The OFFICIAL NHL 2009-10 Offseason Thread

[Maple Leafs]

Originally Posted by Draft Dodger

man, I don't know who this Down Goes Brown guy is, but he's a freaking genius.

Oh god, is it another one of those annoying "Secret Transcript" bits?

[DataKing]

• When you're prompted to enter your name on the opening screen, type in "Jim Balsillie" to unlock an extended slideshow of Gary Bettman giving you the finger.
  

Genius!

[sterlingice]

Dammit- I just frittered away the last half hour in a Wikipedia chain about Taleb and Black Swan Theory.

SI

[RomaGoth]

Sorry, was out of town. Really thinking a hotel would be preferable next time rather than driving back and forth to Philly.

Anyway, I am in.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Thanks to finally getting the NHL Network, I've watched parts of the last two Maple Leafs pre-season games. So far, Kadri has looked really good. He has good hands, decent speed, and is a good passer. He could really develop into a good player. The pairing of Komisarek and Kaberle looks really good as well. With Beauchemin and Schenn rounding out the second pairing, that top 4 defense looks as good as almost any in the leauge. That, also, could mean that Toronto is spending $6.4 million in cap space between their 5th and 6th defensemen in Finger ($3.5M) and Van Ryn ($2.9M).

At the moment, Toronto is spending more on its defense ($25.2M) than it is on its forwards ($22.9M). Considering most teams typically have almost twice as many forwards as defensemen on the roster, I'd be surprised if that's the case for any other team in the NHL.

[Travis]

Haven't checked all the teams, but Edmonton ($22.85) and Calgary ($22.392) aren't far behind Toronto in terms of cap hit going towards their D.

[bbor]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

Thanks to finally getting the NHL Network, I've watched parts of the last two Maple Leafs pre-season games. So far, Kadri has looked really good. He has good hands, decent speed, and is a good passer. He could really develop into a good player. The pairing of Komisarek and Kaberle looks really good as well. With Beauchemin and Schenn rounding out the second pairing, that top 4 defense looks as good as almost any in the leauge. That, also, could mean that Toronto is spending $6.4 million in cap space between their 5th and 6th defensemen in Finger ($3.5M) and Van Ryn ($2.9M).

At the moment, Toronto is spending more on its defense ($25.2M) than it is on its forwards ($22.9M). Considering most teams typically have almost twice as many forwards as defensemen on the roster, I'd be surprised if that's the case for any other team in the NHL.

Kadri did look good but very small...i expect him to 100% be sent back to JR.Bozek and Stalberg looked very very good...both kids can fly.Bozek had a highlight reel goal vs Boston(which was on ESPNs highlights,even more amazing considering ESPN does'nt do hockey and this was a preseason game)Look for them both to make the team along with Christian Hanson.It could be an all US college line.

Jason Allison experiment is dead i hope...he looked slower than before(if possible) and wayyyy out of place.

Garnet Exelby played rock solid.....hope he can keep that up.


Anyone see how Theo Fluery did last night?

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by Travis

Haven't checked all the teams, but Edmonton ($22.85) and Calgary ($22.392) aren't far behind Toronto in terms of cap hit going towards their D.

Detroit is also in the same range. I think budgeting around $20-23 million seems to about right for a good defense.

I just haven't seen any that have quit hit the $25 million mark and none, yet, in which the forwards are being paid less as a group.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by bbor

Kadri did look good but very small...i expect him to 100% be sent back to JR.Bozek and Stalberg looked very very good...both kids can fly.Bozek had a highlight reel goal vs Boston(which was on ESPNs highlights,even more amazing considering ESPN does'nt do hockey and this was a preseason game)Look for them both to make the team along with Christian Hanson.It could be an all US college line.

Jason Allison experiment is dead i hope...he looked slower than before(if possible) and wayyyy out of place.

Garnet Exelby played rock solid.....hope he can keep that up.


Anyone see how Theo Fluery did last night?

Yeah, he did look small, but I wouldn't worry about that. He'll look perfectly normal when they play Montreal.

I saw Bozek's short handed goal. It was a thing of beauty. Starlberg has looked very fast as well.

I've always liked Garnet Exelby. A great hitter, smallish, but tough defender with a funny name.

[DeToxRox]

Thomas Tatar signed with the Wings, he was our 2nd second rounder this year. He's only 18 but he's hoping to go right to the AHL which would be amazing. He still most likely ends up in the OHL though.

[Travis]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

Detroit is also in the same range. I think budgeting around $20-23 million seems to about right for a good defense.

I just haven't seen any that have quit hit the $25 million mark and none, yet, in which the forwards are being paid less as a group.

Colorado is one of the higher one's as well, but it's Atlanta that might be the next closest to paying their D more than their forwards though they're under $20 for both I believe it was.

