACC was one of the main conferences that prevented the 12 team playoff so they really only have themselves to blame. Enjoy the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl or whatever you chose over playing for a national title.

[dubb93]

Isn’t LSU Alabama’s 2nd best win? Their best win before yesterday? Bama’s non conference schedule besides Texas was shameful.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Except when you don't. As Bama nearly found out against Auburn. (granted, rivalry games are a different animal)

But what it adds up to is Bama playing (Sagarin's) #2 schedule and FSU playing his #62 schedule.

Sagarin has Michigan at 56 so I don't think SOS mattered in this decision.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Sagarin has Michigan at 56 so I don't think SOS mattered in this decision.

Go back and read the criteria I posted earlier.

It mattered in the 4/5/6 slots, i.e. when comparing teams of the same level (2nd group of three teams in this case).

And that's exactly when the published criteria call for it to carry it's weight.

edit to add: along with other factors naturally.

[dubb93]

Why did that criteria not matter until now though? FSU had a better win than Texas yesterday. They started ranked SIGNIFICANTLY higher. Why just now does that criteria matter?

[Ksyrup]

Because it's a TV show.

The entire criteria is preposterous if the undefeated P5s are not grouped together. Period. This is essentially a decision made as if CFB had already moved to 2 16-20 team CFP divisions. I get it, the ACC sucks. But it's still a P5 and winning the conference as an undefeated team matters more than SOS or comparing resumes against teams that lost a game. You will never make a good argument against zero losses >>>>>> 1 loss.

[kingfc22]

Because it’s all about the dollar bills

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Because it's a TV show.

The entire criteria is preposterous if the undefeated P5s are not grouped together. Period. This is essentially a decision made as if CFB had already moved to 2 16-20 team CFP divisions. I get it, the ACC sucks. But it's still a P5 and winning the conference as an undefeated team matters more than SOS or comparing resumes against teams that lost a game. You will never make a good argument against zero losses >>>>>> 1 loss.

Originally Posted by kingfc22

Because it’s all about the dollar bills

It always has been, and they really don't deny it. They base these decisions on viewership and money to the involved Bowls. They also love the engagement a controversy gives them. While people are super upset, they are laughing their way to the bank with all the engagement they get to cash in on.

System working as intended.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I get it, the ACC sucks. But it's still a P5 and winning the conference as an undefeated team matters more than SOS or comparing resumes against teams that lost a game.

You're apparently operating under the delusion that "P5" is still a realistic thing.
That's not reality right now.

FSU needed Clemson, Miami, or even Florida (i.e. their regular OOC opponent) to be relevant this year. None of them were.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Why did that criteria not matter until now though? FSU had a better win than Texas yesterday. They started ranked SIGNIFICANTLY higher. Why just now does that criteria matter?

And the sportswriters (AP poll) who weren't in the committee room AND the committee itself saw it the exact same way.

Massey has Texas higher (+3), Sagarin has Texas higher (+7), Howell has Texas higher (+1), Colley has Texas higher (+2). Only Wolfe (FSU +2) has it differently, and it has Liberty vs a mediocre HS schedule ranked 11th.

That's the committee, sportswriters, and all but one major computer poll from the BCS era (I don't think Anderson & Hester still exists?) that all agree.

edit to correct: Billingsley was an original BCS, not Howell. Billingsley has FSU +4 over Texas. Fair is fair, so I'm correcting myself without erasing the original.

[cartman]

So happy the Horns made it in, but feel horrible for FSU. I would have had FSU at 3 and Texas at 4. Texas was the closest of the one loss teams to a perfect season, having a lead with 75 seconds left against Oklahoma.

[dubb93]

Saw this on ESPN and thought it fitting. All credit to David Hale.

In the olden days, we had a beauty contest. The top team in the nation was decided entirely by the voters.

Then we moved to a better system, one determined in part by computers but one that allowed the top two teams to decide it on the field.

Then we moved to a four-team playoff, and the whole point was to eliminate the hypotheticals and let a champion be crowned by the actual results on the field. If you won your games, you had a chance to win a national title.

Turns out, all of that was a charade. None of it mattered. The games are pointless. What happens on the field is less important than what a committee thinks might happen in a future matchup.