Either way, I think $18-$20 million is a nice range for the D. I know for sure the Oilers have too much tied up in their D group right now, but that's mostly because they're paying guys in their third pairing $2+ million. That's just silly cap management.

I mean, pay each of your top pairing guys around $5-6, your second pairing guys $3 and your third pairing guys should be $1.5 or less. That's $19-21ish (add in your 7th D man) which gives a bit more freedom up front.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by Travis

I mean, pay each of your top pairing guys around $5-6, your second pairing guys $3 and your third pairing guys should be $1.5 or less. That's $19-21ish (add in your 7th D man) which gives a bit more freedom up front.

I think that's right. It's pretty much how the Wings have handled it. They have Lidstrom/Raflaski at the $6.5-$7 range, Stuart and Kronwall at $3.-$3.75 range, and their last pairing is in the $500K - $1.2 range.

[Fidatelo]

I think it all depends on the quality of your defencemen too, though. If you have a bunch of crappy players, just because the two best crappy guys get 1st line duty doesn't mean you shell out 6+mil for them. There are not 60 6-7 mil d-men in the league.

[Travis]

Originally Posted by Fidatelo

I think it all depends on the quality of your defencemen too, though. If you have a bunch of crappy players, just because the two best crappy guys get 1st line duty doesn't mean you shell out 6+mil for them. There are not 60 6-7 mil d-men in the league.

Oh for sure, that's kind of the "aim" for the end point more than anything. That should be the most expensive you're looking at though really. If you're paying more than that you have to start wondering what other areas you're coming up short in due to mis-allocation of funds/assets.

Ie: the Oilers.

Visnovsky ($5.6) - Souray ($5.4)
Gilbert ($4.0) - Grebeshkov ($3.1)
Staios ($2.7) - Smid ($1.3)
Strudwick ($0.7) - Peckham ($0.56)

Obviously if you're not able to fill up your forward core then yeah, spend the money on short term contracts to fill up the back end, but I'd imagine the Oilers blue line will look more like:

Souray ($5.4) - Gilbert ($4.0)
Grebeshkov ($3.1) - Smid ($1.3)
Peckham ($0.56) - ? (~$1.2)
Strudwick ($0.7)

in the not so distant future. They've essentially got 3 first pairing guys contract wise, a third pairing guy (Staios) who is a #6 at best but getting paid like a 2nd pairing guy and a couple of deals (relatively) in Smid and Peckham right now. Even if you keep Strudwick as your 7th guy and find a #6 for the third pairing making around $1.2 they could have their D core making around $16.26 (with Grebeshkov, Peckham and Strudwick all needing new deals at the end of this season, so bump that number up closer to $19 probably). Just part of the salary cap era that they need to watch (especially with guys like Cogliano and Gagner needing new deals after this season). It's a nice luxury having a blue line that deep, but if they time the contracts poorly length wise it can really bite them in the ass.

[Draft Dodger]

the entire NW division has a lot tied up in defensemen.

last year the Avs got a terrible return on their $20 million. probably won't get much better this year

[RomaGoth]

Originally Posted by DeToxRox

Thomas Tatar signed with the Wings, he was our 2nd second rounder this year. He's only 18 but he's hoping to go right to the AHL which would be amazing. He still most likely ends up in the OHL though.

He is trying to get out of his contract in Europe and play for the Plymouth Whalers in the OHL. Probably won't happen though, as relations between Europe/Russia and the NHL are not real good these days.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by Draft Dodger

the entire NW division has a lot tied up in defensemen.

last year the Avs got a terrible return on their $20 million. probably won't get much better this year

Yeah, that's the real key, having guys play up to or better than their contracts. This will most typically happen to younger players still on their first deal or guys who come into their own a bit later during the second contract. Detroit had it great last year with Zetterberg, Franzen and Ericsson all way out performing their respective contracts.

Assuming he continues to develop as he has, Ericsson is still a bargain and the Wings certainly hope Leino and Bertuzzi will be as well. I am more hopeful about Leino than I am Bertuzzi.

Filppula didn't perform up to his contract last year (during the regular season) and Holmstrom certainly did not during the second half and playoffs.

Looking at Colorado, it's really going to be hard for Hannan, Liles and Clark to out-perform their respective contracts.

[DeToxRox]

Phaneuf kills Okposo.

[RomaGoth]

Originally Posted by DeToxRox

Phaneuf kills Okposo.

Actually looked pretty clean to me. Okposo skating with his head down = bad news. When will these guys learn?

[Sublime 2]

Looks like Kessel traded to the Leafs is official.