It is an absolute slap in the face to every player who has ever put on a helmet, laced up cleats and marched onto the field to battle for a victory, because a bunch of folks in a conference room in Texas decided their sacrifice was not as important as the Las Vegas line on a potential playoff matchup.

It's a joke……

Let's be real about what happened here: The committee members couldn't leave the SEC out of the playoff. They didn't care that Alabama needed a miracle to avoid a loss to 6-6 Auburn two weeks ago. They didn't care that Georgia's own injuries -- playing with a banged-up Ladd McConkey and Brock Bowers -- likely played a large part in why the Tide won Saturday. They didn't care that the ACC has a winning record, head-to-head, against the SEC this season. They didn't care that Alabama beat 2023 Georgia, not 2021 or 2022 Georgia. They cared that Alabama and the SEC had to have a spot in the playoff by birthright. And as a result, they sent a message that what happened on the field -- the blood, tears and sacrifice that players made all season to win every game on their schedule -- was less important than getting the most compelling TV matchup.

[Atocep]

I thought the playoff was bad for the sport from the start and the data has shown it's at best a minimal improvement and more likely a step backwards.

The top two selling points for the playoff was expanded access and better games. Margin of victory between the BCS and playoff really haven't changed and the semi's have had a lot of blowouts. Access has actually shrunk under the playoff format when compared to the BCS.

The only thing the playoff has really accomplished is accelerated the destruction of conferences, traditional rivalries, helped funnel talent to a handful of schools, and made non-playoff bowls mostly pointless.

What's frustrating is that most that had a solid understanding of what made college football work could see it coming. Not some of the finer details of how the sport has evolved during the playoff era, but some of this stuff was very predictable.

[Ksyrup]

I do find it curious that many of the same people who bemoaned the end of the BCS because it was going to render the regular season meaningless and ruin what was most special about CFB are largely the same people going out of their way to explain all the technicalities of why an undefeated team should be bypassed by two 1-loss teams as the most just outcome of the CFP.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

2-0 vs (his) Top 10 for one, 1-0 in the season opener for the other

When a 3-loss LSU is your best opponent, that's a tough sell for having an SoS.

Michigan - 13-0 (56th SoS)
Florida State - 13-0 (62nd SoS)

At the end of the day it comes down to this. If we're cherrypicking top-10 as criteria, Alabama only has one. So why wouldn't they get dinged for that too?

I think Alabama deserves being in because I don't think you should be punished for scheduling tough games. And I do think conference titles should matter. But Michigan and Florida State have very similar resumes and one is seen as the clear cut #1 and the other is #5. That's a decision based on pedigree and not resume.

[Ksyrup]

I wanted to let this go and get my head on straight for a week of work but (a) I just got home and I'm listening to 10 hours of pent up frustration from my daughter, (b) I saw the clip of Greg McElroy, a former Alabama QB, providing arguments in favor of Alabama over FSU - including an apparently un-ironic statement that you can't win a championship with subpar QB play, as a QB who absolutely won a championship as a subpar QB! - and (c) I have to relive the entire thing with Louisville fans tomorrow morning anyway.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

But Michigan and Florida State have very similar resumes

Michigan beat Ohio State and Penn State. And put a season high on Iowa.
FSU beat LSU and ... Louisville?

Those two things are not the same. I

'm not even sure they're the same to Stevie Wonder, but they're certainly not the same to anyone with eyes that's ever seen football.

[tarcone]

PSU put 41 on Iowa, but the point is valid as Iowa's defense is elite.

[Brian Swartz]

The thing that makes the resumes different to my mind is that it's not just about winning and losing, but how you win. Computers don't care about pedigree, and Sagarin has Michigan 1st and Florida State 10th. Howell has Michigan 1st by a sizable margin, and Florida State 5th. SP+ has had Michigan first basically all year.

I expect Michigan to lose to Alabama, but the point is if you look at how they handled inferior teams compared to how Florida State did ... they just aren't the same. Michigan had one game where they really underperformed; against Maryland. Florida State had Boston College, Clemson, Duke, and Miami. Yes the wins are the same, but the overall performances are decidedly not.