Not sure exactly what it looks like but the framework looks to be:

Kessel

for

2 1st rounders
2nd rounder

With possible extra players on each side. Not really what I was hoping for after reading possible rumors of getting Blum and a first from Nashville. Certainly gives the Bruins mucho ammo for a guy I don't think Julien or Chiarelli liked.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Sublime 2

Looks like Kessel traded to the Leafs is official.

Not sure exactly what it looks like but the framework looks to be:

Kessel

for

2 1st rounders
2nd rounder

With possible extra players on each side. Not really what I was hoping for after reading possible rumors of getting Blum and a first from Nashville. Certainly gives the Bruins mucho ammo for a guy I don't think Julien or Chiarelli liked.

2 1sts and a 2nd from a team that likely will miss the playoffs, combined with a 2010 draft class that has 8-9 elite guys and the fact that the Bruins effectively couldn't sign him? Steal. Bruins must be learning from the Patriots.

[RomaGoth]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

2 1sts and a 2nd from a team that likely will miss the playoffs, combined with a 2010 draft class that has 8-9 elite guys and the fact that the Bruins effectively couldn't sign him? Steal. Bruins must be learning from the Patriots.

And the Maple Leafs must be learning from the Raiders.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by RomaGoth

And the Maple Leafs must be learning from the Raiders.

Learning from? See: John Fletcher Jr., Cliff Fletcher. Surprising to see Brian Burke added to the list. Especially considering Phil Kessel is in the dictionary as an antonym of truculent.

[Maple Leafs]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

combined with a 2010 draft class that has 8-9 elite guys

Everything I've read says the 2010 draft is weak after Hall, and 2011 is worse.

Still, this is a lot to give up. I'm trying hard to like this, but... man.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Maple Leafs

Everything I've read says the 2010 draft is weak after Hall, and 2011 is worse.

Still, this is a lot to give up. I'm trying hard to like this, but... man.

I was basing it off one quick TSN video, so they're probably just trying to sell page views. I do find it hard to see how well they can predict a draft 2 years away, but I'll defer to those more expert than I.

[bbor]

Pretty eh on this trade....but with the addition of Kessel i can't see the picks being top 10.

[samifan24]

As a Bruins fan I'm happy with the Kessel deal. He never had a future in Boston after what transpired this off-season. I wish him well but I'll take the picks from Toronto. I do wish the Bruins had received a body back, too.

As for the Phaneuf hit, I thought it was clean, too. Okposo is a good player but he had his head down. Morency looks like a classless thug trying to make a name for himself by jumping over the boards like that. Drop your gloves while a guy's back is turned? Nice.

[Pyser]

the trade is one thing, but 27m is another....thats a lot of scratch

[Sublime 2]

Originally Posted by bbor

Pretty eh on this trade....but with the addition of Kessel i can't see the picks being top 10.

I think you may be overvaluing Thrill a bit here and don't forget he's coming back from surgery.

Of course I'm a B's fan (and fairly anti-Kessel) so I hope it's top 10!

[bbor]

I don;t think i am overvaluing Kessel....i actually am not a big fan of his at all....but...the Leafs now have a solid defence.....and if they can score between 2 and 3 goals a game as a team they will win more than enough to get into the 6-8 play-off spot.I think between Kessel and some of the kids from the us college ranks they could have enough to give a few teams troubles.Will they win a cup...no.....is it a huge improvment over the past 3 years...Hell yes.

So...The Leafs gave the Bees 2 1st and a second....yet if they had signed him as a rfa it would have only cost them a 1 a 2 and 3....I take it this was done to keep Kessels contract down????

[samifan24]

I think the biggest knocks on Kessel, especially last season and this summer, are that a) he has a reputation as a soft player and b) he has a reputation for being a whiner/not listening to coaches. Obviously as a Bruins fan I'm more inclined to agree with both given that his play last season, at times, was indicative of both being a soft player and not responding to coaching (as far as the team's broadcasters and reporters could point it out).

It will be interesting to see how Phil adapts to Toronto. He needs a very good passer and good skater as the centerman on his line and ideally a very physical player (ala Lucic) on the other wing. It will also be interesting to see if Kessel responds to coaching more than he did while in Boston. Julien did a great job with the team last year and seemingly got the entire roster to buy into the team's philosophy but there were still times when you would just shake your head because Kessel, while a great goalscorer, would make questionable decisions.

He's a great goal scorer but needs to shed his reputation as a soft, sometimes uncoachable player to truly be great.

[Fidatelo]

Okposo hit looks clean, but it's a friggin' pre-season game. I know, I know, "keep your head up", "this is the NHL", yada yada... Phaneuf went out of his way to destroy a guy in a meaningless game, and clean or not, it's not real classy.