Looking at stuff like ACC head to head with SEC in the non-conference is just a poor way of comparing the conferences as well, as is bowl comparisons when those are made. I detest the strong pro-SEC bias that exists, but it is still the best conference in football though not by as much as in previous years.

On the larger controversy, I think there are at least six teams with an argument for making the playoffs this year, and only two (Michigan and Washington) that I'd put as automatic. This is not an issue that will go away with the expanded playoffs. The only possible solution - which almost nobody wants - is a proper competitive structure with enforced balanced conferences, a much smaller amount of teams competing in each level/division/whatever. As long as we have the current situation with conferences and teams doing basically whatever they want in terms of who they play during the season, it's not going to get much better regardless of the playoff format. And given that college football is more popular than ever, it's not really something they have any compelling motive to shake up.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Michigan beat Ohio State and Penn State. And put a season high on Iowa.
FSU beat LSU and ... Louisville?

Those two things are not the same. I

'm not even sure they're the same to Stevie Wonder, but they're certainly not the same to anyone with eyes that's ever seen football.

Just saying every strength of schedule calculation has them pretty close.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

The thing that makes the resumes different to my mind is that it's not just about winning and losing, but how you win. Computers don't care about pedigree, and Sagarin has Michigan 1st and Florida State 10th. Howell has Michigan 1st by a sizable margin, and Florida State 5th. SP+ has had Michigan first basically all year

Sagarin also has Penn State ahead of Alabama.

If it's about how you win, then Alabama should not be in. A miracle hailmary to beat Auburn and being taken to the wire against South Florida and Arkansas is pretty bad.

[Edward64]

I agree Alabama should not have been invited to the party and the SEC got a pass here because of "legacy".

But yeah, wouldn't surprise me if Alabama beat Michigan (and wins it all). I'll be rooting for Michigan, I know they've been waiting for a while now.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I agree Alabama should not have been invited to the party and the SEC got a pass here because of "legacy".

But yeah, wouldn't surprise me if Alabama beat Michigan (and wins it all). I'll be rooting for Michigan, I know they've been waiting for a while now.

I'm all in on Washington. Go you purple Dawgs!

[Ksyrup]

Bowl season never really meant much, but it was a nice way to consume a ton of CFB and put a bow on the season. Now, with everyone either pulling out to prepare for the draft or hitting the portal, bowl season is becoming nothing more than a televised preview of your school's spring scrimmage.

Dillon Gabriel and Kyle McCord both hit the portal this morning. I expect eventually at least 8-10 FSU guys will (Keon Coleman all but said so), as will some bit players looking for a headstart on their next gig (FSUs 4th string QB hit the portal).

I'm all for players doing what's best for them but it's absolutely at odds with what makes CFB so much fun. Reality is sucking the life out of the sport and there's no good fix.

[dubb93]

What’s with all the idiots online arguing that Georgia should be in over Washington? College football is really becoming hard to watch. I agree with bowls. They used to be one of the best times of the sports year. Now it’s all backups besides the CFP and I’m wondering how long before people start sitting that out too.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Reality is sucking the life out of the sport and there's no good fix.

That's the tension. What's best/fair for the players is at odds with what is most fun for the fans.

I also miss how New Year's Day used to have, like, 4 bowls all going at the same time all day long. At some point they realized that was bad for maximizing eyeballs, so we are stuck with pretty much one game at a time, which just does not feel right.

[cartman]

I remember one time in the early 80s, don't remember which year, but New Year's Day ended up being a school day. My parents let me stay home and watch football all day.

[Kodos]

They really should have a portal dead period between the final game of the regular season and the last bowl game. Players leaving before the season is over sucks.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by cartman

I remember one time in the early 80s, don't remember which year, but New Year's Day ended up being a school day. My parents let me stay home and watch football all day.

I think it might have been 1984. New Year's Day was a Sunday, so the bowls would have been pushed to the 2nd on Monday to not conflict with NFL games.

[Ksyrup]

I see ESPN is doubling down on the SEC lovefest. On their college football rankings page, they have FSU and UGA tied for 5th. The committee's official rankings have UGA 6th. And it's not a typo - it shows UGA dropping 4 spots, not 5.