[johnnyshaka]

Originally Posted by Fidatelo

Okposo hit looks clean, but it's a friggin' pre-season game. I know, I know, "keep your head up", "this is the NHL", yada yada... Phaneuf went out of his way to destroy a guy in a meaningless game, and clean or not, it's not real classy.

And then wouldn't even drop his mitts...that's what drives me batty about the whole thing. You don't have to stand toe to toe and start throwing bombs but at least take your damn gloves off and defend yourself like a man.

[Dr. Sak]

Originally Posted by Maple Leafs

Everything I've read says the 2010 draft is weak after Hall, and 2011 is worse.

Still, this is a lot to give up. I'm trying hard to like this, but... man.

I tried to use that line earlier when the Flyers traded next year's first for Pronger!

[Maple Leafs]

Originally Posted by Fidatelo

Okposo hit looks clean, but it's a friggin' pre-season game. I know, I know, "keep your head up", "this is the NHL", yada yada... Phaneuf went out of his way to destroy a guy in a meaningless game, and clean or not, it's not real classy.

I'm surprised more people aren't talking about the Flames that pushes Okposo from behind right before impact. Maybe not technically dirty but doesn't that seem like a dirty play?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Maple Leafs

I'm surprised more people aren't talking about the Flames that pushes Okposo from behind right before impact. Maybe not technically dirty but doesn't that seem like a dirty play?

Yeah, I noticed that, too. I didn't want to get into it, though, so I didn't bring it up.

[Draft Dodger]

Originally Posted by johnnyshaka

And then wouldn't even drop his mitts...that's what drives me batty about the whole thing. You don't have to stand toe to toe and start throwing bombs but at least take your damn gloves off and defend yourself like a man.

this would be my position as well.

[RomaGoth]

The Blackhawks bad luck continues:

Chicago Blackhawks forward Adam Burish will undergo knee surgery and miss six months - ESPN Chicago

[Maple Leafs]

Las Vegas sets the over/under for total points:

Anaheim Ducks 96.5
Atlanta Thrashers 80.5
Boston Bruins 101.5
Buffalo Sabres 91.5
Calgary Flames 96.5
Carolina Hurricanes 94.5
Chicago Blackhawks 105.5
Colorado Avalanche 72.5
Columbus Blue Jackets 86.5
Dallas Stars 89.5
Detroit Red Wings 106.5
Edmonton Oilers 89.5
Florida Panthers 87.5
Los Angeles Kings 86.5
Minnesota Wild 88.5
Montreal Canadiens 93.5
Nashville Predators 84.5
New Jersey Devils 96.5
New York Islanders 70.5
New York Rangers 91.5
Ottawa Senators 83.5
Philadelphia Flyers 102.5
Phoenix Coyotes 72.5
Pittsburgh Penguins 102.5
San Jose Sharks 107.5
St. Louis Blues 91.5
Tampa Bay Lightning 85.5
Toronto Maple Leafs 85.5
Vancouver Canucks 96.5
Washington Capitals 104.5

Who you got? What's your lock?

[Dr. Sak]

Under - Rangers & Jersey

[Logan]

Devils under 96.5 is a certainty.

edit: Like Sak, I came close to saying the Rangers as well. I think both teams will be in the high 80s, maybe squeezing into the 90s. But that's close enough where I couldn't call the Rangers a lock.

[RomaGoth]

Coyotes and Islanders under.

[Honolulu_Blue]

I think Detroit slips under 106 this year.

[DeToxRox]

Chicago and Detroit will be under. The Central is going to be too good top to bottom for two teams to crack over 105 points.

[RomaGoth]

Olie the goalie retired today. I never considered him an elite goalie, but he was definitely in the top 15 during his prime.

Veteran goaltender Olaf Kolzig retires after 14 seasons in NHL - ESPN

[Maple Leafs]

My picks:
Chicago – Under (lock)
Ottawa – Over
Penguins – Over
Islanders – Over
Oilers – Under
Panthers - Under (bonus lock)

[DeToxRox]

Originally Posted by Maple Leafs

My picks:
Chicago – Under (lock)
Ottawa – Over
Penguins – Over
Islanders – Over
Oilers – Under
Panthers - Under (bonus lock)

I give you Tavares at 65 points. Over/under?

[Maple Leafs]

Originally Posted by DeToxRox

I give you Tavares at 65 points. Over/under?

I'd go under, but that line's about right.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by DeToxRox

I give you Tavares at 65 points. Over/under?

Under.

[JPhillips]

I'll take the under on Washington. The goaltending is going to go through spotty periods. Varly is going to be good, but he has conditioning issues, Neuvirth hasn't been tested in the NHL and Theodore is going to have a rough time dealing with the loss of his child. Add in Semin's inevitable injury and the need for a substantial increase in second line scoring and I don't think they'll get to 105.