This shit is unreal and out of control. SEC should just be a subsidiary of ESPN at this point.

[cartman]

If Texas beats Washington, they will have avenged this year all 5 of their losses from last year.

[Ksyrup]

Looks like ESPN got enough bad press from the 5th/6th ranking thing that they changed it. Fuckers.

[dubb93]

Why does the transfer portal open up before the season ends. So bizarre. That seems like a pretty easy fix.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by dubb93

What’s with all the idiots online arguing that Georgia should be in over Washington?

Sports fandom has a large proportion of blind emotionalism.

[Ghost Econ]

So if Georgia had won, would the committee have still seeded Texas above FSU? I think by having two 1 loss conference champs in Bama and Texas it gave them cover to jump a crippled FSU team.

I'm not sure the committee would have just jumped Texas over FSU if UGa won. That would have been 4 undefeated P5 champs and would have been better symmetry than 3+1 with an undefeated left out.

[Ksyrup]

I think they would have had the SEC champ in so FSU would have had a far better shot at #4 going up against Texas. Texas was put at #3 strategically so the argument was FSU/Alabama and not Texas/Alabama because that didn't favor the SEC.

And by the way, ESPNs own Strength of Record/Resume metric had FSU #3 and Alabama #4 yesterday. Guess what disappeared from their website?

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Why does the transfer portal open up before the season ends. So bizarre. That seems like a pretty easy fix.

Dillon Gabriel transferring just highlights one of the major problems with college football right now. I don't have any info so I could be wrong, but I doubt this is happening without a nice NIL deal already lined up somewhere.

[sovereignstar v2]

Can Dillon Gabriel go to FSU this month and then Alabama can be kicked the fuck out?

/s

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Why does the transfer portal open up before the season ends. So bizarre. That seems like a pretty easy fix.

So that the coaches that were hired to be head coaches before the season ended to allow them to get an early start on recruiting can know what is available in the transfer portal which is now a huge part of recruiting.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Dillon Gabriel transferring just highlights one of the major problems with college football right now. I don't have any info so I could be wrong, but I doubt this is happening without a nice NIL deal already lined up somewhere.

Possible, but it also may be simply to get a headstart on his choice of schools. The earlier you start the more offers you get to field and more options you have. But yeah, some of these guys already know where they are going. The backdoor recruiting is the same as it was in HS/travel ball.

[rjolley]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Why does the transfer portal open up before the season ends. So bizarre. That seems like a pretty easy fix.

So that the students can enroll in their new school and be ready for classes in January.

Yes, I laughed as typed that out.

[Cuckoo]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Possible, but it also may be simply to get a headstart on his choice of schools. The earlier you start the more offers you get to field and more options you have.

This. It's always been known this would be his last year at Oklahoma, as they're going with 5-star freshman Jackson Arnold next year. Gabriel has one year left, so it was either draft or transfer. Good college QB but not much of a pro prospect.

[miami_fan]

🚨 BREAKING: I am demanding answers and transparency from the @CFBPlayoff Selection Committee following its unprecedented exclusion of @FSUFootball from the playoffs.

Read my letter to Chairman Boo Corrigan ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/D554J82c4S

— Rick Scott (@SenRickScott) December 4, 2023

[albionmoonlight]

One thing that still unites politicians across party lines is loyalty to the area sports team.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Kodos

They really should have a portal dead period between the final game of the regular season and the last bowl game. Players leaving before the season is over sucks.

The problem is the early signing period. That would put teams at a disadvantage not knowing how many players they will lose. As it is, it mostly a disadvantage to the playoff teams because players that are getting play time on those teams tend to hang on longer, and that is fair.

[Noop]

The decision regarding the college football rankings unfairly disadvantaged Florida State. It appears to prioritize popularity over actual season performance. Florida State had an undefeated season, whereas Texas and Alabama did not. Therefore, the debate should have focused on whether Texas or Alabama deserved the number 4 spot, rather than questioning Florida State's standing.

[Thomkal]

Saw Trump blamed DeSantis for not lobbying the Committee enough on FSU's behalf.